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2021 Draft Signing Period
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 27, 2021 7:47:48 GMT -5
Is this being reported anywhere other than Gammons Twitter account?
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jul 27, 2021 8:26:05 GMT -5
Per Sportrac there are 7 unsigned draft picks in the first two rounds of the 2021 MLB draft. This list includes Leiter, Lawlor, Rocker, House and Watson in the first tound. The bulk of the overslot bonuses paid in the 2nd round were by teams which went significantly under slot in round 1. www.spotrac.com/mlb/draft/ |
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Post by jchang on Jul 27, 2021 8:38:08 GMT -5
Per Sportrac there are 7 unsigned draft picks in the first two rounds of the 2021 MLB draft. This list includes Leiter, Lawlor, Rocker, House and Watson in the first tound. The bulk of the overslot bonuses paid in the 2nd round were by teams which went significantly under slot in round 1. www.spotrac.com/mlb/draft/there were several over-slots in the 3rd round as well, notably PIT - $3M vs slot 870K, so with the 1.9M underslot in Davis, Pit was able to get 2 players ranked 21 or better, not a bad strategy with the 1-1 |
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Post by incandenza on Jul 27, 2021 9:09:15 GMT -5
This is somewhat dated but it's a list of players that didn't sign and what they got afterwards. Most interesting one was Brady Aiken who turned down 40% of his slot (medical issues) then got much less later from the Indians (for those of you who are too young to remember, that's the old name for the Guardians). Astros picked Bregman the next year for that slot. www.baseballamerica.com/stories/what-has-happened-to-top-picks-who-failed-to-sign/The kicker:
What I want to do is grab Fabian (or any of these other guys) by the collar and say: "You are incredibly lucky! I know you think your success is due to your own hard work, because you wouldn't have gotten where you are without it, and that if you just keep working hard you will surely improve your position next time around. But life is not required to conform itself to your own sense of what you deserve; your hand-eye coordination could deteriorate some tiny amount; you could get injured; you might just not be as good as you think you are. And yet someone is offering you $2.5 million because they think there is maybe a 15% chance you will succeed as one of the top 0.01% of performers in this line of work. If a year from now you are merely in the top 0.02% you get nothing."
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Post by jackiebradleyjrjr on Jul 27, 2021 9:28:54 GMT -5
Let's at least just wait until the end of the week before we start burning things. Please? I'm not burning anything, I just hate that. It's such a cop-out to say that the people in charge know what they are doing. Why be a fan then? Form your own opinions. Even Bill Belichick deserves to get criticized for deals he does and doesn't make. Chaim Bloom is certainly not above that. You’re putting way too much into a Peter Gammons tweet— talk about the blind leading the blind. |
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 27, 2021 9:31:12 GMT -5
I'm not burning anything, I just hate that. It's such a cop-out to say that the people in charge know what they are doing. Why be a fan then? Form your own opinions. Even Bill Belichick deserves to get criticized for deals he does and doesn't make. Chaim Bloom is certainly not above that. You’re putting way too much into a Peter Gammons tweet— talk about the blind leading the blind. I like Peter Gammons, I really do. But if it's coming from Peter Gammons.........and only Peter Gammons. IDK, gives one pause. I don't think he's making stuff up but why isn't anyone else saying anything? One has to think this is Fabians camp just posturing, which doesn't mean he's going to sign......it just means it's not set in stone. I'll wait until the 1st. |
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Post by jchang on Jul 27, 2021 9:55:06 GMT -5
This is somewhat dated but it's a list of players that didn't sign and what they got afterwards. Most interesting one was Brady Aiken who turned down 40% of his slot (medical issues) then got much less later from the Indians (for those of you who are too young to remember, that's the old name for the Guardians). Astros picked Bregman the next year for that slot. www.baseballamerica.com/stories/what-has-happened-to-top-picks-who-failed-to-sign/The kicker:
What I want to do is grab Fabian (or any of these other guys) by the collar and say: "You are incredibly lucky! I know you think your success is due to your own hard work, because you wouldn't have gotten where you are without it, and that if you just keep working hard you will surely improve your position next time around. But life is not required to conform itself to your own sense of what you deserve; your hand-eye coordination could deteriorate some tiny amount; you could get injured; you might just not be as good as you think you are. And yet someone is offering you $2.5 million because they think there is maybe a 15% chance you will succeed as one of the top 0.01% of performers in this line of work. If a year from now you are merely in the top 0.02% you get nothing."
We should try to find Matt Harrington to talks to Fabian. btw, in the 2000 draft in which Matt was drafted 1-7, were : Adrian Gonzalez (1-1, 3M bonus, 43.5 bWAR) Chase Utley (1-15, 1.78M, 64.5 bWAR) Adam Wainwright (1-29, 1.25M, 41.8 bWAR) Grady Sizemore (3-76, 2M, 27.8 bWAR) Cliff Lee (4-105, 43.2 bWAR) Yadier Molina (4-113, 41.2 bWAR) Brandon Webb (8th, 31.1) and Edwin Encarnacion (9th, 35.4) the MLB 2000 draft bonus winner was Joe Borchard at 5.3M, -1.5 bWAR , several years in MLB, no big free agent contract, so perhaps Harrington's (agent's) demand of 4.5M might not have been too extravagant |
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Post by borisman on Jul 27, 2021 11:10:26 GMT -5
I'm curious which teams offered him $3M. KC? Colorado? I'd include Baltimore but they don't seem to have a plan.
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Post by arquimedezbozo on Jul 27, 2021 11:12:14 GMT -5
The kicker:
What I want to do is grab Fabian (or any of these other guys) by the collar and say: "You are incredibly lucky! I know you think your success is due to your own hard work, because you wouldn't have gotten where you are without it, and that if you just keep working hard you will surely improve your position next time around. But life is not required to conform itself to your own sense of what you deserve; your hand-eye coordination could deteriorate some tiny amount; you could get injured; you might just not be as good as you think you are. And yet someone is offering you $2.5 million because they think there is maybe a 15% chance you will succeed as one of the top 0.01% of performers in this line of work. If a year from now you are merely in the top 0.02% you get nothing."
We should try to find Matt Harrington to talks to Fabian. btw, in the 2000 draft in which Matt was drafted 1-7, were : Adrian Gonzalez (1-1, 3M bonus, 43.5 bWAR) Chase Utley (1-15, 1.78M, 64.5 bWAR) Adam Wainwright (1-29, 1.25M, 41.8 bWAR) Grady Sizemore (3-76, 2M, 27.8 bWAR) Cliff Lee (4-105, 43.2 bWAR) Yadier Molina (4-113, 41.2 bWAR) Brandon Webb (8th, 31.1) and Edwin Encarnacion (9th, 35.4) the MLB 2000 draft bonus winner was Joe Borchard at 5.3M, -1.5 bWAR , several years in MLB, no big free agent contract, so perhaps Harrington's (agent's) demand of 4.5M might not have been too extravagant Unlike Karsten Whitson, who claims that he has no regrets, Harrington certainly has some. That being said, he did have an insurance policy that paid off (I’m guessing that Fabian will get one too) and also reached some kind of settlement with his former agent, so at least he was able to recoup something out of a bad situation. www.espn.com/espn/eticket/story?page=090423/harringtonIf that isn’t a cautionary tale for Fabian, I don’t know what is. In both cases, it really seems like malpractice by the agent/advisor and it’s not tough to envision Fabian being added to this conversation down the road, if he does indeed refuse to sign (I’m still skeptical). That being said, Mark Appel refusing to sign in 2012 makes even less sense to me, even though he ultimately managed to score an extra $350k in 2013 (vs what he reportedly turned down from the Astros in 2012 ($6M), resulting in them passing on him). He fortunately dodged the injury bullet that eventually found its target a few years later. He’s now attempting a comeback with the Phils with some rather discouraging results. |
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Post by jchang on Jul 27, 2021 11:23:28 GMT -5
I'm curious which teams offered him $3M. KC? Colorado? I'd include Baltimore but they don't seem to have a plan. KC at pick 43, MLB rank 46 signed to just under 3M. PIT at pick 72, MLB rank 21 signed to 3M. So Fabian could argue some comparable draftees signed at that amount, but there were also others highly ranked who signed for less, ranks 9 and 19 both signed for 2.5M. But the main distinction is that the Sox cannot go to 3M without incurring a significant penalty, so far most teams seem to be staying inside the pool limits |
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 27, 2021 11:32:55 GMT -5
Baltimore, KC and maybe the Angels are the only teams that went under slot enough in the first to offer Fabian $3 million. Plus Pittsburgh, who picked before Boston but could have paid him in the third.
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Post by arquimedezbozo on Jul 27, 2021 11:41:56 GMT -5
I'm curious which teams offered him $3M. KC? Colorado? I'd include Baltimore but they don't seem to have a plan. KC at pick 43, MLB rank 46 signed to just under 3M. PIT at pick 72, MLB rank 21 signed to 3M. So Fabian could argue some comparable draftees signed at that amount, but there were also others highly ranked who signed for less, ranks 9 and 19 both signed for 2.5M. But the main distinction is that the Sox cannot go to 3M without incurring a significant penalty, so far most teams seem to be staying inside the pool limits They were also high schoolers, Chandler a 2-sport commit. Even as a young junior with the extra Covid year, it just doesn’t feel like Fabian has the same kind of leverage but I don’t see any obvious comps and maybe he knows something we don’t know? |
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 27, 2021 11:45:58 GMT -5
I'm with some of the other on here. I'm going to take Gammons tweet with a grain of salt. Nobody else has reported it except for him. Not saying he won't be correct in the end but we still have 4 days for negotiations to come up with a middle ground.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 27, 2021 11:47:48 GMT -5
Fabian doesn't necessarily need to be acting super rationally here. A lot of negotiations have broken off because one party got mad. One can imagine getting extremely salty over Boston taking you one spot ahead of Baltimore who promise you $750k more or something.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 27, 2021 11:54:12 GMT -5
Baltimore, KC and maybe the Angels are the only teams that went under slot enough in the first to offer Fabian $3 million. Plus Pittsburgh, who picked before Boston but could have paid him in the third. Incidentally, this is a good reason to not want to go underslot with a high draft pick. Suppose you're the Orioles and were saving up for a later overslot deal. Who would you spend the savings on if Fabian got plucked in front of you? There are only 2 or 3 other real potential overslot targets that could conceivably be worht it (Joshua Baez, Bubba Chandler?), and if you don't like them or they don't fall to you you've punted on your first pick for nothing. |
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Post by vokuhila on Jul 27, 2021 12:17:12 GMT -5
Fabian doesn't necessarily need to be acting super rationally here. A lot of negotiations have broken off because one party got mad. One can imagine getting extremely salty over Boston taking you one spot ahead of Baltimore who promise you $750k more or something. We don't know his motivation and we probably never will, but it certainly feels a bit "off". On a scale from 0 to "my dream draft" reality was be pretty high up there. A big market team that is probably in a position to compete once you reach the majors offers you an over-slot life-altering amount of money...i mean...what else were you looking for. We don't know what his financial background is, but leaving this much money on the table is...bold... |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 27, 2021 12:20:35 GMT -5
Baltimore, KC and maybe the Angels are the only teams that went under slot enough in the first to offer Fabian $3 million. Plus Pittsburgh, who picked before Boston but could have paid him in the third. Incidentally, this is a good reason to not want to go underslot with a high draft pick. Suppose you're the Orioles and were saving up for a later overslot deal. Who would you spend the savings on if Fabian got plucked in front of you? There are only 2 or 3 other real potential overslot targets that could conceivably be worht it (Joshua Baez, Bubba Chandler?), and if you don't like them or they don't fall to you you've punted on your first pick for nothing. There are bros who could have been picked on Day 3 to absorb the extra cash, like some of the guys the Sox picked (e.g. Hood, Green, Guerrero) at least one of whom could absorb a big chunk of Fabian's cap if Jud stays in Gainesville. I'm sure Kavadas's agent is waiting to see what happens too.
Give me Hickey over Fabian anyway (for the relative cost, of course). I prefer to have the hit tool in place, rather than bet that it will come along somehow despite the kid having done almost nothing his entire life but swing a bat. If we're really that close to a universal DH (let alone robot umps), the market for bat-first prospects will automatically double.
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Post by theaveragefan88 on Jul 27, 2021 12:26:48 GMT -5
I do think it's crazy how so many people in here were excited about Fabian when we drafted him and called it great value and now those same people are bringing up the k-rate and waxing poetic about a future unmade pick.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 27, 2021 12:27:12 GMT -5
Moving to a different guy, I liked Tyler Miller (whose head shot screams "country strong") already but I like him even more seeing that he took exact slot ($160,300). "Where do I sign, bro? I'm here to play ball, not do math!"
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 27, 2021 12:30:15 GMT -5
I do think it's crazy how so many people in here were excited about Fabian when we drafted him and called it great value and now those same people are bringing up the k-rate and waxing poetic about a future unmade pick. It's going to be very exhausting for them if Fabian and the Sox end up coming to an agreement at the last minute. |
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Post by incandenza on Jul 27, 2021 12:32:53 GMT -5
I do think it's crazy how so many people in here were excited about Fabian when we drafted him and called it great value and now those same people are bringing up the k-rate and waxing poetic about a future unmade pick. Are you sure it's "those same people"? Are you sure that's actually what they're saying? |
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 27, 2021 13:03:16 GMT -5
Fabian doesn't necessarily need to be acting super rationally here. A lot of negotiations have broken off because one party got mad. One can imagine getting extremely salty over Boston taking you one spot ahead of Baltimore who promise you $750k more or something. If it makes him mad that he can't go to Baltimore than I don't want him. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 27, 2021 13:05:16 GMT -5
Meanwhile, in New York:
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Post by incandenza on Jul 27, 2021 13:11:36 GMT -5
Ah, it was hard to square Rocker falling to the Mets with LOLMets inevitability, one of the basic laws of the universe. But now we know: all is right with the world.
ADD: I really don't get what the Mets are doing here. They already signed all their other draft picks, many of whom were underslot (presumably so they could afford Rocker); it's not like they have an insurance option to fall back on if they don't sign Rocker. Yes, they'd get the #11 pick next year but there's no guarantee they'd get anyone as good as Rocker with that pick.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 27, 2021 13:15:13 GMT -5
I do think it's crazy how so many people in here were excited about Fabian when we drafted him and called it great value and now those same people are bringing up the k-rate and waxing poetic about a future unmade pick. Kind of funny - this isn't wrong. Perfectly human behavior to be sure though. Although i guess it could just be the faceless masses and the actual speakers aren't the same. Just a few other thoughts that have popped into my head over the course of this conversation: 1) We don't know what the Red Sox have offered. We just know that Gammons has said he had 2 teams that were ready to give him $3M (which I heard at least one team was ready to do, and I think some of you are on the right path...), and the Red Sox literally can't give him $3M. 2) Even if they're only offering him, say, $2M, it's bold for him to turn that down. Maybe it's a principle thing, but he's going to have to be like a top 20 pick next year to justify this gamble unless the Red Sox are really lowballing him. I figure they at least should be offering like $2.3 or $2.4, which was roughly picks 29-31-level money in this year's draft. If you go back for a year, you'd hope to bump that way up, not go back to get $100k more, as many have noted. 3) Thinking it through, this seems pretty agent-driven, as it'd be more useful to the agency to make clear teams shouldn't pop their guys when they have deals with other teams who are picking later. But that said... 4) If any college junior could pull this off, it might be Fabian this year. He's super young and still has his COVID year of eligibility to use as leverage next year. He's essentially a draft-eligible sophomore but even younger. For those saying he doesn't really have leverage, I'd disagree - he definitely does. Even a typical DE soph, who is 21, has the knock against them that they'd be an old junior the following year. Fabian is in the opposite position. 5) I don't think I'm rationalizing here, but while it'd be disappointing not to add Fabian to the system, I don't think this is a disaster. Frankly, it might be a real boon to have pick 41 next year, when they're picking near the back of the round and can use that extra pool money to throw around in a draft where they're not going to add a blue-chip talent on Mayer's level. Maybe that's the idea behind swinging for the fences at 40 - they were playing with house money to some degree at that point, so why not? 6) To be clear, they definitely talked with Fabian's camp. He was at a workout at Fenway with House and I think either Davis or Watson? Longenhagen mentioned it on Goldstein's podcast. |
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