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2021 Draft Signing Period
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 13, 2021 14:44:53 GMT -5
The deadline to sign players is August 1 at 5pm ET.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,607
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Post by radiohix on Jul 13, 2021 14:46:22 GMT -5
When Mike Andrews drops his signing bonuses estimations?
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 13, 2021 14:47:57 GMT -5
I defer to Mike's predictions, but if I had to guess, I would assume everyone except for Payton Green (and maybe Josh Hood) signs. I don't have a read on Ehrhard or the JC guys, but seems likely they sign on first impression.
It'll be very interesting to see how all these guys are added to the system. Maybe a few cuts and maybe a few just do conditioning and scrimmaging.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 13, 2021 14:54:42 GMT -5
I defer to Mike's predictions, but if I had to guess, I would assume everyone except for Payton Green (and maybe Josh Hood) signs. I don't have a read on Ehrhard or the JC guys, but seems likely they sign on first impression. It'll be very interesting to see how all these guys are added to the system. Maybe a few cuts and maybe a few just do conditioning and scrimmaging. This is my read as well. I could see Kavadas and Guerrero potentially commanding $200k, as well. |
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 13, 2021 14:57:58 GMT -5
When Mike Andrews drops his signing bonuses estimations? Shortly. |
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 13, 2021 15:01:30 GMT -5
I defer to Mike's predictions, but if I had to guess, I would assume everyone except for Payton Green (and maybe Josh Hood) signs. I don't have a read on Ehrhard or the JC guys, but seems likely they sign on first impression. It'll be very interesting to see how all these guys are added to the system. Maybe a few cuts and maybe a few just do conditioning and scrimmaging. This is my read as well. I could see Kavadas and Guerrero potentially commanding $200k, as well. Kavadas is a Senior - I can't see how he's commanding more than $125k from the 11th round |
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 13, 2021 15:07:04 GMT -5
This is my read as well. I could see Kavadas and Guerrero potentially commanding $200k, as well. Kavadas is a Senior - I can't see how he's commanding more than $125k from the 11th round Yeah, his option is what besides retiring from baseball? |
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 13, 2021 15:15:24 GMT -5
Here are my "super wicked early speculative gut-check predictions" for the 2021 signing season. I don't have any inside info behind this yet, these predictions are just based on gut feel and years of history of making these projections. These initial guesstimates have usually been pretty solid in years past, but they're just that - projections with a significant amount of possible variability. Feedback is welcome and appreciated. I will update from time to time as more info comes in and as opinions evolve.
Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)
Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus
1 Marcelo Mayer $7,000,000
2 Jud Fabian $2,000,000
3 Tyler McDonough $831,100 (slot)
4 Elmer Rodriguez $300,000
5 Nathan Hickey $410,100 (slot)
6 Daniel McElveny $250,000
7 Wyatt Olds $150,000
8 Hunter Dobbins $150,000
9 Tyler Miller $150,000
10 Matt Litwicki $150,000
After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap)
11 Niko Kavadas $400,000 ($275k towards cap)
13 Zach Ehrhard $150,000 ($25k over cap)
After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap)
12 Christopher Troye
14 Jacob Webb
18 Phillip Sikes
Total spent towards cap using these projections: $11,691,200
Red Sox Cap: $11,359,600
Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $11,927,580
Super wicked early projected not to sign
Vela, Guerrero, Uberstine, and Hood could all sign if there is roster space. Green appears unlikely.
15 Payton Green
16 BJ Vela
17 Luis Guerrero
19 Tyler Uberstine
20 Josh Hood
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 13, 2021 15:15:25 GMT -5
Lowell would have been fun to watch with all these college position players😩
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 13, 2021 15:16:42 GMT -5
Kavadas is a Senior - I can't see how he's commanding more than $125k from the 11th round Yeah, his option is what besides retiring from baseball? He can use his extra year of eligibility all seniors were given due to COVID to return to school. He's probably not all too incentivized to do so but the slot values for the picks around where he was ranked range from 300k to 400k so I can see him squeezing a little more out. |
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 13, 2021 15:18:46 GMT -5
Here are my "super wicked early speculative gut-check predictions" for the 2021 signing season. I don't have any inside info behind this yet, these predictions are just based on gut feel and years of history of making these projections. These initial guesstimates have usually been pretty solid in years past, but they're just that - projections with a significant amount of possible variability. Feedback is welcome and appreciated. I will update from time to time as more info comes in and as opinions evolve. Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)
Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus1 Marcelo Mayer $7,000,000 2 Jud Fabian $2,000,000 3 Tyler McDonough $831,100 (slot) 4 Elmer Rodriguez $300,000 5 Nathan Hickey $410,100 (slot) 6 Daniel McElveny $250,000 7 Wyatt Olds $150,000 8 Hunter Dobbins $150,000 9 Tyler Miller $150,000 10 Matt Litwicki $150,000 After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap)11 Niko Kavadas $400,000 ($275k towards cap) 13 Zach Ehrhard $150,000 ($25k over cap) After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap)12 Christopher Troye 14 Jacob Webb 18 Phillip Sikes Total spent towards cap using these projections: $11,691,200 Red Sox Cap: $11,359,600 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $11,927,580 Super wicked early projected not to signVela, Guerrero, Uberstine, and Hood could all sign if there is roster space. Green appears unlikely.15 Payton Green 16 BJ Vela 17 Luis Guerrero 19 Tyler Uberstine 20 Josh Hood You really think Kavadas can command more than $125k? I get that he's good, but he's a senior sign in the 11th round. |
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Post by incandenza on Jul 13, 2021 15:28:57 GMT -5
It'll be interesting to see what Davis, Leiter, and Jobe sign for. That might offer some insight into how the Sox got Mayer.
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badfishnbc
Veteran
Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 516
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Post by badfishnbc on Jul 13, 2021 15:44:35 GMT -5
Yeah, his option is what besides retiring from baseball? He can use his extra year of eligibility all seniors were given due to COVID to return to school. He's probably not all too incentivized to do so but the slot values for the picks around where he was ranked range from 300k to 400k so I can see him squeezing a little more out. But if he does that, he's turning 24 during the fall instructs. Isn't that... old?? |
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 13, 2021 15:58:33 GMT -5
I'd be a little surprised if the college guy who pitched in the mlb draft league + the JuCo guys all didn't sign. Especially Uberstine, the college pitcher from Northwestern.
edit: From the Toboni comments that just got re-tweeted, maybe it sounds like the Sox aren't thinking they'll sign all of them.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2021 16:51:01 GMT -5
It's a matter of space. We'll see what they do though. They do also plan to be active with the UDFAs (and for 20k, why not?).
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Post by orion09 on Jul 13, 2021 17:00:38 GMT -5
Here are my "super wicked early speculative gut-check predictions" for the 2021 signing season. I don't have any inside info behind this yet, these predictions are just based on gut feel and years of history of making these projections. These initial guesstimates have usually been pretty solid in years past, but they're just that - projections with a significant amount of possible variability. Feedback is welcome and appreciated. I will update from time to time as more info comes in and as opinions evolve. Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)
Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus1 Marcelo Mayer $7,000,000 2 Jud Fabian $2,000,000 3 Tyler McDonough $831,100 (slot) 4 Elmer Rodriguez $300,000 5 Nathan Hickey $410,100 (slot) 6 Daniel McElveny $250,000 7 Wyatt Olds $150,000 8 Hunter Dobbins $150,000 9 Tyler Miller $150,000 10 Matt Litwicki $150,000 After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap)11 Niko Kavadas $400,000 ($275k towards cap) 13 Zach Ehrhard $150,000 ($25k over cap) After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap)12 Christopher Troye 14 Jacob Webb 18 Phillip Sikes Total spent towards cap using these projections: $11,691,200 Red Sox Cap: $11,359,600 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $11,927,580 Super wicked early projected not to signVela, Guerrero, Uberstine, and Hood could all sign if there is roster space. Green appears unlikely.15 Payton Green 16 BJ Vela 17 Luis Guerrero 19 Tyler Uberstine 20 Josh Hood Do you think Litwicki gets $150k? He’s a college senior, so I thought they might have a chance for big savings there. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 13, 2021 17:04:32 GMT -5
Here are my "super wicked early speculative gut-check predictions" for the 2021 signing season. I don't have any inside info behind this yet, these predictions are just based on gut feel and years of history of making these projections. These initial guesstimates have usually been pretty solid in years past, but they're just that - projections with a significant amount of possible variability. Feedback is welcome and appreciated. I will update from time to time as more info comes in and as opinions evolve. Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)
Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus1 Marcelo Mayer $7,000,000 2 Jud Fabian $2,000,000 3 Tyler McDonough $831,100 (slot) 4 Elmer Rodriguez $300,000 5 Nathan Hickey $410,100 (slot) 6 Daniel McElveny $250,000 7 Wyatt Olds $150,000 8 Hunter Dobbins $150,000 9 Tyler Miller $150,000 10 Matt Litwicki $150,000 After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap)11 Niko Kavadas $400,000 ($275k towards cap) 13 Zach Ehrhard $150,000 ($25k over cap) After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap)12 Christopher Troye 14 Jacob Webb 18 Phillip Sikes Total spent towards cap using these projections: $11,691,200 Red Sox Cap: $11,359,600 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $11,927,580 Super wicked early projected not to signVela, Guerrero, Uberstine, and Hood could all sign if there is roster space. Green appears unlikely.15 Payton Green 16 BJ Vela 17 Luis Guerrero 19 Tyler Uberstine 20 Josh Hood You really think Kavadas can command more than $125k? I get that he's good, but he's a senior sign in the 11th round. He's got an extra year of eligibility but it seems unlikely that he would use it.
It's not like he's going to go back and thrust himself into a much higher ranking than he's already had (when he still dropped to the "leftovers" in the 11th round). Even if he went back and set college HR records, people would say "Well yeah, but that's college pitching and he's older than everybody."
I can see $250k but $400k seems a little rich.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 13, 2021 17:05:08 GMT -5
I miss the days of the 5-10K senior signs. Although I don't miss the same days of blatant nepotism picks (I think the GM of the White Sox drafted his granddaughter 10-15 years ago in the 47th/48th round)
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Post by chrisfromnc on Jul 13, 2021 21:31:01 GMT -5
For a couple reasons, it thrills me that the signing period ends August 1 at 5:00 pm.
First, I’m generally an impatient person. Following minor league prospects essentially goes against the grain for people like me who crave more immediate gratification. But I follow prospects anyway because the patience I’m forced to exercise is tremendously rewarding when a player makes a MLB debut when I’ve been interested in him for like 4 years. Its one of my favorite things about baseball.The old summer-follow system and even the more recent slightly less lengthy signing periods were both interminably long for me. The fact that we only need to wait a couple weeks for the signings to shake out is awesome.
Also, not having a deadline at midnight is so much better. What doofus ever thought up the midnight deadline? The “Business day” ends at 5:00 pm. We literally won’t have to lose any sleep on August 1st if we want to come back to this exact thread to post our thoughts and opinions about the final version of the 2021 draft class.
Nice job Rob Manfred. Seriously.
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Post by nufced on Jul 14, 2021 1:58:39 GMT -5
I miss the days of the 5-10K senior signs. Although I don't miss the same days of blatant nepotism picks (I think the GM of the White Sox drafted his granddaughter 10-15 years ago in the 47th/48th round) Found it. In 2015, the White Sox selected Carey Schueler, daughter of GM Ron Schueler, in the 43rd round. First woman ever selected in the MLB draft. |
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 14, 2021 4:35:21 GMT -5
The thing that doesn’t make sense about this, is how much it actually makes sense.
It would appear that Mayer and Fabian would command much higher signing bonuses, but we know (or at least it’s very fair to assume) that the Sox aren’t burning a 1st 2nd rd pick on a guy if they can’t sign them.
The best logical explanation is one of, or both Mayer and Fabian are going to sign for less than thought. And that’s just…….super.
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jul 14, 2021 10:28:46 GMT -5
BJ Vela is committed to play next season at St Mary's. Based solely from internet sleuthing, I feel like he is likely to sign.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 14, 2021 10:56:25 GMT -5
BJ Vela is committed to play next season at St Mary's. Based solely from internet sleuthing, I feel like he is likely to sign. Apparently went by Brendon until recently. Good call. |
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Post by eagleeye9184 on Jul 14, 2021 11:20:46 GMT -5
This becomes my favorite thread to check over the next few weeks. Bring on the signings.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 14, 2021 12:00:11 GMT -5
Well there's where a HS guy was ranked and what it'd take to get him not to go to college and, he would hope, improve his draft stock, right? Sebastian Keane was ranked very similarly in 2019 but wanted $1M to not go to Northeastern. Looks like a good bet by him so far. Red Sox instead took that money and signed 3 guys with it in Cellucci, Loubier, and Blalock.
I think Green is insurance if negotiations with Fabian go sideways. If they're not able to get him to sign, you lose his slot money, but you take the money overslot you'd have given to Fabian (so if, say, they were going to give him $2.3M, $443,300) and see if that plus $125k (same example, $568,300) is enough to get him to sign. If not him, you move on to, say, Hood.
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