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2021 Draft Signing Period
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 14, 2021 13:17:26 GMT -5
Fully vetted the scouting reports, bios, & stat lines for all of the draftees, talked it over with the brass, did some social media stalking, and reviewed the discussion here. Changed some of my projections slightly. Again, this is all still largely speculation.
Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)
Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus
1 Marcelo Mayer $7,250,000
2 Jud Fabian $2,250,000
3 Tyler McDonough $831,100 (slot)
4 Elmer Rodriguez $200,000
5 Nathan Hickey $410,100 (slot)
6 Daniel McElveny $250,000
7 Wyatt Olds $150,000
8 Hunter Dobbins $100,000
9 Tyler Miller $150,000
10 Matt Litwicki $50,000
After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap)
11 Niko Kavadas $300,000 ($175k towards cap)
13 Zach Ehrhard $150,000 ($25k over cap)
After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap)
12 Christopher Troye
14 Jacob Webb
18 Phillip Sikes
19 Tyler Uberstine
Total spent towards cap using these projections: $11,841,200
Red Sox Cap: $11,359,600
Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $11,927,580
Super wicked early projected not to sign
15 Payton Green
16 BJ Vela
17 Luis Guerrero
20 Josh Hood
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 14, 2021 13:49:23 GMT -5
Fully vetted the scouting reports, bios, & stat lines for all of the draftees, talked it over with the brass, did some social media stalking, and reviewed the discussion here. Changed some of my projections slightly. Again, this is all still largely speculation. Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)
Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus1 Marcelo Mayer $7,250,000 2 Jud Fabian $2,250,000 3 Tyler McDonough $831,100 (slot) 4 Elmer Rodriguez $200,000 5 Nathan Hickey $410,100 (slot) 6 Daniel McElveny $250,000 7 Wyatt Olds $150,000 8 Hunter Dobbins $100,000 9 Tyler Miller $150,000 10 Matt Litwicki $50,000 After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap)11 Niko Kavadas $300,000 ($175k towards cap) 13 Zach Ehrhard $150,000 ($25k over cap) After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap)12 Christopher Troye 14 Jacob Webb 18 Phillip Sikes 19 Tyler Uberstine Total spent towards cap using these projections: $11,841,200 Red Sox Cap: $11,359,600 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $11,927,580 Super wicked early projected not to sign15 Payton Green 16 BJ Vela 17 Luis Guerrero 20 Josh Hood So on those figures we have about $568,000 (11,927,000-11,359,000) to use on the tough signs (plus $125k per)? |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 14, 2021 13:54:49 GMT -5
No. $11,359,600 is the Red Sox draft cap. You want to subtract the first number ($11,841,200) from the +5% number. This projection has them within $100k of the +5% number, and it likely gets a lot closer with guys getting a few grand here or there that make the round numbers less round.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 14, 2021 14:38:12 GMT -5
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Post by tizzle on Jul 14, 2021 15:07:52 GMT -5
Fully vetted the scouting reports, bios, & stat lines for all of the draftees, talked it over with the brass, did some social media stalking, and reviewed the discussion here. Changed some of my projections slightly. Again, this is all still largely speculation. Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)
Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus1 Marcelo Mayer $7,250,000 2 Jud Fabian $2,250,000 3 Tyler McDonough $831,100 (slot) 4 Elmer Rodriguez $200,000 5 Nathan Hickey $410,100 (slot) 6 Daniel McElveny $250,000 7 Wyatt Olds $150,000 8 Hunter Dobbins $100,000 9 Tyler Miller $150,000 10 Matt Litwicki $50,000 After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap)11 Niko Kavadas $300,000 ($175k towards cap) 13 Zach Ehrhard $150,000 ($25k over cap) After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap)12 Christopher Troye 14 Jacob Webb 18 Phillip Sikes 19 Tyler Uberstine Total spent towards cap using these projections: $11,841,200 Red Sox Cap: $11,359,600 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $11,927,580 Super wicked early projected not to sign15 Payton Green 16 BJ Vela 17 Luis Guerrero 20 Josh Hood Is that a typo or do you really see Litwicki getting only 50K? |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 14, 2021 15:26:16 GMT -5
Fully vetted the scouting reports, bios, & stat lines for all of the draftees, talked it over with the brass, did some social media stalking, and reviewed the discussion here. Changed some of my projections slightly. Again, this is all still largely speculation. Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)
Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus1 Marcelo Mayer $7,250,000 2 Jud Fabian $2,250,000 3 Tyler McDonough $831,100 (slot) 4 Elmer Rodriguez $200,000 5 Nathan Hickey $410,100 (slot) 6 Daniel McElveny $250,000 7 Wyatt Olds $150,000 8 Hunter Dobbins $100,000 9 Tyler Miller $150,000 10 Matt Litwicki $50,000 After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap)11 Niko Kavadas $300,000 ($175k towards cap) 13 Zach Ehrhard $150,000 ($25k over cap) After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap)12 Christopher Troye 14 Jacob Webb 18 Phillip Sikes 19 Tyler Uberstine Total spent towards cap using these projections: $11,841,200 Red Sox Cap: $11,359,600 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $11,927,580 Super wicked early projected not to sign15 Payton Green 16 BJ Vela 17 Luis Guerrero 20 Josh Hood Is that a typo or do you really see Litwicki getting only 50K? Reliever-only with back issues? Seems right to me. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 14, 2021 15:31:44 GMT -5
He's also turns 23 at the start of August, so he has pretty much zero leverage even if he went back to school.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 14, 2021 15:41:00 GMT -5
He's also turns 23 at the start of August, so he has pretty much zero leverage even if he went back to school. He's a smart kid -- 3x Academic All-Big-Ten. He'll make the right choice...
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 14, 2021 16:08:15 GMT -5
No. $11,359,600 is the Red Sox draft cap. You want to subtract the first number ($11,841,200) from the +5% number. This projection has them within $100k of the +5% number, and it likely gets a lot closer with guys getting a few grand here or there that make the round numbers less round. Sorry..Read too quickly....Thought too slowly. Glad that there was no exam. Thanks. Basically we've got 100k + or - in addition to the available $125k per to sign the others you deemed 'unlikely' to sign...Makes sense. At least we took a shot. |
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jul 14, 2021 19:44:07 GMT -5
Here are my "super wicked early speculative gut-check predictions" for the 2021 signing season. I don't have any inside info behind this yet, these predictions are just based on gut feel and years of history of making these projections. These initial guesstimates have usually been pretty solid in years past, but they're just that - projections with a significant amount of possible variability. Feedback is welcome and appreciated. I will update from time to time as more info comes in and as opinions evolve. Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)
Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus1 Marcelo Mayer $7,000,000 2 Jud Fabian $2,000,000 3 Tyler McDonough $831,100 (slot) 4 Elmer Rodriguez $300,000 5 Nathan Hickey $410,100 (slot) 6 Daniel McElveny $250,000 7 Wyatt Olds $150,000 8 Hunter Dobbins $150,000 9 Tyler Miller $150,000 10 Matt Litwicki $150,000 After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap)11 Niko Kavadas $400,000 ($275k towards cap) 13 Zach Ehrhard $150,000 ($25k over cap) After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap)12 Christopher Troye 14 Jacob Webb 18 Phillip Sikes Total spent towards cap using these projections: $11,691,200 Red Sox Cap: $11,359,600 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $11,927,580 Super wicked early projected not to signVela, Guerrero, Uberstine, and Hood could all sign if there is roster space. Green appears unlikely.15 Payton Green 16 BJ Vela 17 Luis Guerrero 19 Tyler Uberstine 20 Josh Hood You really think Kavadas can command more than $125k? I get that he's good, but he's a senior sign in the 11th round. I don't understand why he should get over slot either. He either takes the 125k the Sox offer or he can go back to college. That means next season he will be signed for $5,000-$50,000 (just a guess) because his eligibility is completely gone. Even if taken in the third round he won't have the leverage. Honestly, I would only be giving him full slot out of respect. Even Noah Song took $100k |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 14, 2021 19:47:04 GMT -5
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Post by vmoss on Jul 14, 2021 20:23:43 GMT -5
For 11-20 round picks this year, can a team reallocate any signings less than $125K? Thanks.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jul 14, 2021 20:33:03 GMT -5
For 11-20 round picks this year, can a team reallocate any signings less than $125K? Thanks. I don't think so, but ill need someone to confirm it. I believe its anything over takes away, but under doesn't give extra. |
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kman22
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Post by kman22 on Jul 14, 2021 20:34:35 GMT -5
For 11-20 round picks this year, can a team reallocate any signings less than $125K? Thanks. I don't think so, but ill need someone to confirm it. I believe its anything over takes away, but under doesn't give extra. Yeah, only money over $125k impacts the bonus pool. There's no savings after round 10. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 14, 2021 21:00:37 GMT -5
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 14, 2021 21:36:20 GMT -5
I'd love for Guerrero and Hood to meet him there. |
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jul 15, 2021 9:31:29 GMT -5
Cory is a NC State reporter for 247, was directly asked is Josh Hood would sign with the Red Sox:
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 15, 2021 10:49:42 GMT -5
Reminder to be careful when the player says they're going to sign. In the Vela case, where he knows he's going to Fort Myers, etc., that's almost certainly legit, but sometimes they'll be like "yeah, I'm signing!" but they don't know how it works and don't realize they might not get an actual offer, or it's the writer saying they're going to go to Fort Myers because they just google where the Rookie team is.
I think Caleb Hill in 2019 was all about signing on his social media, in articles, etc., and then just... never signed.
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Post by azblue on Jul 15, 2021 17:09:54 GMT -5
There is such a dramatic range of opinions about how much the Sox will have to pay Niko Kavadas, I thought I would start a tread collleccting best guesses on the signing bonus for Nick the Greek.
My guess--he will sign for nominally above slot. $125,000 slot plus $15,000. I do not think he wants to go back for the first year of a master's program, take the chance of getting no more money and play for a bottom dwelling team.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 15, 2021 17:18:47 GMT -5
I'll call what I said in another thread, 200k
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 15, 2021 17:39:54 GMT -5
Moved azblue's post here - I don't think we need another thread just for what Kavadas is going to sign for. Personally - I think he signs for around $200,000, but don't feel very confident in that.
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jul 15, 2021 19:05:52 GMT -5
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 15, 2021 19:08:18 GMT -5
Would have to imagine that, if they're already signing UDFA's, they're not worried about roster spaces with their draftees. |
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larrycook
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Post by larrycook on Jul 15, 2021 19:39:53 GMT -5
Maybe we need a second fcl team next year!
I guess most of these draft picks and UDFA are just going to hang around the practice fields for the rest of the season!
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Post by lennsakata on Jul 15, 2021 20:43:38 GMT -5
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