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2021 Draft Signing Period
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jul 26, 2021 21:42:26 GMT -5
Let’s talk after the deadline.
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Post by philarhody on Jul 26, 2021 21:47:42 GMT -5
Yeah, I mean, Fabian isn’t worth 3 million. And he’s not going to make 2.5 if he hits .275 with a 28 percent k rate again. So good luck to him. It will be nice to have the pick next year.
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Post by danredhawk on Jul 26, 2021 21:53:06 GMT -5
I’d still believe this is just hardball to maximize every penny he gets to sign. Mayer happily took the money and avoided the significant risk and I’d bet that Fabian does too...
If not, well it’s all about the risk - and he risks a lot going back to school. If he struggles with the K’s at any point he just reinforces the question marks around his hit tool. He also risks the Rocker factor - putting himself on a pedestal for a third season to get picked apart by scouts.
Hit tool is not an easy fix - and if you struggle at a lower level assuming it will get better as you move up is often a fools errand. But if wants to take that risk more power to him, I’d bet against him.
If you lack power but square balls up - you can improve just be lifting weights or getting quicker. Contact itself is much more based on what your born with.
As for the Sox - and because of his swing and miss - I’m more than ok seeing them take the risk of pushing that pick to next year and like their chances to be better for it. It’s not the ideal strategy, but the pick is made so call his bluff. Playing over/under with life-changing money - I hope he doesn’t live to regret it...
Every kid who turns it down assumes they’re promised 2x the cash in the next year - but I’d love to see the numbers on that and imagine far more kids get less than get more...
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Post by jdb on Jul 26, 2021 21:55:01 GMT -5
I think it’s posturing as well but If he doesn’t sign it’s great to have extra capital next year. We could even have extra picks for JDM or E Rod depending on what happens.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 26, 2021 22:07:34 GMT -5
Well, maybe it's just posturing, but it seems completely bananas to me to turn down a guaranteed $2.5 million. That's enough to live comfortably for the rest of your life. The difference in marginal utility between, say, $200,000 and $2.5 million is about 1000x more than the difference between $2.5 million and $6 million or whatever, if you ask me.
And he seems at *real* high risk of not being picked in the first round next year, either. What if the Ks don't come down next season? What if he gets injured? I like him as a second round pick (where if he has a 20% chance of success it's a good investment for the drafting team). But before this season he was talked about as a top 5 pick and he ended up falling to #40. Who's to say that trajectory will reverse itself?
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,867 
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Post by cdj on Jul 26, 2021 22:12:11 GMT -5
So pick 30, 40, and like 70?  |
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 26, 2021 22:13:51 GMT -5
If he doesn’t sign , just think of it as a good omen for something special next year.
Maybe they parlay 2 great starters next year. The first rounder and that pick.
Plus Florida hasn’t been good to the Sox
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 26, 2021 22:14:29 GMT -5
What if the Ks don't come down next season? What if he gets injured? I like him as a second round pick (where if he has a 20% chance of success it's a good investment for the drafting team). But before this season he was talked about as a top 5 pick and he ended up falling to #40. Who's to say that trajectory will reverse itself? I suppose if Fabians Trajectory reversed course we should be thankful he didn’t sign and the Sox get the 41st pick next year. |
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Post by incandenza on Jul 26, 2021 22:33:34 GMT -5
What if the Ks don't come down next season? What if he gets injured? I like him as a second round pick (where if he has a 20% chance of success it's a good investment for the drafting team). But before this season he was talked about as a top 5 pick and he ended up falling to #40. Who's to say that trajectory will reverse itself? I suppose if Fabians Trajectory reversed course we should be thankful he didn’t sign and the Sox get the 41st pick next year. I didn't quite express it clearly, but the idea I was trying to get at was: let's say there's a 30% chance he can overcome his K problems and go on to be a really promising prospect. That actually makes him a great pick at #40, where only like 10-15% of draftees ever amount to anything.
But at those same odds it's a terrible idea for him to go back to school and hope he gets picked higher next year (when he'll be a year older and have less leverage). Because it's more likely than not that his stock will be even lower a year from now.
So, in all likelihood, if he doesn't sign then we will end up glad he didn't, because he will probably fail, because most draftees of that caliber fail. But that doesn't mean he wouldn't be a good gamble for us. And by the same token, it seems like the obviously best thing for him would be to sign.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jul 26, 2021 22:48:14 GMT -5
Well, maybe it's just posturing, but it seems completely bananas to me to turn down a guaranteed $2.5 million. That's enough to live comfortably for the rest of your life. The difference in marginal utility between, say, $200,000 and $2.5 million is about 1000x more than the difference between $2.5 million and $6 million or whatever, if you ask me. And he seems at *real* high risk of not being picked in the first round next year, either. What if the Ks don't come down next season? What if he gets injured? I like him as a second round pick (where if he has a 20% chance of success it's a good investment for the drafting team). But before this season he was talked about as a top 5 pick and he ended up falling to #40. Who's to say that trajectory will reverse itself? Plus there's also the risk of delaying his clock by a year too - getting to the majors one year later, hitting free agency year one year later, etc. While it's possible he catches up, that's not a guarantee. He also assuming that he'll be a first round draft pick next year. |
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Post by a2sox on Jul 26, 2021 22:55:06 GMT -5
Yeah, seems like it was worth the risk (and may still pay off). At worst, next year they get someone who has the talent of the 40th pick.
It's a good reminder that "it's safe to assume the top 10 will sign" is a general rule, not entirely predictive.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Jul 26, 2021 23:05:48 GMT -5
I predict Fabian signs.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 26, 2021 23:28:18 GMT -5
Let's at least just wait until the end of the week before we start burning things. Please? I'm not burning anything, I just hate that. It's such a cop-out to say that the people in charge know what they are doing. Why be a fan then? Form your own opinions. Even Bill Belichick deserves to get criticized for deals he does and doesn't make. Chaim Bloom is certainly not above that. Except in this instance you're just straight up not correct, people are explaining that to you, and you still think you know. He made a gamble that might not pay off, but he made it with the protection of recouping the pick next year. Just because the gamble didn't pay off doesn't mean it wasn't a worthy gamble, you can't be making these arguments out of hindsight (didn't see you have any problems with the pick until now). Not sure how this is so hard to understand. |
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 27, 2021 0:10:57 GMT -5
There was a great story linked here years and years ago after Boston drafted UF starter Karsten Whitson in the 11th rd in 2014. He had been drafted by the Pad's 1st rd (9th) in 2011 and turned down like 2m believe the long ago article stated? Anyway.. It was a poker game by his agen and then GM of the Pad's, each expecting the other to fold on their negotiating stance.. neither did, time ran out and Whitson was hurt in college, getting squat, then playing in 4 MiLB games for Boston according to BR.
That article said he was crying uncontrollably after his agent pulled the stunt and for him not telling him to go ahead and take the Pad's offer.. His family didn't come from money and they were working family.
A lesson some drafted kids who don't have the silver spoon might learn from. Possibly someone can dig up the Whitson article linked here??
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Post by kman22 on Jul 27, 2021 0:29:16 GMT -5
Fabian went number 40 and allegedly had an asking price of $3M. Slot value doesn't break $3M until you get to pick 22. If the Sox are offering something like $2.5M, that's essentially slot for pick 27.
It would seem like he's banking on rebounding and going significantly higher next year, otherwise this seems like a high risk, low reward gamble.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 27, 2021 0:52:14 GMT -5
There was a great story linked here years and years ago after Boston drafted UF starter Karsten Whitson in the 11th rd in 2014. He had been drafted by the Pad's 1st rd (9th) in 2011 and turned down like 2m believe the long ago article stated? Anyway.. It was a poker game by his agen and then GM of the Pad's, each expecting the other to fold on their negotiating stance.. neither did, time ran out and Whitson was hurt in college, getting squat, then playing in 4 MiLB games for Boston according to BR. That article said he was crying uncontrollably after his agent pulled the stunt and for him not telling him to go ahead and take the Pad's offer.. His family didn't come from money and they were working family. A lesson some drafted kids who don't have the silver spoon might learn from. Possibly someone can dig up the Whitson article linked here?? I remember that. Quite the scumbag agent (excuse the redundancy). www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sdut-missed-draft-pick-angers-padres-2010aug17-story.html |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 27, 2021 1:21:01 GMT -5
This is somewhat dated but it's a list of players that didn't sign and what they got afterwards. Most interesting one was Brady Aiken who turned down 40% of his slot (medical issues) then got much less later from the Indians (for those of you who are too young to remember, that's the old name for the Guardians). Astros picked Bregman the next year for that slot. www.baseballamerica.com/stories/what-has-happened-to-top-picks-who-failed-to-sign/(It's not $$) Iirc, Brady's agent was scumbag Casey Close and I believe he also represented the Astro's next pick so, there was a clear conflict of interest there. |
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Post by tizzle on Jul 27, 2021 1:21:54 GMT -5
There was a great story linked here years and years ago after Boston drafted UF starter Karsten Whitson in the 11th rd in 2014. He had been drafted by the Pad's 1st rd (9th) in 2011 and turned down like 2m believe the long ago article stated? Anyway.. It was a poker game by his agen and then GM of the Pad's, each expecting the other to fold on their negotiating stance.. neither did, time ran out and Whitson was hurt in college, getting squat, then playing in 4 MiLB games for Boston according to BR. That article said he was crying uncontrollably after his agent pulled the stunt and for him not telling him to go ahead and take the Pad's offer.. His family didn't come from money and they were working family. A lesson some drafted kids who don't have the silver spoon might learn from. Possibly someone can dig up the Whitson article linked here?? The most infamous case, imo, was Matt Harrington. For those who don't remember him, he was considered the best player in the draft in 2000. He dropped several picks because of bonus demands, but was considered by everyone the prize of the draft. He was offered something like 4 mil and turned it down and sat out a season. he dropped in the next draft but still got offered something like 1.5. He turned it down and went to the independent leagues. He didn't pitch well there, got drafted again, much later and turned down 100K or whatever, went back tot he independent league, kept getting drafted lower and being offered less and turning it down. I don't think he ever even got into a major league organization. There was a piece on him years later and he was working at Costco or someplace. There's a reason almost everyone drafted in the first ten rounds signs. Turning down big money is such a risk. And, I would argue, if you want to "bet on yourself" as a player, sign and bet that you'll make it to the majors and get the real money, rather than betting you'll do better in college and get an extra half mil or so. |
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 27, 2021 5:55:28 GMT -5
Should have taken Hill over Fabien. When making these picks you need to have an idea of what he is going to want. Huge blunder. However at least the Sox get #41 next year so its not all bad.
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Post by tomhouse on Jul 27, 2021 6:19:39 GMT -5
Should have taken Hill over Fabien. When making these picks you need to have an idea of what he is going to want. Huge blunder. However at least the Sox get #41 next year so its not all bad. Idk. It doesn’t seem like a huge gamble. The opportunity cost is the one year delay, the 4 slot drop and the risk that a player projected to be as good as Fabian is not there next year, which might be a small risk, especially given the unpredictability of Milb players becoming productive MLB players. |
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 27, 2021 6:41:21 GMT -5
If we're being honest, Chaim and crew known what they're doing. Ya, let's blindly follow, that always works out. What's the worst that can happen if we don't start severely criticizing them before it's even over? This is a baseball team, not someone trying to convince you that you should get experimental surgery.
Do you think our complaining will make things change? Maybe they can run the team using fan polls? I hope not.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 27, 2021 7:19:48 GMT -5
I think Jud may have become caught up in the rankings and in his mind couldn't accept that the bonus money that he had imagined wasn't going to be there. Obviously speculation on my part but that would be human nature. I still think there is a chance that he comes around and that this is a negotiating ploy by his agents, 2.5 million is a lot of money. I hope someone with a level head is explaining the gamble he is taking as it seems to me he is not likely to change that number enough to offset the lost yr. As someone said earlier, take the money and bet on yourself to excel in the minors to get paid in the long run. That seems like a more prudent gamble when you are staring down a couple million dollars, especially when the flaw in your game that created this situation isn't an easy fix.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 27, 2021 7:24:46 GMT -5
What boggles me is any extra penny he's fighting for right now is taking away from his teammate. His teammate has said he won't be signing either if he doesn't get a set amount of money so if the Sox gave Fabian everything if Hickey doesn't sign and assuming the offer is about 2.5 million then he's fighting for another 167K. I get fighting for every penny, but that seems like a small amount to squabble over if the choice is 2.5 million or don't start your pro career.
Maybe Hickey stole his GF freshman year and this is him getting back at him.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 27, 2021 7:24:58 GMT -5
Ya, let's blindly follow, that always works out. What's the worst that can happen if we don't start severely criticizing them before it's even over? This is a baseball team, not someone trying to convince you that you should get experimental surgery. Do you think our complaining will make things change? Maybe they can run the team using fan polls? I hope not.
It's not even that. People are criticizing and forming their own opinions without all the facts. We have no idea what the Sox know or think they know about what it will take to sign Fabian and Hickey. Pretty sure the Sox have more information than I do. |
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 27, 2021 7:46:21 GMT -5
If you get to the bigs a year sooner, there’s your 500k. Not to mention a year closer to arbitration and free agency
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