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2021 Draft Signing Period
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Post by Smittyw on Jul 27, 2021 17:06:56 GMT -5
I do think it's crazy how so many people in here were excited about Fabian when we drafted him and called it great value and now those same people are bringing up the k-rate and waxing poetic about a future unmade pick. I don't think it's crazy at all to think it was a great gamble and also not think it's the end of the world if the gamble doesn't work out. Even if this was being reported by other than Gammons, though, I'll believe it when I see it. That's a lot of money for a kid to turn down and a huge amount of risk. We'll see, but to start tearing into the Red Sox before it even happens is ludicrous. |
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Post by ramireja on Jul 27, 2021 17:26:02 GMT -5
Pirates 14th rounder HS OF Braylon Bishop (87 BA / 94 MLB) signed for $260K today. Pretty crazy considering his price rumors and consensus talent rankings. A good reminder as to why we can't really pretend to know Payton Green's signability. Its not really fair to equate first round talent w/ > $1.5M asking price. Some were shocked when Northcut signed for $440K despite being a consensus top 100 guy, but some guys just want to play professionally right away. Let me be very clear though, I'm not saying Green will sign or that there is even a 50/50 chance....I think he's unlikely to sign but its important to admit we have no idea what it would take to sign him. |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 27, 2021 17:59:20 GMT -5
I fully understand the way the MLB draft is formatted. The fact that essentially every team spends to their draft cap in no way makes me less likely to have a problem with the idea that draft prospects should consider themselves lucky to be there. The attitudes around drafted players don't just disappear and reset once they become major leaguers. As others have pointed out as well, the draft does very much exist to limit spending. None of this detracts from my overall point which is that each player should negotiate for every dollar they're worth. Obviously, there is a maximum that can be in the context of the draft, but that's not inconsistent with anything I've said. The point has been made again and again, when it comes to the draft the only thing that matters is your bargaining position, don't give that up or voluntarily weaken it. I think the point is that Fabian (presumably) has no other way in which he can make this type of life altering money in his early 20's so turning it down is kind of crazy when there is a distinct chance that he'll never be offered this kind of money again. It's a huge, huge risk and one that for several reasons may not be worth it even if he does get his $3M next year. What's funny is that if he just merely invested that 2.5 million, he probably gets that extra .5 million or more by the next time he's drafted and looking for 3 million. It's just such an unnecessary gamble, but I guess he can go back to school again the year after next because of Covid? So he's not totally without any leverage. I'm just failing to see how it's worth the risk. Like, great, you made 2 million more. You could also continue to get exposed and go entirely undrafted. Rocker was a once in a generation pitcher, until he wasn't. Still went 10th, but still. Obviously I want the prospect, but take the money kid. If you're getting offered 600k, fine, go back to school, but 2.5 million? |
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Post by jchang on Jul 27, 2021 18:06:31 GMT -5
What's funny is that if he just merely invested that 2.5 million, he probably gets that extra .5 million or more by the next time he's drafted and looking for 3 million. It's just such an unnecessary gamble, but I guess he can go back to school again the year after next because of Covid? So he's not totally without any leverage. I'm just failing to see how it's worth the risk. Like, great, you made 2 million more. You could also continue to get exposed and go entirely undrafted. Rocker was a once in a generation pitcher, until he wasn't. Still went 10th, but still. Obviously I want the prospect, but take the money kid. If you're getting offered 600k, fine, go back to school, but 2.5 million? 8% is more reasonable annual appreciation, so 2.5 becomes 2.7 in one year. Of course, both are after agent fees and taxes, so the tax aspect is moot. This actually makes the risk factor that he will warrant slot 24 money next year all the more a bad bet. Another question is: which path will lead to the majors, if this happens, sooner or a longer MLB career. I assume that 1 year of college is not equivalent to 1 year of Milb, so perhaps signing now could mean one-half season sooner to the majors? |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 27, 2021 18:29:06 GMT -5
What's funny is that if he just merely invested that 2.5 million, he probably gets that extra .5 million or more by the next time he's drafted and looking for 3 million. It's just such an unnecessary gamble, but I guess he can go back to school again the year after next because of Covid? So he's not totally without any leverage. I'm just failing to see how it's worth the risk. Like, great, you made 2 million more. You could also continue to get exposed and go entirely undrafted. Rocker was a once in a generation pitcher, until he wasn't. Still went 10th, but still. Obviously I want the prospect, but take the money kid. If you're getting offered 600k, fine, go back to school, but 2.5 million? 8% is more reasonable annual appreciation, so 2.5 becomes 2.7 in one year. Of course, both are after agent fees and taxes, so the tax aspect is moot. This actually makes the risk factor that he will warrant slot 24 money next year all the more a bad bet. Another question is: which path will lead to the majors, if this happens, sooner or a longer MLB career. I assume that 1 year of college is not equivalent to 1 year of Milb, so perhaps signing now could mean one-half season sooner to the majors? That's fair, 8% is the norm of an expected ROI. It could be less, could be more. Dividends are also a factor, but it's still an appreciated difference. So he gets .2 over the course of the year it just makes his risk over a difference of .3. Also, more upfront means more taxes and if the agent takes a percentage that's more to allotted to them. I don't believe 1 year of college is equivalent to 1 year of minors. He could be in AA the year he enters someone's A team. I mean, he could also have a horrible year or get hurt and go undrafted entirely. I get it if he's fighting over a "mere" 600k, but 2.5 million? You better stay healthy and put up monster numbers. I just know for my own personal mental health I could never forgive myself if I just blew 2.5 million. |
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Post by incandenza on Jul 27, 2021 18:40:39 GMT -5
The obviousness of the arguments being made here (by me, among others) plus the lack of confirmation from other sources has me pretty well persuaded that this is all in fact just a negotiating tactic and he will sign in the end.
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Post by geostorm on Jul 27, 2021 18:43:24 GMT -5
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 27, 2021 20:48:06 GMT -5
8% is more reasonable annual appreciation, so 2.5 becomes 2.7 in one year. Of course, both are after agent fees and taxes, so the tax aspect is moot. This actually makes the risk factor that he will warrant slot 24 money next year all the more a bad bet. Another question is: which path will lead to the majors, if this happens, sooner or a longer MLB career. I assume that 1 year of college is not equivalent to 1 year of Milb, so perhaps signing now could mean one-half season sooner to the majors? That's fair, 8% is the norm of an expected ROI. It could be less, could be more. Dividends are also a factor, but it's still an appreciated difference. So he gets .2 over the course of the year it just makes his risk over a difference of .3. Also, more upfront means more taxes and if the agent takes a percentage that's more to allotted to them. I don't believe 1 year of college is equivalent to 1 year of minors. He could be in AA the year he enters someone's A team. I mean, he could also have a horrible year or get hurt and go undrafted entirely. I get it if he's fighting over a "mere" 600k, but 2.5 million? You better stay healthy and put up monster numbers. I just know for my own personal mental health I could never forgive myself if I just blew 2.5 million. Yeah but imagine the high you'd get if it pays off and you go top 5... That's a guy I'd want to draft. Talk about performing under pressure...
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sportshubby
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Post by sportshubby on Jul 27, 2021 21:16:30 GMT -5
The more I think about it, is it possible Bloom essentially blocked Fabian deals with the idea of deferring a player signing until next year when you would have a lower draft pool and with essentially two years worth of draftees already, you are dealing with a logjam of players to evaluate.
You give a reasonable offer and if he takes it great, but if not you still messed with others draft plans and set yourself up for a better draft next year. Makes it a much lower risk pick in that lens.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 27, 2021 23:10:51 GMT -5
Question about the signing deadline - how does it apply to UDFA's? If they don't sign by August 1st, can they just not sign until the next calendar year? Are they still hit by the same restrictions? I doubt any UDFA is intentionally not signing just to sign a 500k deal in January, but just wondering if it's even possible, or if guys who don't sign by the deadline just can't sign. UDFAs can sign whenever. Joey Stock and Nate Tellier signed on 8/29 and 9/1, respectively, last year. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 27, 2021 23:13:07 GMT -5
The more I think about it, is it possible Bloom essentially blocked Fabian deals with the idea of deferring a player signing until next year when you would have a lower draft pool and with essentially two years worth of draftees already, you are dealing with a logjam of players to evaluate. You give a reasonable offer and if he takes it great, but if not you still messed with others draft plans and set yourself up for a better draft next year. Makes it a much lower risk pick in that lens. That's not how I'd put it - I sincerely doubt they came into the draft planning to punt on their second-round pick to push it into next year. I think they really like Fabian and drafted him with a plan to offer him a contract less than $3M with the thought he probably takes it, but if he doesn't, the pick is protected and it's not a horrible thing. |
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 28, 2021 3:39:50 GMT -5
The more I think about it, is it possible Bloom essentially blocked Fabian deals with the idea of deferring a player signing until next year when you would have a lower draft pool and with essentially two years worth of draftees already, you are dealing with a logjam of players to evaluate. You give a reasonable offer and if he takes it great, but if not you still messed with others draft plans and set yourself up for a better draft next year. Makes it a much lower risk pick in that lens. That's not how I'd put it - I sincerely doubt they came into the draft planning to punt on their second-round pick to push it into next year. I think they really like Fabian and drafted him with a plan to offer him a contract less than $3M with the thought he probably takes it, but if he doesn't, the pick is protected and it's not a horrible thing. You know what’s crazy? Say we offered him 2M. You rather go back to school and play for free in hopes to make more? Wouldn’t it be smarter to get your career started so you can be 1 year closer to your real contract lol. Especially getting drafted by a team that is known for drafting and developing OF and willing to call them up and play them even in a pennant race? I feel like i could get him to sign after a 10 min convo 😂 |
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Post by ocdss on Jul 28, 2021 6:00:04 GMT -5
Just to jump a few pages back, on MLB Pipeline Callis said Fabian would’ve gotten $3M from Baltimore at pick 41.
I don’t think Chaim was looking to roll the pick, he just took advantage of the fact that it’s a draft and took the best player on his board. They liked him at the beginning of the year, so he’s worth making a run at.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 28, 2021 6:11:17 GMT -5
That's not how I'd put it - I sincerely doubt they came into the draft planning to punt on their second-round pick to push it into next year. I think they really like Fabian and drafted him with a plan to offer him a contract less than $3M with the thought he probably takes it, but if he doesn't, the pick is protected and it's not a horrible thing. You know what’s crazy? Say we offered him 2M. You rather go back to school and play for free in hopes to make more? Wouldn’t it be smarter to get your career started so you can be 1 year closer to your real contract lol. Especially getting drafted by a team that is known for drafting and developing OF and willing to call them up and play them even in a pennant race? I feel like i could get him to sign after a 10 min convo 😂 He can get NIL endorsements now so technically he can make some money but that's not likely to come anywhere near the 2 million. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 28, 2021 6:19:28 GMT -5
Just to jump a few pages back, on MLB Pipeline Callis said Fabian would’ve gotten $3M from Baltimore at pick 41. I don’t think Chaim was looking to roll the pick, he just took advantage of the fact that it’s a draft and took the best player on his board. They liked him at the beginning of the year, so he’s worth making a run at. Jim also said that Hickey might be getting $1M, which is what we'd also been kind of getting at. My jaw dropped the first time I heard that. |
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 28, 2021 7:01:56 GMT -5
WOW. They must really like Hickey's bat.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 28, 2021 7:03:26 GMT -5
WOW. They must really like Hickey's bat. And his ability to stay behind the plate as a catcher? I'm kind of surprised. I thought the pick was in the Groshans, Kottam realm. I didn't realize they think this highly of him. |
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 28, 2021 7:05:26 GMT -5
WOW. They must really like Hickey's bat. And his ability to stay behind the plate as a catcher? I'm kind of surprised. I thought the pick was in the Groshans, Kottam realm. I didn't realize they think this highly of him. Scouting doesn't bode well for him staying behind the plate, but to be fair the scouting is very limited and he's very young so who knows. Definitely nothing wrong with a bat first profile for a 5th round pick, but for $1 million....it kind of makes me excited in the sense that they must really see something in him but on the other hand there's a little bit of WTF in me. I know he has some leverage as a sophmore as well. |
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Post by greenmonster on Jul 28, 2021 7:21:31 GMT -5
Kinda seems like they might be throwing in the towel on Fabian and re-directing whatever excess they have towards Hickey and/or Kavadas
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Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2021 7:24:12 GMT -5
If you tell teams that you want $3M, a team (the Orioles) tells you that they’ll give you that, but another team (the Red Sox) drafts you first and only offers you (say) $2.3M, that would be super frustrating! It would feel like that second team just stole $700,000 (life changing money) from you! Even if, now that you’ve been drafted by a team that doesn’t have the flexibility to offer you more than that, the realistic best decision for you is just to take what they can offer you, you might be tempted to say “eff these guys, I’ll just reenter the draft next year.” There’s also the agent’s incentive to not sign so that future bonus demands are more credible.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 28, 2021 7:34:43 GMT -5
We could go on and on about this topic, and we likely will until he's either signed or for the next week or so, but you can't be made at Fabian. This is a decision for him, his family, and his agent. One just hopes he doesn't screw himself over if he doesn't sign and does nothing to raise his stock next year.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jul 28, 2021 7:57:54 GMT -5
That's not how I'd put it - I sincerely doubt they came into the draft planning to punt on their second-round pick to push it into next year. I think they really like Fabian and drafted him with a plan to offer him a contract less than $3M with the thought he probably takes it, but if he doesn't, the pick is protected and it's not a horrible thing. You know what’s crazy? Say we offered him 2M. You rather go back to school and play for free in hopes to make more? Wouldn’t it be smarter to get your career started so you can be 1 year closer to your real contract lol. Especially getting drafted by a team that is known for drafting and developing OF and willing to call them up and play them even in a pennant race? I feel like i could get him to sign after a 10 min convo 😂 It makes sense IF you are supremely confident in your ability to make the bigs. But what if you aren't, or if you are merely realistic about the odds facing you? Then the argument swings toward maximizing the draft payout. I'm not saying Fabian lacks confidence. But for so many of these guys, the draft payday IS the biggest one they ever receive. As for the O's, well, that's the advantage of drafting high that I talked about earlier. It isn't just the #4 pick that matters, it's the high picks in each round. IF Fabian did have a conversation with the O's and they told him they'd give him $3 million, that's all well and good. Does that mean that Fabian was checking his circumstances figuring he might fall as far as he did, or farther? That would suggest that maybe he does have at least a realistic view of where he was going to be selected, and maybe a pessimistic view. |
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jul 28, 2021 7:58:13 GMT -5
Fabian would be investing.a lot in himself if he walks away from approximately $2.3 million. That’s a lot of pressure without much leverage if he doesn’t perform in college next season. Same for Hickey.
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Post by patford on Jul 28, 2021 8:45:35 GMT -5
You know what’s crazy? Say we offered him 2M. You rather go back to school and play for free in hopes to make more? Wouldn’t it be smarter to get your career started so you can be 1 year closer to your real contract lol. Especially getting drafted by a team that is known for drafting and developing OF and willing to call them up and play them even in a pennant race? I feel like i could get him to sign after a 10 min convo 😂 It makes sense IF you are supremely confident in your ability to make the bigs. But what if you aren't, or if you are merely realistic about the odds facing you? Then the argument swings toward maximizing the draft payout. I'm not saying Fabian lacks confidence. But for so many of these guys, the draft payday IS the biggest one they ever receive. As for the O's, well, that's the advantage of drafting high that I talked about earlier. It isn't just the #4 pick that matters, it's the high picks in each round. IF Fabian did have a conversation with the O's and they told him they'd give him $3 million, that's all well and good. Does that mean that Fabian was checking his circumstances figuring he might fall as far as he did, or farther? That would suggest that maybe he does have at least a realistic view of where he was going to be selected, and maybe a pessimistic view. There are 9 players taken in Rd. 1 who signed for less than 3M. Seven of the 9 signed for under slot. It's not unreasonable to think that Fabian would have to go top 20 in Rd. 1 next year in order to get 3M.
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Post by patford on Jul 28, 2021 8:47:31 GMT -5
Interesting: twitter.com/BrianEGreen2Brian E Green @brianegreen2 Wife to Vicky and Father of Payton & Taylor Grace. Joined March 2018 |
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