SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2021 Draft Signing Period
|
|
Post by auger1 on Jul 28, 2021 8:49:08 GMT -5
Just to jump a few pages back, on MLB Pipeline Callis said Fabian would’ve gotten $3M from Baltimore at pick 41. I don’t think Chaim was looking to roll the pick, he just took advantage of the fact that it’s a draft and took the best player on his board. They liked him at the beginning of the year, so he’s worth making a run at. Jim also said that Hickey might be getting $1M, which is what we'd also been kind of getting at. My jaw dropped the first time I heard that. That is f’ing insane! Is the intel that Bloom and the brass were aware that Hickey wanted that much?! So, there’s either some heavy posturing from both Fabian and Hickey or this is really looking like an either/or proposition… Should have stayed away from the Gainesville campus! |
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 28, 2021 8:51:18 GMT -5
Interesting: twitter.com/BrianEGreen2Brian E Green @brianegreen2 Wife to Vicky and Father of Payton & Taylor Grace. Joined March 2018 If both Hickey and Fabian didn't sign the most the Sox could offer Green would be $845K I'm not sure what his bonus demands are......but something tells me that might not even get them 1/2 way home. |
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 28, 2021 8:54:54 GMT -5
Maybe both Fabian and Hickey realize there's only 3 million left between the two of them and they're just having fun, seeing who can get the most amount and they both sign anyways.
Source: my brain.
|
|
|
|
Post by jchang on Jul 28, 2021 9:09:45 GMT -5
to reframe the objective assessment with regard to Fabian, we could use the success rate of the #40 pick, or if we consider that Jud "could" have been a #23 pick based on his MLB draftee rank (too bad there isn't an easy to assess draft success by pre-draft ranking?). In either case, close to 50% make the majors, and about 5 or 6 (in 50 years between 1965-2014) have double digit WAR.
Making it to the majors should entail 2-3 of of MLB minimum? and perhaps a couple of arbitration year salary bumps?
It is the double digit WAR (may be 6+) guys that will be in a position to get fat free-agent contracts?
With this and perhaps additional detail, how does Fabian play his cards? with respect to fishing for a big bonus?
I have no basis for this, but lets say the probability of Fabian getting a 3M+ signing bonus (slot 22 money) next year is 10%, versus the 2-2.6M the sox can offer him this year. Which fish should he be hunting for?
|
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 28, 2021 9:32:41 GMT -5
to reframe the objective assessment with regard to Fabian, we could use the success rate of the #40 pick, or if we consider that Jud "could" have been a #23 pick based on his MLB draftee rank (too bad there isn't an easy to assess draft success by pre-draft ranking?). In either case, close to 50% make the majors, and about 5 or 6 (in 50 years between 1965-2014) have double digit WAR. Making it to the majors should entail 2-3 of of MLB minimum? and perhaps a couple of arbitration year salary bumps? It is the double digit WAR (may be 6+) guys that will be in a position to get fat free-agent contracts? With this and perhaps additional detail, how does Fabian play his cards? with respect to fishing for a big bonus? I have no basis for this, but lets say the probability of Fabian getting a 3M+ signing bonus (slot 22 money) next year is 10%, versus the 2-2.6M the sox can offer him this year. Which fish should he be hunting for? 10%? I don't think that's even a question.
My own calculation would be something like: if you offered me a guaranteed, say, $2.4 million now, OR a 97% chance at $3 million but a 3% chance of $125,000 or less, I would take the $2.4 million.
There's just a huge difference in marginal utility between $125,000 and $2.4 million - it's the difference between getting a nice big paycheck and being set for life, assuming you're not dumb about money - whereas the difference between $2.4 million and $3 million is, what, an extra bedroom on your McMansion?
|
|
|
|
Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 28, 2021 9:38:18 GMT -5
If you tell teams that you want $3M, a team (the Orioles) tells you that they’ll give you that, but another team (the Red Sox) drafts you first and only offers you (say) $2.3M, that would be super frustrating! It would feel like that second team just stole $700,000 (life changing money) from you! Even if, now that you’ve been drafted by a team that doesn’t have the flexibility to offer you more than that, the realistic best decision for you is just to take what they can offer you, you might be tempted to say “eff these guys, I’ll just reenter the draft next year.” There’s also the agent’s incentive to not sign so that future bonus demands are more credible. I hate to sound entitled but I imagine that some of that $700K difference is made up in the difference between being drafted by the Red Sox, a team that is close to a perennial contender and luxury tax spender, and the Orioles. I don't expect a young kid to be that forward thinking but I think he can make that money back dozens of times over instead of sticking it out in Baltimore and switching teams as a FA. And not to knock Fabian but statistically speaking he'd be lucky to have that opportunity to switch teams. And while $700K is a lot of money, I think the difference between $0 and $700K is a lot bigger than the difference between $2.3M and $3M. In other words $700K becomes more marginal when you already have $2.3M in hand. |
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2021 9:38:24 GMT -5
There’s a huge marginal difference between $2.4M and $3M. That’s $600,000! Even if he signs, odds are (unfortunately) that it’s unlikely that he will make meaningful money playing baseball, which means that that money is, what, a decade+ of living expenses?
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,867 
|
Post by cdj on Jul 28, 2021 9:48:53 GMT -5
Ok so we’ll wait until Green hits UFA in a decade and we have a leg up on him, niiiiiiice
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 28, 2021 10:23:34 GMT -5
There’s a huge marginal difference between $2.4M and $3M. That’s $600,000! Even if he signs, odds are (unfortunately) that it’s unlikely that he will make meaningful money playing baseball, which means that that money is, what, a decade+ of living expenses? I mean, it has to be real money though. Until he gets drafted and gets that money, it's theoretical money. He doesn't have $2.4M or $2.1M or whatever is being offered in the bank. Turning down $2.4M and getting $0 is worse than accepting it and losing the opportunity at another $600k. In this year's draft, 18 guys have gotten >$3M so far (Leiter, Lawlar, Rocker, House, Watson yet to sign - all would get above that), and all but two were taken 22nd or sooner, which is the last $3M+ slot pick. The other 2nd-rounders yet to sign - Zavala, Bliss - don't seem like guys who'd sign for that much. To me, this shows us that to get that money next year, he only reasonably can be banking on being selected that high, not on finding another overslot deal in round 2. I think Fabian's agent has an interest, in both his own interest and his client's, in making this a tough negotiation for the Red Sox. However, it's one hell of a gamble for him to go back to school if the reason is because his price is $3M and that's what he's signing for. The only real way for him to get that next year as a COVID senior is going to be to be picked in the top 23 or so picks (assuming the slots increase). Maybe he will! But he's going to have to hit better than he did this year because if he shows strikeout issues again, that is potentially going to scare teams off. If he puts up another 30+% K rate, I'd be stunned if he went in the first round. It really all depends on the part we don't know - what the Red Sox are offering. If they're only offering like $2M I get it. If they're offering $2.5M he's nuts if he doesn't take it, because while that is life-changing money, in the context of the MLB draft, you're literally talking the difference between the slot value this year of picks like 22 and 28. He would also be re-entering the draft in a better year for college hitters (I don't know much about next year, but this year was pretty awful for that demographic). I just don't see how it makes sense for Fabian not to sign unless the Red Sox are really lowballing him. |
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2021 10:28:37 GMT -5
That’s my point. It probably doesn’t make sense from a bean-counting perspective to turn down the Red Sox offer. But he may be understandably pissed off about them popping him a few picks before he was promised $3M and turn them down out of spite.
|
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 28, 2021 10:29:50 GMT -5
There’s a huge marginal difference between $2.4M and $3M. That’s $600,000! Even if he signs, odds are (unfortunately) that it’s unlikely that he will make meaningful money playing baseball, which means that that money is, what, a decade+ of living expenses? But you can't cite the absolute value as an indication of marginal utility; you wouldn't say "there's a huge marginal difference between $1,000,000,000 and $1,000,600,000 - that's $600,000!"
What does he keep after agent fees and taxes on $2.4 million - like $1.5 million? (No idea how the taxes work.) If that's invested fairly conservatively it could return $75,000 a year, which is enough to live on, if he wants to, or to have the security to pursue any kind of career he wants, even if the whole baseball thing doesn't pan out.
$3 million, which might be $2 million after fees and taxes, could return $100,000/year, which is just ditto all of the above plus a bit more money to play with.
|
|
|
|
Post by greenmonster on Jul 28, 2021 10:43:51 GMT -5
If Fabian returns to school for a Covid-Senior season, what kind of bargaining position would he have next year? He might be looking at a $125k take it or leave it offer.... If he were my kid, I would be encouraging him to sign the deal and not look back.
|
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 28, 2021 10:44:44 GMT -5
I just don't see how it makes sense for Fabian not to sign unless the Red Sox are really lowballing him. That's the thing, we don't know what they're offering him. Is it 2.3? 2.5? It has to be low if they're going to come close to Hickey's demands. If Hickey doesn't sign I think they can offer him somewhere around $2.67. I wonder if the Sox have not budged from where they're and he's turning them down or if they've had conversations about having to pick between him and Hickey. Because if they did, then they could offer him that 2.67 figure. If that was the case, then they obviously have to wait for one guy to sign before they can sign the other, which is why I think this comes down to the deadline if they're both signed. I have a harder time believing he couldn't settle for that higher figure but I know nothing. I guess we are all going to find out one way or another. |
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on Jul 28, 2021 10:45:55 GMT -5
That’s my point. It probably doesn’t make sense from a bean-counting perspective to turn down the Red Sox offer. But he may be understandably pissed off about them popping him a few picks before he was promised $3M and turn them down out of spite. Exactly…I mean the rumor is that the orioles 1 pick later was going to give him 3…which I’m sure the agent told them. If true I can understand Jud being a little put out. But hey…in the end 2.1 or so to play for the Red Sox…not the worst result. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 28, 2021 11:23:00 GMT -5
That’s my point. It probably doesn’t make sense from a bean-counting perspective to turn down the Red Sox offer. But he may be understandably pissed off about them popping him a few picks before he was promised $3M and turn them down out of spite. I guess then I'm focused more on how irrational and stupid refusing to sign with them out of spite would be. He graduated from HS early to matriculate at UF and get his college career started a year earlier. It's not like this is some guy who was just strolling along in his career and then suddenly realized he was an MLB draft prospect. We can assume he and his camp are informed, rational actors. Turning down a Red Sox offer of, say, $2.4M or higher would be completely irrational and just silly. If we're lower than that, it gets more rational the lower it goes. |
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 28, 2021 11:32:01 GMT -5
That’s my point. It probably doesn’t make sense from a bean-counting perspective to turn down the Red Sox offer. But he may be understandably pissed off about them popping him a few picks before he was promised $3M and turn them down out of spite. He graduated from HS early to matriculate at UF and get his college career started a year earlier. It's not like this is some guy who was just strolling along in his career and then suddenly realized he was an MLB draft prospect. We can assume he and his camp are informed, rational actors. Turning down a Red Sox offer of, say, $2.4M or higher would be completely irrational and just silly. If we're lower than that, it gets more rational the lower it goes. But that's kind of the unfortunate (borderline bush league) position the Red Sox have put him in though right? I mean yeah, he should be thrilled about a $2M to $2.5M offer to play professional ball, but if he had a $3M deal in place, and the Red Sox knew this and willingly prevented him from signing that deal, he should be understandably pissed. I don't know, I'm not loving the way we handled this assuming all of these reports are true and some of our assumptions are sound. |
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2021 11:35:08 GMT -5
I guess then I'm focused more on how irrational and stupid refusing to sign with them out of spite would be. He graduated from HS early to matriculate at UF and get his college career started a year earlier. It's not like this is some guy who was just strolling along in his career and then suddenly realized he was an MLB draft prospect. We can assume he and his camp are informed, rational actors. Turning down a Red Sox offer of, say, $2.4M or higher would be completely irrational and just silly. If we're lower than that, it gets more rational the lower it goes. But that's kind of the unfortunate (borderline bush league) position the Red Sox have put him in though right? I mean yeah, he should be thrilled about a $2M to $2.5M offer to play professional ball, but if he had a $3M deal in place, and the Red Sox knew this and willingly prevented him from signing that deal, he should be understandably pissed. I don't know, I'm not loving the way we handled this assuming all of these reports are true and some of our assumptions are sound. I don't think that's even remotely close to bush league and, if you think it is, I feel like you'd be real horrified to learn about a lot of what goes down in the business of sports (speaking as someone who has spent their entire career working in the industry). |
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Jul 28, 2021 11:35:19 GMT -5
I guess then I'm focused more on how irrational and stupid refusing to sign with them out of spite would be. He graduated from HS early to matriculate at UF and get his college career started a year earlier. It's not like this is some guy who was just strolling along in his career and then suddenly realized he was an MLB draft prospect. We can assume he and his camp are informed, rational actors. Turning down a Red Sox offer of, say, $2.4M or higher would be completely irrational and just silly. If we're lower than that, it gets more rational the lower it goes. But that's kind of the unfortunate (borderline bush league) position the Red Sox have put him in though right? I mean yeah, he should be thrilled about a $2M to $2.5M offer to play professional ball, but if he had a $3M deal in place, and the Red Sox knew this and willingly prevented him from signing that deal, he should be understandably pissed. I don't know, I'm not loving the way we handled this assuming all of these reports are true and some of our assumptions are sound. I can see your point of view and maybe agree with it on some level but at the end of the day this is a draft and it's kind of tough luck for Fabian in my mind. I don't see why the Red sox should have said oh well someone offered him 3 million so we'll move on if they liked the player. It's not free agency so Fabian can either take the Red sox offer or be pissed at them for taking him and offering less than he was offered even though that team didn't pick him. |
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 28, 2021 11:38:22 GMT -5
Sorry if this is explained above, but why are they doing this thing of going $2,500 under the round number on most of their draft picks?
|
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jul 28, 2021 11:39:39 GMT -5
Sorry if this is explained above, but why are they doing this thing of going $2,500 under the round number on most of their draft picks? It's an accounting trick, IIRC. |
|
|
|
Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 28, 2021 11:41:49 GMT -5
Regardless of what happens with Fabian and Hickey, I just want the record to state that I've hated the University of Florida for 15+ years so people don't accuse me of jumping on the bandwagon.
A silver lining of Fabian (potentially) not signing is that one of two things has to happen. Either A: Fabian's gamble does not pay off and he does not replicate his draft position next year which likely means that we don't regret not signing him or B: Fabian's gamble does pay off and he is a 1st rounder next year which has an admittedly minute ripple effect and possibly pushes down someone that would not have been available to us if Fabian wasn't in the draft pool. ie if Fabian goes 10th, then whoever the team picking 10th would have picked is still on the board, which effects the next picks etc.
|
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 28, 2021 11:41:58 GMT -5
Sorry if this is explained above, but why are they doing this thing of going $2,500 under the round number on most of their draft picks? It's an accounting trick, IIRC. I figured, but what's the trick? |
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on Jul 28, 2021 11:44:06 GMT -5
This is not the first time the Red Sox have taken someone that might have had a deal for more at a later pick. Aside from Groome I believe also Jon Denney had a deal later they also pick pocketed the Yankees on Williams Jerez. Teams do not have to comply with this “deals” if his agents and him are mad tough luck, go back to school. They are gonna make MLB hard cap every pick which is gonna be worse for them.
|
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 28, 2021 11:48:50 GMT -5
If teams were to comply with other teams' deals then what's the point of having a draft? Teams make those deals on the presumption they fall to a spot, agent, team, and player should know that may not happen.
|
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Jul 28, 2021 11:51:56 GMT -5
I can understand feeling sympathy for Fabian. It's normal to feel that there is some injustice when one side has too much power in a negotiation. The villain here is the draft system itself, which fundamentally exists to strip negotiating power away from players as they enter professional baseball. The Red Sox have done a very normal job of responding to the incentives presented to them. I don't think it's fair to expect them to hand wins to the Baltimore Orioles.
|
|
|
