SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
7/30-8/1 Red Sox @ Rays Thread
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 1, 2021 22:07:57 GMT -5
No, manfred, which is why I didn't say anything like that they should have gotten points for that. It's just that they had bad luck, as they have had for the last few games, in the BABIP and sequencing departments. On balance they've had more good luck than bad. Just not the last few days.
I continue to find it weird that people think that trade deadline was demoralizing. (And I didn't realize you were one of them!) Here's a prediction: Schwarber will help the offense and Sale will help the pitching and the Red Sox will have added more talent than any team in the division. It's coming after a 10-day delay, which feels like an excruciatingly long wait at the moment, but I suspect the mood will perk up.
I didn’t find it demoralizing. It was a bit of a bummer for me just from the shiny-new-toy standpoint, but I got the non-moves. And if Schwarber is back soon, that is a very good get (and what I view as a very low price). But I don’t think people who were demoralized are off base, if that makes sense. I’m not one of them, but I don’t view it as right/wrong, because a lot of it is just a feeling. I would have loved Scherzer, though!! Well Manfred, I've been demoralized to some degree ever since Mookie left town. I do think the team this year is more fun than I had hoped - but I think they teased us a bit in the first half - I am both a realist and an avid fan, and having been a Sox fan for 54 years, it exercizes the emotions for sure. I am also a trade deadline "meh" guy - I get all of the arguments on why what happened happened...but....meh. I do think Cora is squeezing out everything he can, but his hands are tied with the starters and hitters limitations.
|
|
|
Post by kjkramer on Aug 1, 2021 22:31:39 GMT -5
JDM looks like a declining player. On top of last year's lousy year, he's just decent, not great, this year. And that's with a .336 BABIP. He scorched in April with an OPS of 1.175 but that was driven by a .387 BABIP. I have to think CB would love for him to opt out after this year, though there seems to be uncertainty on this board about whether he can. Worst case scenario is that we have to wait until after the '22 season to lose his $22M AAV. Agreed. JDM is DEFINITELY in decline. He is not the same player. I suspect he will have glimpses of his old self but those will get fewer and fewer. He is not feared anymore
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Aug 1, 2021 22:31:53 GMT -5
No, manfred, which is why I didn't say anything like that they should have gotten points for that. It's just that they had bad luck, as they have had for the last few games, in the BABIP and sequencing departments. On balance they've had more good luck than bad. Just not the last few days.
I continue to find it weird that people think that trade deadline was demoralizing. (And I didn't realize you were one of them!) Here's a prediction: Schwarber will help the offense and Sale will help the pitching and the Red Sox will have added more talent than any team in the division. It's coming after a 10-day delay, which feels like an excruciatingly long wait at the moment, but I suspect the mood will perk up.
I didn’t find it demoralizing. It was a bit of a bummer for me just from the shiny-new-toy standpoint, but I got the non-moves. And if Schwarber is back soon, that is a very good get (and what I view as a very low price). But I don’t think people who were demoralized are off base, if that makes sense. I’m not one of them, but I don’t view it as right/wrong, because a lot of it is just a feeling. I would have loved Scherzer, though!! The strange thing about the demoralization is that I think the Rays, Jays, and Red Sox all added about the same amount of talent. It's fair to point out that the Rays got 3 more weeks of Cruz than we get of Schwarber (though he also went 3-13 in this series with 0 XBH's and 1 TOOTBLAN). But it's also fair to point out they gave up a lot more. And the price the Jays paid for Berrios (comparable in WAR terms to Cruz and Schwarber, I think) was totally bonkers. The Yankees got more than the Red Sox but they also gave up more, and whatever, like the Jays they're fighting for the privilege of a coin flip play-in game.
My own feeling is that I wish we had added a real bullpen arm (and if Robles or Austin prove to be that then Bloom should be given his wizard's license straightaway), but also they got a bigger piece on the offensive side than I was expecting.
I wonder if the mood would have been different if the Schwarber news had dropped closer to the deadline. It felt like there was going to be another shoe to drop there and then it... didn't. And by then Schwarber was old news so it felt like they did less than they did. And then this waiting for him to come off the IL only adds to that sense...
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 1, 2021 22:43:08 GMT -5
I didn’t find it demoralizing. It was a bit of a bummer for me just from the shiny-new-toy standpoint, but I got the non-moves. And if Schwarber is back soon, that is a very good get (and what I view as a very low price). But I don’t think people who were demoralized are off base, if that makes sense. I’m not one of them, but I don’t view it as right/wrong, because a lot of it is just a feeling. I would have loved Scherzer, though!! The strange thing about the demoralization is that I think the Rays, Jays, and Red Sox all added about the same amount of talent. It's fair to point out that the Rays got 3 more weeks of Cruz than we get of Schwarber (though he also went 3-13 in this series with 0 XBH's and 1 TOOTBLAN). But it's also fair to point out they gave up a lot more. And the price the Jays paid for Berrios (comparable in WAR terms to Cruz and Schwarber, I think) was totally bonkers. The Yankees got more than the Red Sox but they also gave up more, and whatever, like the Jays they're fighting for the privilege of a coin flip play-in game. My own feeling is that I wish we had added a real bullpen arm (and if Robles or Austin prove to be that then Bloom should be given his wizard's license straightaway), but also they got a bigger piece on the offensive side than I was expecting. I wonder if the mood would have been different if the Schwarber news had dropped closer to the deadline. It felt like there was going to be another shoe to drop there and then it... didn't. And by then Schwarber was old news so it felt like they did less than they did. And then this waiting for him to come off the IL only adds to that sense...
I don't think it's that. I think most are happy with Schwarber but his impact isn't felt because he is still a ways away. By then with he and Sale not ready they could find themselves closer to the Yankees than the Ray's by then. And then there is the question of whether he can learn 1b on the fly and be viable. If he can't then I suppose he goes to LF with Verdugo going to CF given Duran's struggles. Like you I feel that they missed out on upgrading and deepening their pen. I don't trust Robles or Davis to be good enough to be on a post season roster and given how bad their rotation has been and how overworked their pen is, they got nothing. And there's no impact from Schwarber for awhile so it's wait and hope they don't drown until Sale returns. Now both Brasier and Arroyo's returns are crucial too. But who knows if Sale will be Sale or if Brasier contributes.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,928
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 1, 2021 22:48:07 GMT -5
Sorry, I had to do the math here.
Sox had 19 PA with bases empty and hit .412 / .474 / .647.
They had 20 PA with runners on and hit .056 / .150 / .056.
There were 10 expected hard hits, and we had 7 of them. JDM's deep fly to CF was a barreled 107.0, .730 xBA, and Raffie's rocket right at Meadows was 104.6, .730. Diaz's rounder right at Xander in the 2nd was 107.6, .670. They had Lowe's HR and Wander's liner off Whitlock, we had Renfore's homer, Verdugo's 2B (hardest ball of the day), Raffie's 1B in the first and Kiké's in the 5th and 7th.
They had 5 expected cheap hits (4 actually hits) to our 3 (all hits). We had a 5 to 2 edge in expected hard outs. We were 0/10 on expected soft outs and they were 1/15 (Kiermeir's infield hit off Whitlock).
We drew four walks, they had one, which of course was immediately before their HR.
Game in a nutshell: each team hit into a GDP.
102.5, .410, Raffy 76.2, .060, Choi.
In that fifth inning we went 102.0, 102.5, 107.0 with 2.0 expected hits and didn't net a baserunner. Subtracting the GDP's (weighted by xBA) and their baserunning blunder, we had exactly twice as many expected baserunners, 13.3 to 7.7, and had a virtual error (the PB turning an out into a baserunner) and a WP with a man on 3rd ... and we still lost by a run.
At least we had the pleasure of listening to an ace announcing crew.
|
|
|
Post by soxaddict on Aug 2, 2021 1:05:34 GMT -5
Tough series against a tough team. That being said, I think they need to shake things up.
Duran needs more time in AAA, as does Dalbec, but I'm not sure they can do much til Schwarber is healthy.
For the moth of July, Vazquez slashed .236/.304/.292/.595. Plawecki needs to get more starts.
I'd like to see Yario Munoz called up and bat 2nd. Munoz's career slash line vs RHP is .279/.318/.398/.716 vs LHP .278/.366/.414/.780.
Alternate the lead off spot between Kiki and Verdugo. (2021 stats) Kiki lead off vs LHP .263/.353/.511/.864. vs RHP .235/.305/.422/.727 Verdugo lead off vs RHP .313/.392/.517/.909. vs LHP .200/.243/.236/.479
CF - Kiki 2B - Munoz 3B - Devers SS - Bogaerts DH - Martinez LF - Verdugo RF - Renfroe 1B - Cordero/Dalbec C - Plawecki/Vazquez
UTIL - Arauz
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Aug 2, 2021 3:45:32 GMT -5
Tough series against a tough team. That being said, I think they need to shake things up. Duran needs more time in AAA, as does Dalbec, but I'm not sure they can do much til Schwarber is healthy. For the moth of July, Vazquez slashed .236/.304/.292/.595. Plawecki needs to get more starts. I'd like to see Yario Munoz called up and bat 2nd.  Munoz's career slash line vs RHP is .279/.318/.398/.716 vs LHP .278/.366/.414/.780.  Alternate the lead off spot between Kiki and Verdugo. (2021 stats) Kiki lead off vs LHP .263/.353/.511/.864. vs RHP .235/.305/.422/.727 Verdugo lead off vs RHP .313/.392/.517/.909. vs LHP .200/.243/.236/.479
CF - Kiki 2B - Munoz 3B - Devers SS - Bogaerts DH - Martinez LF - Verdugo RF - Renfroe 1B - Cordero/Dalbec C - Plawecki/Vazquez UTIL - Arauz
 I agree. I really want to let Dalbec grow and get more ABs but batting behind Vazquez is killing us right now. Im missing Arroyo big time. I’ve grown into a huge fan and I would be 100% ok with Arroyo at 1st, Schwarber in LF and Verdugo in CF with Kiké at 2nd full time when they are healthy. I think thats our best bet.
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 2, 2021 6:20:19 GMT -5
Sox simply got outplayed this series. If anything this was a reminder of how badly this team needed another starter at the deadline.
|
|
|
Post by fanofredsox on Aug 2, 2021 7:12:44 GMT -5
Sale needs to start Friday vs Toronto. It’s time, no more waiting, no more re hab. He’s needed. The club needs a boost, Bloom didn’t provide one so he’s it. No excuses.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,030
|
Post by cdj on Aug 2, 2021 7:14:43 GMT -5
If I see another person imply Bloom did nothing at the deadline i am throwing my phone into the ocean
|
|
|
Post by fanofredsox on Aug 2, 2021 7:18:25 GMT -5
If I see another person imply Bloom did nothing at the deadline i am throwing my phone into the ocean I don’t believe you, because it’s going to happen & I bet you need your phone
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Aug 2, 2021 7:41:10 GMT -5
Eh, iPhones are water resistant these days.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Aug 2, 2021 7:47:07 GMT -5
Sale needs to start Friday vs Toronto. It’s time, no more waiting, no more re hab. He’s needed. The club needs a boost, Bloom didn’t provide one so he’s it. No excuses. If they continue to struggle this week I think Chaim might agree with you. The team could use a shot in the arm to get them turned around and Sale could be it.
|
|
Jimmy
Veteran
Posts: 627
Member is Online
|
Post by Jimmy on Aug 2, 2021 8:20:35 GMT -5
Sale needs to start Friday vs Toronto. It’s time, no more waiting, no more re hab. He’s needed. The club needs a boost, Bloom didn’t provide one so he’s it. No excuses. They’ve been patient with him to this point, no need to rush it this close to the finish line
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Aug 2, 2021 9:07:14 GMT -5
If I see another person imply Bloom did nothing at the deadline i am throwing my phone into the ocean Can we get video of this?
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Aug 2, 2021 9:09:43 GMT -5
Sale needs to start Friday vs Toronto. It’s time, no more waiting, no more re hab. He’s needed. The club needs a boost, Bloom didn’t provide one so he’s it. No excuses. They’ve been patient with him to this point, no need to rush it this close to the finish line Another analogy may be more effective here. Unless one is leading the race by an insurmountable distance, one (or two or five) always rush when they are close to the finish line. Unless, of course, they don't wish to win or the contest has already been decided.
|
|
|
Post by fanofredsox on Aug 2, 2021 9:10:00 GMT -5
Eh, iPhones are water resistant these days. Yea I know, but I was picturing it more like being thrown out into the ocean rather then being dropped next to you while you got your toes in the surf.
|
|
|
Post by patford on Aug 2, 2021 9:37:05 GMT -5
I threw my i-Phone in the water because Bloom didn't sell at the deadline.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,030
|
Post by cdj on Aug 2, 2021 11:54:11 GMT -5
Eh, iPhones are water resistant these days. Yea I know, but I was picturing it more like being thrown out into the ocean rather then being dropped next to you while you got your toes in the surf. Yeah this things getting eaten by a Tiger Shark along with license plates and whatever else it finds, it’s going way deep So like what do we do today? Worcester on TV?
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Aug 2, 2021 11:55:42 GMT -5
Real fans throw their phones in the Mariana trench.
|
|
|
Post by reasonabledoubt on Aug 2, 2021 12:39:33 GMT -5
If I see another person imply Bloom did nothing at the deadline i am throwing my phone into the ocean If you do here's a tip. I once got so mad at my daughter (I love her, but it's complicated) I attempted to throw my iPhone into a lake at a park I was walking in. I held it vertically between my thumb and index finger and gave it a heave as hard as I could. It curved like a bloomin' boomerang and instead of landing in the middle of the lake it landed way to the left in the inches deep shallows. I almost missed the lake! That even made me madder. An older gentleman sitting on a bench nearby saw me and said, "Did I just see what I think I just saw?" Still angry and now embarrassed that I almost missed, I said "Yes, next time I'm throwing it horizontally!", as I marched passed him. Got a Samsung a week later. Hopefully that one will go where directed it if the situation arises again.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Aug 2, 2021 13:07:02 GMT -5
JDM looks like a declining player. On top of last year's lousy year, he's just decent, not great, this year. And that's with a .336 BABIP. He scorched in April with an OPS of 1.175 but that was driven by a .387 BABIP. I have to think CB would love for him to opt out after this year, though there seems to be uncertainty on this board about whether he can. Worst case scenario is that we have to wait until after the '22 season to lose his $22M AAV. Either that or he looks like someone who is in a slump.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 2, 2021 13:19:49 GMT -5
Could be. I'll grant you that I'm calling him out at a time when his season may be at its low point. He could get hot and his numbers could look much different at the end of the August (fingers crossed). But here are his xwOBAs each year starting in 2016: .393, .423; .412, .389, .316, .368.
He'll turn 34 this month.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Aug 2, 2021 13:23:15 GMT -5
JDM looks like a declining player. On top of last year's lousy year, he's just decent, not great, this year. And that's with a .336 BABIP. He scorched in April with an OPS of 1.175 but that was driven by a .387 BABIP. I have to think CB would love for him to opt out after this year, though there seems to be uncertainty on this board about whether he can. Worst case scenario is that we have to wait until after the '22 season to lose his $22M AAV. Either that or he looks like someone who is in a slump. His xwOBAs have followed a very smooth trajectory, save for the 2020 outlier:
2015: .382 2016: .393 2017: .423 2018: .412 2019: .389 2020: .316 2021: .368
His 2017 peak was his age 29 season, a very typical peak. He's 33 now. He might buck the trend - occasionally guys do - but there would be nothing unusual about this pattern continuing through a pretty much linear decline.
Having said that, I think the team is fine either way. If he opts out, they have money to add more offense (Schwarber, for one, looks like he's on the about-to-peak portion of the same trajectory); if he doesn't, he should still be decent next season, if not quite the hitter he was 3-4 years ago.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 2, 2021 14:49:03 GMT -5
Here's the visual for that (click to expand): I added trend to that, one that has a little (but not too much flexibility!). There is an evolutionary track for players and he seems to be on it. Like yourself, I don't think it's the end of the world. It will be interesting to see what he decides at the end of the year. That will probably be conditioned on how the rest of this season goes for him.
|
|
|