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8/13-8/15 Red Sox vs. Orioles Thread
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Post by patford on Aug 14, 2021 9:28:37 GMT -5
Am i the only person who is willing to be patient with Bobby? Everyone’s always calling for his head. The poor kid has been the 9 hitter almost the whole season. He’s a rookie. Does everyone expect him to be rookie of the year? I figured .240 and 25 Homers would be a successful season for him. I figured he would be Joey Gallo. Which is to say he would hit around .209 and have 25 HR by now. And since Joey Gallo is a HUGE star addition to the Yankees I have to wonder what would be wrong with a .209 average and 25 HR. I actually thought the 25 HR would be the given part. I joked on the forum if it would be worth it if a player (any player) had 500 PA and hit 50 HR for a .100 BA. Anyhow I'm still in on giving Dalbec more time. He has not reached the Michael Chavis (I've seen enough of this guy) level for me yet.
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Post by manfred on Aug 14, 2021 9:32:33 GMT -5
Am i the only person who is willing to be patient with Bobby? Everyone’s always calling for his head. The poor kid has been the 9 hitter almost the whole season. He’s a rookie. Does everyone expect him to be rookie of the year? I figured .240 and 25 Homers would be a successful season for him. I figured he would be Joey Gallo. Which is to say he would hit around .209 and have 25 HR by now. And since Joey Gallo is a HUGE star addition to the Yankees I have to wonder what would be wrong with a .209 average and 25 HR. I actually thought the 25 HR would be the given part. I joked on the forum if it would be worth it if a player (any player) had 500 PA and hit 50 HR for a .100 BA. Anyhow I'm still in on giving Dalbec more time. He has not reached the Michael Chavis (I've seen enough of this guy) level for me yet. I hate Gallo, and the player you describe would make watching games miserable. But Gallo also walks and is a GG rightfielder. So there is more to it than hitting homeruns.
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 14, 2021 9:56:58 GMT -5
Seconded. He has days where he's short to the ball with a quick bat and others where he seems to be back to old habits. I still think he's going to be a .260/.350/.510 with 30+ HRs a year, at least. Hell, as bad as he's been he might get 20 bombs before the end of the season. Don't forget the 200+ Ks per year...
Maybe I'm the glass-half-empty guy here on Dalbec but I think we need to pump the brakes on his Cooperstown bandwagon after he crushed a couple barely-AAA Orioles ptichers -- a 28-yo rookie and a 30-yo rookie. These guys put the 'hurl' in hurlers. There is still way too much swing and miss in Dalbec's swiss-cheese bat and that didn't just go away because he got to play vs. BAL.
I get the benefit of patience but I also don't want to give anyone an extended try-out in a pennant race. If Schwarber can play 1B, I want him in there every day.
Talk about Sherman tanks.... Who said anything about Cooperstown.... are people not allowed to be optimistic about a guy who has shown flashes of being decent to good. Kiké got kicked around as much as anyone ever on here and look how he has rebounded. I don't think it is out of the question that Dalbec could maintain a 800 OPS for the remainder of the season and help win a few games. Who knows maybe something has clicked for him, he did have an OPS of 966 last Sept. At least wait to see if this trend continues before raining on the parade.
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Post by jmei on Aug 14, 2021 9:59:11 GMT -5
Remember, a point of OBP is worth about twice as much as a point of SLG. No matter how much power you have, it is just about impossible to be even an average offense player with a sub-.300 OBP, which is doubly true for a guy who plays mostly 1B (and is probably a below-average defender there).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 14, 2021 10:18:55 GMT -5
Raise your hand if you had an Orioles game as the most anticipated game of the year.
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 14, 2021 10:41:48 GMT -5
The Red Sox are like -260 today. That might be the biggest favorites they've been all season.
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 14, 2021 10:54:29 GMT -5
The Red Sox are like -260 today. That might be the biggest favorites they've been all season. I was going to post something similar, it is at -295 where I saw it.
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 14, 2021 11:00:00 GMT -5
Remember, a point of OBP is worth about twice as much as a point of SLG. No matter how much power you have, it is just about impossible to be even an average offense player with a sub-.300 OBP, which is doubly true for a guy who plays mostly 1B (and is probably a below-average defender there). Rain rain go away.... With the way this team has performed and is constructed I would think an 800+ OPS out of that slot in the lineup would be welcome considering the hole it has been most of the season. The bottom of the line up did a great job last night and he was a big reason for it, hope to see more.
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Post by soxinjersey on Aug 14, 2021 12:03:31 GMT -5
Am i the only person who is willing to be patient with Bobby? Everyone’s always calling for his head. The poor kid has been the 9 hitter almost the whole season. He’s a rookie. Does everyone expect him to be rookie of the year? I figured .240 and 25 Homers would be a successful season for him. Seconded. He has days where he's short to the ball with a quick bat and others where he seems to be back to old habits. I still think he's going to be a .260/.350/.510 with 30+ HRs a year, at least. Hell, as bad as he's been he might get 20 bombs before the end of the season. Has anyone else noticed how hard it has been for position players to make the transition from the high minors to the majors this year? Last I looked (a couple of days ago), Wander Franco had an OPS of .699, although he has killed the Sox. Ke'Bryan Hayes was at .700, although he was a leading preseason candidate for ROY because he hit so well last September. Even worse, Jarred Kelenic: .510 & Jo Adell: .478 (last year). These are all elite prospects. Clearly, the jump to the majors requires significant adjustments. Does Dalbec have the talent to make them? Does Duran? That's the question, and it has been painful at times watching them try, but it makes it easier for me to accept their failures when I see how hard it currently is for even the best prospects to make this jump to the majors now. A pennant race is not the ideal time to watch players struggle, but the upsides of both Dalbec and Duran make it possible for me to remain patient.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 14, 2021 12:36:37 GMT -5
There's been extreme specialization at the ML level so it's not all that surprising. I don't think that players in the minors have to face such a relentless parade of hard throwing relievers, all of whom have at least one high-powered secondary pitch. That's tough stuff.
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Guidas
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Post by Guidas on Aug 14, 2021 12:51:11 GMT -5
There's been extreme specialization at the ML level so it's not all that surprising. I don't think that players in the minors have to face such a relentless parade of hard throwing relievers, all of whom have at least one high-powered secondary pitch. That's tough stuff. It is always said, the biggest step to make is from AAA to MLB. We are hyperaware of the prospects here so many times it's easy to forget that. But look at how many future all stars struggled in their initial transition. Pitchers have always had the advantage in baseball, but, as we've been told, the jump to seeing AAA stuff and MLB stuff is "exponential." A lot of guys who have been stars or near stars in AAA never make it in MLB.
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Guidas
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Post by Guidas on Aug 14, 2021 13:09:40 GMT -5
Sale and Vazquez activated, Wong and Rios optioned.
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 14, 2021 13:14:50 GMT -5
Seconded. He has days where he's short to the ball with a quick bat and others where he seems to be back to old habits. I still think he's going to be a .260/.350/.510 with 30+ HRs a year, at least. Hell, as bad as he's been he might get 20 bombs before the end of the season. Has anyone else noticed how hard it has been for position players to make the transition from the high minors to the majors this year? Last I looked (a couple of days ago), Wander Franco had an OPS of .699, although he has killed the Sox. Ke'Bryan Hayes was at .700, although he was a leading preseason candidate for ROY because he hit so well last September. Even worse, Jarred Kelenic: .510 & Jo Adell: .478 (last year). These are all elite prospects. Clearly, the jump to the majors requires significant adjustments. Does Dalbec have the talent to make them? Does Duran? That's the question, and it has been painful at times watching them try, but it makes it easier for me to accept their failures when I see how hard it currently is for even the best prospects to make this jump to the majors now. A pennant race is not the ideal time to watch players struggle, but the upsides of both Dalbec and Duran make it possible for me to remain patient. Actually Chris and I have brought it up a few times dating back months ago when Kelenic failed so spectacularly. The same names have been thrown out there. Add our own guys like Duran and Franchy even. The difference between AAA and the ML is more than I can remember ever seeing. Covid and missed time is a probable cause I would imagine.
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cheers
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Post by cheers on Aug 14, 2021 13:18:07 GMT -5
Go Sale Go. Hoping for 5+ <2ER. Actually, hoping for a Maddux special complete game, but imma not gonna get that.
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 14, 2021 13:53:42 GMT -5
Sale and Vazquez activated, Wong and Rios optioned. I guess I shouldn't be surprised that Schwarber is sitting. Excited to see Sale though!!
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Aug 14, 2021 13:58:40 GMT -5
Seconded. He has days where he's short to the ball with a quick bat and others where he seems to be back to old habits. I still think he's going to be a .260/.350/.510 with 30+ HRs a year, at least. Hell, as bad as he's been he might get 20 bombs before the end of the season. At least??? So… ranging between all star and MVP votes? Wow. He’s been better. But I think it has been unusually patient to start (mostly) a rookie at a position while being last in the league there much of a season. I can’t remember so long a leash. There was no internal option to replace him, and the available trades were not that much better than Dalbec for the associated cost....
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Post by incandenza on Aug 14, 2021 14:07:21 GMT -5
I finally gave up on Franchy after the Tampa Bay series. Did the Red Sox do the same? Dalbec starting against a righty for the second straight day...
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Aug 14, 2021 14:16:28 GMT -5
Seconded. He has days where he's short to the ball with a quick bat and others where he seems to be back to old habits. I still think he's going to be a .260/.350/.510 with 30+ HRs a year, at least. Hell, as bad as he's been he might get 20 bombs before the end of the season. Has anyone else noticed how hard it has been for position players to make the transition from the high minors to the majors this year? Last I looked (a couple of days ago), Wander Franco had an OPS of .699, although he has killed the Sox. Ke'Bryan Hayes was at .700, although he was a leading preseason candidate for ROY because he hit so well last September. Even worse, Jarred Kelenic: .510 & Jo Adell: .478 (last year). These are all elite prospects. Clearly, the jump to the majors requires significant adjustments. Does Dalbec have the talent to make them? Does Duran? That's the question, and it has been painful at times watching them try, but it makes it easier for me to accept their failures when I see how hard it currently is for even the best prospects to make this jump to the majors now. A pennant race is not the ideal time to watch players struggle, but the upsides of both Dalbec and Duran make it possible for me to remain patient. We all should remember that Bogaerts (just one example) was not very good in his first full season either (BA .240 - OBP .297 - OPS .660 with subpar defense if memory serves me caused him to end up at 3B). Many players struggle to start their career, but the positive is 6 additional controllable years at a reasonable cost. The leash will stay long if you can save $10 to $20 million per year on a controllable player.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 14, 2021 14:41:22 GMT -5
Has anyone else noticed how hard it has been for position players to make the transition from the high minors to the majors this year? Last I looked (a couple of days ago), Wander Franco had an OPS of .699, although he has killed the Sox. Ke'Bryan Hayes was at .700, although he was a leading preseason candidate for ROY because he hit so well last September. Even worse, Jarred Kelenic: .510 & Jo Adell: .478 (last year). These are all elite prospects. Clearly, the jump to the majors requires significant adjustments. Does Dalbec have the talent to make them? Does Duran? That's the question, and it has been painful at times watching them try, but it makes it easier for me to accept their failures when I see how hard it currently is for even the best prospects to make this jump to the majors now. A pennant race is not the ideal time to watch players struggle, but the upsides of both Dalbec and Duran make it possible for me to remain patient. We all should remember that Bogaerts was not very good in his first full season either (BA .240 - OBP .297 - OPS .660 with subpar defense if memory serves me caused him to end up at 3B). Dalbec is at 416 career PAs. He's hit .236/.298/.459, 101 wRC+.
At the same stage in their careers:
Bogaerts: .237/.312/.349, 84 wRC+ Devers: .268/.316/.467, 98 wRC+ Betts: .266/.333/.417, 106 wRC+ Bradley: .216/.297/.316, 70 wRC+ Benintendi: .280/.346/.448, 106 wRC+
Stacks up pretty favorably. Of course Dalbec offers less defensive value than those guys and he's older than all of them were - heck, he's older than Devers is now.
I really think it comes down to the BB and K rates for Dalbec. I think getting those into manageable territory is both a necessary and sufficient condition for him to be a successful major leaguer. August has been promising - 14% BB rate, 29% K rate - but of course that's mostly platooning. And we'll see if he can keep it up.
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Post by manfred on Aug 14, 2021 14:52:38 GMT -5
We all should remember that Bogaerts was not very good in his first full season either (BA .240 - OBP .297 - OPS .660 with subpar defense if memory serves me caused him to end up at 3B). Dalbec is at 416 career PAs. He's hit .236/.298/.459, 101 wRC+.
At the same stage in their careers:
Bogaerts: .237/.312/.349, 84 wRC+ Devers: .268/.316/.467, 98 wRC+ Betts: .266/.333/.417, 106 wRC+ Bradley: .216/.297/.316, 70 wRC+ Benintendi: .280/.346/.448, 106 wRC+
Stacks up pretty favorably. Of course Dalbec offers less defensive value than those guys and he's older than all of them were - heck, he's older than Devers is now.
I really think it comes down to the BB and K rates for Dalbec. I think getting those into manageable territory is both a necessary and sufficient condition for him to be a successful major leaguer. August has been promising - 14% BB rate, 29% K rate - but of course that's mostly platooning. And we'll see if he can keep it up.
Dalbec may or may not end up being serviceable, but playing the “x player struggled and became a star” game is meaningless. I mean, it is basically this syllogism: X struggled his first year and is now a star. Dalbec is struggling. Ergo Dalbec will be a star. It isn’t just that he has struggled: it is that is struggles were actually recognizably within his range of outcomes. That is, if this is it, it wouldn’t be that surprising. If, say, Xander had never gotten better or if Franco doesn’t continue to get better, it’ll be shocking.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Aug 14, 2021 15:00:04 GMT -5
Dalbec is at 416 career PAs. He's hit .236/.298/.459, 101 wRC+.
At the same stage in their careers:
Bogaerts: .237/.312/.349, 84 wRC+ Devers: .268/.316/.467, 98 wRC+ Betts: .266/.333/.417, 106 wRC+ Bradley: .216/.297/.316, 70 wRC+ Benintendi: .280/.346/.448, 106 wRC+
Stacks up pretty favorably. Of course Dalbec offers less defensive value than those guys and he's older than all of them were - heck, he's older than Devers is now.
I really think it comes down to the BB and K rates for Dalbec. I think getting those into manageable territory is both a necessary and sufficient condition for him to be a successful major leaguer. August has been promising - 14% BB rate, 29% K rate - but of course that's mostly platooning. And we'll see if he can keep it up.
Dalbec may or may not end up being serviceable, but playing the “x player struggled and became a star” game is meaningless. I mean, it is basically this syllogism: X struggled his first year and is now a star. Dalbec is struggling. Ergo Dalbec will be a star. It isn’t just that he has struggled: it is that is struggles were actually recognizably within his range of outcomes. That is, if this is it, it wouldn’t be that surprising. If, say, Xander had never gotten better or if Franco doesn’t continue to get better, it’ll be shocking. Many players struggle their first full season! Dave Stapleton played 7 seasons for the Red Sox and each season was worse than the previous. My comment was not to say that because X struggled and became successful that Dalbec will, but simply to say that even successful players struggle. (Manfred you can always be counted on for a glass half empty take on comments). Lol
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Post by kjkramer on Aug 14, 2021 15:05:38 GMT -5
Sale day at last!!!! Would love to see Bobby keep progressing as well. Sox need to win 13+ of the next 20
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 14, 2021 15:11:29 GMT -5
Chills! Jealous my brother got to go today. Fingers crossed for one of my favorites ever
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Post by kjkramer on Aug 14, 2021 15:14:43 GMT -5
First K will be chills
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Post by incandenza on Aug 14, 2021 15:16:07 GMT -5
Dalbec is at 416 career PAs. He's hit .236/.298/.459, 101 wRC+.
At the same stage in their careers:
Bogaerts: .237/.312/.349, 84 wRC+ Devers: .268/.316/.467, 98 wRC+ Betts: .266/.333/.417, 106 wRC+ Bradley: .216/.297/.316, 70 wRC+ Benintendi: .280/.346/.448, 106 wRC+
Stacks up pretty favorably. Of course Dalbec offers less defensive value than those guys and he's older than all of them were - heck, he's older than Devers is now.
I really think it comes down to the BB and K rates for Dalbec. I think getting those into manageable territory is both a necessary and sufficient condition for him to be a successful major leaguer. August has been promising - 14% BB rate, 29% K rate - but of course that's mostly platooning. And we'll see if he can keep it up.
Dalbec may or may not end up being serviceable, but playing the “x player struggled and became a star” game is meaningless. I mean, it is basically this syllogism: X struggled his first year and is now a star. Dalbec is struggling. Ergo Dalbec will be a star. It isn’t just that he has struggled: it is that is struggles were actually recognizably within his range of outcomes. That is, if this is it, it wouldn’t be that surprising. If, say, Xander had never gotten better or if Franco doesn’t continue to get better, it’ll be shocking. It's not that Dalbec is struggling and will therefore become a star (which is obviously nonsensical). It's that Dalbec struggling doesn't mean he definitely won't become a star. Of course, if he does become a star he'll eventually have to stop struggling! But the comparisons suggest that we're not at the point where we can say that won't happen.
It certainly seems less likely than it did with Xander or than it does now than Franco. But is it less likely than it was for Josh Reddick? Travis Shaw? David Ortiz? Lars Anderson?
(You heard it here first: Bobby Dalbec's career trajectory will fall somewhere between David Ortiz and Lars Anderson.)
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