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Post by manfred on Aug 14, 2021 15:18:56 GMT -5
This new guy looks better than Perez.
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Post by manfred on Aug 14, 2021 15:20:42 GMT -5
Dalbec may or may not end up being serviceable, but playing the “x player struggled and became a star” game is meaningless. I mean, it is basically this syllogism: X struggled his first year and is now a star. Dalbec is struggling. Ergo Dalbec will be a star. It isn’t just that he has struggled: it is that is struggles were actually recognizably within his range of outcomes. That is, if this is it, it wouldn’t be that surprising. If, say, Xander had never gotten better or if Franco doesn’t continue to get better, it’ll be shocking. Many players struggle their first full season! Dave Stapleton played 7 seasons for the Red Sox and each season was worse than the previous. My comment was not to say that because X struggled and became successful that Dalbec will, but simply to say that even successful players struggle. (Manfred you can always be counted on for a glass half empty take on comments). Lol My point was not about glasses at all. Dalbec will rise or fall on his own, but the curve of other players, especially players with significantly higher expectations, doesn’t tell us anything. That’s all.
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Post by kjkramer on Aug 14, 2021 15:21:13 GMT -5
Sale can be very very good with 94mph, but I really hope that ramps up as it should. He did hit 96 on the last pitch but I like him sitting 96-97 and having 99-100 in the tank. Probably might be too much to hope to see that this year but that top velocity, combined with his off speed stuff make him the best pitcher in baseball in my opinion. Still Probably top 6-8 sitting 94mph so I am just being an ass. Lol
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Post by incandenza on Aug 14, 2021 15:24:54 GMT -5
A quick 7 or 8 runs to take the pressure off Sale would be nice.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 14, 2021 15:25:34 GMT -5
I'm thinking today's game is the season. Sale pitches well, is OK tomorrow, we're in good shape with our rotation and the team can go far. No pressure, Chris!
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,111
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Post by jimoh on Aug 14, 2021 15:26:29 GMT -5
We all should remember that Bogaerts was not very good in his first full season either (BA .240 - OBP .297 - OPS .660 with subpar defense if memory serves me caused him to end up at 3B). Dalbec is at 416 career PAs. He's hit .236/.298/.459, 101 wRC+.
At the same stage in their careers:
Bogaerts: .237/.312/.349, 84 wRC+ Devers: .268/.316/.467, 98 wRC+ Betts: .266/.333/.417, 106 wRC+ Bradley: .216/.297/.316, 70 wRC+ Benintendi: .280/.346/.448, 106 wRC+
Stacks up pretty favorably. Of course Dalbec offers less defensive value than those guys and he's older than all of them were - heck, he's older than Devers is now.
I really think it comes down to the BB and K rates for Dalbec. I think getting those into manageable territory is both a necessary and sufficient condition for him to be a successful major leaguer. August has been promising - 14% BB rate, 29% K rate - but of course that's mostly platooning. And we'll see if he can keep it up.
You're right to note that Dalbec is much older. But it's also good to note that his overall stats include his impressive 2020 and his troublesome 2021, where he has a 86 wRC+. His trajectory is going in the wrong direction, which seems to be mainly pitchers knowing where to put the ball so that he can't handle it. Was that true for anyone else?
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Post by vokuhila on Aug 14, 2021 15:27:20 GMT -5
F**K
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 14, 2021 15:28:29 GMT -5
Speier (I think) had a note about Sale not getting swinging strikes on his fastball in the minors, so I'm encouraged to see all the whiffs on the heater in the first.
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Post by greenmonster on Aug 14, 2021 15:28:41 GMT -5
might have dodged a bullet there
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Post by Guidas on Aug 14, 2021 15:31:39 GMT -5
WOW.
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Post by jmei on Aug 14, 2021 15:31:42 GMT -5
This is fun, huh?
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Post by vokuhila on Aug 14, 2021 15:31:49 GMT -5
Man Raffy got robbed of a salami by a wild pitch...sadface
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 14, 2021 15:32:00 GMT -5
Devers was robbed of a grand slam
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Aug 14, 2021 15:32:14 GMT -5
We’re saved!
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Aug 14, 2021 15:33:27 GMT -5
My girlfriend on Lopez: “if I was the orange squad I’d kick this guy out”
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Post by greenmonster on Aug 14, 2021 15:34:12 GMT -5
My girlfriend on Lopez: “if I was the orange squad I’d kick this guy out” She is a Keeper
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 14, 2021 15:34:52 GMT -5
Lopez 14 runs in 9 2/3 against us this year lol
With a 9-1 strikeout to walk ratio somehow
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Post by vokuhila on Aug 14, 2021 15:34:55 GMT -5
So...single, single, HBP, HR, double...no outs...welcome bach Mr Sale
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 14, 2021 15:34:55 GMT -5
Dalbec is at 416 career PAs. He's hit .236/.298/.459, 101 wRC+. At the same stage in their careers: Bogaerts: .237/.312/.349, 84 wRC+ Devers: .268/.316/.467, 98 wRC+ Betts: .266/.333/.417, 106 wRC+ Bradley: .216/.297/.316, 70 wRC+ Benintendi: .280/.346/.448, 106 wRC+ Stacks up pretty favorably. Of course Dalbec offers less defensive value than those guys and he's older than all of them were - heck, he's older than Devers is now. I really think it comes down to the BB and K rates for Dalbec. I think getting those into manageable territory is both a necessary and sufficient condition for him to be a successful major leaguer. August has been promising - 14% BB rate, 29% K rate - but of course that's mostly platooning. And we'll see if he can keep it up.
You're right to note that Dalbec is much older. But it's also good to note that his overall stats include his impressive 2020 and his troublesome 2021, where he has a 86 wRC+. His trajectory is going in the wrong direction, which seems to be mainly pitchers knowing where to put the ball so that he can't handle it. Was that true for anyone else? Bobby's age really does matter here. Bobby Dalbec - 26 Michael Chavis - 25 Rafael Devers - 24 Mookie Betts was the MVP at 25 Xander Bogaerts was 5th in MVP at 26 Jarren Duran - 24 Alex Verdugo - 25 Youkilis who was a late bloomer had an OPS of .780 with an OBP of .367 at 25 and a .400 OBP at 26.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 14, 2021 15:36:24 GMT -5
Happy Sale Day !!!
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 14, 2021 15:37:14 GMT -5
This is a great outcome. They can treat this as a rehab start for Sale.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 14, 2021 15:39:07 GMT -5
Duran with the delayed double play apparently.
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Post by jmei on Aug 14, 2021 15:40:52 GMT -5
I don’t have much confidence in Duran stealing a base in a clutch situation at the moment.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 14, 2021 15:41:58 GMT -5
This is a great outcome. They can treat this as a rehab start for Sale. I think this is really important... I am on the record thinking Sale won't live up to the 'ace pitching deep into games expectations' that some here have put on him, but a few 5 IP low stress starts for him would really help him build innings and strength.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,111
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Post by jimoh on Aug 14, 2021 15:44:16 GMT -5
This is a great outcome. They can treat this as a rehab start for Sale. I think this is really important... I am on the record thinking Sale won't live up to the ' ace pitching deep into games expectations' that some here have put on him, but a few 5 IP low stress starts for him would really help him build innings and strength. Straw man argument? Who has said this?
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