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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 14, 2021 15:45:09 GMT -5
Sale returning almost inspired me to purchase the MLB package, but then I remember most every other game doesn't start till midnight here. I miss watching them, and cant wait for the NFL to start in earnest. On a side note, it's amazing US sports have any following at all in Europe.
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Post by unitspin on Aug 14, 2021 15:45:24 GMT -5
I mean I know he's no erod but I missed watching sale pitch. It's nice to have a true ace caliber starter in the rotation.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 14, 2021 15:47:04 GMT -5
Fine jimoh, leave it as whatever the mean expectation for him is, I have been taking the under,
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Post by incandenza on Aug 14, 2021 15:49:36 GMT -5
Dalbec is at 416 career PAs. He's hit .236/.298/.459, 101 wRC+.
At the same stage in their careers:
Bogaerts: .237/.312/.349, 84 wRC+ Devers: .268/.316/.467, 98 wRC+ Betts: .266/.333/.417, 106 wRC+ Bradley: .216/.297/.316, 70 wRC+ Benintendi: .280/.346/.448, 106 wRC+
Stacks up pretty favorably. Of course Dalbec offers less defensive value than those guys and he's older than all of them were - heck, he's older than Devers is now.
I really think it comes down to the BB and K rates for Dalbec. I think getting those into manageable territory is both a necessary and sufficient condition for him to be a successful major leaguer. August has been promising - 14% BB rate, 29% K rate - but of course that's mostly platooning. And we'll see if he can keep it up.
You're right to note that Dalbec is much older. But it's also good to note that his overall stats include his impressive 2020 and his troublesome 2021, where he has a 86 wRC+. His trajectory is going in the wrong direction, which seems to be mainly pitchers knowing where to put the ball so that he can't handle it. Was that true for anyone else? Devers had a 110 wRC+ in 2017 (240 PAs) and then a 90 wRC+ in 2018 (490 PAs). Bogaerts got progressively worse throughout 2014 before recovering in September. Betts started off slow in 2015 (roughly PAs #200-400 in his career; wRC+ in the 80s).
And then on the other hand Dalbec has been improving over the course of this season, with the exception of an atrocious July. He has an 86 wRC+ overall, but it's 94 since 4/11 and 120 since 6/10. (This might well be noise rather than a sustained pattern, but it's at least not obvious that he's still going in the wrong direction.)
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Post by vokuhila on Aug 14, 2021 15:51:46 GMT -5
I don’t have much confidence in Duran stealing a base in a clutch situation at the moment. Can you justify adding someone like Delino DeShields just as a stolen base threat with the rosters only expanding to 28 players? I doubt it
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Post by manfred on Aug 14, 2021 15:55:46 GMT -5
I really like watching Kiké uncork on the ball. He has a kind of Pedroia-esque max swing that is fun.
I was definitely wrong about how much he’d add. But more than that, I was wrong about how fun he’d be.
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Post by aznpopsical on Aug 14, 2021 15:58:04 GMT -5
I really like watching Kiké uncork on the ball. He has a kind of Pedroia-esque max swing that is fun. I was definitely wrong about how much heâd add. But more than that, I was wrong about how fun heâd be. Kiké has been a godsend
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Post by jmei on Aug 14, 2021 15:59:58 GMT -5
Man, the Orioles really do stink.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 14, 2021 16:02:31 GMT -5
How many position players will the Os use to get through this game??? It's good to play a truly awful team so we can realize how NOT truly awful we are. Sometimes we don't play that well - but our team is pretty damn talented.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 14, 2021 16:04:22 GMT -5
A quick 7 or 8 runs to take the pressure off Sale would be nice. Six'll do.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 14, 2021 16:06:06 GMT -5
This is a pleasant game thus far.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 14, 2021 16:07:05 GMT -5
The only negative I’m saying to this game right now, is that Tampa will be playing Minnesota tonight.
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Post by manfred on Aug 14, 2021 16:07:52 GMT -5
Man, the Orioles really do stink. Brutal. And no fun. A lot of bad teams at least have a guy or two who’s fun to watch. They have…. Means? Mancini? Mullins?
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Post by soxinsf on Aug 14, 2021 16:09:01 GMT -5
I don’t have much confidence in Duran stealing a base in a clutch situation at the moment. Can you justify adding someone like Delino DeShields just as a stolen base threat with the rosters only expanding to 28 players? I doubt it If Schwarber becomes the 1B most of the time, then Franchy is an easy cut for DeShields if they want him and Franchy is still in the roster. We know Duran is fast. I wonder if he has a slow first step, and whether his speed plays better going first to third than trying to steal second.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 14, 2021 16:09:29 GMT -5
We all should remember that Bogaerts was not very good in his first full season either (BA .240 - OBP .297 - OPS .660 with subpar defense if memory serves me caused him to end up at 3B). Dalbec is at 416 career PAs. He's hit .236/.298/.459, 101 wRC+. At the same stage in their careers: Bogaerts: .237/.312/.349, 84 wRC+ Devers: .268/.316/.467, 98 wRC+ Betts: .266/.333/.417, 106 wRC+ Bradley: .216/.297/.316, 70 wRC+ Benintendi: .280/.346/.448, 106 wRC+ Stacks up pretty favorably. Of course Dalbec offers less defensive value than those guys and he's older than all of them were - heck, he's older than Devers is now. I really think it comes down to the BB and K rates for Dalbec. I think getting those into manageable territory is both a necessary and sufficient condition for him to be a successful major leaguer. August has been promising - 14% BB rate, 29% K rate - but of course that's mostly platooning. And we'll see if he can keep it up.
am I misremembering, or was Dalbec rated as a average to above average third baseman?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 14, 2021 16:11:20 GMT -5
Hays has a lot of nerve
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Post by pasadenasox on Aug 14, 2021 16:13:26 GMT -5
Dalbec is at 416 career PAs. He's hit .236/.298/.459, 101 wRC+. At the same stage in their careers: Bogaerts: .237/.312/.349, 84 wRC+ Devers: .268/.316/.467, 98 wRC+ Betts: .266/.333/.417, 106 wRC+ Bradley: .216/.297/.316, 70 wRC+ Benintendi: .280/.346/.448, 106 wRC+ Stacks up pretty favorably. Of course Dalbec offers less defensive value than those guys and he's older than all of them were - heck, he's older than Devers is now. I really think it comes down to the BB and K rates for Dalbec. I think getting those into manageable territory is both a necessary and sufficient condition for him to be a successful major leaguer. August has been promising - 14% BB rate, 29% K rate - but of course that's mostly platooning. And we'll see if he can keep it up.
am I misremembering, or was Dalbec rated as a average to above average third baseman? Average-ish with a strong arm, but with worries that he'd have to work hard to stay there long term. Never above average by my recollection.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 14, 2021 16:15:52 GMT -5
I just want Sale to get 5 innings and get the W on his record, because that is the most important pitching stat.
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Post by jmei on Aug 14, 2021 16:19:06 GMT -5
Dalbec has a good arm but not great hands or range at 3B. Can still credibly back up that position, though. I’ve also always wanted him to add corner outfield. If he can play those positions and put up a ~100 wRC+, that’s a pretty good bench player.
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Post by patford on Aug 14, 2021 16:21:33 GMT -5
Richards 48 pitches through three innings not looking too bad against 56 through three.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 14, 2021 16:22:31 GMT -5
Dalbec has a good arm but not great hands or range at 3B. Can still credibly back up that position, though. I’ve also always wanted him to add corner outfield. If he can play those positions and put up a ~100 wRC+, that’s a pretty good bench player. Bench player ? If the guys ends up hitting 25-30 home runs a year he won't be on the bench, at least most of the time.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 14, 2021 16:27:42 GMT -5
Boy this guy has a heck of a slider - crazy to say it but it might be as good as Houck's.
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Post by jmei on Aug 14, 2021 16:34:27 GMT -5
Let’s get a couple more runs here so that we don’t have to dip into the business end of the bullpen.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 14, 2021 16:41:06 GMT -5
VerduGod with another hit....excellent
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 14, 2021 16:41:59 GMT -5
Dalbec is at 416 career PAs. He's hit .236/.298/.459, 101 wRC+.
At the same stage in their careers:
Bogaerts: .237/.312/.349, 84 wRC+ Devers: .268/.316/.467, 98 wRC+ Betts: .266/.333/.417, 106 wRC+ Bradley: .216/.297/.316, 70 wRC+ Benintendi: .280/.346/.448, 106 wRC+
Stacks up pretty favorably. Of course Dalbec offers less defensive value than those guys and he's older than all of them were - heck, he's older than Devers is now.
I really think it comes down to the BB and K rates for Dalbec. I think getting those into manageable territory is both a necessary and sufficient condition for him to be a successful major leaguer. August has been promising - 14% BB rate, 29% K rate - but of course that's mostly platooning. And we'll see if he can keep it up.
Dalbec may or may not end up being serviceable, but playing the “x player struggled and became a star” game is meaningless. I mean, it is basically this syllogism: X struggled his first year and is now a star. Dalbec is struggling. Ergo Dalbec will be a star. It isn’t just that he has struggled: it is that is struggles were actually recognizably within his range of outcomes. That is, if this is it, it wouldn’t be that surprising. If, say, Xander had never gotten better or if Franco doesn’t continue to get better, it’ll be shocking. Manfred all he is saying is don't give up on him completely and making some comparisons, not that he is going to be a star. So ergo that and stop extrapolating peoples words into something that isn't what was meant and being combative.
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