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8/20-8/22 Red Sox vs. Rangers Thread
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Post by incandenza on Aug 21, 2021 9:41:13 GMT -5
Apropos nothing, I wonder how all the AL East trade deadline acquisitions are doing with their new teams, hmm, let's check the fWAR totals: Kyle Schwarber: 0.3 Jose Berrios: 0.3 Clay Holmes: 0.3
Anthony Rizzo: 0.2 Austin Davis: 0.1 Hansel Robles: 0.1
Joey Gallo: 0.0 Nelson Cruz: -0.1 Brad Hand: -0.4 Andrew Heaney: -0.4 Totals Red Sox: 0.5 Yankees: 0.1 Rays: -0.1 Jays: -0.1 Well I'll be.
I freely admit I know next to nothing about Fwar, but how does Robles have positive fwar and the guy who hurled 7 strong innings even though he is a lousy pitcher in Heaney have negative war. Wouldn't you say Heaney had positive impact in an important game that put NY ahead of Boston. 0.2 for Rizzo? Would you say he was a big part of that important final game win, too? Without him or Heaney they don't win a game. At this point of the season no fwar is going to be huge either way. A guy can hit a 2 run single to win a game in the bottom of the 9th but it won't account for much in fwar and it might make him look like he contributed nothing. At this point I don't think fwar means much of anything. It's more like is the guy contributing to winning. I'm not disputing your numbers. If you want to tell me the Sox got the best offensive bat at the deadline, I'll buy that. I just don't know that fwar is really telling us anything meaningful. Schwarber has been fantastic, as much as one can be in about 15 - 20 plate appearances, but the impact hasn't been there - and before you jump on me, it's not his fault. Him not even getting a PH appearance in that final game was tough. Not his fault Cora didn't give him a shot, but it's hard to be impactful when you're not playing or up in key situations that impact the game one way or another. My point, of course, is just that Schwarber's been good and a huge addition to the team, though people seem very determined to find the cloud behind that silver lining.
In any case, it sounds like you want WPA - Win Probability Added, which measures how much a player contributed to a team's wins and losses. So here you go:
Rizzo: 0.59 Gallo: 0.43 Schwarber: 0.22
Berrios: 0.20
Holmes: 0.08 Davis: -0.03 Robles: -0.03
Cruz: -0.43
Heaney: -0.65 Hand: -0.90
Totals Yankees: 0.45 Red Sox: 0.16 Rays: -0.43
Jays: -0.70
(The Yankees total would be negative if not for Gallo's stupid 310-foot homer against the Mariners on August 5th.)
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Post by incandenza on Aug 21, 2021 9:51:22 GMT -5
I get that he's a torch, except when he faced the Sox in that key game that put the Yankees ahead of the Sox. I guess Robles looks better because he's only a 1 inning arsonist rather than a 4 inning one. Exactly, he doesn’t get to impact the game as much because he fortunately only sucks for an inning at a time I was no particular fan of the Robles trade, but he hasn't been that bad - lots of walks, but also lots of Ks, and he's been unlucky with BABIP. Hasn't given up a homer. As a back end of the bullpen guy, he's basically inconsequential, which is what WAR and WPA both say.
Austin Davis, meanwhile, has... been pretty good, aside from his getting burned by a .500 BABIP? I'm increasingly intrigued by him.
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Post by manfred on Aug 21, 2021 10:01:23 GMT -5
Exactly, he doesn’t get to impact the game as much because he fortunately only sucks for an inning at a time I was no particular fan of the Robles trade, but he hasn't been that bad - lots of walks, but also lots of Ks, and he's been unlucky with BABIP. Hasn't given up a homer. As a back end of the bullpen guy, he's basically inconsequential, which is what WAR and WPA both say.
Austin Davis, meanwhile, has... been pretty good, aside from his getting burned by a .500 BABIP? I'm increasingly intrigued by him.
Davis actually looks better than Taylor to me. He could be a good pick up. |
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 21, 2021 10:09:25 GMT -5
I freely admit I know next to nothing about Fwar, but how does Robles have positive fwar and the guy who hurled 7 strong innings even though he is a lousy pitcher in Heaney have negative war. Wouldn't you say Heaney had positive impact in an important game that put NY ahead of Boston. 0.2 for Rizzo? Would you say he was a big part of that important final game win, too? Without him or Heaney they don't win a game. At this point of the season no fwar is going to be huge either way. A guy can hit a 2 run single to win a game in the bottom of the 9th but it won't account for much in fwar and it might make him look like he contributed nothing. At this point I don't think fwar means much of anything. It's more like is the guy contributing to winning. I'm not disputing your numbers. If you want to tell me the Sox got the best offensive bat at the deadline, I'll buy that. I just don't know that fwar is really telling us anything meaningful. Schwarber has been fantastic, as much as one can be in about 15 - 20 plate appearances, but the impact hasn't been there - and before you jump on me, it's not his fault. Him not even getting a PH appearance in that final game was tough. Not his fault Cora didn't give him a shot, but it's hard to be impactful when you're not playing or up in key situations that impact the game one way or another. My point, of course, is just that Schwarber's been good and a huge addition to the team, though people seem very determined to find the cloud behind that silver lining. In any case, it sounds like you want WPA - Win Probability Added, which measures how much a player contributed to a team's wins and losses. So here you go: Rizzo: 0.59 Gallo: 0.43 Schwarber: 0.22
Berrios: 0.20
Holmes: 0.08 Davis: -0.03 Robles: -0.03
Cruz: -0.43
Heaney: -0.65 Hand: -0.90 Totals Yankees: 0.45 Red Sox: 0.16 Rays: -0.43
Jays: -0.70 (The Yankees total would be negative if not for Gallo's stupid 310-foot homer against the Mariners on August 5th.)
That looks more real, but honestly at this point of the seasons it's kind of like picking gnats. Impact to me isn't going to be -0.75 or 0.75. We know that no player by himself is worth a five game swing in the standings. I like to think of the Francisco Cabrera impact or Freddy McGriff. I don't know how Fred McGriff circa 1993 would score on the Fwar stuff. Maybe a game or two? But I have to believe his impact is a lot larger than that. Francisco Cabrera got the hit in the 1992 NLCS game 7 where he was likely either going to make the last out in an elimination game or become a hero, with the latter happening. From an fwar standpoint did he get much credit for that? The reason I bring this up is that we're in small sample territory here with a huge chunk of the season gone, so it's hard for me to see Fwar, see everybody clustered around 0 and get much from it. |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 21, 2021 10:25:56 GMT -5
He was a positive impact against the 42-80 Rangers. Not really sure how Dalbec had a good game, he was 0-2 with a walk. Schwarber was really awesome when he was riding the bench in game 3 against the Yankees and didn't even get in to pinch hit. No, he's barely played and is a platooning DH and hasn't helped them win any games really. He's played 5 games for them and will continue to platoon at DH for the near future. I like the Schwarber acquisition in a vacuum. I think he's a needed bat, but he's been pretty useless to the team so far and now they're looking up at the 2nd Wild Card. Yeah, it's obvious why he isn't on 1B yet. It was obvious before they traded for an injured player, but yet the intention was to place an injured OFer in a position he's played all of 1 inning of. Here's the flip side to Schwarber being the DH and being awesome with the bat: JD Martinez DH - .303/.372/.575/.947 346 AB LF - .263/.309/.434/.743 76 AB RF - .143/.200/.143/.343 14 AB (90 ABs total when playing the OF) Splits are similar in 2020, though lower sampling. In 2018 and 2019 it was a different story, but he's also older and slower and is more prone to injury playing the field. He's not a good outfielder. Dalbec is not a good 1B in the field or with the bat. He can hit lefties half decently and should be used as a strict platoon. What were his numbers before last night? He’s a positive impact in the lineup no matter who he’s against. Unless your argument is that he can only be a positive impact if they’re winning….which would be quite the argument. Poor mike trout has never made a positive impact once in his career apparently Dalbec had 3 productive at bats last night. If you didn’t watch the game and are only box score scouting just say it. Walk, HBP, moved Duran over with a fly out to right. Duran came home the next AB on a ground out Also lol at you disregarding the last two full seasons that prove the opposite of your point. Implying that he’s older and broken down when he’s having his best year in the field to date is a little weird despite that play in RF the other night he’s been a solid defender this year, particularly in LF. And he’ll be back to DHing plenty when the .500 hitter you’re crying about being in the lineup is healthy enough to play the field Yes, I can dismiss 2019 and 2018 when they're 3 and 4 years seasons ago and he's 34. Recency bias suggests he's a better hitter when he's a DH. The Splits between this season and last are fairly drastic when you add all the ABs together. Mike Trout is an all-time great with the bat and solid glove in CFer. He's not displacing other players who bring down the team defense and isn't meant to replace a terrible, terrible player and is instead keeping them in the lineup ala Bobby Dalbec who, despite having a JBJ like mini-hot streak, is still not showing good defense and still has a -0.8 WAR on the year. His BABIP is still .320 on the year despite hitting .227 so there's likely still some regression in that batting average. I'm also fairly certain that his recent hitting is greatly aided by a very high BABIP, I just can't find how to confirm it. Cora reaffirming the need to get Schwarber at 1B furthers why they got him and that the team doesn't trust Bobby any more, at least against RHP. Best season? What, -7.1 instead of last year -8.6 and before that -18.1 and -14.7? I mean, I guess. I would guess that the more he's out there he's also more likely to regress to the mean, but even if doesn't that's still not good. HBP is a productive at bat now? A .500 hitter who has played 5 games for them since July 30th When the team blew a 10 game lead. Again, you keep talking about his bat. Never once said I didn't like his bat, but if you want to talk about his impact fine. 2 for 5 with 1 walk in 2 out of 3 games played against the Yankees. Zero runs or RBIs. But he had a great game against the 42 win Rangers and 1 great game and 1 productive game against the 38 win Orioles. Games the Red Sox won 8-1 6-2 6-0 The trade hasn't helped the team, yet. I hope it does, but now they need to continue to beat the bad out of these teams that are trying to lose with AAA pitchers and recalibrate when the Red Sox are playing better competition. It's not going to help much if Schwarber isn't able to play an adequate 1B by then. LF - Verdugo CF - Duran RF - Renfroe 1B - Schwarber DH - Martinez That is a superior team |
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Post by incandenza on Aug 21, 2021 10:30:18 GMT -5
My point, of course, is just that Schwarber's been good and a huge addition to the team, though people seem very determined to find the cloud behind that silver lining. In any case, it sounds like you want WPA - Win Probability Added, which measures how much a player contributed to a team's wins and losses. So here you go: Rizzo: 0.59 Gallo: 0.43 Schwarber: 0.22
Berrios: 0.20
Holmes: 0.08 Davis: -0.03 Robles: -0.03
Cruz: -0.43
Heaney: -0.65 Hand: -0.90 Totals Yankees: 0.45 Red Sox: 0.16 Rays: -0.43
Jays: -0.70 (The Yankees total would be negative if not for Gallo's stupid 310-foot homer against the Mariners on August 5th.)
That looks more real, but honestly at this point of the seasons it's kind of like picking gnats. Impact to me isn't going to be -0.75 or 0.75. We know that no player by himself is worth a five game swing in the standings. I like to think of the Francisco Cabrera impact or Freddy McGriff. I don't know how Fred McGriff circa 1993 would score on the Fwar stuff. Maybe a game or two? But I have to believe his impact is a lot larger than that. Francisco Cabrera got the hit in the 1992 NLCS game 7 where he was likely either going to make the last out in an elimination game or become a hero, with the latter happening. From an fwar standpoint did he get much credit for that? The reason I bring this up is that we're in small sample territory here with a huge chunk of the season gone, so it's hard for me to see Fwar, see everybody clustered around 0 and get much from it. Well, I regret a little putting those WPA numbers together, which took a minute - didn't realize you didn't actually care about any of the outcomes we've seen with these players.
But it's true, it's all SSS stuff. This is one reason why "the Red Sox THREW AWAY THE SEASON by doing NOTHING at the trade deadline!" was always an overheated take. When Clay Holmes turns out to be a more significant addition than Nelson Cruz, or Hand costs the Jays 4x as much as Berrios helps them, you're obviously dealing with a lot of high-variance randomness.
I also think it's a good point about playoff performance. That is an important factor, and a major reason to make a deadline move in the first place: you want to load the dice in your favor come playoff time. That's another reason I was less bothered than some by the delay in Schwarber getting on the field - it's not immaterial, but also he ought to be able to fully contribute in the playoffs (if they make it to the playoffs!) and that in itself offers substantial rationale for the trade.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 21, 2021 10:32:37 GMT -5
Apropos nothing, I wonder how all the AL East trade deadline acquisitions are doing with their new teams, hmm, let's check the fWAR totals: Kyle Schwarber: 0.3 Jose Berrios: 0.3 Clay Holmes: 0.3
Anthony Rizzo: 0.2 Austin Davis: 0.1 Hansel Robles: 0.1
Joey Gallo: 0.0 Nelson Cruz: -0.1 Brad Hand: -0.4 Andrew Heaney: -0.4 Totals Red Sox: 0.5 Yankees: 0.1 Rays: -0.1 Jays: -0.1 Well I'll be.
Only thing that counts are Ws. The rest is window dressing. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 21, 2021 10:37:42 GMT -5
Davis actually looks better than Taylor to me. He could be a good pick up. Co-sign |
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Post by incandenza on Aug 21, 2021 10:44:27 GMT -5
What were his numbers before last night? He’s a positive impact in the lineup no matter who he’s against. Unless your argument is that he can only be a positive impact if they’re winning….which would be quite the argument. Poor mike trout has never made a positive impact once in his career apparently Dalbec had 3 productive at bats last night. If you didn’t watch the game and are only box score scouting just say it. Walk, HBP, moved Duran over with a fly out to right. Duran came home the next AB on a ground out Also lol at you disregarding the last two full seasons that prove the opposite of your point. Implying that he’s older and broken down when he’s having his best year in the field to date is a little weird despite that play in RF the other night he’s been a solid defender this year, particularly in LF. And he’ll be back to DHing plenty when the .500 hitter you’re crying about being in the lineup is healthy enough to play the field Yes, I can dismiss 2019 and 2018 when they're 3 and 4 years seasons ago and he's 34. Recency bias suggests he's a better hitter when he's a DH. The Splits between this season and last are fairly drastic when you add all the ABs together. Mike Trout is an all-time great with the bat and solid glove in CFer. He's not displacing other players who bring down the team defense and isn't meant to replace a terrible, terrible player and is instead keeping them in the lineup ala Bobby Dalbec who, despite having a JBJ like mini-hot streak, is still not showing good defense and still has a -0.8 WAR on the year. His BABIP is still .320 on the year despite hitting .227 so there's likely still some regression in that batting average. I'm also fairly certain that his recent hitting is greatly aided by a very high BABIP, I just can't find how to confirm it. Cora reaffirming the need to get Schwarber at 1B furthers why they got him and that the team doesn't trust Bobby any more, at least against RHP. Best season? What, -7.1 instead of last year -8.6 and before that -18.1 and -14.7? I mean, I guess. I would guess that the more he's out there he's also more likely to regress to the mean, but even if doesn't that's still not good. HBP is a productive at bat now? A .500 hitter who has played 5 games for them since July 30th When the team blew a 10 game lead. Again, you keep talking about his bat. Never once said I didn't like his bat, but if you want to talk about his impact fine. 2 for 5 with 1 walk in 2 out of 3 games played against the Yankees. Zero runs or RBIs. But he had a great game against the 42 win Rangers and 1 great game and 1 productive game against the 38 win Orioles. Games the Red Sox won 8-1 6-2 6-0 The trade hasn't helped the team, yet. I hope it does, but now they need to continue to beat the bad out of these teams that are trying to lose with AAA pitchers and recalibrate when the Red Sox are playing better competition. It's not going to help much if Schwarber isn't able to play an adequate 1B by then. LF - Verdugo CF - Duran RF - Renfroe 1B - Schwarber DH - Martinez That is a superior team If I'm reading you correctly:
1) We can look at SSS splits in JD's batting line to determine that he's a worse hitter as a fielder than a DH, but we should dismiss the SSS fielding stats that say he's been a good left fielder.
2) Going 2-5 with a walk (.400/.500/.400) against the Yankees was a bad performance.
3) Getting on base by HBP doesn't count, and Dalbec's 122 wRC+ performance in yesterday's game was actually bad.
4) Dalbec gets no credit for moving a runner over and contributing to a run, but also Schwarber gets no credit for getting hits that didn't contribute to a run.
5) Dalbec is likely to regress toward a worse performance even though his xwOBA is still above his wOBA.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 21, 2021 11:23:53 GMT -5
Yes, I can dismiss 2019 and 2018 when they're 3 and 4 years seasons ago and he's 34. Recency bias suggests he's a better hitter when he's a DH. The Splits between this season and last are fairly drastic when you add all the ABs together. Mike Trout is an all-time great with the bat and solid glove in CFer. He's not displacing other players who bring down the team defense and isn't meant to replace a terrible, terrible player and is instead keeping them in the lineup ala Bobby Dalbec who, despite having a JBJ like mini-hot streak, is still not showing good defense and still has a -0.8 WAR on the year. His BABIP is still .320 on the year despite hitting .227 so there's likely still some regression in that batting average. I'm also fairly certain that his recent hitting is greatly aided by a very high BABIP, I just can't find how to confirm it. Cora reaffirming the need to get Schwarber at 1B furthers why they got him and that the team doesn't trust Bobby any more, at least against RHP. Best season? What, -7.1 instead of last year -8.6 and before that -18.1 and -14.7? I mean, I guess. I would guess that the more he's out there he's also more likely to regress to the mean, but even if doesn't that's still not good. HBP is a productive at bat now? A .500 hitter who has played 5 games for them since July 30th When the team blew a 10 game lead. Again, you keep talking about his bat. Never once said I didn't like his bat, but if you want to talk about his impact fine. 2 for 5 with 1 walk in 2 out of 3 games played against the Yankees. Zero runs or RBIs. But he had a great game against the 42 win Rangers and 1 great game and 1 productive game against the 38 win Orioles. Games the Red Sox won 8-1 6-2 6-0 The trade hasn't helped the team, yet. I hope it does, but now they need to continue to beat the bad out of these teams that are trying to lose with AAA pitchers and recalibrate when the Red Sox are playing better competition. It's not going to help much if Schwarber isn't able to play an adequate 1B by then. LF - Verdugo CF - Duran RF - Renfroe 1B - Schwarber DH - Martinez That is a superior team If I'm reading you correctly: 1) We can look at SSS splits in JD's batting line to determine that he's a worse hitter as a fielder than a DH, but we should dismiss the SSS fielding stats that say he's been a good left fielder. 2) Going 2-5 with a walk (.400/.500/.400) against the Yankees was a bad performance. 3) Getting on base by HBP doesn't count, and Dalbec's 122 wRC+ performance in yesterday's game was actually bad. 4) Dalbec gets no credit for moving a runner over and contributing to a run, but also Schwarber gets no credit for getting hits that didn't contribute to a run. 5) Dalbec is likely to regress toward a worse performance even though his xwOBA is still above his wOBA.
According to ESPN his dWAR is -0.6 which is tied for 180th player in baseball. Why doesn't the team just trout him out in the outfield all the time then? He does have the 3rd highest UZR in baseball in LF this year. He should be the every day LFer. Did I say it was a bad performance against the Yankees? No. I didn't. But he didn't get a run, an RBI, and got on base 3 out of 6 times he went up to the plate. Great. He did that in the 2 games he played when they played 3 against the Yankees. The game that completed the sweep of the Red Sox against a terrible right handed pitcher. Yeah, getting hit by a pitch is a non-factor for me. That's ridiculous that this is somehow considered a ney positive for a hitter, any hitter. He got hit by a pitch. He drew a walk, but still went 0-2 with a strike out. Great, he moved a runner over. That's what the Red Sox need in a 1B. He also, you know, misplayed a ball hit by Rizzo in that Yankees series. Dalbec is 26 years old, he's been terrible all year long until recently where he got on a hot streak, his k rate is still 36.0% and his bb% is 5.3% on the year. I don't think he's figured out the league in August. The Rangers are an awful, awful team. Much like the Orioles. Everyone should be putting up numbers. The starting pitcher was terrible and their lineup is garbage. |
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Post by jbuttah on Aug 21, 2021 12:03:09 GMT -5
No way they're playing game on Sunday. Why couldn't they have scheduled a doubleheader for today?
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 21, 2021 12:07:30 GMT -5
I’m not diminishing the Sox… they played well, Sale is progressing etc. But my take away is how stunningly bad the Rangers are. Embarrassing. Myself and others said the same thing about TBay earlier this season after a Sox series with them. |
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 21, 2021 12:18:02 GMT -5
No way they're playing game on Sunday. Why couldn't they have scheduled a doubleheader for today? This is a good question but has MLB ever been proactive like that based on the radar? I can't recall it ever happening. |
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Post by manfred on Aug 21, 2021 12:31:51 GMT -5
I’m not diminishing the Sox… they played well, Sale is progressing etc. But my take away is how stunningly bad the Rangers are. Embarrassing. Myself and others said the same thing about TBay earlier this season after a Sox series with them. Well, TB still baffles me. They are not exactly bursting with talent. But the Rangers are a whole other animal. They don’t appear to be good at any aspect of the game. |
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Post by incandenza on Aug 21, 2021 12:32:35 GMT -5
If I'm reading you correctly: 1) We can look at SSS splits in JD's batting line to determine that he's a worse hitter as a fielder than a DH, but we should dismiss the SSS fielding stats that say he's been a good left fielder. 2) Going 2-5 with a walk (.400/.500/.400) against the Yankees was a bad performance. 3) Getting on base by HBP doesn't count, and Dalbec's 122 wRC+ performance in yesterday's game was actually bad. 4) Dalbec gets no credit for moving a runner over and contributing to a run, but also Schwarber gets no credit for getting hits that didn't contribute to a run. 5) Dalbec is likely to regress toward a worse performance even though his xwOBA is still above his wOBA.
According to ESPN his dWAR is -0.6 which is tied for 180th player in baseball. That number is negative because of the positional adjustment - because he is primarily a DH. You're citing a number that shows he's been less valuable because he's a DH. He actually has a better dWAR than every other full-time DH because he's added positive value in the field.
Look, I don't actually think that's predictive. I don't expect him to be a great fielder going forward. I was just pointing out that you are willing to use his SSS splits when it suits your argument (his offensive stats as DH vs. as an OFer) but totally throw them out the window when it doesn't (his defensive stats). Just like you don't credit Schwarber's offensive output unless it contributes to a run, but you also don't credit Dalbec's offensive output when it does contribute to a run. Just no consistency at all.
Schwarber has been fantastic for the Red Sox so far. That's all I'm saying. But for some reason some folks seem very invested in not being happy about that.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 21, 2021 12:36:39 GMT -5
Feeling good going into tonight's game - pretty thrilled with how Schwarber approaches his at bats. Hoping the Sox free swingers are watching him. Thrilled with Xander in general, but his recent at bats - smacking line drives down the line - are really refreshing (the wrist seems fine). Thrilled with Kiké and the energy he brings. Thrilled with Sale's return and his two starts.
The emotional yo-yo that is being an avid Red Sox fan continues - let's trounce the Rangers tonight. Oakland, Tampa and MFY can't win all of their remaining games - if we take care of our own business, we'll be OK.
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Post by blizzards39 on Aug 21, 2021 12:50:24 GMT -5
Yankees get praised for bringing in Rizzo. Even though
1- the already addressed LH power in Gallo
2- they gave up a significant amount in the trade
3- they didn’t fill there weakest position that is SS
4- arguably ( I’d say not/ defiantly) he is there 2nd best 1B (3rd if u count DJ)
5- forcing DH Stanton into the outfield and occasionally judge to CF
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 21, 2021 13:09:21 GMT -5
So who has the highest OPS on the Sox, I don’t see it I forgot. I dunno, but whoever that guy is I’m sure happy he’s in our lineup, he’s going to really help us win. Good. Hopefully the guy with the highest OPS can play a competent 1b so they can remove a guy from the lineup who has one of the lowest OPS in the lineup, instead of having to sit a decent OPS guy, and stop using a DH in the outfield. Also wish our manager hadn't sat our highest OPS guy in the final game of the Yankees series or at least would have pinch-hit him, in a game which they needed to win. I like our highest OPS guy in the lineup. Would like to see his bat in the lineup every day. I do not disagree, I feel they have to make this move eventually. Did they hold off because Bobby D was hot? Idk. |
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Post by manfred on Aug 21, 2021 13:11:32 GMT -5
If I write something about the Mookie trade or Kiké leading off, will it speed the end of the deadline debates?
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 21, 2021 13:21:53 GMT -5
Yes, I can dismiss 2019 and 2018 when they're 3 and 4 years seasons ago and he's 34. Recency bias suggests he's a better hitter when he's a DH. The Splits between this season and last are fairly drastic when you add all the ABs together. Mike Trout is an all-time great with the bat and solid glove in CFer. He's not displacing other players who bring down the team defense and isn't meant to replace a terrible, terrible player and is instead keeping them in the lineup ala Bobby Dalbec who, despite having a JBJ like mini-hot streak, is still not showing good defense and still has a -0.8 WAR on the year. His BABIP is still .320 on the year despite hitting .227 so there's likely still some regression in that batting average. I'm also fairly certain that his recent hitting is greatly aided by a very high BABIP, I just can't find how to confirm it. Cora reaffirming the need to get Schwarber at 1B furthers why they got him and that the team doesn't trust Bobby any more, at least against RHP. Best season? What, -7.1 instead of last year -8.6 and before that -18.1 and -14.7? I mean, I guess. I would guess that the more he's out there he's also more likely to regress to the mean, but even if doesn't that's still not good. HBP is a productive at bat now? A .500 hitter who has played 5 games for them since July 30th When the team blew a 10 game lead. Again, you keep talking about his bat. Never once said I didn't like his bat, but if you want to talk about his impact fine. 2 for 5 with 1 walk in 2 out of 3 games played against the Yankees. Zero runs or RBIs. But he had a great game against the 42 win Rangers and 1 great game and 1 productive game against the 38 win Orioles. Games the Red Sox won 8-1 6-2 6-0 The trade hasn't helped the team, yet. I hope it does, but now they need to continue to beat the bad out of these teams that are trying to lose with AAA pitchers and recalibrate when the Red Sox are playing better competition. It's not going to help much if Schwarber isn't able to play an adequate 1B by then. LF - Verdugo CF - Duran RF - Renfroe 1B - Schwarber DH - Martinez That is a superior team If I'm reading you correctly:
1) We can look at SSS splits in JD's batting line to determine that he's a worse hitter as a fielder than a DH, but we should dismiss the SSS fielding stats that say he's been a good left fielder.
2) Going 2-5 with a walk (.400/.500/.400) against the Yankees was a bad performance.
3) Getting on base by HBP doesn't count, and Dalbec's 122 wRC+ performance in yesterday's game was actually bad.
4) Dalbec gets no credit for moving a runner over and contributing to a run, but also Schwarber gets no credit for getting hits that didn't contribute to a run.
5) Dalbec is likely to regress toward a worse performance even though his xwOBA is still above his wOBA.
Like I said in my first post, he should just come out and tell us he enjoys being miserable. Can’t even give a guy any credit when he does positive things last night. Has to complain about having a guy who gets on base every at bat in a shutout being in the lineup at DH. We should all be miserable that we have a guy in the lineup who has almost hit .500 since getting here because he’s DHing. He didn’t single handedly win any games yet so it’s not worth it |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 21, 2021 13:24:32 GMT -5
Yankees get praised for bringing in Rizzo. Even though 1- the already addressed LH power in Gallo 2- they gave up a significant amount in the trade 3- they didn’t fill there weakest position that is SS 4- arguably ( I’d say not/ defiantly) he is there 2nd best 1B (3rd if u count DJ) 5- forcing DH Stanton into the outfield and occasionally judge to CF 6) he missed time (same knock on Schwarber from the incessant deadline complainers) |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 21, 2021 13:27:37 GMT -5
If I write something about the Mookie trade or Kiké leading off, will it speed the end of the deadline debates? You know the answer to that question |
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Post by manfred on Aug 21, 2021 13:29:56 GMT -5
If I write something about the Mookie trade or Kiké leading off, will it speed the end of the deadline debates? You know the answer to that question If Chris Sale comes back and throws 5 shutout innings and Schwarber reaches base four times will it… oh, never mind . |
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 21, 2021 13:42:16 GMT -5
Myself and others said the same thing about TBay earlier this season after a Sox series with them. Well, TB still baffles me. They are not exactly bursting with talent. But the Rangers are a whole other animal. They don’t appear to be good at any aspect of the game. The Rangers team OPS is 656, can you imagine? Dalbec would be one of their best hitters. |
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Post by Guidas on Aug 21, 2021 13:52:19 GMT -5
Myself and others said the same thing about TBay earlier this season after a Sox series with them. Well, TB still baffles me. They are not exactly bursting with talent. But the Rangers are a whole other animal. They don’t appear to be good at any aspect of the game. If TB is accurate to that article from The Athletic posted earlier this season (June?) - their analytics department said a team could win with offense or defense but excellent to elite defense is much cheaper than excellent to elite offense. So that's apparently how they build and execute. Makes sense in the run differential equation - basically just enough to win plus a few blow-outs against bad teams. |
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