2022 MLB Draft

New Keith Law mock:
theathletic.com/3413419/2022/07/11/mlb-mock-draft-2022-orioles/

Since it's pick 24, it's hard for me to be too critical of it, and it all depends who is still on the board at that point. That said, I am bearish on Rocker based on what we've found out about him via mlbpipeline the last few weeks

I'd be great with Rocker if his medicals check-out. He's a potential #2 and those tagged with that are not often available to the Sox. If not, and if Whisenhunt is still there, he's my other first-round go-to as he projects to a #3/4 (better than our usual #5/6/reliever pick-ups). But best player available is always a great choice.

Also, I know much of this mock is based on whatever intel Law's been getting from scouts and execs, but I find it mystifying that teams would let Collier fall all the way down to 8. The guy is 17 and hitting well at one of the best JuCos in the nation. Seems like a major upside "Guy," and whoever does get him will be elated.

Now they can take Fabian there and hope his hit tool develops unlike Waters

Am I wrong to view Bloom's philosophy as being wary of pitching, both in long-term commitments (ERod vs. short term gambles- Paxton, Wacha, Hill), in drafting (no high-round picks), and international signings (only one pitcher, Paez, above $300 bonus). On MBL level, Tampa always traded pitchers nearing long term free agency commitments (Archer, Cobb, Odrizzi and post Bloom, but informative nonetheless, Snell, ) If so, why would we expect him to go big on Rocker?

I understand the talent level, but shoulder injuries make me nervous, especially since he's already had surgery. Maybe that's outdated thinking though, and I should just trust the Sox medical staff (if Rocker's the pick).

This was my reasoning for wanting them to bypass college OF at 24, because I thought there would similar players and ceilings at 41. I do think the depth in this draft is much larger than last year's, and the college bats are the big reason why.
 
Also, the Waters needing a change of scenery comment is a little weird, you typically hear that about established players. Specific to Waters, the concerns that came with him on draft day, have been the ones that stunted his growth. I think it was Law who said very early after his draft summer that he thought and scouts too "there is no way he's a big leaguer". That being said, I do think KC is a nice landing spot for him though. Also sort of funny how he was the OF prospect, but then got passed by Pache, who Atlanta also moved, but its nbd bc they had Michael Harris who passed both of them.  

Might be good to remind everyone that, as much as we love all our prospects, since 2000, in the first round or first round supplementals, the Red Sox have only selected 5 players who have had a 10.0 MLB bWAR or better.

This is not a relatively high bar, either. Old friend David Murphy just missed the cut with a 9.9.

They are (so far):
Jacoby Ellsbury 31.2
Jackie Bradley, Jr. 17.4*
Clay Buchholz 16.8
Jed Lowrie 16.0*
Andrew Benintendi 14.9*

Round 2 since 2000 has even fewer:
Dustin Pedroia 51.9
Jon Lester 43.4
Justin Masterson 10.0

The next closest is Brandon Workman at 2.4

Bottom line: it's a big ol crapshoot.

* Active.

I would tend to agree with you on Bloom's philosophy.  I also wonder if he will have to change his philosophy in a major market team that not only expects to contend every year, but after awhile the fanbase won't accept just contending (they will want to WIN).  In so much as the above is true, as some point Bloom will have to take educated "risks" with  money to pay for a players 2/3 first years of a say 5 year contract that will have the last 2 as eh maybe not so much good.  Will that be with hitters (and which one) or will it be with pitchers?  How will he value pitchers?  (will we go cheap all the way through or will he pay up for an ace or potential ace).

If you follow the dodgers way of doing things, it seems like pitching is paid for both in the draft and free agency/trades by targeting and paying up for the elites.  Walker Buehler was coming off Tommy John but had ace upside and they paid up later in the draft (Rocker thoughts).  Trades have been made to target aces or signings of short term elite pitchers (Scherzer and well that other guy I won't mention who was on Indians and Reds signed to short deal).  (you could argue Paxton was this type of signing).

I tend to believe THIS might be the way we go with pitching, which I actually like (and I worry about Rocker).

Side note-  something not mentioned is that Rocker didn't sign with Mets because they wanted to give him slot value last year after medicals.  Slot value last year is much higher than he would obtain at slot value with Red Sox at this pick.  So...is he signable at slot and do we want him at a number that might be vastily over slot?  I haven't heard what he's asking for or anything, just kinda using reasoning to point out some potential problem areas with a Kumar Rocker pick at that point.  (essentially is he worth the 1st and 2nd round picks if he's asking for that kind of bonus expense).

It's been done before a few times and Boras was the agent then also. I can't remember the pitchers names, but they cost themselves SIGNIFICANTLY and one never did sniff $1million (drafted top 10 by Colorado at first).