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8/30-9/2 Red Sox @ Rays Series Thread
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Post by benzinger on Aug 30, 2021 22:34:36 GMT -5
On a positive note, Kluber just gave up a grand slam! Ohtani with #42! How the hell do you figure out a contract for this guy? A 159OPS+ and a 153ERA+?!?? He should get 2 separate contracts. The Angels struck gold here. I can’t imagine what he’s worth as a FA in 2 years.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 30, 2021 23:43:41 GMT -5
Another ugly game. Not really much of a surprise. At least any nonsense that the Red Sox could catch the Rays will finally be put to rest. The Rays are clearly a superior team to the Sox. I wouldn't know how anybody objectively could say otherwise. Since the Sox swept the Rays really early in the season the Rays have won 8 of 10. I'd expect the Rays to take at least two of the three remaining games this series.
The Red Sox hitting was absent, minus Dalbec's hot hitting. Against TB's pitching this isn't much of a surprise. What's alarming is the amount of bad defense the Sox have been playing.
And now with the COVID news, you have to wonder if it'll get even worse and possibly put the Sox at a big disadvantage for the next two to three weeks, and place them in jeopardy of missing the playoffs.
At the moment, the worse thing is that it sets Barnes back further, giving him less time to get his act together and it really throws the bullpen into chaos.
The only real quick fix I can think of is to give Seabold a shot at the rotation and move Houck into the bullpen. Also Brasier is returning, which may or may not help the pen a heckuva lot.
I have to admit, that about 2/3 into the season I was having World Series fantasies with thought of how to best put together a roster for the post-season. At the time I wouldn't have it thought it crazy for the Sox to make the ALCS.
Now, they'd be fortunate to make the playoffs, and the only goal at this point is to beat the Yankees in a 1 game playoff. They could get swept by TB soon afterward and it wouldn't bother me. But losing to the Yankees might be even worse than blowing a huge lead in the playoff race and not making the playoffs altogether.
With the Sox doing as well as they were doing and Sale and Schwarber on the horizon....I knew the Sox had some issues, but I didn't think it would get this bad this quick and now the Covid stuff...geez. What a letdown.
Turns out I was wrong and right about the deadline stuff. I wanted Rizzo but wasn't stuck on him necessarily as the 1b solution. Loved Schwarber's bat but not crazy about his defense or him forcing JDM into outfield duty. Didn't anticipate Dalbec getting hot with the bat, although I do think he could go ice cold in September and his defense is his defense.
But I was correct about the pen needing reinforcements and Robles and Davis hardly qualify as reinforcements. More, they are the kind of guys you try to get upgrades over. And now the pen is really, really thin, and it's costing the Sox games, along with some jagged defense. I was excited about Duran and still think he can be part of the future, but his presence helped cost the Sox their defensive outfield strength. I was wrong about the Sox needing to bring him up immediately - I didn't forsee Hernandez bringing patience at the plate suddenly. Also didn't realize Hernandez isn't a great 2b, but was so good in CF. And Arroyo has been snakebitten. They miss the big hits he has provided and certainly his defense.
If you told me Sale would come back and be 3-0 and Schwarber would rake and be an on-base machine, I wouldn't have thought what happened this past month would happen.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 31, 2021 4:03:36 GMT -5
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 31, 2021 5:34:57 GMT -5
Another ugly game. Not really much of a surprise. At least any nonsense that the Red Sox could catch the Rays will finally be put to rest. The Rays are clearly a superior team to the Sox. I wouldn't know how anybody objectively could say otherwise. Since the Sox swept the Rays really early in the season the Rays have won 8 of 10. I'd expect the Rays to take at least two of the three remaining games this series. The Red Sox hitting was absent, minus Dalbec's hot hitting. Against TB's pitching this isn't much of a surprise. What's alarming is the amount of bad defense the Sox have been playing. And now with the COVID news, you have to wonder if it'll get even worse and possibly put the Sox at a big disadvantage for the next two to three weeks, and place them in jeopardy of missing the playoffs. At the moment, the worse thing is that it sets Barnes back further, giving him less time to get his act together and it really throws the bullpen into chaos. The only real quick fix I can think of is to give Seabold a shot at the rotation and move Houck into the bullpen. Also Brasier is returning, which may or may not help the pen a heckuva lot. I have to admit, that about 2/3 into the season I was having World Series fantasies with thought of how to best put together a roster for the post-season. At the time I wouldn't have it thought it crazy for the Sox to make the ALCS. Now, they'd be fortunate to make the playoffs, and the only goal at this point is to beat the Yankees in a 1 game playoff. They could get swept by TB soon afterward and it wouldn't bother me. But losing to the Yankees might be even worse than blowing a huge lead in the playoff race and not making the playoffs altogether. With the Sox doing as well as they were doing and Sale and Schwarber on the horizon....I knew the Sox had some issues, but I didn't think it would get this bad this quick and now the Covid stuff...geez. What a letdown. Turns out I was wrong and right about the deadline stuff. I wanted Rizzo but wasn't stuck on him necessarily as the 1b solution. Loved Schwarber's bat but not crazy about his defense or him forcing JDM into outfield duty. Didn't anticipate Dalbec getting hot with the bat, although I do think he could go ice cold in September and his defense is his defense. But I was correct about the pen needing reinforcements and Robles and Davis hardly qualify as reinforcements. More, they are the kind of guys you try to get upgrades over. And now the pen is really, really thin, and it's costing the Sox games, along with some jagged defense. I was excited about Duran and still think he can be part of the future, but his presence helped cost the Sox their defensive outfield strength. I was wrong about the Sox needing to bring him up immediately - I didn't forsee Hernandez bringing patience at the plate suddenly. Also didn't realize Hernandez isn't a great 2b, but was so good in CF. And Arroyo has been snakebitten. They miss the big hits he has provided and certainly his defense. If you told me Sale would come back and be 3-0 and Schwarber would rake and be an on-base machine, I wouldn't have thought what happened this past month would happen. OK so if the Rays are a better team, which I am not arguing against, how do they actually measure up position to position? If you look at it as you who would you trade heads up player for player at each position? And that is for right now not the next 5 years as that is immaterial at this moment. Like Xander vs Wander. The Sox win that scenario easily so why is TBay better? Defense would be a reason but that is only 14 errors difference on the season. They have scored 30 some odd more runs and given up 74 fewer ER. Walked 67 more times and given up 94 fewer walks. Hmm could that be it? Plate discipline and pitchers throwing strikes. I think this an example of TBay doing what the Sox have done with Houck this year along with the rest of the staff. TBay has been doing it for a long time now so the pitching staff has bought in and they are the best at it. Eleven different guys have saves and the Sox actually have more QS on the season than them. This is how they have been able to have just as good a record as the Sox over the last 15 seasons. Now just think how good the Sox could be with this strategy but with a budget of 120 million more. Yes I did just find a silver lining to this whole "they are better than us" topic, maybe. As someone pointed out the other day, every time Houck leaves guys on base when he is pulled they all score. Controversial I know and the Sox pen is depleted but why not just embrace the limited inning strategy and not push for more from your starters, which is when they fall apart. Build a staff that can handle it with multiple 2,3,4,5 inning guys to supplement the Sales and Eovoldies of the world. Face it in todays game their are very few pitchers who make it thru the lineup 3 times and give a solid 7, why fight it. Why have 5 guys that can only go 1 inning or less at times. TBay has proven time and again that this strategy works and our GM is the pioneer of it so I think it is safe to say the future is here, time to embrace it. LOL this reminds me of a time when Grady left Pedro in back in 03.
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,656
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Post by shagworthy on Aug 31, 2021 7:13:39 GMT -5
What does it say about the state of our offense when we most look forward to Bobby D's at bats? That's like being a French Aristocrat looking forward to the guillotine.
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Post by patford on Aug 31, 2021 7:24:56 GMT -5
Another ugly game. Not really much of a surprise. At least any nonsense that the Red Sox could catch the Rays will finally be put to rest. The Rays are clearly a superior team to the Sox. I wouldn't know how anybody objectively could say otherwise. Since the Sox swept the Rays really early in the season the Rays have won 8 of 10. I'd expect the Rays to take at least two of the three remaining games this series. The Red Sox hitting was absent, minus Dalbec's hot hitting. Against TB's pitching this isn't much of a surprise. What's alarming is the amount of bad defense the Sox have been playing. And now with the COVID news, you have to wonder if it'll get even worse and possibly put the Sox at a big disadvantage for the next two to three weeks, and place them in jeopardy of missing the playoffs. At the moment, the worse thing is that it sets Barnes back further, giving him less time to get his act together and it really throws the bullpen into chaos. The only real quick fix I can think of is to give Seabold a shot at the rotation and move Houck into the bullpen. Also Brasier is returning, which may or may not help the pen a heckuva lot. I have to admit, that about 2/3 into the season I was having World Series fantasies with thought of how to best put together a roster for the post-season. At the time I wouldn't have it thought it crazy for the Sox to make the ALCS. Now, they'd be fortunate to make the playoffs, and the only goal at this point is to beat the Yankees in a 1 game playoff. They could get swept by TB soon afterward and it wouldn't bother me. But losing to the Yankees might be even worse than blowing a huge lead in the playoff race and not making the playoffs altogether. With the Sox doing as well as they were doing and Sale and Schwarber on the horizon....I knew the Sox had some issues, but I didn't think it would get this bad this quick and now the Covid stuff...geez. What a letdown. Turns out I was wrong and right about the deadline stuff. I wanted Rizzo but wasn't stuck on him necessarily as the 1b solution. Loved Schwarber's bat but not crazy about his defense or him forcing JDM into outfield duty. Didn't anticipate Dalbec getting hot with the bat, although I do think he could go ice cold in September and his defense is his defense. But I was correct about the pen needing reinforcements and Robles and Davis hardly qualify as reinforcements. More, they are the kind of guys you try to get upgrades over. And now the pen is really, really thin, and it's costing the Sox games, along with some jagged defense. I was excited about Duran and still think he can be part of the future, but his presence helped cost the Sox their defensive outfield strength. I was wrong about the Sox needing to bring him up immediately - I didn't forsee Hernandez bringing patience at the plate suddenly. Also didn't realize Hernandez isn't a great 2b, but was so good in CF. And Arroyo has been snakebitten. They miss the big hits he has provided and certainly his defense. If you told me Sale would come back and be 3-0 and Schwarber would rake and be an on-base machine, I wouldn't have thought what happened this past month would happen. OK so if the Rays are a better team, which I am not arguing against, how do they actually measure up position to position? If you look at it as you who would you trade heads up player for player at each position? And that is for right now not the next 5 years as that is immaterial at this moment. Like Xander vs Wander. The Sox win that scenario easily so why is TBay better? Defense would be a reason but that is only 14 errors difference on the season. They have scored 30 some odd more runs and given up 74 fewer ER. Walked 67 more times and given up 94 fewer walks. Hmm could that be it? Plate discipline and pitchers throwing strikes. I think this an example of TBay doing what the Sox have done with Houck this year along with the rest of the staff. TBay has been doing it for a long time now so the pitching staff has bought in and they are the best at it. Eleven different guys have saves and the Sox actually have more QS on the season than them. This is how they have been able to have just as good a record as the Sox over the last 15 seasons. Now just think how good the Sox could be with this strategy but with a budget of 120 million more. Yes I did just find a silver lining to this whole "they are better than us" topic, maybe. As someone pointed out the other day, every time Houck leaves guys on base when he is pulled they all score. Controversial I know and the Sox pen is depleted but why not just embrace the limited inning strategy and not push for more from your starters, which is when they fall apart. Build a staff that can handle it with multiple 2,3,4,5 inning guys to supplement the Sales and Eovoldies of the world. Face it in todays game their are very few pitchers who make it thru the lineup 3 times and give a solid 7, why fight it. Why have 5 guys that can only go 1 inning or less at times. TBay has proven time and again that this strategy works and our GM is the pioneer of it so I think it is safe to say the future is here, time to embrace it. LOL this reminds me of a time when Grady left Pedro in back in 03. The Rays offense is nearly identical to the Yankees. It's a bunch of guys who don't hit for average but hit HR and walk a lot. This is apparently the three outcomes MLB wants. Which is weird because the theory is that approach is hurting the game. The Rays team average is .240. Take Zunino their catcher as an example. He's hitting .201 but has 27 HR and an .846 OBPS. This is the sort of model which MLB rewards. Long tedious AB, lots of walks and lots of HR. Look around MLB. The Red Sox have 407 BB. Tampa has 481 BB NYY have 526 BB
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Post by manfred on Aug 31, 2021 8:43:55 GMT -5
What does it say about the state of our offense when we most look forward to Bobby D's at bats? That's like being a French Aristocrat looking forward to the guillotine. I am often looking forward to the guillotine by the fifth inning.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 31, 2021 8:44:50 GMT -5
I don't think "MLB wants" a three-outcome future. MLB has hired Theo Epstein to try to figure out how to get rid of it, despite the fact that teams are incentivized to fall in line because it's winning.
The only way that you're going to get rid of it is to come up with a way to beat it. To me, that's recruiting and developing pitchers with command who can pitch to weak contact. Keep the ball in the ballpark and suddenly those K's aren't as forgivable and the walks turn into DPs more often. Fewer K's, BBs, and dongs; more balls put in play and action. This is part of how the Red Sox won so much in the first half. Sox pitchers were leading the world in weak contact and not giving up any bombs.
The challenge is that the current 3-outcome situation is driven by physics. Coaches have figured out how to biomechanically coax more and more velo out of young pitchers, so their 89 with movement is now 95 with movement but they don't always know where it's going. So more whiffs and more walks and more dongs when the ball finds a barrel.
But big league hitters can hit the fastest fastball so teams like TB are having their pitchers throw more breaking balls to hitters who have to be ready for 95 (which is apparently why TB has so many pitchers out for the year).
Now that everyone knows who to coax velo out of just about any kid, that's what everyone is doing. Wouldn't you be foolish to ignore it? I say, find me a coach who can teach young pitchers to command their pitches and induce weak contact consistently and they'll be strapped to a rocket to the top of the standings.
Impossible, you say? It doesn't work that way? I would guess that's what we all would've said 20 years ago about every team having 8-10 pitchers who throw 95.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 31, 2021 9:20:40 GMT -5
I don't think "MLB wants" a three-outcome future. MLB has hired Theo Epstein to try to figure out how to get rid of it, despite the fact that teams are incentivized to fall in line because it's winning. The only way that you're going to get rid of it is to come up with a way to beat it. To me, that's recruiting and developing pitchers with command who can pitch to weak contact. Keep the ball in the ballpark and suddenly those K's aren't as forgivable and the walks turn into DPs more often. Fewer K's, BBs, and dongs; more balls put in play and action. This is part of how the Red Sox won so much in the first half. Sox pitchers were leading the world in weak contact and not giving up any bombs. The challenge is that the current 3-outcome situation is driven by physics. Coaches have figured out how to biomechanically coax more and more velo out of young pitchers, so their 89 with movement is now 95 with movement but they don't always know where it's going. So more whiffs and more walks and more dongs when the ball finds a barrel. But big league hitters can hit the fastest fastball so teams like TB are having their pitchers throw more breaking balls to hitters who have to be ready for 95 (which is apparently why TB has so many pitchers out for the year). Now that everyone knows who to coax velo out of just about any kid, that's what everyone is doing. Wouldn't you be foolish to ignore it? I say, find me a coach who can teach young pitchers to command their pitches and induce weak contact consistently and they'll be strapped to a rocket to the top of the standings. Impossible, you say? It doesn't work that way? I would guess that's what we all would've said 20 years ago about every team having 8-10 pitchers who throw 95. So true. The Rays have a bunch of guys hitting .220 with a ton of Ks, but a lot of walks and homers. They have a bunch of interchangeable pitchers, but they do have some young studs. McClanahan and Patino are really good young starters capable of being more than 5 inning starters. But they do fill in the rest of their staff with guys they somehow maximize. I think it's their GM but Kyle Snyder must be doing a damn good job too. You don't really see the Sox having the same success rate that the Rays have when they pick up a pitcher, like the kid from Milwaukee, Wisner, etc. It's like TB picks them up and suddenly they pitch better than they ever have. The Rays utilize lineups matchups as well as anybody. They're never too right handed or too left handed. Their bench is always full of useful players. And they play defense. The convert batted balls into outs, which the Sox don't do a good job of. The Sox were toward the front end of the current age where three true outcomes scenarios became acceptable and even advantageous. Hell, a lot of us even in the 1980s growing up reading Bill James knew that OBP trumps batting average, but it wasn't really valued in baseball until the first decade of this century, but it has become a scenario where all offenses are basically three true outcomes. I mean, how else do you have a league BA of .240 or less and still have a league ERA above 4? In 1968 they had the same batting averages but the league ERA was around 3. It's the walks and the tons of HRs turning the game into fastpitch softball. Which renders stealing bases kind of moot and makes the strikeouts go through the roof, making the game hard to watch, stylistically. I hope Theo is able to get this fixed so it returns more to the game I grew up watching in the 1980s. Part of me wonders if that's old fogeyism, where I think what I grew up with was better than what is today. I mean, I love music and TV and the style of baseball a helluva lot better in the 1970s/1980s than what I see today, but I honestly believe it's better, so how much of that is old fogeyism versus damn, I'm really right about this? I mean, I have trouble believing this style of play we see today is better for the game. I think the idea the Sox had was to have a team that didn't walk much, but rather put the ball in play and didn't wait back for the 3-run HR. It worked for awhile, but it didn't take too long for teams to see that the Sox aggressiveness could be used against them, by having them chase a bunch of pitches outside of the strike zone. But in 2018, the Sox were good at avoiding the strike out, putting the ball in play and making things happen on the basepaths, something the Sox in 2021 aren't particularly great at. I would like to see the starters find their way back to 7 inning starts as opposed to the 5 and fly stuff we see today. I don't like this need two three inning guys to get through 6 innings stuff. Maybe it's just evolution continuing as I know we don't see complete games as the norm anymore and the 4 man rotations are long gone. But at some point doesn't this evolution get ridiculous? I mean are we going to require 27 pitchers on a staff to get 27 outs? At what point does it start going back the other way? I mean, the idea of Cole vs Sale for the playoff is enticing, but the way things are going it'll be the best 4 inning starter vs some other team's best 4 inning starter. It's crazy. At some point, kids developing in the minor league system have to figure out how to get a guy out the 3rd time through the lineup and figure out a way they can pace themselves to last 7 innings instead of airing everything out for 4 or 5 and handing off to the next guy doing the same thing. As Theo Epstein said, they're not pitching anymore, they're bat dodging. I hope Theo can fix things. If anybody can, he can. They got the right man on the job.
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Post by greenmonster on Aug 31, 2021 10:05:39 GMT -5
I don't think "MLB wants" a three-outcome future. MLB has hired Theo Epstein to try to figure out how to get rid of it, despite the fact that teams are incentivized to fall in line because it's winning. The only way that you're going to get rid of it is to come up with a way to beat it. To me, that's recruiting and developing pitchers with command who can pitch to weak contact. Keep the ball in the ballpark and suddenly those K's aren't as forgivable and the walks turn into DPs more often. Fewer K's, BBs, and dongs; more balls put in play and action. This is part of how the Red Sox won so much in the first half. Sox pitchers were leading the world in weak contact and not giving up any bombs. The challenge is that the current 3-outcome situation is driven by physics. Coaches have figured out how to biomechanically coax more and more velo out of young pitchers, so their 89 with movement is now 95 with movement but they don't always know where it's going. So more whiffs and more walks and more dongs when the ball finds a barrel. But big league hitters can hit the fastest fastball so teams like TB are having their pitchers throw more breaking balls to hitters who have to be ready for 95 (which is apparently why TB has so many pitchers out for the year). Now that everyone knows who to coax velo out of just about any kid, that's what everyone is doing. Wouldn't you be foolish to ignore it? I say, find me a coach who can teach young pitchers to command their pitches and induce weak contact consistently and they'll be strapped to a rocket to the top of the standings. Impossible, you say? It doesn't work that way? I would guess that's what we all would've said 20 years ago about every team having 8-10 pitchers who throw 95. So true. The Rays have a bunch of guys hitting .220 with a ton of Ks, but a lot of walks and homers. They have a bunch of interchangeable pitchers, but they do have some young studs. McClanahan and Patino are really good young starters capable of being more than 5 inning starters. But they do fill in the rest of their staff with guys they somehow maximize. I think it's their GM but Kyle Snyder must be doing a damn good job too. You don't really see the Sox having the same success rate that the Rays have when they pick up a pitcher, like the kid from Milwaukee, Wisner, etc. It's like TB picks them up and suddenly they pitch better than they ever have. The Rays utilize lineups matchups as well as anybody. They're never too right handed or too left handed. Their bench is always full of useful players. And they play defense. The convert batted balls into outs, which the Sox don't do a good job of. The Sox were toward the front end of the current age where three true outcomes scenarios became acceptable and even advantageous. Hell, a lot of us even in the 1980s growing up reading Bill James knew that OBP trumps batting average, but it wasn't really valued in baseball until the first decade of this century, but it has become a scenario where all offenses are basically three true outcomes. I mean, how else do you have a league BA of .240 or less and still have a league ERA above 4? In 1968 they had the same batting averages but the league ERA was around 3. It's the walks and the tons of HRs turning the game into fastpitch softball. Which renders stealing bases kind of moot and makes the strikeouts go through the roof, making the game hard to watch, stylistically. I hope Theo is able to get this fixed so it returns more to the game I grew up watching in the 1980s. Part of me wonders if that's old fogeyism, where I think what I grew up with was better than what is today. I mean, I love music and TV and the style of baseball a helluva lot better in the 1970s/1980s than what I see today, but I honestly believe it's better, so how much of that is old fogeyism versus damn, I'm really right about this? I mean, I have trouble believing this style of play we see today is better for the game. I think the idea the Sox had was to have a team that didn't walk much, but rather put the ball in play and didn't wait back for the 3-run HR. It worked for awhile, but it didn't take too long for teams to see that the Sox aggressiveness could be used against them, by having them chase a bunch of pitches outside of the strike zone. But in 2018, the Sox were good at avoiding the strike out, putting the ball in play and making things happen on the basepaths, something the Sox in 2021 aren't particularly great at. I would like to see the starters find their way back to 7 inning starts as opposed to the 5 and fly stuff we see today. I don't like this need two three inning guys to get through 6 innings stuff. Maybe it's just evolution continuing as I know we don't see complete games as the norm anymore and the 4 man rotations are long gone. But at some point doesn't this evolution get ridiculous? I mean are we going to require 27 pitchers on a staff to get 27 outs? At what point does it start going back the other way? I mean, the idea of Cole vs Sale for the playoff is enticing, but the way things are going it'll be the best 4 inning starter vs some other team's best 4 inning starter. It's crazy. At some point, kids developing in the minor league system have to figure out how to get a guy out the 3rd time through the lineup and figure out a way they can pace themselves to last 7 innings instead of airing everything out for 4 or 5 and handing off to the next guy doing the same thing. As Theo Epstein said, they're not pitching anymore, they're bat dodging. I hope Theo can fix things. If anybody can, he can. They got the right man on the job. I agree with every word. I eat/sleep/drink baseball and raised two boys who enjoyed very successful college careers. Our entire lives revolve around baseball, but I really don't like the direction that it is heading. I don't know what the answer is but I sure hope Theo (and others) can figure it out before baseball dry's on the vine. Point of perspective. When I grew up my hometown had 4 different Little Leagues... Today that same town is struggling to support 1.
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Post by patford on Aug 31, 2021 10:28:59 GMT -5
I don't think "MLB wants" a three-outcome future. MLB has hired Theo Epstein to try to figure out how to get rid of it, despite the fact that teams are incentivized to fall in line because it's winning. The only way that you're going to get rid of it is to come up with a way to beat it. To me, that's recruiting and developing pitchers with command who can pitch to weak contact. Keep the ball in the ballpark and suddenly those K's aren't as forgivable and the walks turn into DPs more often. Fewer K's, BBs, and dongs; more balls put in play and action. This is part of how the Red Sox won so much in the first half. Sox pitchers were leading the world in weak contact and not giving up any bombs. The challenge is that the current 3-outcome situation is driven by physics. Coaches have figured out how to biomechanically coax more and more velo out of young pitchers, so their 89 with movement is now 95 with movement but they don't always know where it's going. So more whiffs and more walks and more dongs when the ball finds a barrel. But big league hitters can hit the fastest fastball so teams like TB are having their pitchers throw more breaking balls to hitters who have to be ready for 95 (which is apparently why TB has so many pitchers out for the year). Now that everyone knows who to coax velo out of just about any kid, that's what everyone is doing. Wouldn't you be foolish to ignore it? I say, find me a coach who can teach young pitchers to command their pitches and induce weak contact consistently and they'll be strapped to a rocket to the top of the standings. Impossible, you say? It doesn't work that way? I would guess that's what we all would've said 20 years ago about every team having 8-10 pitchers who throw 95. The number one thing MLB needs to do is begin using robot umpires.
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Post by patford on Aug 31, 2021 10:41:26 GMT -5
It's odd that Bloom did not follow the TB model. Perhaps he believed the MLB PR which claimed MLB was going to address the 3 outcomes problem? The uncanny thing about TB is the team keeps moving parts. They bring in a nobody who has a huge year and then a year later that guy is gone and reverts to stinking and they bring in another nobody. Guys like Logan Morrison come in and hit nearly 40 HR after hitting fewer then 20 on average and going right back to that the second they are out the door. Corey Dickerson, Steven Souza, CJ Cron. etc.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 31, 2021 10:46:26 GMT -5
I don't think "MLB wants" a three-outcome future. MLB has hired Theo Epstein to try to figure out how to get rid of it, despite the fact that teams are incentivized to fall in line because it's winning. The only way that you're going to get rid of it is to come up with a way to beat it. To me, that's recruiting and developing pitchers with command who can pitch to weak contact. Keep the ball in the ballpark and suddenly those K's aren't as forgivable and the walks turn into DPs more often. Fewer K's, BBs, and dongs; more balls put in play and action. This is part of how the Red Sox won so much in the first half. Sox pitchers were leading the world in weak contact and not giving up any bombs. The challenge is that the current 3-outcome situation is driven by physics. Coaches have figured out how to biomechanically coax more and more velo out of young pitchers, so their 89 with movement is now 95 with movement but they don't always know where it's going. So more whiffs and more walks and more dongs when the ball finds a barrel. But big league hitters can hit the fastest fastball so teams like TB are having their pitchers throw more breaking balls to hitters who have to be ready for 95 (which is apparently why TB has so many pitchers out for the year). Now that everyone knows who to coax velo out of just about any kid, that's what everyone is doing. Wouldn't you be foolish to ignore it? I say, find me a coach who can teach young pitchers to command their pitches and induce weak contact consistently and they'll be strapped to a rocket to the top of the standings. Impossible, you say? It doesn't work that way? I would guess that's what we all would've said 20 years ago about every team having 8-10 pitchers who throw 95. If the problem is physics then the solution is physics - namely, the physical characteristics of the ball. It's been suggested that you could redistribute the weight so that there's less spin on pitches, ergo less movement, ergo fewer Ks; and you can deaden the ball so that that doesn't just result in more homers.
What MLB did instead, in its infinite wisdom, is make the ball lighter to reduce homers, but that caused more movement. Homers are down slightly from their 2019 peak (1.39/game to 1.21) but still higher than any year before 2017. And strikeouts are only a hair below their 2019 peak (8.75 from 8.81).
People have talked about moving the mound back [add: or lowering the mound] but if that's the only thing you do then I suspect you're just going to make HR numbers explode, which will incentivize the all-or-nothing swing approach even more. They need a solution that lowers the (HR + K)/PA ratio.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 31, 2021 10:49:23 GMT -5
So true. The Rays have a bunch of guys hitting .220 with a ton of Ks, but a lot of walks and homers. They have a bunch of interchangeable pitchers, but they do have some young studs. McClanahan and Patino are really good young starters capable of being more than 5 inning starters. But they do fill in the rest of their staff with guys they somehow maximize. I think it's their GM but Kyle Snyder must be doing a damn good job too. You don't really see the Sox having the same success rate that the Rays have when they pick up a pitcher, like the kid from Milwaukee, Wisner, etc. It's like TB picks them up and suddenly they pitch better than they ever have. The Rays utilize lineups matchups as well as anybody. They're never too right handed or too left handed. Their bench is always full of useful players. And they play defense. The convert batted balls into outs, which the Sox don't do a good job of. The Sox were toward the front end of the current age where three true outcomes scenarios became acceptable and even advantageous. Hell, a lot of us even in the 1980s growing up reading Bill James knew that OBP trumps batting average, but it wasn't really valued in baseball until the first decade of this century, but it has become a scenario where all offenses are basically three true outcomes. I mean, how else do you have a league BA of .240 or less and still have a league ERA above 4? In 1968 they had the same batting averages but the league ERA was around 3. It's the walks and the tons of HRs turning the game into fastpitch softball. Which renders stealing bases kind of moot and makes the strikeouts go through the roof, making the game hard to watch, stylistically. I hope Theo is able to get this fixed so it returns more to the game I grew up watching in the 1980s. Part of me wonders if that's old fogeyism, where I think what I grew up with was better than what is today. I mean, I love music and TV and the style of baseball a helluva lot better in the 1970s/1980s than what I see today, but I honestly believe it's better, so how much of that is old fogeyism versus damn, I'm really right about this? I mean, I have trouble believing this style of play we see today is better for the game. I think the idea the Sox had was to have a team that didn't walk much, but rather put the ball in play and didn't wait back for the 3-run HR. It worked for awhile, but it didn't take too long for teams to see that the Sox aggressiveness could be used against them, by having them chase a bunch of pitches outside of the strike zone. But in 2018, the Sox were good at avoiding the strike out, putting the ball in play and making things happen on the basepaths, something the Sox in 2021 aren't particularly great at. I would like to see the starters find their way back to 7 inning starts as opposed to the 5 and fly stuff we see today. I don't like this need two three inning guys to get through 6 innings stuff. Maybe it's just evolution continuing as I know we don't see complete games as the norm anymore and the 4 man rotations are long gone. But at some point doesn't this evolution get ridiculous? I mean are we going to require 27 pitchers on a staff to get 27 outs? At what point does it start going back the other way? I mean, the idea of Cole vs Sale for the playoff is enticing, but the way things are going it'll be the best 4 inning starter vs some other team's best 4 inning starter. It's crazy. At some point, kids developing in the minor league system have to figure out how to get a guy out the 3rd time through the lineup and figure out a way they can pace themselves to last 7 innings instead of airing everything out for 4 or 5 and handing off to the next guy doing the same thing. As Theo Epstein said, they're not pitching anymore, they're bat dodging. I hope Theo can fix things. If anybody can, he can. They got the right man on the job. I agree with every word. I eat/sleep/drink baseball and raised two boys who enjoyed very successful college careers. Our entire lives revolve around baseball, but I really don't like the direction that it is heading. I don't know what the answer is but I sure hope Theo (and others) can figure it out before baseball dry's on the vine. Point of perspective. When I grew up my hometown had 4 different Little Leagues... Today that same town is struggling to support 1. So true. I feel bad because I had my kid in t-ball and he enjoys using a whiffle bat to hit the ball around and he played pretty well in t-ball. I was really impressed when he was playing 1b and he fielded a grounder and instead of throwing the ball at him or whatever kids do, he instinctively made a beeline for the 1b bag and tagged the bag. But the covid happened and he didn't play in the summer of 20 and he didn't play in the summer of 21. He still has no idea how to use a glove to catch the ball. I tried to teach him but he wasn't really interested and as far as watching baseball, well....while he's interested in Red Sox history that I teach him, he has no desire to watch the games. Why bother when you can play computer games all day long? I'm a 4th generation baseball fan, but I don't know that my son will be a 5th generation one. He's really not interested. Had him collecting baseball cards for awhile, but he lost interest. I'm pushing 50 and I still count down the days until Topps has new cards coming out (can't believe that Topps won't be making licensed cards after 2025.) When I was a kid, we didn't even need organized games. We'd gather as kids and play ball wherever we could. I didn't have cable TV when I was young, so it was all about Saturday games when I'd watch cartoons and then watch Mel Allen host this week in baseball and then if we were lucky the Sox were the game of the week with Joe Garagiola and Tony Kubek. I collected the daily baseball standings each day and that's how I learned how to divide, because I was always curious to see how batting average or winning percentage worked. But now, it's hard to see what would keep kids interested. The game on the field is so one dimensional these days. Some of the numbers are illuminating and others are kind of a turnoff. It's almost like you have to know trigonometry or something to know how some of it works. I mean, I have no idea how WAR is calculated. It's so damn complicated and who knows exactly how accurate it is? I used to have a helluva lot more fun computing Wade Boggs' season and lifetime batting average after every hit he got (which was so often in those days).
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 31, 2021 11:40:19 GMT -5
Lower the mound and the velo will drop, no ?
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 31, 2021 11:42:45 GMT -5
you have to give Tampa credit with the run the last 3 -4 years, but they are the outlier. It could just be a run of good luck.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 31, 2021 11:47:40 GMT -5
you have to give Tampa credit with the run the last 3 -4 years, but they are the outlier. It could just be a run of good luck. I think they have made their own luck. It's probably more impressive than all that moneyball stuff Billy Beane got credit for. The Rays aren't living off of Mulder/Zito/Hudson they way the A's did, not that Beane didn't do impressive stuff, but still, the Rays have been succeeding on low payrolls and no franchise players or superstars of any sort, and constant turnover.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 31, 2021 12:33:33 GMT -5
you have to give Tampa credit with the run the last 3 -4 years, but they are the outlier. It could just be a run of good luck. I think they have made their own luck. It's probably more impressive than all that moneyball stuff Billy Beane got credit for. The Rays aren't living off of Mulder/Zito/Hudson they way the A's did, not that Beane didn't do impressive stuff, but still, the Rays have been succeeding on low payrolls and no franchise players or superstars of any sort, and constant turnover. I agree with this - I am not big on luck - particularly over a long period time. On a small scale, it is pretty random...luck (good or bad) to me is mostly on injuries to stars. For the long haul, Tampa are doing lots of things right, and I take no joy in saying that - horrible stadium, mostly uninterested fan base.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 31, 2021 12:48:15 GMT -5
Who's starting for the Sox tonight? Any chance Seabold gets a call-up? I think they should give him a start at some point, if not tonight to see if he can help and if he can start so he can free up Houck for the bullpen.
I don't know if he's lined up to pitch but I'd certainly rather see him pitch than have a bullpen-by-disaster game.
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Post by vokuhila on Aug 31, 2021 13:02:56 GMT -5
Seabold threw 92 pitches on the 28th. He won't pitch tonight.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 31, 2021 13:27:01 GMT -5
Seabold threw 92 pitches on the 28th. He won't pitch tonight. Ah that's too bad. I think they need to see if he can contribute this season. A bullpen game, woo-hoo.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 31, 2021 13:34:50 GMT -5
So who is likely available? Whitlock, Ottavino, Davis, Sawamura, Richards, Valdez - wasn't Brasier supposed to be activated today?
Yikes - of that bunch, there is Whitlock, then Ottavino, then....hope we score a LOT of runs!
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Post by Guidas on Aug 31, 2021 14:07:28 GMT -5
I don't think "MLB wants" a three-outcome future. MLB has hired Theo Epstein to try to figure out how to get rid of it, despite the fact that teams are incentivized to fall in line because it's winning. The only way that you're going to get rid of it is to come up with a way to beat it. To me, that's recruiting and developing pitchers with command who can pitch to weak contact. Keep the ball in the ballpark and suddenly those K's aren't as forgivable and the walks turn into DPs more often. Fewer K's, BBs, and dongs; more balls put in play and action. This is part of how the Red Sox won so much in the first half. Sox pitchers were leading the world in weak contact and not giving up any bombs. The challenge is that the current 3-outcome situation is driven by physics. Coaches have figured out how to biomechanically coax more and more velo out of young pitchers, so their 89 with movement is now 95 with movement but they don't always know where it's going. So more whiffs and more walks and more dongs when the ball finds a barrel. But big league hitters can hit the fastest fastball so teams like TB are having their pitchers throw more breaking balls to hitters who have to be ready for 95 (which is apparently why TB has so many pitchers out for the year). Now that everyone knows who to coax velo out of just about any kid, that's what everyone is doing. Wouldn't you be foolish to ignore it? I say, find me a coach who can teach young pitchers to command their pitches and induce weak contact consistently and they'll be strapped to a rocket to the top of the standings. Impossible, you say? It doesn't work that way? I would guess that's what we all would've said 20 years ago about every team having 8-10 pitchers who throw 95. The number one thing MLB needs to do is begin using robot umpires. That and integrate the universal DH. Hell, I can't believe I'm saying it, but I would like uniform ball park dimensions from fences in and a 10 foot maximum fence height. That would still allow you to have unique ballyards but a homerun in one is a homerun in all. The only exception would be Colorado, where the fences would be adjusted outward to account for the absurd effect of the altitude. Otherwise, the Monster could stay, but they'd have to accommodate the 10 foot mark (they could cut seats into the Monster like they have in FL - or just paint a red line and pad it to the top so balls would die if they are over 10 feet. It's just bizarre to me that a given hit is a score in one park but not another. Imagine if this was the same in the NFL/NHL/NBA. Boston has 9.80 foot baskets, but L.A. has 11.02 foot - nuts! They will never do this, of course, yet they muck around with the ball every other year. Absurd.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 31, 2021 14:47:54 GMT -5
I don't think "MLB wants" a three-outcome future. MLB has hired Theo Epstein to try to figure out how to get rid of it, despite the fact that teams are incentivized to fall in line because it's winning. The only way that you're going to get rid of it is to come up with a way to beat it. To me, that's recruiting and developing pitchers with command who can pitch to weak contact. Keep the ball in the ballpark and suddenly those K's aren't as forgivable and the walks turn into DPs more often. Fewer K's, BBs, and dongs; more balls put in play and action. This is part of how the Red Sox won so much in the first half. Sox pitchers were leading the world in weak contact and not giving up any bombs. The challenge is that the current 3-outcome situation is driven by physics. Coaches have figured out how to biomechanically coax more and more velo out of young pitchers, so their 89 with movement is now 95 with movement but they don't always know where it's going. So more whiffs and more walks and more dongs when the ball finds a barrel. But big league hitters can hit the fastest fastball so teams like TB are having their pitchers throw more breaking balls to hitters who have to be ready for 95 (which is apparently why TB has so many pitchers out for the year). Now that everyone knows who to coax velo out of just about any kid, that's what everyone is doing. Wouldn't you be foolish to ignore it? I say, find me a coach who can teach young pitchers to command their pitches and induce weak contact consistently and they'll be strapped to a rocket to the top of the standings. Impossible, you say? It doesn't work that way? I would guess that's what we all would've said 20 years ago about every team having 8-10 pitchers who throw 95. If the problem is physics then the solution is physics - namely, the physical characteristics of the ball. It's been suggested that you could redistribute the weight so that there's less spin on pitches, ergo less movement, ergo fewer Ks; and you can deaden the ball so that that doesn't just result in more homers.
What MLB did instead, in its infinite wisdom, is make the ball lighter to reduce homers, but that caused more movement. Homers are down slightly from their 2019 peak (1.39/game to 1.21) but still higher than any year before 2017. And strikeouts are only a hair below their 2019 peak (8.75 from 8.81).
People have talked about moving the mound back [add: or lowering the mound] but if that's the only thing you do then I suspect you're just going to make HR numbers explode, which will incentivize the all-or-nothing swing approach even more. They need a solution that lowers the (HR + K)/PA ratio.
Part of the "problem" is that MLB bought the company that makes the baseballs and they have been making them much more uniform. Back in the day, there was a lot more to making baseballs that was "hand made" and therefore they were more variable, which ensured a lot more randomness in outcomes of ABs. A slightly deader ball might not go out even if it was crushed. A slightly livelier ball might go farther than it should have. Maybe some balls had slightly higher seams than others. Today every ball is pretty much the same -- this should be a good thing once MLB figures out the properties that they want to tweak to get to a desired result (i.e. more action).
One other thing that I've noticed while watching old World Series games on youtube (from the '50s, '60s, '70s...): Batters used to swing A LOT more. Most ABs would be decided within the first few pitches as the batter put the ball in play (or the batter whiffed). This probably is related to the fact that most pitchers threw the ball at a speed that wasn't as challenging to most batters. Free swinging was kneecapped by the OBP-driven pitches-per-AB emphasis, starting around 2000, and was extinguished by batters constantly facing high-90s heat in the past decade. R.I.P. balls in play...
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Post by greenmonster on Aug 31, 2021 15:13:59 GMT -5
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