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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 9, 2022 4:05:19 GMT -5
They used to say the earth is 2/3 covered by water. Garry Maddox had the rest. Due to global warming, it’s prob 70pct water and Ceddanne got the other 30pct.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 9, 2022 5:44:01 GMT -5
I've been following SoxProspects for a few weeks, give or take. It wouldn't shock me to see 4 players with '8' ceilings. Rafaela, Bello, Meyer & Bleis. Not going to happen. Lol.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 9, 2022 7:03:10 GMT -5
Doesn't Bleis already have an 8 ceiling? Bleis already has an 8 ceiling (why do we ask questions we already know the answer to)
I'm not sure Ragaela has the hit/power tools to get to an 8 ceiling....and that's ok. I don't think Bello has the stuff for an 8 ceiling either. Remember 8 ceilings are essentially saying this guy is going to be competing for MVP's and Cy Youngs. By the time Bello could show enough to get there (if he had it in him) he'd have graduated.
Mayer I can see getting there.
Regardless, I'm starting to really like Rafaela.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 9, 2022 7:46:11 GMT -5
Rafaela's been my new binky since I saw him in May. He could start in CF next year and probably have prime(ish) JBJ numbers, but I'd like to see him get 300-400 AAA PAs before he sniffs MLB.
All that said, I don't think he (or any Sox prospect) has an 8 ceiling. I mean, that's Mike Trout 9-10 annual fWAR. I think that's once in a generation or less. I'd be elated if he, or any of the Sox prospects, reach a 6 ceiling. He's a dynamic OF, who should probably stay there as the infield is a waste of his talents. Also, very exciting on the bases and will be an "event" when he gets on, especially with the new pick-off rules being implemented. Really looking forward to his debut.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 9, 2022 8:53:48 GMT -5
Rafaela's been my new binky since I saw him in May. He could start in CF next year and probably have prime(ish) JBJ numbers, but I'd like to see him get 300-400 AAA PAs before he sniffs MLB. All that said, I don't think he (or any Sox prospect) has an 8 ceiling. I mean, that's Mike Trout 9-10 annual fWAR. I think that's once in a generation or less. I'd be elated if he, or any of the Sox prospects, reach a 6 ceiling. He's a dynamic OF, who should probably stay there as the infield is a waste of his talents. Also, very exciting on the bases and will be an "event" when he gets on, especially with the new pick-off rules being implemented. Really looking forward to his debut. There's a difference between ceiling and projection.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 9, 2022 9:47:50 GMT -5
Keep in mind that an 8 is a franchise player you can expect 7 WAR from year in and year out on our scale. Here is the list of players who had 28+ fWAR from 2016-19 (just trying to work around 2020): Mike Trout, Mookie Betts. Here are those with 13+ (accounting for there being a month left) fWAR 2021-22: Aaron Judge.
Das it.
A ceiling of "best player in baseball" is a heady thing to throw out there. Many scouts literally will not because becoming that kind of player takes something that you don't see until the player is in MLB. Part of me even kind of wishes we held off on Bleis until he was higher in the system (don't read that as me disagreeing with what we have right now - more of a nagging question).
I can guarantee we will never, ever have 4 guys in the system with 8 ceilings. There are maybe a handful of guys in baseball with that ceiling, never mind the same system.
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Post by terriblehondo on Sept 9, 2022 11:28:23 GMT -5
The nice thing about him is his defense will play in the majors already. Just let the bat develop and don't rush him.
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Post by jayhawk on Sept 9, 2022 15:10:01 GMT -5
Keep in mind that an 8 is a franchise player you can expect 7 WAR from year in and year out on our scale. Here is the list of players who had 28+ fWAR from 2016-19 (just trying to work around 2020): Mike Trout, Mookie Betts. Here are those with 13+ (accounting for there being a month left) fWAR 2021-22: Aaron Judge. Das it. A ceiling of "best player in baseball" is a heady thing to throw out there. Many scouts literally will not because becoming that kind of player takes something that you don't see until the player is in MLB. Part of me even kind of wishes we held off on Bleis until he was higher in the system (don't read that as me disagreeing with what we have right now - more of a nagging question). I can guarantee we will never, ever have 4 guys in the system with 8 ceilings. There are maybe a handful of guys in baseball with that ceiling, never mind the same system.
Out of curiosity I looked back to see what the best mix of realized 7/8 potential guys was in the system. Based entirely on memory and light review of old rankings I see peak being:
April 2014 Mookie (think we can all agree on an 8 ceiling) Xander (7)
Devers (7)
October 2005 Pedroia (7.5 ceiling? Did win an MVP in there)
Papelbon (7)
Lester (7)
Hanley (7) Ellsbury (7) (note: not included are Buchholz, Sanchez, Lowrie and I'm sure others I'm not thinking of who would be solid 6s)
So 4 (even 5) actual 7s in the system at one time has been realized, though I believe we are unlikely to see that combination of quantity and quality again anytime soon. Still... only a single 8 among all those great players.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 9, 2022 15:46:05 GMT -5
Keep in mind that an 8 is a franchise player you can expect 7 WAR from year in and year out on our scale. Here is the list of players who had 28+ fWAR from 2016-19 (just trying to work around 2020): Mike Trout, Mookie Betts. Here are those with 13+ (accounting for there being a month left) fWAR 2021-22: Aaron Judge. Das it. A ceiling of "best player in baseball" is a heady thing to throw out there. Many scouts literally will not because becoming that kind of player takes something that you don't see until the player is in MLB. Part of me even kind of wishes we held off on Bleis until he was higher in the system (don't read that as me disagreeing with what we have right now - more of a nagging question). I can guarantee we will never, ever have 4 guys in the system with 8 ceilings. There are maybe a handful of guys in baseball with that ceiling, never mind the same system.
Out of curiosity I looked back to see what the best mix of realized 7/8 potential guys was in the system. Based entirely on memory and light review of old rankings I see peak being:
April 2014 Mookie (think we can all agree on an 8 ceiling) Xander (7)
Devers (7)
October 2005 Pedroia (7.5 ceiling? Did win an MVP in there)
Papelbon (7)
Lester (7)
Hanley (7) Ellsbury (7) (note: not included are Buchholz, Sanchez, Lowrie and I'm sure others I'm not thinking of who would be solid 6s)
So 4 (even 5) actual 7s in the system at one time has been realized, though I believe we are unlikely to see that combination of quantity and quality again anytime soon. Still... only a single 8 among all those great players.
It was either Chris or someone else from the soxprospect staff who chimmed in on this the other day, I forget the others but I believe both Bogaerts and Kelly were 8's although I think they had an older system in place at one point where the scale went to 10 so Kelly might have been a 10 (8).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 9, 2022 22:24:50 GMT -5
First, I said nothing about at the same time. I'll break down my thoughts. Again though ceiling, not projection.
Bleis, already an 8.
Bello, I don't believe the Sox will use up his rookie status in a losing season so, he has into next year to potentially get there. I'm convinced that his change up is the best single pitch in our system and one of the best in the majors. The rest of his repetoir plays well to it.
Mayer. The tools are there. Time will tell.
Rafaela. My thought only. Defence is off the charts no matter where you play him. Where there's disagreement is with the the hit and power tools. The results are there, just not the peripherals. He's improving on the strike zone judgement recently but I have a different reason. I believe he has Pedroia's hand eye coordination with a faster bat and more athletic, bigger body. That coordination shows up in his defence.
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Post by bosox904 on Sept 9, 2022 22:42:36 GMT -5
First, I said nothing about at the same time. I'll break down my thoughts. Again though ceiling, not projection. Bleis, already an 8. Bello, I don't believe the Sox will use up his rookie status in a losing season so, he has into next year to potentially get there. I'm convinced that his change up is the best single pitch in our system and one of the best in the majors. The rest of his repetoir plays well to it. Mayer. The tools are there. Time will tell. Rafaela. My thought only. Defence is off the charts no matter where you play him. Where there's disagreement is with the the hit and power tools. The results are there, just not the peripherals. He's improving on the strike zone judgement recently but I have a different reason. I believe he has Pedroia's hand eye coordination with a faster bat and more athletic, bigger body. That coordination shows up in his defence. Bello is already ineligible for the rookie compensation pick. The player has ti be rookie eligibility and 60 days or fewer of service time. Since his first start he's at 66 days.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 9, 2022 22:48:12 GMT -5
First, I said nothing about at the same time. I'll break down my thoughts. Again though ceiling, not projection. Bleis, already an 8. Bello, I don't believe the Sox will use up his rookie status in a losing season so, he has into next year to potentially get there. I'm convinced that his change up is the best single pitch in our system and one of the best in the majors. The rest of his repetoir plays well to it. Mayer. The tools are there. Time will tell. Rafaela. My thought only. Defence is off the charts no matter where you play him. Where there's disagreement is with the the hit and power tools. The results are there, just not the peripherals. He's improving on the strike zone judgement recently but I have a different reason. I believe he has Pedroia's hand eye coordination with a faster bat and more athletic, bigger body. That coordination shows up in his defence. Bello is already ineligible for the rookie compensation pick. The player has ti be rookie eligibility and 60 days or fewer of service time. Since his first start he's at 66 days. That may be true but rookie eligibility determines if he's ranked or not. He's already at a career high for IP.
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Post by bosox904 on Sept 9, 2022 22:58:53 GMT -5
Bello is already ineligible for the rookie compensation pick. The player has ti be rookie eligibility and 60 days or fewer of service time. Since his first start he's at 66 days. That may be true but rookie eligibility determines if he's ranked or not. But there's no benefit for the Red Sox to do that. Plus if my calculation is correct, he lost his rookie eligibility today anyway. 66 days of service time. He was on the IL for 20 days, giving him 46 days that apply towards his rookie eligibility.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 9, 2022 23:07:38 GMT -5
That may be true but rookie eligibility determines if he's ranked or not. But there's no benefit for the Red Sox to do that. Plus if my calculation is correct, he lost his rookie eligibility today anyway. 66 days of service time. He was on the IL for 20 days, giving him 46 days that apply towards his rookie eligibility. I don't see the Sox going many inning further for this year when there's nothing to gain. He's basically in the ramp up innings stage.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 10, 2022 4:43:04 GMT -5
This is what I seewhen I watch Bello. Your mileage may differ:
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Post by fenwaydouble on Sept 10, 2022 6:40:02 GMT -5
First, I said nothing about at the same time. I'll break down my thoughts. Again though ceiling, not projection. Bleis, already an 8. Bello, I don't believe the Sox will use up his rookie status in a losing season so, he has into next year to potentially get there. I'm convinced that his change up is the best single pitch in our system and one of the best in the majors. The rest of his repetoir plays well to it. Mayer. The tools are there. Time will tell. Rafaela. My thought only. Defence is off the charts no matter where you play him. Where there's disagreement is with the the hit and power tools. The results are there, just not the peripherals. He's improving on the strike zone judgement recently but I have a different reason. I believe he has Pedroia's hand eye coordination with a faster bat and more athletic, bigger body. That coordination shows up in his defence. The results aren’t there for Rafaela if we’re talking about him being an 8 though. You’re just not going to be the best player in baseball with a .325 OBP. His recent success cutting down his K-rate has made me more optimistic he can actually be a star, but it takes a lot of imagination to see Mookie Betts in there.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 10, 2022 7:43:15 GMT -5
First, I said nothing about at the same time. I'll break down my thoughts. Again though ceiling, not projection. Bleis, already an 8. Bello, I don't believe the Sox will use up his rookie status in a losing season so, he has into next year to potentially get there. I'm convinced that his change up is the best single pitch in our system and one of the best in the majors. The rest of his repetoir plays well to it. Mayer. The tools are there. Time will tell. Rafaela. My thought only. Defence is off the charts no matter where you play him. Where there's disagreement is with the the hit and power tools. The results are there, just not the peripherals. He's improving on the strike zone judgement recently but I have a different reason. I believe he has Pedroia's hand eye coordination with a faster bat and more athletic, bigger body. That coordination shows up in his defence. Bello is already ineligible for the rookie compensation pick. The player has ti be rookie eligibility and 60 days or fewer of service time. Since his first start he's at 66 days. Time on IL doesn't count. That said, unless they shut him down in a start or two, he's going over 50 innings.
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Post by notstarboard on Sept 10, 2022 8:05:17 GMT -5
That may be true but rookie eligibility determines if he's ranked or not. But there's no benefit for the Red Sox to do that. Plus if my calculation is correct, he lost his rookie eligibility today anyway. 66 days of service time. He was on the IL for 20 days, giving him 46 days that apply towards his rookie eligibility. He was also sent down to Worcester for 10 days in the middle, which I assume wouldn't count. Edit: Chris makes a good point about the innings total. Didn't realize that was a thing.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,123
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Post by jimoh on Sept 10, 2022 8:10:44 GMT -5
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Post by iakovos11 on Sept 10, 2022 8:17:47 GMT -5
I think picture 21 of 28 should be on your desktop
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 10, 2022 8:19:41 GMT -5
Going to the Sea Dog game... Hope Cedanne is playing...
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Post by bosox904 on Sept 10, 2022 10:19:14 GMT -5
But there's no benefit for the Red Sox to do that. Plus if my calculation is correct, he lost his rookie eligibility today anyway. 66 days of service time. He was on the IL for 20 days, giving him 46 days that apply towards his rookie eligibility. He was also sent down to Worcester for 10 days in the middle, which I assume wouldn't count. Edit: Chris makes a good point about the innings total. Didn't realize that was a thing. I forgot about him being sent back down for 10 days.
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Post by bosox904 on Sept 10, 2022 10:26:16 GMT -5
Bello is already ineligible for the rookie compensation pick. The player has ti be rookie eligibility and 60 days or fewer of service time. Since his first start he's at 66 days. Time on IL doesn't count. That said, unless they shut him down in a start or two, he's going over 50 innings. Maybe I'm confused about the rule. I know they can't lose rookie eligibility because of time on the IL, but they do still get service time while on the IL. So an example of how I understood this: A player is at 40 days of service time, goes on the IL for 21 days and the season ends. He has 61 days of service time now, but is still eligible for ROY because the 21 days don't count towards rookie eligibility, but the 21 days do count for the PPI. Maybe I'm wrong though. "A team is eligible for Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) draft picks if a rookie-eligible player with 60 days or fewer of major league service who is included on a preseason top 100 prospect list by two or more of Baseball America, ESPN.com or MLB.com is promoted and finishes high in award voting in any year before he is eligible for arbitration."
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 10, 2022 10:37:16 GMT -5
Maybe the boldest claim made was by Double-A Portland Sea Dogs manager Chad Epperson, who watched another premier defensive star quickly adapt from the infield to the outfield.
“Mookie can be (ticked) at me, but this kid runs circles around where (Betts) was at this point in time,” Epperson told Speier. “That’s how special this kid is. You have to see it.”nesn.com/2022/09/red-sox-prospect-ceddanne-rafaela-expected-to-win-a-lot-of-gold-gloves/
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 10, 2022 10:45:13 GMT -5
Maybe the boldest claim made was by Double-A Portland Sea Dogs manager Chad Epperson, who watched another premier defensive star quickly adapt from the infield to the outfield.
“Mookie can be (ticked) at me, but this kid runs circles around where (Betts) was at this point in time,” Epperson told Speier. “That’s how special this kid is. You have to see it.”nesn.com/2022/09/red-sox-prospect-ceddanne-rafaela-expected-to-win-a-lot-of-gold-gloves/ The more I read about raefela the more my prospect crush on him grows. Feels like at this point something would have to go pretty wrong next year for him to not be the 2024 starting CF. He quite frankly just needs to be mediocre with his bat to have value with how good his defense sounds. Little bit of conjecture and just spit balling here but I think Casas is going to be the real deal at first and if you have raefella waiting in the wings to be the CF of the future. That's two starters for very cheap for a number of years. Makes me wonder if Bloom is looking at it the same way and comes out firing with maybe more large money deals than maybe we even expect this offseason. Look at the dodgers they give out big time deals because they know they have the cheap controlled ML talent to offset it. Now I'm not saying the Sox are even close to that Dodgers model in terms of the controlled talent yet but they could maybe get there in the next couple seasons.
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