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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by ramireja on Sept 1, 2021 16:32:50 GMT -5
Could this be our first Ceddanne thread? I guess so. Very encouraged to see this post from Ian. IMO, there's a pretty easy-to-see path to a major league bench role for Ceddanne if he can continue his trajectory:
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 1, 2021 17:36:52 GMT -5
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Sept 1, 2021 17:49:55 GMT -5
| BA | OPS | BB% | K% | IsoP | SB | CS | Gilberto Jimenez | .304 | .749 | 4.2% | 20.4% | .097 | 13 | 8 | Ceddanne Rafaela | .249 | .744 | 6.6% | 17.8% | .189 | 21 | 2 |
Plays better defense too, why isn't he getting the same kind of love Jimenez is getting? Also, he's a freaking champion..
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Post by Costigan on Sept 1, 2021 17:51:40 GMT -5
Has anyone seen how good he looks at short? Rafaela definitely flew under the radar I guess. That's an impressive line since early July.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 1, 2021 18:01:39 GMT -5
| BA | OPS | BB% | K% | IsoP | SB | CS | Gilberto Jimenez | .304 | .749 | 4.2% | 20.4% | .097 | 13 | 8 | Ceddanne Rafaela | .249 | .744 | 6.6% | 17.8% | .189 | 21 | 2 |
Plays better defense too, why isn't he getting the same kind of love Jimenez is getting? Also, he's a freaking champion.. I think this post coupled with his positional flexibility has me worried about him in the rule 5 to the point where I might protect him over Gilberto
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Post by ramireja on Sept 1, 2021 18:24:54 GMT -5
I don't know....not making a comparison to Gilberto in any way, but I just can't see a team selecting him from Low-A and putting him on their major league roster. I just don't know that there is enough upside in the profile to do so. I'm saying that as someone who is pretty high on Rafaela and have him ranked in the 20s in my personal rankings.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 1, 2021 23:43:47 GMT -5
To me, Jimenez' speed makes him a far more likely Rule 5 pick.
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Post by thegawd on Sept 2, 2021 17:02:58 GMT -5
To me, Jimenez' speed makes him a far more likely Rule 5 pick.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
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Post by radiohix on Sept 24, 2021 14:39:28 GMT -5
I was listening to this week’s podcast and Ian said that he saw him playing plus SS, 3rd Base, LF and CF. “I saw him play 4 positions in 5 games and he was above average to plus in all of them….it’s very unique to find someone who can play all these positions at the level he can. I can’t remember someone with that type of versatility at his age.” He also has power (.173 IsoP) and base stealing skills (23 SB in 26 attempts) which make him a better prospect than Jimenez in my opinion.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 24, 2021 17:47:10 GMT -5
One of his middle names is Chipper
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 25, 2021 9:10:44 GMT -5
I was listening to this week’s podcast and Ian said that he saw him playing plus SS, 3rd Base, LF and CF. “I saw him play 4 positions in 5 games and he was above average to plus in all of them….it’s very unique to find someone who can play all these positions at the level he can. I can’t remember someone with that type of versatility at his age.” He also has power (.173 IsoP) and base stealing skills (23 SB in 26 attempts) which make him a better prospect than Jimenez in my opinion. Well, as Ian then said, he doesn't have the bat-to-ball ability that Jimenez does. We actually were kind of wondering about this and Ian asked a number of scouts who've seen Salem this year. Not a single one preferred Rafaela to Jimenez. That said, that's not a knock on Rafaela. I like him a lot and really hope the hit tool comes around.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
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Post by radiohix on Sept 25, 2021 13:02:01 GMT -5
I was listening to this week’s podcast and Ian said that he saw him playing plus SS, 3rd Base, LF and CF. “I saw him play 4 positions in 5 games and he was above average to plus in all of them….it’s very unique to find someone who can play all these positions at the level he can. I can’t remember someone with that type of versatility at his age.” He also has power (.173 IsoP) and base stealing skills (23 SB in 26 attempts) which make him a better prospect than Jimenez in my opinion. Well, as Ian then said, he doesn't have the bat-to-ball ability that Jimenez does. The numbers tell a different story though Jimenez K% 21.1% Rafaela K% 18.4%
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 26, 2021 13:48:05 GMT -5
Bat-to-ball is about more than K rate. Quality of contact is part of it too. Can you get the barrel to the ball rather than top it back to the pitcher or pop it up to the infield?
The two have similar LD% (caveats about milb BIP data apply), but it's interesting that Jimenez has a BABIP 100 points higher despite having a GB% that's like 12 percentage points higher (he's faster than Rafaela, but Rafaela is also pretty fast). That's in part because Rafaela hits more infield fly balls and based on a limited sample size that I've seen, while he has more present power, he likely his more toppers back to the mound, and he definitely hits more infield pop-ups. I don't have exit velo data in front of me but I would bet good money Jimenez's data compares favorably to Rafaela's, for now at least, despite Rafaela having better present power.
That said, we'll see how this winds up developing going forward.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 27, 2021 20:28:08 GMT -5
I was listening to this week’s podcast and Ian said that he saw him playing plus SS, 3rd Base, LF and CF. “I saw him play 4 positions in 5 games and he was above average to plus in all of them….it’s very unique to find someone who can play all these positions at the level he can. I can’t remember someone with that type of versatility at his age.” He also has power (.173 IsoP) and base stealing skills (23 SB in 26 attempts) which make him a better prospect than Jimenez in my opinion. Mini-Kiké?
I think the only danger in leaving him unprotected is if a tanking team sees enough upside in him to stash him and then send him back to AA in 2022. Even then, if you're that team, you have to consider a) if having him spend his entire age-21 season with very little playing time will stunt his development and ii) how many other unprotected guys there are around the league that it would make more sense picking.
One thing that will probably go into the decision for Chaim to protect or not is whether other teams asked about Rafaela at (or since) the trade deadline.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 27, 2021 20:38:22 GMT -5
I think we can't look at this like a normal Rule 5 year though. It seemed like the Red Sox had a lot of guys to protect, then that pair of Longenhagen articles made clear they actually aren't even in the top 8 or so teams in Rule 5 logjams. Just today a Mets guy I follow was posting about how they're going to need to protect minor leaguers for the first time in a long time.
Unless teams are more willing to make Rule 5 selections (possible!), there are going to be guys who go unpicked this year that might've been popped in a normal season. Looking at a guy like Rafaela who had a .305 OBP in Low-A, I'm not sure he's going to be at the top of a Rule 5 prep list, despite his defense. Even if a team really likes the defense, it doesn't strike me that even if he were to get popped, the team would think it worth setting his development back a year by stashing him in the majors before returning him to, what, Double-A at best in 2023? Compare with, say, Fitzgerald, who may not quite be MLB-ready but you'd feel better about him going to Triple-A in 2023 and being in the Araúz role or something. Rafaela's probably the better prospect, but that doesn't make him the more likely Rule 5 pick necessarily.
That reasoning, by the way, is why I'm kind of wavering a smidge in my thought that Jimenez is a no-doubt protect. I do think he gets protected, but while it would surprise me if the team were to survey the landscape and think they could take a chance on leaving him unprotected, I wouldn't think it unconscionably dumb either.
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Post by thegawd on Nov 9, 2021 7:27:41 GMT -5
Well, as Ian then said, he doesn't have the bat-to-ball ability that Jimenez does. The numbers tell a different story though Jimenez K% 21.1% Rafaela K% 18.4%
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 9, 2021 8:13:10 GMT -5
Guys Like Chris believe in hyped players, and will die looking deep into numbers, baseball is about momentum, and Rafaela is the Guy, how many times he was clutch for salem this year and never gets credit for it, if you wanna look at numbers chris look at his RBI’s Run scored stolen Bases when home runs how the guy led the league in triples how the guy leg out extra bases on base hits he didn’t hit for AVG overall but he had a 280 avg Ball hit in play, and lets not even talk about his defense plays above average at all these positions a kid that didn’t play outfield in 5+ years plays it again and give you that kind of performance you need to start respecting the Guy and stop comparing him to others and BTW nobody has a better baseball IQ than him in the entire Red Sox minors. "Hello, run on sentence police? Yeah, this post right here." ☝
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 9, 2021 8:17:56 GMT -5
Guys Like Chris believe in hyped players, and will die looking deep into numbers, baseball is about momentum, and Rafaela is the Guy, how many times he was clutch for salem this year and never gets credit for it, if you wanna look at numbers chris look at his RBI’s Run scored stolen Bases when home runs how the guy led the league in triples how the guy leg out extra bases on base hits he didn’t hit for AVG overall but he had a 280 avg Ball hit in play, and lets not even talk about his defense plays above average at all these positions a kid that didn’t play outfield in 5+ years plays it again and give you that kind of performance you need to start respecting the Guy and stop comparing him to others and BTW nobody has a better baseball IQ than him in the entire Red Sox minors. "Hello, run on sentence police? Yeah, this post right here." ☝ LOL....
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
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Post by radiohix on Apr 16, 2022 18:55:53 GMT -5
Bumping this. Kid has a riffle
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
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Post by radiohix on Apr 16, 2022 21:08:31 GMT -5
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 16, 2022 23:05:20 GMT -5
The fun fact that came to my attention recently is that Dennis Neuman is credited as his signing scout. Very nice.
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Post by huskies15 on Apr 17, 2022 10:05:45 GMT -5
SSS but starting to look more and more like Rafaela is a top 10 guy in the system (maybe higher?). Reviews of his defense are intoxicating and the start with the bat is unreal.
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Post by ramireja on Apr 17, 2022 12:19:03 GMT -5
SSS but starting to look more and more like Rafaela is a top 10 guy in the system (maybe higher?). Reviews of his defense are intoxicating and the start with the bat is unreal. Its going to be interesting for prospect rankers if he even kind of keeps this up (thinking like a 20/20 season with a good amount of 2Bs and 3Bs added in there). He'll challenge biases against players < 5'10". Perhaps even moreso, rather than being a standout offensive performer that rankings tend to favor, he's the case of someone who provides overall value (offense, defense, baserunning) which is probably a bit underrated both in terms of prospect rankings and even in the majors. I'm thinking of guys like Trevor Story whose WAR ranks among the best SS due to his average to slightly above average bat, but added defense and baserunning value. These guys won't get paid as much as the elite offensive SS types (like Bogaerts), but will be right with those guys in the WAR leaderboards. If you're valuing the whole package, and Rafaela's bat starts to project to something close to average, then there's a strong case for an aggressive ranking in the system for sure.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 17, 2022 20:13:46 GMT -5
I was listening to this week’s podcast and Ian said that he saw him playing plus SS, 3rd Base, LF and CF. “I saw him play 4 positions in 5 games and he was above average to plus in all of them….it’s very unique to find someone who can play all these positions at the level he can. I can’t remember someone with that type of versatility at his age.” He also has power (.173 IsoP) and base stealing skills (23 SB in 26 attempts) which make him a better prospect than Jimenez in my opinion. I remember when he kinda burst on the scene in the DSL and had a number of us raising eyebrows. Tough to project a guy who's 5'8" and maybe 160 lbs hitting well in MLB, but I remember a low-A breakout 20-y/o who had a few of us raising eyebrows too. Gruesomely unfair comp but guys like that, or Altuve or Jose Ramirez do pop up from time to time, and it's nice to dream. I will say, Rafaela has a certain "second-nature" feel to him that reminds me of breakout Mookie. Otherworldly neural network or something to that effect. Seems like he's at least a good shot to be Brockstar 2.0. It's especially encouraging that this power burst is in high-A (although I'd be even more impressed if it were Salem high-A) at just age 21. FWIW I like Jimenez a lot too, and I think he's maybe too good a hitter for his own good, contact-wise. If he were selectively rather than globally aggressive, I think he'd be showing more power just by virtue of better-quality contact (and forcing pitchers into hitters' counts). He's got the build and twitch to approach 55-60 raw and 50+ game, if he just used more hips/legs and didn't rely so much on quick hands. But he's also new enough at it that there's plenty of room for growth.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 17, 2022 20:17:13 GMT -5
SSS but starting to look more and more like Rafaela is a top 10 guy in the system (maybe higher?). Reviews of his defense are intoxicating and the start with the bat is unreal. Remarkably well-put.
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