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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 14:03:58 GMT -5
Outside of a couple of posters, everyone discussing Rafaela seems to have a similar opinion, but there is a growing number of posters misrepresenting what others are saying which is causing a form of tribalism. Can we all agree on the below? - Rafaela is an exciting prospect who has been very successful both offensively and defensively over the past two years. - Rafaela has a high chase rate which leads to more weak contact and strikeouts than would be expected for a player with his offensive skill set. There are concerns that when he reaches the majors this flaw will be further exploited and lead to him struggling. - If Rafaela can manage a ~90 wRC+ he should become a valuable MLB player due to his defense and baserunning. If his defense is as good as people suggest I'd argue he could be an average or better MLB player with an 80 wRC+ JBJ, 2017-2019: wRC+ - 89, 90, 89 WAR (FG) - 2.4, 3.4, 1.9 I think that is certainly a fair statement.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 28, 2023 14:05:29 GMT -5
I guess the response to that is that not every tool is created equal. He does have 3 plus tools, as you mention. We have his hit tool as potential fringe-average and power as potential average. For my money, I'd almost count a plus hit tool as being worth twice a plus run or field tool. Are there other guys with 3 potential plus tools? Mayer (hit/field/arm/maybe power in a 90th percentile outcome). Bleis potentially (power/run/field/arm). That is probably it at this point. Way too early to say with confidence but Zanatello potentially a 3+ tool guy?
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 28, 2023 14:07:52 GMT -5
If his defense is as good as people suggest I'd argue he could be an average or better MLB player with an 80 wRC+ JBJ, 2017-2019: wRC+ - 89, 90, 89 WAR (FG) - 2.4, 3.4, 1.9 I think that is certainly a fair statement. JBJ came to mind and the specific examples I was looking at were Ezequial Tovar and Joey Wiemer, who have 77 and 82 respective wRC+s this year and are both on pace for ~2 WAR.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 14:10:00 GMT -5
JBJ, 2017-2019: wRC+ - 89, 90, 89 WAR (FG) - 2.4, 3.4, 1.9 I think that is certainly a fair statement. JBJ came to mind and the specific examples I was looking at were Ezequial Tovar and Joey Wiemer, who have 77 and 82 respective wRC+s this year and are both on pace for ~2 WAR. Tovar is a cleaner comp in some ways for sure, mainly because IIRC his offensive question marks are similar to Rafaela’s in that he’s a free swinger. JBJ a much different offensive toolbox but similar position. Both good pulls on your end.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 28, 2023 15:10:03 GMT -5
I guess the response to that is that not every tool is created equal. He does have 3 plus tools, as you mention. We have his hit tool as potential fringe-average and power as potential average. For my money, I'd almost count a plus hit tool as being worth twice a plus run or field tool. Are there other guys with 3 potential plus tools? Mayer (hit/field/arm/maybe power in a 90th percentile outcome). Bleis potentially (power/run/field/arm). That is probably it at this point. Blaze power/arm/field (at first)? Hard no. He's got a 50 or 55 arm, but he's a below-average defender at best.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 28, 2023 15:12:49 GMT -5
I guess the response to that is that not every tool is created equal. He does have 3 plus tools, as you mention. We have his hit tool as potential fringe-average and power as potential average. For my money, I'd almost count a plus hit tool as being worth twice a plus run or field tool. Are there other guys with 3 potential plus tools? Mayer (hit/field/arm/maybe power in a 90th percentile outcome). Bleis potentially (power/run/field/arm). That is probably it at this point. Way too early to say with confidence but Zanatello potentially a 3+ tool guy? Guess I wasn't thinking of the new guys because we haven't seen them. Too early for me, yeah.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 15:13:23 GMT -5
Blaze power/arm/field (at first)? Hard no. He's got a 50 or 55 arm, but he's a below-average defender at best. Wasn't Ian just super complimentary of his defense at first in the last pod? Maybe I'm thinking of someone else.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Jul 28, 2023 16:42:48 GMT -5
Again y'all, the whiff rate/strikeouts aren't the problem. The problem he needs to limit is bad contact on bad pitches, because he's able to put the bat on them but you can't do as much with a pitch 6 inches out of the zone as one in your wheelhouse, right? He's apparently done a great job of that in AAA so far. I really do apologize for continuing to beat this dead horse, but I just do not understand why people are so set on fighting about whether it's the walks OR the strikeouts OR the quality of contact that's the (potential) problem. They all stem from the same issue: he swings at too many bad pitches. If he swings at fewer bad pitches he will produce better contact, and he will also strike out less and walk more.
I guess the point is that he shouldn't be actively trying to strike out less or to walk more but should instead think about taking bad pitches as a way to get a better pitch to hit later in the at bat? That distinction might make a difference if we're just talking about what mindset he should have, but I still think in practice that's still going to affect his strikeouts and walks as much as quality of contact.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 28, 2023 17:11:26 GMT -5
For me, the back and forth can be summarized as an argument about his worth in the majors. Having watched a bit of his play - at both centerfielder and a shortstop - I'm left speechless by how good he is. That video of the burst to home after the bad catcher's throw also speaks volumes about his instincts. In a split-second he made his move from third when he saw the lazy throw, instantly factoring that into the decision. That sort of mental processing is not something that can easily be taught.
I think it's a matter of whether he's good for 1.5-2 wins as a major league player, or 4-5. At the very least he's good for the former I believe. His defense and base-running alone are just that good. The latter total or something close to it will all depend on how he adapts to the pitching. We need to be honest here: AAA to MLB is a huge leap, a chasm that's been growing over the last few years.
The Sox will probably take all that into consideration. But if they get anywhere near the playoffs, I'm convinced they'll bring him up. Defense and base-running are too valuable when it's showtime.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 28, 2023 17:39:59 GMT -5
Thank you @oregon_Norm I think you nailed it with Rafaela, his skills are close to Mookie level except for the bat, but that's still a really valuable player even if he is a slightly below average hitter.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 28, 2023 17:43:37 GMT -5
He can put up an 80 wrc+ and still be a good big leaguer, that’s what makes him exciting imo
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Post by bentossaurus on Jul 28, 2023 18:56:32 GMT -5
For me, the back and forth can be summarized as an argument about his worth in the majors. Having watched a bit of his play - at both centerfielder and a shortstop - I'm left speechless by how good he is. That video of the burst to home after the bad catcher's throw also speaks volumes about his instincts. In a split-second he made his move from third when he saw the lazy throw, instantly factoring that into the decision. That sort of mental processing is not something that can easily be taught. I think it's a matter of whether he's good for 1.5-2 wins as a major league player, or 4-5. At the very least he's good for the former I believe. His defense and base-running alone are just that good. The latter total or something close to it will all depend on how he adapts to the pitching. We need to be honest here: AAA to MLB is a huge leap, a chasm that's been growing over the last few years. The Sox will probably take all that into consideration. But if they get anywhere near the playoffs, I'm convinced they'll bring him up. Defense and base-running are too valuable when it's showtime. That's the debate in the last few pages, but think it all started as a argument of promote to MLB or leave him to work on his plate discipline at AAA. Find it absurd I have to lead off a post about a Red Sox prospect on a sox prospects board with a I WANT HIM TO SUCCEED, but that's where we got to. The good: He's an 80 CF and 60 SS defender, which coupled with plus speed raised his floor tremendously and has people salivating on what it can be. Sneaky power for his size, and gets his bat to a lot of pitches. The bad: Terrible plate discipline and chase rate. He's making contact enough to not strike out too much, but he's certainly getting worse results than if chased less. The skinny: Right now he's holding his outcome numbers (K%, BB%, IsoP) in AAA reasonably well despite chasing a lot of pitches outside the zone. If I though he could reproduce his current line at MLB I'd be the first (well, seeing some of the more vocal posters, one of the first) to be screaming for him to be promoted. Thing is, MLB pitchers have better command and better quality of pitches. They'll make him respectively chase even more, and make less contact on these. That's why people were putting the brakes on calls for a promotion, he'd likely get exposed. Let Rafaela hone that plate discipline further in AAA, and when he's ready unleash him in MLB. We all want the same, we just have different views on his readiness and current ability to translate his SKILLS to MLB.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Jul 28, 2023 19:32:34 GMT -5
Having watched a bit of his play - at both centerfielder and a shortstop - I'm left speechless by how good he is. How would you say he compares to JBJ in CF? Obviously they will have their individual differences, but hypothetically, who would you rather have in CF? (Strictly defensively)
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Jul 28, 2023 19:52:25 GMT -5
Having watched a bit of his play - at both centerfielder and a shortstop - I'm left speechless by how good he is. How would you say he compares to JBJ in CF? Obviously they will have their individual differences, but hypothetically, who would you rather have in CF? (Strictly defensively) my two cents, Rafeala has elite wheels and comparable instincts to JBJ. They are also two totally different hitters. CR has the potential to hit 275+ even with his chase profile just because his contact profile. JBJ would see more pitches but had noticable holes in his swing. JBJ was an elite defender whose instincts were unparalleled and allowed him to compensate for his non elite speed. tbh I am excited to see Rafeala and Duran in a lineup. When was the last time the Sox had two impact runners who also had some pop? I thought Jimenez would give them that kind of pressure but he fizzed out, Ceddane has been as advertised since his promotion to AAA.
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Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2023 20:28:31 GMT -5
To take it in another direction, a guy who can be a plus defender at both CF and SS (and likely also at LF/RF/2B, and maybe 3B) is super duper valuable. It could save you a roster spot that would otherwise go to a Chang/Reyes-type and give you the option to roster a more specialized player (maybe another platoon type like a Valdez or Abreu, or a designated pinch-runner like a Hamilton, or a bat-only guy like a Dalbec or Kavadas). As we've come to learn, not even Kiké could adequately cover the two most challenging (non-C) defensive positions at an above-average level and guys who can are super rare. Not sure how to measure that in WAR but it shouldn't be forgotten.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 28, 2023 20:55:01 GMT -5
To take it in another direction, a guy who can be a plus defender at both CF and SS (and likely also at LF/RF/2B, and maybe 3B) is super duper valuable. It could save you a roster spot that would otherwise go to a Chang/Reyes-type and give you the option to roster a more specialized player (maybe another platoon type like a Valdez or Abreu, or a designated pinch-runner like a Hamilton, or a bat-only guy like a Dalbec or Kavadas). As we've come to learn, not even Kiké could adequately cover the two most challenging (non-C) defensive positions at an above-average level and guys who can are super rare. Not sure how to measure that in WAR but it shouldn't be forgotten. Yeah I always feel like utility guys have a value that WAR doesn’t capture because they play the position most needed by the team at a given moment in time. So WAR punishes say Brock Holt because he played first one night, but he played first not because he can’t play shortstop but because the team needed a first baseman. That said (and you didn’t do this, just speaking generally) I think sometimes people slightly overvalue Rafaela being able to play both CF and SS because obviously he can’t do both at the same time. He gives you a plus defender at one premium position, not two.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 28, 2023 23:30:04 GMT -5
Having watched a bit of his play - at both centerfielder and a shortstop - I'm left speechless by how good he is. How would you say he compares to JBJ in CF? Obviously they will have their individual differences, but hypothetically, who would you rather have in CF? (Strictly defensively) Well JBJ had the best anticipation I've seen in an outfielder. He'd be seemingly be far away from the track of a batted ball yet I'd realize he was now under what I thought was unreachable for him. Not the fastest but just great positioning - able to figure exactly where he should be.
Rafaela has that latter trait, but he's also a superior athlete with very good speed and, also like Bradley, a cannon up his sleeve. I'd have to see much more of him to really get a feel for the difference, but that's my initial take.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 29, 2023 12:07:00 GMT -5
Yeah I always feel like utility guys have a value that WAR doesn’t capture because they play the position most needed by the team at a given moment in time. So WAR punishes say Brock Holt because he played first one night, but he played first not because he can’t play shortstop but because the team needed a first baseman. That said (and you didn’t do this, just speaking generally) I think sometimes people slightly overvalue Rafaela being able to play both CF and SS because obviously he can’t do both at the same time. He gives you a plus defender at one premium position, not two. This is a flaw in WAR that has existed since the beginning. If Darin Erstad (back in the day) plays a full season at 1B, did he suddenly become 1.5 fWAR worse as a player? Arroyo's time in the outfield is the most recent major Sox example given that he lost ~0.6 fWAR from only 108 innings (as he was also quite bad). Imagine if they had Rafaela to fill in instead - his WAR would diminish due to the positional adjustment but his great defense would increase team WAR and presumably real-world wins.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 29, 2023 12:11:11 GMT -5
Unfortunately Rafaela ended his hitting streak yesterday at 14 games.
Also, his K% in AAA has snuck up over 25% with 4 strikeouts in his last two games - something to keep an eye on.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 31, 2023 16:55:37 GMT -5
I was scrolling the active WAR leaders and one name stuck out like a sore thumb: Kevin Kiermaier. He's 28th with 34.8 career WAR and a 99 OPS+. No clue how he compares to Rafaela at the plate or defensively, but that's a helluva outcome. Only two years below 2 WAR: last year when he had 220 ABs and 2020. If Rafaela can turn into 80% of Kiermaier...
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Post by terriblehondo on Jul 31, 2023 17:53:23 GMT -5
Kiermaier ranks defensively with greats like Paul Blair and Andrew Jones from an article I read recently. If Rafaela can throw leather like those guys sign me up. As a kid I thought Blair was the best. When Andrew came along I thought he was the best of that era.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 31, 2023 21:44:06 GMT -5
I was scrolling the active WAR leaders and one name stuck out like a sore thumb: Kevin Kiermaier. He's 28th with 34.8 career WAR and a 99 OPS+. No clue how he compares to Rafaela at the plate or defensively, but that's a helluva outcome. Only two years below 2 WAR: last year when he had 220 ABs and 2020. If Rafaela can turn into 80% of Kiermaier... " There’s such a high floor here with the defense and power; Kevin Kiermaier has played 11 years and been worth over 30 rWAR with a career .310 OBP because of his defense and has no more power than Rafaela does. If the Curaçao native can focus on swinging at strikes, that kind of career is within reach." Keith Law, in rating him the #48 prospect in baseball.
He also pointed out his terrible plate discipline in AAA (at the time, 24.7% SO, 1.4 BB) while ignoring his .294 / .343 / .576 line in 73 PA.
Since then he's 21.1%, 5.3%, and has slashed .361 / .395 / .667 in 36 PA.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 1, 2023 8:01:54 GMT -5
I was scrolling the active WAR leaders and one name stuck out like a sore thumb: Kevin Kiermaier. He's 28th with 34.8 career WAR and a 99 OPS+. No clue how he compares to Rafaela at the plate or defensively, but that's a helluva outcome. Only two years below 2 WAR: last year when he had 220 ABs and 2020. If Rafaela can turn into 80% of Kiermaier... " There’s such a high floor here with the defense and power; Kevin Kiermaier has played 11 years and been worth over 30 rWAR with a career .310 OBP because of his defense and has no more power than Rafaela does. If the Curaçao native can focus on swinging at strikes, that kind of career is within reach." Keith Law, in rating him the #48 prospect in baseball. He also pointed out his terrible plate discipline in AAA (at the time, 24.7% SO, 1.4 BB) while ignoring his .294 / .343 / .576 line in 73 PA. Since then he's 21.1%, 5.3%, and has slashed .361 / .395 / .667 in 36 PA.
He also didn't mention that Rafaela is faster than Kiermaier.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Aug 1, 2023 10:03:49 GMT -5
" There’s such a high floor here with the defense and power; Kevin Kiermaier has played 11 years and been worth over 30 rWAR with a career .310 OBP because of his defense and has no more power than Rafaela does. If the Curaçao native can focus on swinging at strikes, that kind of career is within reach." Keith Law, in rating him the #48 prospect in baseball. He also pointed out his terrible plate discipline in AAA (at the time, 24.7% SO, 1.4 BB) while ignoring his .294 / .343 / .576 line in 73 PA. Since then he's 21.1%, 5.3%, and has slashed .361 / .395 / .667 in 36 PA.
He also didn't mention that Rafaela is faster than Kiermaier. Do you have data to back that up? Kiermaier is still in the 91st percentile in sprint speed as a 33-year-old. Pretty tough bar to clear.
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Post by patford on Aug 1, 2023 10:08:33 GMT -5
Thrilled to see Rafaela still with the team. CF defense is so valuable it can't be overstated. A great SS takes away singles and turns them into outs. A great CF takes away singles, doubles, triples and home runs. Yes there are concerns about his approach at the plate but until we see him fail to hit I think moving him runs a huge risk of selling low.
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