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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 27, 2023 21:59:41 GMT -5
Ray, I'm curious, why do you take this stuff so personally sometimes? You did the same thing with Houck. Nobody is attacking the kid personally or wishing him to fail here. The point has never been "Rafaela is going to fail." The point is "his very high chase rate is likely going to limit his ceiling as he moves up." If we're talking about what the Red Sox did, what they did is recognize this problem and try really, really hard to get him to work on it to start the year. When that very clearly was not working (he was clearly often taking pitches just to take them rather than actually tracking and work to improve his aggressiveness, and everything else was going souty), they realized that to succeed, he may just need to be that aggressive. I don't think it was a realization that it didn't matter. It was a realization that it wasn't going to take and was just going to make him worse, so it was pointless, so they just needed to let him go to get the best version of Rafaela, for now at least. He's an exciting player. I like him a lot! Others here do too who you seem to be directing your ire towards. I can like him and think he's a good prospect while also pointing out that the chase rate scares me and discuss with others what that might mean without it meaning that I hate him personally and want him to fail, just like how pointing out how Houck's trouble with LHB and going through lineups multiple times were going to be potential issues with him remaining a starter (lo and behold...) didn't mean I WANTED that. It's a discussion forum, man. Essentially what cdj just said just before your post. I'm pretty sure Rafaela reads this stuff, he just recently asked if AAA pitching is better than AA pitching in his twitter account. I also think that people in general, ignore skills, which affect the likelihood of which resulting error band actually happens. With Rafaela it's the combo of a fast bat and off the charts hand eye coordination. With Houck it was tunelling and it appears he's there now.
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Post by sittingstill on Jul 27, 2023 22:33:05 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure Rafaela reads this stuff, he just recently asked if AAA pitching is better than AA pitching in his twitter account. I think you're referring to his brother. I think players' families read this stuff far more often than players themselves do.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 27, 2023 22:51:32 GMT -5
The profile says baseball player. In real life, he's just a kid and I hope he listens to coaches rather than a bunch of posters.
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Post by Don Caballero on Jul 27, 2023 23:07:34 GMT -5
Wait, there's a chance prospects read the stuff we post here? BLAZE JORDAN, YOU'RE MY FAVORITE PROSPECT! GO BE LEGENDARY!
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jul 28, 2023 1:12:52 GMT -5
Rafaela's performance in AAA so far still is small enough sample size that it could just be a month-long hot streak rather than a true indicator of how his approach will play at the highest levels. Let's see what happens in the next month, but if he maintains anything close to his current level of performance (minus the curious drop-off in steals), then it may be that he takes "his game" to the majors with only one level left to show that it won't play. It will be interesting to see what the franchise does with him in September.
Roman Anthony's stat line at Greenville compared to Salem screams a guy who tasted early power success at the new level and may be selling out a bit to try to continue building on it?
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 28, 2023 1:34:35 GMT -5
I feel like Rafaela will improve his chase rate when he’s around MLB professional hitters. A bunch of guys started being more selective when JD came around then Kyle. I think it would be good for him to be around guys like Turner and Verdugo. Understand what they look for. I hope he gets the chance.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,126
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Post by jimoh on Jul 28, 2023 5:05:33 GMT -5
I'm referring to the group that constantly points to relatively meaningless numbers like strike zone management while ignoring his .332 IsoP. Bobby Dalbec's IsoP is .338, in three times as many PA. Rafaela's IsoP for the whole year is .192. "relatively meaningless numbers like strike zone management" is a fun phrase.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 28, 2023 8:02:10 GMT -5
Rafaela's performance in AAA so far still is small enough sample size that it could just be a month-long hot streak rather than a true indicator of how his approach will play at the highest levels. Let's see what happens in the next month, but if he maintains anything close to his current level of performance (minus the curious drop-off in steals), then it may be that he takes "his game" to the majors with only one level left to show that it won't play. It will be interesting to see what the franchise does with him in September. Roman Anthony's stat line at Greenville compared to Salem screams a guy who tasted early power success at the new level and may be selling out a bit to try to continue building on it? I'd love to see him in September but realistically, if they don't trade Duval, a September callup seems unlikely.
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Post by okin15 on Jul 28, 2023 8:35:37 GMT -5
Jesus, is that the new twitter logo, trash It's called X.com now thank you very much... I don't get it.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 28, 2023 9:03:43 GMT -5
Jesus, is that the new twitter logo, trash It's called X.com now thank you very much... I don't get it. Maybe he's a fan of the band. (actually, I read that way back when he started, he wanted to call his payment app X and turn it into an "everything app." It became PayPal, he became rich, and since then he's been looking to rekindle the "everything app" idea. The tech finally caught up with the idea, so here we are).
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,584
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Post by radiohix on Jul 28, 2023 9:22:54 GMT -5
He runs a 14.2% whiff% in AAA, the MLB avg is 11.1%, if he lowers these numbers down, and I think he will, and lower that K% to 17-18% range, he’ll be ready for the show, walks or no walks.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 28, 2023 9:30:28 GMT -5
Again y'all, the whiff rate/strikeouts aren't the problem. The problem he needs to limit is bad contact on bad pitches, because he's able to put the bat on them but you can't do as much with a pitch 6 inches out of the zone as one in your wheelhouse, right? He's apparently done a great job of that in AAA so far.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 28, 2023 9:47:23 GMT -5
Again y'all, the whiff rate/strikeouts aren't the problem. The problem he needs to limit is bad contact on bad pitches, because he's able to put the bat on them but you can't do as much with a pitch 6 inches out of the zone as one in your wheelhouse, right? He's apparently done a great job of that in AAA so far. Hmmmm, not necessarily. The alternative to that would be improving contact on bad pitches. A more aggressive approach but also a distinct possibility in this case. Not a comp but as an illustration think Vlad Sr.
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Post by e on Jul 28, 2023 10:04:09 GMT -5
Again y'all, the whiff rate/strikeouts aren't the problem. The problem he needs to limit is bad contact on bad pitches, because he's able to put the bat on them but you can't do as much with a pitch 6 inches out of the zone as one in your wheelhouse, right? He's apparently done a great job of that in AAA so far. Hmmmm, not necessarily. The alternative to that would be improving contact on bad pitches. A more aggressive approach but also a distinct possibility in this case. Not a comp but as an illustration think Vlad Sr. I'm assuming you mean improving quality of contact, and I don't think Rafaela should try to mimic Vladimir Guerrero Sr., a player who was 6'3" and over 230lbs. Something interesting a noticed when looking at Rafaela's AAA data. Found all this from Prospect Live: www.prospectslive.com/2023-aaa-statcast-dataIZ-Contact: 89% OZ-Swing(Chase): 39.6% Whiff: 26.9% Hard-Hit: 44% Zone contact looks great, along with a healthy hard-hit percentage. He's chasing a ton(per usual) and the whiff% is decently below average. I think what's happening is instead of making weak contact on pitches off the plate like he use to, he's just swinging through them. Which may be great thing for him. Imagine a pitcher throws an 0-0 slider off the plate and Rafaela swings. If he makes contact on it, it is most likely weak contact and he's out. If he swings and misses, its only 0-1 and he still has the rest of the at-bat to drive the ball and get on base. I have no idea if this is something that will stick though, could just be a small sample size situation. Which is why I'd still be hesitant to project Rafaela as a consistent above average hitter. Really pulling for him though and is one of my favorite prospects in the system.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 10:09:54 GMT -5
Hmmmm, not necessarily. The alternative to that would be improving contact on bad pitches. A more aggressive approach but also a distinct possibility in this case. Not a comp but as an illustration think Vlad Sr. I'm assuming you mean improving quality of contact, and I don't think Rafaela should try to mimic Vladimir Guerrero Sr., a player who was 6'3" and over 230lbs. Something interesting a noticed when looking at Rafaela's AAA data. Found all this from Prospect Live: www.prospectslive.com/2023-aaa-statcast-dataIZ-Contact: 89% OZ-Swing(Chase): 39.6% Whiff: 26.9% Hard-Hit: 44% Zone contact looks great, along with a healthy hard-hit percentage. He's chasing a ton(per usual) and the whiff% is decently below average. I think what's happening is instead of making weak contact on pitches off the plate like he use to, he's just swinging through them. Which may be great thing for him. Imagine a pitcher throws an 0-0 slider off the plate and Rafaela swings. If he makes contact on it, it is most likely weak contact and he's out. If he swings and misses, its only 0-1 and he still has the rest of the at-bat to drive the ball and get on base. I have no idea if this is something that will stick though, could just be a small sample size situation. Which is why I'd still be hesitant to project Rafaela as a consistent above average hitter. Really pulling for him though and is one of my favorite prospects in the system. Yeah consider me HIGHLY skeptical that a coach would look at a guy with a chase problem and say "oh just make better contact on those pitches" as opposed to trying to get him to simply stop swinging at them lol Vlad was amazing but shouldn't be used as any kind of precedent for how to hit
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 28, 2023 10:13:18 GMT -5
6.8% walk rate 25.3% K rate .191 IsoP Would we be happy with this?
Jarren Duran with Boston in 2023
ETA: There was a smaller version of Vlad Sr who did ok with outside the zone hitting, Yogi something or other - not a comp, just an observation. Main point is that here is a guy (Rafaela) who plays above average to excellent D at TWO premium positions, who exhibits great running instincts and has great contact skills. I understand that he has what could become serious flaws at the MLB level that might limit him to a super defensive sub, what I don't understand the willingness, almost it seems eagerness, of some to include him in a trade package for anything less than an ace with several years of control left rather than letting him prove himself.
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Post by ephus on Jul 28, 2023 10:17:34 GMT -5
Again y'all, the whiff rate/strikeouts aren't the problem. The problem he needs to limit is bad contact on bad pitches, because he's able to put the bat on them but you can't do as much with a pitch 6 inches out of the zone as one in your wheelhouse, right? He's apparently done a great job of that in AAA so far. Hmmmm, not necessarily. The alternative to that would be improving contact on bad pitches. A more aggressive approach but also a distinct possibility in this case. Not a comp but as an illustration think Vlad Sr. I see your Vlad Sr. and add a Juan Uribe.
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Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2023 10:17:45 GMT -5
Let's stay on topic please.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 28, 2023 10:44:33 GMT -5
I guess I'll pull out the "if you need to say 'well he could be Vlad Guerrero/Peak Nomar', that's not good" version of the counter to "Jamie Moyer was successful without velocity".
But yeah, again, point is can he succeed that way. Maybe he can! And it's not like it's a situation where he doesn't add value in other ways either.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 28, 2023 11:29:20 GMT -5
Again y'all, the whiff rate/strikeouts aren't the problem. The problem he needs to limit is bad contact on bad pitches, because he's able to put the bat on them but you can't do as much with a pitch 6 inches out of the zone as one in your wheelhouse, right? He's apparently done a great job of that in AAA so far. Exactly. Makes me think back to Ted Williams and his multicolored baseballs in the strike zone with each ball showing batting averages that notate hot and cold zones, etc. Basically saying if you swing at pitches in bad areas your average will reflect it, so if Rafaela continues to swing at garbage pitches he will get himself out with weak contact, which violates the number 1 rule of hitting....get a good ball to hit. Rafaela's ability to make contact could easily work against him. Sounds like if this kid could zero in on good pitches and be more discerning with the bad ones, he could put his contact skills to great use, but he's hardly the first guy anybody has ever said that about.
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Post by remmartin34 on Jul 28, 2023 11:56:46 GMT -5
Ceddanne Rafaela is a really dynamic prospect. I like him a lot. I personally haven't looked deep into his advanced metrics on his IsoP/chase/whiff/hard contact rates, in particular. On the aggregate, those metrics obviously are very solid predictors of what players will do when they reach the majors. However, there are outliers, and I think he may be one of them. Just a completely gut feeling, nothing more. Not here to pretend I know him back and forth statistically.
But I do know a few things, based on watching him and seeing what he does have, as a FLOOR. He has a minimum of three "old school" MLB caliber tools (Fielding/Throwing/Speed) and I'd say he's proven enough of the course of a large sample to say that he's at least got half a tool in terms of hitting for average (metrics aside) and half a tool in terms of hitting for power (metrics aside). Not sure what other players besides him and Mayer that are Double A or higher who have 3.5-4+ tools.. Are there any?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 28, 2023 12:58:19 GMT -5
Outside of a couple of posters, everyone discussing Rafaela seems to have a similar opinion, but there is a growing number of posters misrepresenting what others are saying which is causing a form of tribalism.
Can we all agree on the below? - Rafaela is an exciting prospect who has been very successful both offensively and defensively over the past two years. - Rafaela has a high chase rate which leads to more weak contact and strikeouts than would be expected for a player with his offensive skill set. There are concerns that when he reaches the majors this flaw will be further exploited and lead to him struggling. - If Rafaela can manage a ~90 wRC+ he should become a valuable MLB player due to his defense and baserunning.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 28, 2023 13:58:21 GMT -5
I guess the response to that is that not every tool is created equal. He does have 3 plus tools, as you mention. We have his hit tool as potential fringe-average and power as potential average. For my money, I'd almost count a plus hit tool as being worth twice a plus run or field tool.
Are there other guys with 3 potential plus tools? Mayer (hit/field/arm/maybe power in a 90th percentile outcome). Bleis potentially (power/run/field/arm). That is probably it at this point.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 28, 2023 14:00:46 GMT -5
Outside of a couple of posters, everyone discussing Rafaela seems to have a similar opinion, but there is a growing number of posters misrepresenting what others are saying which is causing a form of tribalism. Can we all agree on the below? - Rafaela is an exciting prospect who has been very successful both offensively and defensively over the past two years. - Rafaela has a high chase rate which leads to more weak contact and strikeouts than would be expected for a player with his offensive skill set. There are concerns that when he reaches the majors this flaw will be further exploited and lead to him struggling. - If Rafaela can manage a ~90 wRC+ he should become a valuable MLB player due to his defense and baserunning. If his defense is as good as people suggest I'd argue he could be an average or better MLB player with an 80 wRC+
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 28, 2023 14:01:17 GMT -5
I guess the response to that is that not every tool is created equal. He does have 3 plus tools, as you mention. We have his hit tool as potential fringe-average and power as potential average. For my money, I'd almost count a plus hit tool as being worth twice a plus run or field tool. Are there other guys with 3 potential plus tools? Mayer (hit/field/arm/maybe power in a 90th percentile outcome). Bleis potentially (power/run/field/arm). That is probably it at this point. Blaze power/arm/field (at first)?
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