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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 27, 2023 11:28:45 GMT -5
2023 MLB average/2023 Rafaela:
BB%: 8.6%/4.4% K%: 22.7%/21.3% ISO: .164/.194
Let's remember that any talk of Rafaela having a strikeout issue, or lacking power are a projection and not the current reality. We should be excited about this guy, even if he ends up as a below average bat. The prolonged efforts by a minority to diminish his success is puzzling.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 27, 2023 11:31:53 GMT -5
2023 MLB average/2023 Rafaela:BB%: 8.6%/4.4% K%: 22.7%/21.3% ISO: .164/.194 Let's remember that any talk of Rafaela having a strikeout issue, or lacking power are a projection and not the current reality. We should be excited about this guy, even if he ends up as a below average bat. The prolonged efforts by a minority to diminish his success is puzzling. I think you're very drastically misunderstanding the argument you're opposing here. No one is saying not to be excited about him or attempting to diminish his success, merely trying to provide a dose of reality to what has become a pretty unrealistic expectation for his bat by some here. There's a whole lot of room between blind optimism and trying to diminish the guy that you're skipping over.
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Post by e on Jul 27, 2023 12:00:54 GMT -5
2023 MLB average/2023 Rafaela:BB%: 8.6%/4.4% K%: 22.7%/21.3% ISO: .164/.194 Let's remember that any talk of Rafaela having a strikeout issue, or lacking power are a projection and not the current reality. We should be excited about this guy, even if he ends up as a below average bat. The prolonged efforts by a minority to diminish his success is puzzling. I think you're very drastically misunderstanding the argument you're opposing here. No one is saying not to be excited about him or attempting to diminish his success, merely trying to provide a dose of reality to what has become a pretty unrealistic expectation for his bat by some here. There's a whole lot of room between blind optimism and trying to diminish the guy that you're skipping over. Completely agree with this. I'm really excited about Rafaela because of his 80 grade defense. It gives him a pretty solid floor of at least a useable Major League player, and he's produced offensively the past two years. If this type of production carries over to the majors, he's an all star player. I also understand that the extremely high chase rate to go along with solid, but not incredible contact rates, gives him very little room for error. That's not to say he couldn't be an above average hitter, but the swing decisions and profile usually leads to a below average one. I hope he is able to be a great hitter in the majors, but I think none of us should be expecting that out of him.
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Post by rhswanzey on Jul 27, 2023 13:06:46 GMT -5
2023 MLB average/2023 Rafaela:BB%: 8.6%/4.4% K%: 22.7%/21.3% ISO: .164/.194 Let's remember that any talk of Rafaela having a strikeout issue, or lacking power are a projection and not the current reality. We should be excited about this guy, even if he ends up as a below average bat. The prolonged efforts by a minority to diminish his success is puzzling. A lot of the following article deals with the shift and is no longer relevant, but Jeff Zimmerman did a quick analysis (July 2022) of K% increase when making the jump from AAA to MLB:He found that hitters running a 20-30% K rate in AAA saw an average 4.1% increase when making the jump, median 4.0% increase. We can’t assume an average K rate hitter in AAA will come up and remain an average K rate hitter in MLB. Data doesn’t support this, and neither would qualitative analysis: MLB has better pitching than AAA does. And generally speaking, without drawing a firm line or specific number of PA, we can broadly say that players’ plate discipline and plate approach numbers stabilize and have less of an error bar much more quickly than other parts of their profile as hitters. e’s post immediately above this one is an excellent crystallization of the pushback arguments you’re seeing on Rafaela. He’s a dynamic player who has an elite carrying skill of defense at premium positions. He’s a useful player with no further development anywhere else. It’s fine to insist there is more in the bat; it’s not an invalid opinion. When we are trying to project what prospects will do in MLB, there are error bars, and there is a spectrum of outcomes. What you’re hearing is that you’re landing somewhere north of a 50th percentile outcome on the kind of hitter Rafaela would be if he were starting tonight in SF. The 50th percentile outcome is glove driven and more conservative with the bat.
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Post by jmei on Jul 27, 2023 15:22:49 GMT -5
Of the parts of his game to improve, I'm much more keen on seeing if Rafaela can cut his strikeout rate than if he can improve his walk rate. There are lots of successful hitters with the trio of (1) low walks, (2) better-than-average strikeout rate and (3) league-average to better power. For instance, among qualified hitters from 2021 to 2023 (I would encourage folks to use multi-season samples since fluky stuff can happen in a single season): Luis Robert: 4.7% BB, 23.5% K, .219 ISO, 132 wRC+ Bo Bichette: 5.4% BB, 20.5% K, .181 ISO, 127 wRC+ Austin Hays: 5.6% BB, 20.9% K, .179 ISO, 109 wRC+ Andres Gimenez: 5.7% BB, 20.1% K, .154 ISO, 112 wRC+
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Post by jmei on Jul 27, 2023 15:27:47 GMT -5
Separate thought: in September and/or the playoffs, if the Red Sox have an extra position player spot to fill, I think Rafaela is a very real candidate to get that spot. Hamilton is a better baserunner, but Rafaela is no slouch in that department and is both a much better defender at SS/2B and a more versatile one who can also fill in at CF (for instance, if they pinch run for Yoshida or Duvall or remove one of them in the ninth for a defensive replacement). Hamilton has better platoon splits, but even with the platoon disadvantage, I think Rafaela is the better hitter (you wouldn't want either of them coming up to the plate too often, though).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 27, 2023 15:36:41 GMT -5
You think?
I've been pondering this more lately and I think it might depend on Duvall. If they move him and get through August with the 3 starters, Refsnyder, and Reyes as the 5th, I think it makes sense. If they still have Duvall though, I think the use case for Rafaela gets way smaller to the point it might not be worth it.
I feel bad because I think I disagreed with someone about this on TwitterX a few days ago and I've kind of come around a little.
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Post by jmei on Jul 27, 2023 16:32:23 GMT -5
Even without a Duvall trade, I think the Kiké trade makes it more likely that Rafaela gets that last spot. There’s more playing time for an outfielder than an infielder now, and Rafaela can still back up the infield positions if they really need him to. They don’t have a plus defensive CF on the roster anymore and Yoshida is a guy who could use a regular defensive replacement (with Duran/Duvall moving to LF). Against some left-handed starting pitchers, they may want to start an all RHH outfield. And Rafaela is more likely to be a piece of the next great Red Sox team than Hamilton and would rather he get those reps if it’s close between the two of them.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 27, 2023 20:07:51 GMT -5
Rafaela is very good at every aspect of baseball other than hitting if you ask me.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 27, 2023 20:27:48 GMT -5
I honestly have no clue what people are looking at when they watch Rafaela bat (which assumes they actually watch him bat).
My opinion is that the stat guys are in serious denial here and are totally ignoring actual accomplishments since the Sox removed the restraints. It's pretty obvious that the stat guys would rather see him fail than admit they are very wrong here.
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pd
Veteran
Posts: 325
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Post by pd on Jul 27, 2023 20:29:54 GMT -5
Rafaela is very good at every aspect of baseball other than hitting if you ask me. And yet he still continues to put up a 1.000 OPS. I thought that was good.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 27, 2023 20:30:18 GMT -5
I honestly have no clue what people are looking at when they watch Rafaela bat (which assumes they actually watch him bat). My opinion is that the stat guys are in serious denial here and are totally ignoring actual accomplishments since the Sox removed the restraints. It's pretty obvious that the stat guys would rather see him fail than admit they are very wrong here. What “accomplishments” are you referring to that aren’t stats, the very thing you just bashed other people for valuing? It’s not a bad thing to consider context dude, relax.
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Post by bentossaurus on Jul 27, 2023 20:32:18 GMT -5
Of the parts of his game to improve, I'm much more keen on seeing if Rafaela can cut his strikeout rate than if he can improve his walk rate. There are lots of successful hitters with the trio of (1) low walks, (2) better-than-average strikeout rate and (3) league-average to better power. For instance, among qualified hitters from 2021 to 2023 (I would encourage folks to use multi-season samples since fluky stuff can happen in a single season): Luis Robert: 4.7% BB, 23.5% K, .219 ISO, 132 wRC+ Bo Bichette: 5.4% BB, 20.5% K, .181 ISO, 127 wRC+ Austin Hays: 5.6% BB, 20.9% K, .179 ISO, 109 wRC+ Andres Gimenez: 5.7% BB, 20.1% K, .154 ISO, 112 wRC+ This! But even more so, I just want him to chase less, which kind of leads to the improved K%. I've also given some thought for a while to Rafaela playing SS and having Story at 2B, with Chang as the backup and Arroyo at greener pastures. Admitedly my initial thoughts were with Mondesi instead, but who knows what's going on there.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 27, 2023 20:47:32 GMT -5
The idea that the argument against Rafaela is strictly stats-based (even though that’d be enough in my mind) when the scouting community that actually gets, ya know, paid to scout is pretty much in line with those concerns when watching him, is pretty laughable to me. Not sure one fan with time on their hands to watch minor league games and rose colored glasses is really gonna convince me otherwise.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 27, 2023 20:50:06 GMT -5
I'm referring to the group that constantly points to relatively meaningless numbers like strike zone management while ignoring his .332 IsoP.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Jul 27, 2023 20:51:16 GMT -5
The idea that the argument against Rafaela is strictly stats-based (even though that’d be enough in my mind) when the scouting community that actually gets, ya know, paid to scout is pretty much in line with those concerns when watching him, is pretty laughable to me. Not sure one fan with time on their hands to watch minor league games and rose colored glasses is really gonna convince me otherwise. And if he turns out to be a stud (which obviously we all want, can’t believe that has to be stated) it will be BECAUSE he kept the K-rate down or got the walk-rate up or hit for a ton of power, which is all anybody has been saying here.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 27, 2023 20:53:49 GMT -5
The idea that the argument against Rafaela is strictly stats-based (even though that’d be enough in my mind) when the scouting community that actually gets, ya know, paid to scout is pretty much in line with those concerns when watching him, is pretty laughable to me. Not sure one fan with time on their hands to watch minor league games and rose colored glasses is really gonna convince me otherwise. Then why did the Red Sox remove the restraints and promote him 3 weeks later. I'll go with the Sox here.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 27, 2023 20:55:49 GMT -5
The idea that the argument against Rafaela is strictly stats-based (even though that’d be enough in my mind) when the scouting community that actually gets, ya know, paid to scout is pretty much in line with those concerns when watching him, is pretty laughable to me. Not sure one fan with time on their hands to watch minor league games and rose colored glasses is really gonna convince me otherwise. Then why did the Red Sox remove the restraints and promote him 3 weeks later. I'll go with the Sox here. What restraints did they remove? They gave up on him attempting to be more selective because it wasn’t taking and promoted him because there was nothing for him to improve that couldn’t also be improved in AAA. Great attempt at spin though.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 27, 2023 20:57:37 GMT -5
Well it's not up to @philbosoxfan to convince anyone, it's up to Cedanne Rafaela to do that and it's no secret that I also think he has the qualities to do that.
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Post by geostorm on Jul 27, 2023 21:10:32 GMT -5
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jul 27, 2023 21:16:01 GMT -5
Jesus, is that the new twitter logo, trash
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,665
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Post by cdj on Jul 27, 2023 21:28:10 GMT -5
This notion that pointing out a flaw a player has that could be exploited by the best baseball players in the world is tearing him down is hilarious
Fans of Blaze Jordan do the same thing so it’s not just with Rafaela (though not to this extent). My advice? Let the kids develop and stop acting like they’re flawless prospects with no pitfalls and that pointing out weak points is bashing them! THAT is actually being unfair to the player.
The weird thing is you don’t see the same people getting butthurt about Mayer when people point out he struggles a bit with breaking balls.
Mayer has a flaw but he’s still a top 5-10 prospect in baseball. Rafaela is still a top 5 prospect on this team in a strong system (at the bare minimum). Pointing out that he needs to cut down on the chase is not tearing him down and quite frankly the people (and there have been multiple) who are making this claim need to grow up. You can still believe in the player and point out flaws. I like Rafaela a ton and think he’s the CF of the future. I cannot wait to see him play defense. I’m just not gonna blind myself to potential weak spots that could make him look bad in the show.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 27, 2023 21:31:47 GMT -5
Ray, I'm curious, why do you take this stuff so personally sometimes? You did the same thing with Houck. Nobody is attacking the kid personally or wishing him to fail here.
The point has never been "Rafaela is going to fail." The point is "his very high chase rate is likely going to limit his ceiling as he moves up." If we're talking about what the Red Sox did, what they did is recognize this problem and try really, really hard to get him to work on it to start the year. When that very clearly was not working (he was clearly often taking pitches just to take them rather than actually tracking and work to improve his aggressiveness, and everything else was going souty), they realized that to succeed, he may just need to be that aggressive. I don't think it was a realization that it didn't matter. It was a realization that it wasn't going to take and was just going to make him worse, so it was pointless, so they just needed to let him go to get the best version of Rafaela, for now at least.
He's an exciting player. I like him a lot! Others here do too who you seem to be directing your ire towards. I can like him and think he's a good prospect while also pointing out that the chase rate scares me and discuss with others what that might mean without it meaning that I hate him personally and want him to fail, just like how pointing out how Houck's trouble with LHB and going through lineups multiple times were going to be potential issues with him remaining a starter (lo and behold...) didn't mean I WANTED that.
It's a discussion forum, man.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 27, 2023 21:35:09 GMT -5
Then why did the Red Sox remove the restraints and promote him 3 weeks later. I'll go with the Sox here. What restraints did they remove? They gave up on him attempting to be more selective because it wasn’t taking and promoted him because there was nothing for him to improve that couldn’t also be improved in AAA. Great attempt at spin though. Yes those restraints and they promoted him after his bat started taking off. Funny, when talking about defense and power, Law just career comped him to Kiermeier, a 30 WAR career player and that didn't include Rafaela's better speed or that he also plays shortstop. Sorry that you can't see it. Denial is a terrible thing to waste.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,665
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Post by cdj on Jul 27, 2023 21:37:03 GMT -5
Like people do realize that if Rafaela didn’t have chase issues he’d probably be a top 20 prospect in baseball, right? he makes contact at a solid clip, he has pop, he can run, he has a cannon, and his CF defense is perhaps the best in the minors. There’s a reason why he’s a backend top 100 guy. He has warts. Most prospects do unless they’re named Jackson Holliday. Pointing them out and how it may hurt his big league projection is not personally attacking them or wanting to see them fail. Pointing them out is not denying his merit as a top prospect in this system. It’s not even saying it’s a fatal flaw. This is just childish.
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