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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jul 24, 2023 17:38:44 GMT -5
And meanwhile, Story with a sombrero - and it isn't the Mexican League. Just a couple of questions to while away the time: Could Rafaela play as good a SS as Yu Chang? Could Rafaela hit at least .150 in the Major leagues? Could Rafaela's development be ruined by coming up to hit .151? If so, we'll just let him have a talk with Dustin Pedroia.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 24, 2023 17:44:05 GMT -5
So here's the context. As of July 6, Rafaela had a 42% chase rate in AAA. As of today, there are 21 MLB hitters with a 42% or higher chase rate with 200 PA. Some of them are very good! Luis Robert (137 wRC+) and Josh Naylor (129 wRC+) stand out. But there are some absolutely abysmal hitters as well. In all, 11 of the 21 are below 100 wRC+. 8 are below 90, 8 are between 90 and 110, 5 above 110. But here's the thing about these hitters. Only 3 of them have an OBP over .330. Naylor is the only one above .340. 11 of the 21 have an OBP below .300. In other words, chasing like that puts pressure on a player to slug the hell out of the ball in order to be productive on offense. The players on the list who aren't sluggers like Robert or Eloy Jimenez are either catchers (Sal Perez, Yainer Diaz, Christian Bethancourt or... get this... defense-first types like (modern) Javy Baez or Will Brennan. Can Rafaela be a productive player chasing at that high a rate? Yeah. I just worry about how the chase rate translates - just 7 of these guys are above 45% O-swing: Yanier Diaz (catcher), Salvador Perez (catcher), Christian Bethancourt (catcher), Javier Baez (El Mago), Harold Castro (replacement-ish level utility type), Harold Ramirez (platoon OF/DH), and Eddie Rosario. I dunno, maybe good Eddie Rosario at the plate with 70 defense is the realistic hope? Through July 6th (your sample), Rafaela had a .182/.229/.364 triple splash line in his first 35 AAA plate appearances. Since then he is hitting .388/.434/.673 in 53 plate appearances. That sample was small and a bit deceiving. Do you know what his chase rate has been since July 6th? I certainly wouldn't have thought that nearly half of the MLB players with a 42% chase rate were above average hitters. Within that context, there's definitely more reason for optimism. For many of us our excitement about Rafaela is because he doesn't need to be an average hitter to make an impact at the major league level. But his continued offensive success at each level, despite his one shortcoming (although it is a major shortcoming) provides hope that he could be an average-to-better offensive player. MLB pitchers may expose his aggressive nature, but that was true of AAA pitchers as well, and that hasn't happened yet - more reason for optimism.
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 24, 2023 21:08:07 GMT -5
Likely September call up?
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Post by rhswanzey on Jul 24, 2023 21:35:05 GMT -5
So here's the context. As of July 6, Rafaela had a 42% chase rate in AAA. As of today, there are 21 MLB hitters with a 42% or higher chase rate with 200 PA. Some of them are very good! Luis Robert (137 wRC+) and Josh Naylor (129 wRC+) stand out. But there are some absolutely abysmal hitters as well. In all, 11 of the 21 are below 100 wRC+. 8 are below 90, 8 are between 90 and 110, 5 above 110. But here's the thing about these hitters. Only 3 of them have an OBP over .330. Naylor is the only one above .340. 11 of the 21 have an OBP below .300. In other words, chasing like that puts pressure on a player to slug the hell out of the ball in order to be productive on offense. The players on the list who aren't sluggers like Robert or Eloy Jimenez are either catchers (Sal Perez, Yainer Diaz, Christian Bethancourt or... get this... defense-first types like (modern) Javy Baez or Will Brennan. Can Rafaela be a productive player chasing at that high a rate? Yeah. I just worry about how the chase rate translates - just 7 of these guys are above 45% O-swing: Yanier Diaz (catcher), Salvador Perez (catcher), Christian Bethancourt (catcher), Javier Baez (El Mago), Harold Castro (replacement-ish level utility type), Harold Ramirez (platoon OF/DH), and Eddie Rosario. I dunno, maybe good Eddie Rosario at the plate with 70 defense is the realistic hope? Through July 6th (your sample), Rafaela had a .182/.229/.364 triple splash line in his first 35 AAA plate appearances. Since then he is hitting .388/.434/.673 in 53 plate appearances. That sample was small and a bit deceiving. Do you know what his chase rate has been since July 6th? It’s worth mentioning that in terms of small samples, different metrics stabilize more quickly than others. K% stabilizes well before triple slash stats do. Here’s a Fangraphs entry explaining the Carleton method and charting out the rate of stabilization for a variety of pre-statcast metrics. This Reds centric site has a more recent Carleton method explainer, which also lists out stabilization points for a variety of metrics. Chase rate isn’t listed, but of the metrics that are listed, swing% (50 PA) and K% (60 PA) begin to stabilize very quickly. Compare to AVG (910 PA), OBP (460 PA), SLG (310 PA). I have no prayer of finding it - tangotiger maybe? - but I vividly remember reading a comparable analysis 20ish years ago explaining that you need multiple full seasons of data to get the noise out of platoon splits - 2000 PA maybe?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 25, 2023 10:15:37 GMT -5
So here's the context. As of July 6, Rafaela had a 42% chase rate in AAA. As of today, there are 21 MLB hitters with a 42% or higher chase rate with 200 PA. Some of them are very good! Luis Robert (137 wRC+) and Josh Naylor (129 wRC+) stand out. But there are some absolutely abysmal hitters as well. In all, 11 of the 21 are below 100 wRC+. 8 are below 90, 8 are between 90 and 110, 5 above 110. But here's the thing about these hitters. Only 3 of them have an OBP over .330. Naylor is the only one above .340. 11 of the 21 have an OBP below .300. In other words, chasing like that puts pressure on a player to slug the hell out of the ball in order to be productive on offense. The players on the list who aren't sluggers like Robert or Eloy Jimenez are either catchers (Sal Perez, Yainer Diaz, Christian Bethancourt or... get this... defense-first types like (modern) Javy Baez or Will Brennan. Can Rafaela be a productive player chasing at that high a rate? Yeah. I just worry about how the chase rate translates - just 7 of these guys are above 45% O-swing: Yanier Diaz (catcher), Salvador Perez (catcher), Christian Bethancourt (catcher), Javier Baez (El Mago), Harold Castro (replacement-ish level utility type), Harold Ramirez (platoon OF/DH), and Eddie Rosario. I dunno, maybe good Eddie Rosario at the plate with 70 defense is the realistic hope? Through July 6th (your sample), Rafaela had a .182/.229/.364 triple splash line in his first 35 AAA plate appearances. Since then he is hitting .388/.434/.673 in 53 plate appearances. That sample was small and a bit deceiving. Do you know what his chase rate has been since July 6th? I certainly wouldn't have thought that nearly half of the MLB players with a 42% chase rate were above average hitters. Within that context, there's definitely more reason for optimism. For many of us our excitement about Rafaela is because he doesn't need to be an average hitter to make an impact at the major league level. But his continued offensive success at each level, despite his one shortcoming (although it is a major shortcoming) provides hope that he could be an average-to-better offensive player. MLB pitchers may expose his aggressive nature, but that was true of AAA pitchers as well, and that hasn't happened yet - more reason for optimism. Yeah I'm very interested in seeing what his metrics look like, but I don't expect his chase rate to have improved much. It was 39% in Portland. We'll see (we get them monthly, typically). Had a similar thought on the MLB sample, but I also think there's some selection bias there in that the hitters who chase like crazy and can't hit haven't gotten to 200 PA, right? Like Raimel Tapia chased at a 40% rate in Boston. He just got DFA again.
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Post by ephus on Jul 25, 2023 11:07:24 GMT -5
So all of this concern about high K%, low BB% has me thinking about a couple of my favorite high K%, Low BB% guys who flashed leather. Like Jim Edmunds. Career 22% K, 12.5% BB. And dude won a silver slugger. lol. And while Mike Cameron was basically Caeddanne 1.0; I am partial to Reggie Sanders who sure looked great on his baseball cards and sported a 23% K rate with a miniscule 9.5% BB rate. One fun one is to take away Reggie Jackson's IBBs which leaves him with a 23% K rate and a 10.6% BB rate. This episode of cherry-picked stats brought to you by blind love of cherry-picked defensive wizardry. Each of the players you mentioned actually had better-than-average walk rates for their careers, and significantly better-than-average in their best years. It's really, really hard to be a good offensive player with a terrible walk rate. Devers is one of the most free-swinging stars in the league whose value is almost entirely bat-driven, and even he puts up close to an average walk rate. Very few batters can do so much damage on contact that they can afford to forfeit the free value offered by taking pitches out of the strike zone. Rafaela doesn't impact the ball enough for me to think he can be that rare exception, though I certainly hope he is. Indeed, which is exactly why I cherry-picked premium players with high K-rate and comparably (to their strikeouts) low-walk-rate. Plus most of these dudes flashed serious leather. The combination of a high strikeout rate, low walk rate, high batting average and fantastic defense is exactly what made these guys memorable. As fans we love players who swing the stick, flash leather and get results. Do I think Ceddanne is the next Jim Edmunds or Reggie Jackson? Sir, I am not insane. Do I want to see what the kid can do in the Show? Absolutely. A September call-up as a defensive replacement, with a real shot in camp next spring? Let's go.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Jul 25, 2023 11:14:21 GMT -5
Each of the players you mentioned actually had better-than-average walk rates for their careers, and significantly better-than-average in their best years. It's really, really hard to be a good offensive player with a terrible walk rate. Devers is one of the most free-swinging stars in the league whose value is almost entirely bat-driven, and even he puts up close to an average walk rate. Very few batters can do so much damage on contact that they can afford to forfeit the free value offered by taking pitches out of the strike zone. Rafaela doesn't impact the ball enough for me to think he can be that rare exception, though I certainly hope he is. Indeed, which is exactly why I cherry-picked premium players with high K-rate and comparably (to their strikeouts) low-walk-rate. Plus most of these dudes flashed serious leather. The combination of a high strikeout rate, low walk rate, high batting average and fantastic defense is exactly what made these guys memorable. As fans we love players who swing the stick, flash leather and get results. Do I think Ceddanne is the next Jim Edmunds or Reggie Jackson? Sir, I am not insane. Do I want to see what the kid can do in the Show? Absolutely. A September call-up as a defensive replacement, with a real shot in camp next spring? Let's go. I think it should again be clarified that none of the guys you referenced had low walk rates.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 25, 2023 11:43:33 GMT -5
There are no qualified players in MLB in 2023 with both a lower BB%s and higher K%s than Rafaela's career minor league totals and also an above average batting line. Like Chris said some of it is survivorship bias, because a lot of guys who chase this much can't stick as regulars. Doesn't mean he can't get there, Bo Bichette is pretty close to his rates, Mickey Moniak has been awesome in limited time at worse levels, though they both have higher ISOs than Rafaela has for his career. Rafaela can improve too of course (and maybe he has), but I think that expecting him to be even an average hitter in MLB is a tall order. He doesn't need to be though, he can be a bad hitter and still be a really valuable player.
I think that the people urging caution aren't trying to crap on Rafaela though, it's just we need to temper expectations with some of the comps and the fact that his slash line is probably well ahead of what it will probably look like in the Majors based on his swing decisions. Excited to find out though.
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Post by seamus on Jul 25, 2023 12:32:41 GMT -5
I believe Chris said something to this effect on one of the recent podcasts: if he were to play in the big leagues right now, we're more likely to get 2022 JBJ than 2015 JBJ. No need to rush him when they have a glut of up-the-middle players in Boston already and he needs everyday plate appearances.
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Post by remmartin34 on Jul 25, 2023 12:39:03 GMT -5
I believe Chris said something to this effect on one of the recent podcasts: if he were to play in the big leagues right now, we're more likely to get 2022 JBJ than 2015 JBJ. No need to rush him when they have a glut of up-the-middle players in Boston already and he needs everyday plate appearances. ^^^^^ THIS 100%
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 25, 2023 13:01:54 GMT -5
The bigger thing is they'd be losing depth to make room for him with no guarantee he's an upgrade. They're having a hard time deciding between Kiké, Arroyo and Reyes for crying out loud. You'd have to cut someone else to call up Rafaela. And another in a few weeks for Story.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 25, 2023 17:19:08 GMT -5
Yeah I'm very interested in seeing what his metrics look like, but I don't expect his chase rate to have improved much. It was 39% in Portland. We'll see (we get them monthly, typically). Had a similar thought on the MLB sample, but I also think there's some selection bias there in that the hitters who chase like crazy and can't hit haven't gotten to 200 PA, right? Like Raimel Tapia chased at a 40% rate in Boston. He just got DFA again. The emboldened part is speculation within this context though. Most players who 'can't hit' aren't going to survive past 200PA/year in the majors regardless of how much they chase and although Rafaela may 'chase like crazy', all evidence so far suggests that he can hit. Can he hit at the major league level? We won't know that for sure until he gets there. Your sample shows that, among successful 2023 hitters who chase at a 42%+ rate, only slightly less than half (52%) are below average. It doesn't tell us if Rafaela will succeed, but it does provide an outline for a player like Rafaela to be more than a bottom-of-the-order hitter at the MLB level. Over the course of 3 years in AA/AAA Lin never had an ISO over .068 (as opposed to Rafaela's .208 ISO)...he's not going to be Lin. Get on the bandwagon before it fills up! For the chase rate metrics, you've mentioned previously that you guys get some of info that isn't publicly available - are you allowed to share this data (in full) with the community?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 25, 2023 19:28:35 GMT -5
I wasn't saying Rafaela can't hit. No idea how you got that. I was literally making the same point you did in that first part - there's survivorship bias in the data because the guys who chase and suck aren't part of the sample because they don't get MLB playing time.
Which Lin are you even talking about, because I'm not sure anyone has brought one of them up?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 26, 2023 8:23:56 GMT -5
I wasn't saying Rafaela can't hit. No idea how you got that. I was literally making the same point you did in that first part - there's survivorship bias in the data because the guys who chase and suck aren't part of the sample because they don't get MLB playing time. Which Lin are you even talking about, because I'm not sure anyone has brought one of them up? I did not say that you said that he can't hit, not sure where you got that. Simply pointing out that although there's certain to be correlation and causation at times, the survivorship bias is related to players who 'can hit (well enough)' and we don't know whether it's relevant to Rafaela at this time OR without more data of similar players who don't meet the 200 PA criteria. You had referenced Lin (CHL) in an earlier post as a player who was projected for a high floor due to his defense but didn't work out. Any chance of sharing the chase rate and similar data (not for Rafaela in particular, just in general)?
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 26, 2023 16:44:46 GMT -5
Obviously, not comparing the players. But, Nomar walked 35 times 734 pa’s his roookie year. And, 33 in 654 pa’s his second year.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Jul 26, 2023 17:07:52 GMT -5
Again, it's not just that he's striking out ~24% of the time, and it's not that he refuses to take a walk: it's that he does both of those things. Unless he somehow transcends his frame and develops not just sneaky pop but genuine, huge power, he has almost no pathway to being an above-average hitter until the K-rate comes down or the walk-rate goes up. Go check the Fangraphs leaderboards - the math just doesn't work out barring some SS BABIP noise.
If he doesn't alter his current profile, the reasonable hope is for a 90-100 wRC+. As people have pointed out, that's a really good player if the defense comes as advertised. But it's probably not a star, at least on a consistent basis.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,126
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Post by jimoh on Jul 26, 2023 17:39:34 GMT -5
Obviously, not comparing the players. But, Nomar walked 35 times 734 pa’s his roookie year. And, 33 in 654 pa’s his second year. Nomar's K % as a rookie was 12.5%, then it was 9.5% and 6.6%. Career 9.1%. With that wide stance and the #5 on his back, we had Joe DiMaggio playing SS for a while.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 26, 2023 18:08:59 GMT -5
Obviously, not comparing the players. But, Nomar walked 35 times 734 pa’s his roookie year. And, 33 in 654 pa’s his second year. Nomar's K % as a rookie was 12.5%, then it was 9.5% and 6.6%. Career 9.1%. With that wide stance and the #5 on his back, we had Joe DiMaggio playing SS for a while. For several years there, that's almost exactly what they had - Joe DiMaggio at SS. Ted Williams certainly thought so and who am I to argue?
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Post by adamgregory81 on Jul 26, 2023 18:11:04 GMT -5
Again, it's not just that he's striking out ~24% of the time, and it's not that he refuses to take a walk: it's that he does both of those things. Unless he somehow transcends his frame and develops not just sneaky pop but genuine, huge power, he has almost no pathway to being an above-average hitter until the K-rate comes down or the walk-rate goes up. Go check the Fangraphs leaderboards - the math just doesn't work out barring some SS BABIP noise. If he doesn't alter his current profile, the reasonable hope is for a 90-100 wRC+. As people have pointed out, that's a really good player if the defense comes as advertised. But it's probably not a star, at least on a consistent basis. This is very Orwellian… to think that the quality of a MLB hitter can be reduced to three statistics (BB%, K%, and “power”) feels ridiculous to me. I may be (probably am) completely wrong, but it diminishes the art of baseball to “3 true outcomes” by assuming-away all of the little nuances you can’t explain. (I’d reckon that the same problem exists in present day macro economic theory.) I can see with my eyes that a player hitting lasers all over the diamond will have better results than a guy hitting dribblers; but those simple stats ignore the difference. You don’t need to hit it over the fence to be successful in baseball unless you’re trapped in a world of “advances statistics” that heavily favors home runs. That might not be applicable to Raffy, but it’s crazy to me to hold as indisputable fact that a guy that strikes out, doesn’t walk, and has less than genuine huge power, can not be a productive hitter… it’s just not true, it might be a reasonable guess if an outcome, but it’s not true.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 26, 2023 18:16:45 GMT -5
Again, it's not just that he's striking out ~24% of the time, and it's not that he refuses to take a walk: it's that he does both of those things. Unless he somehow transcends his frame and develops not just sneaky pop but genuine, huge power, he has almost no pathway to being an above-average hitter until the K-rate comes down or the walk-rate goes up. Go check the Fangraphs leaderboards - the math just doesn't work out barring some SS BABIP noise. If he doesn't alter his current profile, the reasonable hope is for a 90-100 wRC+. As people have pointed out, that's a really good player if the defense comes as advertised. But it's probably not a star, at least on a consistent basis. This is very Orwellian… to think that the quality of a MLB hitter can be reduced to three statistics (BB%, K%, and “power”) feels ridiculous to me. I may be (probably am) completely wrong, but it diminishes the art of baseball to “3 true outcomes” by assuming-away all of the little nuances you can’t explain. (I’d reckon that the same problem exists in present day macro economic theory.) I can see with my eyes that a player hitting lasers all over the diamond will have better results than a guy hitting dribblers; but those simple stats ignore the difference. You don’t need to hit it over the fence to be successful in baseball unless you’re trapped in a world of “advances statistics” that heavily favors home runs. That might not be applicable to Raffy, but it’s crazy to me to hold as indisputable fact that a guy that strikes out, doesn’t walk, and has less than genuine huge power, can not be a productive hitter… it’s just not true, it might be a reasonable guess if an outcome, but it’s not true. Examples?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 26, 2023 18:50:54 GMT -5
Didn't put a lot of thought into the numbers here, but here are the MLB hitters with 200 PA this year with K% >20%, BB% <6%, ISOp <0.100.
Harold Castro, 53 wRC+ Casey Schmitt, 49 wRC+ Tim Anderson, 56 wRC+ Eric Haase, 44 wRC+
Das it. If you strike out a bunch and don't walk and don't hit for power, you are by definition a bad hitter.
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Post by melvinhoggs on Jul 26, 2023 18:59:11 GMT -5
Didn't put a lot of thought into the numbers here, but here are the MLB hitters with 200 PA this year with K% >20%, BB% <6%, ISOp <0.100. Harold Castro, 53 wRC+ Casey Schmitt, 49 wRC+ Tim Anderson, 56 wRC+ Eric Haase, 44 wRC+ Das it. If you strike out a bunch and don't walk and don't hit for power, you are by definition a bad hitter. Yeah, I feel like the absolute best case scenario for a theoretical player like this is something like 2021 Amed Rosario. 5.3 BB%, 20.4 K%, .127 ISO and managed a whopping 99 wRC+ Edit: Actually, if you're trying to find guys that "hit lasers all over the field" but not over the fence (as was implied), you could also set a low HR bar rather than use ISO. 2022 Nick Gordon: 4.3 BB%, 23.7 K%, 9HR, 111 wRC+ 2021 Joey Wendle: 5.6 BB%, 22.6 K%, 11HR, 105 wRC+ Still not inspiring, but that's what you'd hope for as the best outcome for a player of this mold. And these are just single seasons, not proving they can do it over a sustained career.
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Post by dcb26 on Jul 26, 2023 19:07:28 GMT -5
I mean, to be a productive hitter who doesn't have significant power and doesn't walk much, you have to get a lot of hits and get your value through a high batting average - and almost by definition those are contact hitters and don't tend to strike out much. For everyone thinking people are trying to find reasons why Rafaela can't/won't be successful, try thinking of it the other way - where will his offensive value come from? At the most basic level it has to be some combination of OBP/SLG, and while high K rate + low walk rate doesn't actually guarantee low AVG and therefore low OBP, its not promising.
This is all assuming Rafaela doesn't learn to make better swing decisions or lower his strikeout rate, and doesn't develop above-average power. I think he has a very good chance to do both - in time. But for the sake of this conversation which assumes neither of those things happen, yeah, that's not a recipe for success.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Jul 26, 2023 22:01:28 GMT -5
This is all assuming Rafaela doesn't learn to make better swing decisions or lower his strikeout rate, and doesn't develop above-average power. I think he has a very good chance to do both - in time. But for the sake of this conversation which assumes neither of those things happen, yeah, that's not a recipe for success. I think this is the key - and he seems to be a kid with awareness and work ethic. How unprecedented is it for someone to develop improved/passable discipline over multiple years of development? Others would know better than me. But if he can, he's pretty much the complete package. And if it isn't unprecedented, I like his chances, especially in a utility role.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 26, 2023 22:03:40 GMT -5
This is all assuming Rafaela doesn't learn to make better swing decisions or lower his strikeout rate, and doesn't develop above-average power. I think he has a very good chance to do both - in time. But for the sake of this conversation which assumes neither of those things happen, yeah, that's not a recipe for success. I think this is the key - and he seems to be a kid with awareness and work ethic. How unprecedented is it for someone to develop improved/passable discipline over multiple years of development? Others would know better than me. But if he can, he's pretty much the complete package. And if it isn't unprecedented, I like his chances, especially in a utility role. You can use the “he can improve this skill” argument for literally any prospect, though. For it to be reasonable there has to be some kind of sign of improvement or an indicator the improvement is there. Not only has Rafaela seemingly not improve his plate discipline, it seems as if they’d scrapped trying to get him to be more selective as they were when either he admitted or it was reported he was taking pitches for the sake of taking them.
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