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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 22, 2023 10:47:49 GMT -5
I think Law was closer. Kiermaier but with more speed.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 22, 2023 10:58:19 GMT -5
I think Law was closer. Kiermaier but with more speed. Would be a very nice outcome for Ceddanne.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 22, 2023 11:03:43 GMT -5
Will probably have a higher batting average, but lower OBP. JBJ was a .230 hitter whose OBP was usually a little above .300. Rafaela might be a .250 hitter with a .280 OBP. The big question is how well his aggressive approach will allow him to hit. Will it limit him to below .250 with a putrid OBP or will his hit tool still allow him to hit .250 - .275 and have merely a below average OBP instead of a putrid one? my thoughts exactly. Their OPS should be pretty similar with rafaela supplying more power. I'm picturing almost a CF version of Javy Baez? Baez has light-tower power. I don't see that in Rafaela. I do think he'll be able to use the wall if/when he makes it to Fenway. The question will be how often he can do that.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 22, 2023 11:24:21 GMT -5
I think Law was closer. Kiermaier but with more speed. Would be a very nice outcome for Ceddanne. If his defense in CF is as good as they say which I've seen things like diamond glove and would be one of if not the best defensive CF in the MLB if he were in it now then I'd say he doesn't have to hit worth much to be a valuable player. The keirmaier and JBJ type comps make a ton of sense to me. Guys who can hit for some power but are clearly bottom 1/3 in lineup type hitters who will frustrate you with their ABs and then wow you with an amazing play that only 2 or 3 people in the world can even make. I'd honestly be fine with them plugging him into CF opening day next year and rolling with his ups and downs at the plate. If I was running sox I'd go with Duran/rafaela/Verdugo OF next year and get an Adam Duvall type who can play against all the lefties and play against some righties in case rafaela really struggles.
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Post by kwodes on Jul 22, 2023 12:02:31 GMT -5
Would be a very nice outcome for Ceddanne. If his defense in CF is as good as they say which I've seen things like diamond glove and would be one of if not the best defensive CF in the MLB if he were in it now then I'd say he doesn't have to hit worth much to be a valuable player. The keirmaier and JBJ type comps make a ton of sense to me. Guys who can hit for some power but are clearly bottom 1/3 in lineup type hitters who will frustrate you with their ABs and then wow you with an amazing play that only 2 or 3 people in the world can even make. I'd honestly be fine with them plugging him into CF opening day next year and rolling with his ups and downs at the plate. If I was running sox I'd go with Duran/rafaela/Verdugo OF next year and get an Adam Duvall type who can play against all the lefties and play against some righties in case rafaela really struggles. I think that's perfect and you don't even need a Duvall type. They already have Yoshida and Refsnyder under contract for next year. So an OF of Duran/Rafaela/Verdugo with yoshida and refsnyder getting time too is perfectly fine. Against tough righties you could have Yoshida/Duran/Verdugo. Tough lefties you have Ref/Rafaela/One of the other 3. Yoshida spends most of his time DHing and you play rafaela as much as he earns.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 22, 2023 12:46:39 GMT -5
A walk!! His second in the last month! Legitimately more exciting than a homer. And to go with that 7-pitch AB... Hard disagree. Rafaela’s never going to walk much. Whether he’s a 4% BB guy or an 8% BB guy won’t make a meaningful difference for his overall value. But if he can drive the ball for extra base hits, leg out some cheap singles and not strike out much a la 80% of 2023 Duran, he’ll be a multi year MLB starter. I was saying this last year and was informed he does not have plate discipline. While there are certain things to keep an eye out for regarding evaluating minor league hitters, keep in mind that it is merely a rule, a good rule, but not written in stone. When certain batters continue to hit well and exceed at each level you have to consider they may not follow the same path as most when it comes to predicting future sucess. There is one other player I'd say that applies to however his defense makes his basement lower than Rafaela's and that would be B. Jordan. I was told he chases to much, perhaps he does but he too simply succeeds at each level he's at and considering he's the same age and level as Mayer. That's not to suggest a comparison between the two but merely to remind others how much success he's had despite playing with others who on average are a few years older than he is. I think that just may carry more weight than someone who chases a slight amount more than what he is supposed to. I was glad to see Rafael get some love and move into the top ten about a year ago I think it's time Blaze joins him, even if it's at the 10 spot, as his defense limits his ceiling too. It's nice to have an interesting farm system again, there is hope on the horizon and the stream started with Bello and Cassas.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 22, 2023 13:22:14 GMT -5
If his defense in CF is as good as they say which I've seen things like diamond glove and would be one of if not the best defensive CF in the MLB if he were in it now then I'd say he doesn't have to hit worth much to be a valuable player. The keirmaier and JBJ type comps make a ton of sense to me. Guys who can hit for some power but are clearly bottom 1/3 in lineup type hitters who will frustrate you with their ABs and then wow you with an amazing play that only 2 or 3 people in the world can even make. I'd honestly be fine with them plugging him into CF opening day next year and rolling with his ups and downs at the plate. If I was running sox I'd go with Duran/rafaela/Verdugo OF next year and get an Adam Duvall type who can play against all the lefties and play against some righties in case rafaela really struggles. I think that's perfect and you don't even need a Duvall type. They already have Yoshida and Refsnyder under contract for next year. So an OF of Duran/Rafaela/Verdugo with yoshida and refsnyder getting time too is perfectly fine. Against tough righties you could have Yoshida/Duran/Verdugo. Tough lefties you have Ref/Rafaela/One of the other 3. Yoshida spends most of his time DHing and you play rafaela as much as he earns. I honestly keep forgetting about refsnyder he's a nice piece to have to face lefties. A guy like Duvall isn't completely necessary with refsnyder but I still think it'd be a good player to have.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 22, 2023 13:32:37 GMT -5
This is a more general question, but I’ve considered it in connection with Raffy. Is the grade column intended to be 20/80 percent estimates? For example, is Raffy’s 4-6 “grade” intended to mean that, in an imaginary simulation of a billion outcomes for Raffy, in at least 20 percent of those simulations, Raffy is no worse than an impact everyday player; and in 80 percent of those simulations he is no worse than an up and down player? I love this site. I read it more than Facebook or the news. And I love prospect analysis in general, I have subscriptions to BA, Fangraphs, the Athletic, and ESPN (I say that merely to preface and soften my cynical thoughts below.) With that said, isn’t that a loaded measurement? That is, it’s clear to me that Raffy is at least a 4 in nearly 100 percent of the simulations; based on nothing more than superlative defense at multiple positions, he could play for more than a handful of teams right now. Given he strikes out too much and can’t take a walk without being forced to by his mother-in-law, there are questions about his bat; but isn’t it crazy to view “6” as his ceiling? If he replicated his combined numbers from this year, together with +, or ++ defense at one or more premium positions, that’s a frequent All-star - is that a 6? Feels like it’s higher. Is the argument that, at least 20 percent of the time, his bat will decline enough to keep him from being a league average hitter? If he replicates his AAA numbers, isn’t that an 8? It feels like these grades would be better published with a graph. I assume that 4-6 is intended to reflect Raffy has a relatively high floor, but in doing so, I think it ignores that his floor is essentially T-bill risk free, and understates significant upside; but I don’t mean to say that like I’m right, it’s just a point I can’t ignore and thus wanted to raise. SP.com doesn't directly outline that they are on a 90/10 percentile scale, but that seems to be the standard for rating sites (although that's more of a guide). I assume that that their 4-6 for Rafaela is a 40 for 10th percentile and 60 for 90th percentile. In terms of an 8, that's a 99.9 percentile player (one in a thousand). Mike Trout is an 8(80) and posted a wRC+ between 167 and 189 for 11 seasons while playing average-to-better defense at a premium position and displaying average-to-double-plus baserunning. Mookie has had a wRC+ of 107-185 for 9 seasons while playing above-average-to-double-plus defense along with above-average-to-double-plus baserunning - and Mookie as an 8(80) is probably debatable (probably 65-80 depending on the season). Rafaela has posted wRC+, in the minor leagues, of 146 (in only 78 PA) and 156 (in only 209 PA) but the rest of his appearance have ranged from 105 to 119. Between A-ball and AAA, Mookie had wRC+ between 158 and 177 while Trout was between 117 and 179. Trout made his MLB debut at 19 while Mookie was 21 - Rafaela will be 23 in 2 months. I'm a big Rafaela fan, but just wanted to hammer home the point of the outlier status of '80' players. I agree with your assessment that Rafaela has a very high floor, but baseball is littered with players who were 'can't miss prospects' who had their flaws exposed in MLB and devolved into no longer performing in MiLB upon attempting to make adjustments and struggling mentally. With Rafaela, my concerns are (a) he can't make the routine defensive play at the level at which scouts claim he can (this is common as scouting routine plays is very difficult due to the focus it requires - although recent defensive metrics help) and (b) his aggressive offensive style is exploited by more experienced pitching to a degree that his strikeout rate skyrockets (this is why I'm very excited that it didn't happen yet in AAA). Perhaps 4.5-6 is more fair than 4-6, but SP.com takes their time in updates and this may come in another month if Rafaela further establishes himself in AAA. Keep in mind, out of every major ranking site SP.com was the lowest on Rafaela this off-season as the other sites all had him as a 50(5) future projection. SP.com tends to be less bullish on these ratings, which is likely part of the reason, although on an earlier page Chris Hatfield expressed his consternation of rating defense-first prospects highly due to past prospects who hadn't worked out. Rafaela also seems to have his power dismissed easily due to his size (5'9" and ~165 lbs) and his lack of monstrous in-game or batting-practice (above average) power displays along with averag-ish exit velocities. He clearly has good in-game power, but these two factors lead scouts to knock him (fairly or not) on his potential power.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 22, 2023 14:06:31 GMT -5
If Rafaela can hit 15+ HRs a year 30+ doubles and maintain a .330ish (or better) OBP with his elite defense in CF and above average at SS, he's 3.0-3.5ish fWAR (or better) player.
You can do a whole lot worse for a 7-8-9 hitter who saves you beaucoup runs a year in the field.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 22, 2023 14:11:04 GMT -5
If Rafaela can hit 15+ HRs a year 30+ doubles and maintain a .330ish (or better) OBP with his elite defense in CF and above average at SS, he's 3.0-3.5ish fWAR (or better) player. You can do a whole lot worse for a 7-8-9 hitter who saves you beaucoup runs a year in the field. With how good his defense sounds thatd probably be a 4-5 WAR type player. That OBP is probably too high. He may have a season where he does that but it'd probably be buoyed by a high BA and BABPIP.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 22, 2023 15:29:43 GMT -5
It's so interesting to me a prospect that can play high level defense at the hardest positions. I hope he makes his way up here. I been rooting for him.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jul 22, 2023 19:37:52 GMT -5
And meanwhile, Story with a sombrero - and it isn't the Mexican League.
Just a couple of questions to while away the time:
Could Rafaela play as good a SS as Yu Chang?
Could Rafaela hit at least .150 in the Major leagues?
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 23, 2023 2:33:52 GMT -5
I don’t know why Rafaela isn’t so popular on this site. This kid is 22 hitting .320 with 6 homers in 75 ABs in AAA and the best defensive CF we have at any level. Also a very good SS. AND a RHH. Pretty much checks every box and yet it seems ALL everyone does is question his ability’s all year. I don’t get it. He doesn’t take walks. Whoopy do. In my perfect world he’s starting at SS next year. Perfect bridge for 2025 when Mayer comes up Yoshi moves to DH because Turner will be gone(SAD DAY)Duran to LF and Rafaela to CF. Instead of forcing Story back to SS let’s keep him at 2nd. He’s amazing there and we have Rafaela who can handle it just fine.
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,126
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Post by jimoh on Jul 23, 2023 6:29:52 GMT -5
And meanwhile, Story with a sombrero - and it isn't the Mexican League. Just a couple of questions to while away the time: Could Rafaela play as good a SS as Yu Chang? Could Rafaela hit at least .150 in the Major leagues? Could Rafaela's development be ruined by coming up to hit .151?
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jul 23, 2023 16:51:22 GMT -5
I don’t know why Rafaela isn’t so popular on this site. This kid is 22 hitting .320 with 6 homers in 75 ABs in AAA and the best defensive CF we have at any level. Also a very good SS. AND a RHH. Pretty much checks every box and yet it seems ALL everyone does is question his ability’s all year. I don’t get it. He doesn’t take walks. Whoopy do. In my perfect world he’s starting at SS next year. Perfect bridge for 2025 when Mayer comes up Yoshi moves to DH because Turner will be gone(SAD DAY)Duran to LF and Rafaela to CF. Instead of forcing Story back to SS let’s keep him at 2nd. He’s amazing there and we have Rafaela who can handle it just fine. My hope is that he is the CF in 2024. We need the elite defense potential out there. As much as you wonder why Raffaela does not get enough love, I wonder why so much opposition to Story at SS. Story will not feel "forced" there, he belongs there !! But, this is a Rafaela thread, so I am here to side with your point of view. 2024 should his be his time !!!
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 23, 2023 16:59:17 GMT -5
I would love to see Rafaela on the 2024 team getting starter or close to starter at bats in CF and playing some SS. Maybe that’s more realistic in the middle of 2024, but you Keep Story fresh and hopefully by the end of the year or in 2025 he can slide Duran to LF and we can let Yoshida DH.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 23, 2023 19:58:39 GMT -5
I don't want to be a total buzzkill on Rafaela as I do think what he's doing is obviously exciting, and I know by no means are they identical players, but it's worth noting that JBJ hit really well in AAA as well before coming up (.275/.374/.469, 39 XBH in 80 games), while walking way more and striking out less. Again they're not 1-for-1 comparisons but just citing a slash line as evidence that he might be a better hitter than the scouting report indicates is only taking a very, very small portion of the picture. At the end of the day the approach concerns are going to manifest themselves at the MLB level and, likely, soon in AAA as well. Professional pitchers at this level of the game are too good to not take advantage of attacking a batter who will offer at bad pitches. It is super super encouraging that despite that Rafaela is capable of impacting the ball to such an extent, and for that reason I don't think he will perpetually be an offensive black hole, meaning he'll add more than enough value at the plate to make up for his deficiencies there and allow the glove to play. But I think anyone expecting him to be anything better than streaky at best is ignoring the obvious red flags that will be exposed sooner or later. You can still take a lot away from this stretch, I'm not saying you can't. I just think that contextualizing it properly is acknowledging this is probably not who he is. He's striking out more than he has in 4 years and hitting for more power than he ever has, to use your words "that doesn't just happen", not at this level. It's a fantastic hot stretch, but it's gonna take a much larger sample to convince me that it's more than that given what he's shown in his time in the minors to date. You aren't buzzkilling me at all. I've seen about 85% of his ABs this year and I rarely use peripheral stats to make my opinion. The vast majority of posters and evaluators are the other way around. I've seen far more hot smashes that an infielder was only able to knock down go as infield hits than dribblers that he legs out. Rafaela will be the final arbitrator here. Have you seen much of him at SS? Most of the scouting feedback on him has centered around his 'potential' and I'm wondering how 'ready' he would be to play SS in MLB.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 23, 2023 21:11:22 GMT -5
You aren't buzzkilling me at all. I've seen about 85% of his ABs this year and I rarely use peripheral stats to make my opinion. The vast majority of posters and evaluators are the other way around. I've seen far more hot smashes that an infielder was only able to knock down go as infield hits than dribblers that he legs out. Rafaela will be the final arbitrator here. Have you seen much of him at SS? Most of the scouting feedback on him has centered around his 'potential' and I'm wondering how 'ready' he would be to play SS in MLB. Rafaela is roughly equal to Chang right now. With reps, gold glove caliber. His transfer speed is off the charts, reminiscent of Pedroia in that aspect. The concept of not being able to handle routine pays is, to me, laughable. He is also going to positively affect the left fielder, more so than Chang or Story.
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cdj
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Posts: 15,665
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Post by cdj on Jul 24, 2023 7:12:37 GMT -5
I don’t know why Rafaela isn’t so popular on this site. This kid is 22 hitting .320 with 6 homers in 75 ABs in AAA and the best defensive CF we have at any level. Also a very good SS. AND a RHH. Pretty much checks every box and yet it seems ALL everyone does is question his ability’s all year. I don’t get it. He doesn’t take walks. Whoopy do. In my perfect world he’s starting at SS next year. Perfect bridge for 2025 when Mayer comes up Yoshi moves to DH because Turner will be gone(SAD DAY)Duran to LF and Rafaela to CF. Instead of forcing Story back to SS let’s keep him at 2nd. He’s amazing there and we have Rafaela who can handle it just fine. People are questioning a very legitimate red flag, it’s not just that he doesn’t walk. It’s that he chases. MLB pitchers will likely exploit that, and then everybody will be panicking about him like they did with Casas. And I wouldn’t say he is unpopular, most people just don’t want to rush the kid after 75 AAA AB’s or bring him up to play him at his 2nd best position when he’s not ready and there are other options just about there (and one of those other options is a high end defensive SS who used to get mvp votes) I would much rather play Yu Chang and Trevor Story than screw with Rafaela’s development. Leave him out in CF and let him come up at some point next season.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 24, 2023 14:56:04 GMT -5
I don’t know why Rafaela isn’t so popular on this site. This kid is 22 hitting .320 with 6 homers in 75 ABs in AAA and the best defensive CF we have at any level. Also a very good SS. AND a RHH. Pretty much checks every box and yet it seems ALL everyone does is question his ability’s all year. I don’t get it. He doesn’t take walks. Whoopy do. In my perfect world he’s starting at SS next year. Perfect bridge for 2025 when Mayer comes up Yoshi moves to DH because Turner will be gone(SAD DAY)Duran to LF and Rafaela to CF. Instead of forcing Story back to SS let’s keep him at 2nd. He’s amazing there and we have Rafaela who can handle it just fine. People are questioning a very legitimate red flag, it’s not just that he doesn’t walk. It’s that he chases. MLB pitchers will likely exploit that, and then everybody will be panicking about him like they did with Casas. And I wouldn’t say he is unpopular, most people just don’t want to rush the kid after 75 AAA AB’s or bring him up to play him at his 2nd best position when he’s not ready and there are other options just about there (and one of those other options is a high end defensive SS who used to get mvp votes) I would much rather play Yu Chang and Trevor Story than screw with Rafaela’s development. Leave him out in CF and let him come up at some point next season. There’s a lot of great players that chase. I understand if he wasn’t hitting but he is. Better numbers across the board then hit first Yorke and I don’t see many worried about him. My point was to bring him up at SS next year not this year to get him some ABs and keep Story at 2nd where he’s played GG defense. I think this is as much about Story/Mayer as Rafaela. If he starts 2024 at SS and we still got a good defensive infield with the same OF and he gets ABs. He’s going to play better then our opening day SS this year and he will get experience. Then in 2025 hopefully Mayer comes up Rafaela to CF, Duran to LF and Masa to DH and Rafaela will have a ton of ABs under his belt. Putting Story at SS and still not having a 2nd baseman then pulling Story off SS for Mayer is just not smart imo. We have an answer in Rafaela. That was more of my point.
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Post by ephus on Jul 24, 2023 15:15:20 GMT -5
So all of this concern about high K%, low BB% has me thinking about a couple of my favorite high K%, Low BB% guys who flashed leather. Like Jim Edmunds. Career 22% K, 12.5% BB. And dude won a silver slugger. lol. And while Mike Cameron was basically Caeddanne 1.0; I am partial to Reggie Sanders who sure looked great on his baseball cards and sported a 23% K rate with a miniscule 9.5% BB rate. One fun one is to take away Reggie Jackson's IBBs which leaves him with a 23% K rate and a 10.6% BB rate. This episode of cherry-picked stats brought to you by blind love of cherry-picked defensive wizardry.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 24, 2023 15:18:59 GMT -5
Even Bogaerts struggled when they brought him up and put him on the playoff roster in 2013, and he was a super prospect.
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Post by seamus on Jul 24, 2023 16:00:44 GMT -5
So all of this concern about high K%, low BB% has me thinking about a couple of my favorite high K%, Low BB% guys who flashed leather. Like Jim Edmunds. Career 22% K, 12.5% BB. And dude won a silver slugger. lol. And while Mike Cameron was basically Caeddanne 1.0; I am partial to Reggie Sanders who sure looked great on his baseball cards and sported a 23% K rate with a miniscule 9.5% BB rate. One fun one is to take away Reggie Jackson's IBBs which leaves him with a 23% K rate and a 10.6% BB rate. This episode of cherry-picked stats brought to you by blind love of cherry-picked defensive wizardry. Each of the players you mentioned actually had better-than-average walk rates for their careers, and significantly better-than-average in their best years. It's really, really hard to be a good offensive player with a terrible walk rate. Devers is one of the most free-swinging stars in the league whose value is almost entirely bat-driven, and even he puts up close to an average walk rate. Very few batters can do so much damage on contact that they can afford to forfeit the free value offered by taking pitches out of the strike zone. Rafaela doesn't impact the ball enough for me to think he can be that rare exception, though I certainly hope he is.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 24, 2023 16:23:40 GMT -5
So here's the context. As of July 6, Rafaela had a 42% chase rate in AAA.
As of today, there are 21 MLB hitters with a 42% or higher chase rate with 200 PA. Some of them are very good! Luis Robert (137 wRC+) and Josh Naylor (129 wRC+) stand out. But there are some absolutely abysmal hitters as well. In all, 11 of the 21 are below 100 wRC+. 8 are below 90, 8 are between 90 and 110, 5 above 110.
But here's the thing about these hitters. Only 3 of them have an OBP over .330. Naylor is the only one above .340. 11 of the 21 have an OBP below .300. In other words, chasing like that puts pressure on a player to slug the hell out of the ball in order to be productive on offense. The players on the list who aren't sluggers like Robert or Eloy Jimenez are either catchers (Sal Perez, Yainer Diaz, Christian Bethancourt or... get this... defense-first types like (modern) Javy Baez or Will Brennan.
Can Rafaela be a productive player chasing at that high a rate? Yeah. I just worry about how the chase rate translates - just 7 of these guys are above 45% O-swing: Yanier Diaz (catcher), Salvador Perez (catcher), Christian Bethancourt (catcher), Javier Baez (El Mago), Harold Castro (replacement-ish level utility type), Harold Ramirez (platoon OF/DH), and Eddie Rosario. I dunno, maybe good Eddie Rosario at the plate with 70 defense is the realistic hope?
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cdj
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Posts: 15,665
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Post by cdj on Jul 24, 2023 16:43:01 GMT -5
Eddie Rosario-like bat with his defense can play for my team any day
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