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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 20, 2023 21:14:53 GMT -5
And a current .319/1.025 says otherwise. Stats are just like prospects, they're probabilities which are affected by other factors. They're not guarantees. Rafaela has out preformed the stats at every level. That doesn't just happen. I think people are looking at tools and ignoring skills and I certainly don't want to cut down his aggressiveness.. How do you “outperform your stats”? Also let’s maybe let him get to 100 AAA PA’s before we start citing his slash lines, he’s on a tear right now but it’s fairly obviously not sustainable if the approach hasn’t improved. That's what they said about him since last year. This is nothing new. If we're using BB rates, slash lines are equally fair game.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 20, 2023 21:21:52 GMT -5
I don't want to be a total buzzkill on Rafaela as I do think what he's doing is obviously exciting, and I know by no means are they identical players, but it's worth noting that JBJ hit really well in AAA as well before coming up (.275/.374/.469, 39 XBH in 80 games), while walking way more and striking out less. Again they're not 1-for-1 comparisons but just citing a slash line as evidence that he might be a better hitter than the scouting report indicates is only taking a very, very small portion of the picture. At the end of the day the approach concerns are going to manifest themselves at the MLB level and, likely, soon in AAA as well. Professional pitchers at this level of the game are too good to not take advantage of attacking a batter who will offer at bad pitches. It is super super encouraging that despite that Rafaela is capable of impacting the ball to such an extent, and for that reason I don't think he will perpetually be an offensive black hole, meaning he'll add more than enough value at the plate to make up for his deficiencies there and allow the glove to play. But I think anyone expecting him to be anything better than streaky at best is ignoring the obvious red flags that will be exposed sooner or later.
You can still take a lot away from this stretch, I'm not saying you can't. I just think that contextualizing it properly is acknowledging this is probably not who he is. He's striking out more than he has in 4 years and hitting for more power than he ever has, to use your words "that doesn't just happen", not at this level. It's a fantastic hot stretch, but it's gonna take a much larger sample to convince me that it's more than that given what he's shown in his time in the minors to date.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 20, 2023 21:22:28 GMT -5
How do you “outperform your stats”? Also let’s maybe let him get to 100 AAA PA’s before we start citing his slash lines, he’s on a tear right now but it’s fairly obviously not sustainable if the approach hasn’t improved. That's what they said about him since last year. This is nothing new. If we're using BB rates, slash lines are equally fair game. Walk rates and slash lines are absolutely not equally predictive, but to each their own.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 20, 2023 21:52:15 GMT -5
I don't want to be a total buzzkill on Rafaela as I do think what he's doing is obviously exciting, and I know by no means are they identical players, but it's worth noting that JBJ hit really well in AAA as well before coming up (.275/.374/.469, 39 XBH in 80 games), while walking way more and striking out less. Again they're not 1-for-1 comparisons but just citing a slash line as evidence that he might be a better hitter than the scouting report indicates is only taking a very, very small portion of the picture. At the end of the day the approach concerns are going to manifest themselves at the MLB level and, likely, soon in AAA as well. Professional pitchers at this level of the game are too good to not take advantage of attacking a batter who will offer at bad pitches. It is super super encouraging that despite that Rafaela is capable of impacting the ball to such an extent, and for that reason I don't think he will perpetually be an offensive black hole, meaning he'll add more than enough value at the plate to make up for his deficiencies there and allow the glove to play. But I think anyone expecting him to be anything better than streaky at best is ignoring the obvious red flags that will be exposed sooner or later. You can still take a lot away from this stretch, I'm not saying you can't. I just think that contextualizing it properly is acknowledging this is probably not who he is. He's striking out more than he has in 4 years and hitting for more power than he ever has, to use your words "that doesn't just happen", not at this level. It's a fantastic hot stretch, but it's gonna take a much larger sample to convince me that it's more than that given what he's shown in his time in the minors to date. You aren't buzzkilling me at all. I've seen about 85% of his ABs this year and I rarely use peripheral stats to make my opinion. The vast majority of posters and evaluators are the other way around. I've seen far more hot smashes that an infielder was only able to knock down go as infield hits than dribblers that he legs out. Rafaela will be the final arbitrator here.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 20, 2023 22:12:36 GMT -5
A walk!! His second in the last month! Legitimately more exciting than a homer. And to go with that 7-pitch AB... Hard disagree. Rafaela’s never going to walk much. Whether he’s a 4% BB guy or an 8% BB guy won’t make a meaningful difference for his overall value. But if he can drive the ball for extra base hits, leg out some cheap singles and not strike out much a la 80% of 2023 Duran, he’ll be a multi year MLB starter. You're right in that him drawing a dozen or so more walks over the course of the season won't markedly change his value. But he also needs to not get himself out by swinging at bad pitches out of the zone--which is what he does when he's slumping--and an ancillary value of that will be that he ends up walking more. He's not going to be a guy who succeeds because he's going to the plate intent on working deep counts, but when things go wrong it's when pitchers can work him out of the zone and he struggles to adjust.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 21, 2023 0:13:56 GMT -5
I don't want to be a total buzzkill on Rafaela as I do think what he's doing is obviously exciting, and I know by no means are they identical players, but it's worth noting that JBJ hit really well in AAA as well before coming up (.275/.374/.469, 39 XBH in 80 games), while walking way more and striking out less. Again they're not 1-for-1 comparisons but just citing a slash line as evidence that he might be a better hitter than the scouting report indicates is only taking a very, very small portion of the picture. At the end of the day the approach concerns are going to manifest themselves at the MLB level and, likely, soon in AAA as well. Professional pitchers at this level of the game are too good to not take advantage of attacking a batter who will offer at bad pitches. It is super super encouraging that despite that Rafaela is capable of impacting the ball to such an extent, and for that reason I don't think he will perpetually be an offensive black hole, meaning he'll add more than enough value at the plate to make up for his deficiencies there and allow the glove to play. But I think anyone expecting him to be anything better than streaky at best is ignoring the obvious red flags that will be exposed sooner or later. You can still take a lot away from this stretch, I'm not saying you can't. I just think that contextualizing it properly is acknowledging this is probably not who he is. He's striking out more than he has in 4 years and hitting for more power than he ever has, to use your words "that doesn't just happen", not at this level. It's a fantastic hot stretch, but it's gonna take a much larger sample to convince me that it's more than that given what he's shown in his time in the minors to date. I don't even think a JBJ comp is throwing cold water on it. He put up 14.4 WAR with an 82 wRC+. If Rafaela does that that's an awesome outcome. If he can sustain a 90 wRC+ a little longer then even better. It's still super early in AAA, like one more walk today adds a percentage point to his rate, so I'm not going to get worried about it yet, but he cannot walk at under 2.5% and be an MLB player, that just does not exist. Add: the walk rate is just a proxy for viewing the main problem which is that he swings at everything including chasing bad pitches, MLB pitchers are not going to miss as often as minor leaguers.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 21, 2023 8:11:09 GMT -5
A walk!! His second in the last month! Legitimately more exciting than a homer. And to go with that 7-pitch AB... Hard disagree. Rafaela’s never going to walk much. Whether he’s a 4% BB guy or an 8% BB guy won’t make a meaningful difference for his overall value. But if he can drive the ball for extra base hits, leg out some cheap singles and not strike out much a la 80% of 2023 Duran, he’ll be a multi year MLB starter. I disagree because a player who walks 8% of the time isn’t chasing nearly as much and is swinging at better pitches to hit. Last year 2 of the top 50 fWAR position players walked less than 6%. In 2021, 3 did. If you don’t walk at all there’s no safety net to keep you on base when you’re not swinging the bat well. It also limits your ceiling. When Baez was going absolutely nuts in 2018 his wRC+ was ‘only’ 131, and despite all his talent he’s only at 98 for his career. I think going from 4 to 8% would be a good sized bump for Rafaela’s production personally. I agree with your point that the BB% alone isn’t what will give him a starting role in the MLB, but it could take him from long term starter to all star. But I do think another avenue for offensive improvement would be bringing the K% down a bit, which with his hand-eye coordination and quick twitch could certainly happen.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 21, 2023 8:20:11 GMT -5
I don't think a top-50 position player is the standard here? Kyle Schwarber, who everyone seemed to think losing was the biggest strategic blunder since the sale of Babe Ruth, was 69th in position player fWAR at 2.6. That's a really nice player!
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Post by jmei on Jul 21, 2023 8:44:35 GMT -5
I absolutely agree that Rafaela needs to stop swinging at bad pitches, I just think walk rate is a bad proxy for his selectivity. He’s always going to be a free swinger. Given his profile at the plate, I would rather he put balls in play early in the count than take pitches for the sake of taking pitches (which will lead to more walks but also more strikeouts and weak contact). I am far more concerned about his increased strikeout rate than his minuscule walk rate in AAA.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 21, 2023 8:53:00 GMT -5
I absolutely agree that Rafaela needs to stop swinging at bad pitches, I just think walk rate is a bad proxy for his selectivity. He’s always going to be a free swinger. Given his profile at the plate, I would rather he put balls in play early in the count than take pitches for the sake of taking pitches (which will lead to more walks but also more strikeouts and weak contact). I am far more concerned about his increased strikeout rate than his minuscule walk rate in AAA. Last nights game was on local tv. So, I got to watch his at bats. Not sure what his setup was before. But, at the beginning of each ab he would lay his bat down over the plate so he had a good indicator of outside corner. He appeared to be conscious of not chasing. He is just 22 and missed a year of development due to Covid. It will certainly be fun following his development.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Jul 21, 2023 8:57:11 GMT -5
I absolutely agree that Rafaela needs to stop swinging at bad pitches, I just think walk rate is a bad proxy for his selectivity. He’s always going to be a free swinger. Given his profile at the plate, I would rather he put balls in play early in the count than take pitches for the sake of taking pitches (which will lead to more walks but also more strikeouts and weak contact). I am far more concerned about his increased strikeout rate than his minuscule walk rate in AAA. Why would any major league pitcher ever give him anything he can square up if he outright refuses to take a walk? There’s simply no way that a 3% walk rate is going to play, especially given his limited power.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 21, 2023 9:17:14 GMT -5
I absolutely agree that Rafaela needs to stop swinging at bad pitches, I just think walk rate is a bad proxy for his selectivity. He’s always going to be a free swinger. Given his profile at the plate, I would rather he put balls in play early in the count than take pitches for the sake of taking pitches (which will lead to more walks but also more strikeouts and weak contact). I am far more concerned about his increased strikeout rate than his minuscule walk rate in AAA. Why would any major league pitcher ever give him anything he can square up if he outright refuses to take a walk? There’s simply no way that a 3% walk rate is going to play, especially given his limited power. Huh? I know Worcester inflates this stuff (they have a .204 Iso as a team, which is stupid), but he had a .188 Iso at Portland in his age 21/22 seasons. His power is pretty good which is what makes his game work. He's not going to be like a 2018 Javier Baez where he hits so many homers that he's a star despite not getting on base, but he's got a good path as a 2022 Javier Baez where he's a frustrating-but-productive low-average, low-OBP, solid-SLG, excellent defense dude. While a bit of a boost in the walks would help, the bigger question to me is still the whiffs. If he strikes out 25% then he's probably fine. Again, he'll be frustrating as hell because he'll probably only be at like a .290 OBP if he's in that range, and the GameDay threads will definitely be cursing his worst at-bats, but he'll be a good contributor. At 30-35% K's? Ehhh, then we're in a problem range. EDIT: Also, the "3 percent walk rate" stuff is a little overblown. That's his walk rate in his first three weeks at Triple-A. He's generally be around 5%, which is much more playable.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Jul 21, 2023 10:20:36 GMT -5
Why would any major league pitcher ever give him anything he can square up if he outright refuses to take a walk? There’s simply no way that a 3% walk rate is going to play, especially given his limited power. Huh? I know Worcester inflates this stuff (they have a .204 Iso as a team, which is stupid), but he had a .188 Iso at Portland in his age 21/22 seasons. His power is pretty good which is what makes his game work. He's not going to be like a 2018 Javier Baez where he hits so many homers that he's a star despite not getting on base, but he's got a good path as a 2022 Javier Baez where he's a frustrating-but-productive low-average, low-OBP, solid-SLG, excellent defense dude. While a bit of a boost in the walks would help, the bigger question to me is still the whiffs. If he strikes out 25% then he's probably fine. Again, he'll be frustrating as hell because he'll probably only be at like a .290 OBP if he's in that range, and the GameDay threads will definitely be cursing his worst at-bats, but he'll be a good contributor. At 30-35% K's? Ehhh, then we're in a problem range. EDIT: Also, the "3 percent walk rate" stuff is a little overblown. That's his walk rate in his first three weeks at Triple-A. He's generally be around 5%, which is much more playable. Poor wording on my part. By "limited" I just meant "not a standout tool," which I'll stand by. I think he probably ends up with average power.
Worrying about the K-rate but not the walk-rate doesn't make sense to me, because these things work in concert. You can survive without one if you're good at the other, but almost nobody manages both consistently. Why give him a pass on one and hyperfixate on the other? If he learns to take a walk then he can afford to strike out more often.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 21, 2023 11:02:09 GMT -5
Short answer is that is my assessment of his skills. I don't really see him ever being an 8-10% walk rate guy, and I don't think he needs to be. If he is? Sure, that's great. But what I can see is him cutting the chase rate enough to get that contact rate where he can be successful... or I can also see that potentially not happening and it being the flaw in his game.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 21, 2023 13:53:29 GMT -5
I absolutely agree that Rafaela needs to stop swinging at bad pitches, I just think walk rate is a bad proxy for his selectivity. He’s always going to be a free swinger. Given his profile at the plate, I would rather he put balls in play early in the count than take pitches for the sake of taking pitches (which will lead to more walks but also more strikeouts and weak contact). I am far more concerned about his increased strikeout rate than his minuscule walk rate in AAA. I've actually been excited that he's kept his K-rate down upon promotion (so far). At 23.1% it's lower than at Greenville (24.4% in 209 PA) and only 2.4% higher (through only 78 PA) than it was at Worcester Portland this year (20.7%) - if he goes the next 2 games (9 PA) without a strikeout then he'll match the 20.7%, so it's not far off. If we look at YoY from 2022 to 2023, it's actually down from 21.6% to 21.2%. He's up a little from Portland, but seems to be right in the range of his normal strikeout numbers in an early AAA sample. Fingers-crossed it stays down and/or goes back to the ~20% level he had at Portland. (good points on the other stuff) ADD: for those particularly concerned with Rafaela's K-rate; on the year his K% is lower than top ten prospects: Mayer, Bleis, Yorke and Valdez
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Post by radiohix on Jul 21, 2023 15:09:54 GMT -5
Ronaldo Hernandez MiLB career walk rate before 2023: 5.4% Ronaldo Hernandez BB% in 2023: 13% There’s hope is all I’m saying 😅
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 21, 2023 15:27:16 GMT -5
I don't think a top-50 position player is the standard here? Kyle Schwarber, who everyone seemed to think losing was the biggest strategic blunder since the sale of Babe Ruth, was 69th in position player fWAR at 2.6. That's a really nice player! What can I say? I’m a dreamer A thought on his power: Rafaela isn’t huge, but he’s clearly athletic enough to hit for more power than his frame suggests. If he keeps lifting the ball/keeps his GB% in check, I think the slugging will come naturally. Pull side homers and turning singles into XBH like we’ve seen Duran do. During his cold spell in Portland he was hitting a ton of ground balls. People say his swing reminds them of Mookie. Throwing the chase stuff out the window, if Rafaela’s swing can get the ball off the ground like Mookie’s has in the majors, he will be in a good spot. Mookie is pretty much always <35% GB, >20% LD, and pulls the ball 40% of the time. Great way for a smaller guy to do big damage.
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Post by nomar on Jul 21, 2023 17:04:59 GMT -5
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jul 21, 2023 17:07:19 GMT -5
I get why fans do it, but I think generally speaking if a prospect turns into an average, everyday regular, that should be considered a success story. I know no one is impressed by average, but it's still really hard to be average, so if you have a farm system that produces average major league guys in their pre-arbitration years, you are setting yourself up for a lot of success because you can still leverage it elsewhere across your roster. And if Rafaela is actually an 80 grade CF, he could be one of the worst hitters in baseball and still probably be close to league average in terms of WAR. Myles Straw was the 2nd worst hitter in baseball in 2022 by wRC+, yet he still put up 1.9 fWAR because of his D, and the Guardians won 92 games and the division. Obviously you want him to be the best player he can be, but elite defensive players are exciting to me because of how much it raises their floor.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 21, 2023 17:19:19 GMT -5
I get why fans do it, but I think generally speaking if a prospect turns into an average, everyday regular, that should be considered a success story. I know no one is impressed by average, but it's still really hard to be average, so if you have a farm system that produces average major league guys in their pre-arbitration years, you are setting yourself up for a lot of success because you can still leverage it elsewhere across your roster. And if Rafaela is actually an 80 grade CF, he could be one of the worst hitters in baseball and still probably be close to league average in terms of WAR. Myles Straw was the 2nd worst hitter in baseball in 2022 by wRC+, yet he still put up 1.9 fWAR because of his D, and the Guardians won 92 games and the division. Obviously you want him to be the best player he can be, but elite defensive players are exciting to me because of how much it raises their floor. For a recent example of cost savings - Red Sox signed Kiké to 7mil/yr to be a super-utility guy. Even if he isn't a regular starter, Rafaela could free up significant payroll if he can simply fill that role (which will be very useful next season).
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 21, 2023 17:22:58 GMT -5
I get why fans do it, but I think generally speaking if a prospect turns into an average, everyday regular, that should be considered a success story. I know no one is impressed by average, but it's still really hard to be average, so if you have a farm system that produces average major league guys in their pre-arbitration years, you are setting yourself up for a lot of success because you can still leverage it elsewhere across your roster. And if Rafaela is actually an 80 grade CF, he could be one of the worst hitters in baseball and still probably be close to league average in terms of WAR. Myles Straw was the 2nd worst hitter in baseball in 2022 by wRC+, yet he still put up 1.9 fWAR because of his D, and the Guardians won 92 games and the division. Obviously you want him to be the best player he can be, but elite defensive players are exciting to me because of how much it raises their floor. For a recent example of cost savings - Red Sox signed Kiké to 7mil/yr to be a super-utility guy. Even if he isn't a regular starter, Rafaela could free up significant payroll if he can simply fill that role (which will be very useful next season). A young Hernandez type player making a rookie salary has always seemed to me to be Rafaelas likely end result. As you said a useful player with excellent versatility and defense, some pop with the bat but a guy with offensive flaws who is still extremely valuable. He's got upside to be even better but if that's all he ends up being it's still a win for the Sox.
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Post by adamgregory81 on Jul 21, 2023 21:38:01 GMT -5
This is a more general question, but I’ve considered it in connection with Raffy. Is the grade column intended to be 20/80 percent estimates? For example, is Raffy’s 4-6 “grade” intended to mean that, in an imaginary simulation of a billion outcomes for Raffy, in at least 20 percent of those simulations, Raffy is no worse than an impact everyday player; and in 80 percent of those simulations he is no worse than an up and down player?
I love this site. I read it more than Facebook or the news. And I love prospect analysis in general, I have subscriptions to BA, Fangraphs, the Athletic, and ESPN (I say that merely to preface and soften my cynical thoughts below.)
With that said, isn’t that a loaded measurement? That is, it’s clear to me that Raffy is at least a 4 in nearly 100 percent of the simulations; based on nothing more than superlative defense at multiple positions, he could play for more than a handful of teams right now.
Given he strikes out too much and can’t take a walk without being forced to by his mother-in-law, there are questions about his bat; but isn’t it crazy to view “6” as his ceiling?
If he replicated his combined numbers from this year, together with +, or ++ defense at one or more premium positions, that’s a frequent All-star - is that a 6? Feels like it’s higher. Is the argument that, at least 20 percent of the time, his bat will decline enough to keep him from being a league average hitter? If he replicates his AAA numbers, isn’t that an 8?
It feels like these grades would be better published with a graph. I assume that 4-6 is intended to reflect Raffy has a relatively high floor, but in doing so, I think it ignores that his floor is essentially T-bill risk free, and understates significant upside; but I don’t mean to say that like I’m right, it’s just a point I can’t ignore and thus wanted to raise.
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Post by kwodes on Jul 22, 2023 7:32:42 GMT -5
Seems like he's JBJ with more speed and power. I'd take that 100 times out of 100
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 22, 2023 7:52:13 GMT -5
Seems like he's JBJ with more speed and power. I'd take that 100 times out of 100 Will probably have a higher batting average, but lower OBP. JBJ was a .230 hitter whose OBP was usually a little above .300. Rafaela might be a .250 hitter with a .280 OBP. The big question is how well his aggressive approach will allow him to hit. Will it limit him to below .250 with a putrid OBP or will his hit tool still allow him to hit .250 - .275 and have merely a below average OBP instead of a putrid one?
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Post by kwodes on Jul 22, 2023 8:47:32 GMT -5
Seems like he's JBJ with more speed and power. I'd take that 100 times out of 100 Will probably have a higher batting average, but lower OBP. JBJ was a .230 hitter whose OBP was usually a little above .300. Rafaela might be a .250 hitter with a .280 OBP. The big question is how well his aggressive approach will allow him to hit. Will it limit him to below .250 with a putrid OBP or will his hit tool still allow him to hit .250 - .275 and have merely a below average OBP instead of a putrid one? my thoughts exactly. Their OPS should be pretty similar with rafaela supplying more power. I'm picturing almost a CF version of Javy Baez?
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