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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 16, 2023 20:05:19 GMT -5
Why wouldn't you want them to make the playoffs? Unless you're battling for the top pick in the draft (lottery aside), isn't missing the postseason and picking 15th the worst case scenario? As an entitled Patriots fan, I really don't care about a playoff entrance unless the team has the horses to actually win the title outright. Being happy just to get there always seemed like a 'small market' belief system (found in places like Jacksonville or Charlotte). Getting there in the NFL vs the MLB is a whole different ball game. Generally the best football team wins the super bowl. There's been plenty of years when arguably the best baseball didn't win and it was whoever was hot. So the sox making the playoffs is always good.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jun 16, 2023 20:30:31 GMT -5
As an entitled Patriots fan, I really don't care about a playoff entrance unless the team has the horses to actually win the title outright. Being happy just to get there always seemed like a 'small market' belief system (found in places like Jacksonville or Charlotte). Getting there in the NFL vs the MLB is a whole different ball game. Generally the best football team wins the super bowl. There's been plenty of years when arguably the best baseball didn't win and it was whoever was hot. So the sox making the playoffs is always good. Outside of the Cardinals one year, please give me a few examples. I'd definitely agree with your sentiment when it's comes to Hockey, but baseball isn't as luck based as you've asserted - at least according to studies on the topic. Edit: Here's one study that coincidentally supports my view 🤷🏽 superegoworld.com/blogs/the-world/luck-vs-skill-in-sport-examining-sports-statistics
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Post by fenwaydouble on Jun 16, 2023 20:49:08 GMT -5
Getting there in the NFL vs the MLB is a whole different ball game. Generally the best football team wins the super bowl. There's been plenty of years when arguably the best baseball didn't win and it was whoever was hot. So the sox making the playoffs is always good. Outside of the Cardinals one year, please give me a few examples. I'd definitely agree with your sentiment when it's comes to Hockey, but baseball isn't as luck based as you've asserted - at least according to studies on the topic. Edit: Here's one study that coincidentally supports my view 🤷🏽 superegoworld.com/blogs/the-world/luck-vs-skill-in-sport-examining-sports-statisticsActually that video specifically says baseball’s playoffs are very luck-based. The regular season less so, but only because they play a million games.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 16, 2023 21:00:59 GMT -5
Getting there in the NFL vs the MLB is a whole different ball game. Generally the best football team wins the super bowl. There's been plenty of years when arguably the best baseball didn't win and it was whoever was hot. So the sox making the playoffs is always good. Outside of the Cardinals one year, please give me a few examples. I'd definitely agree with your sentiment when it's comes to Hockey, but baseball isn't as luck based as you've asserted - at least according to studies on the topic. Edit: Here's one study that coincidentally supports my view 🤷🏽 superegoworld.com/blogs/the-world/luck-vs-skill-in-sport-examining-sports-statisticsThe front of this rotation right now is looking decent so honestly if the sox can get in the playoffs I think they'd maybe be alright. I don't really understand what your argument is tho. Obviously football success is much more predictable. The Red Sox sneaking in to the playoffs have a much better chance of making a run than the titans or jags winning a wild card and having to play the chiefs or bengals.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 16, 2023 21:44:09 GMT -5
7 times in last 25 years a wild card has won world series, going back to Marlins twice. You want to make playoffs every chance you get. Yet you don't want to keep missing them, while not being close, yet not bad enough for a great pick.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jun 16, 2023 22:41:19 GMT -5
The front of this rotation right now is looking decent so honestly if the sox can get in the playoffs I think they'd maybe be alright. I don't really understand what your argument is tho. Obviously football success is much more predictable. The Red Sox sneaking in to the playoffs have a much better chance of making a run than the titans or jags winning a wild card and having to play the chiefs or bengals. My last post on this: It's fine to have anecdotal arguments that aren't based on data... but what tends to happen (like here for example) is that the 'goal posts' begin to move from the original point being made. Bringing up wild card teams (not you specifically) into this off-topic discussion muddies the waters - as some wild card teams have had really high odds of winning the world series - which obfuscates my original position... which is that Teams at or below .500 in June (which the Red Sox are) do not a World Series-winning team make. Edit: Since 2010 the lowest W% of any championship club is 54% (Braves 2021). The average W% (removing outliers on both ends) of every championship winning team is 60%. For the Red Sox to repeat the Braves amazing feat of an 88-win championship team, they'd have to go a combined 53-39 the rest of the way for a 58% W% (Fangraphs projects a .508 W% the rest of the way, with the caveat of no trades etc.) To end up with the mean number of regular season wins for a champion, the Sox would have to go a combined 62-30 the rest of the way. Even if we ignore their 11.5% chance of making the playoffs in 2023 (Fangraphs), the Red Sox have to jockey with about 7 maybe 8 teams for only 3 Wild Card spots. For me, that appears more like lottery ticket odds - especially considering Cora-led teams are a mixed bag sans Mookie Betts.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 16, 2023 23:08:10 GMT -5
The front of this rotation right now is looking decent so honestly if the sox can get in the playoffs I think they'd maybe be alright. I don't really understand what your argument is tho. Obviously football success is much more predictable. The Red Sox sneaking in to the playoffs have a much better chance of making a run than the titans or jags winning a wild card and having to play the chiefs or bengals. Again, it's fine to have anecdotal arguments that aren't based on data... but what tends to happen (like in this thread) is that the 'goal posts' begin to get moved. You have an opinion, without data to back it up, and I disagree. Also, bringing up baseball wild card teams (not you specifically) muddies the waters even further as some wild card teams have had the best odds of winning the world series, which obfuscates my original position. Teams at or below .500 in June (which the Red Sox are) do not a World Series winning team make. My position is pretty simple - no anecdotes or parables needed. This made me curious...
Fangraphs odds to win the World Series on June 17:
Astros, 2022: 13% (40-24) Braves, 2021: 0.8% (31-35) Nationals, 2019: 2.3% (33-38) Red Sox, 2018: 10.3% (49-24) Astros, 2017: 16.3% (46-23) Cubs, 2016: 19.4% (45-20) Rpyals, 2015: 4.7% (37-25) Giants, 2014: 8.2% (44-28)
So two teams that were below .500 at this point of the season in the last 8 full seasons won the World Series. The other takeaway is that even a dominant team has less than a 1-in-5 chance of winning the World Series.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jun 16, 2023 23:57:58 GMT -5
Again, it's fine to have anecdotal arguments that aren't based on data... but what tends to happen (like in this thread) is that the 'goal posts' begin to get moved. You have an opinion, without data to back it up, and I disagree. Also, bringing up baseball wild card teams (not you specifically) muddies the waters even further as some wild card teams have had the best odds of winning the world series, which obfuscates my original position. Teams at or below .500 in June (which the Red Sox are) do not a World Series winning team make. My position is pretty simple - no anecdotes or parables needed. This made me curious... Fangraphs odds to win the World Series on June 17: Astros, 2022: 13% (40-24) Braves, 2021: 0.8% (31-35) Nationals, 2019: 2.3% (33-38) Red Sox, 2018: 10.3% (49-24) Astros, 2017: 16.3% (46-23) Cubs, 2016: 19.4% (45-20) Rpyals, 2015: 4.7% (37-25) Giants, 2014: 8.2% (44-28) So two teams that were below .500 at this point of the season in the last 8 full seasons won the World Series. The other takeaway is that even a dominant team has less than a 1-in-5 chance of winning the World Series.
The Braves are a complete outlier, imo. Though I'd add to your list the caveat that the road to the championship for the Nationals was paved with far fewer teams vying for Wild Card Spots. Not to mention the fact that the Washington Team was oft-injured in the first half of the season (similar to the 2023 Red Sox), but had Juan Soto (5.7 WAR), Trea Turner (4.2 WAR), and Anthony Rendon (6.8 WAR). Not to mention Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin at 6.5/5.6/4.7 WAR respectfully, in the rotation.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jun 17, 2023 0:04:10 GMT -5
Also my apologies for derailing this thread!
So...uhm... Ceddanne looked pretty good tonight. 3/4 with a walk and a 2B is not too bad.
Though the pitchers for Binghamton were less than stellar against Portland.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 19, 2023 21:42:59 GMT -5
Rafaela has gotten hot in the last couple weeks, hitting .378/.380/.667 since May 25th with four doubles and three homers.
On the one hand, it's hard to complain about a 1.047 OPS. On the other hand, I kind of want to complain about the OBP being only .002 higher than the AVG. (He has just two walks in 50 PA.)
Actually, it goes back to May 13. (I missed that, too, at first). And he has continued to rake.
.236 / .263 / .327 (114 PA) .353 / .399 / .531 (138 PA)
I think that's huge.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 25, 2023 14:48:20 GMT -5
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jun 25, 2023 15:00:17 GMT -5
The primary CF who actually CAN play SS. If he has ~3 decent months in Worcester could he break camp with the Sox next Spring? ETA: It might make sense as there is a non zero chance for him to be ROY and gain a draft pick versus delaying him to gain an extra year of control. One more thing to debate for the next 9 months
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Post by carmenfanzone on Jun 25, 2023 17:11:13 GMT -5
The primary CF who actually CAN play SS. If he has ~3 decent months in Worcester could he break camp with the Sox next Spring? ETA: It might make sense as there is a non zero chance for him to be ROY and gain a draft pick versus delaying him to gain an extra year of control. One more thing to debate for the next 9 months Assuming he doesn't totally bomb in AAA, I would assume the Red Sox let Kiki go in free agency and replace him with Ceddanne.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 25, 2023 17:28:33 GMT -5
The primary CF who actually CAN play SS. If he has ~3 decent months in Worcester could he break camp with the Sox next Spring? ETA: It might make sense as there is a non zero chance for him to be ROY and gain a draft pick versus delaying him to gain an extra year of control. One more thing to debate for the next 9 months Assuming he doesn't totally bomb in AAA, I would assume the Red Sox let Kiki go in free agency and replace him with Ceddanne. A successful 60 gm stint In Worcester, and that’s what I’m hoping.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,956
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jun 25, 2023 17:28:46 GMT -5
Half a season in AAA seems a bit thin for a kid who still has work to do on his plate discipline. No need to rush him for the '24 season. '25 is the year for the Red Sox to make a push. That might also give us a better shot at snagging the draft pick that maxwellsdemon mentioned - albeit a year later than if they call him next year.
On a selfish note, I'm going to see the Sea Dogs play in Manchester, NH next weekend and was looking forward to seeing him. Oh well, there's still Yorke, Mayer and OBP machine Hickey, who's a guy I've been watching since we drafted him in '21.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jun 25, 2023 17:33:13 GMT -5
Half a season in AAA seems a bit thin for a kid who still has work to do on his plate discipline. No need to rush him for the '24 season. '25 is the year for the Red Sox to make a push. That might also give us a better shot at snagging the draft pick that maxwellsdemon mentioned - albeit a year later than if they call him next year. On a selfish note, I'm going to see the Sea Dogs play in Manchester, NH next weekend and was looking forward to seeing him. Oh well, there's still Yorke, Mayer and OBP machine Hickey, who's a guy I've been watching since we drafted him in '21. Have fun at the stadium next week! Please let us know how Hickey is behind the dish - somewhere on the spectrum from 'meh' to 'God awful', I'd presume.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,956
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jun 25, 2023 18:26:56 GMT -5
Half a season in AAA seems a bit thin for a kid who still has work to do on his plate discipline. No need to rush him for the '24 season. '25 is the year for the Red Sox to make a push. That might also give us a better shot at snagging the draft pick that maxwellsdemon mentioned - albeit a year later than if they call him next year. On a selfish note, I'm going to see the Sea Dogs play in Manchester, NH next weekend and was looking forward to seeing him. Oh well, there's still Yorke, Mayer and OBP machine Hickey, who's a guy I've been watching since we drafted him in '21. Have fun at the stadium next week! Please let us know how Hickey is behind the dish - somewhere on the spectrum from 'meh' to 'God awful', I'd presume. I'll definitely let you know what my unrivaled scouting instincts tell me, which probably won't be anything more than it's a nice little ballpark and there's a decent deli up the street. (I was there once before.) If Hickey makes it to The Show, it'll be as a platoon bat. The SP.com writeup makes it clear that he's what we might call defensively challenged. But as with any prospect who's rated No. 18 in a system, there's a greater chance that he'll be waiting tables or changing oil and spark plugs five years from now. He got a bonus of $1M in a $307,000 slot, so somebody liked him. Keep hope alive!
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Post by incandenza on Jul 20, 2023 20:11:58 GMT -5
Ceddanne already 1/2 and now draws a walk. Took a 3-0 pitch that may or may not have been a strike on outside corner. Great eye😉 A walk!! His second in the last month! Legitimately more exciting than a homer. And to go with that 7-pitch AB...
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Post by jmei on Jul 20, 2023 20:23:37 GMT -5
Ceddanne already 1/2 and now draws a walk. Took a 3-0 pitch that may or may not have been a strike on outside corner. Great eye😉 A walk!! His second in the last month! Legitimately more exciting than a homer. And to go with that 7-pitch AB... Hard disagree. Rafaela’s never going to walk much. Whether he’s a 4% BB guy or an 8% BB guy won’t make a meaningful difference for his overall value. But if he can drive the ball for extra base hits, leg out some cheap singles and not strike out much a la 80% of 2023 Duran, he’ll be a multi year MLB starter.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 20, 2023 20:39:25 GMT -5
Maybe Rafela is simply a better hitter than most think.
Fast bat and excellent hand to eye coordination on both sides of the diamond.
That Pedroia fellow did well with that.
I also think it's insane to want him to walk more.
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Post by stevedillard on Jul 20, 2023 20:42:41 GMT -5
Mike Cameron II
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,664
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Post by cdj on Jul 20, 2023 20:43:30 GMT -5
Maybe Rafela is simply a better hitter than most think. Fast bat and excellent hand to eye coordination on both sides of the diamond. That Pedroia fellow did well with that. I also think it's insane to want him to walk more. Pedroia walked a lot more I don’t think people want him to walk as much as they don’t want him to get himself out on pitchers pitches off the plate that nobody can drive- and him walking shows he isn’t doing that
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 20, 2023 20:54:52 GMT -5
Maybe Rafela is simply a better hitter than most think. Fast bat and excellent hand to eye coordination on both sides of the diamond. That Pedroia fellow did well with that. I also think it's insane to want him to walk more. Pedroia walked a lot more I don’t think people want him to walk as much as they don’t want him to get himself out on pitchers pitches off the plate that nobody can drive- and him walking shows he isn’t doing that And a current .319/1.025 says otherwise. Stats are just like prospects, they're probabilities which are affected by other factors. They're not guarantees. Rafaela has out preformed the stats at every level. That doesn't just happen. I think people are looking at tools and ignoring skills and I certainly don't want to cut down his aggressiveness..
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Post by incandenza on Jul 20, 2023 21:07:12 GMT -5
A walk!! His second in the last month! Legitimately more exciting than a homer. And to go with that 7-pitch AB... Hard disagree. Rafaela’s never going to walk much. Whether he’s a 4% BB guy or an 8% BB guy won’t make a meaningful difference for his overall value. But if he can drive the ball for extra base hits, leg out some cheap singles and not strike out much a la 80% of 2023 Duran, he’ll be a multi year MLB starter. I don't really disagree, to a point. But this is describing a range of outcomes where the premise is already that he's a good enough hitter at the MLB level. My fear with Rafaela is that he just can't hang in there well enough as a hitter to hold down a spot as a starter. Like, JBJ is still a great defensive player; but he's accumulated -2 WAR over the past three seasons and it seems that his career is probably over because he just isn't a major league hitter anymore. Lacking access (or the motivatioin to dig for) more fine-grained data on Rafaela, I'm looking at BB rate and K rate as rough proxies for his "ability to hang in there" tool. In any case, we can certainly agree that a 1.200 OPS in his last 8 games at AAA isn't a bad sign, even if he only just took his second walk in a month.
And then, too, there's the fact that with a 90 wRC+ in the majors he surely has a long career as a starter... but with a 110 wRC+ he might be a 5-WAR star. Getting on base a little more often wouldn't hurt him to reach a pretty exciting ceiling.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 20, 2023 21:09:19 GMT -5
Pedroia walked a lot more I don’t think people want him to walk as much as they don’t want him to get himself out on pitchers pitches off the plate that nobody can drive- and him walking shows he isn’t doing that And a current .319/1.025 says otherwise. Stats are just like prospects, they're probabilities which are affected by other factors. They're not guarantees. Rafaela has out preformed the stats at every level. That doesn't just happen. I think people are looking at tools and ignoring skills and I certainly don't want to cut down his aggressiveness.. How do you “outperform your stats”? Also let’s maybe let him get to 100 AAA PA’s before we start citing his slash lines, he’s on a tear right now but it’s fairly obviously not sustainable if the approach hasn’t improved. I'd also argue that "tools" and "skills" are the exact same thing.
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