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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by Guidas on Aug 3, 2023 12:54:51 GMT -5
Or when Story comes back use him to plug the hole at 2nd base THIS YEAR. Doing that does not prevent him from starting in centerfield next year. Try him for a few games at 2nd in AAA and if he does well (as I suspect he would), he could take Arroyo's spot for the rest of this year. Because he is not likely to be a major upgrade at 2B or play there long term, and because he could still benefit from some more ABs at AAA. And @ theburn, Story will probably be back in like a matter of days. If we were going to bring up Rafaela before he was ready to plug that hole, why wait until now? If the goal is to replace Arroyo, I would much rather just call up Urias or play Reyes there more for now.
Urias cratered with Milwaukee this year to the point where they sent him to AAA despite the two years production before that. THEN they DFA'd him. Why would he be demonstrably better than Arroyo/Reyes/Chen/Guy Off the Street Who's Played Second?
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 3, 2023 12:59:43 GMT -5
Because he is not likely to be a major upgrade at 2B or play there long term, and because he could still benefit from some more ABs at AAA. And @ theburn, Story will probably be back in like a matter of days. If we were going to bring up Rafaela before he was ready to plug that hole, why wait until now? If the goal is to replace Arroyo, I would much rather just call up Urias or play Reyes there more for now.
Urias cratered with Milwaukee this year to the point where they sent him to AAA despite the two years production before that. THEN they DFA'd him. Why would he be demonstrably better than Arroyo/Reyes/Chen/Guy Off the Street Who's Played Second? They didn't DFA him they just traded him. He only played 20 games for MIL this year, and in that time ran a .179 BABIP. The projection systems all like him more moving forward than any of those guys. He also has his prior two full years in MLB as a track record better than any of those guys.
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Post by vokuhila on Aug 3, 2023 13:07:10 GMT -5
Urias hurt his hamstring opening day. He sucked when he was called up and was demoted then. Minor League splits for Urias: May .407 OPS June .641 OPS July .839 OPS You can make a decent case that he was still not 100% after being called up. But is on the verge of being healthy in AAA now. Don't be surprised to see him in Boston this season and not being horrible...and that would make him better than Arroyo
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Post by theburn on Aug 3, 2023 13:45:08 GMT -5
Or when Story comes back use him to plug the hole at 2nd base THIS YEAR. Doing that does not prevent him from starting in centerfield next year. Try him for a few games at 2nd in AAA and if he does well (as I suspect he would), he could take Arroyo's spot for the rest of this year. Because he is not likely to be a major upgrade at 2B or play there long term, and because he could still benefit from some more ABs at AAA.
And @ theburn, Story will probably be back in like a matter of days. If we were going to bring up Rafaela before he was ready to plug that hole, why wait until now?
If the goal is to replace Arroyo, I would much rather just call up Urias or play Reyes there more for now.
I mean, that's my question too. As far as what you say about Story being back in a matter of days: The team can't really afford a couple of days. This upcoming series against Toronto is pretty darn important, and Rafaela has made it clear he can help now. Why wait?
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Post by Guidas on Aug 3, 2023 14:01:27 GMT -5
Urias cratered with Milwaukee this year to the point where they sent him to AAA despite the two years production before that. THEN they DFA'd him. Why would he be demonstrably better than Arroyo/Reyes/Chen/Guy Off the Street Who's Played Second? They didn't DFA him they just traded him. He only played 20 games for MIL this year, and in that time ran a .179 BABIP. The projection systems all like him more moving forward than any of those guys. He also has his prior two full years in MLB as a track record better than any of those guys. My bad - I read he was DFA'd. I hope the projection systems are correct. Seems odd for Milwaukee, which craves offense, to cut loose a guy who was productive for them the last two years, and who's fighting injury this year, for a lottery ticket.
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Post by redsoxpride34 on Aug 3, 2023 14:13:52 GMT -5
Ideally, I'd like to see both Urias and Rafaella up playing 2B and CF respectively. This is why I strongly believed trading Duvall and/Turner at the deadline made a lot of sense. Rafaella in particular is essentially block for the rest of this season now. Both Turner and Duvall will almost certainly be gone after the season. If the goal is to develop the young core, why block that development with guys in their mid to late 30's who have no future on the team?
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Post by incandenza on Aug 3, 2023 14:40:12 GMT -5
They didn't DFA him they just traded him. He only played 20 games for MIL this year, and in that time ran a .179 BABIP. The projection systems all like him more moving forward than any of those guys. He also has his prior two full years in MLB as a track record better than any of those guys. My bad - I read he was DFA'd. I hope the projection systems are correct. Seems odd for Milwaukee, which craves offense, to cut loose a guy who was productive for them the last two years, and who's fighting injury this year, for a lottery ticket. They cut loose Hunter Renfroe after he gave them a 124 wRC+ season because he was going to cost $12 million. Likewise, Urias is making $5 million this year and that number will go up the next two seasons in arb, so they let him go for what they could get for him.
By the same token, it's not a trivial expense for the Red Sox to take on that salary when they have cheaper options in Arroyo, Reyes, and Chang, plus the cost of giving up Blalock, so they must believe in his track record as a 2 WAR/500 PA player since 2021.
(I am reminded that you sometimes seem to value players less simply by virtue of the fact that the Red Sox acquired them, on the grounds that their previous team wouldn't have let them go if they were worth what the Red Sox thought they were. For instance, when Justin Turner got a bigger contract from the Red Sox than JD Martinez got from the Dodgers, you took that as a sign that the Dodgers had outwitted the Red Sox rather than an indication that it was the Red Sox, rather than the Dodgers, who were upgrading at DH.)
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 3, 2023 15:00:40 GMT -5
They cut loose Hunter Renfroe after he gave them a 124 wRC+ season because he was going to cost $12 million. Likewise, Urias is making $5 million this year and that number will go up the next two seasons in arb, so they let him go for what they could get for him. By the same token, it's not a trivial expense for the Red Sox to take on that salary when they have cheaper options in Arroyo, Reyes, and Chang, plus the cost of giving up Blalock, so they must believe in his track record as a 2 WAR/500 PA player since 2021. (I am reminded that you sometimes seem to value players less simply by virtue of the fact that the Red Sox acquired them, on the grounds that their previous team wouldn't have let them go if they were worth what the Red Sox thought they were. For instance, when Justin Turner got a bigger contract from the Red Sox than JD Martinez got from the Dodgers, you took that as a sign that the Dodgers had outwitted the Red Sox rather than an indication that it was the Red Sox, rather than the Dodgers, who were upgrading at DH.)
Just want to point out, Urias is at 4.7mil this year and his salary is unlikely to go up much next year due to his lack of playing time and success in the majors this year. Unless he goes on a tear, he's looking at less than 5mil. 5mil next year is substantial, but the prorated ~1.6mil this year is not, and they can release him this off-season if they don't want to pay him. As widely discussed, Blalock is rule-5 eligible and unlikely to be protected. I like the move very much, but it's a flyer move with very little downside. I'm all for getting Rafaela some playing time at 2b in the event he gets promoted.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 3, 2023 15:12:40 GMT -5
They cut loose Hunter Renfroe after he gave them a 124 wRC+ season because he was going to cost $12 million. Likewise, Urias is making $5 million this year and that number will go up the next two seasons in arb, so they let him go for what they could get for him. By the same token, it's not a trivial expense for the Red Sox to take on that salary when they have cheaper options in Arroyo, Reyes, and Chang, plus the cost of giving up Blalock, so they must believe in his track record as a 2 WAR/500 PA player since 2021. (I am reminded that you sometimes seem to value players less simply by virtue of the fact that the Red Sox acquired them, on the grounds that their previous team wouldn't have let them go if they were worth what the Red Sox thought they were. For instance, when Justin Turner got a bigger contract from the Red Sox than JD Martinez got from the Dodgers, you took that as a sign that the Dodgers had outwitted the Red Sox rather than an indication that it was the Red Sox, rather than the Dodgers, who were upgrading at DH.)
Just want to point out, Urias is at 4.7mil this year and his salary is unlikely to go up much next year due to his lack of playing time and success in the majors this year. Unless he goes on a tear, he's looking at less than 5mil. 5mil next year is substantial, but the prorated ~1.6mil this year is not, and they can release him this off-season if they don't want to pay him. As widely discussed, Blalock is rule-5 eligible and unlikely to be protected. I like the move very much, but it's a flyer move with very little downside. I'm all for getting Rafaela some playing time at 2b in the event he gets promoted. Doesn't arb salary go up by like 20% as a matter of course from year to year even when a guy's performance has been bad? I'd expect a ~$6 million salary for Urias in 2024.
I also am very skeptical that they just plan to non-tender him. That's an option that limits their downside risk, as you say, but when a team with a gaping hole at 2B trades for a second baseman who's been a 2 WAR/year player over the past couple of seasons, Occam's razor says they're getting that guy to be their second baseman.
At a glance, Urias also looks to me like a better option than any of the free agents available - all of whom will, of course, be paid free agent wages.
I'm talking myself into liking this trade kind of a lot, actually.
(Sorry, mods, for the tangent; if I knew an easy way to move this comment to the proper thread I'd do it.)
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 3, 2023 16:50:17 GMT -5
They didn't DFA him they just traded him. He only played 20 games for MIL this year, and in that time ran a .179 BABIP. The projection systems all like him more moving forward than any of those guys. He also has his prior two full years in MLB as a track record better than any of those guys. My bad - I read he was DFA'd. I hope the projection systems are correct. Seems odd for Milwaukee, which craves offense, to cut loose a guy who was productive for them the last two years, and who's fighting injury this year, for a lottery ticket. They’re a poverty franchise, not that odd
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 3, 2023 17:37:35 GMT -5
Doesn't arb salary go up by like 20% as a matter of course from year to year even when a guy's performance has been bad? I'd expect a ~$6 million salary for Urias in 2024. I also am very skeptical that they just plan to non-tender him. That's an option that limits their downside risk, as you say, but when a team with a gaping hole at 2B trades for a second baseman who's been a 2 WAR/year player over the past couple of seasons, Occam's razor says they're getting that guy to be their second baseman.
At a glance, Urias also looks to me like a better option than any of the free agents available - all of whom will, of course, be paid free agent wages. I'm talking myself into liking this trade kind of a lot, actually. (Sorry, mods, for the tangent; if I knew an easy way to move this comment to the proper thread I'd do it.)
When an arbitration player misses a season they generally receive an identical contract the next season. A recent example of this is Mike Soroka, who agreed to 2.8mil in 2021, 2022 and 2023 as he was injured for most of 2021 and 2022 (w/6 minor league starts). Urias has accumulated -0.2 fWAR over 68 PA, so any pay raise (not a certainty) would be minimal. I'm not saying they plan to non-tender him, I highly doubt that's the plan, but the option of doing that is one of the bright spots of the trade. Right now there isn't a clear 2024 2nd baseman, but if the Red Sox acquired a bat-first 2nd baseman who is better than Urias, and want a glove first utility infielder, having the option to save the ~5mil is a bonus. I like the trade as well. Minimal upside, but for a young-ish player at a position of need with 2 more years of control. 2024 2nd base FA/trade options don't look good. One nice thing about Rafaela - they can make him the 5th OF and let him be the 4th IF behind a player like Urias/Arroyo as well (for defense). Then play him all over if he's hitting.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 3, 2023 18:17:01 GMT -5
I came here to read about Rafaela... nothing (much) on this page.
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briam
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Post by briam on Aug 3, 2023 18:27:21 GMT -5
Another bomb for Rafaela. Is Tim Anderson looking like an offensive ceiling for him.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 3, 2023 20:03:51 GMT -5
Because he is not likely to be a major upgrade at 2B or play there long term, and because he could still benefit from some more ABs at AAA.
And @ theburn, Story will probably be back in like a matter of days. If we were going to bring up Rafaela before he was ready to plug that hole, why wait until now?
If the goal is to replace Arroyo, I would much rather just call up Urias or play Reyes there more for now.
I mean, that's my question too. As far as what you say about Story being back in a matter of days: The team can't really afford a couple of days. This upcoming series against Toronto is pretty darn important, and Rafaela has made it clear he can help now. Why wait? Has he though? He's only had 109 PA at AAA and still has a lot to work on offensively per this site. If slash lines were what mattered, Franchy, Dalbec, Danny Santana, etc. would be carrying us into the playoffs right now... Rafaela should be an upgrade with the glove, but who knows with the bat. It could easily be worse than Arroyo.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Aug 3, 2023 21:56:13 GMT -5
I mean, that's my question too. As far as what you say about Story being back in a matter of days: The team can't really afford a couple of days. This upcoming series against Toronto is pretty darn important, and Rafaela has made it clear he can help now. Why wait? Has he though? He's only had 109 PA at AAA and still has a lot to work on offensively per this site. If slash lines were what mattered, Franchy, Dalbec, Danny Santana, etc. would be carrying us into the playoffs right now... Rafaela should be an upgrade with the glove, but who knows with the bat. It could easily be worse than Arroyo. About a page ago you argued that the Red Sox should just pencil Rafaela in as their starting centerfielder next year. If you are not sure he can hit in the majors now, how are you sure he will hit in the majors next year if you do not call him up this year and get some idea? Your assumption that he is spending the rest of this year at AAA working on his weakness as a hitter is not accurate based on everything i have read on this site. His weakness is that he chases too may pitches outside the strike zone. To work on that I understand the Sox had him start the year at AA and restricted the number of pitches they allowed him to swing at during an at bat to try to curb his swinging at bad pitches. He got off to a slow start in AA. At some point the Sox dropped the idea and just told him to play. He started hitting in AA and hasn't stopped in AAA. But he isn't, from what I've read, actively working on not swinging at bad pitches. He is just being Rafaela. Could he be a bust as a hitter in the majors. It is possible. But you won't know until you try whether it is this year or next year. A couple of years ago, i was in Florida and watched him play in a weeks straight worth of spring training games. In every single game, he made some kind of difference. Sometimes with his glove. Sometimes with his arm. Sometimes with his base running. And sometimes with his bat. Arroyo doesn't do that. I want to make the playoffs this year. Rafaela, after a few games at 2nd at AAA to get reacquainted with the position, is more likely to help make the playoffs than Arroyo. Just like bringing Bogaerts up and sticking him at 3rd helped us a few years ago. Unfortunately, i doubt this front office, which doesn't seem to have any sense of urgency or even belief in the team's ability, will bring him up before the rosters expand in September and by then the Sox may already be out of the playoff hunt.
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ephus
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Post by ephus on Aug 3, 2023 22:28:19 GMT -5
Y’all we need to all take a couple steps back with our Rafaela takes.
On one side, we have people clamoring for him to come up, get his own shoe, and be the starting shortstop from Day 1, and these folks are apparently very much willing to see the kid figure it out in the middle of a playoff race.
On the other side, we have folks that are apparently incapable of giving him any dap at all, and are literally discounting home runs because they are hit in Worcester (even if they are hit in Syracuse) as if the kid has any say what park he plays in.
How about a tweak. This is a young man who is doing some very exciting things at AAA, but also has things to work on. Maybe a cup of coffee in September to give him a taste (and likely magnify what he needs to work on this winter); so he can come into camp with a chance to compete.
I have no doubt that we all want to see him be successful, so let’s all breathe, enjoy what he’s doing in Worcester - and accept that with some work he could do much, much more. Finally, let’s appreciate that we have more than few guys in the system to be excited about.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 3, 2023 22:37:43 GMT -5
Has he though? He's only had 109 PA at AAA and still has a lot to work on offensively per this site. If slash lines were what mattered, Franchy, Dalbec, Danny Santana, etc. would be carrying us into the playoffs right now... Rafaela should be an upgrade with the glove, but who knows with the bat. It could easily be worse than Arroyo. About a page ago you argued that the Red Sox should just pencil Rafaela in as their starting centerfielder next year. If you are not sure he can hit in the majors now, how are you sure he will hit in the majors next year if you do not call him up this year and get some idea? Your assumption that he is spending the rest of this year at AAA working on his weakness as a hitter is not accurate based on everything i have read on this site. His weakness is that he chases too may pitches outside the strike zone. To work on that I understand the Sox had him start the year at AA and restricted the number of pitches they allowed him to swing at during an at bat to try to curb his swinging at bad pitches. He got off to a slow start in AA. At some point the Sox dropped the idea and just told him to play. He started hitting in AA and hasn't stopped in AAA. But he isn't, from what I've read, actively working on not swinging at bad pitches. He is just being Rafaela. Could he be a bust as a hitter in the majors. It is possible. But you won't know until you try whether it is this year or next year. A couple of years ago, i was in Florida and watched him play in a weeks straight worth of spring training games. In every single game, he made some kind of difference. Sometimes with his glove. Sometimes with his arm. Sometimes with his base running. And sometimes with his bat. Arroyo doesn't do that. I want to make the playoffs this year. Rafaela, after a few games at 2nd at AAA to get reacquainted with the position, is more likely to help make the playoffs than Arroyo. Just like bringing Bogaerts up and sticking him at 3rd helped us a few years ago. Unfortunately, i doubt this front office, which doesn't seem to have any sense of urgency or even belief in the team's ability, will bring him up before the rosters expand in September and by then the Sox may already be out of the playoff hunt. Yes, exactly. At that point he will have had two more months at AAA under his belt. That's ~45 more games, which should get him up over 300 PA at AAA. If he really struggles over that stretch and that carries over into Spring Training '24, sure, he might need more time. If not, though, he's earned an extended shot to take the CF job. I don't think the "the team is not teaching him anything" / "he is not learning anything" argument holds water. Not giving him a swing limit in an AB does not imply not working on his approach. You are expecting too much from a minor leaguer after a call up. Many rookies struggle for a while right out of the gate, or are hot for a couple weeks until pitchers adjust and *then* they struggle for a while. The benefit of giving him a long leash at CF in 2024 is that he has so much defensive value there he will still contribute even if the bat is a black hole for a while. I am not convinced he can provide enough value at 2B to represent much of an upgrade, and he would have to be a clear upgrade to rush him.
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Post by bosoxnation on Aug 3, 2023 22:46:47 GMT -5
Y’all we need to all take a couple steps back with our Rafaela takes. On one side, we have people clamoring for him to come up, get his own shoe, and be the starting shortstop from Day 1, and these folks are apparently very much willing to see the kid figure it out in the middle of a playoff race. On the other side, we have folks that are apparently incapable of giving him any dap at all, and are literally discounting home runs because they are hit in Worcester (even if they are hit in Syracuse) as if the kid has any say what park he plays in. How about a tweak. This is a young man who is doing some very exciting things at AAA, but also has things to work on. Maybe a cup of coffee in September to give him a taste (and likely magnify what he needs to work on this winter); so he can come into camp with a chance to compete. I have no doubt that we all want to see him be successful, so let’s all breathe, enjoy what he’s doing in Worcester - and accept that with some work he could do much, much more. Finally, let’s appreciate that we have more than few guys in the system to be excited about. My point last week was to start him at SS next year Story to 2nd then in 2025 Mayer to SS, Rafaela to CF, Duran to LF. Yoshida to DH. Or we can wait for an injury in the OF next season and call him up then but my point was more of getting him full time ABs in 24 so 25 he hits the ground running. Nobody is out here not enjoying what he’s doing. We just have 5 OFs right now so there’s no reason to call him up and when you decide to put Story back at SS you create another issue of pulling him off SS for 2nd and who’s going to play 2nd? Is whoever plays 2nd next year going to be smarter then Rafaela getting full time ABs at SS. Only other thing that could happen is Rafaela in RF and Dugie gone. I really hope that’s not the idea.
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Post by keninten on Aug 3, 2023 22:50:16 GMT -5
I won`t get my hopes too high but I see him hitting like Manny Sanguillen. You know the guy who got traded for a manager.
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ephus
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Post by ephus on Aug 3, 2023 23:14:48 GMT -5
Y’all we need to all take a couple steps back with our Rafaela takes. On one side, we have people clamoring for him to come up, get his own shoe, and be the starting shortstop from Day 1, and these folks are apparently very much willing to see the kid figure it out in the middle of a playoff race. On the other side, we have folks that are apparently incapable of giving him any dap at all, and are literally discounting home runs because they are hit in Worcester (even if they are hit in Syracuse) as if the kid has any say what park he plays in. How about a tweak. This is a young man who is doing some very exciting things at AAA, but also has things to work on. Maybe a cup of coffee in September to give him a taste (and likely magnify what he needs to work on this winter); so he can come into camp with a chance to compete. I have no doubt that we all want to see him be successful, so let’s all breathe, enjoy what he’s doing in Worcester - and accept that with some work he could do much, much more. Finally, let’s appreciate that we have more than few guys in the system to be excited about. My point last week was to start him at SS next year Story to 2nd then in 2025 Mayer to SS, Rafaela to CF, Duran to LF. Yoshida to DH. Or we can wait for an injury in the OF next season and call him up then but my point was more of getting him full time ABs in 24 so 25 he hits the ground running. Nobody is out here not enjoying what he’s doing. We just have 5 OFs right now so there’s no reason to call him up and when you decide to put Story back at SS you create another issue of pulling him off SS for 2nd and who’s going to play 2nd? Is whoever plays 2nd next year going to be smarter then Rafaela getting full time ABs at SS. Only other thing that could happen is Rafaela in RF and Dugie gone. I really hope that’s not the idea. Yes, I think we are thinking along the same lines. To me there is a gulf between calling him up right now and letting him know that he shoukd come in to camp ready to show he belongs in Boston.
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Post by terriblehondo on Aug 4, 2023 5:29:18 GMT -5
I won`t get my hopes too high but I see him hitting like Manny Sanguillen. You know the guy who got traded for a manager. If he hits like Manny and plays CF as well as reported then the Sox will have an All Star CF for a long time to come.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 4, 2023 6:19:00 GMT -5
I'm surprised to see Rafaela get zero games at 2b and RF in the last couple of years, since 2b is a big question mark, and there is no RF under contract after 2024, and he has a better arm than Duran. Sure he's played a couple games in the past and it's likely that he could learn fast. But why not get him some looks at the ball coming at him at those angles?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 4, 2023 6:28:23 GMT -5
I'm surprised to see Rafaela get zero games at 2b and RF win the last couple of years, since 2b is a big question mark, and there is no RF under contract after 2024, and he has a better arm than Duran. Sure he's played a couple games in the past and it's likely that he could learn fast. But why not get him some looks at the ball coming at him at those angles? My 2 cents is that there's no way I'd want him down on the defensive spectrum from SS & CF. Kiermaier, Pillar & JBJ would all have been great RFers but...
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 4, 2023 6:38:53 GMT -5
I'm surprised to see Rafaela get zero games at 2b and RF win the last couple of years, since 2b is a big question mark, and there is no RF under contract after 2024, and he has a better arm than Duran. Sure he's played a couple games in the past and it's likely that he could learn fast. But why not get him some looks at the ball coming at him at those angles? My 2 cents is that there's no way I'd want him down on the defensive spectrum from SS & CF. Kiermaier, Pillar & JBJ would all have been great RFers but... JBJ played games in RF in his first three years and later. 182 games as a RF. Fenway is different. Playing RF is like playing CF.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Aug 4, 2023 8:00:41 GMT -5
There are still more balls hit to CF than RF even if Fenways RF is huge. And you still need a good arm in center.
If they were both playing, I'd put Duran in RF and Rafaela in CF.
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