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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 19, 2024 12:19:08 GMT -5
Out of curiosity, if you guys hear a great song on the radio, do you wait to decide if you like it until after you analyze the sheet music ?
He's adjusted to the speed of the game, he's a rookie. It's as simple as that. He also did the same last year around May 10thish.
I'll be enjoying watching him play baseball. It's also that simple.
ADD: Trading Rafaela or Duran because one hurts the other's WAR is just pure dumb, I hope you were joking because that is just plain stupid.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 19, 2024 12:32:07 GMT -5
Out of curiosity, if you guys hear a great song on the radio, do you wait to decide if you like it until after you analyze the sheet music ? He's adjusted to the speed of the game, he's a rookie. It's as simple as that. He also did the same last year around May 10thish. I'll be enjoying watching him play baseball. It's also that simple. ADD: Trading Rafaela or Duran because one hurts the other's WAR is just pure dumb, I hope you were joking because that is just plain stupid. When a great song plays on the radio, do you turn it down to tell everyone how smart you are for liking the song?
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 19, 2024 12:39:38 GMT -5
I mean it’s just an awful comparison. If I was listening to music from the perspective of a label trying to understand if it was likely to stand the test of time or keep selling records or whatever yeah I’d analyze it under the hood too.
No one is saying they aren’t enjoying the productivity from Rafaela right now, but how sustainable it is is a different conversation, and I don’t see the point in being condescending towards people interested in having that conversation.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
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Post by nomar on Jun 19, 2024 12:44:52 GMT -5
Every single industry wants as much data/analysis as they can get, and our ability to pull and process data only improves over time. Complaining about people being willing to take the time to form informed opinions and share them, especially in a setting like this where that is the intent, is so dumb.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 19, 2024 12:55:07 GMT -5
Thank God the Red Sox don't suffer from paralysis by amateur analysis or Rafaela would be in Woosta as we speak.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 19, 2024 13:20:59 GMT -5
Here's a quick answer. .615/.643/.846 is not sustainable but has nothing to do with BABIP or K/BB ratios. It only has to do with actual history, it's never been done.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Jun 19, 2024 13:31:40 GMT -5
Here's a quick answer. .615/.643/.846 is not sustainable but has nothing to do with BABIP or K/BB ratios. It only has to do with actual history, it's never been done. Just want to take a minute to bask in the willful ignorance on display here. Genuinely inspiring.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 19, 2024 13:32:32 GMT -5
Here's a quick answer. .615/.643/.846 is not sustainable but has nothing to do with BABIP or K/BB ratios. It only has to do with actual history, it's never been done. Just want to take a minute to bask in the willful ignorance on display here. Genuinely inspiring. Thank you.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jun 19, 2024 14:01:55 GMT -5
Its crazy how ionly a couple weeks ago I was hearing how CR had no surplus value. And how it was a poor signing. I do t see how he isnt a minimum 2 war played going forward. And very well could be 4-5. Even with the high K and low walk totals. Inwant to see CR 9 and JD 1 for many years
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,845
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Post by shagworthy on Jun 19, 2024 14:07:11 GMT -5
(Grabs Popcorn)
Everybody is getting chippy in here. I'm glad he's succeeding, I expected bumps in the road and there were some, but the kid is a joy to watch, he plays every day with a big smile on his face and some youthful reckless abandon. For an old fart like me, it's a nice thing to see.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jun 19, 2024 14:18:55 GMT -5
I think he’s a player and as a rookie it looks like 20-25 hr power. He is going to have great defense in cf.
The extension looks better and better. The great sign is he is continuing his trend of improving at every level after an adjustment period
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Post by Smittyw on Jun 19, 2024 14:19:39 GMT -5
I think everyone is enjoying and excited about Ceddanne's recent success, but can we please not revisit the thing from last year where if anyone questions any aspect of his game in any way, someone gets unreasonably offended?
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Post by pappyman99 on Jun 19, 2024 14:36:08 GMT -5
I think everyone is enjoying and excited about Ceddanne's recent success, but can we please not revisit the thing from last year where if anyone questions any aspect of his game in any way, someone gets unreasonably offended? Agreed but it is at least nice knowing that the player we have signed for a while to a utility player contract has what’s looks like safe 1 WAR floor for now
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Jun 19, 2024 14:38:44 GMT -5
It would have been a real shame if he had a good year this year and then signed someplace else this winter.
Oh wait..
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Post by RedSoxStats on Jun 19, 2024 14:55:00 GMT -5
In June, Rafaela has the highest whiff rate, 2nd highest chase rate, 2nd highest BABIP in MLB.
He has 12 ground ball singles, 5 weakly hit singles, 1 weakly hit double, 2 singles, 2 doubles, and a home run.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 19, 2024 14:58:39 GMT -5
In June, Rafaela has the highest whiff rate, 2nd highest chase rate, 2nd highest BABIP in MLB. He has 12 ground ball singles, 5 weakly hit singles, 1 weakly hit double, 2 singles, 2 doubles, and a home run. Yeah, but have you watched him do it? Didn’t think so, amateur.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 19, 2024 15:05:03 GMT -5
In June, Rafaela has the highest whiff rate, 2nd highest chase rate, 2nd highest BABIP in MLB. He has 12 ground ball singles, 5 weakly hit singles, 1 weakly hit double, 2 singles, 2 doubles, and a home run. Not great! But *if* a switch flipped, it happened on June 12th, not June 1st. I mentioned above that I thought he looked as bad as ever only about a week ago, and he hit only .200/.222/.200 from 6/1-6/11. So the question is whether something changed in the last week. Like maybe it's not a coincidence that the home run and three doubles all came within the last week.
I realize that's a really small sample size, but that's exactly why I was curious to see if there's a real change in approach underlying the outcomes.
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Post by rickasadoorian on Jun 19, 2024 15:54:51 GMT -5
Sincere question: how real is Rafaela's turn-around?
So far it's only been a week. Through 6/11 he was hitting .210/.237/.358. In the last week: .615/.643/.846. That's with a .789 BABIP which... I'm going to say is unsustainable. Still, the results have been good.
Merloni mentioned during the broadcast that he had shortened up his swing, which was certainly something that Youkilis, Middlebrooks, and Merloni had all been saying he needed to do for a while. Then they asked Rafaela in the post-game interview if he had made any adjustments and he said no, instead attributing his success to people around him inflating his ego. But maybe he was just being cagey.
Has his quality of contact actually improved in the last week? Is he in fact being more selective? Chasing less? Handling velocity better? What's his overall xBABIP? These are things I would look up if I knew how.
It might just be part of who he is. JBJ would go on stretches where he'd look like Babe Ruth for 150 PA, and immediately follow that up with 150 PA where he looked like the worst offensive regular in the league. He'd do this on a routine basis. Ceddanne has been a pretty streaky hitter the last few years. He goes on some insane tears. His BAbip for the year is now .318. Factoring in his speed, you'd expect a better than normal BAbip. Looking at the whole picture, this is about where I expected him to be for the year. Right around a 90-100 OPS+/wRC+. I wouldn't necessarily call it a turn around, more so progressing to the norm.
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brisox
Rookie
SoxProspects Veteran
Posts: 89
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Post by brisox on Jun 19, 2024 19:59:57 GMT -5
Out of curiosity, if you guys hear a great song on the radio, do you wait to decide if you like it until after you analyze the sheet music ? He's adjusted to the speed of the game, he's a rookie. It's as simple as that. He also did the same last year around May 10thish. I'll be enjoying watching him play baseball. It's also that simple. ADD: Trading Rafaela or Duran because one hurts the other's WAR is just pure dumb, I hope you were joking because that is just plain stupid. When a great song plays on the radio, do you turn it down to tell everyone how smart you are for liking the song? There is no “right” way to enjoy the game or a player, but I think it is hysterical to think of some record exec sitting in a room listening to Van Halen and yelling “ this will never work, too many 16th notes! “
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 162
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Post by tedf on Jun 19, 2024 20:37:25 GMT -5
Not saying it means anything, but his exit velocities have been creeping up. Since the Detroit series the average has jumped about 5 mph. Big difference between 85 and 90.
No clue what he might have been doing differently , though, his plate discpline was awful until this week (as noted above).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 20, 2024 7:34:24 GMT -5
If his EVs are creeping up along with an increase in opposite field ground singles then he's hitting more line drives to the pull side. That's a skill, it's observing how he's being pitched and reacting accordingly.
Maybe the Sox knew what they were doing when they extended him.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 20, 2024 11:51:39 GMT -5
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Post by sublime on Jun 20, 2024 12:23:01 GMT -5
FYI your link is no good.
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 162
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Post by tedf on Jun 20, 2024 15:26:23 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Jun 20, 2024 15:41:49 GMT -5
Strange - lots of analysis from Fatse here. Not sure why he isn't just enjoying Rafaela's performance as you would a song on the radio.
Anyway, good stuff about both his mechanics and plate approach. Doesn't really make sense of the fact that he suddenly became great on June 12th after being terrible before that, but maybe some of that is just statistical fluke.
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