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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jun 20, 2024 16:15:38 GMT -5
I'm in no position to pass judgement on C-Dan RBela's mechanics or underlying stats etc. However, I am a believer in seeing what is in front of you and in this case what is front of us is close to league average (obp 279 vs 309, ops 687 vs 701) while rising up from the sub Mendoza black hole of his slow start. There is also his personal history of starting slowly when promoted before figuring out the new level.
After rereading some of the rose colored glasses takes (like mine maybe) and some of the doom and gloom trade him now takes, it's interesting that he's currently arrived at the middle ground. Maybe this is what he will be (JBJ with less fat tails) which, given his baserunning, defense and flexibility is certainly worth 1+WAR a year that will pay his contract. But if we knew then his OPS would be within 2% of league average in his along with stellar D much angst could have been avoided. (but where's the fun in that?)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 20, 2024 16:33:21 GMT -5
His chase rate on pitches outside the zone can be very easily divided into segments.
48.2% -- Opening day to April 12 (85 pitches)
35.5% -- April 13 to May 15 (197 pitches)
57.1% -- May 16 to June 11 (140 pitches)
28.1% -- June 12 to now (57 pitches)
Merloni pointed out the last change multiple times.
The interesting thing here is that the dramatic reduction happened after he started hitting. So the next breakdown will be in-play percentage. What I saw is Rafaela discovering that he can hit pitches a bit outside the zone to empty spots on the ground (his actual vs. expected numbers on grounders in this stretch are insane). If so, the question is whether he actually has a "hit 'em where they ain't" sklll, or is just exploiting an outdated set of defensive positions. I suspect mostly the latter, but some of both might be happening.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 20, 2024 16:50:58 GMT -5
His chase rate on pitches outside the zone can be very easily divided into segments.
48.2% -- Opening day to April 12 (85 pitches)
35.5% -- April 13 to May 15 (197 pitches)
57.1% -- May 16 to June 11 (60 pitches)
28.1% -- June 12 to now (57 pitches)
Merloni pointed out the last change multiple times. The big improvement includes a big increase in rate of balls outside the zone, so he's presumably taking some pitches that everyone would take, but that can only account for so much.
The interesting thing here is that the dramatic reduction happened after he started hitting. So the next breakdown will be in-play percentage. What I saw is Rafaela discovering that he can hit pitches a bit outside the zone to empty spots on the ground (his actual vs. expected numbers on grounders in this stretch are insane). If so, the question is whether he actually has a "hit 'em where they ain't" sklll, or is just exploiting an outdated set of defensive positions. I suspect mostly the latter, but some of both might be happening.
The low chase rate portions here also line up nearly perfectly with the times when his xwOBA is good
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tedf
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Posts: 162
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Post by tedf on Jun 20, 2024 18:41:40 GMT -5
Anyway, good stuff about both his mechanics and plate approach. Doesn't really make sense of the fact that he suddenly became great on June 12th after being terrible before that, but maybe some of that is just statistical fluke.
Large chance of statistical flukes when dealing with samples this small... However I'll note that his exit velocity averaged 91.3 from May 31 through June 11, beginning with the Detroit series, even if the contact rate didn't improve until the Phillies series. Could also be an element of how each club chose to work to him. I don't know anything here, am just brainstorming ideas while I enjoy the show.
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Post by nonothing on Jun 20, 2024 18:48:48 GMT -5
His chase rate on pitches outside the zone can be very easily divided into segments.
48.2% -- Opening day to April 12 (85 pitches)
35.5% -- April 13 to May 15 (197 pitches)
57.1% -- May 16 to June 11 (60 pitches)
28.1% -- June 12 to now (57 pitches)
Merloni pointed out the last change multiple times. The big improvement includes a big increase in rate of balls outside the zone, so he's presumably taking some pitches that everyone would take, but that can only account for so much.
The interesting thing here is that the dramatic reduction happened after he started hitting. So the next breakdown will be in-play percentage. What I saw is Rafaela discovering that he can hit pitches a bit outside the zone to empty spots on the ground (his actual vs. expected numbers on grounders in this stretch are insane). If so, the question is whether he actually has a "hit 'em where they ain't" sklll, or is just exploiting an outdated set of defensive positions. I suspect mostly the latter, but some of both might be happening.
Does anyone have stats on pitches on the outer half hit to the right of 2nd base? I think he had three major adjustments to make. One was to stop swinging at balls outside the zone. The second was to stop trying to pull balls on the outer half. The third was to stop swinging out of his shoes hard with 2 strikes. Making progress on the first one is important. But all three would likely make him an all star in CF next year.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,016
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 20, 2024 21:54:34 GMT -5
Strange - lots of analysis from Fatse here. Not sure why he isn't just enjoying Rafaela's performance as you would a song on the radio.
Anyway, good stuff about both his mechanics and plate approach. Doesn't really make sense of the fact that he suddenly became great on June 12th after being terrible before that, but maybe some of that is just statistical fluke.
It makes a lot more sense if you have his chase rates. Here are the last 7 games before the 12th, and the 7 games since. Total pitches outside the zone, then the number that (in reality, not necessarily what was called after the fact).
2, 1 8, 2 11, 5 6, 1 13, 5 13, 6 3, 0
6, 5 8,7 11, 7 3, 3 14, 8 10, 7 5, 4
Very obviously a choice. 56 pitches and he swings at 36. 57 pitches and he swings at 16. (See the next post for the fluke odds.)
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,016
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 20, 2024 22:00:04 GMT -5
Anyway, good stuff about both his mechanics and plate approach. Doesn't really make sense of the fact that he suddenly became great on June 12th after being terrible before that, but maybe some of that is just statistical fluke.
Large chance of statistical flukes when dealing with samples this small... However I'll note that his exit velocity averaged 91.3 from May 31 through June 11, beginning with the Detroit series, even if the contact rate didn't improve until the Phillies series. Could also be an element of how each club chose to work to him. I don't know anything here, am just brainstorming ideas while I enjoy the show.
Folks are quick to mention small sample sizes, which is good. Folks almost never mention effect size, which is half of the story. That's less good.
In this case, Lou Merloni noted the dramatic improvement in chase rate and credited the breakout to it. The odds of that improvement being random was 11,080 to 1.
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Post by itinerantherb on Jun 20, 2024 22:49:51 GMT -5
So you're saying there's a chance that it's random?
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Post by bosoxnation on Jun 21, 2024 2:13:19 GMT -5
Hes 23. Hes a Gold Glove CF. Hes got pop. We really have to pray that they are working with him on his chasing. Hes a 9 hitter. He's a good backup SS. He's one of our few RHH. He's got more RBIs then our 300 million dollar man. I'm here to ride with Rafaela!
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 162
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Post by tedf on Jun 21, 2024 7:09:37 GMT -5
Folks are quick to mention small sample sizes, which is good. Folks almost never mention effect size, which is half of the story. That's less good. That is ignoring two facts: (1) It doesn't meet the conditions for a binomial distribution, especially since he is facing different pitchers from different teams that may have decided to work him differently. (2) Whether or not it is a random statistical fluke does not tell us whether or not it is a sustainable improvement. i'm not saying that it IS random or that he WILL revert to prior bad habits, and I am very hopeful that he is learning improved plate discipline (which is something I argued here last year could happen). I'm just saying that seven games is too small a sample to say anything with confidence. We will have to agree to disagree on this one.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 21, 2024 8:15:06 GMT -5
Strange - lots of analysis from Fatse here. Not sure why he isn't just enjoying Rafaela's performance as you would a song on the radio.
Anyway, good stuff about both his mechanics and plate approach. Doesn't really make sense of the fact that he suddenly became great on June 12th after being terrible before that, but maybe some of that is just statistical fluke.
It makes a lot more sense if you have his chase rates. Here are the last 7 games before the 12th, and the 7 games since. Total pitches outside the zone, then the number that (in reality, not necessarily what was called after the fact).
2, 1 8, 2 11, 5 6, 1 13, 5 13, 6 3, 0
6, 5 8,7 11, 7 3, 3 14, 8 10, 7 5, 4
Very obviously a choice. 56 pitches and he swings at 36. 57 pitches and he swings at 16. (See the next post for the fluke odds.)
Can a player just choose all of a sudden to not chase? He should have done that years ago. Everyone should do it!
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Post by 0ap0 on Jun 21, 2024 8:43:01 GMT -5
Can a player just choose all of a sudden to not chase? He should have done that years ago. Everyone should do it! Maybe the Red Sox could hire Pedey to go around and tell the prospects to try not chasing?
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Post by blizzards39 on Jun 21, 2024 9:59:18 GMT -5
Is there a chance CR wins ROY? His counting stats that they like to look at say so. What will it take for an2nd half for Him to be in the running?
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Post by seamus on Jun 21, 2024 11:27:26 GMT -5
Is there a chance CR wins ROY? His counting stats that they like to look at say so. What will it take for an2nd half for Him to be in the running? The ROY is probably Gil's to lose, but if he goes down or implodes in the second half and the Red Sox make the playoffs, Ceddanne has a pretty good shot if he can get to a 100 OPS+ and post a 20-20.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 21, 2024 12:07:17 GMT -5
I think he needs to get hot in the second half. He's probably not even the frontrunner for ROY for the Red Sox.
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gerry
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Posts: 1,775
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Post by gerry on Jun 21, 2024 14:34:22 GMT -5
What an interesting teaser for a suddenly very young, very interesting team : Abreu? Hamilton? Rafaella? Slaten? Valdez? It seems most could get votes for something. Little Raffy is a big part of, IMO, a big transition. Certainly a face of it.
Add into this transition the recently kids in Bernardino, Bello, Casas, Crawford, Duran, Grissom, Romy G, Houck, Kelly, Weissert, Whitlock, Winck, Wong, Yoshida. Forever young.
Amazing that the old men include vote getters like Devers, O’Neill, Ref, Story. Add Anthony, Mayer, Teel to 2025. Nice.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jun 21, 2024 15:44:33 GMT -5
What an interesting teaser for a suddenly very young, very interesting team : Abreu? Hamilton? Rafaella? Slaten? Valdez? It seems most could get votes for something. Little Raffy is a big part of, IMO, a big transition. Certainly a face of it. Add into this transition the recently kids in Bernardino, Bello, Casas, Crawford, Duran, Grissom, Romy G, Houck, Kelly, Weissert, Whitlock, Winck, Wong, Yoshida. Forever young. Amazing that the old men include vote getters like Devers, O’Neill, Ref, Story. Add Anthony, Mayer, Teel to 2025. Nice. Bernardino is 32 but I share your enthusiasm with what is going on. I would no mess with this group very much at all.
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Post by rickasadoorian on Jun 22, 2024 11:48:54 GMT -5
What an interesting teaser for a suddenly very young, very interesting team : Abreu? Hamilton? Rafaella? Slaten? Valdez? It seems most could get votes for something. Little Raffy is a big part of, IMO, a big transition. Certainly a face of it. Add into this transition the recently kids in Bernardino, Bello, Casas, Crawford, Duran, Grissom, Romy G, Houck, Kelly, Weissert, Whitlock, Winck, Wong, Yoshida. Forever young. Amazing that the old men include vote getters like Devers, O’Neill, Ref, Story. Add Anthony, Mayer, Teel to 2025. Nice. Bernardino is 32 but I share your enthusiasm with what is going on. I would no mess with this group very much at all. And Yoshida is 30. I would mess with that part if it was possible. Not sure what kind of value he'd have, tho. On another note, Devers is younger than Duran, Crawford, Houck, and Romy G too but he's somehow an old man.
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Post by soxin8 on Jun 22, 2024 13:08:18 GMT -5
Is there a chance CR wins ROY? His counting stats that they like to look at say so. What will it take for an2nd half for Him to be in the running? I am not betting or advocating for it but I was looking at what the sites thought of his chances. About 4 weeks ago he was listed 14 out of 14 listed choices. Now it looks like he is 5th and Wilyer around 2nd, depending on which sites you look at. Gil will have to have a few more implosions and Ceddanne will have to stay hot but it is not out of the question. I was not yet inclined the start the ROY draft pick thread but we are all hoping that is a possibility in the near future.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 3, 2024 13:53:33 GMT -5
In re: "Chasing a Gold Glover": Rafaela now has a combined -3 OAA and +1 DRS. He's great in CF, obviously, but the defensive metrics absolutely HATE him at SS. He's -8 OAA now at that position. On pace for like -35 over a full season as a full-time shortstop.
I looked it up because I actually thought the stats might have stabilized; he had looked okay on the infield lately from what I had seen. But nope, he just keeps sinking. Hamilton, for comparison, has stabilized at -2; he had a bad first week or so but as been league average at SS ever since. Romy is at +1 in 65 innings.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 3, 2024 14:03:43 GMT -5
In re: "Chasing a Gold Glover": Rafaela now has a combined -3 OAA and +1 DRS. He's great in CF, obviously, but the defensive metrics absolutely HATE him at SS. He's -8 OAA now at that position. On pace for like -35 over a full season as a full-time shortstop.
I looked it up because I actually thought the stats might have stabilized; he had looked okay on the infield lately from what I had seen. But nope, he just keeps sinking. Hamilton, for comparison, has stabilized at -2; he had a bad first week or so but as been league average at SS ever since. Romy is at +1 in 65 innings.
Not to sound like a broken record but my eyes and these stats tell me that Rafaela should not being playing SS other than as an emergency. He's far more valuable as a CFer right now.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 3, 2024 14:13:11 GMT -5
In re: "Chasing a Gold Glover": Rafaela now has a combined -3 OAA and +1 DRS. He's great in CF, obviously, but the defensive metrics absolutely HATE him at SS. He's -8 OAA now at that position. On pace for like -35 over a full season as a full-time shortstop.
I looked it up because I actually thought the stats might have stabilized; he had looked okay on the infield lately from what I had seen. But nope, he just keeps sinking. Hamilton, for comparison, has stabilized at -2; he had a bad first week or so but as been league average at SS ever since. Romy is at +1 in 65 innings.
Not to sound like a broken record but my eyes and these stats tell me that Rafaela should not being playing SS other than as an emergency. He's far more valuable as a CFer right now. I'm not sure why they're using him at SS so much rather than 2B. I'd rather see him at 2B against lefties with Romy or Hamilton at SS. That way they could take advantage of his flexibility without exposing him so much.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 3, 2024 14:31:25 GMT -5
I've been making this same point and I generally agree, but my best guess is the counter is they believe that Rafaela has plus defensive upside at shortstop and are playing him there to try and unlock that? He occasionally makes plays that I don't think Hamilton and Romy are capable of making, while consistently screwing up plays the other two do not.
He is so superlative in center though that I'm not sure this infield versatility should really matter all that much. The challenge is right now they have too many good outfielders.
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Post by rickasadoorian on Jul 3, 2024 15:57:51 GMT -5
I've been making this same point and I generally agree, but my best guess is the counter is they believe that Rafaela has plus defensive upside at shortstop and are playing him there to try and unlock that? He occasionally makes plays that I don't think Hamilton and Romy are capable of making, while consistently screwing up plays the other two do not. He is so superlative in center though that I'm not sure this infield versatility should really matter all that much. The challenge is right now they have too many good outfielders. My best guess is the Sox don't put much value in defensive stats over a 39 game sample size. That and they are using defensive stats we do not have access to.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 3, 2024 16:14:42 GMT -5
I've been making this same point and I generally agree, but my best guess is the counter is they believe that Rafaela has plus defensive upside at shortstop and are playing him there to try and unlock that? He occasionally makes plays that I don't think Hamilton and Romy are capable of making, while consistently screwing up plays the other two do not. He is so superlative in center though that I'm not sure this infield versatility should really matter all that much. The challenge is right now they have too many good outfielders. My best guess is the Sox don't put much value in defensive stats over a 39 game sample size. That and they are using defensive stats we do not have access to. There's two parts: 1) He has been bad, objectively, I highly doubt the Red Sox would argue anything less. 2) Defensive stats don't stabilize this quickly and they have a much longer track record of defensive statistics for him from the minors as well as the underlying indicators that might suggest whether or not he will continue to be bad. Part 1 is indisputable though, I don't know how anyone could watch him and think differently. I think this is largely due to screwing up routine plays, but it's still true. He has 7 errors in 291 innings at shortstop, no player has more errors in fewer innings at any position in MLB this year. If he played another 115 innings (40% of his current total) at shortstop and didn't make another error the last sentence would still be true. His OAA/inning is the worst of every shortstop in MLB with at least 200 innings played by 38%. He also has the worst DRS by a wide margin and the second worst UZR. This isn't to slam Rafaela, but there's some lingering narrative that the Red Sox play him at shortstop because he improves the defense there and it is absolutely untrue.
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