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Post by rickasadoorian on Jul 3, 2024 16:32:51 GMT -5
My best guess is the Sox don't put much value in defensive stats over a 39 game sample size. That and they are using defensive stats we do not have access to. There's two parts: 1) He has been bad, objectively, I highly doubt the Red Sox would argue anything less. 2) Defensive stats don't stabilize this quickly and they have a much longer track record of defensive statistics for him from the minors as well as the underlying indicators that might suggest whether or not he will continue to be bad. Part 1 is indisputable though, I don't know how anyone could watch him and think differently. I think this is largely due to screwing up routine plays, but it's still true. He has 7 errors in 291 innings at shortstop, no player has more errors in fewer innings at any position in MLB this year. If he played another 115 innings (40% of his current total) at shortstop and didn't make another error the last sentence would still be true. His OAA/inning is the worst of every shortstop in MLB with at least 200 innings played by 38%. He also has the worst DRS by a wide margin and the second worst UZR. This isn't to slam Rafaela, but there's some lingering narrative that the Red Sox play him at shortstop because he improves the defense there and it is absolutely untrue. Yeah, he's been bad. My point was maybe the Sox have more underlying data and have decided that the 39 games is nothing more than a bad stretch and not really indictive of his true talent level. It's possible they think it will correct itself with time and that he's already a good SS. That he does actually improve the defense even if that hasn't been the case so far. Just because he has been bad in his first 39 games doesn't necessarily mean he is bad. It could just mean he started his career with a bad stretch of games. Long story short, I don't think you can use the first 39 games to predict what will happen in the next 39, or to come to some kind of conclusion about Rafaela's defense. I don't think we really disagree though.
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tedf
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Post by tedf on Jul 3, 2024 16:51:12 GMT -5
Guess I see it differently... With just 644 innings at shortstop in the minors (and as an IFA that's reaching well back to high school age), I expected him to be learning on the job this year. He appears to have plus range for the position (though I can't offer any statistics that I find convincing), so he ought to become an above-average defender if he can eliminate most of the errors. Seems a reasonable expectation for somebody with so little prior experience?
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Post by strike23 on Jul 3, 2024 17:57:55 GMT -5
I can't believe I'm saying this but is he actually that much better than Duran in CF? I regularly misread defensive stats but OAA looks like it grades them similarly. I'd say he looks better by the eye test but I'd almost always take the offensive upside of TON/Duran in LF/CF especially in fenway where Duran's speed is largely wasted in left. Until his bat comes around it seems like the best fit for him is as a super utility guy, I haven't been able to watch much the past month because of work but when we first moved him to SS he definitely looked like he had significantly more defensive upside there than Hamilton
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tedf
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Post by tedf on Jul 3, 2024 18:43:34 GMT -5
Agreed, on a rate basis they are both top ten. You can't go wrong with either one.
Rafaela objectively has a better arm, but at this point Duran plays a cleaner game.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 3, 2024 19:04:38 GMT -5
I can't believe I'm saying this but is he actually that much better than Duran in CF? I regularly misread defensive stats but OAA looks like it grades them similarly. I'd say he looks better by the eye test but I'd almost always take the offensive upside of TON/Duran in LF/CF especially in fenway where Duran's speed is largely wasted in left. Until his bat comes around it seems like the best fit for him is as a super utility guy, I haven't been able to watch much the past month because of work but when we first moved him to SS he definitely looked like he had significantly more defensive upside there than Hamilton Its honestly a testament to Duran that he’s made this a fair question, but Rafaela’s jump (range) does still rate better as significantly better this year. Their OAA numbers are about even because Rafaela’s blown a couple more easy plays than Duran. Rafaela also has a noticeably better arm.
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Post by costpet on Jul 3, 2024 21:13:40 GMT -5
Being an old timer here, there once was a shortstop on the Sox named Don Buddin. He played in the late fifties. Two years in a row he made 35 errors at short. They weren’t at random. He seemed to make them only when the game was on the line. Like the ninth. I wondered why he was playing, but then I discovered that he was from South Carolina just like Yawkey. That’s how he kept his job. At the time he was the most hated guy on the team. Once he retired, he never came back to Fenway for any reason.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 3, 2024 22:35:39 GMT -5
CR is seriously making claim for ROY. Also check out his stats Vs Anthony Volpe!!!!
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jul 4, 2024 2:00:39 GMT -5
Being an old timer here, there once was a shortstop on the Sox named Don Buddin. He played in the late fifties. Two years in a row he made 35 errors at short. They weren’t at random. He seemed to make them only when the game was on the line. Like the ninth. I wondered why he was playing, but then I discovered that he was from South Carolina just like Yawkey. That’s how he kept his job. At the time he was the most hated guy on the team. Once he retired, he never came back to Fenway for any reason. Buddin actually had lots of fans among the kids. I went to a ton of games when he played for the Sox. We discussed how he must hold the record for the most foul ball home runs. They seemed mammoth. Though he seldom hit one inside the foul lines. It was a different world then, and who you knew counted for alot. Maybe not so different. And yes Tom Yawkey liked southern players, and shared biases of many Southerners of the time; and for that matter New Englanders. (Well, it seems lately those times haven’t really passed.) But for all those flaws he also loved baseball and the Sox and listened carefully to his scouts when he signed Californians like Dom DiMaggio, Bobby Doerr and Mexican American Ted Williams. Context sometimes get lost.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 4, 2024 3:16:07 GMT -5
Can we all agree he's the best 9 hitter in the game? I'd be interested in how many catches he's made with less than 25% probability. I love this kid.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 4, 2024 7:20:57 GMT -5
Can we all agree he's the best 9 hitter in the game? I'd be interested in how many catches he's made with less than 25% probability. I love this kid. He’s made 1 in 5 opportunities. Though I do remember two of the others hitting off his glove so he’s been darn close a couple more times.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 4, 2024 7:46:38 GMT -5
On CF versus IF, the answer right now is he needs to be on the dirt for them to get their best lineup out there. No kidding he's better in center but when the choice is sitting one of Duran, Abreu (Refsnyder vs LHP), or O'Neill or two of Valdez, Hamilton, and Romy, that's an easy one.
Fair question as to SS vs. 2B but I think it's correct that they see a chance for him to be above average there (plus might be stretching it) and are getting him reps, not unlike their stubbornness with Hamilton. It is crazy though that he's been the worst defensive SS in the game by some metrics.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 4, 2024 7:56:29 GMT -5
On CF versus IF, the answer right now is he needs to be on the dirt for them to get their best lineup out there. No kidding he's better in center but when the choice is sitting one of Duran, Abreu (Refsnyder vs LHP), or O'Neill or two of Valdez, Hamilton, and Romy, that's an easy one. Fair question as to SS vs. 2B but I think it's correct that they see a chance for him to be above average there (plus might be stretching it) and are getting him reps, not unlike their stubbornness with Hamilton. It is crazy though that he's been the worst defensive SS in the game by some metrics. Theres also the option to sit Rafaela to field the best lineup possible, particularly against righties they would do that if they were really lineup-maxing. But understandably they’re prioritizing his development.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 4, 2024 8:40:56 GMT -5
On CF versus IF, the answer right now is he needs to be on the dirt for them to get their best lineup out there. No kidding he's better in center but when the choice is sitting one of Duran, Abreu (Refsnyder vs LHP), or O'Neill or two of Valdez, Hamilton, and Romy, that's an easy one. Fair question as to SS vs. 2B but I think it's correct that they see a chance for him to be above average there (plus might be stretching it) and are getting him reps, not unlike their stubbornness with Hamilton. It is crazy though that he's been the worst defensive SS in the game by some metrics. Theres also the option to sit Rafaela to field the best lineup possible, particularly against righties they would do that if they were really lineup-maxing. But understandably they’re prioritizing his development. Of course if getting reps at SS for development is the priority then they could just have him in AAA. But then he's not getting the MLB PAs that he probably needs. He's oddly sort of in-between different potential useful roles.
I'm encouraged that he's managed an 83 wRC+ this season despite the struggles with the approach at the plate, though. Jackie Bradley Jr. had a 1.9 WAR/600 PA career with an 82 wRC+. And it seems fair to assume Rafaela is closer to his floor than his ceiling as a hitter.
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tedf
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Post by tedf on Jul 4, 2024 8:50:10 GMT -5
Tale of two seasons... For April, Rafaela hit .186/.218/.343 for a 46 wRC+. Since then, over 2+ months, he has hit .279/.305/.442 for a 104 wRC+. That latter is strong enough to play regularly, either as a bat-first shortstop, or as a strong defensive corner OF, or of course as a CF. Same number of HR as Alex Bregman, among others.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jul 4, 2024 10:18:44 GMT -5
And in April CD was supposed to be in AAA instead of filling holes at Fenway. He is just getting started.
Edit: and how much he adds to the speed dimension as these New Sox evolve. Rafaella, Duran, Hamilton are central to the chaos.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 8, 2024 20:54:08 GMT -5
Fangraphs metrics hate CR. Obviously its the play at SS and not the OF. I looked at his baseball savant numbers. Catch probability, sprint speed and arm strength. Seems like he ion top of these lists. If he only played CF what would his numbers look like?? How would that affect his WAR?
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 8, 2024 21:15:17 GMT -5
Fangraphs metrics hate CR. Obviously it’s the play at SS and not the OF. I looked at his baseball savant numbers. Catch probability, sprint speed and arm strength. Seems like he ion top of these lists. If he only played CF what would his numbers look like?? How would that affect his WAR? Rough estimate if his offense stayed the same is that he’d have about 1 more WAR
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Post by keninten on Jul 8, 2024 23:53:45 GMT -5
As a non-sabermetric guy. He seems more valuable because of his versatility. Mainly because he adds depth to the team.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 9, 2024 1:02:09 GMT -5
As a non-sabermetric guy. He seems more valuable because of his versatility. Mainly because he adds depth to the team. His counting stats dont hurt either. If a guy thinks those still matter.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 9, 2024 1:29:25 GMT -5
As a non-sabermetric guy. He seems more valuable because of his versatility. Mainly because he adds depth to the team. His counting stats dont hurt either. If a guy thinks those still matter. Bases clearing extra base hits are so 20th Century 😀
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 9, 2024 6:58:19 GMT -5
Being an old timer here, there once was a shortstop on the Sox named Don Buddin. He played in the late fifties. Two years in a row he made 35 errors at short. They weren’t at random. He seemed to make them only when the game was on the line. Like the ninth. I wondered why he was playing, but then I discovered that he was from South Carolina just like Yawkey. That’s how he kept his job. At the time he was the most hated guy on the team. Once he retired, he never came back to Fenway for any reason. Buddin actually had lots of fans among the kids. I went to a ton of games when he played for the Sox. We discussed how he must hold the record for the most foul ball home runs. They seemed mammoth. Though he seldom hit one inside the foul lines. It was a different world then, and who you knew counted for alot. Maybe not so different. And yes Tom Yawkey liked southern players, and shared biases of many Southerners of the time; and for that matter New Englanders. (Well, it seems lately those times haven’t really passed.) But for all those flaws he also loved baseball and the Sox and listened carefully to his scouts when he signed Californians like Dom DiMaggio, Bobby Doerr and Mexican American Ted Williams. Context sometimes get lost. What a good post. You are so right on Buddin. Without checking, I recall that Buddin would hit 10-12 home runs in a season but seemingly at least 3-4 times that number foul in Fenway. It was both exciting and frustrating to listen to the broadcaster calls. I do remember him hitting a grandslam against the hated Yankees. Wonder of wonders it was to left center! We had a good contingent of close by neighborhood kids and we thereafter referred to him as Don "Yankee" Buddin. And I recall that Buddin could make exceptional plays on defense but boot some easier ones. Yes, he made a lot of errors but it was a different era. Fielding was much more prone to error making back then. The current Red Sox are dead last in fielding but would have been about average back then. I don't remember feeling or being aware of any hate for Buddin at least among us kids. Back then we were happy to just listen to the games...TV being limited mostly to Sat & Sun.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 11, 2024 14:07:45 GMT -5
In re: "Chasing a Gold Glover": Rafaela now has a combined -3 OAA and +1 DRS. He's great in CF, obviously, but the defensive metrics absolutely HATE him at SS. He's -8 OAA now at that position. On pace for like -35 over a full season as a full-time shortstop.
I looked it up because I actually thought the stats might have stabilized; he had looked okay on the infield lately from what I had seen. But nope, he just keeps sinking. Hamilton, for comparison, has stabilized at -2; he had a bad first week or so but as been league average at SS ever since. Romy is at +1 in 65 innings.
Another week and now he's at -5 OAA and 0 DRS overall. At shortstop he's at -9 OAA and -6 DRS. Are people aware that he's statistically been a hair worse than Kiké at SS?
Did anyone notice that he booted a ball that allowed the first runner to get on in the A's 3-run 3rd inning yesterday? It was scored a hit but it looked like a makable play. That play was arguably the difference in the game. The team is really hurting itself with this experiment and it's surprising how long they've stuck with it now that they're in a playoff race. If they're not going to play him at CF it seems like a no-brainer to put him at 2B and have Hamilton/Romy at SS.
On the bright side, the bat has been steadily improving, and he'd probably be coming up on 2 WAR already if he were being played at his natural position.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 11, 2024 14:26:50 GMT -5
I find it pretty frustrating that they might be costing themselves a first round pick by playing him at shortstop so much. Although it’s probably too late now to fix that.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 11, 2024 14:32:09 GMT -5
Does Rafaela even qualify for the pick since he signed an extension? I thought I remember that when a player signs an extension that it takes them out of the running for the extra pick?
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Post by costpet on Jul 11, 2024 14:44:43 GMT -5
Tom Yawkey did not like Frank Malzone. Why? Because he was from NY. That was before Yaz showed up, who was also from NY. As you know we were the last to get a black player, Pumsie Green. The interesting part is that Pumsie was benched because he didn't seem to care very much about baseball. I was told this by one of his teammates. They had to take Pete Runnels off 1b and send him to 2b, with Dick Gernate taking over 1b.
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