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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by incandenza on Jul 11, 2024 14:55:43 GMT -5
I find it pretty frustrating that they might be costing themselves a first round pick by playing him at shortstop so much. Although it’s probably too late now to fix that. Speaking of the ROY race, Cowser's bat has cooled off dramatically and he's down to a 106 wRC+. Basically he started off with a hot two weeks and has been atrocious ever since - hitting .182/.279/.336 since April 15th.
But he's well ahead by WAR (2.1 to Abreu's 1.3 in 2nd place) mainly because of his +7 OAA in 394 innings in LF. How is that even possible as a left fielder? I wonder if Baltimore's giant LF is mucking with the defensive stats the way that Fenway's LF does (but in the opposite direction).
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 11, 2024 15:00:53 GMT -5
Man oh man I don't think I have ever seen so much negativity focused on a ROOKIE for the Sox. It seems like all we hear about is how he chases, he doesn't walk, he strikes out too much, he "arguable cost us the game" on a third inning ball that was ruled a hit but some think he booted. While some of this may be truer it is also true that he stabilized the infield in the early going when they had no playable shortstop, he has made timely hits (including a game winning HR against the MFY). Makes highlight reel plays in CF when he plays there and doesn't sulk when the team puts him at short. His hitting has steadily improved as the season progrsses. This on top on a fairly steady drumbeat to include in trades last off season from many posters. I'm thinking his new nickname needs to be Conscientious Objector because he doesn't believe in WAR.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 11, 2024 15:16:10 GMT -5
Man oh man I don't think I have ever seen so much negativity focused on a ROOKIE for the Sox. It seems like all we hear about is how he chases, he doesn't walk, he strikes out too much, he "arguable cost us the game" on a third inning ball that was ruled a hit but some think he booted. While some of this may be truer it is also true that he stabilized the infield in the early going when they had no playable shortstop, he has made timely hits (including a game winning HR against the MFY). Makes highlight reel plays in CF when he plays there and doesn't sulk when the team puts him at short. His hitting has steadily improved as the season progrsses. This on top on a fairly steady drumbeat to include in trades last off season from many posters. I'm thinking his new nickname needs to be Conscientious Objector because he doesn't believe in WAR. I love Rafaela! I am very excited at how the bat is coming around and he is a joy to watch in CF! I'm feeling better and better about his extension!
But I am growing increasingly frustrated at the team for keeping him at SS when they don't have to. It's clearly not working out there for him, and while I can understand them trying to see if he can handle the position for the long term, they are in a playoff race right now and it is costing them wins.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 11, 2024 18:11:49 GMT -5
I understand your frustration and think there must be some reason they want to give PAs to Oneill and Abreu and keeping Duran is essential so they must they prefer Rafaela to Hamilton at SS in that situation.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 11, 2024 19:38:29 GMT -5
I think Rafaela's continued play at SS can be summed up as follows: 1. Red Sox are committed to Rafaela as a full-time player 2. When Rafaela plays CF, two of O'Neill/Abreu/Refsnyder (3rd/5th/6th in fWAR for Red Sox hitters respectively) have to sit 3. Rafaela has a stronger arm than Hamilton (85.9 to 85.1 per Statcast; larger gap according to scouts), and in an ideal situation, would always play SS over him 4. Rafaela has started only 23 games at 2b in his professional career (as opposed to 115 at SS). So expecting him to be better as a 2nd baseman is likely wishful thinking.
Rafaela probably needs another couple years of experience to be a quality big league SS, which really isn't his fault. But the Red Sox want him in the lineup everyday and that's the best way for Cora to do it given the players available.
Rafaela is currently 15th of 48 in arm strength for SS (with 50+ attempts). UZR has his range at SS at +1 while Statcast has him at -2.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 11, 2024 20:03:03 GMT -5
I think Rafaela's continued play at SS can be summed up as follows: 1. Red Sox are committed to Rafaela as a full-time player 2. When Rafaela plays CF, two of O'Neill/Abreu/Refsnyder (3rd/5th/6th in fWAR for Red Sox hitters respectively) have to sit 3. Rafaela has a stronger arm than Hamilton (85.9 to 85.1 per Statcast; larger gap according to scouts), and in an ideal situation, would always play SS over him
4. Rafaela has started only 23 games at 2b in his professional career (as opposed to 115 at SS). So expecting him to be better as a 2nd baseman is likely wishful thinking. Rafaela probably needs another couple years of experience to be a quality big league SS, which really isn't his fault. But the Red Sox want him in the lineup everyday and that's the best way for Cora to do it given the players available. Rafaela is currently 15th of 48 in arm strength for SS (with 50+ attempts). UZR has his range at SS at +1 while Statcast has him at -2. Re; 3 - do you just mean in an ideal world Rafaela also fields ground balls better than Hamilton because he has a better arm for the position? Because in an ideal world, to win games right now, I'd rather play Hamilton at short. Even if Rafaela was just as bad at 2B the SS gets more balls hit to them. I'm not totally against playing him there anyways because I can see the upside and I get the development angle, but I do feel like this year so far they've sacrificed on field performance to arrange them the way they have defensively
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asm18
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Posts: 2,543
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Post by asm18 on Jul 11, 2024 20:33:31 GMT -5
Youk was making the point of the broadcast that Ceddanne will make these excellent looking plays and then botch some more routine ones - not sure to what extent (if at all) the numbers back that up. I suppose one argument in his favor is that the ceiling is probably higher of Ceddanne at shortstop than Hamilton. But at some point the results need to be there - maybe they feel like with more sustained play at SS at the big league level the talent will bear itself put? Not an easy decision.
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Post by puzzler on Jul 11, 2024 20:44:33 GMT -5
Youk was making the point of the broadcast that Ceddanne will make these excellent looking plays and then botch some more routine ones - not sure to what extent (if at all) the numbers back that up. I suppose one argument in his favor is that the ceiling is probably higher of Ceddanne at shortstop than Hamilton. But at some point the results need to be there - maybe they feel like with more sustained play at SS at the big league level the talent will bear itself put? Not an easy decision. I mean it's not like this guy struggled at the plate for two months and started to get better at the plate...oh wait I mean it's not like the team is winning series over and over again with him playing more than 50% of the time at SS...oh wait Pretty much the argument against him boils down to OAA and the rookie of the year pick. I'm willing to go as far as the spreadsheets are wrong about this. He should continue to split time at both positions IMO.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Jul 11, 2024 20:54:33 GMT -5
I think Rafaela's continued play at SS can be summed up as follows: 1. Red Sox are committed to Rafaela as a full-time player 2. When Rafaela plays CF, two of O'Neill/Abreu/Refsnyder (3rd/5th/6th in fWAR for Red Sox hitters respectively) have to sit 3. Rafaela has a stronger arm than Hamilton (85.9 to 85.1 per Statcast; larger gap according to scouts), and in an ideal situation, would always play SS over him
4. Rafaela has started only 23 games at 2b in his professional career (as opposed to 115 at SS). So expecting him to be better as a 2nd baseman is likely wishful thinking. Rafaela probably needs another couple years of experience to be a quality big league SS, which really isn't his fault. But the Red Sox want him in the lineup everyday and that's the best way for Cora to do it given the players available. Rafaela is currently 15th of 48 in arm strength for SS (with 50+ attempts). UZR has his range at SS at +1 while Statcast has him at -2. Re; 3 - do you just mean in an ideal world Rafaela also fields ground balls better than Hamilton because he has a better arm for the position? Because in an ideal world, to win games right now, I'd rather play Hamilton at short. Even if Rafaela was just as bad at 2B the SS gets more balls hit to them. I'm not totally against playing him there anyways because I can see the upside and I get the development angle, but I do feel like this year so far they've sacrificed on field performance to arrange them the way they have defensively Not sure why you would rather play Hamilton at short. From this sites scouting repot on Hamilton: Potential below-average defender at shortstop and average defender at second base. and: Arm: Below-average arm strength. Shot puts the ball over and throws lack carry. Arm is best suited for second base. Rafaela's arm is clearly better suited for short than Hamilton's arm. And having a strong arm is important for shortstops, especially on balls hit in the hole, right? That was the above posters point 3, I believe. I don't think either is a great choice defensively to play short, but if you are playing the two of them together in the middle infield, i think it makes sense to play Rafaela with the better arm and probably better range at short even if he makes a few more errors than you wouldd like to see. But maybe that is just because i still have nightmares about Hamilton not touching second on an easy double play (which would have ended the inning) while playing shortstop, which was followed by a 3 run home run.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 11, 2024 21:04:42 GMT -5
Re; 3 - do you just mean in an ideal world Rafaela also fields ground balls better than Hamilton because he has a better arm for the position? Because in an ideal world, to win games right now, I'd rather play Hamilton at short. Even if Rafaela was just as bad at 2B the SS gets more balls hit to them. I'm not totally against playing him there anyways because I can see the upside and I get the development angle, but I do feel like this year so far they've sacrificed on field performance to arrange them the way they have defensively Not sure why you would rather play Hamilton at short. From this sites scouting repot on Hamilton: Potential below-average defender at shortstop and average defender at second base. and: Arm: Below-average arm strength. Shot puts the ball over and throws lack carry. Arm is best suited for second base. Rafaela's arm is clearly better suited for short than Hamilton's arm. And having a strong arm is important for shortstops, especially on balls hit in the hole, right? That was the above posters point 3, I believe. I don't think either is a great choice defensively to play short, but if you are playing the two of them together in the middle infield, i think it makes sense to play Rafaela with the better arm and probably better range at short even if he makes a few more errors than you wouldd like to see. But maybe that is just because i still have nightmares about Hamilton not touching second on an easy double play (which would have ended the inning) while playing shortstop, which was followed by a 3 run home run. Having a strong arm isn’t really important for shortstops. Dansby Swanson has one of the worst arms in MLB and has been one of the best defensive shortstops and he isn’t an outlier. This is just a gut thing that doesn’t really hold up to scrutiny. I hear the case that Hamilton has to work harder to have an average shortstop arm than other guys do, but he could lose a couple MPH on his throws and still be fine. As much as I respect the scouts opinions the data is telling a different story and I care more about the result than how it looks. Why I would prefer Hamilton there is I think he is a better shortstop right now. Again, I get it if the Red Sox think Rafaela’s upside there is higher, that makes enough sense and I’m not against developing him there, so really I’m fine with the choice, but he has been worse there this year I don’t think it’s really debatable. Also making a critique of one part of a player’s game isn’t a case against him or any of us hating on Rafaela. I’m a huge fan, I’m not complaining about his performance overall, but this is a flaw right now, the team is choosing to play him through it even though it may be costing them on the field and it might have hurt their odds for a draft pick and that is interesting and worth discussing.
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Post by puzzler on Jul 11, 2024 21:25:50 GMT -5
Not sure why you would rather play Hamilton at short. From this sites scouting repot on Hamilton: Potential below-average defender at shortstop and average defender at second base. and: Arm: Below-average arm strength. Shot puts the ball over and throws lack carry. Arm is best suited for second base. Rafaela's arm is clearly better suited for short than Hamilton's arm. And having a strong arm is important for shortstops, especially on balls hit in the hole, right? That was the above posters point 3, I believe. I don't think either is a great choice defensively to play short, but if you are playing the two of them together in the middle infield, i think it makes sense to play Rafaela with the better arm and probably better range at short even if he makes a few more errors than you wouldd like to see. But maybe that is just because i still have nightmares about Hamilton not touching second on an easy double play (which would have ended the inning) while playing shortstop, which was followed by a 3 run home run. Having a strong arm isn’t really important for shortstops. Dansby Swanson has one of the worst arms in MLB and has been one of the best defensive shortstops and he isn’t an outlier. This is just a gut thing that doesn’t really hold up to scrutiny. I hear the case that Hamilton has to work harder to have an average shortstop arm than other guys do, but he could lose a couple MPH on his throws and still be fine. As much as I respect the scouts opinions the data is telling a different story and I care more about the result than how it looks. Why I would prefer Hamilton there is I think he is a better shortstop right now. Again, I get it if the Red Sox think Rafaela’s upside there is higher, that makes enough sense and I’m not against developing him there, so really I’m fine with the choice, but he has been worse there this year I don’t think it’s really debatable. Also making a critique of one part of a player’s game isn’t a case against him or any of us hating on Rafaela. I’m a huge fan, I’m not complaining about his performance overall, but this is a flaw right now, the team is choosing to play him through it even though it may be costing them on the field and it might have hurt their odds for a draft pick and that is interesting and worth discussing. I just think your critique is incorrect. He made one for sure, but imo two plays tonight that Hamilton can't make. And Hamilton is just as likely to mess up plays he should make. Rafaela's ceiling at SS is WAY higher than Hamiltons. But the bottom line is this team is winning with Rafaela splitting time. It's spreading at bats, helping keep guys fresh and keeping everyone invested in the team.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 11, 2024 21:41:23 GMT -5
Having a strong arm isn’t really important for shortstops. Dansby Swanson has one of the worst arms in MLB and has been one of the best defensive shortstops and he isn’t an outlier. This is just a gut thing that doesn’t really hold up to scrutiny. I hear the case that Hamilton has to work harder to have an average shortstop arm than other guys do, but he could lose a couple MPH on his throws and still be fine. As much as I respect the scouts opinions the data is telling a different story and I care more about the result than how it looks. Why I would prefer Hamilton there is I think he is a better shortstop right now. Again, I get it if the Red Sox think Rafaela’s upside there is higher, that makes enough sense and I’m not against developing him there, so really I’m fine with the choice, but he has been worse there this year I don’t think it’s really debatable. Also making a critique of one part of a player’s game isn’t a case against him or any of us hating on Rafaela. I’m a huge fan, I’m not complaining about his performance overall, but this is a flaw right now, the team is choosing to play him through it even though it may be costing them on the field and it might have hurt their odds for a draft pick and that is interesting and worth discussing. I just think your critique is incorrect. He made one for sure, but imo two plays tonight that Hamilton can't make. And Hamilton is just as likely to mess up plays he should make. Rafaela's ceiling at SS is WAY higher than Hamiltons. But the bottom line is this team is winning with Rafaela splitting time. It's spreading at bats, helping keep guys fresh and keeping everyone invested in the team. Well the second half of your point could also be true if Rafaela played second instead of short so it’s irrelevant to this debate. I tend to agree on the ceiling point, which I’ve said multiple times is why I can understand what they’re doing. But I don’t agree that he made plays today that Hamilton definitely couldn’t, maybe the one, but I’m not certain, the thing is though he’s also screwing up more plays than Hamilton has been. Hopefully going forward he won’t. My critique is simply that every single data point and my eyes tells me Rafaela is the third best defensive shortstop on the roster right now today, I don’t really know how you can say that is incorrect. That’s not to say he would be that for the rest of the season though, which is why ultimately I’m not too bothered by the choice.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 11, 2024 23:37:48 GMT -5
I think if you believe Rafaela is the 3rd best defensive SS on the roster now, which is a fair opinion, hoping he will be better than that within the next 60 games may be wishful thinking as Hamilton has more than double the pro starts (268) at SS as Rafaela. Assuming Rafaela is only 'just as bad' at 2b as he is at SS is likely also wishful thinking as he has had more than 5x the pro starts at SS as he has had at 2b.
As others have mentioned, having the player with the superior arm at SS is preferable (as I'm sure you recognize from almost every MIF scouting report). There are certainly players with weaker arms that make it work as the strength of the arm isn't what's truly important, it's how long it takes for a player to get the ball from his glove to where it needs to go, but arm strength is a big part of that for a SS because the average throwing distance is further. For reference, the median player for 2b average throw velocity this year is 76.7mph while the median player for SS velocity is at 84.5mph - that's a HUGE difference (this isn't just because of arm strength but also due to 2b often not trying to throw as hard when it's unnecessary).
This year, there have been 10,636 plays (putouts+assists+errors) made by shortstops while there have been 11,453 plays made by second basemen. That said, shortstops accrue errors at almost double the rate (2.7% to 1.4%) with throwing errors for SS occurring at nearly 3x the rate of 2b (1.32% to 0.45%). Just wanted to illustrate that having a 2nd baseman who commits a high quantity of errors may be just as bad, but it's also not as common. And moving the player whose errors frequently occur on routine plays to 2nd base, may not be the solution you're seeking.
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Post by puzzler on Jul 12, 2024 0:32:49 GMT -5
I think if you believe Rafaela is the 3rd best defensive SS on the roster now, which is a fair opinion, hoping he will be better than that within the next 60 games may be wishful thinking as Hamilton has more than double the pro starts (268) at SS as Rafaela. Assuming Rafaela is only 'just as bad' at 2b as he is at SS is likely also wishful thinking as he has had more than 5x the pro starts at SS as he has had at 2b. As others have mentioned, having the player with the superior arm at SS is preferable (as I'm sure you recognize from almost every MIF scouting report). There are certainly players with weaker arms that make it work as the strength of the arm isn't what's truly important, it's how long it takes for a player to get the ball from his glove to where it needs to go, but arm strength is a big part of that for a SS because the average throwing distance is further. For reference, the median player for 2b average throw velocity this year is 76.7mph while the median player for SS velocity is at 84.5mph - that's a HUGE difference (this isn't just because of arm strength but also due to 2b often not trying to throw as hard when it's unnecessary). This year, there have been 10,636 plays (putouts+assists+errors) made by shortstops while there have been 11,453 plays made by second basemen. That said, shortstops accrue errors at almost double the rate (2.7% to 1.4%) with throwing errors for SS occurring at nearly 3x the rate of 2b (1.32% to 0.45%). Just wanted to illustrate that having a 2nd baseman who commits a high quantity of errors may be just as bad, but it's also not as common. And moving the player whose errors frequently occur on routine plays to 2nd base, may not be the solution you're seeking. This is great analysis. I'd just like to point out that Rafaela has missed three plays at SS since June 11th (start of the Phillies series). The Red Sox have gone 17-8 since then. I'm not basing a decision to move him off SS based on how he was playing the position in April or May when he's been so much better than that. And maybe based on your numbers, the fact that neither Rafaela or Hamilton are logging full time innings at SS has been a benefit to both of them. They can both revert to a less stressful position for them; both being positions with lower rates of errors.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jul 12, 2024 0:59:00 GMT -5
Awesome, positive discussion about the evolution of the Sox talented (and speedy) new core. Couldn’t have had this discussion over the past several years. It’s sooo refreshing.
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Post by soxinsf on Jul 12, 2024 1:30:42 GMT -5
Oh, and by the way, he is on pace to drive in 90 runs while batting ninth.
Oh, and by the way, he is at least arguably the best SS in current situation. But with Story, Mayer, Campbell and even Grissom waiting in the wings, he is not the likely SS of the future.
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Post by bentossaurus on Jul 12, 2024 5:11:29 GMT -5
I think if you believe Rafaela is the 3rd best defensive SS on the roster now, which is a fair opinion, hoping he will be better than that within the next 60 games may be wishful thinking as Hamilton has more than double the pro starts (268) at SS as Rafaela. Assuming Rafaela is only 'just as bad' at 2b as he is at SS is likely also wishful thinking as he has had more than 5x the pro starts at SS as he has had at 2b. As others have mentioned, having the player with the superior arm at SS is preferable (as I'm sure you recognize from almost every MIF scouting report). There are certainly players with weaker arms that make it work as the strength of the arm isn't what's truly important, it's how long it takes for a player to get the ball from his glove to where it needs to go, but arm strength is a big part of that for a SS because the average throwing distance is further. For reference, the median player for 2b average throw velocity this year is 76.7mph while the median player for SS velocity is at 84.5mph - that's a HUGE difference (this isn't just because of arm strength but also due to 2b often not trying to throw as hard when it's unnecessary). This year, there have been 10,636 plays (putouts+assists+errors) made by shortstops while there have been 11,453 plays made by second basemen. That said, shortstops accrue errors at almost double the rate (2.7% to 1.4%) with throwing errors for SS occurring at nearly 3x the rate of 2b (1.32% to 0.45%). Just wanted to illustrate that having a 2nd baseman who commits a high quantity of errors may be just as bad, but it's also not as common. And moving the player whose errors frequently occur on routine plays to 2nd base, may not be the solution you're seeking. Just gonna say, even though I'm not sure I agree with your overall point, this is the kind of informed and nuanced argument that can make me sway. Excellent post.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 12, 2024 5:26:20 GMT -5
I think if you believe Rafaela is the 3rd best defensive SS on the roster now, which is a fair opinion, hoping he will be better than that within the next 60 games may be wishful thinking as Hamilton has more than double the pro starts (268) at SS as Rafaela. Assuming Rafaela is only 'just as bad' at 2b as he is at SS is likely also wishful thinking as he has had more than 5x the pro starts at SS as he has had at 2b. As others have mentioned, having the player with the superior arm at SS is preferable (as I'm sure you recognize from almost every MIF scouting report). There are certainly players with weaker arms that make it work as the strength of the arm isn't what's truly important, it's how long it takes for a player to get the ball from his glove to where it needs to go, but arm strength is a big part of that for a SS because the average throwing distance is further. For reference, the median player for 2b average throw velocity this year is 76.7mph while the median player for SS velocity is at 84.5mph - that's a HUGE difference (this isn't just because of arm strength but also due to 2b often not trying to throw as hard when it's unnecessary). This year, there have been 10,636 plays (putouts+assists+errors) made by shortstops while there have been 11,453 plays made by second basemen. That said, shortstops accrue errors at almost double the rate (2.7% to 1.4%) with throwing errors for SS occurring at nearly 3x the rate of 2b (1.32% to 0.45%). Just wanted to illustrate that having a 2nd baseman who commits a high quantity of errors may be just as bad, but it's also not as common. And moving the player whose errors frequently occur on routine plays to 2nd base, may not be the solution you're seeking. This is all fair, I actually do think it’s wishful thinking to believe Rafaela will be better than Hamilton at shortstop the rest of the way, but that’s the way the Red Sox are going and so I’m trying to be optimistic about the implications for this season. As we all seemingly agree on Rafaela’s athleticism and arm make the upside beyond this season apparent, so I get the long term piece of it (though I still prefer Rafaela in CF long run, especially with the team having Mayer and Story). The data on plays at 2B vs SS is interesting too, but I do think the error rate might go counter to your point that it’s wishful thinking that Rafaela would only be just as bad there. The error rate is lower in part because the position gives players more margin for mistakes (ex: you can bobble a ball and still have time to throw the runner out). Of course it’s more nuanced than that, you’re seeing the ball from a different angle and Rafaela has had more SS PT in recent years than 2B, so maybe the Red Sox do think he’d be worse there, but I’m not sure it’s a given. His error rate at short stop is the worst of any player at any position in MLB with at least 200 innings at that position by a wide margin this year, so conceivably playing somewhere you can more easily recover from potential errors might help him.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 12, 2024 6:02:49 GMT -5
Rafaelas rates are this or that. They're not chiseled in stone.
He has the athleticism to improve as he gains more experience along the line.
Yes, Rafaela is miles better in CF. Their best defensive team does have him in CF, but they sacrifice offense doing so. The only way this works better is if Grissom comes up and rakes which isnt happen9ng now. Rafaela in CF reduces Yoshida and O'Neill into a DH platoon or takes ABs away from Yoshida altogether so O'Neill DHs full time.
If Hamilton was a ton better at SS than Rafaela and the Sox had a good offensive and defensive 2b that's the direction I'd go, but they dont. A Valdez/Westrook platoon doesnt make me want to do that. Hamiltom is better himself at 2b than SS.
Valdez is a major liability at 2b. Its 1 big puzzle where right now the pieces fit best when Rafaela is at SS especially when Yoshida is now providing offense which wasnt the case until recently.
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Post by costpet on Jul 12, 2024 7:08:19 GMT -5
Remember when Duran was a rookie? He looked terrible in the OF. Yet he stuck it out and is now outstanding. Call him an All-Star. Rafaelas is a rookie. Keep that in mind. He's still learning and is a threat batting 9th. Good power. Possibly ROY. Give him another year and he might be an All-Star, too.
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Post by okin15 on Jul 12, 2024 7:17:34 GMT -5
I think Rafaela's continued play at SS can be summed up as follows: 1. Red Sox are committed to Rafaela as a full-time player 2. When Rafaela plays CF, two of O'Neill/Abreu/Refsnyder (3rd/5th/6th in fWAR for Red Sox hitters respectively) have to sit 3. Rafaela has a stronger arm than Hamilton (85.9 to 85.1 per Statcast; larger gap according to scouts), and in an ideal situation, would always play SS over him 4. Rafaela has started only 23 games at 2b in his professional career (as opposed to 115 at SS). So expecting him to be better as a 2nd baseman is likely wishful thinking. Rafaela probably needs another couple years of experience to be a quality big league SS, which really isn't his fault. But the Red Sox want him in the lineup everyday and that's the best way for Cora to do it given the players available. Rafaela is currently 15th of 48 in arm strength for SS (with 50+ attempts). UZR has his range at SS at +1 while Statcast has him at -2. All of this. Also, if I understand correctly, UZR and Statcast have him as an average MLB shortstop for range on top of that top third for arm. He needs the hands and focus, which he actually displays in spades on trickier plays. Personally, I haven't been watching when he makes the errors, only the good nights (by chance). When I've seen him, it's been a revelation. Like, ooh and ahh types of plays. The bubble play two nights ago was par for the course for what I've seen, so yeah, I think he can hack it, and will look better soon.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jul 12, 2024 7:46:20 GMT -5
Remember when Duran was a rookie? He looked terrible in the OF. Yet he stuck it out and is now outstanding. Call him an All-Star. Rafaelas is a rookie. Keep that in mind. He's still learning and is a threat batting 9th. Good power. Possibly ROY. Give him another year and he might be an All-Star, too. I've seen a couple of posters upset that the time Rafaela is spending at SS might be costing him in the ROY race. I presume this is because he can't accumulate WAR as well by being basically an average or a little above SS as opposed to a gold-glove caliber CF? But does ROY have to be stat-based? Why couldn't an argument be made that Rafaela's ROY chances should be enhanced, rather than hurt, by his value in playing multiple crucial defensive roles well rather than sticking in one spot? They obviously want him in the lineup every day because they need his XBH and run production from the right side, and being able to slot him in two of the three highest-value defensive positions to maximize lineup flexibility elsewhere makes him an extraordinarily valuable roster commodity. Sure, the guy has offensive warts - with relatively few exceptions these days, who doesn't in this era of three true outcomes? But who's been the best/most valuable rookie PLAYER this year?
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 12, 2024 7:52:12 GMT -5
Remember when Duran was a rookie? He looked terrible in the OF. Yet he stuck it out and is now outstanding. Call him an All-Star. Rafaelas is a rookie. Keep that in mind. He's still learning and is a threat batting 9th. Good power. Possibly ROY. Give him another year and he might be an All-Star, too. I've seen a couple of posters upset that the time Rafaela is spending at SS might be costing him in the ROY race. I presume this is because he can't accumulate WAR as well by being basically an average or a little above SS as opposed to a gold-glove caliber CF? But does ROY have to be stat-based? Why couldn't an argument be made that Rafaela's ROY chances should be enhanced, rather than hurt, by his value in playing multiple crucial defensive roles well rather than sticking in one spot? They obviously want him in the lineup every day because they need his XBH and run production from the right side, and being able to slot him in two of the three highest-value defensive positions to maximize lineup flexibility elsewhere makes him an extraordinarily valuable roster commodity. Sure, the guy has offensive warts - with relatively few exceptions these days, who doesn't in this era of three true outcomes? But who's been the best/most valuable rookie PLAYER this year? I actually kinda agree with this take, Rafaela is playing shortstop because that is where he’s most valuable for the Red Sox (well, at least maybe), but he is still an elite center fielder. It’s to his credit that he’s a capable enough infielder he can move there to let the Red Sox play the rest of their less versatile outfielders on the grass. I’m not saying its definitely fair that it’s hurting his ROY chances, I just think it probably is hurting the chances, rightly or not, because voters these days are gonna look at WAR, and aren’t necessarily going to make the nuanced case you did, at least not enough of them. And when the WAR gap between he and Cowser/Abreu/Miller/Gil is as large as it is it’s going to be hard to overcome, whether or not that’s fair is a different question. Add: though he’s not been average or a little above as a shortstop he’s rated abysmally, so the gap between that and rating as elite in center is what is causing a huge difference between his possible WAR and his actual one. For the whole season if everything stays as it is it’ll cost him like 2 WAR
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 12, 2024 12:25:19 GMT -5
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,016
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 27, 2024 6:29:13 GMT -5
Rafaela on 6/11:
.210 / .237 / .358 (243 PA)
Win Probability Added: -1.81 (4th worst in all of MLB)
Sox 33-34
Starting 6 /12:
.326 / .356 / .527 (135 PA)
Win Probability Added: 1.23 (18th best in all of MLB)
Sox 22-13
Yes, Rafaela turned it around the same day / game (second vs. Phillies) as the team did. Or vice versa.
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