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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by carmenfanzone on Jul 27, 2024 10:20:29 GMT -5
Is it me or does his defense at short seem better the last few weeks? Can anyone tell me if the fielding stats indicate his play is betting better at short?
At one point I thought a better defensive shortstop (along with at least one starter) was a priority for the trading deadline. Now I don't think it is a priority both due to the fact that some other priorities have emerged (relief pitcher, good hitting right hand bat) and because Rafaela seems better defensively.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 27, 2024 10:28:30 GMT -5
In re: "Chasing a Gold Glover": Rafaela now has a combined -3 OAA and +1 DRS. He's great in CF, obviously, but the defensive metrics absolutely HATE him at SS. He's -8 OAA now at that position. On pace for like -35 over a full season as a full-time shortstop.
I looked it up because I actually thought the stats might have stabilized; he had looked okay on the infield lately from what I had seen. But nope, he just keeps sinking. Hamilton, for comparison, has stabilized at -2; he had a bad first week or so but as been league average at SS ever since. Romy is at +1 in 65 innings.
Another week and now he's at -5 OAA and 0 DRS overall. At shortstop he's at -9 OAA and -6 DRS. Are people aware that he's statistically been a hair worse than Kiké at SS? Note the date for when I posted this comment. He's now at -8 OAA and -5 DRS at shortstop so perhaps he's stabilized somewhat since the all-star break. It's only about 7 games though - a tiny sample size for defensive stats.
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tedf
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Post by tedf on Jul 27, 2024 11:48:15 GMT -5
So -8 OAA on July 3 and -8 OAA on July 27? That's still a small sample, but at least a hint of stability. And I expect he will continue to improve for a while with practice.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 27, 2024 12:00:02 GMT -5
Meanwhile, his CF numbers have taken a hit. He's gone from +5 OAA to +2 over the last three weeks despite only playing a few games in CF.
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Jul 27, 2024 12:05:21 GMT -5
Meanwhile, his CF numbers have taken a hit. He's gone from +5 OAA to +2 over the last three weeks despite only playing a few games in CF. That game in Colorado took a toll
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Post by rickasadoorian on Aug 3, 2024 10:41:49 GMT -5
Last 60 games: 235 PA, .302/.332/.476, .379 BAbip. 6bb/60k. For the year, he's at 403 PA, .257/.287/.423, .317 BAbip. 12bb/103k. Doing a quick search on fangraphs, the results of players with a BB/K ratio of .12 or worse with at least 1000 PA since they started tracking the stat in 1943 is... one (non pitcher) player. Rob PiccioloThere are 50 (non pitching) players since 1943 with a BB/K ratio of .20 or worse in 1000+ PA. Of the bunch, the best are Salvador Perez (.20 bb/k, 103 wRC+), Keston Hiura (.20, 102) and Edmuando Sosa (.18, 98). Out of the 50 players, 11 have a wRC+ of >90. If you make the cut off .17, there are 18 players who qualify. 4 of those have a wRC+ of >90. If you make the cut off .15, 7 players qualify. None have a wRC+ of >90. The best is Jorge Alfaro at .12, 86. He's 2nd on the list, right behing Picciolo. For his career, Rafaelas BB/k ratio is .122. For the year, it's .117. Players have had success for a season or 3, but not much long term success. Stating the obvious, but it's something he will have to improve upon. The good news is a lot of the players on the list are recent/current. The bad news is how few players have managed to accumilate 1000+ PA with those BB/K rates. 7 since 1943 at .15 or less? Oi. The leaderboard.
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Post by trotnixon7 on Aug 3, 2024 15:35:12 GMT -5
Last 60 games: 235 PA, .302/.332/.476, .379 BAbip. 6bb/60k. For the year, he's at 403 PA, .257/.287/.423, .317 BAbip. 12bb/103k. Doing a quick search on fangraphs, the results of players with a BB/K ratio of .12 or worse with at least 1000 PA since they started tracking the stat in 1943 is... one (non pitcher) player. Rob PiccioloThere are 50 (non pitching) players since 1943 with a BB/K ratio of .20 or worse in 1000+ PA. Of the bunch, the best are Salvador Perez (.20 bb/k, 103 wRC+), Keston Hiura (.20, 102) and Edmuando Sosa (.18, 98). Out of the 50 players, 11 have a wRC+ of >90. If you make the cut off .17, there are 18 players who qualify. 4 of those have a wRC+ of >90. If you make the cut off .15, 7 players qualify. None have a wRC+ of >90. The best is Jorge Alfaro at .12, 86. He's 2nd on the list, right behing Picciolo. For his career, Rafaelas BB/k ratio is .122. For the year, it's .117. Players have had success for a season or 3, but not much long term success. Stating the obvious, but it's something he will have to improve upon. The good news is a lot of the players on the list are recent/current. The bad news is how few players have managed to accumilate 1000+ PA with those BB/K rates. 7 since 1943 at .15 or less? Oi. The leaderboard.Actually kinda crazy how well he makes it work despite that massive flaw. And I'd have to imagine his defensive metrics improve, he's got too much potential in that area. He has the tools, just needs to clean in up some. Question is, every day CFer or is he a super utility type in the future?
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tjb21
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 3, 2024 15:58:22 GMT -5
Last 60 games: 235 PA, .302/.332/.476, .379 BAbip. 6bb/60k. For the year, he's at 403 PA, .257/.287/.423, .317 BAbip. 12bb/103k. Doing a quick search on fangraphs, the results of players with a BB/K ratio of .12 or worse with at least 1000 PA since they started tracking the stat in 1943 is... one (non pitcher) player. Rob PiccioloThere are 50 (non pitching) players since 1943 with a BB/K ratio of .20 or worse in 1000+ PA. Of the bunch, the best are Salvador Perez (.20 bb/k, 103 wRC+), Keston Hiura (.20, 102) and Edmuando Sosa (.18, 98). Out of the 50 players, 11 have a wRC+ of >90. If you make the cut off .17, there are 18 players who qualify. 4 of those have a wRC+ of >90. If you make the cut off .15, 7 players qualify. None have a wRC+ of >90. The best is Jorge Alfaro at .12, 86. He's 2nd on the list, right behing Picciolo. For his career, Rafaelas BB/k ratio is .122. For the year, it's .117. Players have had success for a season or 3, but not much long term success. Stating the obvious, but it's something he will have to improve upon. The good news is a lot of the players on the list are recent/current. The bad news is how few players have managed to accumilate 1000+ PA with those BB/K rates. 7 since 1943 at .15 or less? Oi. The leaderboard.Actually kinda crazy how well he makes it work despite that massive flaw. And I'd have to imagine his defensive metrics improve, he's got too much potential in that area. He has the tools, just needs to clean in up some. Question is, every day CFer or is he a super utility type in the future? Probably depends on the rest of the roster, and his offensive output.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 3, 2024 18:03:57 GMT -5
I’ve got him in CF next year and winning a Gold Glove.
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Post by keninten on Aug 3, 2024 18:46:47 GMT -5
Could win a GG next year. In a couple years I see him in a Ben Zobrist role. Any injuries, he becomes a starter. Maybe even wins a WS MVP.
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Post by 0ap0 on Aug 4, 2024 9:46:37 GMT -5
As you're seeing with a lot of the low BB/K players being currently active, I suspect the game is simply changing and the older historical approaches aren't as representative of viable modern strategies. It wouldn't surprise me if a) CR doesn't improve this stat a whole lot b) turns out to be a pretty valuable player anyway, and c) finds himself joined by other similar players over the next few years.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 5, 2024 19:21:41 GMT -5
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tedf
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Post by tedf on Aug 6, 2024 9:41:49 GMT -5
In June, Rafaela has the highest whiff rate, 2nd highest chase rate, 2nd highest BABIP in MLB. He has 12 ground ball singles, 5 weakly hit singles, 1 weakly hit double, 2 singles, 2 doubles, and a home run. Not great! But *if* a switch flipped, it happened on June 12th, not June 1st. I mentioned above that I thought he looked as bad as ever only about a week ago, and he hit only .200/.222/.200 from 6/1-6/11. So the question is whether something changed in the last week. Like maybe it's not a coincidence that the home run and three doubles all came within the last week.
I realize that's a really small sample size, but that's exactly why I was curious to see if there's a real change in approach underlying the outcomes.
Hitting .329/.360/.506 since June 12, 2.3% BB, 21.5% K. Largely BABIP improvement, but also a little more contact and a little more power. More hard contact. And he appears to be settling in defensively at shortstop as well? Just one error in his last 26 games there (while errors aren't a great measure, I don't know how to access split stats for other defensive metrics).
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ephus
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Post by ephus on Aug 6, 2024 9:46:22 GMT -5
Rafaela is now up to .260 and every time I am convinced a hot streak is unstainable he rallies. I think it was fair to say that going into this year we felt a .270/ 20 hr season would be a highly improbable ceiling, but the kid has unshakeable confidence and is entertaining af so I'm enjoying the ride.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Aug 6, 2024 9:57:06 GMT -5
If he could get his OBP up to 300+ he'd be in great shape. He isnt walking yet, but I've seen some improvement in his approach. He's not to the point where he has a plan, but he's swinging at fewer obvious balls and hacking a little less. He seems to be seeing the ball well and possibly learning from watching Abreu (just a guess). He also has the ability to spoil pitches and seems to be seeing more pitches per AB. While he'll never be a great on base guy, I think with experience he'll learn to spit on the ones he cant hit.
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Post by jdb on Aug 7, 2024 7:59:01 GMT -5
I wonder what his War would be without those early SS struggles. -7 DRS and -9 OAA there
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Post by awalkinthepark on Aug 7, 2024 9:31:33 GMT -5
With all the talk about the OF going forward, have to say I am very surprised that Rafaela gets talked about as a trade chip. Once he signed the extension I thought that ship sailed, not to mention he's one of the few controlled right handed hitters on the major league roster. I would be pretty shocked if he is moved anytime soon, I think he's going to be a part of this team for the length of the extension.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 7, 2024 9:36:05 GMT -5
With all the talk about the OF going forward, have to say I am very surprised that Rafaela gets talked about as a trade chip. Once he signed the extension I thought that ship sailed, not to mention he's one of the few controlled right handed hitters on the major league roster. I would be pretty shocked if he is moved anytime soon, I think he's going to be a part of this team for the length of the extension. lean towards agreeing here, but I think the biggest thing that’s changed is not Rafaela but Duran going from an average outfielder to an elite center fielder. It makes Rafaela a little more expendable when they already have a guy who can thrive in center. Mayer progressing well and Rafaela struggling defensively at shortstop I think also matter in this calculation to lesser extents
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Post by awalkinthepark on Aug 7, 2024 9:50:31 GMT -5
With all the talk about the OF going forward, have to say I am very surprised that Rafaela gets talked about as a trade chip. Once he signed the extension I thought that ship sailed, not to mention he's one of the few controlled right handed hitters on the major league roster. I would be pretty shocked if he is moved anytime soon, I think he's going to be a part of this team for the length of the extension. lean towards agreeing here, but I think the biggest thing that’s changed is not Rafaela but Duran going from an average outfielder to an elite center fielder. It makes Rafaela a little more expendable when they already have a guy who can thrive in center. Mayer progressing well and Rafaela struggling defensively at shortstop I think also matter in this calculation to lesser extents Weird, I think that it's the other way around. If Duran's stock is up and Rafaela's is down, I would think Duran is the more likely of the 2 to be traded, especially since he'll be entering arbitration. Rafaela's best years are ahead of him, whereas with Duran there is a very good possibility that 2024 is a career year for him given just how high he set the bar.
I guess another way to put it - out of Duran/Rafaela/Abreu/Anthony, I think Rafaela is the least likely of that group to be traded.
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Post by strike23 on Aug 7, 2024 10:18:34 GMT -5
lean towards agreeing here, but I think the biggest thing that’s changed is not Rafaela but Duran going from an average outfielder to an elite center fielder. It makes Rafaela a little more expendable when they already have a guy who can thrive in center. Mayer progressing well and Rafaela struggling defensively at shortstop I think also matter in this calculation to lesser extents Weird, I think that it's the other way around. If Duran's stock is up and Rafaela's is down, I would think Duran is the more likely of the 2 to be traded, especially since he'll be entering arbitration. Rafaela's best years are ahead of him, whereas with Duran there is a very good possibility that 2024 is a career year for him given just how high he set the bar.
I guess another way to put it - out of Duran/Rafaela/Abreu/Anthony, I think Rafaela is the least likely of that group to be traded.
Competitive teams generally keep their best players and trade high level depth, Duran is one of the teams best players, it would be hard to get a return that would make that downgrade worth it.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 7, 2024 10:27:58 GMT -5
Quite frankly I don't think any are really any more or less likely than the next to be dealt out of Rafaela/Abreu/Anthony. Depends on the trade partner and what the other team needs. For example if the Mariners were the trade partner they'd probably want Rafaela or Abreu in a trade since they're already in the majors producing and the Mariners are a team in their competitive window. If the trade partner was the White Sox they'd want Anthony since their team is so bad they'd probably want minor league talent that hasn't had their service clock started. That's probably a relatively simplistic way to look at it but just my 2 cents.
Duran if I had to guess isn't going anywhere.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Aug 7, 2024 10:29:12 GMT -5
Weird, I think that it's the other way around. If Duran's stock is up and Rafaela's is down, I would think Duran is the more likely of the 2 to be traded, especially since he'll be entering arbitration. Rafaela's best years are ahead of him, whereas with Duran there is a very good possibility that 2024 is a career year for him given just how high he set the bar.
I guess another way to put it - out of Duran/Rafaela/Abreu/Anthony, I think Rafaela is the least likely of that group to be traded.
Competitive teams generally keep their best players and trade high level depth, Duran is one of the teams best players, it would be hard to get a return that would make that downgrade worth it. Agreed, I'm not saying Duran is likely going to be traded, I would also be surprised if he got moved soon. I'm just saying that contract status plays into the calculus, and that is a huge point in favor of the Sox keeping Rafaela.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 7, 2024 10:29:20 GMT -5
While there's no mention of trade value, this is borderline trade talk. If it goes much further please take it to the trade subforum.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 7, 2024 10:36:29 GMT -5
It's wild to me how many people want to trade from our current MLB OF, when barely six months ago the entire OF was a huge question mark with many here expecting or even hoping for an Adam Duvall reunion. I say let's give CB2 an A+ when it comes to the OF and roll with the young studs we have for a little while. A lot of people shook their damned heads when thinking back to the 2018 OF and how it suddenly went up in smoke. We've seen that move before, why watch it again?
Edit: Love Ceddy Ballgame and glad he's signed long term. His growth right before our eyes continues to amaze.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Aug 7, 2024 15:02:48 GMT -5
Once guys sign contracts, their surplus value mostly evaporates. If the Sox were considering trading Rafaela they would not have signed him
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