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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Aug 13, 2024 20:56:31 GMT -5
Any consideration of trading Rafaela at this point just seems silly to me.
If Mayer/Anthony/Teel perform at Worcester anything like they have performed to this point, there IS going to have to be a time of reckoning sometime between now and the 2025/2026 offseason with all the position players, but it isn't going to involve Rafaela. At this point, and quite possibly into the future, the Sox are going to NEED his defense and his XBH from the right side. With the lineup so LHH heavy now, Casas hopefully coming back, and all these LHH knocking on the door, something is going to have to give. There's obviously room for Teel as a complement to Wong at the very least, but Mayer and Anthony add to the LHH overload.
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Post by okin15 on Aug 14, 2024 8:31:47 GMT -5
Any consideration of trading Rafaela at this point just seems silly to me. If Mayer/Anthony/Teel perform at Worcester anything like they have performed to this point, there IS going to have to be a time of reckoning sometime between now and the 2025/2026 offseason with all the position players, but it isn't going to involve Rafaela. At this point, and quite possibly into the future, the Sox are going to NEED his defense and his XBH from the right side. With the lineup so LHH heavy now, Casas hopefully coming back, and all these LHH knocking on the door, something is going to have to give. There's obviously room for Teel as a complement to Wong at the very least, but Mayer and Anthony add to the LHH overload. I've been thinking a bunch about this, and I don't feel like it's as big an issue as I once did, though I agree that they probably need to make one change given the current pipline. As currently "projected", there would be two RHH in the lineup for 2027, with three RHH in platoon / bench roles. If you can get that up to four RHH in platoon / bench roles, then you're all set. That would mean three LHH stay in to face lefty starters (Casas, Devers and either Anthony or Duran?).
So you basically need a RHH COF, CIF or DH. You could move some of Yoshida, Abreu, or Hamilton to get that piece, or wait for the likely attrition via injury or under-performance to thin the herd. I mean, what are the chances that all of Duran, Anthony, Abreu, Hamilton, Mayer and Yoshida are available and performing in 2026/27?
I guess you could argue that the quality of the RHH bats isn't good enough, and that might be a little tougher to fix if you don't think Rafaela, Story, Wong, Campbell and Grissom can anchor the lineup against LHP. I guess the hope is that between that group, plus Bleis and Meidroth, you get at least one break-out or return to production, plus the aforementioned addition.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 14, 2024 8:47:18 GMT -5
We can have a totally RH bench once Big 3 make it. Wong, Ref, Grissom and Romy my Homey. Platoons work. Especially, as young lefties develop. Cedanne’s defense in CF is going to keep him in lineup. I have Roman rotating into every OF position with no DH. Sorry Masa. Deal him for an arm.
It doesn’t appear our infield defense is going to be great. Devers - - 3b Marcelo - SS Story - 2b Casas - 1b
A great outfield defense will be a nice off set. Maybe Marcelo and Casas work on it and become plus D players. Story is good at 2b. Raffy has probably had his best year defensively this year. He’s taking a leadership role seriously. I’m pretty sure he will become even more of their leader along with Duran.
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Post by ephus on Aug 14, 2024 8:47:59 GMT -5
Good morning. Ceddanne Rafaela has a WAR of 2.1 and has his batting average of up to .265. He received 13% of his walks for the season last night. This is yor bi-weekly reminder to enjoy the ride of true-to-life enigma. He has truck out 109 times while grounding in to only 6 double plays.
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Post by rickasadoorian on Aug 14, 2024 9:16:04 GMT -5
Good morning. Ceddanne Rafaela has a WAR of 2.1 and has his batting average of up to .265. He received 13% of his walks for the season last night. This is yor bi-weekly reminder to enjoy the ride of true-to-life enigma. He has truck out 109 times while grounding in to only 6 double plays. Huh? He didn't walk at all last night. Do you mean August 9th? Anyway, his OBP is now at .298, fastly approaching that .300 mark. His K% is now under 25.0% for the year too, thanks to 6k in 42 PA this month. FWIW, his fWAR is 1.0. That projects to a 1.4 WAR/162, which is not starter material. Bref has him projected to 2.9, which is an above average regular. ZIPs predicted him to be at 2.1 WAR over 130 games. They had him slashing .261/.300/.426. His actual line is .265/.298/.417. That's insanely close. edit: According to Fangraphs, Hamilton has been worth 1.4 WAR (278 PA), , Ref 1.2 (247), Wong 1.1 (361 PA). Rafaela has 441 PA. Bbref has Hamilton at 2.4, Ref at 0.9 and Wong at 1.9.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 14, 2024 9:20:07 GMT -5
Good morning. Ceddanne Rafaela has a WAR of 2.1 and has his batting average of up to .265. He received 13% of his walks for the season last night. This is yor bi-weekly reminder to enjoy the ride of true-to-life enigma. He has truck out 109 times while grounding in to only 6 double plays. Huh? He didn't walk at all last night. Do you mean August 9th? Anyway, his OBP is now at .298, fastly approaching that .300 mark. His K% is now under 25.0% for the year too, thanks to 6k in 42 PA this month. FWIW, his fWAR is 1.0. That projects to a 1.4 WAR/162, which is not starter material. Bref has him projected to 2.9, which is an above average regular. ZIPs predicted him to be at 2.1 WAR over 130 games. They had him slashing .261/.300/.426. His actual line is .265/.298/.417. That's insanely close. I believe his fWAR #s took quite a hit from his defensive grading at SS from the first few months of the season when he was thrown into the fire. He seems to have stabilized somewhat from what I can tell there but I would have to believe his fWAR could easily be .5-1 higher if he was allowed to just play CF most of the season as was the original plan. I am pretty confident that if he can hit the way he has this season (wRC+ 92) with hopefully an uptick as he develops at the MLB level that he can be a very valuable player to the team.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 14, 2024 9:27:20 GMT -5
He's at 1.0 fWAR overall, but he's also at 1.4 fWAR since May 1st in 331 PAs, a 2.5 WAR/600 pace. And I think we can allow ourselves that kind of selective reading of the stats when we're talking about a rookie adjusting to MLB.
I'm pretty convinced now that he can be at least a 3.5-4 WAR player as a full-time CFer.
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Post by rickasadoorian on Aug 14, 2024 9:47:01 GMT -5
He's at 1.0 fWAR overall, but he's also at 1.4 fWAR since May 1st in 331 PAs, a 2.5 WAR/600 pace. And I think we can allow ourselves that kind of selective reading of the stats when we're talking about a rookie adjusting to MLB. I'm pretty convinced now that he can be at least a 3.5-4 WAR player as a full-time CFer. I could see him developing into a 3.5-4 WAR player, but are you saying you think that's his floor? What do you mean by at least?
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Post by incandenza on Aug 14, 2024 10:05:26 GMT -5
He's at 1.0 fWAR overall, but he's also at 1.4 fWAR since May 1st in 331 PAs, a 2.5 WAR/600 pace. And I think we can allow ourselves that kind of selective reading of the stats when we're talking about a rookie adjusting to MLB. I'm pretty convinced now that he can be at least a 3.5-4 WAR player as a full-time CFer. I could see him developing into a 3.5-4 WAR player, but are you saying you think that's his floor? What do you mean by at least? Not floor; more like a reasonable projection. That's what I meant by "can be at least." And if the bat keeps developing toward, say, a 120 wRC+ and he improves his baserunning he could have some 5-6 WAR seasons, though now that's getting into ceiling talk.
The case I would make for it: as a rookie he is already putting up a 90 wRC+. But by month he has gone: 48, 86, 104, 118, 148. So I do think that 90 wRC+ is close to his floor, given the trend. I also think he would put up 10+ OAA seasons regularly once he cuts out some of the rookie mistakes and has the luxury of playing CF every day.
For comparison, Kiermaier has a career wRC+ of 95 and 13.5 OAA/600 PA and is at almost exactly 4 WAR/600. I don't know if Rafaela can quite match the defense but I do think he can match the offense (which I was not at all convinced of at the beginning of this season).
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Aug 14, 2024 11:24:55 GMT -5
Comments about trading Rafaela confuse me. Sure, fWAR really hasn’t been on his side this year, but his versatility and late game offensive stats are invaluable. He’ll never be the hitter that Abreu is, but someone who plays elite CF, can give you a solid SS (plus 2B & 3B) and has plus speed on a very team friendly contract is someone I wanna keep around.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Aug 14, 2024 12:00:01 GMT -5
Comments about trading Rafaela confuse me. Sure, fWAR really hasn’t been on his side this year, but his versatility and late game offensive stats are invaluable. He’ll never be the hitter that Abreu is, but someone who plays elite CF, can give you a solid SS (plus 2B & 3B) and has plus speed on a very team friendly contract is someone I wanna keep around. Particularly with the recent AAA promotions, the Sox are going to face tough questions with the massive flow of position prospects currently at, or soon to be approaching the MLB level. Maybe not today, but at some point in the not so distant future. Ceddanne is a swiss-army knife and RHH. No matter how they decide to craft the core of the roster over the coming seasons, Rafaela will fit extremely well. That may be his biggest value-add of all. If he plays a different position every night, you can squeeze one more stud into the lineup, whether it be Wilyer, Roman, Braden, Kristian, or someone else. If Ceddanne occupies CF everyday because it's where he is at his best, that will force one additional tough decision.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Aug 14, 2024 12:05:31 GMT -5
Comments about trading Rafaela confuse me. Sure, fWAR really hasn’t been on his side this year, but his versatility and late game offensive stats are invaluable. He’ll never be the hitter that Abreu is, but someone who plays elite CF, can give you a solid SS (plus 2B & 3B) and has plus speed on a very team friendly contract is someone I wanna keep around. Particularly with the recent AAA promotions, the Sox are going to face tough questions with the massive flow of position prospects currently at, or soon to be approaching the MLB level. Maybe not today, but at some point in the not so distant future. Ceddanne is a swiss-army knife and RHH. No matter how they decide to craft the core of the roster over the coming seasons, Rafaela will fit extremely well. That may be his biggest value-add of all. If he plays a different position every night, you can squeeze one more stud into the lineup, whether it be Wilyer, Roman, Braden, Kristian, or someone else. If Ceddanne occupies CF everyday because it's where he is at his best, that will force one additional tough decision. In an odd way, he’s forcing the FO to consider OFs with a higher ceiling as trade capital. It will be super interesting how Craig addresses this in the offseason and next year’s trade deadline.
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Post by harv on Aug 14, 2024 12:47:26 GMT -5
We need more pitching, especially starting pitching,. I don't think anyone disputes that. It does not seem to me that we have much if anything in the system in the way of pitching coming up in the next few years that will help, so we will need to trade something of value to get something of value. LHH outfield is the place were we have the most value we can reasonably part with to acquire a #1/2 starter. I don't know how to determine the relative value of Duran/Rafaela/Abreu/Anthony and who I would most regret losing, but it seems to me this is where we where we have the value to trade that we can live with if we are able to acquire a solid 1/2 starter.
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Post by okin15 on Aug 14, 2024 13:01:31 GMT -5
We need more pitching, especially starting pitching,. I don't think anyone disputes that. It does not seem to me that we have much if anything in the system in the way of pitching coming up in the next few years that will help, so we will need to trade something of value to get something of value. LHH outfield is the place were we have the most value we can reasonably part with to acquire a #1/2 starter. I don't know how to determine the relative value of Duran/Rafaela/Abreu/Anthony and who I would most regret losing, but it seems to me this is where we where we have the value to trade that we can live with if we are able to acquire a solid 1/2 starter. Just a reminder that Rafaela isn't a LHH, so he doesn't really qualify. But yeah, trading Duran this off-season for a #1/2 starter would be a blockbuster, and it would be trading from a position of strength. It would come with a lot of risks (are Abreu, Rafaela and Anthony ready to step in? Is the pitcher going to stay healthy and maintain his level of performance?) And in the short term, they might need another platoon pairing to field the position.
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Post by harv on Aug 14, 2024 13:03:38 GMT -5
Good point, and all good questions. I hope (and expect) Brelow has good answers.
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Post by puzzler on Aug 14, 2024 13:14:59 GMT -5
We need more pitching, especially starting pitching,. I don't think anyone disputes that. It does not seem to me that we have much if anything in the system in the way of pitching coming up in the next few years that will help, so we will need to trade something of value to get something of value. LHH outfield is the place were we have the most value we can reasonably part with to acquire a #1/2 starter. I don't know how to determine the relative value of Duran/Rafaela/Abreu/Anthony and who I would most regret losing, but it seems to me this is where we where we have the value to trade that we can live with if we are able to acquire a solid 1/2 starter. Just a reminder that Rafaela isn't a LHH, so he doesn't really qualify. But yeah, trading Duran this off-season for a #1/2 starter would be a blockbuster, and it would be trading from a position of strength. It would come with a lot of risks (are Abreu, Rafaela and Anthony ready to step in? Is the pitcher going to stay healthy and maintain his level of performance?) And in the short term, they might need another platoon pairing to field the position. This is why platoons should be viewed with more skepticism and also why I rate Abreu below Rafaela. Abreu being a productive player is predicated on Refsnyder continuing to be an excellent backup. At some point, maybe as soon as next season, he might not be. Whereas a player than can produce value without those splits becomes almost more valuable because you don't have to use a spot to shore up that position in a third of the games. It may very well take trading Duran to get a #1/2 starter (Abreu alone won't get it done) but it would be a shame to trade a guy who has the ability and durability to play every single day and then have to rely on a guy who you can't play everyday because of awful splits. To your point on the short term - requiring two outfield platoons is completely untenable for a team that should be fully in the playoff hunt discussion next season.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 14, 2024 14:15:37 GMT -5
We need more pitching, especially starting pitching,. I don't think anyone disputes that. It does not seem to me that we have much if anything in the system in the way of pitching coming up in the next few years that will help, so we will need to trade something of value to get something of value. LHH outfield is the place were we have the most value we can reasonably part with to acquire a #1/2 starter. I don't know how to determine the relative value of Duran/Rafaela/Abreu/Anthony and who I would most regret losing, but it seems to me this is where we where we have the value to trade that we can live with if we are able to acquire a solid 1/2 starter. Just a reminder that Rafaela isn't a LHH, so he doesn't really qualify. But yeah, trading Duran this off-season for a #1/2 starter would be a blockbuster, and it would be trading from a position of strength. It would come with a lot of risks (are Abreu, Rafaela and Anthony ready to step in? Is the pitcher going to stay healthy and maintain his level of performance?) And in the short term, they might need another platoon pairing to field the position. The risk of trading Duran reminds me of the trade of Reggie Smith, after eight seasons of hitting 281 .354 .471 .826 as a CF and a final season of .303 .398 .515 .913 (and all those stats were in a depressed environment), to the Dodgers along with a reliever for platoon OF Bernie Carbo, and innings-eater Rick Wise. Upgraded the rotation, 657 innings in 4 years (only 49 the first year) 3.83FIP 1.282 WHIP, then was a major piece in the Eckersley deal. But Reggie hit .297 .387 .528 .915 in his six years with the Dodgers, and pretty well in four more with the Cardinals and Giants. Carbo of course had one immortal HR.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 14, 2024 18:18:07 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 15, 2024 20:26:31 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 15, 2024 20:26:41 GMT -5
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 15, 2024 21:02:38 GMT -5
Reality check: The Red Sox are not going to trade Ceddanne Rafaela less than a year after signing him to a looooonnnnngggg extension.
Doing so would ensure that none of the the rest of the young crop, whether now in the majors or minors, will consider signing an extension with CB2.
He's not getting traded.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 16, 2024 7:17:09 GMT -5
Reality check: The Red Sox are not going to trade Ceddanne Rafaela less than a year after signing him to a looooonnnnngggg extension.
Doing so would ensure that none of the the rest of the young crop, whether now in the majors or minors, will consider signing an extension with CB2.
He's not getting traded. I don’t think he’ll get traded and I’m not sure it makes any sense to trade him, but it also doesn’t really make sense to deal in absolutes. If there’s a deal Breslow really wants done and Rafaela is the only way to do it, I’m sure it’d be on the table. After what the Clippers did to Blake Griffin I don’t think you can rule anything out.
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pd
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Post by pd on Aug 16, 2024 9:05:34 GMT -5
Great story, but what does that have to do with pink hats?
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Post by LoneStarSox on Aug 16, 2024 9:17:59 GMT -5
Great story, but what does that have to do with pink hats? that’s a good question? Is a feel good story considered pink hat material?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 16, 2024 23:24:24 GMT -5
It fits the general use of the pink hat stories expression, If people object to the expression, I don't give crap.
Yes, good story, nice family, which is why I posted it but I had heard most of it before.
On the other hand I never knew Andrew Jones was from Curacao.
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