SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
9/6-9/8 Red Sox vs. Rays Thread
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 7, 2021 21:14:19 GMT -5
This Tampa lineup is lethal. We can blame the pitching, that is fair, but these guys are doing this to everyone else also.
|
|
|
Post by congusgambler33 on Sept 7, 2021 21:15:23 GMT -5
Believe me, the only reason Hess was pitching is because they had such and imposing lead. He is their lumpadoodle.
|
|
taiwansox
Veteran
Posts: 4,872
Member is Online
|
Post by taiwansox on Sept 7, 2021 21:15:26 GMT -5
.785 OPS, not too bad, really made nice adjustments to fastballs up, our lineup could actually shape up as long as the bullpen dumpster fire stabilizes
|
|
taiwansox
Veteran
Posts: 4,872
Member is Online
|
Post by taiwansox on Sept 7, 2021 21:16:39 GMT -5
We could conceivably see Seattle and Toronto take the two WC spots if we don’t get our act together in Seattle
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 7, 2021 21:19:56 GMT -5
This Tampa lineup is lethal. We can blame the pitching, that is fair, but these guys are doing this to everyone else also. Our defense is playing unspeakably bad. Who saw that coming?
|
|
|
Post by reasonabledoubt on Sept 7, 2021 21:21:53 GMT -5
Yep - it's going to be quite a dog fight for wildcard berths. Too bad we've been more golden retriever than Akita lately.
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 7, 2021 21:22:23 GMT -5
So - playoffs, wild card contenders, last 10 games - MFY, 2-8. Red Sox, 4-6 (including losing 3 in a row after winning 4 in a row), Toronto 9-1, Seattle 6-4 (they are currently ahead of the Astros tonight), Oakland 4-6 (currently tied with the Chi Sox 1-1). It's going to be a wild ride.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 7, 2021 21:26:10 GMT -5
even in the loss, i am happy for Bobby's Bombs. I am one of about 3 or 4 people on this whole site that wasn't ready to send the guy down. I would brag about it being a part of my keen sense of baseball judgement, but my humility will not allow such talk.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,648
Member is Online
|
Post by cdj on Sept 7, 2021 21:33:47 GMT -5
even in the loss, i am happy for Bobby's Bombs. I am one of about 3 or 4 people on this whole site that wasn't ready to send the guy down. I would brag about it being a part of my keen sense of baseball judgement, but my humility will not allow such talk. There’s a chance tonight brings him above water in WAR on bbref
|
|
|
Post by kjkramer on Sept 7, 2021 21:34:20 GMT -5
Bobby making a run at ROY all of a sudden
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,648
Member is Online
|
Post by cdj on Sept 7, 2021 21:35:28 GMT -5
Bobby making a run at ROY all of a sudden Wander
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 7, 2021 21:38:34 GMT -5
Wondering if ERod was tipping his pitches - they were ripping him. Or - did they change things up enough - it wasn't long since he faced Tampa (and pitched well). the other thing - he sailed through the first, but just looked less crisp and focused once he came out for the second. Very odd.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 7, 2021 22:50:15 GMT -5
Hate to say it but today's game was predictable. The best high leverage relievers weren't available so the worst thing that could happen was losing another close game, but fortunately E-Rod saw to it that the game wasn't close.
For a guy whose FIP is so good, why the hell does he give up so many damn runs? They needed a strong start by him and instead he sucked. I was busy with other stuff but when I finally got a chance to sit down I thought to myself, I bet it's 6-1 TB. Flicked the TV on and it was 7-1 TB.
Peacock was brutal to watch. The guy's ERA was 7 in AAA and it's not hard to see why that was. I'd say he's cooked. Feliz gave up 2 HRs.
But Bobby D looked great again. I think that soxfansince67 has a point. Perhaps they should sit down JDM instead of Dalbec, while Dalbec is blazing hot as crazy as that sounds. I mean JDM hasn't been great since May, but it's hard to imagine that I'd ever sit him down in favor of Dalbec but for the time being....Schwarber at DH and Dalbec at 1b with Kiké in CF and Arroyo at 2b when he's back.
It's almost like Dalbec has a lot of JBJ in him. When JBJ was cold he was awful for brutally long stretches but when he did heat up, he was scorching hot. Dalbec has been that. Terrible for 4 months and awesome ever since.
I'd like to think that this is Dalbec, a guy who figured it all out, but I kept saying the same thing about JBJ and then he'd go into the tank for a few months. I suspect that's Dalbec, too. But the guy is hitting so he needs to play until he's not.
Beyond that all I can say is that the half game that separates the Sox from the Yanks feels a lot larger than the 2 games (even in the loss column) that separates the Sox from the Jays and the 2.5 games from the Mariners and A's.
It's scary but I'm looking at the schedule expecting the Sox to get swept at Fenway with their top 3 starters going - they really, really needed to win that first game. They'll probably lose 4 of 6 if not worse on the road as they play a good White Sox team and never really do well on the West Coast. So if they lose 5 of their next 7, somebody or everybody will catch them. They are in a precarious spot and it shouldn't be as precarious as it is - they had a 4 game lead just a few days ago and lost two winnable games to Cleveland and TB.
I thought they'd make the wild card game. With each passing day I grow more unsure of that.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Sept 7, 2021 23:04:37 GMT -5
So if they lose 5 of their next 7, somebody or everybody will catch them. They are in a precarious spot and it shouldn't be as precarious as it is - they had a 4 game lead just a few days ago and lost two winnable games to Cleveland and TB. I thought they'd make the wild card game. With each passing day I grow more unsure of that. You're somehow talking yourself into the premise that they'll go 2-5 in their next 7, which seems... pessimistic. But even if it happens check out the rest of their schedule after that:
BAL x6 (split home/road)
WSN x3 (road)
NYY x3 (at home)
NYM x2 (at home)
Presumably they'll be able to field a full squad by then too. It's a good way to close out their schedule, especially as the Jays and Yankees still have games to go against the Rays, and each other.
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 7, 2021 23:29:16 GMT -5
My main lingering questions - why is this team so poor on defense at this point of the season? and why is this team so poor at driving in runners on base in scoring position?
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 7, 2021 23:49:24 GMT -5
So if they lose 5 of their next 7, somebody or everybody will catch them. They are in a precarious spot and it shouldn't be as precarious as it is - they had a 4 game lead just a few days ago and lost two winnable games to Cleveland and TB. I thought they'd make the wild card game. With each passing day I grow more unsure of that. You're somehow talking yourself into the premise that they'll go 2-5 in their next 7, which seems... pessimistic. But even if it happens check out the rest of their schedule after that: BAL x6 (split home/road)
WSN x3 (road)
NYY x3 (at home)
NYM x2 (at home)
Presumably they'll be able to field a full squad by then too. It's a good way to close out their schedule, especially as the Jays and Yankees still have games to go against the Rays, and each other.
I don't think I'm being overly pessimistic here. If I told you in July that the Sox would struggle mightily, go from being up 4.5 games in the division to being 10 out, from being double digit games ahead of NY and Toronto to where they are now, I'm sure you would have said I was being unnecessarily pessimistic yet here we are. At some point you have to be realistic about what you're seeing and you can't always be "positive" just for the sake of being positive if that's not what you're seeing. Then pen is still unsettled and the team has been fundamentally flawed for awhile now and that's been hurting them for awhile, even before the team got impacted by covid. But I do agree with your point beyond the next 7 games. I figure they take 4 of 6 from Baltimore (Means will beat them and they'll probably lose another game to them that they shouldn't). I think they probably split the Mets games and take 2 of 3 from Washington. And I think they'll take 1 of 3 against NYY as I don't trust them at this point to take 2 of 3 at home against them like they should. So when I do the math, I get 89-73. Don't know if that makes the 2nd spot of the wild card or not. It might although it'll be close. And if I'm wrong (well it wouldn't be the first time and it won't be the last time) and they fare a lot better than what I'm seeing, then great. Beat NY in the wild card and it's all good.
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 8, 2021 7:13:32 GMT -5
Bobby making a run at ROY all of a sudden Wander Still Adolis Garcias award to lose. If Wander broke camp he's probably the leader by a wide margin. You can't overlook the body of work that Garcia has put up just because he's in a slump.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,648
Member is Online
|
Post by cdj on Sept 8, 2021 8:11:26 GMT -5
Still Adolis Garcias award to lose. If Wander broke camp he's probably the leader by a wide margin. You can't overlook the body of work that Garcia has put up just because he's in a slump. Another month of Wander being Wander and we’ll see where we are at
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Sept 8, 2021 8:50:51 GMT -5
You're somehow talking yourself into the premise that they'll go 2-5 in their next 7, which seems... pessimistic. But even if it happens check out the rest of their schedule after that: BAL x6 (split home/road)
WSN x3 (road)
NYY x3 (at home)
NYM x2 (at home)
Presumably they'll be able to field a full squad by then too. It's a good way to close out their schedule, especially as the Jays and Yankees still have games to go against the Rays, and each other.
I don't think I'm being overly pessimistic here. If I told you in July that the Sox would struggle mightily, go from being up 4.5 games in the division to being 10 out, from being double digit games ahead of NY and Toronto to where they are now, I'm sure you would have said I was being unnecessarily pessimistic yet here we are. At some point you have to be realistic about what you're seeing and you can't always be "positive" just for the sake of being positive if that's not what you're seeing. Then pen is still unsettled and the team has been fundamentally flawed for awhile now and that's been hurting them for awhile, even before the team got impacted by covid. But I do agree with your point beyond the next 7 games. I figure they take 4 of 6 from Baltimore (Means will beat them and they'll probably lose another game to them that they shouldn't). I think they probably split the Mets games and take 2 of 3 from Washington. And I think they'll take 1 of 3 against NYY as I don't trust them at this point to take 2 of 3 at home against them like they should. So when I do the math, I get 89-73. Don't know if that makes the 2nd spot of the wild card or not. It might although it'll be close. And if I'm wrong (well it wouldn't be the first time and it won't be the last time) and they fare a lot better than what I'm seeing, then great. Beat NY in the wild card and it's all good. You're predicting them to be below .500 the rest of the way despite an easier than average schedule. I'll just note that they're 12-11 since Sale joined the rotation, and that's despite the covidgeddon that's struck the team.
And also that I'm not just positive for the sake of being positive; fangraphs projects them for 91 wins (12-9 the rest of the way) and I don't know what special reasons there are to doubt that projection. "The team has been fundamentally flawed for a while now." I just don't know what this is supposed to mean. They have weaknesses, like every other team fighting for a wild card spot. But they've sccored 5.8 runs/game since Schwarber joined the lineup and the starting rotation is very solid. That just isn't a below-.500 team to me.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,648
Member is Online
|
Post by cdj on Sept 8, 2021 8:54:31 GMT -5
Salvage the series with a big win tonight
Who is pitching?
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Sept 8, 2021 9:15:59 GMT -5
So here's a comparison for ya:
wRC+ since:
| Bobby D
| JD Martinez
| 4/1 | 107 | 128 | 4/13 | 115 | 114
| 5/1 | 117 | 108 | 6/1 | 130 | 106 | 7/1 | 144 | 106 | 8/1 | 213 | 102 |
Dalbec has basically matched JDM since the second week of the season, and he's been much better more recently. In fact among the current regulars, JDM has been the worst hitter in the lineup save Vazquez since early May.
YMMV as to whether this is more decline or slump, but there's a decent case for effectively platooning JD and Verdugo (JD at DH and Schwarber in LF against lefties; Schwarber at DH and Verdugo in LF against righties), with JD as the short end of the platoon, while playing Dalbc every day.
|
|
taiwansox
Veteran
Posts: 4,872
Member is Online
|
Post by taiwansox on Sept 8, 2021 10:31:46 GMT -5
So here's a comparison for ya:
wRC+ since:
| Bobby D
| JD Martinez
| 4/1 | 107 | 128 | 4/13 | 115 | 114
| 5/1 | 117 | 108 | 6/1 | 130 | 106 | 7/1 | 144 | 106 | 8/1 | 213 | 102 |
Dalbec has basically matched JDM since the second week of the season, and he's been much better more recently. In fact among the current regulars, JDM has been the worst hitter in the lineup save Vazquez since early May.
YMMV as to whether this is more decline or slump, but there's a decent case for effectively platooning JD and Verdugo (JD at DH and Schwarber in LF against lefties; Schwarber at DH and Verdugo in LF against righties), with JD as the short end of the platoon, while playing Dalbc every day.
That’s really startling. JDM’s season, especially power-wise has been buoyed by those initial series against BAL. Also, he’s 6th in the league in GDP with 17. No way he’s opting out, but we should definitely consider eating his contract
|
|
shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,845
|
Post by shagworthy on Sept 8, 2021 10:45:39 GMT -5
My main lingering questions - why is this team so poor on defense at this point of the season? and why is this team so poor at driving in runners on base in scoring position? I think loosing a keystone like JBJ in CF really hurt us. Don't get me wrong, Kiké has been great when out there, but the Sox seem intent on the "moving pieces" strategy in the field. If you have one guy who is doing that, I can see it work, but when you have multiple guys playing multiple positions day in and out you loose a little feel for each position. Look at Verdugo last year in RF, and look at him this year in LF and CF? He looks average at best and last year I felt he was an above average defender. Our infield has been equally as porous, although Devers turned a corner in that regard, you have a main SS who has no range to his left or right, Arroyo has been on the IL more than he's been available, which means it's been a veritable round robin at 2b with the following players all having at least one appearance there: Christian Arroyo Enrique Hernandez Marwin Gonzalez Michael Chavis Jonathan Arauz Jack Lopez Yairo Munoz Taylor Motter Christian Vazquez Rafael Devers Aside from Marwin and Arroyo everyone else has been below average defensively @2b, including Kiké. Which is a long way of saying I think they overvalued utility over familiarity at their own peril.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 8, 2021 10:47:28 GMT -5
I don't think I'm being overly pessimistic here. If I told you in July that the Sox would struggle mightily, go from being up 4.5 games in the division to being 10 out, from being double digit games ahead of NY and Toronto to where they are now, I'm sure you would have said I was being unnecessarily pessimistic yet here we are. At some point you have to be realistic about what you're seeing and you can't always be "positive" just for the sake of being positive if that's not what you're seeing. Then pen is still unsettled and the team has been fundamentally flawed for awhile now and that's been hurting them for awhile, even before the team got impacted by covid. But I do agree with your point beyond the next 7 games. I figure they take 4 of 6 from Baltimore (Means will beat them and they'll probably lose another game to them that they shouldn't). I think they probably split the Mets games and take 2 of 3 from Washington. And I think they'll take 1 of 3 against NYY as I don't trust them at this point to take 2 of 3 at home against them like they should. So when I do the math, I get 89-73. Don't know if that makes the 2nd spot of the wild card or not. It might although it'll be close. And if I'm wrong (well it wouldn't be the first time and it won't be the last time) and they fare a lot better than what I'm seeing, then great. Beat NY in the wild card and it's all good. You're predicting them to be below .500 the rest of the way despite an easier than average schedule. I'll just note that they're 12-11 since Sale joined the rotation, and that's despite the covidgeddon that's struck the team.
And also that I'm not just positive for the sake of being positive; fangraphs projects them for 91 wins (12-9 the rest of the way) and I don't know what special reasons there are to doubt that projection. "The team has been fundamentally flawed for a while now." I just don't know what this is supposed to mean. They have weaknesses, like every other team fighting for a wild card spot. But they've sccored 5.8 runs/game since Schwarber joined the lineup and the starting rotation is very solid. That just isn't a below-.500 team to me.
This is one of your YMMV situations. Fangraphs projecting them to win 91 doesn't do a ton for me and it's not like I'm projecting to win 85 and we're way off. What I mean by fundamentally flawed is that this team has been making too many mistakes in which they give opponents extra baserunners and extra outs and it's costing them. They're failing to execute in key situations too often. Too many times where they're down a run or two and have runners in scoring position with none or one out and are failing to deliver the runners. Too many baserunning mistakes. Plus they're not as trustworthy in close games as much anymore because the bullpen is sort of out of order. It's chaotic. It was well organized and working well when Barnes was succeeding as closer but the structure has crumbled since then. I mean, really, if they're playing the Yankees or TB or Cleveland or whoever and it's 5-3 in the 7th you feel like it's airtight? I did a couple of months ago. I don't now. So I have them at 11-12 going down the stretch. I don't think anybody's crazy to put them at 13-10 but I don't think it's nuts to see 11-12. Going on the road to Chicago and Seattle are not easy games. I figure 2-4 is what I'd expect given they're on the road although I'd hope for at least 3-3. I have them winning 4 of 6 against Baltimore. That's reasonable. You know John Means gives them fits when he pitches against them and sooner or later the Sox are due to lose a game or two against them. I can buy 5-1, but 4-2 isn't that unreasonable. I'd like to say 2-1 against the Yankees at home, but I think if the Yankees put any pressure on the Sox at this point with the way the pen is or the defense is, it could be problematic. Have them 1-2. Hope it's at least 2-1. They could go 2-0 against a lousy Mets team. I have them 1-1. I could see it the other way, too. They could sweep a crappy Washington team playing out the string on the road, but I think 2-1 is a more reasonable expectation. Conservatively I have them 11-12. I had them 1-2 against TB this series, but given the way they lost the first game and the fact that it burned out their pen and that even the best the Sox got, Whitlock, who is probably not available tonight, has gotten hit around by the Rays, it's hard for me to pencil in a win, but hey, let's hope they score a ton of runs tonight and Eovaldi can go 7 masterful innings and make the lead so large that the Sox pen can't mess it up. If that happens then I revise my projection to 90 wins (hey if Fangraphs can revise their projections, so can I!). Honestly even if it is 89, 90, or 91, is it enough to be the 2nd wild card? I think so, but I'm more uncertain as either Toronto is simply just hot or is finally just in time playing like they should have been playing all along. I mean in my opinion, Toronto is the 2nd best team in the division. And Tampa has proven that somehow someway they're head and shoulders above the rest of the division and I'll be curious to see if it's the league as well. I would think it has to be. They have the best record and the East is tougher than the Central or West.
|
|
|
Post by congusgambler33 on Sept 8, 2021 11:33:18 GMT -5
Hate to say it but today's game was predictable. The best high leverage relievers weren't available so the worst thing that could happen was losing another close game, but fortunately E-Rod saw to it that the game wasn't close. For a guy whose FIP is so good, why the hell does he give up so many damn runs? They needed a strong start by him and instead he sucked. I was busy with other stuff but when I finally got a chance to sit down I thought to myself, I bet it's 6-1 TB. Flicked the TV on and it was 7-1 TB. Peacock was brutal to watch. The guy's ERA was 7 in AAA and it's not hard to see why that was. I'd say he's cooked. Feliz gave up 2 HRs. But Bobby D looked great again. I think that soxfansince67 has a point. Perhaps they should sit down JDM instead of Dalbec, while Dalbec is blazing hot as crazy as that sounds. I mean JDM hasn't been great since May, but it's hard to imagine that I'd ever sit him down in favor of Dalbec but for the time being....Schwarber at DH and Dalbec at 1b with Kiké in CF and Arroyo at 2b when he's back. It's almost like Dalbec has a lot of JBJ in him. When JBJ was cold he was awful for brutally long stretches but when he did heat up, he was scorching hot. Dalbec has been that. Terrible for 4 months and awesome ever since. I'd like to think that this is Dalbec, a guy who figured it all out, but I kept saying the same thing about JBJ and then he'd go into the tank for a few months. I suspect that's Dalbec, too. But the guy is hitting so he needs to play until he's not. Beyond that all I can say is that the half game that separates the Sox from the Yanks feels a lot larger than the 2 games (even in the loss column) that separates the Sox from the Jays and the 2.5 games from the Mariners and A's. It's scary but I'm looking at the schedule expecting the Sox to get swept at Fenway with their top 3 starters going - they really, really needed to win that first game. They'll probably lose 4 of 6 if not worse on the road as they play a good White Sox team and never really do well on the West Coast. So if they lose 5 of their next 7, somebody or everybody will catch them. They are in a precarious spot and it shouldn't be as precarious as it is - they had a 4 game lead just a few days ago and lost two winnable games to Cleveland and TB. I thought they'd make the wild card game. With each passing day I grow more unsure of that.
JBJ would be happy to see the Mendoza line. He hasn't been above it the whole year.
|
|
|