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Patriots 2021 season thread
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 18, 2021 21:18:44 GMT -5
Per Sportrac they have over 31 million in space next year, so they aren't out of money. It was rather clear they overpaid Agholor, Smith and Henry. Yet those guys are 28, 26 and 27. Mills is 27, Wise is 27, Godchaux is 27, heck only Judon is really old and he's 29. So I really don't buy they are only going to get worse from now. Add in Bourne is 26. I think you can make the case most have many years of top play left and that a bunch can get better. In 2022, they'll have a bunch of holes to fill (passing RB, starting RT, both starting ILBs, both starting safeties, lead cornerback) with Agholor counting for $15M against the cap, Henry counting for $15M against the cap, Smith counting for $13.8M against the cap, and not really being able to save much money by cutting any of those guys (or most of their other free agent signings). That's a problem. You've essentially locked in that core and are relying on them to bounce back/improve, which I'm not particularly optimistic about. Sure I've said since day one those were overpays for what those players are. Luckily Agholor is only two years, yet I just don't see how those guys decline. You can do a ton with 31 million in today's NFL and you have 139 million in cap space for 2023. Which shows that you have zero worries about long-term money. I'm just pissed he spent elite money on non elite offensive weapons. Yet he's got four more years of Mac Jones making almost nothing. So he better keep spending. |
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Post by jmei on Oct 19, 2021 7:32:40 GMT -5
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 19, 2021 9:14:19 GMT -5
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 19, 2021 9:14:37 GMT -5
Agreed with Rich
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 19, 2021 9:17:21 GMT -5
After competing with the Bucs and Cowboys to the very end I am optimistic this team is heading in the right direction. Don't forget that under BB the Pats have a history of getting better as the season goes on. And given the roster turnover I would expect that to be an even bigger factor than normal.
They have 11 games left and could very well go on a run given what I have seen. They have had some very up and very down moments and I am confident that BB hasn't given up coaching the heck out of those down moments.
Mac Jones has been really really good so far and I hope Josh starts to open things up more. The running game looks like it is improving so that should help open things up.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 19, 2021 9:23:48 GMT -5
The problem is the coaching has been pathetic this season. Don’t give me this rookie QB bullshit with the conservative play calling. 4 and 3 and you punt to a juggernaut offense that just needs a FG to win? They’d been in FG range the entire game. Your QB is completing over 70% of his passes. Go for it! And that’s not the only example this year of having no spine. I don’t even recognize 4th and 2 Bill. He’s left the building and better return.
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Post by jmei on Oct 19, 2021 9:54:00 GMT -5
Their schedule the rest of the way has some tough games left. At Chargers, two games against the Bills and games against the Browns, Titans and Colts. They probably have to go 8-3 or 7-4 the rest of the way to make a playoff spot, which is still possible but leaves no margin for error.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 19, 2021 11:15:29 GMT -5
True and true on the last 2 comments.
BB should have gone for it in OT.
In regards to the Pats making the playoffs, yes obvious longshot. But take a look at the standings and you only see one 5-1 team. Not many teams running away in the AFC and some of the 4-2 teams are suspect. This is shaping up to be a crazy season parity wise IMO.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 19, 2021 11:49:27 GMT -5
Fantasy football? You are the one that laughed at me for using Fantasy numbers to look at production. Those numbers are probably legit given how short so many players careers are, yet that's also the issue. The top TEs stay good players for years. You are the only person I've ever heard talk about surplus value and NFL free agents. This isn’t Baseball, there's no war and cost per war to create surplus value. Look at Gilmore as the perfect reason why that is rather crazy in Football. If you did want to try and look at that, Mac Jones has about as much surplus value as any player in the league right now. Football isn't Baseball, a good draft is where you find surplus value. |
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 19, 2021 12:00:30 GMT -5
After competing with the Bucs and Cowboys to the very end I am optimistic this team is heading in the right direction. Don't forget that under BB the Pats have a history of getting better as the season goes on. And given the roster turnover I would expect that to be an even bigger factor than normal. They have 11 games left and could very well go on a run given what I have seen. They have had some very up and very down moments and I am confident that BB hasn't given up coaching the heck out of those down moments. Mac Jones has been really really good so far and I hope Josh starts to open things up more. The running game looks like it is improving so that should help open things up. The last two seasons the Patriots actually got worse as the year went on. In 2019 they fell off a cliff after their undefeated start, going 2-4 in their final six games including the playoff loss (4-5 in their final nine). Last year they actually looked decent to start the year (2-2, but the losses were a narrow loss to Seattle and a competitive game with KC until the end) before falling off a cliff. I give last year a pass with the COVID impact, but the team did briefly start playing better football again in the middle part of the year before losing 3 of the final 4 with the only win occurring against the Jets in the finale. I don't think we can bank on a big improvement just because 01-18 teams generally did, but with the amount of new players it's at least something we can hope for. Most of their losses have occurred against NFC teams so that's helpful for tiebreakers, but this team is still in a terrible spot. Their record dating back to the final six games of the Tom Brady era is 11-17. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 19, 2021 15:46:49 GMT -5
Umm they forced a punt, gave up one TD and three FG tries, with one missing. If we're being honest, forcing them to take a long FG was rather logical. You seem to be mixing up halfs. The last four drives before OT the Cowboys went 80 yards, 66 yards, 50 yards, and 55 yards (not including the final 80 yard game winning TD drive). The punt gave the Cowboys the ball at the 20, picking up 34 yards of field position. Bill in his postgame comments suggested Zuerlein's big leg contributed to the decision to punt. Bill was banking on the Cowboys having their worst drive since the punt on their first possession of the second half, or the kicker to miss again (despite saying he had a big leg, which is the reason he didn't want to risk field position in the first place), because even their second worst drive of the second half went 50 yards, which would've put the Cowboys in range of a likely game winning field goal. Bill was counting on the Patriots defense putting together one of their best three series of the entire game (given the turnovers happened when they were already in FG range) at at time when they were gassed and had literally kept them out of field goal range only twice: the drive to open the game, and their first drive after half. I'm being honest here, and I think it's far from logical, both analytically and based on the actual game results we'd seen from that point. The Pats chances to convert on 4th were probably less than 50%, but the gain in field position didn't offset the likelihood of the Cowboys scoring on their next possession. They could've lost either way, but I'd feel better about being aggressive and simply not making the play than playing it out and waiting for the inevitable. If I'm looking at this the way I think Bill was thinking. The first issue is I don't think he expects a 34 yard punt, I have to believe he was trusting his special teams to get that inside the ten or if lucky inside the five. Thus making it much harder and trusting his D to make a few plays. While also acknowledging while that kicker has a big leg, all his FGs were moving like crazy and his trusted special teamers could potentially get close enough again to make it even harder. Bill will always trust his D, outside a few exceptions like that Payton Manning game years ago. They fail, he works to fix them and get them ready for next time. I do wonder if his Son is the right guy to be running that D though, he's very up and down. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 19, 2021 15:51:51 GMT -5
After competing with the Bucs and Cowboys to the very end I am optimistic this team is heading in the right direction. Don't forget that under BB the Pats have a history of getting better as the season goes on. And given the roster turnover I would expect that to be an even bigger factor than normal. They have 11 games left and could very well go on a run given what I have seen. They have had some very up and very down moments and I am confident that BB hasn't given up coaching the heck out of those down moments. Mac Jones has been really really good so far and I hope Josh starts to open things up more. The running game looks like it is improving so that should help open things up. The last two seasons the Patriots actually got worse as the year went on. In 2019 they fell off a cliff after their undefeated start, going 2-4 in their final six games including the playoff loss (4-5 in their final nine). Last year they actually looked decent to start the year (2-2, but the losses were a narrow loss to Seattle and a competitive game with KC until the end) before falling off a cliff. I give last year a pass with the COVID impact, but the team did briefly start playing better football again in the middle part of the year before losing 3 of the final 4 with the only win occurring against the Jets in the finale. I don't think we can bank on a big improvement just because 01-18 teams generally did, but with the amount of new players it's at least something we can hope for. Most of their losses have occurred against NFC teams so that's helpful for tiebreakers, but this team is still in a terrible spot. Their record dating back to the final six games of the Tom Brady era is 11-17. 2019 was the Gordon, Brown and Sanu saga, all guys Brady wanted. Look at Meyers, he would seem to be the perfect WR for Brady in our offense and Brady had him benched! I place a good amount of blame on Brady and it makes sense knowing what we know now. Why spend time developing with a young WR when you are likely leaving? |
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 19, 2021 16:34:57 GMT -5
The last four drives before OT the Cowboys went 80 yards, 66 yards, 50 yards, and 55 yards (not including the final 80 yard game winning TD drive). The punt gave the Cowboys the ball at the 20, picking up 34 yards of field position. Bill in his postgame comments suggested Zuerlein's big leg contributed to the decision to punt. Bill was banking on the Cowboys having their worst drive since the punt on their first possession of the second half, or the kicker to miss again (despite saying he had a big leg, which is the reason he didn't want to risk field position in the first place), because even their second worst drive of the second half went 50 yards, which would've put the Cowboys in range of a likely game winning field goal. Bill was counting on the Patriots defense putting together one of their best three series of the entire game (given the turnovers happened when they were already in FG range) at at time when they were gassed and had literally kept them out of field goal range only twice: the drive to open the game, and their first drive after half. I'm being honest here, and I think it's far from logical, both analytically and based on the actual game results we'd seen from that point. The Pats chances to convert on 4th were probably less than 50%, but the gain in field position didn't offset the likelihood of the Cowboys scoring on their next possession. They could've lost either way, but I'd feel better about being aggressive and simply not making the play than playing it out and waiting for the inevitable. If I'm looking at this the way I think Bill was thinking. The first issue is I don't think he expects a 34 yard punt, I have to believe he was trusting his special teams to get that inside the ten or if lucky inside the five. Thus making it much harder and trusting his D to make a few plays. While also acknowledging while that kicker has a big leg, all his FGs were moving like crazy and his trusted special teamers could potentially get close enough again to make it even harder. Bill will always trust his D, outside a few exceptions like that Payton Manning game years ago. They fail, he works to fix them and get them ready for next time. I do wonder if his Son is the right guy to be running that D though, he's very up and down. I think BB punted hoping like he always does that the other team would make enough mistakes to lose. That has been his MO forever and Dallas had proven him right many times already during that game. Another thing I was thinking about the Pats O is that for the past 20 years that offense has always had and succeeded with a great slot receiver. Maybe that is a big deal with the success of that offense and the dinking and dunking, it is definitely missing. |
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 19, 2021 16:36:52 GMT -5
I understand the criticism for punting in OT, but not the criticism for running the clock out in the first half with 24 seconds left on their own 25.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 19, 2021 17:41:00 GMT -5
I understand the criticism for punting in OT, but not the criticism for running the clock out in the first half with 24 seconds left on their own 25.They had 1:30 left. I think I remember Bill taking two timeouts before the two minute warning when the Cowboys were driving specifically to save time for a final drive before half. Then, the Cowboys didn't score and lost the ball. Then, Bill seemingly changed his mind, content to just get the ball after half with the lead. It wasn't nearly as bad as the OT decision, but I still don't like it and it fits a recent pattern of overly conservative in-game decision making. It felt like he didn't want to risk losing "momentum" after a positive stop on defense, but when you're going up against an elite offense and it's only half a four point lead is far from safe. Taking away a possession puts more pressure on the offense, not less. To that point in the game, the Pats had only 14(!!!!) offensive snaps. The field position clearly wasn't on their side, but it's 2021, and if you're more afraid of a turnover than picking up yards for a FG attempt you've got an inadequate offense or you're too conservative of a coach. If they were down 14 points there's no doubt they'd at least try a drive there. I don't like going into safe mode in that particular game with a half still to be played. He didn't have to go all out and risk a turnover or a quick three and out, just something more than a complete give up. |
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 19, 2021 17:49:00 GMT -5
I understand the criticism for punting in OT, but not the criticism for running the clock out in the first half with 24 seconds left on their own 25.They had 1:30 left. I think I remember Bill taking two timeouts before the two minute warning when the Cowboys were driving specifically to save time for a final drive before half. Then, the Cowboys didn't score and lost the ball. Then, Bill seemingly changed his mind, content to just get the ball after half with the lead. It wasn't nearly as bad as the OT decision, but I still don't like it and it fits a recent pattern of overly conservative in-game decision making. It felt like he didn't want to risk losing "momentum" after a positive stop on defense, but when you're going up against an elite offense and it's only half a four point lead is far from safe. Taking away a possession puts more pressure on the offense, not less. To that point in the game, the Pats had only 14(!!!!) offensive snaps. The field position clearly wasn't on their side, but it's 2021, and if you're more afraid of a turnover than picking up yards for a FG attempt you've got an inadequate offense or you're too conservative of a coach. If they were down 14 points there's no doubt they'd at least try a drive there. I don't like going into safe mode in that particular game with a half still to be played. He didn't have to go all out and risk a turnover or a quick three and out, just something more than a complete give up. Sorry, I must be thinking of a different game. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 21, 2021 11:45:48 GMT -5
So does anyone have information saying Bill traded Gilmore because he wouldn't take a paycut? If that's true it's the worst trade in history. He's clearly worth 5.7 million for the rest of the year and you'd get a higher comp pick than a 6th when he leaves.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 21, 2021 12:45:57 GMT -5
So does anyone have information saying Bill traded Gilmore because he wouldn't take a paycut? If that's true it's the worst trade in history. He's clearly worth 5.7 million for the rest of the year and you'd get a higher comp pick than a 6th when he leaves. I think i was wrong - they offered him a restructure where her actually get a bit more but lower his number this year. They were trying to make room to sign Collins. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 21, 2021 14:34:17 GMT -5
So does anyone have information saying Bill traded Gilmore because he wouldn't take a paycut? If that's true it's the worst trade in history. He's clearly worth 5.7 million for the rest of the year and you'd get a higher comp pick than a 6th when he leaves. I think i was wrong - they offered him a restructure where her actually get a bit more but lower his number this year. They were trying to make room to sign Collins. Only way to give him more was something like that, an extra year that voids like with Brady. He turns it down, yet says he'll play for the 5.7 million with the Jags. That's not a massive dick move in your book? I wish he just demanded a trade. We would have got more in value around the draft and could have added another CB. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 21, 2021 15:01:09 GMT -5
I think i was wrong - they offered him a restructure where her actually get a bit more but lower his number this year. They were trying to make room to sign Collins. Only way to give him more was something like that, an extra year that voids like with Brady. He turns it down, yet says he'll play for the 5.7 million with the Jags. That's not a massive dick move in your book? I wish he just demanded a trade. We would have got more in value around the draft and could have added another CB. It doesn’t compare to what Simmons is doing. |
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 24, 2021 13:11:07 GMT -5
I would like to think the Patriots were really this good but I think the Jets are just plain terrible. At least it is giving them a chance to be more aggressive with the play calling.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,867 
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Post by cdj on Oct 24, 2021 13:43:28 GMT -5
We are better than the Jets! By a lot!
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 24, 2021 14:22:47 GMT -5
Isaiah Wynn… still the weak link.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 24, 2021 14:58:56 GMT -5
As I stated before and not that it matters that much because the Pats are not a contending team right now but. With A Ravens loss today the best record in the AFC is 5-2, KC will have the same record as NE and the majority of the AFC is within 1 game of .500 or worse. Lots of parity this year. If the Pats can get healthy and continue to improve they could be in the playoffs, BIG IFS!!
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 24, 2021 15:19:12 GMT -5
As I stated before and not that it matters that much because the Pats are not a contending team right now but. With A Ravens loss today the best record in the AFC is 5-2, KC will have the same record as NE and the majority of the AFC is within 1 game of .500 or worse. Lots of parity this year. If the Pats can get healthy and continue to improve they could be in the playoffs, BIG IFS!! Imagine if they beat Miami and were 4-3… haunting loss |
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