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9/13-9/15 Red Sox @ Mariners Series Thread
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Post by taiwansox on Sept 15, 2021 20:58:40 GMT -5
A two-run jack for the O's! Our win, an MFY loss and the burning of one of their games against the O's would be a significant lift. Their bullpen is going to make it nerve-wracking!
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Post by soxfaninnj on Sept 15, 2021 21:00:12 GMT -5
The umpire in this game is worse than the one we had
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Post by patford on Sept 15, 2021 21:00:54 GMT -5
A two-run jack for the O's! Our win, an MFY loss and the burning of one of their games against the O's would be a significant lift. Their bullpen is going to make it nerve-wracking! Nothing in MLB is as significant as the Yankees 10th man. The home plate umpire.
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Post by soxinsf on Sept 15, 2021 21:02:09 GMT -5
Disagree - it dates to July 29th, i.e., 7 weeks as of tomorrow!
Two walks today! I've said it before, but getting his BB and K rates into shape is the necessary and sufficient condition for him to be a successful major leaguer. (jimed, I think you know there's more to the story than Dalbec just being a "league average" hitter; he has a 108 wRC+, and even before today it was 114 since April 11th, 127 since June 1st, 157 in the second half. Now 117 for his career. And since his 400th career PA he has an OPS of 1.200. It's crazy to want to trade Devers away, but let's give Bobby his due.)
A lot of BABIP luck came home for the team today!
Great bullpenage today!
Great schedule going forward!
Great... guidas?
Yes, I was exaggerating a little to emphasize that we shouldn't just dump 4-5 WAR players because of errors. Exaggerating a little? The point you were making and we all understood was that you were dumping on Dalbec. Liking Dalbec and being positive about him is not mutually exclusive with liking Devers. But there will come time when the Sox need to make moves with both of them. I hope they both continue to hit and that the Sox find a way to keep both of them. There will be a lot of water under the bridge before then including decisions about free agents, the development of Casas, Renfroe’s potential reversion to the mean, Bogie’s aging curve, Bobby’s possible reversion, Devers defense. You know these things. Everyone embellishes their opinions once in a while. Few lose their ways.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Sept 15, 2021 21:05:33 GMT -5
Like why was the infield in?
Add: if the infield at normal depth that’s an easy out wow Baltimore just booted a double play ball
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 15, 2021 21:06:13 GMT -5
Forget it. A two-run bloop single by puke-face Gardner puts them ahead. I never should have gotten my hopes up.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 15, 2021 21:09:03 GMT -5
The Orioles are the Orioles so of course they blew the lead and are now 3 outs away from helping their no 1 draft pick bid.
I'd say the Yankees, thanks to their cupcake stretch are now past thei tumble that followed their winning streak. No reason why they wont win most of their next week's worth of games.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 15, 2021 21:10:46 GMT -5
Forget it. A two-run bloop single by puke-face Gardner puts them ahead. I never should have gotten my hopes up. They tripped up the Yankees twice last weekend. The law of averages said that's not happening again. Just hope they don't trip the Sox. The Six need to take full advantage of their situation.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Sept 15, 2021 21:15:00 GMT -5
Forget it. A two-run bloop single by puke-face Gardner puts them ahead. I never should have gotten my hopes up. They tripped up the Yankees twice last weekend. The law of averages said that's not happening again. Just hope they don't trip the Sox. The Six need to take full advantage of their situation. Your general point stands, so not trying to pick on you specifically, but it feels like there have been a lot of references to this “law of averages” recently, which is not a real thing.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 15, 2021 21:19:48 GMT -5
The Yankees are 5-12 in their last 17 games. The Blue Jays had a 4-10 stretch in late August. I don't think those teams are holding the magic amulet or something... As constituted, they're both (along with the Red Sox) roughly .600 caliber teams. We only need to finish ahead of one of them. Plus they have a series against each other, and one of them will lose at least two of those games, so that's a good head start for us. What are you talking about? The Jays were 4-10 at some point? So what? They're playing great now finally and they are in truth a much more talented team than Boston and New York. Plus they have the Twinkies for 7 games and the Orioles for 3 games. So what are you expecting for them for those 10 games? 5-5? C'mon. They have 3 games left at TB and 3 at home vs NY. That's it for tough games. I'd think they'd probably split those games. The Yankees have Baltimore and home games against Cleveland and Texas, a 10 game stretch including that makeup against Minnesota. Again, what are you expecting during that stretch? 3-7? Again, c'mon. They have 3 tough road games against Toronto which will be tough for them, and the series against the Sox will be tough, but their last 3 games are against a TB team with nothing to play for. I think they should win at least 7 of the 10 games. The Yankees, despite their flaws, will win most of their games, but what will make or break them is the 6 games against Toronto and Boston. The Sox won a crucial game today and have 9 games against cellar dwellers. The Sox have a big test against the Yankees, but beyond that should win more than 60% of their games if they don't underachieve. So you have 3 teams that should do a lot of winning over the next 2 weeks, so yeah, I expect to hear that each team won and needs to keep up quite often the next few weeks. I used some pretty plain language in my comment: they're both .600ish teams. So why are you throwing 3-7 and 5-5 out there? .600 is obviously 6-4.
The whole point of my comment is that streaks are not predictive - the Yankees won 14 in a row and then immediatly went 2-10. The Blue Jays went 4-10 and then immediately went 14-3 or whatever.
You want to talk strength of schdule? The Red Sox have a BIG advantage in that department: .467 vs. 500 for the other two.
I didn't even particularly disagree with you about the 91/92 win estimations for what it would take to get in. I just didn't agree with your point that "the Yankees and Jays keep winning," or that that was predictive even if true.
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Post by taiwansox on Sept 15, 2021 21:20:51 GMT -5
This ump just gave the Yankees another strike…
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 15, 2021 21:39:34 GMT -5
I'll take 3-3 on this road trip. 14 games to go, 8 wins might be enough (especially if 3 of those 8 are against the MFY) since it's now looking like a 3 team race, but let's see if we can get 9 or 10. I would break it into two tasks - the 3 games against the Yankees and the 11 games against the rest. Ideally we get 8 wins in those games (5-1 against Baltimore, 3-2 Wash/Mets) and then hope we can take the series against NY. It's definitely possible. Let's hope the bats heat up a bit. Toronto and NY keep winning too. I think 93 wins gets HFA, 92 wins is the magic number to make the playoffs and less than 91 leaves no chance. I think 91 wins is iffy.
They need an average of 2-1 in each series and a split against the Mets. Beating the Yankees twice would be especially crucial. I think we still have a good shot at 91-71. Not a lock, but more than iffy in my opinion. The Sox have the 3-way tiebreaker, so if they end up 91-71 then Toronto and NYY both need to go 10-6 to knock us out. If one goes 9-7 and the other goes 10+ then we'll have a play-in game. Obviously those teams can perform at 10+ win level to close the year, but I don't think it's a lock. They're guaranteed 3 losses by playing each other, a couple more if we play the NYY strong, and they play the Rays 6 times. 8-6... if we can't do that we don't deserve to be in the playoffs.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 15, 2021 21:44:28 GMT -5
Shout out to the bullpen
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 15, 2021 21:47:53 GMT -5
Yes, I was exaggerating a little to emphasize that we shouldn't just dump 4-5 WAR players because of errors. Exaggerating a little? The point you were making and we all understood was that you were dumping on Dalbec. Liking Dalbec and being positive about him is not mutually exclusive with liking Devers. But there will come time when the Sox need to make moves with both of them. I hope they both continue to hit and that the Sox find a way to keep both of them. There will be a lot of water under the bridge before then including decisions about free agents, the development of Casas, Renfroe’s potential reversion to the mean, Bogie’s aging curve, Bobby’s possible reversion, Devers defense. You know these things. Everyone embellishes their opinions once in a while. Few lose their ways. I've been way more supportive of Dalbec than most. The same logic that suggests we trade Devers in favor of Dalbec now was blaming Bloom for not replacing Dalbec at the trade deadline. I do not overreact to cold or hot streaks, especially with young players. When Dalbec had about a 60 wRC+, I was still super impressed with his hot streaks and was stressing patience. And by the way, Devers is still about a year and a half younger than Dalbec, for those who are under the impression that Devers is done improving and Dalbec isn't.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 15, 2021 21:52:57 GMT -5
What are you talking about? The Jays were 4-10 at some point? So what? They're playing great now finally and they are in truth a much more talented team than Boston and New York. Plus they have the Twinkies for 7 games and the Orioles for 3 games. So what are you expecting for them for those 10 games? 5-5? C'mon. They have 3 games left at TB and 3 at home vs NY. That's it for tough games. I'd think they'd probably split those games. The Yankees have Baltimore and home games against Cleveland and Texas, a 10 game stretch including that makeup against Minnesota. Again, what are you expecting during that stretch? 3-7? Again, c'mon. They have 3 tough road games against Toronto which will be tough for them, and the series against the Sox will be tough, but their last 3 games are against a TB team with nothing to play for. I think they should win at least 7 of the 10 games. The Yankees, despite their flaws, will win most of their games, but what will make or break them is the 6 games against Toronto and Boston. The Sox won a crucial game today and have 9 games against cellar dwellers. The Sox have a big test against the Yankees, but beyond that should win more than 60% of their games if they don't underachieve. So you have 3 teams that should do a lot of winning over the next 2 weeks, so yeah, I expect to hear that each team won and needs to keep up quite often the next few weeks. I used some pretty plain language in my comment: they're both .600ish teams. So why are you throwing 3-7 and 5-5 out there? .600 is obviously 6-4. The whole point of my comment is that streaks are not predictive - the Yankees won 14 in a row and then immediatly went 2-10. The Blue Jays went 4-10 and then immediately went 14-3 or whatever.
You want to talk strength of schdule? The Red Sox have a BIG advantage in that department: .467 vs. 500 for the other two.
I didn't even particularly disagree with you about the 91/92 win estimations for what it would take to get in. I just didn't agree with your point that "the Yankees and Jays keep winning," or that that was predictive even if true.
When I say keep winning I'm talking about the stretch of games from Monday on up. So for the Yankees I picked them to go 1-0 vs Minn, 2-1 against Balt, 2-1 against Cle, and 2-1 against Tex. That adds up to 7-3. Do any of those projections look silly? I mean they could as easily sweep a series as go 1-2, so I feel it's a reasonably conservative estimate. They're now 3-0 into this 10 game stretch so they are winning. I guess if we're disagreeing it's probably based on semantics at this point. With 16 games left or whatever I don't think the strength of schedule numbers you throw out are terribly significant. I mean what's the difference between a .500 vs .467? About half a projected win? And I'm sure TB skews that number but really, do you think Toronto gets the same TB that NY gets? No they don't. Toronto gets Tampa's best effort, and have won 2 of 3 anyways while the Yankees get the spring training of Tampa who will have clinched HFA throughout the playoffs by then, so it makes a small fractional difference in the strength of schedule argument even smaller.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 15, 2021 22:04:11 GMT -5
Toronto and NY keep winning too. I think 93 wins gets HFA, 92 wins is the magic number to make the playoffs and less than 91 leaves no chance. I think 91 wins is iffy.
They need an average of 2-1 in each series and a split against the Mets. Beating the Yankees twice would be especially crucial. I think we still have a good shot at 91-71. Not a lock, but more than iffy in my opinion. The Sox have the 3-way tiebreaker, so if they end up 91-71 then Toronto and NYY both need to go 10-6 to knock us out. If one goes 9-7 and the other goes 10+ then we'll have a play-in game. Obviously those teams can perform at 10+ win level to close the year, but I don't think it's a lock. They're guaranteed 3 losses by playing each other, a couple more if we play the NYY strong, and they play the Rays 6 times. 8-6... if we can't do that we don't deserve to be in the playoffs. At this point it's small enough it's a fun exercise we can all play, and it doesn't make anybody right or anybody wrong. I will pick the Sox to go 4-2 vs Bal, 2-1 vs Was, 1-1 vs NYM, and 1-2 vs NYY, so that comes out to 91-71. I will guess that Toronto wins 5 of 7 vs Minnesota, 1-2 at TB, 2-1 vs NYY and 2-1 vs Bal. That brings them to 92-70. I will guess that NYY beat Bal tomorrow. I thought the Yanks might have a chance to lose tonight but it didn't happen. I'll guess 2-1 vs Cle, 2-1 vs Tex, 2-1 vs Bos, 1-2 vs Tor, 2-1 vs TB b squad. That puts them at 92-70. Of course you can poke away at those projections. All it takes is Bos to go 2-1 against NYY and the Sox are 92-70 and the Yankees are 91-71. That's why I think 92 wins is the magic number. These are merely my opinions and I could be very wrong. What are yours?
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 15, 2021 22:09:35 GMT -5
I think we still have a good shot at 91-71. Not a lock, but more than iffy in my opinion. The Sox have the 3-way tiebreaker, so if they end up 91-71 then Toronto and NYY both need to go 10-6 to knock us out. If one goes 9-7 and the other goes 10+ then we'll have a play-in game. Obviously those teams can perform at 10+ win level to close the year, but I don't think it's a lock. They're guaranteed 3 losses by playing each other, a couple more if we play the NYY strong, and they play the Rays 6 times. 8-6... if we can't do that we don't deserve to be in the playoffs. At this point it's small enough it's a fun exercise we can all play, and it doesn't make anybody right or anybody wrong. I will pick the Sox to go 4-2 vs Bal, 2-1 vs Was, 1-1 vs NYM, and 1-2 vs NYY, so that comes out to 91-71. I will guess that Toronto wins 5 of 7 vs Minnesota, 1-2 at TB, 2-1 vs NYY and 2-1 vs Bal. That brings them to 92-70. I will guess that NYY beat Bal tomorrow. I thought the Yanks might have a chance to lose tonight but it didn't happen. I'll guess 2-1 vs Cle, 2-1 vs Tex, 2-1 vs Bos, 1-2 vs Tor, 2-1 vs TB b squad. That puts them at 92-70. Of course you can poke away at those projections. All it takes is Bos to go 2-1 against NYY and the Sox are 92-70 and the Yankees are 91-71. That's why I think 92 wins is the magic number. These are merely my opinions and I could be very wrong. What are yours? I think your right on following the odds. But as we all know that isnt how it works. It’s going to be a wild ride. Sox have the days off and easy 5 last games to finish up. I do think 92 is the magic number.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 15, 2021 22:31:27 GMT -5
I think we still have a good shot at 91-71. Not a lock, but more than iffy in my opinion. The Sox have the 3-way tiebreaker, so if they end up 91-71 then Toronto and NYY both need to go 10-6 to knock us out. If one goes 9-7 and the other goes 10+ then we'll have a play-in game. Obviously those teams can perform at 10+ win level to close the year, but I don't think it's a lock. They're guaranteed 3 losses by playing each other, a couple more if we play the NYY strong, and they play the Rays 6 times. 8-6... if we can't do that we don't deserve to be in the playoffs. At this point it's small enough it's a fun exercise we can all play, and it doesn't make anybody right or anybody wrong. I will pick the Sox to go 4-2 vs Bal, 2-1 vs Was, 1-1 vs NYM, and 1-2 vs NYY, so that comes out to 91-71. I will guess that Toronto wins 5 of 7 vs Minnesota, 1-2 at TB, 2-1 vs NYY and 2-1 vs Bal. That brings them to 92-70. I will guess that NYY beat Bal tomorrow. I thought the Yanks might have a chance to lose tonight but it didn't happen. I'll guess 2-1 vs Cle, 2-1 vs Tex, 2-1 vs Bos, 1-2 vs Tor, 2-1 vs TB b squad. That puts them at 92-70. Of course you can poke away at those projections. All it takes is Bos to go 2-1 against NYY and the Sox are 92-70 and the Yankees are 91-71. That's why I think 92 wins is the magic number. These are merely my opinions and I could be very wrong. What are yours? This is a pretty reasonable expectation, and may be even the most likely scenario for each team. 10-6 is essentially their run rate since August 1st. So I'm not saying it can't happen, there's just many scenarios where things could go off track. For one, we need both teams to hit these numbers, which is harder than just one team playing well. If we assume each team has a 75% chance of winning 10+ games, that still means both teams winning 10+ is ~56%. So I think if the Sox win 8 games there's slightly more than a 50% chance they'll make the playoffs. Probably less than 66%. What I will say, if the Sox only win 8 games and don't win the series against NYY, they're going to need a lot of help as that's the type of scenario where they'd be on the outside looking in with 91 wins. This is just what happens if we win 8, hopefully we make it a moot point and also win 10+.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 15, 2021 22:40:15 GMT -5
Dave O'Brien in the 9th inning game 7 vs. the Mets in 1986: There's no way that they needed to bring Stapleton in for defense in the 9th. Leave Buckner out there to get the WS victory on the field. Right before it happened. He won't stop trying to jinx them. Serious question: Do people who believe in a jinx also believe in fortune tellers. My wife believes in both as I believe in neither.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 16, 2021 7:26:46 GMT -5
Dave O'Brien in the 9th inning game 7 vs. the Mets in 1986: There's no way that they needed to bring Stapleton in for defense in the 9th. Leave Buckner out there to get the WS victory on the field. Right before it happened. He won't stop trying to jinx them. Serious question: Do people who believe in a jinx also believe in fortune tellers. My wife believes in both as I believe in neither. For the most part I firmly believe that nothing the announcer says makes any difference. My brother strongly disagrees. On the other hand, there is a lot of data supporting the theory that if I watch the last inning of a tight game, they are more likely to lose, and if I turn it off, I usually find out when I check later that they have won. I inherited this power from my dad.
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art
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Post by art on Sept 16, 2021 8:17:22 GMT -5
Dave O'Brien in the 9th inning game 7 vs. the Mets in 1986: There's no way that they needed to bring Stapleton in for defense in the 9th. Leave Buckner out there to get the WS victory on the field. Right before it happened. He won't stop trying to jinx them. BTW, the game you're referring to was game 6 of the 1986 WS. And Buckner received way more than his share of the blame. That play was just the apex of a giant blaze that had been set by the bullpen.
Also, you must be confusing O'Brien with someone else. In 1986 he had just graduated from college and had not begun his career as a baseball play-by-play broadcaster.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 16, 2021 9:25:01 GMT -5
Dave O'Brien in the 9th inning game 7 vs. the Mets in 1986: There's no way that they needed to bring Stapleton in for defense in the 9th. Leave Buckner out there to get the WS victory on the field. Right before it happened. He won't stop trying to jinx them. BTW, the game you're referring to was game 6 of the 1986 WS. And Buckner received way more than his share of the blame. That play was just the apex of a giant blaze that had been set by the bullpen.
Also, you must be confusing O'Brien with someone else. In 1986 he had just graduated from college and had not begun his career as a baseball play-by-play broadcaster.
Yes, I know it was game 6 and am full aware of the game already being blown by the time the Buckner error happened. It was just a stupid joke about how O'Brien loves to tempt the baseball gods at every opportunity, talking about no-hitters, talking about how a pitcher hasn't given up a home run in a really long time or in the case of yesterday's game, talking about how great the flight home was going to be after a win before the game was over. It doesn't matter if it's real or not. He is annoying the hell out of the fans who don't want to hear that. He is aggravating and he does it on purpose.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 16, 2021 9:25:58 GMT -5
Dave O'Brien in the 9th inning game 7 vs. the Mets in 1986: There's no way that they needed to bring Stapleton in for defense in the 9th. Leave Buckner out there to get the WS victory on the field. Right before it happened. He won't stop trying to jinx them. Serious question: Do people who believe in a jinx also believe in fortune tellers. My wife believes in both as I believe in neither. It doesn't matter because it's clear that he's trying to annoy the people who do believe in it. That is what drives me nuts. Why does he act like such a dick?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 16, 2021 9:41:44 GMT -5
BTW, the game you're referring to was game 6 of the 1986 WS. And Buckner received way more than his share of the blame. That play was just the apex of a giant blaze that had been set by the bullpen. Also, you must be confusing O'Brien with someone else. In 1986 he had just graduated from college and had not begun his career as a baseball play-by-play broadcaster.
Yes, I know it was game 6 and am full aware of the game already being blown by the time the Buckner error happened. It was just a stupid joke about how O'Brien loves to tempt the baseball gods at every opportunity, talking about no-hitters, talking about how a pitcher hasn't given up a home run in a really long time or in the case of yesterday's game, talking about how great the flight home was going to be after a win before the game was over. It doesn't matter if it's real or not. He is annoying the hell out of the fans who don't want to hear that. He is aggravating and he does it on purpose. The NESN graphics dept put up a graphic about Ottavino not having surrendered a HR all season exactly 1 pitch before Ottavino would surrender his 1st HR of the season, a game tying HR by Franmil Reyes with 2 outs in the 9th that tied the game, before Verdugo got the game winning hit in the bottom of the 9th. For the record, I don't believe in fortune tellers or any of that stuff. If they were really fortune tellers, they'd see the next night's winning lottery ticket numbers, put their money down on it, strike it rich, and retire. They don't, so it's BS. That said, I do believe in tempting fate and in superstitions, which work for about five minutes until they don't and it's onto the next new superstition. Intellectually, superstitions are silly. I mean talking about a potential no-hitter and then watching it disintegrate can be annoying but intellectually that's not why a no-hitter suddenly gets broken up. The thing is I think a lot of people don't believe in the fortune I can see the future type of thing, but they believe in superstitions. I mean we see guys trying to change their luck by wearing rally caps or whatever. The best example of that was a game in 1990 against Seattle that featured the dugouts trying to top each other with their superstitions. It turned into Randy Johnson looking like a sheik and ended with Roger Clemens wearing coke cups from his ears, which must have worked because Dwight Evans hit the go-ahead and winning HR late into extra innings. I truly believe that Nomar never moved from his seat in the Jeter crashes into the seats game in 2004 because of superstition. I mean the guy would tap his feet a certain amount of times and fidget with his batting gloves, etc. So I really don't think he was pouting, but more was frozen to his spot by superstition. Nobody was more superstitious than chicken eating, draw a Chai sign in the batters box, sprint out at 7:17 (one day somebody moved the clock from 7:16 o 7:18 just to mess with him) than Wade Boggs. So if you believe chicken was the reason Boggs was a .338 hitter lifetime with the Sox, sure, why not? haha. Me personally? I am very superstitious. I hate presuming Red Sox victories for the same reason I hate hearing the words,"Red Sox pitcher so and so has a no-hitter going in the 8th inning". It's a big jinx. Overconfidence turns into "how the hell did that happen?". Presuming loss can work the other way as it's always better to win and look stupid for shooting your mouth off than to lose and look stupid for shooting your mouth off.
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Post by jbsox on Sept 16, 2021 9:59:16 GMT -5
Just because I’m from Billerica, MA I’m just pointing out I thought it was very cool that twice within the last week ((O’Brien and Burks a few games ago), and last night with Lenny and O’Brien they talked briefly about Tommy Glavine. He always wanted to pitch for the Sox at least once in his career.
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