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10/5 - AL Wild Card Game: Red Sox vs. Yankees
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Post by fenwaydouble on Oct 5, 2021 12:45:45 GMT -5
Can’t say I blame them. They just swept us, they have Cole, and we have no JD. They also killed Eovaldi last time. I think the Yankees would be the easy pick here in a best of 7. But in 1 game?? Anything can happen. Hopefully the Sox have an edge being at home. Hopefully Eovaldi is sharp and at his postseason best. Hopefully they can get to Cole early and put up 2-3 runs. After that, I just hope the bullpen can hold a lead late in the game. I don’t know who I would trust out there. At least the main guys they have been using were able to get a couple days of rest. That doesn’t mean I want to see Robles pitching to Judge and/or Stanton with runners on base in a tight game, though. As bad as it's felt like we've played recently, it's not like the Yankees have dramatically outplayed the Sox (recent sweep aside). Both teams have the same record since August 17, which is when New York caught Boston in the standings - that's despite the massive Covid outbreak that should really have buried the Red Sox in September. Of course New York is a dangerous team and they could easily win tonight, but they aren't any more talented than Boston. We don't need to get lucky to beat them.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 5, 2021 13:00:10 GMT -5
Eovaldi, then as needed, Whitlock, Brasier, Pivetta, dare I say Robles (righties), ERod and Taylor (lefties) - my confidence mix. If Nate is sharp, we should not need all of that. Ottavino, Richards, Barnes, Davis scare me. For this particular game, it is the best possible roster for sure, in my view - with JD out and Iglesias ineligible. Don't forget Houck too. He could potentially be a big piece today. I didn't have him in my most trusted list because he is still a bit of a wild card - we've seen him great often, but I worry the big moment may have him overthrowing and with less command. But - yes - I am glad to have him...we shall see!
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 5, 2021 13:00:30 GMT -5
It's just 12 PA. 94 on the season isn't arbitrary, there's a huge split in the data. Statcast only does >= and <= selections, and no fractional velos, so it's hard to do buckets of each mph. But here's Dalbec on the season: .253 / .188 94+ (51)
.306 / .190 95+ (33) .356 / .188 96+ (19) .404 / .063 97+ (11) I can do math to get the bucket numbers, but it looks like there's little change until you get to 97+
Velo No wxOBA wOBA 91 8 .521 .864 92 10 .529 .458 93 17 .233 .268 94 18 .156 .184 95 14 .238 .193 96 8 .290 .360 97+ 11 .404 .063 He annihilates salad. 93 is where he actually starts to struggle, but 94 gives him the most trouble. Above that, the harder they throw, the better he hits the ball. I doubt I'll look into the karma collapse at 97+, but who knows?
Whats wrong with the Shaw idea? I just can’t have faith Bobby will hit Cole and Shaw would likely field better.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 5, 2021 13:06:29 GMT -5
These one-game playoffs almost always come down to pitching. Here’s hoping the Sox overcome Cole on five days rest and a stocked pen!
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 5, 2021 13:07:01 GMT -5
It's just 12 PA. 94 on the season isn't arbitrary, there's a huge split in the data. Statcast only does >= and <= selections, and no fractional velos, so it's hard to do buckets of each mph. But here's Dalbec on the season: .253 / .188 94+ (51)
.306 / .190 95+ (33) .356 / .188 96+ (19) .404 / .063 97+ (11) I can do math to get the bucket numbers, but it looks like there's little change until you get to 97+
Velo No wxOBA wOBA 91 8 .521 .864 92 10 .529 .458 93 17 .233 .268 94 18 .156 .184 95 14 .238 .193 96 8 .290 .360 97+ 11 .404 .063 He annihilates salad. 93 is where he actually starts to struggle, but 94 gives him the most trouble. Above that, the harder they throw, the better he hits the ball. I doubt I'll look into the karma collapse at 97+, but who knows?
Is this on swings or batted balls?
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2021 13:08:25 GMT -5
Velo No wxOBA wOBA 91 8 .521 .864 92 10 .529 .458 93 17 .233 .268 94 18 .156 .184 95 14 .238 .193 96 8 .290 .360 97+ 11 .404 .063 He annihilates salad. 93 is where he actually starts to struggle, but 94 gives him the most trouble. Above that, the harder they throw, the better he hits the ball. I doubt I'll look into the karma collapse at 97+, but who knows?
Whats wrong with the Shaw idea? I just can’t have faith Bobby will hit Cole and Shaw would likely field better. I've changed my mind and now think that perhaps Dalbec is the best option to start, not because he has a better chance against Cole because I don't think he does. I think Shaw is more likely to be patient with Cole and draw a walk. But Shaw is more valuable off the bench. At some point they'll probably hit for their catcher or even Arroyo. The only other lefty off the bench is Duran who's likely just pinch-running, so the Sox will face either Cole or one of their tougher righty relievers and need Shaw in a particular spot. As it is, if Chapman is pitching, Dalbec will still be in the lineup.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 5, 2021 13:10:03 GMT -5
I'm really not asking for much for tonight. 1) A carbon copy of 2004 ALCS game 7 2) A-Rod gets loudly fired on air during the 4th inning. 3) Chapman gets his eyes beat shut by girls in the dugout after the game. It is October, and 2004 taught me that anything is possible in October... This. And Aaron Boone has to be escorted out of the park for threatening an umpire. Before the game.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 5, 2021 13:10:24 GMT -5
The offense was never in question. The only issue was how the pitching would play out. The starters were good enough to get them a nice lead in the first half. The last part of the schedule was considerably more difficult and the record reflected that. The covid effect on their bullpen didn't help them at all either, but they held on to make it to a wildcard spot. Some of the early posts were very negative, seemingly ignoring that offense. Again, they were going to score. They'll only go as far as their pitching takes them postseason. They seem to have enough warm bodies at this point to at least make it competitive. There are some very tough teams in front of them should they make it past New York. But they're not dead yet and there were a few who had them buried before it started. Simply "warm bodies" don't get you much of anywhere in the playoffs, where most teams are playing with more stacked pitching. I realize ERA isn't the preferred parameter for gauging pitching effectiveness, but it's interesting that the 5 playoff teams at this point consist of the top 4 AL teams in ERA ...... and then there's the Sox. I think today's game is simple to analyze. If Eovaldi gives the Sox at least 6+ effective innings, they have a shot at winning. If he doesn't, they don't, because the pen weakness WILL show up, probably to a catastrophic degree, at some point during the bullpen parade. The Sox struggle too hard to get outs out of the bullpen.If Eovaldi gives the Sox 5 good innings with a reasonable pitch count and they don't bring him back out for the 6th, I WILL be steamed. But have you seen what the bullpen is for this game? Houck and Whitlock are both out there, which has rarely been the case this season. Pivetta and Rodriguez are also out there, which has never been the case this season (until Sunday).
I would very firmly predict that we don't see Eovaldi face more than 18 or 20 guys; I do not think Judge or Stanton will be allowed to get a third crack at him. So then it's Houck for 2 IP, Whitlock for 2 IP, and maybe an inning from Rodriguez or Pivetta or Brasier or Taylor. No reason to see Barnes or Ottavino in this game, and Sawamura and Hernandez aren't even on the roster. (Which I approve of; the Yankees are not the team to face with guys who allow a ton of walks.)
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Post by incandenza on Oct 5, 2021 13:11:55 GMT -5
Velo No wxOBA wOBA 91 8 .521 .864 92 10 .529 .458 93 17 .233 .268 94 18 .156 .184 95 14 .238 .193 96 8 .290 .360 97+ 11 .404 .063 He annihilates salad. 93 is where he actually starts to struggle, but 94 gives him the most trouble. Above that, the harder they throw, the better he hits the ball. I doubt I'll look into the karma collapse at 97+, but who knows?
Whats wrong with the Shaw idea? I just can’t have faith Bobby will hit Cole and Shaw would likely field better. Since they acquired him, Shaw has looked like a clearly worse fielder than Dalbec to me (largely because of Dalbec's improvement, but also because Shaw just doesn't look very good).
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 5, 2021 13:12:24 GMT -5
Houck did not do well versus the Yanks last time out.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 5, 2021 13:17:07 GMT -5
MY keys to this game - Kiké setting the table a bit and staying away from lunging and overswinging. Showing some patience. Xander finding his swing (or confidence) and squaring up some balls. Overall less reliance on fly balls/solo home runs and more on building some rallies, using the whole field. Eovaldi with 5-6 sharp innings, with good command of all of his pitches.
If we avoid big line up black holes, build some rallies, get to Whitlock and Brasier and ERod/Pivetta in good shape....we will keep playing.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2021 13:21:48 GMT -5
Houck did not do well versus the Yanks last time out. Yeah, he needs to throw strikes. Maybe he made some adjustment to pitch better against the Nats other than the fact the Nats simply stunk? I mean he was perfect. They'd need him and Whitlock to be at their absolute best. Of course the Yankees also have the option of using starters, too, such as Severino, German, and perhaps Kluber (is he on the roster) if need be as well, although I don't think they'd use them unless Cole struggled early or Chapman's control is way off and they need to pull him.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 5, 2021 13:22:26 GMT -5
Velo No wxOBA wOBA 91 8 .521 .864 92 10 .529 .458 93 17 .233 .268 94 18 .156 .184 95 14 .238 .193 96 8 .290 .360 97+ 11 .404 .063 He annihilates salad. 93 is where he actually starts to struggle, but 94 gives him the most trouble. Above that, the harder they throw, the better he hits the ball. I doubt I'll look into the karma collapse at 97+, but who knows?
Is this on swings or batted balls? All PA that end with a 4-seamer. There are 6 more at 90 and below, for 92 total, which is 35% of his PA vs. RHP. I looked just at 4-seamers because that's what Cole throws. The 40 sinkers bring the total FB up to exactly 50%.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2021 13:23:24 GMT -5
MY keys to this game - Kiké setting the table a bit and staying away from lunging and overswinging. Showing some patience. Xander finding his swing (or confidence) and squaring up some balls. Overall less reliance on fly balls/solo home runs and more on building some rallies, using the whole field. Eovaldi with 5-6 sharp innings, with good command of all of his pitches. If we avoid big line up black holes, build some rallies, get to Whitlock and Brasier and ERod/Pivetta in good shape....we will keep playing. I think whoever bats 5th looms large, probably Renfroe because I think they'll probably pitch around Devers in big situations or see if he gets anxious and chases out of the strike zone. And yes, X has to hit and drive in runs. They can't squander any real opportunities they get.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 5, 2021 13:29:38 GMT -5
Houck did not do well versus the Yanks last time out. Yeah, he needs to throw strikes. Maybe he made some adjustment to pitch better against the Nats other than the fact the Nats simply stunk? I mean he was perfect. They'd need him and Whitlock to be at their absolute best. Of course the Yankees also have the option of using starters, too, such as Severino, German, and perhaps Kluber (is he on the roster) if need be as well, although I don't think they'd use them unless Cole struggled early or Chapman's control is way off and they need to pull him.The Yankees have a much more reliable regular bullpen, though, so I don't see a scenario where they're better off using starters. The ability to do so helps the Red Sox close up a weakness on the roster, but since that same area is a strength for the Yankees they don't gain a further advantage.
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 5, 2021 13:38:20 GMT -5
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2021 13:42:38 GMT -5
Yeah, he needs to throw strikes. Maybe he made some adjustment to pitch better against the Nats other than the fact the Nats simply stunk? I mean he was perfect. They'd need him and Whitlock to be at their absolute best. Of course the Yankees also have the option of using starters, too, such as Severino, German, and perhaps Kluber (is he on the roster) if need be as well, although I don't think they'd use them unless Cole struggled early or Chapman's control is way off and they need to pull him.The Yankees have a much more reliable regular bullpen, though, so I don't see a scenario where they're better off using starters. The ability to do so helps the Red Sox close up a weakness on the roster, but since that same area is a strength for the Yankees they don't gain a further advantage. What makes you think the Yankees wouldn't turn to a starter in relief if Cole got knocked out early or if they've run through their relievers and they see Chapman faltering in the 9th or if the game goes extra innings? The Sox are using their starters as 8th/9th or beyond. Houck probably gets the first call out of the pen.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 5, 2021 13:44:15 GMT -5
Wait a minute. In this analogy the Yankees are...? And the Red Sox are wearing red shirts...? Not sure I like where this is headed.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 5, 2021 13:44:21 GMT -5
Can someone explain going with Dalbec over Shaw if Shaw plays better D and hits righty fastballs better?
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2021 13:47:40 GMT -5
Can someone explain going with Dalbec over Shaw if Shaw plays better D and hits righty fastballs better? Simple. They want Shaw available late in the game to face one of their righty relievers when they PH for one of their catchers. If not Shaw as the lefty off the bench, then who? Their only other lefty is their pinch runner Duran.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 5, 2021 13:49:17 GMT -5
MY keys to this game - Kiké setting the table a bit and staying away from lunging and overswinging. Showing some patience.Xander finding his swing (or confidence) and squaring up some balls. Overall less reliance on fly balls/solo home runs and more on building some rallies, using the whole field. Eovaldi with 5-6 sharp innings, with good command of all of his pitches. If we avoid big line up black holes, build some rallies, get to Whitlock and Brasier and ERod/Pivetta in good shape....we will keep playing. Kiké in his amazing run from June 27 to COVID had a .416 xwOBA and .411 wOBA.
He had .278 / .141 in his first 9 games back from COVID.
Since 9/18, he's .372 / .386 in 62 PA. Which is pretty much exactly as he was hitting when he got sick.
A lot of national sportswriters who should know better are citing his season numbers and calling them essentially solid. But he was .284 / .290 when they moved him back to leadoff and he's been .394 / .374 since, even with the 9 post-COVID games where he did nothing. He had those and missed 11 games and he's still 10th in fWAR from that point onward. And 35th in wRC+, in an exact tie with Devers as the best hitter on the team.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 5, 2021 13:50:31 GMT -5
Can someone explain going with Dalbec over Shaw if Shaw plays better D and hits righty fastballs better? Simple. They want Shaw available late in the game to face one of their righty relievers when they PH for one of their catchers. If not Shaw as the lefty off the bench, then who? Their only other lefty is their pinch runner Duran. Makes sense. Thanks.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 5, 2021 13:50:36 GMT -5
The Yankees have a much more reliable regular bullpen, though, so I don't see a scenario where they're better off using starters. The ability to do so helps the Red Sox close up a weakness on the roster, but since that same area is a strength for the Yankees they don't gain a further advantage. What makes you think the Yankees wouldn't turn to a starter in relief if Cole got knocked out early or if they've run through their relievers and they see Chapman faltering in the 9th or if the game goes extra innings? The Sox are using their starters as 8th/9th or beyond. Houck probably gets the first call out of the pen. Didn't I explain it? It's because they have like 8 solid relievers, so no need to turn to their starters, who shouldn't be expected to be as effective as their actual relievers in relief roles.
It's true that if we go deep into extra innings they'd have those guys to draw on.
It's also true that Boone is not a very smart manager so maybe he'll make some dumb choices.
In any event, I think the basic point is pretty clear: the Red Sox have some much more potent set of weapons in the bullpen than they have had for at least the second half of this season.
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 5, 2021 13:52:23 GMT -5
Wait a minute. In this analogy the Yankees are...? And the Red Sox are wearing red shirts...? Not sure I like where this is headed. Just go with it
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Post by soxinjersey on Oct 5, 2021 13:56:30 GMT -5
What makes you think the Yankees wouldn't turn to a starter in relief if Cole got knocked out early or if they've run through their relievers and they see Chapman faltering in the 9th or if the game goes extra innings? The Sox are using their starters as 8th/9th or beyond. Houck probably gets the first call out of the pen. Didn't I explain it? It's because they have like 8 solid relievers, so no need to turn to their starters, who shouldn't be expected to be as effective as their actual relievers in relief roles.
It's true that if we go deep into extra innings they'd have those guys to draw on.
It's also true that Boone is not a very smart manager so maybe he'll make some dumb choices.
In any event, I think the basic point is pretty clear: the Red Sox have some much more potent set of weapons in the bullpen than they have had for at least the second half of this season.
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