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10/5 - AL Wild Card Game: Red Sox vs. Yankees
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Post by manfred on Oct 5, 2021 10:22:47 GMT -5
I disagree with the folks who want Shaw over Dalbec. I see the point, in theory, and I also can see how both could be human windmills… but Shaw seems so vulnerable to high velocity. I think Dalbec actually has the better chance against Cole.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 5, 2021 10:36:55 GMT -5
I'm a bit surprised at no Sale. He's had two full days of rest and his last outing (sadly) was short. They might need him to get Rizzo or Gallo.
Rizzo actually has an extreme reverse split this year (.733 OPS vs. RH, .901 vs. LH). But his career split is more conventional (.874 vs. RH, .788 vs. LH) and probably more predictive.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 5, 2021 10:37:08 GMT -5
Game day. My simple wishes - that our hitters are loose and focused and DON'T CHASE - that Eovaldi is typical Nate-sharp - and that Cora is ready to manage the crap out of the game and pull all of the needed strings!
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 5, 2021 10:41:40 GMT -5
Eovaldi, then as needed, Whitlock, Brasier, Pivetta, dare I say Robles (righties), ERod and Taylor (lefties) - my confidence mix. If Nate is sharp, we should not need all of that. Ottavino, Richards, Barnes, Davis scare me.
For this particular game, it is the best possible roster for sure, in my view - with JD out and Iglesias ineligible.
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Post by curtisw on Oct 5, 2021 10:50:39 GMT -5
Pretty shocked to see Taylor. Sort of bizarre I thought he was done for the year with back issues? If he’s ready to go that is a pleasant surprise to slightly offset no JD.
I don’t remember many people thinking this team had the postseason in them. I think some of us hardcore fans thought they might have an outside shot but I don’t know if many expected it. The reason I’ve visited this site religiously since high school is because this is the most informed place to learn about Red Sox baseball so I’m not shocked some of the older more experienced fans than myself thought this was a wildcard team. But I don’t think that was a general expectation outside or inside the fan base.
As a fan and something of a student of the game this year is definitely eye opening for me. I thought they had an outside shot at the postseason but I’m definitely gonna own up to not expecting this. I did not expect the pitching to hold up as well as it did, which I guess it barely did in some ways but it did do the job. I Iove baseball, always a learning experience lol.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 5, 2021 10:55:55 GMT -5
Wow, JD is not on the roster for tonight. So looks like it'll be Schwarber DH, Bobby 1B. Not the end of the world. JDM and Schwarber are mostly redundant and neither can play a lick of defense. This tightens things up defensively.
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Post by stevedillard on Oct 5, 2021 10:58:33 GMT -5
In terms of matchups, have we figured out the best reliever option to go 1-2 to Gardner before walking him?
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Post by benzinger on Oct 5, 2021 10:59:35 GMT -5
Why Davis over Sawamura? Not that Sawamura is great, but Davis basically hasn’t had a full clean inning since he joined us Agree with this. Sawamura has been OK lately. Certainly better than some of the other options. Too many walks, I guess. Not reliable enough.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 5, 2021 11:00:48 GMT -5
Why Davis over Sawamura? Not that Sawamura is great, but Davis basically hasn’t had a full clean inning since he joined us I'm guessing there's a spot where Gardner leads off and Rizzo bats 3rd. Odor will be in there somewhere too, but I'm guessing there's a spot 2 out of the 3 batters are lefty although the idea of Davis facing Judge is kind of terrifying. Maybe if Odor bats 8th and Gardner leads off, that would work better...have him face 8-9-1 if Odor bats 8th. I’m not sure if it will hold, but Torres has been mostly batting leadoff in LeMahiue’s absence. Gardner tends to bat 8th or 9th.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 5, 2021 11:06:59 GMT -5
I disagree with the folks who want Shaw over Dalbec. I see the point, in theory, and I also can see how both could be human windmills… but Shaw seems so vulnerable to high velocity. I think Dalbec actually has the better chance against Cole. Dalbec before his breakout versus RHP 4-seam FB 94+:
.249 / .137 xwOBA / wOBA
Since his breakout, August 7
.307 / .371
And a lot of his karma post-breakout is for real.
Meanwhile, Cole on the season (versus all hitters):
.293 / .283 4-seamer .238 / .231 slider .225 / .257 change
Cole of late:
.356 / .390 last 5 starts
.369 / .415 last 3 starts
Last 5 starts pitches:
.401 / .412 4-seamer (228) .386 / .382 slider (118) .278 / .378 change (63)
.247 / .391 curve (60)
Versus RHB, last 5 starts:
.428 / .490 FB (126) .355 / .355 SL (103) .341 / .370 CU (33)
.279 / .439 CH (24)
Renfroe hits 5th instead of JDM, Bobby D hits 7th. Easy.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 5, 2021 11:12:15 GMT -5
I disagree with the folks who want Shaw over Dalbec. I see the point, in theory, and I also can see how both could be human windmills… but Shaw seems so vulnerable to high velocity. I think Dalbec actually has the better chance against Cole. Dalbec before his breakout versus RHP 4-seam FB 94+:
.249 / .137 xwOBA / wOBA
Since his breakout, August 7
.307 / .371
And a lot of his karma post-breakout is for real.
Meanwhile, Cole on the season (versus all hitters):
.293 / .283 4-seamer .238 / .231 slider .225 / .257 change
Cole of late:
.356 / .390 last 5 starts
.369 / .415 last 3 starts
Last 5 starts pitches:
.401 / .412 4-seamer (228) .386 / .382 slider (118) .278 / .378 change (63)
.247 / .391 curve (60)
Versus RHB, last 5 starts:
.428 / .490 FB (126) .355 / .355 SL (103) .341 / .370 CU (33)
.279 / .439 CH (24)
Renfroe hits 5th instead of JDM, Bobby D hits 7th. Easy.
How many ABs vs those guys since Aug. 7, though? Also, 94 seems like a bit of an arbitrary cutoff. Cole is a lot quicker than that when he's right. FG has his four-seamer at 97.8!
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 5, 2021 11:18:49 GMT -5
8 of the 10 "pundits" at mlb.com pick the Yankees.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 5, 2021 11:20:44 GMT -5
8 of the 10 "pundits" at mlb.com pick the Yankees. Can’t say I blame them. They just swept us, they have Cole, and we have no JD. They also killed Eovaldi last time.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2021 11:32:36 GMT -5
8 of the 10 "pundits" at mlb.com pick the Yankees. Can’t say I blame them. They just swept us, they have Cole, and we have no JD. They also killed Eovaldi last time. Yup, I saw on ESPN that 27 of the pundits picked the Yankees and the other 9 picked the Sox. I would think a non-Sox and non-Yankees fan would pick the Yankees based off their past two months, being about 10 games better than the Sox since their roster got more intact over the past couple of months plus the way they've handled the Sox since that time. Honestly, at the end of the day it doesn't matter what anything thinks or who says what, what's going to happen is going to happen. It's not like we have any control of what's going to happen. All you can do is hope for the best.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 5, 2021 11:37:27 GMT -5
MLB Network is reporting Vázquez is starting at second?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2021 11:39:33 GMT -5
MLB Network is reporting Vázquez is starting at second? Whatttttt?
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 5, 2021 11:48:40 GMT -5
Dalbec before his breakout versus RHP 4-seam FB 94+:
.249 / .137 xwOBA / wOBA
Since his breakout, August 7
.307 / .371
And a lot of his karma post-breakout is for real.
Meanwhile, Cole on the season (versus all hitters):
.293 / .283 4-seamer .238 / .231 slider .225 / .257 change
Cole of late:
.356 / .390 last 5 starts
.369 / .415 last 3 starts
Last 5 starts pitches:
.401 / .412 4-seamer (228) .386 / .382 slider (118) .278 / .378 change (63)
.247 / .391 curve (60)
Versus RHB, last 5 starts:
.428 / .490 FB (126) .355 / .355 SL (103) .341 / .370 CU (33)
.279 / .439 CH (24)
Renfroe hits 5th instead of JDM, Bobby D hits 7th. Easy.
How many ABs vs those guys since Aug. 7, though? Also, 94 seems like a bit of an arbitrary cutoff. Cole is a lot quicker than that when he's right. FG has his four-seamer at 97.8! It's just 12 PA. 94 on the season isn't arbitrary, there's a huge split in the data. Statcast only does >= and <= selections, and no fractional velos, so it's hard to do buckets of each mph.
But here's Dalbec on the season:
.253 / .188 94+ (51)
.306 / .190 95+ (33) .356 / .188 96+ (19) .404 / .063 97+ (11)
I can do math to get the bucket numbers, but it looks like there's little change until you get to 97+
Meanwhile, last 5 starts:
.356 / .390 Cole .254 / .281 Eovaldi.
But that's misleading, because Cole has a good start #2 and Eovaldi a bad start #4. Median start:
.373 / .461 Cole
.227 / .227 Eovaldi
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2021 11:51:20 GMT -5
MLB Network is reporting Vázquez is starting at second? Now that I think about it, they probably mispoke, had the wrong Christian in mind. They probably meant Christian Arroyo.
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Post by greenmonster on Oct 5, 2021 11:53:21 GMT -5
Vazquez at 2B is a bit odd....I would guess he moves behind the plate for defense once Eovaldi is finished on the mound. At that point a more experienced guy (Arroyo, Areuz) goes to 2B
edit....never mind. Arroyo at second
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Post by benzinger on Oct 5, 2021 12:03:11 GMT -5
8 of the 10 "pundits" at mlb.com pick the Yankees. Can’t say I blame them. They just swept us, they have Cole, and we have no JD. They also killed Eovaldi last time. I think the Yankees would be the easy pick here in a best of 7. But in 1 game?? Anything can happen. Hopefully the Sox have an edge being at home. Hopefully Eovaldi is sharp and at his postseason best. Hopefully they can get to Cole early and put up 2-3 runs. After that, I just hope the bullpen can hold a lead late in the game. I don’t know who I would trust out there. At least the main guys they have been using were able to get a couple days of rest. That doesn’t mean I want to see Robles pitching to Judge and/or Stanton with runners on base in a tight game, though.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Oct 5, 2021 12:08:12 GMT -5
I hope Alex thinks like the rest of us and puts in Bobby over Shaw.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 5, 2021 12:25:11 GMT -5
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Post by soxinnj on Oct 5, 2021 12:25:55 GMT -5
Eovaldi, then as needed, Whitlock, Brasier, Pivetta, dare I say Robles (righties), ERod and Taylor (lefties) - my confidence mix. If Nate is sharp, we should not need all of that. Ottavino, Richards, Barnes, Davis scare me. For this particular game, it is the best possible roster for sure, in my view - with JD out and Iglesias ineligible. Don't forget Houck too. He could potentially be a big piece today.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 5, 2021 12:36:49 GMT -5
Yankees -135 is the line
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 5, 2021 12:36:55 GMT -5
How many ABs vs those guys since Aug. 7, though? Also, 94 seems like a bit of an arbitrary cutoff. Cole is a lot quicker than that when he's right. FG has his four-seamer at 97.8! It's just 12 PA. 94 on the season isn't arbitrary, there's a huge split in the data. Statcast only does >= and <= selections, and no fractional velos, so it's hard to do buckets of each mph. But here's Dalbec on the season: .253 / .188 94+ (51)
.306 / .190 95+ (33) .356 / .188 96+ (19) .404 / .063 97+ (11) I can do math to get the bucket numbers, but it looks like there's little change until you get to 97+
Velo No wxOBA wOBA 91 8 .521 .864 92 10 .529 .458 93 17 .233 .268 94 18 .156 .184 95 14 .238 .193 96 8 .290 .360 97+ 11 .404 .063 He annihilates salad. 93 is where he actually starts to struggle, but 94 gives him the most trouble. Above that, the harder they throw, the better he hits the ball. I doubt I'll look into the karma collapse at 97+, but who knows?
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