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10/5 - AL Wild Card Game: Red Sox vs. Yankees
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 4, 2021 21:52:04 GMT -5
Eh, I respectfully disagree on that. They over achieved and then under achieved to balance out what was the expectation. I personally had them at about 93 wins before the season started. They held on to dear life for that WC 1 and were fortunate to have had Tampa Bay taking care of business. Red Sox were fortunate enough to escape 2 of the 3 games they swept against a Nationals team with nothing to play for. They limped in for months and showed no real hope for possible advancement. The team isn't overly young either, but they do have some young guys (Houck, Whitlock, maybe Dalbec) that showed they could be counted on in the future. Success based on March expectations? Sure. I just think they did enough in season to have expected more from them. I'm not even saying win the AL East, but they should have been able to push Tampa down the stretch. Are you serious or is this a joke ?. The expectation was 92 wins ? That's just flat out wrong. I did predict 92 wins and the 1st WC in the prediction thread. And I spent all winter here explaining why the team would be that good.
But that was a) the work of a professional sabermetrician, who b) was so invested in figuring out how good the Red Sox might be that he spent a stupid amount of time analyzing 2020.
Certainly Tom Tippett could have reached the same conclusion, and had the interest, but he's busy as a consultant. I'm retired with enough free time to immerse myself in baseball and two or three subjects I'm even more passionate about.
I think they have played exactly as good as they really were. But that was way better than anyone expected other than myself, and some other people who had presumably read my analysis here (although they might have thought so anyway).
As far as which team shows up tomorrow ... I have graphs that seem to show that "team clutch" runs in streaks (testing the data for statistical significance is thorny, though). That makes very good psychological sense. But it's a fragile state. A team that was well-centered yesterday can start pressing in the middle of the next game.
In any case, the team that shows up for the first pitch tomorrow is the team that came back from a 15% or worse chance of winning 7 times in their first 100 games (the expected number given their losses) but then did it just twice in their next 61 ... where the expected number was 5. And one of those came after they had a 93.4% chance and Barnes lost the lead in the 9th. *
And the team that shows up is also the team that yesterday came back from 6.7% with the season on the line. And that's all that's relevant.
* Devers of course had the key hit in that game, at home vs. the Rangers, the 2-out double in the bottom of the 10th that scored Xander from first to re-tie the game after Whitlock had given up a run in the top of the frame.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 4, 2021 23:05:27 GMT -5
The offense was never in question. The only issue was how the pitching would play out. The starters were good enough to get them a nice lead in the first half. The last part of the schedule was considerably more difficult and the record reflected that. The covid effect on their bullpen didn't help them at all either, but they held on to make it to a wildcard spot.
Some of the early posts were very negative, seemingly ignoring that offense. Again, they were going to score. They'll only go as far as their pitching takes them postseason. They seem to have enough warm bodies at this point to at least make it competitive. There are some very tough teams in front of them should they make it past New York. But they're not dead yet and there were a few who had them buried before it started.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 4, 2021 23:12:16 GMT -5
I can imagine Arroyo doing something big. He’s looked like a guy who elevates his game this year. Hopefully Arroyo can play solid defense and have some productive AB's. He has 1 hit and 9 AB's since 7/18/21 I know Iglesias was red hot, but I think Cora really did a bit of a disservice to Arroyo by not getting him more AB’s down the stretch. Especially with the knowledge that Iglesias would not be on the postseason roster.
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Post by soxinsf on Oct 4, 2021 23:39:15 GMT -5
Hopefully Arroyo can play solid defense and have some productive AB's. He has 1 hit and 9 AB's since 7/18/21 I know Iglesias was red hot, but I think Cora really did a bit of a disservice to Arroyo by not getting him more ABâs down the stretch. Especially with the knowledge that Iglesias would not be on the postseason roster. Did you ever hear the expression, win first and ask questions later? Every time I thought it was time to replace Iglesias with Arroyo, Iglesias would come through. And Arroyo played like he was not ready. Ultimately, they had to win. That is how Renfroe wound up in CF. Hitting got prioritized over defense. I would like to see Iglesias back next year. But there is a lot of water to pass under that bridge like Sox money, better offers, a permanent CF pushing Kiké back to 2B.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 4, 2021 23:56:01 GMT -5
I just saw an ALDS commercial on Fox. They feature pics of 4 players: Judge, Jose Abreu, Arozarena & Altuve. They didn’t even bother to put a Sox player in the graphic.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 5, 2021 0:20:55 GMT -5
The mopey crew is very pre-sad about our upcoming loss to the Yankees. And then the reasonable people are saying "Are you kidding?" which I am on board with, except that then they go on to say "...this team was supposed to suck, we're playing with house money!" And I just don't know where that idea ever came from. This team looked like a wild card-ish team from the beginning to me. Fangraphs gave them a 39% chance of making the playoffs before opening day.
To make the wild card was a very reasonable hope for this team. But that doesn't mean it's not a good thing that they made the wild card!
The Yankees, on the other hand, started with an 83% chance of making the ALDS and now they're down to 49%. They also choked away a 2 game lead in the wild card race with 5 games to go and now have to play the wild card game on the road. Now that's a team heading in the wrong direction...
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,837
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Post by nomar on Oct 5, 2021 0:46:41 GMT -5
I just saw an ALDS commercial on Fox. They feature pics of 4 players: Judge, Jose Abreu, Arozarena & Altuve. They didn’t even bother to put a Sox player in the graphic. How will I sleep tonight?
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Post by greenmonster on Oct 5, 2021 8:02:00 GMT -5
At this point, projections, probabilities, or anything that happened previously doesn't matter anymore. A one-game loser-goes-home is the epitome of small sample size. Anything can happen. As an attentive Red Sox fan I have concerns about their weaknesses just as my Yankee fan friends have concerns about the Yankees weaknesses. Like others on this board I have been frustrated at times with this team but it doesn't matter. I am all in.....Beat the MFY's
The Red Sox CAN WIN THIS GAME!
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 5, 2021 8:02:57 GMT -5
Hard to get excited for this game with how this team's bullpen has been performing and how they've done in "must-win" situations and games against superior opponents. With that said, win this ONE GAME, and the entire season is a complete success. Anything more is just extra credit. Even if they lose ALDS game 5 or the ALCS game 7 up 7 runs in the 9th inning. All I ask for is that they win 1 time. This seems very strange for any serious Sox fan. I had an old boss who made my life miserable who was a big Yankees fan. I’ve been to hundreds of Red Sox games since I was 8 and this is my 4th Yankee game this year tonight. I’m a 3rd generation Boston sports fan, my Grandpa used to live in the Fenway area in the 40s. We have a chance to kill shot them after they gave up 5 of their top 25 prospects and have Cole in his prime. This is how I feel as well.
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Post by cheers on Oct 5, 2021 8:36:05 GMT -5
I'm really not asking for much for tonight.
1) A carbon copy of 2004 ALCS game 7
2) A-Rod gets loudly fired on air during the 4th inning.
3) Chapman gets his eyes beat shut by girls in the dugout after the game.
It is October, and 2004 taught me that anything is possible in October...
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Post by benzinger on Oct 5, 2021 9:26:00 GMT -5
I just saw an ALDS commercial on Fox. They feature pics of 4 players: Judge, Jose Abreu, Arozarena & Altuve. They didn’t even bother to put a Sox player in the graphic. How will I sleep tonight? It also bothers be that your name is “Nomar”, and you have a pic of 3 Red Sox players...but none of whom are Nomar. I guess that’s a topic for another time.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 5, 2021 9:32:48 GMT -5
The mopey crew is very pre-sad about our upcoming loss to the Yankees. And then the reasonable people are saying "Are you kidding?" which I am on board with, except that then they go on to say "...this team was supposed to suck, we're playing with house money!" And I just don't know where that idea ever came from. This team looked like a wild card-ish team from the beginning to me. Fangraphs gave them a 39% chance of making the playoffs before opening day.
To make the wild card was a very reasonable hope for this team. But that doesn't mean it's not a good thing that they made the wild card!
The Yankees, on the other hand, started with an 83% chance of making the ALDS and now they're down to 49%. They also choked away a 2 game lead in the wild card race with 5 games to go and now have to play the wild card game on the road. Now that's a team heading in the wrong direction...
Prior to the season, the Yankees were considered a shoo-in to get to 100 wins this year. Meanwhile, the Red Sox were trying to come back from one of their worst seasons ever. Most would have considered a .500 season a success given that information. Tonight’s game is huge. If the Sox can pull it off, the Yankees probably fire Boone(and maybe Cashman?). They would be in total disarray. Judge is a year away from FA and will require an enormous extension. Doing so would probably commit $100m/year to him, Stanton and Cole for the foreseeable future. They have others that are due big raises, as well. The Sox need to win this one tonight. Anything that happens after that is a bonus.
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Post by jkfer98 on Oct 5, 2021 9:55:07 GMT -5
Wow, JD is not on the roster for tonight. So looks like it'll be Schwarber DH, Bobby 1B.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 5, 2021 9:58:30 GMT -5
Any chance we get Shaw at 1B? Bobby vs Cole is basically asking for an inning or two of Bobby whiffing with men on base.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2021 9:59:08 GMT -5
Wow, JD is not on the roster for tonight. So looks like it'll be Schwarber DH, Bobby 1B. That's not good. He must have really messed up that ankle. Yankees don't have Lemahieu and the Sox don't have JDM. Both teams without a key bat.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 5, 2021 9:59:23 GMT -5
The offense was never in question. The only issue was how the pitching would play out. The starters were good enough to get them a nice lead in the first half. The last part of the schedule was considerably more difficult and the record reflected that. The covid effect on their bullpen didn't help them at all either, but they held on to make it to a wildcard spot. Some of the early posts were very negative, seemingly ignoring that offense. Again, they were going to score. They'll only go as far as their pitching takes them postseason. They seem to have enough warm bodies at this point to at least make it competitive. There are some very tough teams in front of them should they make it past New York. But they're not dead yet and there were a few who had them buried before it started. Simply "warm bodies" don't get you much of anywhere in the playoffs, where most teams are playing with more stacked pitching. I realize ERA isn't the preferred parameter for gauging pitching effectiveness, but it's interesting that the 5 playoff teams at this point consist of the top 4 AL teams in ERA ...... and then there's the Sox. I think today's game is simple to analyze. If Eovaldi gives the Sox at least 6+ effective innings, they have a shot at winning. If he doesn't, they don't, because the pen weakness WILL show up, probably to a catastrophic degree, at some point during the bullpen parade. The Sox struggle too hard to get outs out of the bullpen. If Eovaldi gives the Sox 5 good innings with a reasonable pitch count and they don't bring him back out for the 6th, I WILL be steamed.
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Post by jkfer98 on Oct 5, 2021 9:59:31 GMT -5
Any chance we get Shaw at 1B? Bobby vs Cole is basically asking for an inning or two of Bobby whiffing with men on base. Forgot about Shaw, honestly I might prefer that over Bobby. Bring in Bobby late when a lefty comes in.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,837
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Post by nomar on Oct 5, 2021 10:00:26 GMT -5
How will I sleep tonight? It also bothers be that your name is “Nomar”, and you have a pic of 3 Red Sox players...but none of whom are Nomar. I guess that’s a topic for another time. What can I say? I’m a loose cannon.
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Post by cba82 on Oct 5, 2021 10:04:15 GMT -5
“I think today's game is simple to analyze. If Eovaldi gives the Sox at least 6+ effective innings, they have a shot at winning.” — Can someone please explain: 1) Why Eovaldi was so horrible vs. the Yankees the last time he faced them (was he tipping his pitches?), and 2) Why we should expect better tonight.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,936
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 5, 2021 10:06:03 GMT -5
Wow, JD is not on the roster for tonight. So looks like it'll be Schwarber DH, Bobby 1B. I can't find any source for this anywhere.
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Post by jkfer98 on Oct 5, 2021 10:08:24 GMT -5
Wow, JD is not on the roster for tonight. So looks like it'll be Schwarber DH, Bobby 1B. I can't find any source for this anywhere.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2021 10:12:18 GMT -5
“I think today's game is simple to analyze. If Eovaldi gives the Sox at least 6+ effective innings, they have a shot at winning.” — Can someone please explain: 1) Why Eovaldi was so horrible vs. the Yankees the last time he faced them (was he tipping his pitches?), and 2) Why we should expect better tonight. I think he said he had a problem with getting the right feel or grip if I recall correctly? Then it got chalked up to mechanics and that it's been fixed. I'd surmise that Eovaldi's worst outing against the Yankees was last time, that he should be better. Hard to be worse. I'd hope he'd pitch like he did this past July against them. They couldn't touch him until the 8th. I suspect it will be somewhere in between both extremes. What I'd like to see is delicious irony tonight. The Sox offense has struggled against minor league caliber starting pitching the past week or so. Wouldn't it be hillarious if the Sox teed off on a Cy Young candidate after struggling against the Joan Adon's of the world? Not having JDM in the lineup won't help though. He took Cole deep in a game in July. I'd probably start Shaw and hope he can work a walk and then have Dalbec on the bench ready for Chapman, who after last time, is unlikely to throw his slider/offspeed to him.
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Post by taiwansox on Oct 5, 2021 10:14:13 GMT -5
I can't find any source for this anywhere. Why Davis over Sawamura? Not that Sawamura is great, but Davis basically hasn’t had a full clean inning since he joined us
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2021 10:16:16 GMT -5
Why Davis over Sawamura? Not that Sawamura is great, but Davis basically hasn’t had a full clean inning since he joined us I'm guessing there's a spot where Gardner leads off and Rizzo bats 3rd. Odor will be in there somewhere too, but I'm guessing there's a spot 2 out of the 3 batters are lefty although the idea of Davis facing Judge is kind of terrifying. Maybe if Odor bats 8th and Gardner leads off, that would work better...have him face 8-9-1 if Odor bats 8th.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 5, 2021 10:19:15 GMT -5
Wow, JD is not on the roster for tonight. So looks like it'll be Schwarber DH, Bobby 1B. I can't find any source for this anywhere. ... because Google sucks. ESPN had it at 11:01. MLB.com is asleep at the wheel.
Taylor is on the roster. That's a pleasant surprise.
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