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Red Sox vs. Astros 2021 ALCS Gameday Thread
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 13, 2021 6:40:56 GMT -5
I keep hearing people want Houck as a reliever than a starter but I feel like its too much of a waste. He seems like more of a horse and less of a guy that gets super fired up and throws gas for one inning like Papelbon or Kimbrel. I much prefer him as a back end starter than as the new Whitlock. Bulk relievers have a lower ceiling of value and we hve a tough division where we need as much value as possible. The Houck Conundrum, confounding wannabe Manager's since 2020. LOL. As far as this postseason his role is pretty much defined as reliever. The question going forward is it a role that was optimal as he was used in Game 2, or is it better as in Game 4. You don't want to burn one of your best arms while behind, but he changed the tempo of the series with that stellar performance. If you believe that some of his struggles in Game 4, if you want to define it as that, was because of how much he pitched in Game 2, then I think it should be short relief stints (1-2 innings) as often as possble. We know what we have in Whitlock. Taylor is throwing in nicely. Brasier is still a question mark. Ottavino...anyone's guess. If the club thinks that he can pitch in back to back days, I would prefer that Starters are likely going to play prominent relief roles. Selfishly, if we are tied or winning, I want to see the 7th-9th innings with Houck and Whitlock taking the vast majority of the action.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Oct 13, 2021 6:49:51 GMT -5
I'am only days away from the holy trinity. I will be traveling up to Boston for the Bruins home opener on Saturday, the Patriots game on Sunday, and will stay to watch game 3 of the ALCS on Monday.
Be jealous.......be very jealous.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 13, 2021 7:12:44 GMT -5
McCullers not being 100% is a pretty big deal for the Stros.
Anything can happen in the post season and I am hoping to see the Sox bats continue to rake.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Oct 13, 2021 7:23:47 GMT -5
I didn't want to face the Astros because it felt like they kicked our butts this year.......but.....then again I felt the same thing about the Rays.
That's the beautiful thing about a 7 game series. Every game played before now does not matter, you just have to win 4 times before the other team does.
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Post by jbsox on Oct 13, 2021 7:41:46 GMT -5
In a longer series we’ll probably need Barnes and Ottovino to come up big at some point, like they have for the majority of the season. Hoping they find their groove back. Dare I say we might need Perez at some point to give us a little length and buy us a couple innings at some point as well.
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Post by trajanacc on Oct 13, 2021 8:31:19 GMT -5
Hopefully David Price’s performance in the 2018 World Series taught us something about writing off elite pitchers in the playoffs based on a small recent sample.
Sale is still our best pitcher, I want him starting two games.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 13, 2021 9:21:20 GMT -5
Correa was such a good SS this year. Gonna be nice having him and Bogaerts up the middle next season. Endorse.
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Post by huskies15 on Oct 13, 2021 9:22:45 GMT -5
Feels like this series is going to have a million runs and a few 5 hour games. Buckle up.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 13, 2021 9:24:37 GMT -5
Hopefully David Price’s performance in the 2018 World Series taught us something about writing off elite pitchers in the playoffs based on a small recent sample. Sale is still our best pitcher, I want him starting two games. Sale is the best when looked at in body of work, but I honestly think Eovaldi is the Sox best pitcher right now. To ignore or discount Sale's ongoing recovery from TJ surgery is ill-advised. He is still at a high level but inconsistent now at best, and his velo is down about 3-4 mph. Those are both significant factors to consider when starting him against a team that devours lefties.
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Post by manfred on Oct 13, 2021 9:27:56 GMT -5
Correa was such a good SS this year. Gonna be nice having him and Bogaerts up the middle next season. Endorse. Not the massive contract I’d offer first.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 13, 2021 9:44:27 GMT -5
McCullers not being 100% is a pretty big deal for the Stros. Anything can happen in the post season and I am hoping to see the Sox bats continue to rake. This is a HUGE break for the Sox. I watched McCullers in game 1 of the ALDS and he was absolutely untouchable. He finished the series allowing 1ER in 10.2IP. He might be the best starter on either team, actually.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 13, 2021 9:48:44 GMT -5
Hopefully David Price’s performance in the 2018 World Series taught us something about writing off elite pitchers in the playoffs based on a small recent sample. Sale is still our best pitcher, I want him starting two games. Did you not see Sale’s last 2 starts? He had nothing. He couldn’t throw strikes, either. He’s certainly PAID to be their best starter, but his performance has been anything but. Since he basically HAS to start at some point, I’d slot him in game 4 after Eovaldi, Erod and Pivetta. I might even try and get him an inning in games 1 or 2 as a tune-up. He’s been an effective RP in the playoffs. That is not the case as a postseason starter, though.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 13, 2021 9:49:17 GMT -5
Hopefully David Price’s performance in the 2018 World Series taught us something about writing off elite pitchers in the playoffs based on a small recent sample. Sale is still our best pitcher, I want him starting two games. Sale is the best when looked at in body of work, but I honestly think Eovaldi is the Sox best pitcher right now. To ignore or discount Sale's ongoing recovery from TJ surgery is ill-advised. He is still at a high level but inconsistent now at best, and his velo is down about 3-4 mph. Those are both significant factors to consider when starting him against a team that devours lefties. Yeah. The problem with Sale isn't his "history" of struggling in post-season games. It's his lack of command and the velocity not quite being what it was due to his recovery from TJS, not some sort of "mental block" of any silly thing like that. And yeah, Houston, with the exception of Alvarez and Brantley are pretty right handed, which could be tough for Sale and E-Rod. This is a series where the Sox are going to need at least one of Ottavino and/or Barnes to re-emerge as late inning options. Ottavino is tough on righties and they'll need it. I would be concerned that his control would be off from having too much time off lately, but they'll need to get a lot of contributions from their righty pitchers. But because of the need for Pivetta and Houck to be able to pitch in relief during the series, the Sox have to rely on Sale to start Game 3 and a potential Game 7 if it comes down to it. They'll need to save Pivetta for Game 4 to start if he's already pitched in relief. Otherwise they could start Pivetta for Game 3 and go with Sale for Game 4. My guess is Sale starts Game 3 and Pivetta will wind up in relief for either Game 1 or 2. Wouldn't be shocked if Pivetta came into a high leverage one inning situation for Game 1 if it comes down to it.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 13, 2021 9:54:26 GMT -5
McCullers not being 100% is a pretty big deal for the Stros. Anything can happen in the post season and I am hoping to see the Sox bats continue to rake. This is a HUGE break for the Sox. I watched McCullers in game 1 of the ALDS and he was absolutely untouchable. He finished the series allowing 1ER in 10.2IP. He might be the best starter on either team, actually. I would think the Sox get either Greinke or Odorizzi for Game 4? Both are hittable pitchers that the Sox are going to have to mash. I'd think Garcia is their best pitcher at this point. I think he was tough on the Sox twice this year if I remember correctly. I think the Sox had one good game, one bad game against Urquidy. I can't remember what they did against Framber Valdez. Suffice to say, the Sox are going to have to hit the Astros pitching obviously. They were 4th in ERA, so it is a tough staff, and I think Baker will handle it differently than Cash who was ready to yank his starter ten minutes into his start. If the Sox don't get to the starters Baker will let them pitch.
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Post by jbuttah on Oct 13, 2021 10:00:10 GMT -5
McCullers not being 100% is a pretty big deal for the Stros. Anything can happen in the post season and I am hoping to see the Sox bats continue to rake. According to ESPN, McCullers came out of the game in the 4th inning with the dreaded "forearm tightness" that so often leads to TJ surgery. I'd actually be a little surprised if he pitches again in these playoffs.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 13, 2021 10:35:33 GMT -5
The Sox went 2-5 against HOU during the regular season and were outscored 42-25. UGLY.
Then again, the Sox are 7-1 in October. So there’s that.
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Post by kjkramer on Oct 13, 2021 10:56:38 GMT -5
For the third time in this 2 page post.... I am NOT comfortable with Sale or Edrod against this Astro Offense. Eovaldi should definitely get the opening game. I would pitch Sale in game 2 with Houck at the quick ready to go from pitch 1. If Houck is not needed in game 2 because Sale suddenly becomes Sale again.... I start him in Game 3. I would then seriously start Pivetta with Whitlock as a piggy back if needed. Edrod would be a pen guy for me and inning eater. I would then repeat games 1-3
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Post by patford on Oct 13, 2021 10:59:19 GMT -5
The Sox went 2-5 against HOU during the regular season and were outscored 42-25. UGLY. Then again, the Sox are 7-1 in October. So there’s that. It's unfathomable that the Rays scored nearly as many runs (857 ) as the MLB leading Astros (863). The Astros lineup is ridiculously loaded and if you look at the Rays aside from Franco there isn't a hitter on that team who is truly scary.
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Post by jmei on Oct 13, 2021 11:12:16 GMT -5
Hopefully David Price’s performance in the 2018 World Series taught us something about writing off elite pitchers in the playoffs based on a small recent sample. Sale is still our best pitcher, I want him starting two games. Did you not see Sale’s last 2 starts? He had nothing. He couldn’t throw strikes, either. He’s certainly PAID to be their best starter, but his performance has been anything but. Since he basically HAS to start at some point, I’d slot him in game 4 after Eovaldi, Erod and Pivetta. I might even try and get him an inning in games 1 or 2 as a tune-up. He’s been an effective RP in the playoffs. That is not the case as a postseason starter, though. In his last two starts, Sale threw 7.2 innings with 13 (!) strikeouts, which represents a 15.3 (!!!) K/9. Yes, he had 4 walks, which represents a 4.7 BB/9, and a 5.87 ERA, but also a 3.04 FIP and a 3.18 xFIP.
He averaged 94 mph on his fastball during those two starts, which is less than 0.5 mph less than what he averaged in 2017-18.
You can't really even argue that he was hit especially hard. Per Statcast, his hardhit% during those two starts was just 22.2%, compared to 30.3% in 2017 and 26.8% in 2018, and his barrel% during those two starts was just 5.6%, compared to 5.5% in 2017 and 7.2% in 2018. All of which is to say, by all accounts, Sale looked more unlucky than bad in his last two starts.
ADD: whoops, the filter doesn’t want to include his start against TB so the above are the last two regular season starts instead. Still, add in the TB start and it’s still not as negative of a picture as is being painted.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 13, 2021 11:14:01 GMT -5
Hopefully David Price’s performance in the 2018 World Series taught us something about writing off elite pitchers in the playoffs based on a small recent sample. Sale is still our best pitcher, I want him starting two games. Did you not see Sale’s last 2 starts? He had nothing. He couldn’t throw strikes, either. He’s certainly PAID to be their best starter, but his performance has been anything but. Since he basically HAS to start at some point, I’d slot him in game 4 after Eovaldi, Erod and Pivetta. I might even try and get him an inning in games 1 or 2 as a tune-up. He’s been an effective RP in the playoffs. That is not the case as a postseason starter, though. Pretty impressive that he managed to get 9 Ks in 3.1 innings without being able to throw strikes.
ADD: Yeah, what jmei said. And also, I watched the Washington start. That was just a case of straight-up bad BABIP luck. Other than the 1.000 BABIP, he made 7 outs on Ks. Almost teice as many Ks as balls in play! He did have 3 BBs, so he wasn't perfect, but still, if you actually watched that game, you didn't see a poor performance - much like with Rodriguez's 7-game stretch of bad luck in May and June, which people nonetheless find it impossible to believe was caused by a bunch of bloops and ridiculously cheap homers (the game in Houston, by the way, beind the absolute apex of that dumb little stretch for him).
As for his start against TB, one makable play by his infield defense and he would probably have gotten out of the inning. Instead he got BABIP's again, and then a guy hit a homer on a fastball that was probably placed in the exact spot Sale wanted it.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 13, 2021 11:41:58 GMT -5
Here we go again. Fear the Yankees........Rays.......Astros. They should fear us, GDmit !! We are the ones on a roll. We just took down the MFY and Rays. Fear the Reaper, sure. Fear the Astros....Forget it.
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Post by jbuttah on Oct 13, 2021 11:44:43 GMT -5
For me personally, it's not the fear of losing. Rather it's the fear of losing to the Astros. For some reason I just can't stand that team, starting with Bregman, followed closely by Altuve. I hate that I have to watch them play now.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Oct 13, 2021 12:12:47 GMT -5
Regular season means nothing right now. I like their chances vs Houston.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 13, 2021 12:14:32 GMT -5
For me personally, it's not the fear of losing. Rather it's the fear of losing to the Astros. For some reason I just can't stand that team, starting with Bregman, followed closely by Altuve. I hate that I have to watch them play now. At this point the "fear of losing" is gone for me. The Sox beat the Yankees. Everything here on in is gravy. That doesn't mean I want a reenactment of the 1986 World Series or something like that, but the Sox are playing a team that outscored their opponents by 200 runs. The Sox only outscored their opponents by 80 runs. But then again the Rays had very similar numbers to the Astros with the difference being that they were as good as their pythagorean record while the Astros underachieved theirs, probably in part to their pen and perhaps decisions made by Dusty Baker in close games. The Sox overachieved by about 4 games, probably in part to decisions made by Alex Cora in close games. And the Rays having that differential didn't do them an ounce of good in the series. I do think, in retrospect, their lack of experience played a factor in their demise. Their young pitchers struggled. I mean, if the Sox had McClanahan, Baz, and Patino expected to play a big part in the future, we'd all be excited. Those youngsters will have better days, and even Franco who threw away a ball in the 8th. They're just getting started. The Astros have a more experienced core, one that I'm sure is pretty ticked off about losing in 2018. Their lineup is 7 deep (I neglected to realize how good Tucker is and that he's LH). Their pitching is on the young side between Valdez, Urquidy, and Garcia. The Astros should be the favorites to win. No shame in losing to a better team. But then again the Rays were favorites and for good reason and the Yankees were favored as well. So what that shows is that it doesn't mean that the Sox can't win. McCullers injury could be a factor and the Sox could well make a ton of noise in this series - wouldn't put it past them. The path to a Championship would involve all teams favored to win against the Sox. The Yankees were about a plus 40 on their season so in retrospect you can make the argument the Yankees shouldn't have been favored, even though I think the betting line had them as slight favorites based on their 2nd half superiority. I know it's seen as disrespect, but there's no way the Sox should be favored to beat Tampa or Houston or SF/LA if it comes to that. Nobody other than a Red Sox fan would pick them to be the favorite against Tampa, Houston, or SF/LA. To me, all that does, is ratchet up their accomplishments if they can beat these teams, making it all that much more remarkable and amazing. If they win against a team they're supposed to win again, that's nice and we're all happy, but if they win against a team they're not suppose to beat, the level of satisfaction is huge, and especially this particular path they'd have to go on to win. I'd have been thrilled if the ChiSox had won and if Atlanta knocks off either SF/LA. Those are more evenly matched teams for the Sox, but with the ChiSox at least, that's not what happened. So if the Sox pull this off they will have truly earned it. And if they don't, they weren't supposed to anyways. I'll just root for either LA/SF/Atl to beat Houston in the Series if it comes down to that. Either way, Houston's time in the sun is winding down. I'm sure their system has taken huge hits, Correa is a goner, and soon it'll reflect in the standings for them. Won't be sad when that happens.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 13, 2021 12:28:27 GMT -5
Did you not see Sale’s last 2 starts? He had nothing. He couldn’t throw strikes, either. He’s certainly PAID to be their best starter, but his performance has been anything but. Since he basically HAS to start at some point, I’d slot him in game 4 after Eovaldi, Erod and Pivetta. I might even try and get him an inning in games 1 or 2 as a tune-up. He’s been an effective RP in the playoffs. That is not the case as a postseason starter, though. Pretty impressive that he managed to get 9 Ks in 3.1 innings without being able to throw strikes.
ADD: Yeah, what jmei said. And also, I watched the Washington start. That was just a case of straight-up bad BABIP luck. Other than the 1.000 BABIP, he made 7 outs on Ks. Almost teice as many Ks as balls in play! He did have 3 BBs, so he wasn't perfect, but still, if you actually watched that game, you didn't see a poor performance - much like with Rodriguez's 7-game stretch of bad luck in May and June, which people nonetheless find it impossible to believe was caused by a bunch of bloops and ridiculously cheap homers (the game in Houston, by the way, beind the absolute apex of that dumb little stretch for him).
As for his start against TB, one makable play by his infield defense and he would probably have gotten out of the inning. Instead he got BABIP's again, and then a guy hit a homer on a fastball that was probably placed in the exact spot Sale wanted it.
I know I know. It can’t be that Sale was lousy. It has to be that Mercury was in retrograde or some other pretzel logic to explain how he was actually really good. I’m not buying it. I think he’s cooked this year. But I sure hope that I am wrong.
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