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Red Sox vs. Astros 2021 ALCS Gameday Thread
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Post by soxinsf on Oct 16, 2021 23:44:43 GMT -5
Pretty amazing that the two pitchers we trust the most are rookies. Here's hoping Houck figures out what he was doing wrong, whether tipping, mechanical, or between the ears.
Houck and Hansel got burned on letter-hi fastballs that were inches into the strikezone instead of just out of it. You can't do that to good hitters. Altuve and Correa are both good hitters. Truth. Pitchers are not robots. This miss their spots regularly. Sometimes they get burned when that happens. The question that needs answering for any pitcher is how often and with what consequences. I am guessing that Cora uses Darwinzon again. As for Houck, that is a no-brainer. With Cora it is an act of faith.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 16, 2021 23:44:54 GMT -5
I wasn't online when Garcia begged out and Dusty claimed it was an injury but I imagine this board was lighting up like my idiot neighbors' Halloween decorations.
It's complete bs because not only did it allow Odorizzi to ice Nate for 20+ minutes but now HOU will be able to swap an obviously spooked Garcia for... anyone with a pulse.
There should be a rule that if one team claims an injury to swap out a player, the opposing team also has the option to swap someone out (paging Sawamura-san...).
Garcia legitimately looked like something was bothering him. His delivery was all over the place. I know everyone gets into conspiracy theories when the Astros was involved(and usually for good reason), but this wasn’t some master plan to ice Eovaldi and get Odorizzi into the game. It would be just fine if the Astros have to sub Garcia out. He was great this year. Yeah, people are losing me with the idea that the Astros cleverly manipulated the situation to... take one of their best starters out of the series altogether, and then bring in Odorizzi who is now burned for game 4? Their rotation is a complete shambles. I don't think that is a good thing for them!
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Post by benzinger on Oct 16, 2021 23:49:55 GMT -5
Garcia legitimately looked like something was bothering him. His delivery was all over the place. I know everyone gets into conspiracy theories when the Astros was involved(and usually for good reason), but this wasn’t some master plan to ice Eovaldi and get Odorizzi into the game. It would be just fine if the Astros have to sub Garcia out. He was great this year. Yeah, people are losing me with the idea that the Astros cleverly manipulated the situation to... take one of their best starters out of the series altogether, and then bring in Odorizzi who is now burned for game 4? Their rotation is a complete shambles. I don't think that is a good thing for them!
Looks like Urquidy in game 3 and Greinke in game 4 now. I’m guessing it’s Erod and then Pivetta for the Sox? I know they want to give Pivetta as much time as possible to rest after he was worked so hard in the last series.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 16, 2021 23:52:31 GMT -5
Just saw that HOU has Verlander($33m) AND Greinke($32m) coming off the books after this season. They can really go shopping this Winter and they definitely have the cash to keep Correa if they want.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 17, 2021 0:03:17 GMT -5
Gee, the Astros are even more boned than I realized. From MLB:
So they probably won't want to replace Garcia on the roster, since that would take him out of a potential World Series in which they would really need him (and the replacement options are not exactly exciting anyway). They're just down a starting pitcher and can't really do anything about it.
Meanwhile, they burned Odorizzi for game 4, making Greinke the obvious backup option, but he's only stretched out for 40 pitches and he's been bad anyway. Essentially, game 4 is going to be a bullpen game for a team that has lost two of its starting pitchers, and after their starters threw less than 4 innings in the first two games combined.
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Post by aznpopsical on Oct 17, 2021 0:11:55 GMT -5
It’d be really funny if Kiké ends up becoming our version of a Justin Turner after coming over from the Dodgers
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Post by benzinger on Oct 17, 2021 0:27:27 GMT -5
Gee, the Astros are even more boned than I realized. From MLB:
So they probably won't want to replace Garcia on the roster, since that would take him out of a potential World Series in which they would really need him (and the replacement options are not exactly exciting anyway). They're just down a starting pitcher and can't really do anything about it.
Meanwhile, they burned Odorizzi for game 4, making Greinke the obvious backup option, but he's only stretched out for 40 pitches and he's been bad anyway. Essentially, game 4 is going to be a bullpen game for a team that has lost two of its starting pitchers, and after their starters threw less than 4 innings in the first two games combined.
This Astros lineup is obviously as good as any in the game, but their pitching staff is a FAR cry from the days of Cole, Verlander, Morton, Keuchel(even depth pieces like Musgrove, Peacock and McHugh were all good at certain times) etc... Now? This is a beat up staff with no sure things heading into Fenway for 3 games against the hottest lineup in baseball. Sox have taken the upper hand.
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Post by vokuhila on Oct 17, 2021 3:28:51 GMT -5
Andrew Miller 2.0.
Think about this for a sec: Miller didn't figure his sh!t out until he was 28. And then he was one of the best pitchers in baseball for almost 5 years, a guy who the whole league re-imagined their bullpens around.
Darwinzon is still only 24; in fact, he's the youngest player on the team, a couple months younger than Raffy. He also has insane stuff when he's on. Let's not throw out the baby with the bathwater.
Obviously, that doesn't mean much in this particular postseason run but, as I've mentioned above, he hadn't pitched to unfriendly hitters in two weeks before tonight. He's got a couple bullpens to figure out what his problem was tonight (tipping?), so let's see if he can take a step forward when he gets his next shot. With any luck, we'll have a six-run lead in the ninth again.
I agree with this. As horrible as his control is his upside is so big it's hard to give up on him in the long term. I could even see him in a spot in the series but he can't start an inning. The spot for him would be if the team desperately needed a strike out and the other options were worse. Say 2nd and 3rd with one out. I don't think the Miller comparision fits that well TBH, because it lacks one critical component: the Marlins He went 6th overall, got a Major League contract by the Tigers, was one of the center pieces in the Miggy trade...then the Marlins happend, he wasn't terrible, but he certainly didn't reach his ceiling...after that the RS put him back on the Major League track. He thrived everywhere but in Florida. Darwinzon's stuff can be absolutely electric, but his walk rate is killing him...and that is not a new developement, he has exactly two season with a bb/9 lower than 5 (!!!) 2015 in rookie ball and 2017 in A ball. I'm with normar: it's going to be a tough decision, you hate to give up on someone with this kind of stuff, but at this point every pitching coach in the RS system has seen him and no one was able to "fix" him. His window is certainly closing fast.
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Post by vokuhila on Oct 17, 2021 3:32:17 GMT -5
Just saw that HOU has Verlander($33m) AND Greinke($32m) coming off the books after this season. They can really go shopping this Winter and they definitely have the cash to keep Correa if they want. From the looks of it Correa will not be an Astro next season: Carlos Correa Discusses Free Agency
"The two sides had talks about an extension last spring, with the Astros reportedly floating offers of six years/$120MM and five years/$125MM. Even at the time, however, Correa had a dim view of how serious the Astros were, saying “there were not really any negotiations,” and that the Astros “made it clear to me they don’t believe in long contracts, they don’t believe in big contracts.”"
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 17, 2021 3:42:46 GMT -5
Post-season Win Probability Added, total to date. Adjusted for errors. Ninth-inning relievers not yet adjusted for ease of putting up numbers. Name WPA G Whitlock .651 N Pivetta .536 E Hernandez .499 N Eovaldi .386 Opp Err .378 C Vazquez .268 J Martinez .236 R Devers .222 J Taylor .154 A Verdugo .132 A Ottavino .127 K Schwarber .080 T Shaw .069 G Richards .023 M Perez .023 A Davis .015 D Hernandez .002 M Barnes .000 E Rodriguez -.007 X Bogaerts -.013 D Santana -.055 H Sawamura -.081 T Houck -.085 K Plawecki -.128 C Arroyo -.158 R Brasier -.227 B Dalbec -.308 H Renfroe -.328 H Robles -.448 C Sale -.461
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 17, 2021 3:54:05 GMT -5
Post-season Win Probability Added, total to date. Adjusted for errors. Ninth-inning relievers not yet adjusted for ease of putting up numbers. Name WPA G Whitlock .651 N Pivetta .536 E Hernandez .499 N Eovaldi .386 Opp Err .378 C Vazquez .268 J Martinez .236 R Devers .222 J Taylor .154 A Verdugo .132 A Ottavino .127 K Schwarber .080 T Shaw .069 G Richards .023 M Perez .023 A Davis .015 D Hernandez .002 M Barnes .000 E Rodriguez -.007 X Bogaerts -.013 D Santana -.055 H Sawamura -.081 T Houck -.085 K Plawecki -.128 C Arroyo -.158 R Brasier -.227 B Dalbec -.308 H Renfroe -.328 H Robles -.448 C Sale -.461 not trying to be disrespectful of this stat, but I am extremely leary of a stat that doesn't have Hernandez as number 1 at this point. Without him, we likely aren't still playing.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Oct 17, 2021 8:41:33 GMT -5
Just saw that HOU has Verlander($33m) AND Greinke($32m) coming off the books after this season. They can really go shopping this Winter and they definitely have the cash to keep Correa if they want. From the looks of it Correa will not be an Astro next season: Carlos Correa Discusses Free Agency
"The two sides had talks about an extension last spring, with the Astros reportedly floating offers of six years/$120MM and five years/$125MM. Even at the time, however, Correa had a dim view of how serious the Astros were, saying “there were not really any negotiations,” and that the Astros “made it clear to me they don’t believe in long contracts, they don’t believe in big contracts.”" I have a suspicion that Boston will try to sign him to play 2nd. I'm not a fan as with any Astros player you have to wonder how good they really are without cheating in some way. I would hate if Boston let all of their pending FAs go just to sign him. The results with Marwin, Springer and Cole have been mixed at best without some form of cheating assisting them.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 17, 2021 9:05:06 GMT -5
From the looks of it Correa will not be an Astro next season: Carlos Correa Discusses Free Agency
"The two sides had talks about an extension last spring, with the Astros reportedly floating offers of six years/$120MM and five years/$125MM. Even at the time, however, Correa had a dim view of how serious the Astros were, saying “there were not really any negotiations,” and that the Astros “made it clear to me they don’t believe in long contracts, they don’t believe in big contracts.”" I have a suspicion that Boston will try to sign him to play 2nd. I'm not a fan as with any Astros player you have to wonder how good they really are without cheating in some way. I would hate if Boston let all of their pending FAs go just to sign him. The results with Marwin, Springer and Cole have been mixed at best without some form of cheating assisting them. I don't think the Sox get involved with the Correa sweepstakes. I think they'll concentrate on their own free agents, X, Devers, and even Eovaldi, and wait until Bloom has the farm system where he wants it and then go after the big free agents, the way the Dodgers have done things.
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Post by jbuttah on Oct 17, 2021 9:07:06 GMT -5
From the looks of it Correa will not be an Astro next season: Carlos Correa Discusses Free Agency
"The two sides had talks about an extension last spring, with the Astros reportedly floating offers of six years/$120MM and five years/$125MM. Even at the time, however, Correa had a dim view of how serious the Astros were, saying “there were not really any negotiations,” and that the Astros “made it clear to me they don’t believe in long contracts, they don’t believe in big contracts.”" I have a suspicion that Boston will try to sign him to play 2nd. I'm not a fan as with any Astros player you have to wonder how good they really are without cheating in some way. I would hate if Boston let all of their pending FAs go just to sign him. The results with Marwin, Springer and Cole have been mixed at best without some form of cheating assisting them. Sign Correa? Yeah, not happening for either side actually. No way Correa signs with a team to play 2nd, and he's likely to get one of those contracts that we probably don't see on the Red Sox for a while, if ever.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Oct 17, 2021 9:08:14 GMT -5
I have a suspicion that Boston will try to sign him to play 2nd. I'm not a fan as with any Astros player you have to wonder how good they really are without cheating in some way. I would hate if Boston let all of their pending FAs go just to sign him. The results with Marwin, Springer and Cole have been mixed at best without some form of cheating assisting them. I don't think the Sox get involved with the Correa sweepstakes. I think they'll concentrate on their own free agents, X, Devers, and even Eovaldi, and wait until Bloom has the farm system where he wants it and then go after the big free agents, the way the Dodgers have done things. This would be the smart way to do things. I don't think they should go long term with Eovaldi. ERod I'd give him a 1 year prove it deal/QO but I'm guessing he can get more elsewhere. Somehow keep Schwarber and JD and move Bobby Bombs for a young SP. Sign Xander, Sign Devers.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 17, 2021 9:45:32 GMT -5
I don't think the Sox get involved with the Correa sweepstakes. I think they'll concentrate on their own free agents, X, Devers, and even Eovaldi, and wait until Bloom has the farm system where he wants it and then go after the big free agents, the way the Dodgers have done things. This would be the smart way to do things. I don't think they should go long term with Eovaldi. ERod I'd give him a 1 year prove it deal/QO but I'm guessing he can get more elsewhere. Somehow keep Schwarber and JD and move Bobby Bombs for a young SP. Sign Xander, Sign Devers. Offering ERod one year is a waste of time, and if you lose him you need to sign someone else. Correa seems unlikely, but I think if there is a medium big FA who would actually be a good deal, Bloom would sign him. I would put Scherzer on that list even at a high price though he may not be interested. Would the older Semien take 5/100 or 120 to play 2b for a year and be Xander insurance? Does it help that he was college roommates with Paul Toboni? That our park is perfect for his pull power. I think there will be one FA signing but not for over 120M—the big money is for resigning. It’d be nice to find several bargains as we did last year, but there were also several frogs who were kissed and did not become princes.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 17, 2021 10:13:24 GMT -5
How is offering ERod a year a waste of time? That’s like the first thing that happens in free agency before anyone makes big decisions. This isn’t the NFL where everyone signs the first few days.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 17, 2021 10:29:50 GMT -5
From the looks of it Correa will not be an Astro next season: Carlos Correa Discusses Free Agency
"The two sides had talks about an extension last spring, with the Astros reportedly floating offers of six years/$120MM and five years/$125MM. Even at the time, however, Correa had a dim view of how serious the Astros were, saying “there were not really any negotiations,” and that the Astros “made it clear to me they don’t believe in long contracts, they don’t believe in big contracts.”" I have a suspicion that Boston will try to sign him to play 2nd. I'm not a fan as with any Astros player you have to wonder how good they really are without cheating in some way. I would hate if Boston let all of their pending FAs go just to sign him. The results with Marwin, Springer and Cole have been mixed at best without some form of cheating assisting them. If they ever did sign him - and I agree with redsox04071318champs, I don't think they do go after him - they'd put him at SS and move Xander to 2nd as Correa had the most runs saved at SS than any AL SS this year. He has superior range, an amazing arm and he's only 27. That seems to preclude him from a shift to 2nd.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 17, 2021 10:30:55 GMT -5
I have a suspicion that Boston will try to sign him to play 2nd. I'm not a fan as with any Astros player you have to wonder how good they really are without cheating in some way. I would hate if Boston let all of their pending FAs go just to sign him. The results with Marwin, Springer and Cole have been mixed at best without some form of cheating assisting them. Sign Correa? Yeah, not happening for either side actually. No way Correa signs with a team to play 2nd, and he's likely to get one of those contracts that we probably don't see on the Red Sox for a while, if ever. If this is true then are you implying Devers is gone when he reaches FA?
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Post by Guidas on Oct 17, 2021 10:35:25 GMT -5
How is offering ERod a year a waste of time? That’s like the first thing that happens in free agency before anyone makes big decisions. This isn’t the NFL where everyone signs the first few days. Unless they are predicated on acquiring someone like Matz or Thor, I would QO Erod, as well. With the CBA in limbo, who knows what will happen with Free Agents? And, at least by Fangraphs, ERod was worth $30M in this, one of his worst years. Bloom's all about value and that seems like value if they think his arm is sound.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 17, 2021 10:59:22 GMT -5
I have a suspicion that Boston will try to sign him to play 2nd. I'm not a fan as with any Astros player you have to wonder how good they really are without cheating in some way. I would hate if Boston let all of their pending FAs go just to sign him. The results with Marwin, Springer and Cole have been mixed at best without some form of cheating assisting them. Sign Correa? Yeah, not happening for either side actually. No way Correa signs with a team to play 2nd, and he's likely to get one of those contracts that we probably don't see on the Red Sox for a while, if ever. Even though he's close with AC, having dealt with Hurricane Maria together in 2017, Correa will sign with HOU. They have a lot of money coming off the books and already have Bregman and Altuve locked up through 2024, which is a pretty sizeable window, considering they've been in the ALCS five years in a row already and have cheap young studs like Alvarez and Tucker already contributing. No reason to think they won't keep him.
There will be a lot of Correa to MFYs talk (they need a SS, so obviously they'll get the biggest name on the market, right?) but they simply can't afford him.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 17, 2021 11:02:16 GMT -5
The Yankees are a complete mess financially. You love to see it.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 17, 2021 11:02:38 GMT -5
Sign Correa? Yeah, not happening for either side actually. No way Correa signs with a team to play 2nd, and he's likely to get one of those contracts that we probably don't see on the Red Sox for a while, if ever. If this is true then are you implying Devers is gone when he reaches FA? Lindor got 10yr/$341m from the Mets. If THAT is what it takes to sign Devers, I wish him well. I don’t want anything to do with a contract that long. I don’t think I would go more than 7 years for ANY player, honestly.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 17, 2021 11:05:29 GMT -5
How is offering ERod a year a waste of time? That’s like the first thing that happens in free agency before anyone makes big decisions. This isn’t the NFL where everyone signs the first few days. Unless they are predicated on acquiring someone like Matz or Thor, I would QO Erod, as well. With the CBA in limbo, who knows what will happen with Free Agents? And, at least by Fangraphs, ERod was worth $30M in this, one of his worst years. Bloom's all about value and that seems like value if they think his arm is sound. If Fangraphs is saying that Erod, and his 4.74ERA over 157 innings, is worth $30m, perhaps we need to use a new system for evaluating a player’s worth.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 17, 2021 11:14:08 GMT -5
Sign Correa? Yeah, not happening for either side actually. No way Correa signs with a team to play 2nd, and he's likely to get one of those contracts that we probably don't see on the Red Sox for a while, if ever. Even though he's close with AC, having dealt with Hurricane Maria together in 2017, Correa will sign with HOU. They have a lot of money coming off the books and already have Bregman and Altuve locked up through 2024, which is a pretty sizeable window, considering they've been in the ALCS five years in a row already and have cheap young studs like Alvarez and Tucker already contributing. No reason to think they won't keep him.
There will be a lot of Correa to MFYs talk (they need a SS, so obviously they'll get the biggest name on the market, right?) but they simply can't afford him.
If the Yankees WERE to sign a Correa, I don’t see how they would be able to resign Judge after next season given what they are already paying Cole and Stanton. They definitely could if they decide to go over the luxury tax, but current ownership has not shown a willingness to do so. P.S. I like Seager more than Correa.
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