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Red Sox vs. Astros 2021 ALCS Gameday Thread
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Post by bluechip on Oct 19, 2021 8:00:06 GMT -5
He DOES deserve more credit than he gets. I’m a big DD fan. He built the best team in franchise history. I know the Sale extension hurt, but it could still be fine in the long-run. There are worse contracts out there. Same here, Cherington is the one who really sucked lol. Don’t get me started on his drafts, especially pitchers. Dombrowski ran out of trade chips because the 2012-2014 drafts were awful (other than Kopech). Cherington won a title as well remember. He kept together a great farm system and gave DD all the pieces he traded away to build the 2018 juggernaut. Did he screw some stuff up? Yeah, but he also offloaded crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. That was a great accomplishment.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 19, 2021 8:03:57 GMT -5
And he traded Margot instead of Devers at a time when they were viewed about the same in the minors. In hindsight, he didn’t even give up much for Sale. Moncada is a nice player, but hardly the monster that was advertised. His worst trade was giving up Travis Shaw for nothing(basically). I think we can live with that one. I don’t even blame DD for the Price contract. Ownership left him with no choice after screwing up so badly with Lester. Cherington got off to a great start, too, btw. Signing the likes of Gomes, Napoli, Victorino and Koji were all great moves for that incredible 2013 team. He just lost his way with the deals for Rusney, Hanley & Panda(among others). He ran out of steam quickly. I don't remember it the same way. Devers was heads and shoulders above Margot, it was between Devers and Moncoda. And DD said no to Devers and yes to Moncada, which obviously worked out great also. Look at this site's rankings history. In April 2015, Margot was #4 and Devers was #5. By July it was Devers #3 and Margot #4. By October, Devers #2 and Margot #4. At that point Devers was rated a 7 (same as Moncada) and Margot a 6 (same as Benintendi). I don't think it's wrong to say that Devers and Margot were on a similar tier, though I do recall most people having Devers slightly ahead at that point.
But on the Sale trade, which I liked at the time and still do, I wouldn't say Dombrowski didn't give up much. Of course, you have to give up real value to get Chris Sale! But Moncada has put up 5 WAR a season the last three years (prorating 2020) - I think that was basically the monster that was advertised! And Kopech still has serious potential, which he started to meet this season.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 19, 2021 8:29:44 GMT -5
I don't remember it the same way. Devers was heads and shoulders above Margot, it was between Devers and Moncoda. And DD said no to Devers and yes to Moncada, which obviously worked out great also. Look at this site's rankings history. In April 2015, Margot was #4 and Devers was #5. By July it was Devers #3 and Margot #4. By October, Devers #2 and Margot #4. At that point Devers was rated a 7 (same as Moncada) and Margot a 6 (same as Benintendi). I don't think it's wrong to say that Devers and Margot were on a similar tier, though I do recall most people having Devers slightly ahead at that point.
But on the Sale trade, which I liked at the time and still do, I wouldn't say Dombrowski didn't give up much. Of course, you have to give up real value to get Chris Sale! But Moncada has put up 5 WAR a season the last three years (prorating 2020) - I think that was basically the monster that was advertised! And Kopech still has serious potential, which he started to meet this season.
First of all Moncada has had 1 very good season and never been above 800 OPS other than that 1 season. I don't know where you are getting that war from but that is generous. Just saying DD including him and not Raffy was smart. As for Margot, without going back and looking at SP rankings, I don't think any GM anywhere would have had him in the same conversations with Raffy as far as a trade goes. I could be wrong but that is my opinion and my recollection regardless of SP rankings. As far as the Sale trade goes, I would do that deal over again every day and twice on friday. I also think by the time his contract is up we will not be looking at it as a bad deal. Just like Eovaldi. I don't want to go on about this. Would rather bask in the glow of what should be known as the Grand Salami Series!!! I would also think the baseball world and gods would be happy to see the cheating Stros getting spanked. They are a very good team so now is not the time to gloat or get distracted. With their pitching staff on the ropes the Sox need to keep up the grind and keep the spikes on the pedal.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 19, 2021 8:31:46 GMT -5
Yes the "Grand Salami Series" should be trademarked. How about one more.
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Post by vokuhila on Oct 19, 2021 8:39:15 GMT -5
But on the Sale trade, which I liked at the time and still do, I wouldn't say Dombrowski didn't give up much. Of course, you have to give up real value to get Chris Sale! But Moncada has put up 5 WAR a season the last three years (prorating 2020) - I think that was basically the monster that was advertised! And Kopech still has serious potential, which he started to meet this season.
Agreed! I think the Beckett and the Sale trade are somewhat similar. The RS gave up very good players (Hanley, Moncada/Kopech) and you can make a case that the trades were slight overpays at the time, but who cares...you can also make a very good case that each of those trade got them a ring! Moncada is a pretty darn good baseball player and I wouldn't be surprised if Kopech has a breakout in '22, he is finally healthy, his stuff is nasty and he will probably start next year...but then again...RING!
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Post by vokuhila on Oct 19, 2021 8:42:08 GMT -5
btw:
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Post by incandenza on Oct 19, 2021 8:57:43 GMT -5
Look at this site's rankings history. In April 2015, Margot was #4 and Devers was #5. By July it was Devers #3 and Margot #4. By October, Devers #2 and Margot #4. At that point Devers was rated a 7 (same as Moncada) and Margot a 6 (same as Benintendi). I don't think it's wrong to say that Devers and Margot were on a similar tier, though I do recall most people having Devers slightly ahead at that point.
But on the Sale trade, which I liked at the time and still do, I wouldn't say Dombrowski didn't give up much. Of course, you have to give up real value to get Chris Sale! But Moncada has put up 5 WAR a season the last three years (prorating 2020) - I think that was basically the monster that was advertised! And Kopech still has serious potential, which he started to meet this season.
First of all Moncada has had 1 very good season and never been above 800 OPS other than that 1 season. I don't know where you are getting that war from but that is generous. Just saying DD including him and not Raffy was smart. It's fWAR. bWAR is a little less bullish but still has him at ~10 WAR since 2019, basically 4 WAR/year. By no means do I regret that we kept Devers, but WARS f and b both have Moncada and Devers as having almost identical value in the past 3 seasons.
It's true that Moncada's OPS was only .787 this season (and .785 for his career), but it was OBP-heavy - his .375 OBP was better than everyone on the Red Sox other than Schwarber. And he plays good defense at a premium position. He's really good!
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Post by benzinger on Oct 19, 2021 9:06:49 GMT -5
OMG. My Yankees’ fans friends are going to lose their friggin’ minds over this one. Hahahaha.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Oct 19, 2021 9:09:15 GMT -5
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Oct 19, 2021 9:15:32 GMT -5
Great move by the Yankees. I hope they keep Boone there for a very long time!
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Post by taiwansox on Oct 19, 2021 9:17:37 GMT -5
That’s like us keeping John Farrell an extra 4 years after the 2017 season lol
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Post by benzinger on Oct 19, 2021 9:18:44 GMT -5
First of all Moncada has had 1 very good season and never been above 800 OPS other than that 1 season. I don't know where you are getting that war from but that is generous. Just saying DD including him and not Raffy was smart. It's fWAR. bWAR is a little less bullish but still has him at ~10 WAR since 2019, basically 4 WAR/year. By no means do I regret that we kept Devers, but WARS f and b both have Moncada and Devers as having almost identical value in the past 3 seasons.
It's true that Moncada's OPS was only .787 this season (and .785 for his career), but it was OBP-heavy - his .375 OBP was better than everyone on the Red Sox other than Schwarber. And he plays good defense at a premium position. He's really good!
Moncada is a gold glove caliber 3B, while Devers is still a bit of an adventure over there(being kind). So a lot of Moncada’s value comes from his premium defense. That’s not how he was advertised, though. I remember his speed and power being discussed as a potential 30/30 threat(the old 5 tool guy). Now, I know that nobody runs anymore, but he stole 3 bases this season and hit 14HR’s in 144 games. Again, he’s a nice player, but hardly the one that “got away”.
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Post by scottysmalls on Oct 19, 2021 9:32:14 GMT -5
Don't really want to get in the Moncada is good debate, but an interesting note I found while looking into it is that since 2019 the MLB leader in fWAR is Marcus Semien, will be really interested to see what kind of contract he signs this offseason.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,508
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Post by nomar on Oct 19, 2021 9:36:15 GMT -5
My girlfriend’s dad is a Yankees fan and it’s his birthday. I sent him the link with a happy birthday text. Probably not going to be his favorite text.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 19, 2021 9:37:13 GMT -5
That’s like us keeping John Farrell an extra 4 years after the 2017 season lol Except John Farrell had a World Series championship on his resume.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 19, 2021 9:42:41 GMT -5
Don't really want to get in the Moncada is good debate, but an interesting note I found while looking into it is that since 2019 the MLB leader in fWAR is Marcus Semien, will be really interested to see what kind of contract he signs this offseason. Semien kind of looks like fool's gold to me. He's had two great offensive seasons, 2019 and 2021, but every other season his wRC+ has been below 100. And now he's 31. I wouldn't be thrilled if my team signed him to a 9-figure deal, though I bet someone does that.
The Blue Jays had such a weird season, in that they way underperformed their pythagorean record, but they also hit the jackpot with Semien and Robbie Ray - a ton of value that will be hard to replace, even by those same two players if they come back. Guerrero and Bichette are still very young, but it would be hard to project them for more than the 11.5 fWAR they got out of them this season. I could see that team never quite building into the juggernaut that everyone assumes they'll be. (But I could also see them winning 100 games next season.)
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 19, 2021 9:52:03 GMT -5
The Boone stuff just makes me that much happier we have the guy we do, Cora is managerial gold.
Just think back to the start Kiké had and how we all couldn't take it anymore with him leading off. AC stood by his man and Red Sox nation is getting rewarded for it, what faith to have in a player. He isn't always right but he isn't wrong all that often and he is loved in that clubhouse.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 19, 2021 9:56:11 GMT -5
The Boone stuff just makes me that much happier we have the guy we do, Cora is managerial gold. Just think back to the start Kiké had and how we all couldn't take it anymore with him leading off. AC stood by his man and Red Sox nation is getting rewarded for it, what faith to have in a player. He isn't always right but he isn't wrong all that often and he is loved in that clubhouse. One of the joys of fandom is knowing with utter confidence that you're smarter than the manager and would reliably make better decisions than him, but Cora really crushes that special joy.
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Post by reasonabledoubt on Oct 19, 2021 10:03:51 GMT -5
Love this team and I love the way it's playing. Just one thing though. Everything I'm reading here and elsewhere - you would think this series is 3-0 and we got Nate pitching tonight on full rest. Maybe because I go way back and don't take anything for granted in a series that has only gone 3 games, but if Pivetta is too jacked up tonight and gives it up early at Fenway (where his numbers aren't as good), and Greinke wiggles out of his 2+ innings without too much damage, this series could turn should Sale struggle tomorrow. Certainly I'd much rather be in the position the Red Sox are in than the Astros. Things are going our way right now with the Altuve errors and the Astros' pitching woes - hoping that continues and we can put this series to bed ASAP.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 19, 2021 10:04:16 GMT -5
"Never reinforce failure" Winston Churchill (..."Unless it's the Yankees") Guidas
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Post by Guidas on Oct 19, 2021 10:06:53 GMT -5
Don't really want to get in the Moncada is good debate, but an interesting note I found while looking into it is that since 2019 the MLB leader in fWAR is Marcus Semien, will be really interested to see what kind of contract he signs this offseason. Semien kind of looks like fool's gold to me. He's had two great offensive seasons, 2019 and 2021, but every other season his wRC+ has been below 100. And now he's 31. I wouldn't be thrilled if my team signed him to a 9-figure deal, though I bet someone does that. The Blue Jays had such a weird season, in that they way underperformed their pythagorean record, but they also hit the jackpot with Semien and Robbie Ray - a ton of value that will be hard to replace, even by those same two players if they come back. Guerrero and Bichette are still very young, but it would be hard to project them for more than the 11.5 fWAR they got out of them this season. I could see that team never quite building into the juggernaut that everyone assumes they'll be. (But I could also see them winning 100 games next season.)
Agree. It's always a dicey proposition to sign a guy over 30 to a long-term deal who is coming off an outlier career year. This goes for pitchers and position players. There are exceptions, but you really (really) have to do your homework well.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,019
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Post by mobaz on Oct 19, 2021 10:07:40 GMT -5
Guys, I'm not sure my nerves can take 3 to 11 more games of this! I like this team a lot, and we are in a great position, but the games are long and intense. Might have to sit out one or two so I'm ready for the WS should we be so blessed again. So excited for E-Rod and SOOOO glad he regained form after the hard hits and squeezed out a few more innings. Love when he has it rolling like that. He was painting the corners but not nibbling like he does when he's struggling. Ump grades aren't up but I think he benefited from/exploited a wider zone, but he was cooking with high heat as well. He was getting the calls so he kept working that spot!
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Post by Guidas on Oct 19, 2021 10:09:30 GMT -5
Love this team and I love the way it's playing. Just one thing though. Everything I'm reading here and elsewhere - you would think this series is 3-0 and we got Nate pitching tonight on full rest. Maybe because I go way back and don't take anything for granted in a series that has only gone 3 games, but if Pivetta is too jacked up tonight and gives it up early at Fenway (where his numbers aren't as good), and Greinke wiggles out of his 2+ innings without too much damage, this series could turn should Sale struggle tomorrow. Certainly I'd much rather be in the position the Red Sox are in than the Astros. Things are going our way right now with the Altuve errors and the Astros' pitching woes - hoping that continues and we can put this series to bed ASAP. This. Need to win tonight or it's a two out of three with Houston having home field again. Grienke is a veteran and could turn in a sterling performance. And Houston is a way better offensive team than they've shown in these last two games - so much so that many of us knew it wasn't over when it suddenly became 9-3. Don't get cocky!
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 19, 2021 10:13:43 GMT -5
Love this team and I love the way it's playing. Just one thing though. Everything I'm reading here and elsewhere - you would think this series is 3-0 and we got Nate pitching tonight on full rest. Maybe because I go way back and don't take anything for granted in a series that has only gone 3 games, but if Pivetta is too jacked up tonight and gives it up early at Fenway (where his numbers aren't as good), and Greinke wiggles out of his 2+ innings without too much damage, this series could turn should Sale struggle tomorrow. Certainly I'd much rather be in the position the Red Sox are in than the Astros. Things are going our way right now with the Altuve errors and the Astros' pitching woes - hoping that continues and we can put this series to bed ASAP. I get you completely as I have lived thru the misery from 1975 on. I was sitting in the stands in St Louis game 4, 2004 and with 2 outs in the ninth was still calculating in my head how the Sox could lose that game. The Sox need to stay focused and not get ahead of themselves for sure but the Stros staff is a mess right now. Anything can happen but it is going to be very hard for them to change the momentum of this series with what they have to go with on the mound. Hopefully Cora has them ready to go and keep the pressure on, the Stros have got to be feeling it.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 19, 2021 10:14:12 GMT -5
Globe is saying Pivetta tonight. Gotta believe Houck is standing right behind him, ready to go if necessary.
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