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Post by benzinger on Oct 19, 2021 10:14:39 GMT -5
Love this team and I love the way it's playing. Just one thing though. Everything I'm reading here and elsewhere - you would think this series is 3-0 and we got Nate pitching tonight on full rest. Maybe because I go way back and don't take anything for granted in a series that has only gone 3 games, but if Pivetta is too jacked up tonight and gives it up early at Fenway (where his numbers aren't as good), and Greinke wiggles out of his 2+ innings without too much damage, this series could turn should Sale struggle tomorrow. Certainly I'd much rather be in the position the Red Sox are in than the Astros. Things are going our way right now with the Altuve errors and the Astros' pitching woes - hoping that continues and we can put this series to bed ASAP. That Altuve error last night really turned the whole game. He’s been BRUTAL, so far. Hope it continues....
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Post by kjkramer on Oct 19, 2021 10:34:12 GMT -5
Pivetta 3-4 Houck 2-3 Whitlock 2 Eovaldi 1
Hope that is enough to bring home 9 innings and the win. Braiser or Ot on tje mix if needed
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Post by benzinger on Oct 19, 2021 10:49:48 GMT -5
Pivetta 3-4 Houck 2-3 Whitlock 2 Eovaldi 1 Hope that is enough to bring home 9 innings and the win. Braiser or Ot on tje mix if needed I’m going to be greedy and hope for 4-5 from Pivetta tonight. He should be very well rested. I hope he’s not TOO fired up. How are the Astros going to piece it together? They probably need another 5 innings from their bullpen tonight after Greinke.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 19, 2021 10:56:48 GMT -5
I'm guessing the *hope* for Houston is:
Greinke 3 (optimistic, if he's limited to 40 pitches) Javier 4 Graveman 1 Pressly 1
But if Greinke and/or Javier get knocked around god knows what they'll do. Maybe Odorizzi? Beyond that they just have guys who pitched yesterday.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 19, 2021 11:05:41 GMT -5
Fangraphs has an article breaking down and analyzing the “Stantonian blast” from the wild card game. Pretty funny.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 19, 2021 11:05:51 GMT -5
And he traded Margot instead of Devers at a time when they were viewed about the same in the minors. In hindsight, he didn’t even give up much for Sale. Moncada is a nice player, but hardly the monster that was advertised. His worst trade was giving up Travis Shaw for nothing(basically). I think we can live with that one. I don’t even blame DD for the Price contract. Ownership left him with no choice after screwing up so badly with Lester. Cherington got off to a great start, too, btw. Signing the likes of Gomes, Napoli, Victorino and Koji were all great moves for that incredible 2013 team. He just lost his way with the deals for Rusney, Hanley & Panda(among others). He ran out of steam quickly. I don't remember it the same way. Devers was heads and shoulders above Margot, it was between Devers and Moncoda. And DD said no to Devers and yes to Moncada, which obviously worked out great also. DD traded Margot instead of Devers in the Kimbrel deal and Moncada instead of Devers in the Sale deal. Devers was definitely reported as a request by CHW that DD rejected in the Sale deal, whereas I don't think he was specifically reported in the Kimbrel deal (Preller prolly also asked for Mookie, JBJ, Swihart, etc.; wound up with Logan Allen as a sweetener).
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 19, 2021 11:06:22 GMT -5
Greinke is a long shot to be any good. Obviously he has a great history and anything can happen but he has been terrible to the tune of a 11+ era to end the season. And he is not overpowering to say the least so the Sox will be sitting on offspeed stuff. I don't want to be overly confident as a Sox fan but if I am a Stros fan I am not looking forward to tonight.
Love seeing Altuves D leading to Sox runs. Time for him and the Stros to pay the price for the electronic cheating. The whole leave my shirt alone thing really grates me to think he was wearing a device.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 19, 2021 11:11:23 GMT -5
Love this team and I love the way it's playing. Just one thing though. Everything I'm reading here and elsewhere - you would think this series is 3-0 and we got Nate pitching tonight on full rest. Maybe because I go way back and don't take anything for granted in a series that has only gone 3 games, but if Pivetta is too jacked up tonight and gives it up early at Fenway (where his numbers aren't as good), and Greinke wiggles out of his 2+ innings without too much damage, this series could turn should Sale struggle tomorrow. Certainly I'd much rather be in the position the Red Sox are in than the Astros. Things are going our way right now with the Altuve errors and the Astros' pitching woes - hoping that continues and we can put this series to bed ASAP. This. Need to win tonight or it's a two out of three with Houston having home field again. Grienke is a veteran and could turn in a sterling performance. And Houston is a way better offensive team than they've shown in these last two games - so much so that many of us knew it wasn't over when it suddenly became 9-3. Don't get cocky! Greinke isn't what he was but he throws strikes and if he gets out he could be able to squeeze 3 innings out of his 40 pitches that he's expected to throw. A key guy to hit is Christian Javier. He could throw two or three innings and he could be tough. Plus you never know what you're going to get out of Pivetta. Hopefully he can start the game well and give them at least four competitive innings. He threw 140 pitches in a 4 day stretch and now has been off for about 10 days, so I don't know what his command will look like. I'm definitely not a count their chickens before they hatch kind of guy (no, really.....). 1986 taught me that lesson. All I can say is there's a path the Sox can take to finish off the Houston. The path is clearly lit and they're well on the way down the path. If they keep proceeding down the path that they're taking nothing can stop them. It's all set up for them if they continue to proceed. It's up to the Sox to stay on that path. Hope they continue forward in the direction they have been going.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 19, 2021 11:20:51 GMT -5
Going into the CS, ESPN's number-cruncher Bradford Doolittle had the Astros as 27.9% to win the WS, with the Sox at 13.6% and the Braves at 14.2%. Dodgers were 44.3%. I don't believe he's very good at his job.
Overlooked in all the prognostication ... we're the only team left with a trusted fourth starter.
Dodgers lost Kershaw which bumped Gonsolin up to 4, and they chose to use an opener for him and only had him get 5 outs as the less-than-bulk guy. They're faced with trying that again in game 5 versus Fried.
Braves had already demoted 5 starter Smyly to a bulk guy following Jesse Chavez. He's on the roster but hasn't pitched. 4 starter was Huascar Ynoa who had a 6.52 ERA in April, and he's pitched once in relief this post-season. They got through the DS by starting Morton on 3 days rest. They're going to have to cobble up a bullpen game tomorrow in game 4 against Urias.
And of course the Astros now have their 5 and 6 in their rotation (perhaps withe openers) after losing 1 and 3.
And double of course, we're the one team with a 5 starter, in Houck, who would be trusted if we did have an injury.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 19, 2021 11:37:46 GMT -5
This. Need to win tonight or it's a two out of three with Houston having home field again. Grienke is a veteran and could turn in a sterling performance. And Houston is a way better offensive team than they've shown in these last two games - so much so that many of us knew it wasn't over when it suddenly became 9-3. Don't get cocky! Greinke isn't what he was but he throws strikes and if he gets out he could be able to squeeze 3 innings out of his 40 pitches that he's expected to throw. A key guy to hit is Christian Javier. He could throw two or three innings and he could be tough. Plus you never know what you're going to get out of Pivetta. Hopefully he can start the game well and give them at least four competitive innings. He threw 140 pitches in a 4 day stretch and now has been off for about 10 days, so I don't know what his command will look like. I'm definitely not a count their chickens before they hatch kind of guy (no, really.....). 1986 taught me that lesson. All I can say is there's a path the Sox can take to finish off the Houston. The path is clearly lit and they're well on the way down the path. If they keep proceeding down the path that they're taking nothing can stop them. It's all set up for them if they continue to proceed. It's up to the Sox to stay on that path. Hope they continue forward in the direction they have been going. *IF* Greinke can only throw 40ish pitches tonight, the Sox need to be patient and make him work a bit. Don’t even let him go all the way through the order. If he settles in at all, Dusty might try and push that pitch limit and get some bonus innings from him. He needs them. The Sox can’t let that happen.
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Post by jmei on Oct 19, 2021 11:39:30 GMT -5
Stat of the day: Astros starting pitchers have allowed 14 runs (12 earned), 13 hits and 3 grand slams in 5.1 innings so far this series.
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Post by vokuhila on Oct 19, 2021 11:39:44 GMT -5
Projections are kind of silly in general and single game projections are just like rolling dice, but if you are into that sort of thing: ALCS ZIPS projectionFWIW they had Houck as the game 4 starter earlier and the RS chances were 2% higher than they are now.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 19, 2021 11:40:04 GMT -5
Devers has 6BB’s and 7K’s this postseason. Small sample, of course, but he’s been much more patient.
He also has 25 RBI’s in 23 career playoff games. He seems to savor the big moment.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 19, 2021 11:47:59 GMT -5
Projections are kind of silly in general and single game projections are just like rolling dice, but if you are into that sort of thing: ALCS ZIPS projectionFWIW they had Houck as the game 4 starter earlier and the RS chances were 2% higher than they are now. Given just the situation with each teams pitching staff I don't see how they have this as a pretty much a pickem.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 19, 2021 11:53:09 GMT -5
I’m just glad that Draftkings didn’t exist when I was in my 20’s because I would have been all over that shit(and totally broke). They make it way too easy with all those in-game prop bets.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 19, 2021 11:56:50 GMT -5
Projections are kind of silly in general and single game projections are just like rolling dice, but if you are into that sort of thing: ALCS ZIPS projectionFWIW they had Houck as the game 4 starter earlier and the RS chances were 2% higher than they are now. Given just the situation with each teams pitching staff I don't see how they have this as a pretty much a pickem. Well Pivetta is no sure thing, and also I don't think the algorithms "know" that Greinke isn't really a starter at this point.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 19, 2021 12:10:48 GMT -5
Given just the situation with each teams pitching staff I don't see how they have this as a pretty much a pickem. Well Pivetta is no sure thing, and also I don't think the algorithms "know" that Greinke isn't really a starter at this point. I just watched a break down of Pivetta on FS1 and I have to say I am even more confident now than I was before. What they said. He has become more of 2 pitch pitcher and both pitches have been elite and are working really well off each other. This plays into the strategy of getting thru a lineup twice as the experts are always talking about starters needing 3 pitches. Pivetta has certainly been a much better pitcher than Greinke over the last 2 months. Combine that with the Sox bats raking, I like our chances.
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Post by soxinsf on Oct 19, 2021 12:11:08 GMT -5
Projections are kind of silly in general and single game projections are just like rolling dice, but if you are into that sort of thing: ALCS ZIPS projectionFWIW they had Houck as the game 4 starter earlier and the RS chances were 2% higher than they are now. You gotta love having the momentum. In a way, this sudden turn to power and the ability to take games over reminds me of 2004 when we could not lose after having first dropped three straight to the MFYs. But momentum is a fleeting thing. It only takes one good pitching performance by THEM or one lousy start by US to see our momentum gone off into the ether. Are the odds on this game truly "pick 'em"? They are as far as I am concerned. At the very least, we need to win one of the next two or we go back to the Texas in a deep pickle.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 19, 2021 12:24:11 GMT -5
Devers has 6BB’s and 7K’s this postseason. Small sample, of course, but he’s been much more patient. He also has 25 RBI’s in 23 career playoff games. He seems to savor the big moment. Your daily reminder that he's still only 24 and still the second youngest guy on the team (to Darwinzon)...
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Post by incandenza on Oct 19, 2021 12:26:27 GMT -5
You gotta love having the momentum. In a way, this sudden turn to power and the ability to take games over reminds me of 2004 when we could not lose after having first dropped three straight to the MFYs. But momentum is a fleeting thing. It only takes one good pitching performance by THEM or one lousy start by US to see our momentum gone off into the ether. Are the odds on this game truly "pick 'em"? They are as far as I am concerned. At the very least, we need to win one of the next two or we go back to the Texas in a deep pickle. Totally agree with this. But another way to say this is: "momentum" is a terrible metaphor. A freight train in motion has a lot of momentum, which means precisely that it doesn't just up and reverse direction. Remember late in the season when the Yankees had all the momentum, and then the Blue Jays did? But the switch just flipped on both of them. Meanwhile, the Red Sox were getting swept by the Yankees and losing a series in Baltimore before limping into the playoffs...
This series *feels* like a runaway freight train right now. But if the Astros win tonight it's suddenly a tied series and they have home field advantage. Always walking the knife's edge in the playoffs...
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 19, 2021 12:27:49 GMT -5
I’m just glad that Draftkings didn’t exist when I was in my 20’s because I would have been all over that shit(and totally broke). They make it way too easy with all those in-game prop bets. Yes, we're all lucky for that (although, full disclosure: I live in Nevada). Fortunately for Draftkings and their ilk (and unfortunately for the rest of society), there are plenty of 20-somethings out there today and many more on the way.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 19, 2021 12:30:30 GMT -5
You gotta love having the momentum. In a way, this sudden turn to power and the ability to take games over reminds me of 2004 when we could not lose after having first dropped three straight to the MFYs. But momentum is a fleeting thing. It only takes one good pitching performance by THEM or one lousy start by US to see our momentum gone off into the ether. Are the odds on this game truly "pick 'em"? They are as far as I am concerned. At the very least, we need to win one of the next two or we go back to the Texas in a deep pickle. Totally agree with this. But another way to say this is: "momentum" is a terrible metaphor. A freight train in motion has a lot of momentum, which means precisely that it doesn't just up and reverse direction. Remember late in the season when the Yankees had all the momentum, and then the Blue Jays did? But the switch just flipped on both of them. Meanwhile, the Red Sox were getting swept by the Yankees and losing a series in Baltimore before limping into the playoffs...
This series *feels* like a runaway freight train right now. But if the Astros win tonight it's suddenly a tied series and they have home field advantage. Always walking the knife's edge in the playoffs...
Though to argue with myself a bit: what I hope is going on is that the Astros are having a serious morale problem, between their pitching debacle and the Sox' offensive explosions. With these three games in a row, maybe things are moving a little too quickly for them, the Fenway crowd gets to them, they'll start to press on both sides, and before you know it their season will be over before they even make it out of Boston. That scenario would lend a bit of credence to the momentum metaphor...
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Post by benzinger on Oct 19, 2021 12:40:23 GMT -5
I’m just glad that Draftkings didn’t exist when I was in my 20’s because I would have been all over that shit(and totally broke). They make it way too easy with all those in-game prop bets. Yes, we're all lucky for that (although, full disclosure: I live in Nevada). Fortunately for Draftkings and their ilk (and unfortunately for the rest of society), there are plenty of 20-somethings out there today and many more on the way.
Yup. Older me loves that trend and bought Draftkings stock instead. Lol.
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Post by nuttyredsox on Oct 19, 2021 12:40:46 GMT -5
We are in thanks to this singing that was called over paid, now he's a star
fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-enrique-hernandez-went-from-utility-infielder-to-the-hottest-hitter-in-the-playoffs/?addata=espn:frontpage
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0ap0
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Post by 0ap0 on Oct 19, 2021 12:46:10 GMT -5
We are in thanks to this singing that was called over paid, now he's a star fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-enrique-hernandez-went-from-utility-infielder-to-the-hottest-hitter-in-the-playoffs/?addata=espn:frontpage "Who the F's Enrique Hernandez? Oh, right." --Me, every damn time.
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