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What 2021-22 Free Agents Do You Want
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 27, 2021 15:11:54 GMT -5
I don't get the Hosmer love, even for prospects. $18M AAV for four more years of a player in rapid decline is just too much resource allocation for lottery tickets. And maybe it's me, but I can't see San Diego giving up top shelf guys like Capusano, Hassell, etc. for a salary dump. Hosmer makes ZERO sense under ANY scenario! I agree. The Sox are real close to having all their dead money off the books once price contract is up. Taking Hosmer on for prospects is just asking for more dead money. Maybe if the Padres ate a significant portion and also gave a top level prospect but paying down the contract would defeat the purpose for them.
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Post by jdb on Oct 27, 2021 15:23:18 GMT -5
I don’t think we sign a guy who has a QO attached. I’m guessing Verlander, Thor and Taylor get one and possibly Gray since they didn’t trade him last July.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 27, 2021 15:32:22 GMT -5
Unless Semien turns out to be a below-average hitter, as he has been in all but two of his major league seasons. And his wOBA was 40 points above his xwOBA this season. He's already 31 and is really not a guy I would want to pay big money for well into his 30s. I agree with this. Semien seems like a classic "career year" guy Age 31and coming off a career year is the type of player Bloom trades for prospects NOT signs to big money!!
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 27, 2021 15:35:23 GMT -5
A few tires I’d kick: Matz Piñeda Graveman Verlander Jed Lowrie Stroman Obviously I mean check price and length demands, see if anyone is plausible in the big picture. I recognize there is a big range there — but these seem like guys worth making real contact with. I've got Matz on my list as well but that's probably more because we have the same last name and being not a very common name it's probably the only shot I have of ever seeing a Matz on the Red sox. I guess there's the chance my young nephews develop a wicked curve ball though!
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 27, 2021 15:44:58 GMT -5
A few tires I’d kick: Matz Piñeda Graveman Verlander Jed Lowrie Stroman Obviously I mean check price and length demands, see if anyone is plausible in the big picture. I recognize there is a big range there — but these seem like guys worth making real contact with. Lowrie’s tire is flat. He can not play on the East Coast. The Mets paid him $20 million to go 0/7. He came up with Boston (if memory serves me) in 2008 and missed half the year... he can only play healthy in Texas and California.... Stroman is intriguing though
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Post by taiwansox on Oct 27, 2021 15:47:04 GMT -5
A few tires I’d kick: Matz Piñeda Graveman Verlander Jed Lowrie Stroman Obviously I mean check price and length demands, see if anyone is plausible in the big picture. I recognize there is a big range there — but these seem like guys worth making real contact with. Lowrie’s tire is flat. He can not play on the East Coast. The Mets paid him $20 million to go 0/7. He came up with Boston (if memory serves me) in 2008 and missed half the year... he can only play healthy in Texas and California.... Stroman is intriguing though I almost think they’re targeting Stroman because of the talk around reshuffling our infield defense. If we leave the infield defense as is, I don’t think Stroman would be a good get, he’d get BABIP’d to death if our defense is anything like last year’s.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 27, 2021 15:48:28 GMT -5
I don’t think we sign a guy who has a QO attached. I’m guessing Verlander, Thor and Taylor get one and possibly Gray since they didn’t trade him last July. They should get rid of the draft pick compensation from the signing team in the new CBA. Sure the team losing the player gets compensation like in the NFL but the rule as written has had too much of a negative impact coming from a team. It should just be tacked on to the round the guy qualifies at, it should vary like in the NFL.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 27, 2021 15:52:52 GMT -5
I don’t think we sign a guy who has a QO attached. I’m guessing Verlander, Thor and Taylor get one and possibly Gray since they didn’t trade him last July. They should get rid of the draft pick compensation from the signing team in the new CBA. Sure the team losing the player gets compensation like in the NFL but the rule as written has had too much of a negative impact coming from a team. It should just be tacked on to the round the guy qualifies at, it should vary like in the NFL. Yep I agree. It does nothing to entice cheap teams to keep their players it just penalizes big market teams from signing players.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 27, 2021 16:06:09 GMT -5
I don’t think we sign a guy who has a QO attached. I’m guessing Verlander, Thor and Taylor get one and possibly Gray since they didn’t trade him last July. They should get rid of the draft pick compensation from the signing team in the new CBA. Sure the team losing the player gets compensation like in the NFL but the rule as written has had too much of a negative impact coming from a team. It should just be tacked on to the round the guy qualifies at, it should vary like in the NFL. I agree. I hate the idea of rewarding the team that let a top FA go, or penalizing a team that signed one. There's already a penalty in place. It's called "the luxury tax" (although I would love to see that and competitive balance payments eliminated). This seems like a grotesque sort of double-taxation that openly discourages paying top-tier free agent players. If owners want to pay players top dollar when players have earned that right, those owners and their teams shouldn't be discouraged. Period.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 27, 2021 16:14:25 GMT -5
I'm all for taking on Eric Hosmer contract if the return is huge! I'm always down for buying prospects. He wouldn't be a bad platoon partner for Dalbec given his strength is hitting RHP. He's the opposite of Myers in that his AAV would be higher than his salary the last three years. Yet I'm talking Louis Campusano, another good type prospect and some flyers on Morejon and Baez coming off TJ surgery. They likely laugh at that, yet it has to be crazy big for four years of 18 million AAV on our books. I don't get the Hosmer love, even for prospects. $18M AAV for four more years of a player in rapid decline is just too much resource allocation for lottery tickets. And maybe it's me, but I can't see San Diego giving up top shelf guys like Capusano, Hassell, etc. for a salary dump. Typically all prospects are lottery tickets right? If they don't want to give up a big package you move on. I expect the luxury tax line to greatly increase making those numbers not much to worry about, the Padres have cash issues not AAV issues. How many can and are willing to take on that contract? That team has made crazy all in moves for years. They either continue or go into sell off mode. I can actually see them making a stupid trade so they go spend more money. Morejon and Baez are former top 100 guys that had TJ, they could be some really nice bullpen arms at minimum. I'm not going to say they can become Whitlock, yet they have that type of upside.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 27, 2021 16:14:46 GMT -5
I've seen many posts about money coming off the books after next season. Yes, Price's money comes off the books. JD's will come off if he doesn't opt out this offseason, and Vazquez & Plawecki will come off the books as well. The other "free money" belongs to Xander, Eovaldi, and Kiké. Those three players provide surplus value, and they'll either be due raises or the Red Sox will have to replace their production, and good luck doing it at a lower cost. Devers will be a year away from free agency, and other players will get raises through arbitration. The team will have a lot of flexibility, but outside of Price's $16m it's not like most of the money coming off is dead weight, quite the opposite. If they actually lose all those guys, they'll need to replace this season's ace, SS, CF, DH, and catching tandem (plus this year's FA's this offseason) with that money.
As for this offseason, I admittedly don't follow the payroll closely, but if JD opts in and the other team options are declined as expected, I think they have ~$178m committed against the CBT if the arbitration estimates are accurate (including dead money, 40 man, medical/benefits, etc.). My math may be off, and they can make moves to clear some of that salary, but I think it's close to that figure right now. That's without Erod, Schwarber, and other pieces, along with the current depth issues that caused problems this postseason. Who knows what the next CBA looks like, and maybe JD opts out or gets dealt (or other salaries are moved), but even if the Red Sox go over the tax and increase their payroll (as they should) I think some of you are overestimating how much they have to spend on next year's team at this point.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 27, 2021 16:24:21 GMT -5
I've seen many posts about money coming off the books after next season. Yes, Price's money comes off the books. JD's will come off if he doesn't opt out this offseason, and Vazquez & Plawecki will come off the books as well. The other "free money" belongs to Xander, Eovaldi, and Kiké. Those three players provide surplus value, and they'll either be due raises or the Red Sox will have to replace their production, and good luck doing it at a lower cost. Devers will be a year away from free agency, and other players will get raises through arbitration. The team will have a lot of flexibility, but outside of Price's $16m it's not like most of the money coming off is dead weight, quite the opposite. If they actually lose all those guys, they'll need to replace this season's ace, SS, CF, DH, and catching tandem (plus this year's FA's this offseason) with that money. As for this offseason, I admittedly don't follow the payroll closely, but if JD opts in and the other team options are declined as expected, I think they have ~$178m committed against the CBT if the arbitration estimates are accurate (including dead money, 40 man, medical/benefits, etc.). My math may be off, and they can make moves to clear some of that salary, but I think it's close to that figure right now. That's without Erod, Schwarber, and other pieces, along with the current depth issues that caused problems this postseason. Who knows what the next CBA looks like, and maybe JD opts out or gets dealt (or other salaries are moved), but even if the Red Sox go over the tax and increase their payroll (as they should) I think some of you are overestimating how much they have to spend on next year's team at this point. I think a Devers extension (possibly announced after the season starts) + re-signing Rodriguez (or another starter at that tier) + one other ~$16-22 million/year free agent is what I would expect, beyond small moves. Over or under on that?
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 27, 2021 18:12:02 GMT -5
I think a Devers extension (possibly announced after the season starts) + re-signing Rodriguez (or another starter at that tier) + one other ~$16-22 million/year free agent is what I would expect, beyond small moves. Over or under on that? This is in line with what I'm expecting as well, but I think many here would be disappointed if that's the case. If Erod or a replacement gets $16-22m AAV and they sign a second FA at the same level, that's $210m to $222m committed before addressing the bullpen and filling out the bench. If the second big acquisition is a bat, it's very possible Renfroe or JD would be traded, which would make filling out the roster easier. If I'm guessing the market for FA starting pitching, I think Erod will be the best value in his tier and hope he's retained. Or, maybe Bloom decides he doesn't want to add a second significant contract. He could add a couple bats for quality depth (in the $4m-10m AAV range) to push/platoon with Arroyo/Dalbec/Renfroe for playing time, and add 2-3 arms in that contract tier as well - a "spread the wealth" approach. The money can add up quickly with that approach as well. I'm hoping he decides to retool the bullpen on the cheap and works some magic there.
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Post by baseball3 on Oct 27, 2021 19:26:19 GMT -5
The Red Sox traded for Chris Sale for prospects and they weren't Wander Franco. It was just a idea and you're losing your mind over it because you don't like the idea. Nobody’s losing their mind. But crazy ideas that ignore facts are going to be called out. What facts? That Sale ABSOLUTELY won't be traded? That isn't a fact. He can be with his permission as I didn't take into account his service time in 2020, thus making him 10/5 no trade rights player. Here are the only facts this off-season so far- -Xander and Sale are 10/5 no trade protection guys, that will be hard to trade. -JDM has roughly a week to opt in to his player contract. -The Sox have roughly 2 weeks to offer Eduardo Rodriguez and JDM the QO. -Ottavino and Rodriguez are free agents. -The new CBA is going to affect free agency a ton, good or bad. Other than that. This is a opinion thread. Crazy ideas should be welcomed to expand on what the front office could do.
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Post by baseball3 on Oct 27, 2021 19:33:11 GMT -5
I'm all for taking on Eric Hosmer contract if the return is huge! I'm always down for buying prospects. He wouldn't be a bad platoon partner for Dalbec given his strength is hitting RHP. He's the opposite of Myers in that his AAV would be higher than his salary the last three years. Yet I'm talking Louis Campusano, another good type prospect and some flyers on Morejon and Baez coming off TJ surgery. They likely laugh at that, yet it has to be crazy big for four years of 18 million AAV on our books. Exactly. Campusano. Gore. The Padres system still has a ton of impact in it. Maybe Eovaldi (not Sale) could be a guy they take too, to lessen the burden of payroll and to increase the return. Could open up money for Eduardo extention. I think outside of Devers extension. This idea is the could be the best play the Sox could make.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Oct 27, 2021 21:05:22 GMT -5
Nobody’s losing their mind. But crazy ideas that ignore facts are going to be called out. What facts? That Sale ABSOLUTELY won't be traded? That isn't a fact. He can be with his permission as I didn't take into account his service time in 2020, thus making him 10/5 no trade rights player. Here are the only facts this off-season so far- -Xander and Sale are 10/5 no trade protection guys, that will be hard to trade. -JDM has roughly a week to opt in to his player contract. -The Sox have roughly 2 weeks to offer Eduardo Rodriguez and JDM the QO. -Ottavino and Rodriguez are free agents. -The new CBA is going to affect free agency a ton, good or bad. Other than that. This is a opinion thread. Crazy ideas should be welcomed to expand on what the front office could do. Sorry not to be more specific. The facts that you were ignoring had been pointed out by other posters, so I thought you knew what I meant. Your idea that "Crazy ideas should be welcomed" is... I don't even know what the right word for it would be.
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Post by baseball3 on Oct 27, 2021 22:26:28 GMT -5
What facts? That Sale ABSOLUTELY won't be traded? That isn't a fact. He can be with his permission as I didn't take into account his service time in 2020, thus making him 10/5 no trade rights player. Here are the only facts this off-season so far- -Xander and Sale are 10/5 no trade protection guys, that will be hard to trade. -JDM has roughly a week to opt in to his player contract. -The Sox have roughly 2 weeks to offer Eduardo Rodriguez and JDM the QO. -Ottavino and Rodriguez are free agents. -The new CBA is going to affect free agency a ton, good or bad. Other than that. This is a opinion thread. Crazy ideas should be welcomed to expand on what the front office could do. Sorry not to be more specific. The facts that you were ignoring had been pointed out by other posters, so I thought you knew what I meant. Your idea that "Crazy ideas should be welcomed" is... I don't even know what the right word for it would be. I didn't ignore any facts. Agreed with Champs about Sale being a no trade guy. The rest was opinions. This should be a opinion thread unless Mods say different. Trade ideas stem from previous deadlines all the time. Bloom talked about how Friedman would text him about Mookie Betts the previous deadline until the following off-season when the trade finally happened. The Hosmer rumors aren't going away. Padres made it very known this past deadline they want out of his contract.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 27, 2021 23:42:59 GMT -5
I'm all for taking on Eric Hosmer contract if the return is huge! I'm always down for buying prospects. He wouldn't be a bad platoon partner for Dalbec given his strength is hitting RHP. He's the opposite of Myers in that his AAV would be higher than his salary the last three years. Yet I'm talking Louis Campusano, another good type prospect and some flyers on Morejon and Baez coming off TJ surgery. They likely laugh at that, yet it has to be crazy big for four years of 18 million AAV on our books. Exactly. Campusano. Gore. The Padres system still has a ton of impact in it. Maybe Eovaldi (not Sale) could be a guy they take too, to lessen the burden of payroll and to increase the return. Could open up money for Eduardo extention. I think outside of Devers extension. This idea is the could be the best play the Sox could make. Adding Eovaldi to get Gore would be a very Tampa Bay like move.
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Post by manfred on Oct 27, 2021 23:55:39 GMT -5
Wait… why would the Sox want $60 million of Hosmer? Sure, they can eat $13 million a year but…. Why?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 28, 2021 1:08:00 GMT -5
I don’t think we sign a guy who has a QO attached. I’m guessing Verlander, Thor and Taylor get one and possibly Gray since they didn’t trade him last July. All the big-name SS (plus Semien) and most of the good pitchers will have them.
Some guys who can't have a QO attached:
Starling Marte Kris Bryant Max Scherzer Kevin Gausman
I'd take any or all of those.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 28, 2021 1:11:37 GMT -5
Wait… why would the Sox want $60 million of Hosmer? Sure, they can eat $13 million a year but…. Why? Kind of a Rip Van Winkle take -- from people who just woke up from October 2020 and don't yet know that their window of contention was suddenly flung open or that Sale seems to be well down the road to full recovery.
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Post by baseball3 on Oct 28, 2021 2:22:48 GMT -5
Wait… why would the Sox want $60 million of Hosmer? Sure, they can eat $13 million a year but…. Why? Kind of a Rip Van Winkle take -- from people who just woke up from October 2020 and don't yet know that their window of contention was suddenly flung open or that Sale seems to be well down the road to full recovery. Bloom has stated that the long term goal is to stay a contender every year. A team that wins sustainably (Dodgers). Which means making futuristic moves along with contending moves. This falls with the latter. I don't think the Sox are a world series threat yet. My opinion, but they overachieved (in a positive way) but they're not there yet. I think their window comes when the next wave of prospects arives. Cassas. Downs. Mata etc. This kind of trade adds to that. Stick a gun to my head and I'd tell you that if the Blue Jay's had Berrios for a full season (like they will next year), that I'd think they're better than both the Yankees and Sox in 2021. Tampa Bay now has Franco for a full year now too. The Sox need to stay young with good young talent that will keep coming up to compete against the Jay's and Ray's the next few years. No one wants Hosmer. The prospects would be nice. With Dalbec at first, the Sox kind of have a fit for him as UMass pointed out. I'll see myself out for the rest of this idea. Explained it best I could. Add one more relevant point- John Henry once eerily enough paid over 60 million for only one prospect in Moncada. So he has shown a willingness to do this kind of move before.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 28, 2021 6:17:49 GMT -5
Kind of a Rip Van Winkle take -- from people who just woke up from October 2020 and don't yet know that their window of contention was suddenly flung open or that Sale seems to be well down the road to full recovery. Bloom has stated that the long term goal is to stay a contender every year. A team that wins sustainably (Dodgers). Which means making futuristic moves along with contending moves. This falls with the latter. I don't think the Sox are a world series threat yet. My opinion, but they overachieved (in a positive way) but they're not there yet. I think their window comes when the next wave of prospects arives. Cassas. Downs. Mata etc. This kind of trade adds to that. Stick a gun to my head and I'd tell you that if the Blue Jay's had Berrios for a full season (like they will next year), that I'd think they're better than both the Yankees and Sox in 2021. Tampa Bay now has Franco for a full year now too. The Sox need to stay young with good young talent that will keep coming up to compete against the Jay's and Ray's the next few years. No one wants Hosmer. The prospects would be nice. With Dalbec at first, the Sox kind of have a fit for him as UMass pointed out. I'll see myself out for the rest of this idea. Explained it best I could. Add one more relevant point- John Henry once eerily enough paid over 60 million for only one prospect in Moncada. So he has shown a willingness to do this kind of move before. Okay but the jays didn't have berrios for a full year and are likely to lose some combo of Robbie Ray, semien and Matz. So I'd say they may be due for some regression. Meanwhile the sox have a full season of sale and some money to hopefully add better depth than guys like richards, perez, Santana and marwin. Hosmer is just a bad player making too much money for too many years. Unless they're getting back Abrams and Hassel in the deal (which they wouldn't) no thank you on Hosmer. Gore has lost a lot of shine since he can't command the ball to save his life the last 2 years. Edit: even if the jays bring all 3 back they all pretty much had career years that I don't see them all duplicating and possibly none of them will.
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Post by baseball3 on Oct 28, 2021 7:15:36 GMT -5
The Sox are definitely close to the Jay's, maybe equal or better. Tough to judge. Last year a game apart! The Devers versus Vlad Jr bat is going to be must watch for the next 5 years. It'll be fun watching the Sox battle the Jay's near term regardless. They need more pitching. We need more hitting (maybe too many strikeouts in this lineup, Renfroe, Dalbec, Schwarber didn't help that department). So both teams really good but imperfect.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 28, 2021 7:29:24 GMT -5
Wait… why would the Sox want $60 million of Hosmer? Sure, they can eat $13 million a year but…. Why? The obvious and only reason would be to pry some good prospects from SD. It is just a way to buy prospects. Maybe if the Sox where in rebuild mode it could make sense. But they are not so it is a mute point.
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