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Post by Deleted on Mar 27, 2022 15:21:36 GMT -5
This is starting to become a more urgent issue than the single page of comments might indicate. Brasier's velo is down and neither Diekman, Darwinzon, nor Sawamura can find the plate. Opportunities for Bazardo, Robles, Garza, and Feliz, who has had a solid spring thus far. Bracho, Cole, Danish, Gillies, Feltman, Kelly, Schrieber... anyone want to step up and grab a job by the throat? Sawamura, Darwinzon, and Brazier all have options left, and thus far it looks like they are needed. (Not saying they will all be sent down, but they sure have not pitched well yet).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 27, 2022 15:38:22 GMT -5
I suspect the bullpen will be the biggest issue on this team. From closer to setup role to everything in between is quite questionable.
They need Barnes to right himself but who knows if he can over the entirety of the season. And the setup crew is questionable as well.
They probably will be stuck using Whitlock, a guy who has rarely pitched on back to back days, to pitch high leverage when they ought to be giving him a chance to start.
I'm not sure how Cora establishes an effective hierarchy in that pen.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Mar 27, 2022 15:44:34 GMT -5
I am not confident in this bullpen. Going into last year, I thought at least Ottavino to Barnes would be solid (it wasn’t great). This year, going into the season I’m less confident. I think they *have* to keep Whitlock in the pen, much as I want to see him start. I don’t trust anyone else. I think Whitlock and Hill are going to piggyback to start the season and that Whitlock will be available at least one day between those games. Maybe Hill will also be available for an inning in between?
If those two can give you 3-4 innings each one day, plus 1-2 innings each on another day, that's two days out of five that the rest of the bullpen won't be taxed as much.
If you keep Whitlock as a dedicated RP, how many innings/week can he go? More than 4-6? I'd rather guarantee that he gets the work outlined above and that it's on a schedule (like he was most of last season) than have him up and down every day as a full-time RP.
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Post by jbsox on Mar 27, 2022 15:46:30 GMT -5
This is starting to become a more urgent issue than the single page of comments might indicate. Brasier's velo is down and neither Diekman, Darwinzon, nor Sawamura can find the plate. Opportunities for Bazardo, Robles, Garza, and Feliz, who has had a solid spring thus far. Bracho, Cole, Danish, Gillies, Feltman, Kelly, Schrieber... anyone want to step up and grab a job by the throat? I think it’s too early to look at performance in an abbreviated Spring Training. I think Cora will allow the guys with at least a little bit of track record to work things out, and to preserve as much depth as possible to start the season so guys on the 40 man without options are probably more safe. Saying that I think Braiser is key is locking down the late inning Whitlock/Ottovino role of last year to go along with Barnes on the right side. Robles could be a dark horse at some point if he can duplicate what he did for us last season. on the left side we really only had Taylor to trust last year in the late innings. I’m hopeful one of Diekman, Strahm, Davis, and D Hernandez can break through to be another trusted late inning guy. My dark horse is D Hernandez can turn things around to be a real weapon in the bullpen.
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Post by Addam603 on Apr 2, 2022 15:36:58 GMT -5
If Barnes is second half Barnes and not the first half all star, then I think you have to keep Whitlock in the pen so you actually have a closer.
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 2, 2022 15:43:33 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 2, 2022 15:47:56 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 2, 2022 16:34:05 GMT -5
Bazardo and Darwinzon were optioned I guess that means two of Crawford, Garza and Robles made it. I'd guess Robles and Crawford. Robles because as long as they can get him some work next week they've indicated that he breaks with the team. The Sox need multi-inning relief and Crawford certainly fits the bill. If the Sox do pick up a RH hitting OF I guess Garza will be DFAed.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 2, 2022 16:51:27 GMT -5
Chris et all on Twitter are trying to nail it down, but it seems that Garza has been overlooked.
They have Pitchers (5 spots): Crawford, Danish, Robles Schreiber, Valdez, Davis, Sawamura. Add Garza.
Crawford, Davis, Valdez, Sawamura, and Garza are all on the 40-man, so that's the best guess. Robles was not sent down like Holland, so he has a chance if he can get ready in time, with Garza being the trim. Danish and Schreiber would seem to be sticking around as the best NRI's in case there are further injuries.
They still need to DFA someone to make room for Shaw (also not sent down, so presumably being added) and maybe for Robles, and for Refsnyder, Cordero, or a player acquired. Garza and Renaldo seem like the only fungible guys. Arauz as a bench piece seems of little use.
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 2, 2022 18:42:12 GMT -5
Holland is headed to Worcester according to ace reporter Will Middlebrooks
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 4, 2022 8:36:55 GMT -5
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 4, 2022 8:56:00 GMT -5
Kutter is getting a lot of love this spring. Striking Whitlock gold two years in a row would be colossal.
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thelpc
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Post by thelpc on Apr 4, 2022 10:10:51 GMT -5
Kutter is getting a lot of love this spring. Striking Whitlock gold two years in a row would be colossal. Personally I’m hoping this year’s “Whitlock gold” will be Frank German. Would be great to have robbed the Yankees of two promising young arms in the same offseason
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Post by incandenza on Apr 4, 2022 10:21:28 GMT -5
Fangraphs projects the bullpen to be solidly above average:
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 4, 2022 12:27:11 GMT -5
Since it's going to be Hill over Whitlock for starter then I hope it's Whitlock over Barnes for closer.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 4, 2022 15:01:46 GMT -5
Chris et all on Twitter are trying to nail it down, but it seems that Garza has been overlooked. They have Pitchers (5 spots): Crawford, Danish, Robles Schreiber, Valdez, Davis, Sawamura. Add Garza. Crawford, Davis, Valdez, Sawamura, and Garza are all on the 40-man, so that's the best guess. Robles was not sent down like Holland, so he has a chance if he can get ready in time, with Garza being the trim. Danish and Schreiber would seem to be sticking around as the best NRI's in case there are further injuries. They still need to DFA someone to make room for Shaw (also not sent down, so presumably being added) and maybe for Robles, and for Refsnyder, Cordero, or a player acquired. Garza and Renaldo seem like the only fungible guys. Arauz as a bench piece seems of little use.
Garza was in minor league camp while we were there, which is why I didn't include him. Seems really clear he's going to be DFA this week unless they make one or more trades that clear 40-man space. They need 40-man spots for Shaw and whichever one of Robles, Schreiber, or Danish makes the team.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Apr 4, 2022 15:09:16 GMT -5
Since it's going to be Hill over Whitlock for starter then I hope it's Whitlock over Barnes for closer. Looks like it might be Hill and Whitlock piggybacking, with the latter also backing up Eovaldi or Pivetta between Hill's starts. Doesn't mean Whitlock can't finish those games and get saves but I don't know if they'll pitch him more than twice per turn.
I'll be surprised if they make him a classic closer who often pitches in back-to-back games.
Weather in the Bronx might affect things for the first run through the rotation and they've discussed the possibility of a six-man rotation early.
EDIT: Based on AC's comments, it sounds like Crawford might be used the same way, 2-3 IP twice per turn. It makes sense but it's not something we've seen on a regular basis, especially not with two guys in that role. Given that game situations will vary, you wouldn't expect them to back up the same two starters every time but maybe each guy covers one guy every turn (e.g. Whitlock after Hill, Crawford after Wacha) and then let situations dictate when they pitch again between those starts.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Apr 4, 2022 23:06:59 GMT -5
One huge question - can Barnes find his missing velocity - and get back to working fast - and regain his confidence?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Apr 4, 2022 23:15:39 GMT -5
One huge question - can Barnes find his missing velocity - and get back to working fast - and regain his confidence? Interesting story from Bradfo during today's radio broadcast against the Twins (not sure if it's been mentioned in these pages yet):
Mrs. Matt Barnes sent her husband a video of their dog running around in their house. Apparently, she took the video during the game while Barnes was pitching and he could see himself pitching on the TV in the background of the video. He watched the video several times, focusing on himself pitching, and spotted a mechanical issue that he hadn't noticed before. This is apparently the mechanical issue that AC mentioned recently that Barnes is now working on to try to recover his lost velo.
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Post by keninten on Apr 4, 2022 23:49:33 GMT -5
I`ll give everyone a chance to laugh me off the board. Chris Sale will be the closer by the end of the year.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 4, 2022 23:53:54 GMT -5
I moved some Trevor Story discussion to that thread. If you want to discuss a subject and there isn't a thread on it, feel free to start one, don't just post it in an off-topic thread. So now where should I look for Eric's summary of 3 months' worth of thinking? I couldn't remember where I put it myself and just spent too much time hunting it down to see what I wrote about Darwinzon ... turns out it's in the "Do You Want Story?" thread, which was of course rendered pointless to check out within the next 24 hours. What I actually said there: "It seems to me that Dawinzon is going back to AAA until he gets his act together." The long, disappeared version explained that this was clear from their signing two lefty relievers and his having an option.
It also had them stretching him out as a long man and pitching on a regular turn, as the best way for him to get his act together. (I actually looked at his pitch mix to see if they were maybe thinking of him as a starter again, but that clearly wasn't their intent.) That's exactly what they're doing, and you have to think that Whitlock's success in that role was a factor.
His upside in that role goes without saying.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 23, 2022 16:20:44 GMT -5
Numbers so far, unfair to Diekman after his first genuinely bad outing. xERA is Statcast's expected ERA (based on xwOBA). WPrt is Win Probability Added Rate, which is WPA adjusted for leverage, per 60 IP. Order is rough, essentially where guys rank in the 2 metrics.
Name xERA WPrt Hansel Robles 1.74 4.35 Matt Strahm 1.37 3.32 Matt Barnes 2.51 2.79 Phillips Valdez 2.09 2.55 Garre. Whitlock 1.82 2.20 Tyler Danish 0.45 0.00 Jake Diekman 2.91 1.01 Austin Davis 5.50 1.47 Hirok. Sawamura 4.19 -0.51
Kutter Crawford 8.30 -5.58 Ryan Brasier 9.77 -5.81 Brasier's not getting any better; his last 2 outings were his second and third worst. He's been between 93.9 and 94.1 on the FB in every game.He averaged 95.1 last year. I have to think that he's lost movement, too.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 27, 2022 11:12:33 GMT -5
Bullpen Win Probability Added per 162 games, by acting managers:
+16.06 Alex Cora (4th in MLB)
-42.12 Will Venable (last by a huge margin, obviously)
Some of this is randomness / regression to the mean.
A good deal is the lack of availability of the team's best reliever, who has been moved into the rotation because one of the starters has chosen to be unavailible for the current series.
But some of this has to be the manager, right?
Raw numbers:
+1.19 in 12 G - 1.56 in 6 games
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 27, 2022 11:21:18 GMT -5
Bullpen Win Probability Added per 162 games, by acting managers: +16.06 Alex Cora (4th in MLB) -42.12 Will Venable (last by a huge margin, obviously) Some of this is randomness / regression to the mean. A good deal is the lack of availability of the team's best reliever, who has been moved into the rotation because one of the starters has chosen to be unavailible for the current series.
But some of this has to be the manager, right? Raw numbers: +1.19 in 12 G - 1.56 in 6 games Yeah, I don’t think he was handed a great set of cards, but Venable has looked like one of the worst managers I’ve ever seen in is SSS.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 29, 2022 23:19:23 GMT -5
Bullpen Win Probability Added per 162 games, by acting managers: +16.06 Alex Cora (4th in MLB) -42.12 Will Venable (last by a huge margin, obviously) Updated with Cora's last three games:
+19.33 Cora -42.12 Venable
That came from 0.60 bullpen WPA in 3 games, which is 32.4 per season.
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