|
Post by incandenza on Nov 26, 2021 20:41:34 GMT -5
If you listen to what Bloom says you come away with the sense that it makes more sense to think about the pitching staff in terms of the question "How are we going to put together 1400 innings?" rather than "How are we going to put together 5 starters and 8 relievers?"
Last season their IP leaders were:
Eovaldi - 182 Rodriguez - 158 Pivetta - 155 Richards - 137 Perez - 114 Whitlock - 73 Houck - 69
Sale threw 42. So between him, Whitlock, and Houck you might hope to get another 200 IP. That could indeed replace Rodriguez and then some, in theory, and Wacha could replace some of those Richards/Perez innings. But it's very unlikely everyone's going to be healthy all season, and all in all this looks like just treading water to me, and would lean to an uncomfortable degree on Eovaldi repeating his career year performance. I think they really need another solid 150 IP pitcher; maybe Stroman, maybe a trade target...
I'd throw in seabold, groome, wincowski, maybe Bello to that argument as well. But that's still too many questions for me to really feel comfortable with. I do think they need a guy like stroman maybe gray or a trade as well as another one year deal type of guy like rich hill or Pineda. I'll wait to really have much feelings on the wacha move until we see what other moves Bloom has up his sleeves. Yeah, I don't think we can count on any of those guys (+ Crawford) for 2022. Maybe 2023, but I think any significant contributions from them next season will arrive through the pleasant surprises department.
|
|
|
Post by rasimon on Nov 26, 2021 20:45:49 GMT -5
After reading this thread I assumed I would hate this signing, but looking at his stat history I actually kind of like it. Wacha had a solid to good Fip and xFip from 2013 through 2018. During this period his ERA was good every year except 2016. In 2019 all three stats crapped out. 2020 he only pitched 34 innings, his xFip and Fip improved but his ERA got even worse (small sample variability?) In 2020 his xFip was back to its old levels, Fip was a bit higher than old levels but his ERA was still over 5. Its not unreasonable to predict his ERA will come back in line with his xFip and Fip which would put it a higher than his old levels but still ok. Thats what Steamer seems to be predicting xFip/ Fip / ERA of 4.22 / 4.40 / 4.43. Thats not great but its not bad assuming the $ is low. And his name sounds like the sound Pacman makes. www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-wacha/14078/stats?position=P
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Nov 26, 2021 20:46:34 GMT -5
I'd throw in seabold, groome, wincowski, maybe Bello to that argument as well. But that's still too many questions for me to really feel comfortable with. I do think they need a guy like stroman maybe gray or a trade as well as another one year deal type of guy like rich hill or Pineda. I'll wait to really have much feelings on the wacha move until we see what other moves Bloom has up his sleeves. Yeah, I don't think we can count on any of those guys (+ Crawford) for 2022. Maybe 2023, but I think any significant contributions from them next season will arrive through the pleasant surprises department. Certainly not early in the season but by July or so I don't think it's unreasonable to expect at least one of them to be able to give innings comparable to what perez and Richards was giving them last year not that it's really a high bar to reach. Not to mention who knows what arms might be available at the deadline. Maybe Bloom would be more likely to go out and get a difference maker pitcher at the deadline if the depth in the farms he's seemingly been building continues to grow.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Nov 26, 2021 21:30:50 GMT -5
They had Perez and Richards last year, a lefty and a righty, so I think that Wacha and perhaps Hill, who is better than Wacha and certainly would be a better bullpen lefty than Perez was, wou look d fit. And they'd still need to replace E-Rod with a legit 2 or 3 starter. I'd want that depth in case of injuries plus I like easing Houck and Whitlock into the rotation. Agree! Watchable can be a multi-inning reliever, spot starter, depth. He still throws hard at an average 94 mph, and Bloom’s staff is pretty good with changing pitch mixes to get better results (ie Pivetta). IMO it is a good signing assuming Bloom gets a rotation piece (hopefully a #2 or ). Possible Freudian slip calling Wacha watchable? Haha. Let's hope he's watchable anyway.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Nov 26, 2021 22:59:25 GMT -5
Possible Freudian slip calling Wacha watchable? Haha. Let's hope he's watchable anyway. Apple auto correct....I hate it and going to disable it... Haha I was assuming that was the case. It's not just Apple with bad autocorrect. My Droid makes some absurd autocorrects as well. Whether wacha turns out any good or not, at least he got the offseason going a little bit and gives us something to talk about so I'm happy for that.
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Nov 26, 2021 23:10:07 GMT -5
Another question to ask. If Wacha was so improved why did the Rays bypass him as a starting option on Game 4 of the ALDS and elect to do a bullpen by committee with McHugh starting? I get that he wasn't probably stretched out enough to go 5 innings, but I would think they would have trusted him more? Probably because McClanahan was outstanding in Game 1 and it was an elimination game for them. McHugh was also awesome for them all year.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 26, 2021 23:16:58 GMT -5
Another question to ask. If Wacha was so improved why did the Rays bypass him as a starting option on Game 4 of the ALDS and elect to do a bullpen by committee with McHugh starting? I get that he wasn't probably stretched out enough to go 5 innings, but I would think they would have trusted him more? Probably because McClanahan was outstanding in Game 1 and it was an elimination game for them. That's one answer although bringing him back on short rest certainly backfired. He would have been on normal rest for a Game 5. But the bigger answer is that the Sox whacked Wacha around for 6 runs in 2.2 IP. This of course happened after Wacha supposedly found himself. I'm doubtful that the old Wacha is back. Unless this new baseball with a better grip is a deader ball, Wacha will continue to watch HRs fly out of the park. At Fenway that probably means shots off the wall. Really not enthused. Really hoped the Richards/Perez spots would be upgrades, but Wacha might be worse. Honestly I was hoping for Kluber and Hill in place of Richards and Perez. Wacha wasn't on my radar.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 26, 2021 23:22:57 GMT -5
I'm about $3M, +/-, enthused.
|
|
|
Post by baseball3 on Nov 27, 2021 0:42:20 GMT -5
I mean… I know this is the wrong crew to say this to, but I just have a far harder time rooting for a journeyman pitcher on a 1-year contract than I would for ERod. I know, the money is totally different, but… I can’t warm to the Renfroes, Richards, Wachas of the world. When I was young, I worked in a big chain bookstore. Our general manager told me on the first day that we don’t sell books, we sell barcodes. This iteration of the Sox seem to see players as barcodes. Since players are allowed to leave franchises and maximise their pay, there is more frequent movement and it makes for less fan connections to players. Yeah, Manfred's problem is with Free Agency. Which has been the best thing for the players. Can't hold that against Bloom or the team for "hiring" new guys all the time. This is the new norm of the world. People come and go in new jobs all the time. That's why they wear their names on the back of their away jerseys. Perhaps they should do it on the home jerseys as well, would probably be my only suggestion.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 27, 2021 2:40:11 GMT -5
It's fine if this is just taking a flyer, not a fan if they are expecting much.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 27, 2021 6:58:35 GMT -5
There really isn't anything to get excited about this. Maybe, hopefully, he does well. Regardless, this is the kind of move that small market teams make.
It has been covered already, so no reason to derail the thread. We need to replace ERod and I personally don't think that throwing things against the wall to see if they stick is all that exciting or even a winning strategy. I foresee a lot of this stuff from Bloom. At some point, i well get annoyed by it.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 27, 2021 7:42:21 GMT -5
It's a jigsaw puzzle to be assembled before opening day. This isn't a corner piece or an edge piece. This is a middle piece.
|
|
rjp313jr
Veteran
Posts: 14,014
Member is Online
|
Post by rjp313jr on Nov 27, 2021 8:08:15 GMT -5
It's a jigsaw puzzle to be assembled before opening day. This isn't a corner piece or an edge piece. This is a middle piece. One of those broken ones you need to smash to try and make it fit
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 27, 2021 8:10:31 GMT -5
It's a jigsaw puzzle to be assembled before opening day. This isn't a corner piece or an edge piece. This is a middle piece. One of those broken ones you need to smash to try and make it fit You do know we made the playoffs right ?
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Nov 27, 2021 8:54:34 GMT -5
True replace richards and perez with wacha and hill still makes sense. I'm not entirely sure they'd necessarily need to replace erod as sale does that in a way. Not saying that's the avenue I'd necessarily want them to go but basically sale/Houck/Whitlock should theoretically be a sufficient replacement for erod should they not sign a guy like stroman or find a trade Bloom likes for a legit middle rotation guy. If you listen to what Bloom says you come away with the sense that it makes more sense to think about the pitching staff in terms of the question "How are we going to put together 1400 innings?" rather than "How are we going to put together 5 starters and 8 relievers?"
Last season their IP leaders were:
Eovaldi - 182 Rodriguez - 158 Pivetta - 155 Richards - 137 Perez - 114 Whitlock - 73 Houck - 69
Sale threw 42. So between him, Whitlock, and Houck you might hope to get another 200 IP. That could indeed replace Rodriguez and then some, in theory, and Wacha could replace some of those Richards/Perez innings. But it's very unlikely everyone's going to be healthy all season, and all in all this looks like just treading water to me, and would lean to an uncomfortable degree on Eovaldi repeating his career year performance. I think they really need another solid 150 IP pitcher; maybe Stroman, maybe a trade target...
I like the idea of looking at it that way, putting together 1400 innings. It sounds like Billy Beane in the movie Moneyball when he is talking about replacing players production. It also plays into the 3,4 inning pitchers that are becoming more and more prevalent and I am not surprised. I would still add Hill to the staff for the same reason. Everyone is talking about replacing ERod without taking into consideration Sale is already doing that. Don't get me wrong I want them to go get a legit starter but maybe that isn't the plan unless they can get someone on their terms. I think piecing together a staff like that can work during the regular season but the Rays have proven that strong starting pitching is needed in the playoffs. The Sox need another top 3.
|
|
|
Post by Addam603 on Nov 27, 2021 9:23:11 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 27, 2021 9:44:11 GMT -5
7 million? What in the holy hell?!!
Welp he's locked into the rotation. Thats a sizable overpay. Wouldn't have went more than 3 million with him.
|
|
|
Post by Addam603 on Nov 27, 2021 9:51:03 GMT -5
The $7 million price tags tells me two things.
1) They’re pretty comfortable/confident in his pitch change from the end of the year and that he’s going to be more like the September version of Michael Wacha.
2) They weren’t the only team on Wacha at or around that price. So if more than one team was thinking 6-7 on Wacha then there’s at least some confidence that he can stick in the rotation for the full year and give solid back end innings.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Nov 27, 2021 9:55:27 GMT -5
$7 million isn't supposed to buy you a Game 2 of the World Series starter you feel good about.
If he has a 2021 Garrett Richards season, the Red Sox did good on the contract.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Nov 27, 2021 9:58:30 GMT -5
Since players are allowed to leave franchises and maximise their pay, there is more frequent movement and it makes for less fan connections to players. Yeah, Manfred's problem is with Free Agency. Which has been the best thing for the players. Can't hold that against Bloom or the team for "hiring" new guys all the time. This is the new norm of the world. People come and go in new jobs all the time. That's why they wear their names on the back of their away jerseys. Perhaps they should do it on the home jerseys as well, would probably be my only suggestion. No, it isn’t with FA. Because I’m all for players getting paid. I also don’t have to have guys come out of the system. Ortiz gets no asterisk. My problem (if it is a “problem”) is with an approach that focuses on short-term turnover to avoid risk. So the Sox were not willing to sign ERod to a pretty reasonable contract, and then they get Wacha for a year. Now, let’s say Wacha and ERod have identical seasons. As someone who wants the Sox to win, I say good. But as someone who wants to enjoy watching them win, I say less good.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,976
|
Post by cdj on Nov 27, 2021 10:06:02 GMT -5
Contract is between Perez and Richards and that’s around where I expect his performance to be
|
|
|
Post by chr31ter on Nov 27, 2021 10:33:52 GMT -5
I mean, it's not like he doesn't have his moments. Just need to figure out how to repeat them with more consistency.
|
|
|
Post by Addam603 on Nov 27, 2021 10:35:30 GMT -5
No incentives on the deal. It would have been ideal if it was a lower salary with incentives that would bring it up to $7, but this is just a straight $7 million. If the Sox can get 1-2 WAR out of him, I’d call it a successful signing.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 27, 2021 10:46:17 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Nov 27, 2021 10:48:32 GMT -5
I mean, it's not like he doesn't have his moments. Just need to figure out how to repeat them with more consistency. Well I hope he finds the magic and pitches the way Ray did this year out of the blue but I would rather have Hill at 2.5.
|
|