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Red Sox Trade Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers
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Post by incandenza on Dec 8, 2021 14:19:46 GMT -5
And I'd add that according to fangraphs' payroll tracker thingy, JBJ is owed 9.5 million this season and Renfroe will likely be owed 7.6 million, and this seems like an awful lot of agita over $1.9 million.
Maybe the argument is that Renfroe should have been traded as a cost-cutting move rather than a prospect-acquiring move, but somehow I don't think anyone believes that.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 8, 2021 14:40:09 GMT -5
What is Blooms budget? You keep saying because they are likely willing to go past a certain point that money isn't an issue. There's a massive difference in that Bloom can spend to 220 million, 240 million or whatever he wants. There is a zero chance he has an unlimited budget. Look at our history, we've never pulled a Dodgers and gone a 100 million over. If he has an unlimited budget I'd agree with you, at that point it would just be opportunity cost with Bradley. So you have to put a number out there or you just keep ignoring my point. I don't see them going past 240 million for example, the floated new luxury tax line by the players. Now look at where they are, leave money for deadline deals and that's where I'm coming from. Say they can afford guys they are linked to like Story and Suzuki, that's looking tough yet might be able to be done. Yet it's not leaving any money to actually replace ERod or add a big time reliever, nevermind the two relievers I'd like to add. The point is that this year's budget is not a limiting factor. They didn't sign Eduardo to a 5-year deal because of the length of the contract, not the dollar amount that it would cost them this season (as evidenced by the fact that they offered him a QO). (I mean, I suppose a 1/50 deal or something would've gotten it done with Eduardo, but I'm speaking within the bounds of reason.) Likewise, the limiting factor for whoever they might still sign - Schwarber, say - is going to be the cost over some number of years, not just this year. That's why paying for JBJ for just this year (and possibly next*) is literally not going to stop them from signing anyone else.
(*still haven't wrapped my head around the option clauses, but whatever, the point stands either way; it's a short-term commitment)
So what's the budget?
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Post by incandenza on Dec 8, 2021 14:47:47 GMT -5
The point is that this year's budget is not a limiting factor. They didn't sign Eduardo to a 5-year deal because of the length of the contract, not the dollar amount that it would cost them this season (as evidenced by the fact that they offered him a QO). (I mean, I suppose a 1/50 deal or something would've gotten it done with Eduardo, but I'm speaking within the bounds of reason.) Likewise, the limiting factor for whoever they might still sign - Schwarber, say - is going to be the cost over some number of years, not just this year. That's why paying for JBJ for just this year (and possibly next*) is literally not going to stop them from signing anyone else.
(*still haven't wrapped my head around the option clauses, but whatever, the point stands either way; it's a short-term commitment)
So what's the budget? It is 237.5 million dollars.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 8, 2021 14:58:16 GMT -5
It is 237.5 million dollars. The certainty of this precise figure is a joke, but it's likely to be close to the truth. There is ZERO evidence that the Red Sox feel the need to stay under what has been the $210M first cap this coming year, and their behavior is at least suggestive evidence that they will not. I have no idea why people are acting like they are going to stay under 210.
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Post by worldbfree on Dec 8, 2021 15:06:29 GMT -5
And I'd add that according to fangraphs' payroll tracker thingy, JBJ is owed 9.5 million this season and Renfroe will likely be owed 7.6 million, and this seems like an awful lot of agita over $1.9 million. Maybe the argument is that Renfroe should have been traded as a cost-cutting move rather than a prospect-acquiring move, but somehow I don't think anyone believes that. The argument for me is simple. You do not trade Renfroe for a bad offensive player. Particularly a bad offensive player with a bad contract. I can’t believe the only available trade regarding Renfroe is one where you get back one of the worst hitters in baseball. The potential prospects don’t outweigh the contract for me. That is my feeling on the trade.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 8, 2021 15:09:08 GMT -5
And I'd add that according to fangraphs' payroll tracker thingy, JBJ is owed 9.5 million this season and Renfroe will likely be owed 7.6 million, and this seems like an awful lot of agita over $1.9 million. Maybe the argument is that Renfroe should have been traded as a cost-cutting move rather than a prospect-acquiring move, but somehow I don't think anyone believes that. The argument for me is simple. You do not trade Renfroe for a bad offensive player. Particularly a bad offensive player with a bad contract. I can’t believe the only available trade regarding Renfroe is one where you get back one of the worst hitters in baseball. The potential prospects don’t outweigh the contract for me. That is my feeling on the trade. Well that makes sense... if you think it's impossible for JBJ to improve, for Renfroe to regress, that you ignore the prospects received and the value of JBJ's defensive ability that the Red Sox desperately need for depth.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 9, 2021 8:01:48 GMT -5
Binelas at 18, boo. I get irrationally excited about new toys, and would have had him at 12.
I'm not sure where the upside talk comes from "Has the potential to develop into a platoon bat ..." Are there splits that limit him to platoon, because otherwise the offensive profile seems to be very positive, i.e., a Travis Shaw type.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Dec 9, 2021 8:20:37 GMT -5
Better to underpromise and overdeliver than the reverse.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 9, 2021 10:03:58 GMT -5
Binelas at 18, boo. I get irrationally excited about new toys, and would have had him at 12. I'm not sure where the upside talk comes from "Has the potential to develop into a platoon bat ..." Are there splits that limit him to platoon, because otherwise the offensive profile seems to be very positive, i.e., a Travis Shaw type. Yeah, I read that too and got deflated a bit. It's not that a lefty platoon hitter doesn't have some good value, it's just I was hoping for a higher ceiling than that, that of an everyday player who could handle LF if 3b doesn't work out and be a masher who can hit enough. I guess his profile makes it look like Hunter Renfroe would be his absolute ceiling? I guess with him, how good he gets is dependent upon how well that hit tool of his develops. Fringe average isn't exactly the hope, but it's probably a good reality of what it looks like with the hope that as he gets through the levels it improves a good deal.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 9, 2021 10:44:07 GMT -5
Ppl forget JBJ was arguably the best player on the 2020 Sox. That wasn’t that long ago! Pretty sure he had wrist issues last year
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 9, 2021 11:08:06 GMT -5
Binelas at 18, boo. I get irrationally excited about new toys, and would have had him at 12. I'm not sure where the upside talk comes from "Has the potential to develop into a platoon bat ..." Are there splits that limit him to platoon, because otherwise the offensive profile seems to be very positive, i.e., a Travis Shaw type. Yeah, I read that too and got deflated a bit. It's not that a lefty platoon hitter doesn't have some good value, it's just I was hoping for a higher ceiling than that, that of an everyday player who could handle LF if 3b doesn't work out and be a masher who can hit enough. I guess his profile makes it look like Hunter Renfroe would be his absolute ceiling? I guess with him, how good he gets is dependent upon how well that hit tool of his develops. Fringe average isn't exactly the hope, but it's probably a good reality of what it looks like with the hope that as he gets through the levels it improves a good deal. I take the ceiling/floor of a guy just drafted or international signee with a grain of salt. If he goes out this year and builds on that success he had in the short time of the minors I'm sure that the ceiling/floor will be updated accordingly. I wonder what Yorke's looked like when he was drafted. I'd imagine it might have been rather similar. It's just so hard to take these young guys just drafted and getting their eventual ceilings correct.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 9, 2021 11:10:22 GMT -5
Ppl forget JBJ was arguably the best player on the 2020 Sox. That wasn’t that long ago! Pretty sure he had wrist issues last year That's not saying much. It was a 60 game season. He was struggling with the bat until the final month. Knowing JBJ's pattern, based on his six prior seasons, I'm pretty sure he would have gone into a deep slump at some point and wound up a full season around .230. We all know he can blow hot and he can blow very cold. I think he's consistent at being inconsistent all season but yet consistently having similar end of the year numbers. I'm sure he wasn't 100% himself last season, but it is an open question to as if he has declined enough to the point that he might not be a .230 hitter anymore. He's probably not a .165 hitter either. Split the difference and that might be what he is and if it is, that's not good enough anymore. If he's closer to the .230ish hitter he was before, then he's playable, but hardly the best player on any Red Sox team with playoff aspirations.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 9, 2021 11:29:14 GMT -5
Binelas at 18, boo. I get irrationally excited about new toys, and would have had him at 12. I'm not sure where the upside talk comes from "Has the potential to develop into a platoon bat ..." Are there splits that limit him to platoon, because otherwise the offensive profile seems to be very positive, i.e., a Travis Shaw type. Yeah, I read that too and got deflated a bit. It's not that a lefty platoon hitter doesn't have some good value, it's just I was hoping for a higher ceiling than that, that of an everyday player who could handle LF if 3b doesn't work out and be a masher who can hit enough. I guess his profile makes it look like Hunter Renfroe would be his absolute ceiling? I guess with him, how good he gets is dependent upon how well that hit tool of his develops. Fringe average isn't exactly the hope, but it's probably a good reality of what it looks like with the hope that as he gets through the levels it improves a good deal. Yeah, I would've thought that a guy who at one point had been in the conversation for a top-10 pick, then missed a lot of time, then started off cold but heated up in his last college season, and then came out guns a-blazin' with a 163 wRC+ in his professional debut, would have a higher *ceiling*, at least, than a defensively weak platoon bat.
But the Hamilton write-up actually seems pretty positive (and makes me wonder if they felt it was time to purchase some Jeter Downs insurance). If they wind up with a lefty platoon bat with power plus a solid backup infielder with good pinch-running ability, that's a nice trade return for a below-average RFer.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 9, 2021 11:38:28 GMT -5
Ppl forget JBJ was arguably the best player on the 2020 Sox. That wasn’t that long ago! Pretty sure he had wrist issues last year That's not saying much. It was a 60 game season. He was struggling with the bat until the final month. Knowing JBJ's pattern, based on his six prior seasons, I'm pretty sure he would have gone into a deep slump at some point and wound up a full season around .230. We all know he can blow hot and he can blow very cold. I think he's consistent at being inconsistent all season but yet consistently having similar end of the year numbers. I'm sure he wasn't 100% himself last season, but it is an open question to as if he has declined enough to the point that he might not be a .230 hitter anymore. He's probably not a .165 hitter either. Split the difference and that might be what he is and if it is, that's not good enough anymore. If he's closer to the .230ish hitter he was before, then he's playable, but hardly the best player on any Red Sox team with playoff aspirations.Of course he doesn't need to be anywhere close to that. If he is close to his career norms then he replaces the value they got from Renfroe and then some.
I will say, though, that a lot of this "he was probably just injured last season, not in irremediable decline" talk might be overlooking the fact that having nagging injuries that one doesn't quite get over is how a lot of players go into irremediable decline. He could bounce back and have a nice 1-2 WAR season, but I'm setting my own personal expectations just a hair above replacement level.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 9, 2021 11:40:00 GMT -5
If you takeout the crazy limited 2020 Covid season, which I do for every player good or bad. He hasn't had an OPS+ above average since 2016. His average in that time went from .267, .245, .234, .225 and .163. Now that's a pattern and it's not a good one. Sure 2020 looks good, yet crazy year with a crazy limited amount of games and we all know Bradley is streaky. You just got a hot streak with no 100 games more to get his cold streaks. It's Baseball and almost anything can happen. So sure there's a chance Bradley finally adjust to the shifts, adjusts his swing for more contact and less power, etc. It's just not likely, Renfroe is likely going to be better by a wide margin. It's why the Brewers trade two prospects to dump him for Renfroe. Steamers projects just that.
Part of me liking Blooms moves last year, was not buying into the 2020 stats. Letting Bradley leave and signing Renfroe.
Nevermind what's the free agent cost for a good defensive CF that can't hit? How many of those guys are stuck in AAA that you could easily trade for?
Jackie Bradley bouncing back if it happens in any meaningful way, still likely makes him a below average hitter. I'll say it now, better chance he gets DFA than bounces back to 2020 levels and it's not even close. Now I hope I'm 100% wrong. I've got a lo love for Bradley and I want the Red Sox to be great. Yet I don't like this one bit, Bradley hasn't adjusted anything since that adjustment on his second call up from the minors. Always thought he'd readjust more into the middle of what he was in the minors versus majors. It just never happened.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 9, 2021 11:54:07 GMT -5
That's not saying much. It was a 60 game season. He was struggling with the bat until the final month. Knowing JBJ's pattern, based on his six prior seasons, I'm pretty sure he would have gone into a deep slump at some point and wound up a full season around .230. We all know he can blow hot and he can blow very cold. I think he's consistent at being inconsistent all season but yet consistently having similar end of the year numbers. I'm sure he wasn't 100% himself last season, but it is an open question to as if he has declined enough to the point that he might not be a .230 hitter anymore. He's probably not a .165 hitter either. Split the difference and that might be what he is and if it is, that's not good enough anymore. If he's closer to the .230ish hitter he was before, then he's playable, but hardly the best player on any Red Sox team with playoff aspirations.Of course he doesn't need to be anywhere close to that. If he is close to his career norms then he replaces the value they got from Renfroe and then some. I will say, though, that a lot of this "he was probably just injured last season, not in irremediable decline" talk might be overlooking the fact that having nagging injuries that one doesn't quite get over is how a lot of players go into irremediable decline. He could bounce back and have a nice 1-2 WAR season, but I'm setting my own personal expectations just a hair above replacement level.
No, he doesn't have to be the best player on the Red Sox. Wouldn't even think of it to be honest. The question is will he hit just enough to hold onto a platoon role as the regular CF or will he flat out be a #4 OF where Arroyo or whoever they get to back him up gets the bulk of ABs in the lineup. I'd be surprised if Cora left JBJ on the bench when a righthanded pitcher starts against the Sox, but we'll see how that plays out. I agree with you that once those nagging injuries start, they can be tough to shake, so he might still have times where he is dealing with those affects. Tougher to bounce back when you're older, I'd think. As aggravating as Renfroe could be with those ridiculous throws (what's a cutoff man for?) or his non-CF range at Fenway's RF, and his lack of plate discipline at times and his awful playoff performance, I still wouldn't call his 2021 performance below average. His offense was above average. His OBP wasn't that far below league average and his slugging average was well above. His defense was so-so, as he did help win some games erasing baserunners with accurate throws. I'd say he was about average overall. So I'd say he was average or a small touch above in 2021. I wouldn't label him as below average. There's a lot of talk about Renfroe going downward in 2022 and JBJ going upward in 2022, but it is also possible that Renfroe could be roughly the same thing in 2022 as he was in 2021 - maybe even a hair better. It's possible JBJ is a .200 hitter at this point with nagging injuries that might keep him off the field and eventually, even as soon as this year, affect his normal excellent fielding. There is that possibility to consider. I understand why others have JBJ snapping back to his normal track record and Renfroe declining off a "career year", and that is possible, but the other scenario I presented is possible, too. Hell, it's possible/most likely probable that Renfroe does decline somewhat, hits .230 and has a terrible OBP while JBJ struggles to hit .200 and stay healthy.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 9, 2021 11:59:35 GMT -5
If you takeout the crazy limited 2020 Covid season, which I do for every player good or bad. He hasn't had an OPS+ above average since 2016. His average in that time went from .267, .245, .234, .225 and .163. Now that's a pattern and it's not a good one. Sure 2020 looks good, yet crazy year with a crazy limited amount of games and we all know Bradley is streaky. You just got a hot streak with no 100 games more to get his cold streaks. It's Baseball and almost anything can happen. So sure there's a chance Bradley finally adjust to the shifts, adjusts his swing for more contact and less power, etc. It's just not likely, Renfroe is likely going to be better by a wide margin. It's why the Brewers trade two prospects to dump him for Renfroe. Steamers projects just that. Part of me liking Blooms moves last year, was not buying into the 2020 stats. Letting Bradley leave and signing Renfroe. Nevermind what's the free agent cost for a good defensive CF that can't hit? How many of those guys are stuck in AAA that you could easily trade for? Jackie Bradley bouncing back if it happens in any meaningful way, still likely makes him a below average hitter. I'll say it now, better chance he gets DFA than bounces back to 2020 levels and it's not even close. Now I hope I'm 100% wrong. I've got a lo love for Bradley and I want the Red Sox to be great. Yet I don't like this one bit, Bradley hasn't adjusted anything since that adjustment on his second call up from the minors. Always thought he'd readjust more into the middle of what he was in the minors versus majors. It just never happened. You love to talk about BA and OPS+ but you're missing a lot of people here with those stats. Others are more likely to look at a cleaner representation of offensive production (like wRC+) or underlying performance stats (like xwOBA). In regards to which:
| wRC+
| xwOBA | 2016
| 118
| .325 | 2017 | 89 | .311 | 2018 | 90 | .344 | 2019 | 89 | .312 | 2021 | 35 | .257 |
These don't paint a picture of consistent decline, as you suggest, but of a plateau that leads to an abrupt cliff in 2021.
Sometimes guys fall of cliffs! That could be the case with JBJ. But sometimes guys have an injury-hampered year (like Bogaerts' 2017) and bounce back.
(Ironically, though, the xwOBA trend looks worse if you do include 2020, when he was at .305.)
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Post by incandenza on Dec 9, 2021 12:07:16 GMT -5
Of course he doesn't need to be anywhere close to that. If he is close to his career norms then he replaces the value they got from Renfroe and then some. I will say, though, that a lot of this "he was probably just injured last season, not in irremediable decline" talk might be overlooking the fact that having nagging injuries that one doesn't quite get over is how a lot of players go into irremediable decline. He could bounce back and have a nice 1-2 WAR season, but I'm setting my own personal expectations just a hair above replacement level.
No, he doesn't have to be the best player on the Red Sox. Wouldn't even think of it to be honest. The question is will he hit just enough to hold onto a platoon role as the regular CF or will he flat out be a #4 OF where Arroyo or whoever they get to back him up gets the bulk of ABs in the lineup. I'd be surprised if Cora left JBJ on the bench when a righthanded pitcher starts against the Sox, but we'll see how that plays out. I agree with you that once those nagging injuries start, they can be tough to shake, so he might still have times where he is dealing with those affects. Tougher to bounce back when you're older, I'd think. As aggravating as Renfroe could be with those ridiculous throws (what's a cutoff man for?) or his non-CF range at Fenway's RF, and his lack of plate discipline at times and his awful playoff performance, I still wouldn't call his 2021 performance below average. His offense was above average. His OBP wasn't that far below league average and his slugging average was well above.
His defense was so-so, as he did help win some games erasing baserunners with accurate throws. I'd say he was about average overall.
So I'd say he was average or a small touch above in 2021. I wouldn't label him as below average.There's a lot of talk about Renfroe going downward in 2022 and JBJ going upward in 2022, but it is also possible that Renfroe could be roughly the same thing in 2022 as he was in 2021 - maybe even a hair better. It's possible JBJ is a .200 hitter at this point with nagging injuries that might keep him off the field and eventually, even as soon as this year, affect his normal excellent fielding. There is that possibility to consider. I understand why others have JBJ snapping back to his normal track record and Renfroe declining off a "career year", and that is possible, but the other scenario I presented is possible, too. Hell, it's possible/most likely probable that Renfroe does decline somewhat, hits .230 and has a terrible OBP while JBJ struggles to hit .200 and stay healthy. I feel like we've gone around on this point like three times, but his offensive production was below average for a right fielder (which is how I referred to him - a "below average RFer"). And by overall fWAR he was slightly below average (just slightly above average by bWAR) but projects to be a sub-2 WAR player next season, i.e., below average.
Anyways... semantics. I accept that Renfroe will probably be better than JBJ in 2022, but as we've all discussed ad infinitum in this thread the broader context is that they're going to upgrade from Renfroe, and we'll see where we're at once they make that move.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 9, 2021 12:07:32 GMT -5
Yeah, I read that too and got deflated a bit. It's not that a lefty platoon hitter doesn't have some good value, it's just I was hoping for a higher ceiling than that, that of an everyday player who could handle LF if 3b doesn't work out and be a masher who can hit enough. I guess his profile makes it look like Hunter Renfroe would be his absolute ceiling? I guess with him, how good he gets is dependent upon how well that hit tool of his develops. Fringe average isn't exactly the hope, but it's probably a good reality of what it looks like with the hope that as he gets through the levels it improves a good deal. It also seems incongruous with the fact that the Sox just purchased him for about $17 million. Yes, I know you can ascribe value to the potential bounce-back of JBJ, but on the whole, I think Chaim must realize that is a longer gamble, meaning the value comes from the prospect(s). Match that with his mid-first round pedigree going into 2021, and the stats that Ian dug out news.soxprospects.com/2021/12/scouting-report-updates-alex-binelas.htmlit seems like the conclusion just doesn't follow the facts laid out. Well, a nice theoretical discussion, because with a minor league season, he'll move quickly into our top ten.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Dec 9, 2021 12:11:16 GMT -5
Setting everything else aside, I expect JBJ to be basically what we remember. He went into last season coming of an extended FA journey and playing for a new team in a new league. Those are all things that can get you off to a miserable start. Back in his longtime home, he could grt back to what he does best.
The big issue to me with him (again in isolation) is I don’t think a starting OF of Verdugo/Bradley/TBA is what I want… but when you shift JBJ to the bench, he is not necessarily a guy I see succeeding in isolated appearances. As a streak player, he needs to play. I can’t imagine many guys I think would make worse pinch hitters, for example.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 9, 2021 13:14:47 GMT -5
No, he doesn't have to be the best player on the Red Sox. Wouldn't even think of it to be honest. The question is will he hit just enough to hold onto a platoon role as the regular CF or will he flat out be a #4 OF where Arroyo or whoever they get to back him up gets the bulk of ABs in the lineup. I'd be surprised if Cora left JBJ on the bench when a righthanded pitcher starts against the Sox, but we'll see how that plays out. I agree with you that once those nagging injuries start, they can be tough to shake, so he might still have times where he is dealing with those affects. Tougher to bounce back when you're older, I'd think. As aggravating as Renfroe could be with those ridiculous throws (what's a cutoff man for?) or his non-CF range at Fenway's RF, and his lack of plate discipline at times and his awful playoff performance, I still wouldn't call his 2021 performance below average. His offense was above average. His OBP wasn't that far below league average and his slugging average was well above.
His defense was so-so, as he did help win some games erasing baserunners with accurate throws. I'd say he was about average overall.
So I'd say he was average or a small touch above in 2021. I wouldn't label him as below average.There's a lot of talk about Renfroe going downward in 2022 and JBJ going upward in 2022, but it is also possible that Renfroe could be roughly the same thing in 2022 as he was in 2021 - maybe even a hair better. It's possible JBJ is a .200 hitter at this point with nagging injuries that might keep him off the field and eventually, even as soon as this year, affect his normal excellent fielding. There is that possibility to consider. I understand why others have JBJ snapping back to his normal track record and Renfroe declining off a "career year", and that is possible, but the other scenario I presented is possible, too. Hell, it's possible/most likely probable that Renfroe does decline somewhat, hits .230 and has a terrible OBP while JBJ struggles to hit .200 and stay healthy. I feel like we've gone around on this point like three times, but his offensive production was below average for a right fielder (which is how I referred to him - a "below average RFer"). And by overall fWAR he was slightly below average (just slightly above average by bWAR) but projects to be a sub-2 WAR player next season, i.e., below average.
Anyways... semantics. I accept that Renfroe will probably be better than JBJ in 2022, but as we've all discussed ad infinitum in this thread the broader context is that they're going to upgrade from Renfroe, and we'll see where we're at once they make that move. I swore I wasn't going to get into it again with you but this is like 5 posts I have ignored you saying Renfroe is below average and I can't help myself. Based on what he just did last yr you just admitted he was average based on both bwar and fwar so it is only a projection that has him below so that means very little to me. You know what does matter to me? Runs, last I checked runs are what wins games and the reality of scoring runs vs an equation that tries to determine value are 2 different things and need to be balanced. Give me a team of guys who have 89 runs, 31 hrs and 96 rbis and my team is going to win a lot of games and most likely a championship. That is not below average IMO. IMO analysis should be balanced.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 9, 2021 13:28:18 GMT -5
I feel like we've gone around on this point like three times, but his offensive production was below average for a right fielder (which is how I referred to him - a "below average RFer"). And by overall fWAR he was slightly below average (just slightly above average by bWAR) but projects to be a sub-2 WAR player next season, i.e., below average.
Anyways... semantics. I accept that Renfroe will probably be better than JBJ in 2022, but as we've all discussed ad infinitum in this thread the broader context is that they're going to upgrade from Renfroe, and we'll see where we're at once they make that move. I swore I wasn't going to get into it again with you but this is like 5 posts I have ignored you saying Renfroe is below average and I can't help myself. Based on what he just did last yr you just admitted he was average based on both bwar and fwar so it is only a projection that has him below so that means very little to me. You know what does matter to me? Runs, last I checked runs are what wins games and the reality of scoring runs vs an equation that tries to determine value are 2 different things and need to be balanced. Give me a team of guys who have 89 runs, 31 hrs and 96 rbis and my team is going to win a lot of games and most likely a championship. That is not below average IMO. IMO analysis should be balanced. I'm not gonna get into a debate about RBIs, but I will just say that teams value players for projected future performance, not past performance, which is the relevant issue when we're talking about a trade like this. That's why I think the projections for next season are more relevant than last season's stats. I'll grant you, though, that he was about average last season, and has been (sans 2020) since 2018.
You can argue that the projections are underestimating his future performance for whatever reason. But they feel about right to me.
ADD: Actually, checking back on it... for whatever reason the steamer projection has ticked down to 1.2 WAR in 553 PAs. I would take the over on that - in particular, they're really bearish on his defense, which I don't think is that bad. Maybe I'd set the over/under at 1.6 WAR or so.
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Post by bosoxnation on Dec 9, 2021 13:55:21 GMT -5
The prospects are big news. The more we acquire the more trade bait and potential studs we have. This trade really can’t be graded for years to come. JBJ in CF just seems right. Look at the Braves regular season, look at the Giants. They have guys who hit below .250 and were just fine. Jackie also always steps up come playoff time. Did you guys forget what Hunter did in the postseason? He hit below .200 and led our team in strikeouts. Yeah i’m not going to miss him. He was a great signing and we got 2 prospects and an equal talented player for him. Great job Bloom!
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 9, 2021 13:57:48 GMT -5
I swore I wasn't going to get into it again with you but this is like 5 posts I have ignored you saying Renfroe is below average and I can't help myself. Based on what he just did last yr you just admitted he was average based on both bwar and fwar so it is only a projection that has him below so that means very little to me. You know what does matter to me? Runs, last I checked runs are what wins games and the reality of scoring runs vs an equation that tries to determine value are 2 different things and need to be balanced. Give me a team of guys who have 89 runs, 31 hrs and 96 rbis and my team is going to win a lot of games and most likely a championship. That is not below average IMO. IMO analysis should be balanced. I'm not gonna get into a debate about RBIs, but I will just say that teams value players for projected future performance, not past performance, which is the relevant issue when we're talking about a trade like this. That's why I think the projections for next season are more relevant than last season's stats. I'll grant you, though, that he was about average last season, and has been (sans 2020) since 2018.
You can argue that the projections are underestimating his future performance for whatever reason. But they feel about right to me.
Take a look at the projection column way to the right on the bwar projections for players and you will see at the top the letters "rel". It stands for reliability and is just a percentage of former stats that is used to determine future stats, it is usually a regression of 15-20%. So all they are doing is taking a percentage of what has been done and projecting everyone will regress by 15 to 20 %. LOL I mean really you think that matters to the guys running teams? Projecting is obviously not an exact science but there is next to nothing in the way of scouting involved or real analysis if all you are doing is picking a % and regressing everyone down. How about we use bwar projections for Chris Sale next season who they have a rel of 49%. 81 innings, 4.11 era, 1.259 whip, no fip prediction. He has a career 5.3 k/w rate but next yr 3.6. Basically the worst season of his career. Do we want to put much stock in that? For other guys who were having really good seasons and then missed time with injuries they still regress them down. It doesn't even make sense sometimes.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 9, 2021 14:00:52 GMT -5
The prospects are big news. The more we acquire the more trade bait and potential studs we have. This trade really can’t be graded for years to come. JBJ in CF just seems right. Look at the Braves regular season, look at the Giants. They have guys who hit below .250 and were just fine. Jackie also always steps up come playoff time. Did you guys forget what Hunter did in the postseason? He hit below .200 and led our team in strikeouts. Yeah i’m not going to miss him. He was a great signing and we got 2 prospects and an equal talented player for him. Great job Bloom! Meh. Even David Ortiz had post-seasons that weren't that great, not many, but I can't make a snap judgment that JBJ is always stepping up in the post-season because he had 3 well timed impactful hits in 15 ABs in the ALCS or that Renfroe is always a dud in the post-season. I remember A-Rod or Bonds couldn't hit in the post-season until they did or that David Price couldn't win one...until he did. All I'm saying is that if I'm going to judge Renfroe, I won't let a relatively small sample of the post-season atbats color my perception. It's a weighing factor toward the overall picture but not a summary judgment of his post season "abilities" or his entire season's body of work.
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