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Red Sox Trade Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 13, 2021 10:52:00 GMT -5
And Back to the actual thread topic. Binelas as a 3rd rd pick and what he has done when healthy is actually pretty impressive. He might end up being a 2nd division 3 outcome player but that is still a decent outcome. In fact it could be considered what Renfroe actually is. Hamilton "could" also end up being a good 2nd division utility player who makes an impact on the bases. And they could both end up being more who knows. I just don't agree with the narrative many here push that they are not good prospects, as far as prospects go. And plz if your going to continue to talk about JBJ's salary being eaten then subtract out Hunters salary. It is misleading to ignore that just to make your argument look better. Honest question: if the Sox have no aspiration to be a 2nd division team, how do these two then factor into their future? It seems like the answer would be eventually to package them — but I am not sure that is the plan. When Bloom begins turning some of these chips around before they lose value, I’ll be a much happier camper. Bobby Dalbec and Christian Arroyo are second division regulars. Good teams need guys like that on cheap salaries. I'd argue he literally just did what you're asking and traded a second division regular (Hunter Renfroe) while he still had some value.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 13, 2021 10:56:41 GMT -5
Sawman was vital during the regular season, Pivetta was a DOG in the playoffs, he didn't overspend on Rizzo (peek Fangraphs Cubs prospects writeup today to see where the Yankees guys landed) and grabbed Schwarber. I could go on, Robles was nails when they needed him to be in September, and Otto was great for half the season, but faded due to overuse. Not even gonna bother bringing up what he's done with the farm system.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 13, 2021 10:58:54 GMT -5
Sawman was vital during the regular season, Pivetta was a DOG in the playoffs, he didn't overspend on Rizzo (peek Fangraphs Cubs prospects writeup today to see where the Yankees guys landed) and grabbed Schwarber. I could go on, Robles was nails when they needed him to be in September, and Otto was great for half the season, but faded due to overuse. Not even gonna bother bringing up what he's done with the farm system. Forgot Iglesias who was had for a song, and was their best 2nd baseman in a while
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 13, 2021 11:02:12 GMT -5
[/quote]
Take it a step further: he got Renfroe (2.3 bWAR) because he traded Beni (2.4 bWAR). He got Kiké because he let JBJ go. If those moves aren’t made, is the team any worse? Not certain.
Those were nice additions, but they were made because hr had made subtractions. And you can’t say “but the prospects” if you are arguing he built *last season’s* team, which played none of those prospects (unless you count Franchy). [/quote]
They probably don't make the playoffs without Hernandez so yes the team is quite a bit worse if the Hernandez replacing jbj doesn't happen. Renfroe and beni yea thats a push.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 13, 2021 11:32:09 GMT -5
overspend on Rizzo (peek Fangraphs Cubs prospects writeup today to see where the Yankees guys landed) In the alternative universe where we're all posting on forum.yankeesprospects.com, the 550 post lockout thread is us taking turns cursing the team for this trade
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 13, 2021 13:27:35 GMT -5
No one has made the assertion that Bloom is never turning down higher prospects. Obviously Bloom will always take the most value he possibly can, and if that means taking one or more guys ranked lower on x or y ranking list, then so be it. Freddy Valdez just turned 20 last week and Josh Winckowski is major league depth for 2022 and is currently our #13 prospect. Khalil Lee played well at AAA last year but only has 18 MLB PA; he's Fangraphs' #7 prospect in NYM's system, which is weaker than ours. You can be sure that the Mets were included in the trade because the Sox were higher on Valdez and Winckowski than they were on Lee, or any other combination of players the Royals were offering up instead of Lee. If the Sox lose out on more deals like this than they win over a significant sample size, then you'd have good reason to question Bloom's talent evaluation. Prospects are so high variance that you can't just point to one trade and be like "he didn't pick up the better prospect, so he messed up", though.
I also don't know what you mean by "The fact no one thinks money matters because we won't spend that much scares the hell out of me." The Red Sox have consistently run a high payroll in recent years, even through the rebuild. It doesn't make sense to go over the luxury tax all of the time, especially in seasons where you're not expecting to be competitive. Bloom not signing any big money FAs to this point is mostly a reflection of how much money the Sox already had committed and how barren the farm was when he took over. Correct me if I'm reading your argument wrong, but Bloom not going out and overpaying for guys like Scherzer or Semien is not evidence that the Sox are now Tampa North and won't spend.
So far, the only FA contract I've seen this fall that I'm sad we didn't match is the Erod deal, and I'm not going to flame them for one non-deal because I obviously have way less information than they do. If this sort of thing happens systematically and we never pay FAs ever again, then sure, get out the pitchforks. We'll know by the end of next offseason, when an insane amount of money comes off the books, if the doubters are right. The Sox are currently 5th in the majors for luxury tax payroll, though, with ~$6-7 million of space before the 2021 LT threshold (per Spotrac). The JBJ deal also gives every indication that we will acquire more FAs and spend up over the 2021 LT threshold. No matter how you slice it, this team very much is spending. I don't think it's fair to imply that FA deals haven't been an option. I'm sure they are. If the players are signing for a lot more than you think they're worth, though, there's no reason to panic and force a signing.
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That extra year of control on Renfroe doesn't have much value if he's a 2 WAR player at his peak. If he reprises his 2021 season in 2022 he'll probably be making what, $12-13 million in 2023 via arbitration in his age 31 season? There's not much value there, and it'd be even worse if he has a bad 2022. At that point he'd be a clear non-tender candidate. ~$7.6 million this year does have a bit of value but nothing spectacular. Provided Bloom spends over the 2021 LT threshold to fill the holes in the roster, namely RF and the bullpen, I think this trade makes a lot of sense for both sides.
You're doing what I just said, Bloom wouldn't turn down a better deal, then give excuses when according to MLB.com he did just that. Now maybe he's right and those guys turn out better. Yet don't act like you know the other offers and Bloom hasn't recently turned down a higher rated prospect. We have no clue if Bloom turned down higher rated guys or he just likes these guys more. He's like the anti DD when it comes to acquiring talent, DD goes after the best prospects he can get, Bloom seems to target guys he likes more and prefers multiples over one better player. That's not a strategy that will workout well unless Bloom is smarter than most GMs and we've yet to see that proof. The biggest free agent deal Bloom has given out is 2 years 14 million. It's not just about how much, it's how you spend it. He's actually acting just like Tampa, yet with a larger payroll mostly filled with guys he didn't sign. You talk about Renfroe being non tendered, which is certainly possible next year. Yet to get 12-13 million he'd have to have a very good year. Yet that also shows you how negative in value Bradley is at one year 17.5 million no? I'll trust Bloom when he's earned it, I don't give out blind trust. It doesn't make sense to trust a year-old ranking from MLB.com over the evaluations of Red Sox front office. I am confident that Bloom would not turn down a package he perceives as more valuable because that would be irrational. Even if Bloom is just average at evaluating talent this method should still work fine. I don't think he is, though.
I addressed why it makes sense for Bloom to not have given out big FA deals to this point, and I've commented multiple times in the past about why I feel Bloom is well deserving of my trust. I would happily rehash that if you'd like, but otherwise please respond to those arguments rather than just reiterating that he hasn't given out big FA deals.
Bradley's cost does not really matter in a year where the Red Sox are already intending to go over the luxury tax. His buyout is expensive for next season, but it's already been priced into the luxury tax calculation, so there'd be no LT hit if we buy him out after this year. The only risk is that he's terrible on the field, and that's hugely mitigated if he's the fourth OF, which I'm sure is the plan. In a fourth OF role he can still provide good value as a late-inning defensive sub, for example, and he can platoon to improve his offensive value.
So, yes, if the Sox don't sign a starting-caliber RF or a LF good enough to justify sliding Verdugo over to RF, I'd agree with you that keeping Renfroe would have been smarter for the 2022 team. Even accounting for a bit of regression to the mean for both JBJ and Renfroe, he's likely to be more valuable than JBJ in 2022. If the Sox sign a Seiya Suzuki type, though, this deal helped improve the Red Sox for 2022 (Suzuki & JBJ > Renfroe) and beyond (Binelas & Hamilton > 0). I think that's the clear intention here.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 13, 2021 14:24:37 GMT -5
Is the team any worse if it had JBJ instead of Kiké last season? That's a 5-WAR swing. They almost certainly don't make the playoffs last season in your counterfactual.
In the counterfactual, a less creative GM - let's call them "Maeve Mombrowski" - holds onto the guys already on the team. So they would have had Beni and JBJ last season (and missed the playoffs). They also never would have acquired the prospects for Benintendi or for Renfroe, so subtract out their 13th, 18th, 26th, 52nd, 53rd, and 58th ranked prospects.
I know you don't care about prospect depth, but just for fun, here are some of the guys who have ranked either 13th or 18th at one point or another in the last 33 rankings posted in the rankings history:
Blaze Jordan Jay Groome Nick Yorke Jarren Duran Jalen Beeks Darwinzon Hernandez Mauricio Dubon Travis Shaw Christian Vazquez Rafael Devers Junichi Tazawa Xander Bogaerts
That's out of about 50 players, due to repeats.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Dec 13, 2021 14:38:01 GMT -5
Is the team any worse if it had JBJ instead of Kiké last season? That's a 5-WAR swing. They almost certainly don't make the playoffs last season in your counterfactual.
In the counterfactual, a less creative GM - let's call them "Maeve Mombrowski" - holds onto the guys already on the team. So they would have had Beni and JBJ last season (and missed the playoffs). They also never would have acquired the prospects for Benintendi or for Renfroe, so subtract out their 13th, 18th, 26th, 52nd, 53rd, and 58th ranked prospects.
I know you don't care about prospect depth, but just for fun, here are some of the guys who have ranked either 13th or 18th at one point or another in the last 33 rankings posted in the rankings history:
Blaze Jordan Jay Groome Nick Yorke Jarren Duran Jalen Beeks Darwinzon Hernandez Mauricio Dubon Travis Shaw Christian Vazquez Rafael Devers Junichi Tazawa Xander Bogaerts
That's out of about 50 players, due to repeats.
Again, those are separate issues. The prospects didn’t play last year, so they have zero bearing on the playoffs. The question came up because Bloom was credited as having created the roster that got them to the playoffs. So only the roster is at issue. Now, I grant JBJ had a far worse year than Kiké. But I’m not sure he had quite as bad a year back in Boston. But… let’s say he does. Then we can throw in Franchy, and you have almost 1 WAR loss between Renfroe/Franchy and Beni. If we want to say — literally — that Bloom saved the season switching out Kiké for JBJ, that seems like pretty wild conjecture, but fine. Otherwise, it seems fair to say he did a good job in some areas, and he was also gifted a great core. Credit to be shared all around. Add: One thing — Renfroe adjacent — this makes me think about. Beni was a good player approaching a moment when he might be too expensive for what he is. Renfroe is similar — either this year or next, he’d be due a salary that could be more than he’s worth. Both cases, Bloom moved in advance. What will he do with Verdugo, who seems like a very similar case?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 13, 2021 14:40:08 GMT -5
I'll trust Bloom when he's earned it, I don't give out blind trust. Literally built a team that made it to within 2 games of the world series [/quote] More like put his touches on a mostly DD team. Exactly what I'm talking about, giving him way too much credit.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 13, 2021 14:45:20 GMT -5
You're doing what I just said, Bloom wouldn't turn down a better deal, then give excuses when according to MLB.com he did just that. Now maybe he's right and those guys turn out better. Yet don't act like you know the other offers and Bloom hasn't recently turned down a higher rated prospect. We have no clue if Bloom turned down higher rated guys or he just likes these guys more. He's like the anti DD when it comes to acquiring talent, DD goes after the best prospects he can get, Bloom seems to target guys he likes more and prefers multiples over one better player. That's not a strategy that will workout well unless Bloom is smarter than most GMs and we've yet to see that proof. The biggest free agent deal Bloom has given out is 2 years 14 million. It's not just about how much, it's how you spend it. He's actually acting just like Tampa, yet with a larger payroll mostly filled with guys he didn't sign. You talk about Renfroe being non tendered, which is certainly possible next year. Yet to get 12-13 million he'd have to have a very good year. Yet that also shows you how negative in value Bradley is at one year 17.5 million no? I'll trust Bloom when he's earned it, I don't give out blind trust. It doesn't make sense to trust a year-old ranking from MLB.com over the evaluations of Red Sox front office. I am confident that Bloom would not turn down a package he perceives as more valuable because that would be irrational. Even if Bloom is just average at evaluating talent this method should still work fine. I don't think he is, though.
I addressed why it makes sense for Bloom to not have given out big FA deals to this point, and I've commented multiple times in the past about why I feel Bloom is well deserving of my trust. I would happily rehash that if you'd like, but otherwise please respond to those arguments rather than just reiterating that he hasn't given out big FA deals.
Bradley's cost does not really matter in a year where the Red Sox are already intending to go over the luxury tax. His buyout is expensive for next season, but it's already been priced into the luxury tax calculation, so there'd be no LT hit if we buy him out after this year. The only risk is that he's terrible on the field, and that's hugely mitigated if he's the fourth OF, which I'm sure is the plan. In a fourth OF role he can still provide good value as a late-inning defensive sub, for example, and he can platoon to improve his offensive value.
So, yes, if the Sox don't sign a starting-caliber RF or a LF good enough to justify sliding Verdugo over to RF, I'd agree with you that keeping Renfroe would have been smarter for the 2022 team. Even accounting for a bit of regression to the mean for both JBJ and Renfroe, he's likely to be more valuable than JBJ in 2022. If the Sox sign a Seiya Suzuki type, though, this deal helped improve the Red Sox for 2022 (Suzuki & JBJ > Renfroe) and beyond (Binelas & Hamilton > 0). I think that's the clear intention here.
MLB.com doesn't just upgrade rankings once a year. I don't agree and I've given my reasons multiple times. That's just crazy talk, of course it matters unless you think that was the best use of the money. This is becoming laughable!
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 13, 2021 14:50:49 GMT -5
So no one wants to rank the prospects, just in Bloom we trust? About what I expected.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 13, 2021 14:51:08 GMT -5
Is the team any worse if it had JBJ instead of Kiké last season? That's a 5-WAR swing. They almost certainly don't make the playoffs last season in your counterfactual.
In the counterfactual, a less creative GM - let's call them "Maeve Mombrowski" - holds onto the guys already on the team. So they would have had Beni and JBJ last season (and missed the playoffs). They also never would have acquired the prospects for Benintendi or for Renfroe, so subtract out their 13th, 18th, 26th, 52nd, 53rd, and 58th ranked prospects.
I know you don't care about prospect depth, but just for fun, here are some of the guys who have ranked either 13th or 18th at one point or another in the last 33 rankings posted in the rankings history:
Blaze Jordan Jay Groome Nick Yorke Jarren Duran Jalen Beeks Darwinzon Hernandez Mauricio Dubon Travis Shaw Christian Vazquez Rafael Devers Junichi Tazawa Xander Bogaerts
That's out of about 50 players, due to repeats.
Again, those are separate issues. The prospects didnât play last year, so they have zero bearing on the playoffs. The question came up because Bloom was credited as having created the roster that got them to the playoffs. So only the roster is at issue. Now, I grant JBJ had a far worse year than Kiké. But Iâm not sure he had quite as bad a year back in Boston. But⦠letâs say he does. Then we can throw in Franchy, and you have almost 1 WAR loss between Renfroe/Franchy and Beni. If we want to say â literally â that Bloom saved the season switching out Kiké for JBJ, that seems like pretty wild conjecture, but fine. Otherwise, it seems fair to say he did a good job in some areas, and he was also gifted a great core. Credit to be shared all around. Add: One thing â Renfroe adjacent â this makes me think about. Beni was a good player approaching a moment when he might be too expensive for what he is. Renfroe is similar â either this year or next, heâd be due a salary that could be more than heâs worth. Both cases, Bloom moved in advance. What will he do with Verdugo, who seems like a very similar case? Goodnees, you're the one who said "he got Kiké because he let JBJ go." That was your premise! But it's a reasonable one based on Dombrowski's moves when he was actually here; he likes the bird in the hand, and JBJ had just had a good 2020 and was very consistent before that. In any case, even factoring in Franchy (which is fair to do) Kiké + Renfroe + Franchy is 5 WAR vs. JBJ + Beni's ~1.5 WAR, which is the difference between the Red Sox making the playoffs or not.
Anyways, yes, I was responding specifically to the issue of whether Bloom could be credited with last year's roster. The prospect stuff was just an add on (but obviously relevant to the broader question of Bloom's overall strategy; we know that he values building prospect depth whever he can, and seeks creative ways to do it).
And on that point about Verdugo... the thought had crossed my mind as well. But Verdugo is still real cheap ($3.2 million projectd in 2022) and he doesn't do the stuff that the arb process overvalues like Renfroe does. Though we'll see what the new CBA says about all that...
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Post by incandenza on Dec 13, 2021 15:06:01 GMT -5
So no one wants to rank the prospects, just in Bloom we trust? About what I expected. I'm not entirely sure what point you're trying to make here, but I think it's that if we don't have a strong opinion about these prospects that none of us have ever seen, then we're just sheep mindlessly accepting Bloom's moves?
But I think most of us are like, "Well, guess that's the best Bloom could get for Renfroe, in his own view. We'll see how it works out." If you think he could've done better, then the onus is on you to say what you think he should've gotten for Renfroe. Maybe cite prospect returns from previous trades for $7-8 million right fielders who project for 1.5 WAR with two years of control, etc.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 13, 2021 15:11:37 GMT -5
It doesn't make sense to trust a year-old ranking from MLB.com over the evaluations of Red Sox front office. I am confident that Bloom would not turn down a package he perceives as more valuable because that would be irrational. Even if Bloom is just average at evaluating talent this method should still work fine. I don't think he is, though.
I addressed why it makes sense for Bloom to not have given out big FA deals to this point, and I've commented multiple times in the past about why I feel Bloom is well deserving of my trust. I would happily rehash that if you'd like, but otherwise please respond to those arguments rather than just reiterating that he hasn't given out big FA deals.
Bradley's cost does not really matter in a year where the Red Sox are already intending to go over the luxury tax. His buyout is expensive for next season, but it's already been priced into the luxury tax calculation, so there'd be no LT hit if we buy him out after this year. The only risk is that he's terrible on the field, and that's hugely mitigated if he's the fourth OF, which I'm sure is the plan. In a fourth OF role he can still provide good value as a late-inning defensive sub, for example, and he can platoon to improve his offensive value.
So, yes, if the Sox don't sign a starting-caliber RF or a LF good enough to justify sliding Verdugo over to RF, I'd agree with you that keeping Renfroe would have been smarter for the 2022 team. Even accounting for a bit of regression to the mean for both JBJ and Renfroe, he's likely to be more valuable than JBJ in 2022. If the Sox sign a Seiya Suzuki type, though, this deal helped improve the Red Sox for 2022 (Suzuki & JBJ > Renfroe) and beyond (Binelas & Hamilton > 0). I think that's the clear intention here.
MLB.com doesn't just upgrade rankings once a year. I don't agree and I've given my reasons multiple times. That's just crazy talk, of course it matters unless you think that was the best use of the money. This is becoming laughable! I see they were updated recently - my bad. Let's say they're updated in real time, though, so you can focus on the main point. Why do you trust MLB.com over the Red Sox FO? If John Henry had imposed a limit on Bloom's spending this offseason such that trading Renfroe would require leaving a gaping hole in RF, this deal makes no sense. The mantra has been to stay competitive in the short term without mortgaging the future, not to poke holes in the roster in a year we're supposed to be competing to benefit the future... The fact that this trade even happened is a good sign that the Sox are planning on spending over the 2021 LT and will look to bring in another starting-caliber OF after the lockout. If they don't, feel free to complain then. For now it seems pointless, though, especially when the gripe hinges on MLB.com being better at evaluating talent than a major league FO.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Dec 13, 2021 15:13:29 GMT -5
Again, those are separate issues. The prospects didnât play last year, so they have zero bearing on the playoffs. The question came up because Bloom was credited as having created the roster that got them to the playoffs. So only the roster is at issue. Now, I grant JBJ had a far worse year than Kiké. But Iâm not sure he had quite as bad a year back in Boston. But⦠letâs say he does. Then we can throw in Franchy, and you have almost 1 WAR loss between Renfroe/Franchy and Beni. If we want to say â literally â that Bloom saved the season switching out Kiké for JBJ, that seems like pretty wild conjecture, but fine. Otherwise, it seems fair to say he did a good job in some areas, and he was also gifted a great core. Credit to be shared all around. Add: One thing â Renfroe adjacent â this makes me think about. Beni was a good player approaching a moment when he might be too expensive for what he is. Renfroe is similar â either this year or next, heâd be due a salary that could be more than heâs worth. Both cases, Bloom moved in advance. What will he do with Verdugo, who seems like a very similar case? Goodnees, you're the one who said "he got Kiké because he let JBJ go." That was your premise! But it's a reasonable one based on Dombrowski's moves when he was actually here; he likes the bird in the hand, and JBJ had just had a good 2020 and was very consistent before that. In any case, even factoring in Franchy (which is fair to do) Kiké + Renfroe + Franchy is 5 WAR vs. JBJ + Beni's ~1.5 WAR, which is the difference between the Red Sox making the playoffs or not.
Anyways, yes, I was responding specifically to the issue of whether Bloom could be credited with last year's roster. The prospect stuff was just an add on (but obviously relevant to the broader question of Bloom's overall strategy; we know that he values building prospect depth whever he can, and seeks creative ways to do it).
And on that point about Verdugo... the thought had crossed my mind as well. But Verdugo is still real cheap ($3.2 million projectd in 2022) and he doesn't do the stuff that the arb process overvalues like Renfroe does. Though we'll see what the new CBA says about all that...
My premise was that that was not a huge difference maker, WAR notwithstanding. I think JBJ would have been closer to his normal numbers with a full off-season (he signed late) and usual routine with Sox. It is a guess. But I don’t believe we can say yes there were these guys left over, but if they hadn’t gotten Renfroe and Kiké they wouldn’t make it. I don’t know what Verdugo’s expected salary leaps are. But there will be a moment…
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 13, 2021 15:26:23 GMT -5
Goodnees, you're the one who said "he got Kiké because he let JBJ go." That was your premise! But it's a reasonable one based on Dombrowski's moves when he was actually here; he likes the bird in the hand, and JBJ had just had a good 2020 and was very consistent before that. In any case, even factoring in Franchy (which is fair to do) Kiké + Renfroe + Franchy is 5 WAR vs. JBJ + Beni's ~1.5 WAR, which is the difference between the Red Sox making the playoffs or not.
Anyways, yes, I was responding specifically to the issue of whether Bloom could be credited with last year's roster. The prospect stuff was just an add on (but obviously relevant to the broader question of Bloom's overall strategy; we know that he values building prospect depth whever he can, and seeks creative ways to do it).
And on that point about Verdugo... the thought had crossed my mind as well. But Verdugo is still real cheap ($3.2 million projectd in 2022) and he doesn't do the stuff that the arb process overvalues like Renfroe does. Though we'll see what the new CBA says about all that...
My premise was that that was not a huge difference maker, WAR notwithstanding. I think JBJ would have been closer to his normal numbers with a full off-season (he signed late) and usual routine with Sox. It is a guess. But I don’t believe we can say yes there were these guys left over, but if they hadn’t gotten Renfroe and Kiké they wouldn’t make it. I don’t know what Verdugo’s expected salary leaps are. But there will be a moment… You really don't think Hernandez over JBJ was a huge difference maker? What does signing late have to do with JBJs offseason preparation? Sorry but I'm not buying that premise in the least bit. Also if you're now saying JBJ with a full regular offseason would be close to his regular numbers, well now he has a normal offseason back in Boston. So are you saying you now expect him to be close to his career numbers on the sox and therefore would be a viable starter?
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Post by incandenza on Dec 13, 2021 15:27:23 GMT -5
Goodnees, you're the one who said "he got Kiké because he let JBJ go." That was your premise! But it's a reasonable one based on Dombrowski's moves when he was actually here; he likes the bird in the hand, and JBJ had just had a good 2020 and was very consistent before that. In any case, even factoring in Franchy (which is fair to do) Kiké + Renfroe + Franchy is 5 WAR vs. JBJ + Beni's ~1.5 WAR, which is the difference between the Red Sox making the playoffs or not.
Anyways, yes, I was responding specifically to the issue of whether Bloom could be credited with last year's roster. The prospect stuff was just an add on (but obviously relevant to the broader question of Bloom's overall strategy; we know that he values building prospect depth whever he can, and seeks creative ways to do it).
And on that point about Verdugo... the thought had crossed my mind as well. But Verdugo is still real cheap ($3.2 million projectd in 2022) and he doesn't do the stuff that the arb process overvalues like Renfroe does. Though we'll see what the new CBA says about all that...
My premise was that that was not a huge difference maker, WAR notwithstanding. I think JBJ would have been closer to his normal numbers with a full off-season (he signed late) and usual routine with Sox. It is a guess. But I don’t believe we can say yes there were these guys left over, but if they hadn’t gotten Renfroe and Kiké they wouldn’t make it. I don’t know what Verdugo’s expected salary leaps are. But there will be a moment… If replacing a negative WAR player with a 4 WAR player is not a big difference-maker, then what the heck would be? Even if having a normal routine somehow makes a 3 WAR difference in JBJ's performance, that's still an upgrade from a 2 WAR player to a 4 WAR player (for $5 million less!). That's an absolute coup in the GMing business.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Dec 13, 2021 15:31:56 GMT -5
My premise was that that was not a huge difference maker, WAR notwithstanding. I think JBJ would have been closer to his normal numbers with a full off-season (he signed late) and usual routine with Sox. It is a guess. But I don’t believe we can say yes there were these guys left over, but if they hadn’t gotten Renfroe and Kiké they wouldn’t make it. I don’t know what Verdugo’s expected salary leaps are. But there will be a moment… You really don't think Hernandez over JBJ was a huge difference maker? What does signing late have to do with JBJs offseason preparation? Sorry but I'm not buying that premise in the least bit. Also if you're now saying JBJ with a full regular offseason would be close to his regular numbers, well now he has a normal offseason back in Boston. So are you saying you now expect him to be close to his career numbers on the sox and therefore would be a viable starter? I think it is possible he can be back to normal, sure. I am not horrified to have him back. I think it is a little peculiar, but I’m not horrified. If they signed a strong 3rd outfielder, I could live player x-JBJ-Verdugo and Kiké at 2b. It leaves them shallow, so they’d need to sign one more reserve guy, too, I’d assume. None of that changes the fact that I find the trade strange. But I said way back that I view it as pretty neutral… which is actually consistent with my position here. OF X-Kiké-Verdugo with Arroyo at 2b or OF X-JBJ-Verdugo with Kiké at 2b is pretty much a push (assuming the money is irrelevant).
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Dec 13, 2021 15:33:44 GMT -5
My premise was that that was not a huge difference maker, WAR notwithstanding. I think JBJ would have been closer to his normal numbers with a full off-season (he signed late) and usual routine with Sox. It is a guess. But I don’t believe we can say yes there were these guys left over, but if they hadn’t gotten Renfroe and Kiké they wouldn’t make it. I don’t know what Verdugo’s expected salary leaps are. But there will be a moment… If replacing a negative WAR player with a 4 WAR player is not a big difference-maker, then what the heck would be? Even if having a normal routine somehow makes a 3 WAR difference in JBJ's performance, that's still an upgrade from a 2 WAR player to a 4 WAR player (for $5 million less!). That's an absolute coup in the GMing business.
Do you think all things being equal the Sox don’t make the playoffs if JBJ is on the team instead of Kiké? I’m not convinced of that. But I accept the view that they don’t. 🤷♂️
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 13, 2021 15:37:41 GMT -5
As a point of information, MLB Pipeline doesn't update continuously. They will insert or remove guys who come and go, but they will, at some point this offseason, refresh their rankings. We've discussed that with Jim on the podcast.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 13, 2021 15:41:33 GMT -5
If replacing a negative WAR player with a 4 WAR player is not a big difference-maker, then what the heck would be? Even if having a normal routine somehow makes a 3 WAR difference in JBJ's performance, that's still an upgrade from a 2 WAR player to a 4 WAR player (for $5 million less!). That's an absolute coup in the GMing business.
Do you think all things being equal the Sox don’t make the playoffs if JBJ is on the team instead of Kiké? I’m not convinced of that. But I accept the view that they don’t. 🤷♂️ I would just ask what you think a difference-making GM move could possibly be, if it's not a 2- or 4- or 5-WAR upgrade (depending on our assumptions) for a team that made the playoffs with a one-game margin to spare.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 13, 2021 16:10:29 GMT -5
If replacing a negative WAR player with a 4 WAR player is not a big difference-maker, then what the heck would be? Even if having a normal routine somehow makes a 3 WAR difference in JBJ's performance, that's still an upgrade from a 2 WAR player to a 4 WAR player (for $5 million less!). That's an absolute coup in the GMing business. Do you think all things being equal the Sox donât make the playoffs if JBJ is on the team instead of Kiké? Iâm not convinced of that. But I accept the view that they donât. ð¤·ââï¸ If the Sox had 2021 JBJ instead of 2021 Kiké Hernandez, they're a 4th place team and not in the playoffs. If JBJ was closer to his normal .230 hitting self, I still don't think they make it. The made it by 1 game, a very razor thin margin. If it were JBJ, they probably finish at 89 or 90 wins and don't make it. 2021 JBJ probably would have had them at about 87 - 88 wins. I mean, Hernandez was filling a key spot in the lineup - the leadoff spot. He didn't do a great job of it in the first half, but in the second half he played like an all-star, or at least from July on afterwards. Maybe JBJ would have been a little better defensively than Kiké, but not by a heckuva lot last year. Hernandez played like a gold glover out there. And there certainly was a few games worth of difference between Renfroe and JBJ in 2021, so yeah, it was a difference maker.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 13, 2021 16:14:39 GMT -5
I'll trust Bloom when he's earned it, I don't give out blind trust. Literally built a team that made it to within 2 games of the world series More like put his touches on a mostly DD team. Exactly what I'm talking about, giving him way too much credit.[/quote] Yet Theo gets the all the credit for 2004...
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 13, 2021 16:20:42 GMT -5
Literally built a team that made it to within 2 games of the world series More like put his touches on a mostly DD team. Exactly what I'm talking about, giving him way too much credit. Yet Theo gets the all the credit for 2004...[/quote] I mean correct me if I'm wrong but theo brought in Ortiz, schilling,Mueller,Millar, foulke, Cabrera, Roberts. Should Theo get all the credit for 04? No I don't think so but it's not a very good comparison to Bloom at all in my mind.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 13, 2021 16:47:46 GMT -5
Yet Theo gets the all the credit for 2004... I mean correct me if I'm wrong but theo brought in Ortiz, schilling,Mueller,Millar, foulke, Cabrera, Roberts. Should Theo get all the credit for 04? No I don't think so but it's not a very good comparison to Bloom at all in my mind. On the ALCS roster, Bloom brought in Schwarber, Arroyo, Verdugo, Kiké, Renfroe, Plawecki, Shaw, Santana, Pivetta, Whitlock, Ottavino, Robles, Pérez and Sawamura. 14 out of 26. If we're keeping score... Dombrowski: Sale, JDM, Dalbec, Eovaldi, Brasier, Houck, Taylor Cherington: Devers, Darwinzon Epstein: Vázquez, Bogaerts I mean, "inheriting the core" is part of what every GM does.
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