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Red Sox Trade Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 13, 2021 16:53:02 GMT -5
I mean correct me if I'm wrong but theo brought in Ortiz, schilling,Mueller,Millar, foulke, Cabrera, Roberts. Should Theo get all the credit for 04? No I don't think so but it's not a very good comparison to Bloom at all in my mind. On the ALCS roster, Bloom brought in Schwarber, Arroyo, Verdugo, Kiké, Renfroe, Plawecki, Shaw, Santana, Pivetta, Whitlock, Ottavino, Robles, Pérez and Sawamura. 14 out of 26. If we're keeping score... Dombrowski: Sale, JDM, Dalbec, Eovaldi, Brasier, Houck, Taylor Cherington: Devers, Darwinzon Epstein: Vázquez, Bogaerts I mean, "inheriting the core" is part of what every GM does. I suppose I hadn't realized exactly how many players Bloom has brought in so that's on me, my apologies for not putting in the research before making my comment regarding Theo, Bloom and the credit each may or may not deserve.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 13, 2021 17:13:23 GMT -5
I was pretty surprised how few players Dombrowski acquired who are still on the roster. I'd have had the number closer to 10 or 12. I guess it's easy to forget how long ago Vazquez and the three IFAs were signed.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 13, 2021 17:23:43 GMT -5
Now I'm curious. Of the 39 guys on the 40-man:
Bloom (2020-present): Arauz, Plawecki, Verdugo, Valdez, Pivetta, Arroyo, Wong, Seabold, Rosario, Potts, Whitlock, Kiké, Sawamura, R. Hernandez, A. Davis, Downs, Winckowski, Wacha, Paxton, Hill, Bradley* (21) DD (8/18/2015-2019): Sale, JDM, Brasier, Eovaldi, Taylor, Dalbec, Houck, Mata, Groome, Duran, Crawford, Bello (12) Cherington (2012-8/18/2015): Devers, Darwinzon, Bazardo (3) Epstein (2003-2011): Vazquez, Bogaerts, Barnes (3)
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 13, 2021 18:52:31 GMT -5
And Back to the actual thread topic. Binelas as a 3rd rd pick and what he has done when healthy is actually pretty impressive. He might end up being a 2nd division 3 outcome player but that is still a decent outcome. In fact it could be considered what Renfroe actually is. Hamilton "could" also end up being a good 2nd division utility player who makes an impact on the bases. And they could both end up being more who knows. I just don't agree with the narrative many here push that they are not good prospects, as far as prospects go. And plz if your going to continue to talk about JBJ's salary being eaten then subtract out Hunters salary. It is misleading to ignore that just to make your argument look better. Honest question: if the Sox have no aspiration to be a 2nd division team, how do these two then factor into their future? It seems like the answer would be eventually to package them — but I am not sure that is the plan. When Bloom begins turning some of these chips around before they lose value, I’ll be a much happier camper. Well first of all they have what all prospects have, potential, and the more prospects with potential you have the greater the chances you will hit on one. Right? And with having more assets you have more chips to sell off when building your roster. Manfred you are a smart guy, you don't need this explained to you. You are just so anti Bloom that you can't help but try to diminish his every move he makes. I get it, until the Sox win a WS ring he hasn't done anything is how you feel. Well let me remind you that the Sox went 86 yrs without one of those, it isn't easy. Not every move is going to immediately turn into a piece of gold like the Philly trade that brought in Pivetta and Seabold. He is taking chances while building the farm system which is heads and shoulders better when he took over, it takes patience to build from the bottom up. And btw they were just 2 games from the WS along that way. The Schwarber move turned into a stroke of genius tight. There will be hits and thee will be misses.
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Post by manfred on Dec 13, 2021 19:07:26 GMT -5
Honest question: if the Sox have no aspiration to be a 2nd division team, how do these two then factor into their future? It seems like the answer would be eventually to package them — but I am not sure that is the plan. When Bloom begins turning some of these chips around before they lose value, I’ll be a much happier camper. Well first of all they have what all prospects have, potential, and the more prospects with potential you have the greater the chances you will hit on one. Right? And with having more assets you have more chips to sell off when building your roster. Manfred you are a smart guy, you don't need this explained to you. You are just so anti Bloom that you can't help but try to diminish his every move he makes. I get it, until the Sox win a WS ring he hasn't done anything is how you feel. Well let me remind you that the Sox went 86 yrs without one of those, it isn't easy. Not every move is going to immediately turn into a piece of gold like the Philly trade that brought in Pivetta and Seabold. He is taking chances while building the farm system which is heads and shoulders better when he took over, it takes patience to build from the bottom up. And btw they were just 2 games from the WS along that way. The Schwarber move turned into a stroke of genius tight. There will be hits and thee will be misses. Looooovveeed the Schwarber trade. Prospect for legit big bat? Every say, twice on Sunday.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 13, 2021 19:13:09 GMT -5
Well first of all they have what all prospects have, potential, and the more prospects with potential you have the greater the chances you will hit on one. Right? And with having more assets you have more chips to sell off when building your roster. Manfred you are a smart guy, you don't need this explained to you. You are just so anti Bloom that you can't help but try to diminish his every move he makes. I get it, until the Sox win a WS ring he hasn't done anything is how you feel. Well let me remind you that the Sox went 86 yrs without one of those, it isn't easy. Not every move is going to immediately turn into a piece of gold like the Philly trade that brought in Pivetta and Seabold. He is taking chances while building the farm system which is heads and shoulders better when he took over, it takes patience to build from the bottom up. And btw they were just 2 games from the WS along that way. The Schwarber move turned into a stroke of genius tight. There will be hits and thee will be misses. Looooovveeed the Schwarber trade. Prospect for legit big bat? Every say, twice on Sunday. I agree with you on more than one level there!! Now I think I get where you are coming from. You look at prospects as suspects and I get that. In comparison to guys who have already done it at the major league level they are still suspects. Shouldn't you then be happy with the building of the system so there are more suspects to trade in the future? One does lead to the other.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 13, 2021 20:32:15 GMT -5
@chrishatfield roughly where would Aldo rank in the SP top 20 rn?
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 13, 2021 21:10:37 GMT -5
So no one wants to rank the prospects, just in Bloom we trust? About what I expected. How is that any different than your "in Bloom, you don't trust"? Obviously you are not going to even consider for a second that MLB.com is ever wrong when rating prospects, so the Red Sox stink and Bloom should be fired. MLB.com should be the Red Sox GM too.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 13, 2021 22:23:09 GMT -5
@chrishatfield roughly where would Aldo rank in the SP top 20 rn? He was ranked 8th at the time of the trade and basically didn't pitch the rest of the year except for rehab. He was ahead of Yorke, who would certainly have passed him, and Groome, who also might have, I think, but behind Houck, who graduated, and Jimenez and Seabold, who would've fallen past him probably (at least Seabold). I personally have Groome ahead of Jordan (they're tied in our internal voting, technically), and I think I'd have put Aldo between them. So somewhere in that 7-8-9 range maybe? Why are we discussing this in this thread btw?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 13, 2021 23:09:08 GMT -5
Taking a look at how MLB.com ranks the Nationals and they have Aldo at 10th with a grade of 45. The players ranked 5th through 14th are also 45s, so he's 6th of 10 in that group.
The Red Sox have 8 45s (they have Chris Murphy as a 50!), ranked 12-19 (they're a bit generous with their rankings). If we figure he would be in the same range (5th of 8) then that would make him 16th for the Red Sox.
A couple of items that may negatively affect his value: 1. He only had 3 strikeouts in 4 outings (7.2 innings) at rookie-level ball after the trade. I assume the injury played a part in this. 2. Aldo will be eligible for the MiLB rule 5 draft next year. As he hasn't made it past low-A, he may not get protected. It would also be a surprise if he's ready for the majors in 2 years, when he has to go on the 40-man or be exposed to the major league rule 5 draft.
I'm willing to bet that Aldo moves again before/if he makes his major league debut.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 14, 2021 0:14:27 GMT -5
@chrishatfield roughly where would Aldo rank in the SP top 20 rn? He was ranked 8th at the time of the trade and basically didn't pitch the rest of the year except for rehab. He was ahead of Yorke, who would certainly have passed him, and Groome, who also might have, I think, but behind Houck, who graduated, and Jimenez and Seabold, who would've fallen past him probably (at least Seabold). I personally have Groome ahead of Jordan (they're tied in our internal voting, technically), and I think I'd have put Aldo between them. So somewhere in that 7-8-9 range maybe? Why are we discussing this in this thread btw? It was a thought I had when giving Bloom credit for moves like 2 pages ago, but have since realized there's no point in arguing with people online
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 14, 2021 1:02:52 GMT -5
MLB.com doesn't just upgrade rankings once a year. I don't agree and I've given my reasons multiple times. That's just crazy talk, of course it matters unless you think that was the best use of the money. This is becoming laughable! I see they were updated recently - my bad. Let's say they're updated in real time, though, so you can focus on the main point. Why do you trust MLB.com over the Red Sox FO? If John Henry had imposed a limit on Bloom's spending this offseason such that trading Renfroe would require leaving a gaping hole in RF, this deal makes no sense. The mantra has been to stay competitive in the short term without mortgaging the future, not to poke holes in the roster in a year we're supposed to be competing to benefit the future... The fact that this trade even happened is a good sign that the Sox are planning on spending over the 2021 LT and will look to bring in another starting-caliber OF after the lockout. If they don't, feel free to complain then. For now it seems pointless, though, especially when the gripe hinges on MLB.com being better at evaluating talent than a major league FO. Who says I do? I'm grading the trade by looking at what we got. I mean this website is rather close to MLB.com, so there really isn't a difference. This isn’t someone has a guy top 100 and someone doesn't. Why do you just trust Bloom? Is he perfect? Even the best GMs make many mistakes, so I just don't understand blind loyalty. Do you think Bradley was the best use of the money? If not, then it's all about did we get enough to offset the better ways we could have spent the money. The fact we might sign another OF is irrelevant unless you truly believe Bradley is the best way to spend 9.5 million 12 luxury tax and 17.5 in actual money and we really don't need to sign anyone else.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 14, 2021 1:16:31 GMT -5
So no one wants to rank the prospects, just in Bloom we trust? About what I expected. I'm not entirely sure what point you're trying to make here, but I think it's that if we don't have a strong opinion about these prospects that none of us have ever seen, then we're just sheep mindlessly accepting Bloom's moves?
But I think most of us are like, "Well, guess that's the best Bloom could get for Renfroe, in his own view. We'll see how it works out." If you think he could've done better, then the onus is on you to say what you think he should've gotten for Renfroe. Maybe cite prospect returns from previous trades for $7-8 million right fielders who project for 1.5 WAR with two years of control, etc.
This isn’t just about Renfroe, I would rank this a good move if it was. Binelas and Hamilton are fine value for Renfroe, yet you need to add in Bradley 9.5 salary, 12 million luxury tax, 17.5 million in money total. Plus the opportunity cost of Bradley at that money. I wouldn't word it that harshly, yet overall sense you're not wrong. This board spends so much time talking about prospects we've never seen play. So I'm really confused. I might be dead wrong, it won't be the first time and it won't be the last. Yet I'm willing to look at what information I have and make a judgment on this trade.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 14, 2021 1:21:13 GMT -5
So no one wants to rank the prospects, just in Bloom we trust? About what I expected. How is that any different than your "in Bloom, you don't trust"? Obviously you are not going to even consider for a second that MLB.com is ever wrong when rating prospects, so the Red Sox stink and Bloom should be fired. MLB.com should be the Red Sox GM too. That's just not true. Wasn't impressed during 2020, liked his moves last year besides the Benintendi trade and I'm certainly not a fan so far this year. Why does everyone keep bringing up MLB.com like this site is crazy similar. The issue is value, not prospect rankings. It's not if one is a 45 and a 40, it's if that's enough. When have I ever said Bloom should be fired?
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Post by bosoxnation on Dec 14, 2021 2:42:01 GMT -5
How is that any different than your "in Bloom, you don't trust"? Obviously you are not going to even consider for a second that MLB.com is ever wrong when rating prospects, so the Red Sox stink and Bloom should be fired. MLB.com should be the Red Sox GM too. That's just not true. Wasn't impressed during 2020, liked his moves last year besides the Benintendi trade and I'm certainly not a fan so far this year. Why does everyone keep bringing up MLB.com like this site is crazy similar. The issue is value, not prospect rankings. It's not if one is a 45 and a 40, it's if that's enough. When have I ever said Bloom should be fired? Be honest, did you like his moves last year when they happened or when they paid off during the season? We went from top 5 pick to 2 wins away from a WS while getting our farm into top 15 in the league. I’m pretty sure he’s doing a good job.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 14, 2021 8:42:08 GMT -5
That's just not true. Wasn't impressed during 2020, liked his moves last year besides the Benintendi trade and I'm certainly not a fan so far this year. Why does everyone keep bringing up MLB.com like this site is crazy similar. The issue is value, not prospect rankings. It's not if one is a 45 and a 40, it's if that's enough. When have I ever said Bloom should be fired? Be honest, did you like his moves last year when they happened or when they paid off during the season? We went from top 5 pick to 2 wins away from a WS while getting our farm into top 15 in the league. I’m pretty sure he’s doing a good job. It's all saved on here, go check for yourself.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 14, 2021 9:23:48 GMT -5
Be honest, did you like his moves last year when they happened or when they paid off during the season? We went from top 5 pick to 2 wins away from a WS while getting our farm into top 15 in the league. I’m pretty sure he’s doing a good job. It's all saved on here, go check for yourself. Probably should just quote it for him, every other post is yours, so it could be hard for him to track down
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 14, 2021 10:06:46 GMT -5
forum.soxprospects.com/post/511668I really believe Bloom is trying to build up the young core before making any splashy signings, that's why I'm not expecting any Correa-like headline moves (at least not yet). This is a prospects forum and honestly we can all agree we enjoy watching the guys come up from the farm, play well, struggle, figure things out, and hopefully eventually thrive in the majors. Very, very excited about the thought of an eventual Casas, Yorke, Mayer, Devers infield down the line. Pitching wise I'm still in wait and see mode but the Wacha signing is about in line with what I expect Bloom to do - personally, I'd like to add a guy like Rich Hill and one of Stroman, Scherzer, Gausman, Rodon, Gray, Pineda, etc to be our 4th starter or higher (Depending on who we sign). So ideally it would look like Eovaldi, Sale, FA Starter, Pivetta, Wacha/Hill, Houck, Whitlock, Seabold, Bello/Groom (Eventually late 2022/early 2023). Give yourself as much depth as possible and keep accumulating arms. Feel towards the end of the season and in the playoffs we just didn't have the depth and weren't giving Cora the options he needs. Bloom should be fired if that's what he's thinking! I mean, that's kind of what he did, right? (You've also said "Bloom should be fired if..." a bunch of times so you'll have to forgive folks for not quite remembering your point.)
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 14, 2021 11:44:48 GMT -5
I see they were updated recently - my bad. Let's say they're updated in real time, though, so you can focus on the main point. Why do you trust MLB.com over the Red Sox FO? If John Henry had imposed a limit on Bloom's spending this offseason such that trading Renfroe would require leaving a gaping hole in RF, this deal makes no sense. The mantra has been to stay competitive in the short term without mortgaging the future, not to poke holes in the roster in a year we're supposed to be competing to benefit the future... The fact that this trade even happened is a good sign that the Sox are planning on spending over the 2021 LT and will look to bring in another starting-caliber OF after the lockout. If they don't, feel free to complain then. For now it seems pointless, though, especially when the gripe hinges on MLB.com being better at evaluating talent than a major league FO. Who says I do? I'm grading the trade by looking at what we got. I mean this website is rather close to MLB.com, so there really isn't a difference. This isn’t someone has a guy top 100 and someone doesn't. Why do you just trust Bloom? Is he perfect? Even the best GMs make many mistakes, so I just don't understand blind loyalty. Do you think Bradley was the best use of the money? If not, then it's all about did we get enough to offset the better ways we could have spent the money. The fact we might sign another OF is irrelevant unless you truly believe Bradley is the best way to spend 9.5 million 12 luxury tax and 17.5 in actual money and we really don't need to sign anyone else.We're going around and around at this point so we should probably stop (please end the lockout soon Baseball Gods), but you keep making this point and people keep disagreeing on the premise that Bradley was essentially included in the deal to get more prospect value, and the only way it makes sense to do that is if his money isn't impacting the rest of the off-season plan. None of us know the budget, fine, you think it's quite low, the rest of us think they have room to still add all the pieces they would otherwise add regardless of Bradley Jr., guess we will find out.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 14, 2021 12:07:45 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Dec 14, 2021 12:20:50 GMT -5
Basically since 2019 his career has gone:
1) talked about as a potential first-rounder
2) missed a season due to injury and then covid 3) was rusty for 13 games 4) absolutely crushed it the rest of his last season in college 5) absolutely crushed it in his professional debut
Feel pretty good about this guy!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 14, 2021 12:35:42 GMT -5
Basically since 2019 his career has gone: 1) talked about as a potential first-rounder
2) missed a season due to injury and then covid 3) was rusty for 13 games 4) absolutely crushed it the rest of his last season in college 5) absolutely crushed it in his professional debut Feel pretty good about this guy!
With him, it's all about that "potential fringe average" hit tool. If it doesn't even reach that, you're looking at a AAAA guy who might be a DH. If he reaches that potential, then perhaps he's a LH Renfroe, a guy who doesn't hit for much average but can hit homers in a platoon role. If he improves upon hit tool, really improves, he could perhaps be a guy who can hit for a reasonable batting average, and perhaps hang in against lefties, maybe be a guy who's simply a regular (as opposed to the description 2nd division regular). My hope is that the Sox have found their future LF and a solid #5/#6 spot power bat for the lineup.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 14, 2021 12:57:04 GMT -5
Basically since 2019 his career has gone: 1) talked about as a potential first-rounder
2) missed a season due to injury and then covid 3) was rusty for 13 games 4) absolutely crushed it the rest of his last season in college 5) absolutely crushed it in his professional debut Feel pretty good about this guy!
With him, it's all about that "potential fringe average" hit tool. If it doesn't even reach that, you're looking at a AAAA guy who might be a DH. If he reaches that potential, then perhaps he's a LH Renfroe, a guy who doesn't hit for much average but can hit homers in a platoon role. If he improves upon hit tool, really improves, he could perhaps be a guy who can hit for a reasonable batting average, and perhaps hang in against lefties, maybe be a guy who's simply a regular (as opposed to the description 2nd division regular). My hope is that the Sox have found their future LF and a solid #5/#6 spot power bat for the lineup. If you take a close look at the numbers he has basically been a 300 hitter with decent bb/k rates and a lot of power. That is taking out those 13 games incandeza mentions. I don't think it is much of a stretch to think he can be a first division regular especially when you take into consideration his age when he put these numbers up. Hopefully he gains more support here once next season comes.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 14, 2021 13:07:30 GMT -5
Add "first division starter" and "second division starter" to "ceiling" and "floor" as scouting terms that I have never really understood. First of all, what are these divisions? How many "first division starters" are there in MLB at a given time? It sounds like it's saying good teams field first division players and bad teams field second division players, but that obviously doesn't make sense; even the best teams are below average at some positions. (Cf. 2018 World Series champion Eduardo Nunez.) Is a second division starter a potential 2 WAR guy? That's pretty useful! 1 WAR guy? That's a lot more meh!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 14, 2021 13:07:39 GMT -5
Binelas at Louisville in 2021, if my quick math is correct:
First 13 games: .137/.262/.216 Final 37 games: .299/.379/.764
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