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Red Sox Trade Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 14, 2021 13:08:38 GMT -5
With him, it's all about that "potential fringe average" hit tool. If it doesn't even reach that, you're looking at a AAAA guy who might be a DH. If he reaches that potential, then perhaps he's a LH Renfroe, a guy who doesn't hit for much average but can hit homers in a platoon role. If he improves upon hit tool, really improves, he could perhaps be a guy who can hit for a reasonable batting average, and perhaps hang in against lefties, maybe be a guy who's simply a regular (as opposed to the description 2nd division regular). My hope is that the Sox have found their future LF and a solid #5/#6 spot power bat for the lineup. If you take a close look at the numbers he has basically been a 300 hitter with decent bb/k rates and a lot of power. That is taking out those 13 games incandeza mentions. I don't think it is much of a stretch to think he can be a first division regular especially when you take into consideration his age when he put these numbers up. Hopefully he gains more support here once next season comes. It's not a gigantic stretch, no, but reading his scouting report here the words, "potential fringe average hit tool" provides me with a lot of caution, triggering me to think of him as somebody who'll struggle to hit .250 in the majors should he make it. It doesn't make me think .275 - .300 type of hitter. Maybe that's a misconception I have based on how I read his scouting report. I have no questions on his power. From everywhere I read, it's legit. Defense is a little concerning. Don't know if he is a 3b or perhaps he shifts to LF?
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 14, 2021 13:09:44 GMT -5
With him, it's all about that "potential fringe average" hit tool. If it doesn't even reach that, you're looking at a AAAA guy who might be a DH. If he reaches that potential, then perhaps he's a LH Renfroe, a guy who doesn't hit for much average but can hit homers in a platoon role. If he improves upon hit tool, really improves, he could perhaps be a guy who can hit for a reasonable batting average, and perhaps hang in against lefties, maybe be a guy who's simply a regular (as opposed to the description 2nd division regular). My hope is that the Sox have found their future LF and a solid #5/#6 spot power bat for the lineup. If you take a close look at the numbers he has basically been a 300 hitter with decent bb/k rates and a lot of power. That is taking out those 13 games incandeza mentions. I don't think it is much of a stretch to think he can be a first division regular especially when you take into consideration his age when he put these numbers up. Hopefully he gains more support here once next season comes. I'll be keeping a close eye on binelas this year for sure. This time next year we could be talking about him as a potential top 5-10 prospect in the system if he goes out and builds on the production he showed in the minors and the end of the college season. On the flipside if he reverts back to how he looked to start the college season he could fall out of the top 30 so he really is fascinating to me.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 14, 2021 13:17:41 GMT -5
If you take a close look at the numbers he has basically been a 300 hitter with decent bb/k rates and a lot of power. That is taking out those 13 games incandeza mentions. I don't think it is much of a stretch to think he can be a first division regular especially when you take into consideration his age when he put these numbers up. Hopefully he gains more support here once next season comes. I'll be keeping a close eye on binelas this year for sure. This time next year we could be talking about him as a potential top 5-10 prospect in the system if he goes out and builds on the production he showed in the minors and the end of the college season. On the flipside if he reverts back to how he looked to start the college season he could fall out of the top 30 so he really is fascinating to me. The thing is, it's not like there's any evidence he's prone to Dalbecian streaks or anything like that. There's the cleanest explanation in the world for why he started off cold last spring: he hadn't played in a game in more than a year. There's no reason at all to think he'll revert to that.
Of course he might come out and stink next year, just due to the baseline uncertainty that comes with pretty much any prospect. But I see a guy who's succeeded at the highest levels he's played at so far.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 14, 2021 13:20:10 GMT -5
Add "first division starter" and "second division starter" to "ceiling" and "floor" as scouting terms that I have never really understood. First of all, what are these divisions? How many "first division starters" are there in MLB at a given time? It sounds like it's saying good teams field first division players and bad teams field second division players, but that obviously doesn't make sense; even the best teams are below average at some positions. (Cf. 2018 World Series champion Eduardo Nunez.) Is a second division starter a potential 2 WAR guy? That's pretty useful! 1 WAR guy? That's a lot more meh! Think more along the lines of small market vs big market. One of the best examples might be a guy like Renfroe. The teams from small markets would love him a lot more than the big market teams that can afford the best players, he wasn't good enough to be a regular on the Sox as far as a lot of people here are concerned, not me btw. If you think about it people here are always looking to upgrade over average players, they want an all star or close at every position.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 14, 2021 13:30:47 GMT -5
Add "first division starter" and "second division starter" to "ceiling" and "floor" as scouting terms that I have never really understood. First of all, what are these divisions? How many "first division starters" are there in MLB at a given time? It sounds like it's saying good teams field first division players and bad teams field second division players, but that obviously doesn't make sense; even the best teams are below average at some positions. (Cf. 2018 World Series champion Eduardo Nunez.) Is a second division starter a potential 2 WAR guy? That's pretty useful! 1 WAR guy? That's a lot more meh! Think more along the lines of small market vs big market. One of the best examples might be a guy like Renfroe. The teams from small markets would love him a lot more than the big market teams that can afford the best players, he wasn't good enough to be a regular on the Sox as far as a lot of people here are concerned, not me btw. If you think about it people here are always looking to upgrade over average players, they want an all star or close at every position. Okay, here's hoping that he turns into a small market starter like Nick Castellanos or Randy Arozarena.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 14, 2021 13:35:29 GMT -5
If you take a close look at the numbers he has basically been a 300 hitter with decent bb/k rates and a lot of power. That is taking out those 13 games incandeza mentions. I don't think it is much of a stretch to think he can be a first division regular especially when you take into consideration his age when he put these numbers up. Hopefully he gains more support here once next season comes. It's not a gigantic stretch, no, but reading his scouting report here the words, "potential fringe average hit tool" provides me with a lot of caution, triggering me to think of him as somebody who'll struggle to hit .250 in the majors should he make it. It doesn't make me think .275 - .300 type of hitter. Maybe that's a misconception I have based on how I read his scouting report. I have no questions on his power. From everywhere I read, it's legit. Defense is a little concerning. Don't know if he is a 3b or perhaps he shifts to LF? Remember that is just one scouting report based on what? How many at bats? I am not a scout nor could I ever be one so I am not questioning that. All I can do is look at the numbers and when I see that stat line out of a freshman I am impressed. Not many guys put up numbers like that at that age in D1. And again this yr in A ball 314 379 636 with 9 Hrs in 29 games. How can you look at that and think naahh he isn't a good prospect.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 14, 2021 13:36:51 GMT -5
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Post by manfred on Dec 14, 2021 13:44:48 GMT -5
Anything at this point is guessing. I guess I tend to assume most front offices are about as wise to their own players as the rest, give or take a few outliers. So I assume the Brewers see his value as the equivalent of subtracting JBJ’s salary plus adding Renfroe’s bat minus Hamilton’s value. So how much is that? Not terribly much. But obviously that is a snapshot. If we think *at this moment* he is an excellent prospect, we figure the Brewers got robbed. If we figure he has no chance, we assume Bloom got robbed. I doubt either of those things.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 14, 2021 13:46:29 GMT -5
Think more along the lines of small market vs big market. One of the best examples might be a guy like Renfroe. The teams from small markets would love him a lot more than the big market teams that can afford the best players, he wasn't good enough to be a regular on the Sox as far as a lot of people here are concerned, not me btw. If you think about it people here are always looking to upgrade over average players, they want an all star or close at every position. Okay, here's hoping that he turns into a small market starter like Nick Castellanos or Randy Arozarena. I hope he does also but if I am getting your sarcasm correct that is part of the point actually. Those types of players end up on big market teams because the small market teams can't afford them in the long run.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 14, 2021 13:49:29 GMT -5
It's not a gigantic stretch, no, but reading his scouting report here the words, "potential fringe average hit tool" provides me with a lot of caution, triggering me to think of him as somebody who'll struggle to hit .250 in the majors should he make it. It doesn't make me think .275 - .300 type of hitter. Maybe that's a misconception I have based on how I read his scouting report. I have no questions on his power. From everywhere I read, it's legit. Defense is a little concerning. Don't know if he is a 3b or perhaps he shifts to LF? Remember that is just one scouting report based on what? How many at bats? I am not a scout nor could I ever be one so I am not questioning that. All I can do is look at the numbers and when I see that stat line out of a freshman I am impressed. Not many guys put up numbers like that at that age in D1. And again this yr in A ball 314 379 636 with 9 Hrs in 29 games. How can you look at that and think naahh he isn't a good prospect. That scouting report is what is showing on this site. Maybe I'm misinterpreting what it means. Maybe Chris or somebody else can explain what "potential fringe average hit tool" should be read as. Anyway, I'm not saying that he isn't a good prospect. He's certainly interesting. Just hope it's not a ceiling of defensively challenged platoon bat. I'm guessing that's what the scouting report projects as a ceiling for him? If it is that does have some value. I guess I'm just hoping there's a LH power hitting bat that can hit enough to play every day and hopefully he can find a defensive position. I don't see a lot of "good shot at impacting the major leagues" type players in the Sox system who are outfielders. The Sox have some really promising infielders on the horizon, so if he did wind up an acceptable LF, that could be a really good thing.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 14, 2021 14:02:36 GMT -5
Okay, here's hoping that he turns into a small market starter like Nick Castellanos or Randy Arozarena. I hope he does also but if I am getting your sarcasm correct that is part of the point actually. Those types of players end up on big market teams because the small market teams can't afford them in the long run. How about Wander Franco and Joey Votto then?
I mean, these all just seem like different ways of saying "good" and "not as good." But how good is "good"? Terms like 'below average,' 'average,' or 'perennial all-star' are a lot more graspable to me.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 14, 2021 14:07:49 GMT -5
Add "first division starter" and "second division starter" to "ceiling" and "floor" as scouting terms that I have never really understood. First of all, what are these divisions? How many "first division starters" are there in MLB at a given time? It sounds like it's saying good teams field first division players and bad teams field second division players, but that obviously doesn't make sense; even the best teams are below average at some positions. (Cf. 2018 World Series champion Eduardo Nunez.) Is a second division starter a potential 2 WAR guy? That's pretty useful! 1 WAR guy? That's a lot more meh! A 95 win team with an average hitter/pitcher balance is looking at a little over 3 WAR per position. I think it's fair to delineate between the guys at or above that 3 WAR line that push a team towards being a top tier contender, and the guys below it. The latter group can still be quite valuable while they're underpaid, but once they're getting a fair salary their natural home tends to be RF in Milwaukee.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 14, 2021 14:11:53 GMT -5
This quote is an indication that they're not thinking about the OF for Binelas.
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Post by nuttyredsox on Dec 14, 2021 14:17:24 GMT -5
Very Interesting from Binelas, While the timing of the deal was shocking to Binelas, the destination wasn’t. As a top draft prospect out of the University of Louisville, he met with the Red Sox multiple times, both last fall and this spring. Binelas thought there was a chance he would be drafted by the Red Sox.
“I felt like the meetings with Boston were my best meetings,” he said. “I felt like I had the best connection with Boston.”
The left-handed hitter batted .309 with a .390 on-base percentage, .583 slugging percentage, .973 OPS, nine homers, 11 doubles, 33 runs and 29 RBIs in 36 games (159 plate appearances) between rookie ball and Low-A in 2021. He had a 24.5% strikeout rate and 11.0% walk rate.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 14, 2021 14:23:21 GMT -5
This quote is an indication that they're not thinking about the OF for Binelas. No, not at the moment. They'll give him every shot at 3b, but the scouting report indicates he has enough speed to handle LF if 3b doesn't wind up an option. Should Devers or Bogaerts wind up at 3b long-term and/or Binelas struggles at 3b, it's good that he has another defensive avenue to take advantage of.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 14, 2021 14:36:27 GMT -5
Quick question that perhaps was answered already regarding Bradley's buyout. If the Sox buy him out at the end of next year or just dfa him if he is as bad as lasy year. Does that 8 million get tacked on to their luxury tax total for this year or next?
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 14, 2021 14:43:20 GMT -5
I hope he does also but if I am getting your sarcasm correct that is part of the point actually. Those types of players end up on big market teams because the small market teams can't afford them in the long run. How about Wander Franco and Joey Votto then?
I mean, these all just seem like different ways of saying "good" and "not as good." But how good is "good"? Terms like 'below average,' 'average,' or 'perennial all-star' are a lot more graspable to me.
Of course their are exceptions to the rule but all you have to do is look at Oakland, Pittsburgh, Cinn. TBay etc etc. Why is Oakland looking to trade all their best players right now when they have a yr or 2 of control left? Because they can't afford them so they want to trade them for the best prospects possible while they still have the added value of being on the cheap side of FA. The only way TBay can keep a guy like Wander is with the kind of deal they struck and I bet there is not a no trade clause. They could still deal him at any point. Imagine the prospects he would bring back in a trade. It is also why a guy like Duran will have a better chance of getting the playing time he needs in Oakland rather than a contending team like the Sox, like Josh Reddick did. You do realize that their are teams that never go over 100 million in payroll and others that never go below 150. The end result of that is there are small vs big market, hence the meaning "generally" of 1st and 2nd division. I know you get it I guess you just don't like the terminology that is used sometimes, I'm certainly not the guy who came up with those terms.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 14, 2021 15:11:28 GMT -5
Quick question that perhaps was answered already regarding Bradley's buyout. If the Sox buy him out at the end of next year or just dfa him if he is as bad as lasy year. Does that 8 million get tacked on to their luxury tax total for this year or next? Bradley counts for 12m this year based on the guaranteed money in his deal, which was 2/24 (counting his 2021 salary, 2022 player option, and 2023 buyout). Next year he'll either count for his salary $4M (difference between his salary and the opt-out) or not at all.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 14, 2021 15:24:13 GMT -5
Remember that is just one scouting report based on what? How many at bats? I am not a scout nor could I ever be one so I am not questioning that. All I can do is look at the numbers and when I see that stat line out of a freshman I am impressed. Not many guys put up numbers like that at that age in D1. And again this yr in A ball 314 379 636 with 9 Hrs in 29 games. How can you look at that and think naahh he isn't a good prospect. That scouting report is what is showing on this site. Maybe I'm misinterpreting what it means. Maybe Chris or somebody else can explain what "potential fringe average hit tool" should be read as. Anyway, I'm not saying that he isn't a good prospect. He's certainly interesting. Just hope it's not a ceiling of defensively challenged platoon bat. I'm guessing that's what the scouting report projects as a ceiling for him? If it is that does have some value. I guess I'm just hoping there's a LH power hitting bat that can hit enough to play every day and hopefully he can find a defensive position. I don't see a lot of "good shot at impacting the major leagues" type players in the Sox system who are outfielders. The Sox have some really promising infielders on the horizon, so if he did wind up an acceptable LF, that could be a really good thing. What I have noticed is that this site is extremely conservative with scouting reports until they get eyes on prospects. I don't put much stock into them until they are actually scouted.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 14, 2021 15:32:41 GMT -5
How about Wander Franco and Joey Votto then?
I mean, these all just seem like different ways of saying "good" and "not as good." But how good is "good"? Terms like 'below average,' 'average,' or 'perennial all-star' are a lot more graspable to me.
Of course their are exceptions to the rule but all you have to do is look at Oakland, Pittsburgh, Cinn. TBay etc etc. Why is Oakland looking to trade all their best players right now when they have a yr or 2 of control left? Because they can't afford them so they want to trade them for the best prospects possible while they still have the added value of being on the cheap side of FA. The only way TBay can keep a guy like Wander is with the kind of deal they struck and I bet there is not a no trade clause. They could still deal him at any point. Imagine the prospects he would bring back in a trade. It is also why a guy like Duran will have a better chance of getting the playing time he needs in Oakland rather than a contending team like the Sox, like Josh Reddick did. You do realize that their are teams that never go over 100 million in payroll and others that never go below 150. The end result of that is there are small vs big market, hence the meaning "generally" of 1st and 2nd division. I know you get it I guess you just don't like the terminology that is used sometimes, I'm certainly not the guy who came up with those terms. Yes, like I said, it just seems like a very roundabout way of saying "good" or "not as good," but without any real specificity as to what counts as "good." julianmorley's 3 WAR criterion makes some sense, but then, why not just say player X projects to be worth Y WAR per season?
Anyway, this is probably as much of my grumbling about an arcane scouting term as the world needs, so I'll leave it at that.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 14, 2021 16:08:08 GMT -5
Of course their are exceptions to the rule but all you have to do is look at Oakland, Pittsburgh, Cinn. TBay etc etc. Why is Oakland looking to trade all their best players right now when they have a yr or 2 of control left? Because they can't afford them so they want to trade them for the best prospects possible while they still have the added value of being on the cheap side of FA. The only way TBay can keep a guy like Wander is with the kind of deal they struck and I bet there is not a no trade clause. They could still deal him at any point. Imagine the prospects he would bring back in a trade. It is also why a guy like Duran will have a better chance of getting the playing time he needs in Oakland rather than a contending team like the Sox, like Josh Reddick did. You do realize that their are teams that never go over 100 million in payroll and others that never go below 150. The end result of that is there are small vs big market, hence the meaning "generally" of 1st and 2nd division. I know you get it I guess you just don't like the terminology that is used sometimes, I'm certainly not the guy who came up with those terms. Yes, like I said, it just seems like a very roundabout way of saying "good" or "not as good," but without any real specificity as to what counts as "good." julianmorley's 3 WAR criterion makes some sense, but then, why not just say player X projects to be worth Y WAR per season?
Anyway, this is probably as much of my grumbling about an arcane scouting term as the world needs, so I'll leave it at that. You are right about julianms 3 war criterion. I think it is just a way of saying good but not good enough like Hunter Renfroe or Josh Reddick. Like their are guys who play for Baltimore or Pittsburgh that would never play in NY or Boston, people here might call some of them AAAA players.
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Post by geostorm on Dec 14, 2021 16:46:44 GMT -5
one -
Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware):
Super power guy Alex Binelas has gone off to the Red Sox in the trade for Hunter Renfro - would he have been a candidate for a high prospect ranking if he were still in the Brewer's organization?
Ben Badler: Would have likely been in the 15-20 range. Big big power, but also some swing holes and defensive limits.
Ben Badler: David Hamilton is the guy I think could sting more to lose. Maybe he ends up a utility type, but I’m a fan of his contact skills, plate discipline and speed.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 14, 2021 16:49:36 GMT -5
Quick question that perhaps was answered already regarding Bradley's buyout. If the Sox buy him out at the end of next year or just dfa him if he is as bad as lasy year. Does that 8 million get tacked on to their luxury tax total for this year or next? Bradley counts for 12m this year based on the guaranteed money in his deal, which was 2/24 (counting his 2021 salary, 2022 player option, and 2023 buyout). Next year he'll either count for his salary or not at all. *And by salary - 4mil (not the 12mil as 8mil has already been accounted for)
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 14, 2021 16:58:19 GMT -5
The thing is, it's not like there's any evidence he's prone to Dalbecian streaks or anything like that. There's the cleanest explanation in the world for why he started off cold last spring: he hadn't played in a game in more than a year. There's no reason at all to think he'll revert to that.
[...]
Adjective watch: I think the spelling "Dalbecian" would be pronounced with a soft c, like "Grecian formula" If you want to keep the hard c I think you need to add a k to make it "Dalbeckian", like when "traffic" becomes "trafficking." (That's also a good point about Binelas._
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 14, 2021 17:04:59 GMT -5
one -
Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware):
Super power guy Alex Binelas has gone off to the Red Sox in the trade for Hunter Renfro - would he have been a candidate for a high prospect ranking if he were still in the Brewer's organization?
Ben Badler: Would have likely been in the 15-20 range. Big big power, but also some swing holes and defensive limits.
Ben Badler: David Hamilton is the guy I think could sting more to lose. Maybe he ends up a utility type, but I’m a fan of his contact skills, plate discipline and speed.
That's what worries me. If I'm interpreting Badler the right way it sounds like a utility guy is the bigger loss in this deal for the Brewers which tells me he doesn't look at Binelas and see a regular. And the defensive limits doesn't sound too promising either. Binelas is an interesting prospect, but the "some swing holes" comment worries me that he would be a low batting average (.225 - .250) type hitter in the majors, one with major defensive issues. Maybe the Sox look at Binelas and think they can close up some of those swing holes? I hope so, because the current scouting report gives me pause. I mean this is where I can see what UMass has been saying. You trade Renfroe AND take on the additional moneys owed to JBJ, the great glove, noodle bat that might be beyond salvage, and you get a future utility guy and a guy who's most likely to be a good deal less than what Renfroe was in 2021, then I don't see this deal as the slam dunk others see it as. So it really does come down to the hit tool and if the Sox can help him improve it, because without it I don't know that the Sox do well in this deal, excluding the separate transaction of who the Sox get to play RF. On the flipside, if the Sox unlock that hit tool somehow, then the Sox might make out like bandits in this deal. Hope the Sox are right about this.
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