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Red Sox Trade Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 14, 2021 17:11:47 GMT -5
Ji-Min Choi .229/.754 Austin Meadows .234/.772 Mike Zunino .216/.860 Brandon Lowe .247/.863 Nelson Cruz .226/.725 Brett Phillips .206/.727
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Dec 14, 2021 17:15:14 GMT -5
Ji-Min Choi .229/.754 Austin Meadows .234/.772 Mike Zunino .216/.860 Brandon Lowe .247/.863 Nelson Cruz .226/.725 Brett Phillips .206/.727 I’m shocked this lineup can’t get fans to the stadium. Sounds like they are a blast.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 14, 2021 17:26:27 GMT -5
Ji-Min Choi .229/.754 Austin Meadows .234/.772 Mike Zunino .216/.860 Brandon Lowe .247/.863 Nelson Cruz .226/.725 Brett Phillips .206/.727 I’m shocked this lineup can’t get fans to the stadium. Sounds like they are a blast. Winning is a blast, lol
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 14, 2021 18:03:21 GMT -5
Why so much hand-wringing over prospects? You need a lot of them so that a small percentage works out and contributes or exceeds their scouting reports and becomes an every day player for years or for trades and we got more. Doesn't matter much if either works out. The org is better to have them now. This forum gets weird sometimes, especially when we should all know what the deal is by now with prospects.
Even the ones who may not work out one day can be traded long before then to improve the team.
Dalbec worried everyone and he is a useful major league player. Not everyone has to turn out like Mookie, Xander or Devers to be worth something.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Dec 14, 2021 18:28:08 GMT -5
I’m shocked this lineup can’t get fans to the stadium. Sounds like they are a blast. Winning is a blast, lol Well, if I were a Rays fan, I’d just go to the beach and have someone tell me where the victory party is. Win or lose, I can’t sit for 3+ hours watching 3-true-outcomes guys.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Dec 14, 2021 18:28:43 GMT -5
Progress by prospects is not linear, and these two kids are extreme examples of that. To those still handwringing over perceived holes in Binelas’ swing, I strongly recommend Cotillo’s recent piece on the non-linear progress of this real talent who, pre-injury and CoVid season, was thought of as a potential first round draft pick.
IMO, Bloom’s acquisition of Hunter Renfroe is a gift that keeps on giving. Glad we had Hunter for 2021. Glad he brought us Binelas and Hamilton; and especially for bringing JBJ back home to bolster this defense. Glad also that we now have a spot to offer Suzuki.
Thanks also to the new Sox FO genius from Milwaukee who apparently arrived with a secret message. Excited for Bloom & Co’s next moves.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 14, 2021 22:31:09 GMT -5
Bradley counts for 12m this year based on the guaranteed money in his deal, which was 2/24 (counting his 2021 salary, 2022 player option, and 2023 buyout). Next year he'll either count for his salary or not at all. *And by salary - 4mil (not the 12mil as 8mil has already been accounted for) Crap. Good call. My bad!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 14, 2021 22:32:29 GMT -5
Why so much hand-wringing over prospects? You do know what website you are posting on, right? The site literally exists because of prospects and prospect-followers.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 14, 2021 23:44:55 GMT -5
Why so much hand-wringing over prospects? You need a lot of them so that a small percentage works out and contributes or exceeds their scouting reports and becomes an every day player for years or for trades and we got more. Doesn't matter much if either works out. The org is better to have them now. This forum gets weird sometimes, especially when we should all know what the deal is by now with prospects. Even the ones who may not work out one day can be traded long before then to improve the team. Dalbec worried everyone and he is a useful major league player. Not everyone has to turn out like Mookie, Xander or Devers to be worth something. That's how you grade trades like this. You sound like you'd be happy with this trade no matter who they got and I certainly don't understand that.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 14, 2021 23:47:33 GMT -5
Well, if I were a Rays fan, I’d just go to the beach and have someone tell me where the victory party is. Win or lose, I can’t sit for 3+ hours watching 3-true-outcomes guys. I actually would love going to see other teams on the cheap. I see those prices and it's amazing compared to the price to see one Red Sox game.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Dec 15, 2021 2:16:36 GMT -5
Used to LOVE going to Sox games at the Trop. Good seats good price. Not the cowbells tho.
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Post by orion09 on Dec 15, 2021 6:30:28 GMT -5
Add "first division starter" and "second division starter" to "ceiling" and "floor" as scouting terms that I have never really understood. First of all, what are these divisions? How many "first division starters" are there in MLB at a given time? It sounds like it's saying good teams field first division players and bad teams field second division players, but that obviously doesn't make sense; even the best teams are below average at some positions. (Cf. 2018 World Series champion Eduardo Nunez.) Is a second division starter a potential 2 WAR guy? That's pretty useful! 1 WAR guy? That's a lot more meh! Pre-1969, "first division" referred to teams that finished in the top half of the standings, which entitled them to a portion of what are now called postseason shares en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_division_(baseball)
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 15, 2021 6:57:01 GMT -5
Why so much hand-wringing over prospects? You do know what website you are posting on, right? The site literally exists because of prospects and prospect-followers. Hmm are you not misreading his post? His next sentence is “you need a lot of them”. I read it as “why the hand-wringing over whether an individual prospect is good enough to justify a trade? You need to kiss a lot of frogs to get a prince, so you need to acquire a lot of prospects to maximize your chances that a few of them will be very good.’
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 15, 2021 7:15:10 GMT -5
Re low BA, Mitch Moreland's Sox years were .252/.803.
If Binelas can be a lefty Dalbec with less streakiness it would be good.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 15, 2021 10:01:23 GMT -5
Re low BA, Mitch Moreland's Sox years were .252/.803. If Binelas can be a lefty Dalbec with less streakiness it would be good. I get your point that the batting average can be low and still be a productive offensive player. I'd rather Binelas not be a .240ish hitter, but yes he can be one of those 3 true outcome guys, and be productive, but be one without a defensive home. It just seems to me that nowadays those guys are plentiful to get - I mean isn't most of the league comprised of guys that hit .240, jack HRs, take some walks, and strike out a bunch? I guess the idea of trading for one in the future while taking on the additional salary of the change from Renfroe to Bradley and the replacement cost of having to get another RF (not that I have an issue with that, honestly). It just seems like a lot of maneuvering to get a guy like that for the future when I think at this stage of where baseball is at, it's easy to get guys like that. I'm hoping there's something more - that the Sox see more than just a 3 true outcome kind of guy and can work on him so he's a better hitter while maintaining the power. I guess I'm also just burnt out from the style of play that the 3 true outcome thing has become. Yeah, it can be effective. I guess I just miss the variety of ways baseball can be played. I like teams not striking out and putting the ball into play, being able to play small ball when they need do, etc.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 15, 2021 10:11:02 GMT -5
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 15, 2021 10:26:49 GMT -5
It's so interesting that people want to give Schwarber (162 game avgs of .243/.337 with 37 HRs) upwards of $20mil, but are afraid of a power hitting prospect hitting .244
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 15, 2021 10:39:57 GMT -5
It's so interesting that people want to give Schwarber (162 game avgs of .243/.337 with 37 HRs) upwards of $20mil, but are afraid of a power hitting prospect hitting .244 It is, but he's also the best of that archetype. The guy is a walk machine with a sky high OBP. If Binelas can walk that often (without hitting like Gallo) I'd be impressed. Plus he did bat .291 last year with Boston so that also sticks in the mind (the best of Schwarber) even if most of us think he'll revert back to .240. If he had been around .230 maybe the desire to keep him would have been lesser. He was also a breath of fresh air when compared to a team of hackers as he had a really good plate approach, plus he was lefthanded, something the team was sorely lacking. If Suzuki is what some think he is, I think people would be happy with a Suzuki/Schwarber tradeoff.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 15, 2021 10:51:36 GMT -5
It's so interesting that people want to give Schwarber (162 game avgs of .243/.337 with 37 HRs) upwards of $20mil, but are afraid of a power hitting prospect hitting .244 It is, but he's also the best of that archetype. The guy is a walk machine with a sky high OBP. If Binelas can walk that often (without hitting like Gallo) I'd be impressed. Plus he did bat .291 last year with Boston so that also sticks in the mind (the best of Schwarber) even if most of us think he'll revert back to .240. If he had been around .230 maybe the desire to keep him would have been lesser. He was also a breath of fresh air when compared to a team of hackers as he had a really good plate approach, plus he was lefthanded, something the team was sorely lacking. If Suzuki is what some think he is, I think people would be happy with a Suzuki/Schwarber tradeoff. Outside of last season, he really has never been a sky-high OBP guy tho. Not to mention his injury concerns. Don't get me wrong, I like Schwarber, but I'm not chomping at the bit to get into a bidding war for him
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 15, 2021 11:20:51 GMT -5
It is, but he's also the best of that archetype. The guy is a walk machine with a sky high OBP. If Binelas can walk that often (without hitting like Gallo) I'd be impressed. Plus he did bat .291 last year with Boston so that also sticks in the mind (the best of Schwarber) even if most of us think he'll revert back to .240. If he had been around .230 maybe the desire to keep him would have been lesser. He was also a breath of fresh air when compared to a team of hackers as he had a really good plate approach, plus he was lefthanded, something the team was sorely lacking. If Suzuki is what some think he is, I think people would be happy with a Suzuki/Schwarber tradeoff. Outside of last season, he really has never been a sky-high OBP guy tho. Not to mention his injury concerns. Don't get me wrong, I like Schwarber, but I'm not chomping at the bit to get into a bidding war for him No, we totally saw the best of him last season. We saw a .291 hitter in a lineup that was surrounded by guys having quick ABs. Add in the power, the walks, the plate discipline, it's not hard to imagine that "he found something" that leads him to bigger and better things with the bat, like hitting for a respectable BA (like .270). I guess it's how much weight you put on the fact that he was doing his normal thing, hitting .215 for the Nats, when suddenly he went off like he never has before, whacking 16 homers in 18 games or whatever it was. Then he get hurt, traded, and then follows that up OPSing over .900 for the Sox. So it brings you to the question that we always ask ourselves. Is this the new Kyle Schwarber level? Or is this just an amazing hot streak that will give way to the huge sample size that preceded it? As Red Sox fans we saw him as good as he has ever been, so yeah, you can make yourself think that Schwarber at Fenway is a monster. He has to be because if he's the guy he was prior to that, given his awful defense, it's easy to bypass a guy like that. Given how righthanded the lineup is outside of Devers and Verdugo, and if Schwarber can be had on a short-term deal (like 3 years) I'd be interested in him. Now tying that to Binelas, my excitement level towards him ties in with how well his hit tool develops. 3 true outcome player is a general statement which I'm guilty of making, but they're not all equal. They don't all walk at the same rate, homer at the same rate, or even hit for average at the same rate. The Dalbec of the first 4 months was pretty useless and needed to be replaced in the lineup. The one that hit that ball the last two months was fantastic. It all tied in with making contact and getting hits. I'm not against Binelas as much as I sound like I am. I get that he could be trade bait, a decent platoon bat with a low BA and good pop, a AAAA bat with zero defense, or maybe even a guy who can play regularly and be a solid offensive player. And those outcomes tie in with what I feel the Sox should have paid to bring him in. I mean the Sox didn't trade Renfroe to get Binelas or take on JBJ additional 4 million this year and 8 million buy-out to get Binelas. They did both and yes, they got a future utility man with speed to go along with him.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 15, 2021 11:41:25 GMT -5
Bradley counts for 12m this year based on the guaranteed money in his deal, which was 2/24 (counting his 2021 salary, 2022 player option, and 2023 buyout). Next year he'll either count for his salary or not at all. *And by salary - 4mil (not the 12mil as 8mil has already been accounted for) This somehow didn't occur to me, but provided we get a replacement RF I like this trade even more now. I'm expecting JBJ to regress to the mean a bit in 2022, meaning his bat will be more useful than last year, especially if he's used in a platoon role. Still, there's a good chance $12 million will be an overpay for what he offers in 2022.
With that said, though, having an outfielder of JBJ's caliber, even in his age 33 season, for just $4 million against the LT sounds awesome! Who knows if the Sox will go over the tax in 2023 too, but this little deal could come in handy. If JBJ's bat bounces back to somewhere vaguely close to where it was from 2015-2020, he could even be a fair answer in CF for 2023, assuming Kiké signs elsewhere. JBJ will slow down in the field at some point, but given how good he was defensively in 2021, his defense should still play in CF in 2023.
I don't want to count my chickens given how bad his bat was last year either, and maybe if Duran takes off this'll end up being moot, but still. My point is that there's some potential for actual value in JBJ's deal, rather than it being a pure salary dump...just not until 2023.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 15, 2021 11:42:27 GMT -5
Why so much hand-wringing over prospects? You do know what website you are posting on, right? The site literally exists because of prospects and prospect-followers. Of course I do, do you? Since I assumed that we all know that not all prospects work out so there is no use judging trades based on whether they all work out. This thread seems like it's on a non-prospects forum where prospects are worthless if they don't reach their ceilings. That's why I asked. It seems there is a group of people who would question any trade for prospects. I mean how can this trade ever be the disaster that some think it's going to be even if the prospects are busts? You still make this trade every time.
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Post by manfred on Dec 15, 2021 12:30:31 GMT -5
You do know what website you are posting on, right? The site literally exists because of prospects and prospect-followers. Of course I do, do you? Since I assumed that we all know that not all prospects work out so there is no use judging trades based on whether they all work out. This thread seems like it's on a non-prospects forum where prospects are worthless if they don't reach their ceilings. That's why I asked. It seems there is a group of people who would question any trade for prospects. I mean how can this trade ever be the disaster that some think it's going to be even if the prospects are busts? You still make this trade every time. Disaster obviously oversells it. And in isolation, it really probably doesn’t move the needle enormously one way or the other. But if a FO leans heavily into taking a slight loss now to accumulate prospects, cumulatively, it diminishes short term prospects. Mookie, Beni, Renfroe… all trades that were short/medium losses talent-wise. Even Moreland, who would have helped last year. I’m not saying a) the idea was bad; or b) *case by case* there wasn’t a rationale. I think, though, some of us would like to see more balance of short and long game. As people say, they were two wins from the WS last year… so get those wins! And not literally 1/2 WAR here, half there… if you need 2, shoot for 5. They were 2 wins from the series… and 1 game from not making the playoffs. You lose a little, you could be going home early.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 15, 2021 12:58:21 GMT -5
Of course I do, do you? Since I assumed that we all know that not all prospects work out so there is no use judging trades based on whether they all work out. This thread seems like it's on a non-prospects forum where prospects are worthless if they don't reach their ceilings. That's why I asked. It seems there is a group of people who would question any trade for prospects. I mean how can this trade ever be the disaster that some think it's going to be even if the prospects are busts? You still make this trade every time. Disaster obviously oversells it. And in isolation, it really probably doesn’t move the needle enormously one way or the other. But if a FO leans heavily into taking a slight loss now to accumulate prospects, cumulatively, it diminishes short term prospects. Mookie, Beni, Renfroe… all trades that were short/medium losses talent-wise. Even Moreland, who would have helped last year. I’m not saying a) the idea was bad; or b) *case by case* there wasn’t a rationale. I think, though, some of us would like to see more balance of short and long game. As people say, they were two wins from the WS last year… so get those wins! And not literally 1/2 WAR here, half there… if you need 2, shoot for 5. They were 2 wins from the series… and 1 game from not making the playoffs. You lose a little, you could be going home early. Not to get all the way back to where we started, but most here are assuming that this trade, like the Beni one, allows them to fill the spot with an equal or better talent they can get for just $. It doesn't make sense to view them in isolation this way.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 15, 2021 13:06:15 GMT -5
Of course I do, do you? Since I assumed that we all know that not all prospects work out so there is no use judging trades based on whether they all work out. This thread seems like it's on a non-prospects forum where prospects are worthless if they don't reach their ceilings. That's why I asked. It seems there is a group of people who would question any trade for prospects. I mean how can this trade ever be the disaster that some think it's going to be even if the prospects are busts? You still make this trade every time. Disaster obviously oversells it. And in isolation, it really probably doesn’t move the needle enormously one way or the other. But if a FO leans heavily into taking a slight loss now to accumulate prospects, cumulatively, it diminishes short term prospects. Mookie, Beni, Renfroe… all trades that were short/medium losses talent-wise. Even Moreland, who would have helped last year. I’m not saying a) the idea was bad; or b) *case by case* there wasn’t a rationale. I think, though, some of us would like to see more balance of short and long game. As people say, they were two wins from the WS last year… so get those wins! And not literally 1/2 WAR here, half there… if you need 2, shoot for 5. They were 2 wins from the series… and 1 game from not making the playoffs. You lose a little, you could be going home early. Just like they lost nothing by trading Benintendi and improved his position by spending $3M for Renfroe, they will do the same thing this year by trading Renfroe and spending money with a lot more prospects from those two trades. There is no 'slight loss now' by making these trades. And Mookie was its own thing and should not be lumped in with these discussions.
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