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Red Sox Trade Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 15, 2021 16:53:05 GMT -5
I will say that comparing the 11 and 15 prospect for the Sox in 2020 is not apples to apples to the 18 and 26 going into 2022. The farm is quite a bit stronger now than in 2020. I thought of that, too. But the difference in the system isn't that dramatic. It's not enough to cover the difference in the rankings of the four players and the cost/productivity differences between Renfroe vs. JBJ. In my eyes it is a that dramatic of difference Baseball America has them at number 9 as of August 21st. Which is up 11 from their preseason rankings and it was even lower during 2020. Now I'm not saying that the two prospects are guaranteed to be good but I bet they'd have been roughly in that same range as Potts and Rosario if the farm was in similar shape as when they were acquired.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 15, 2021 16:53:45 GMT -5
I will say that comparing the 11 and 15 prospect for the Sox in 2020 is not apples to apples to the 18 and 26 going into 2022. The farm is quite a bit stronger now than in 2020. I thought of that, too. But the difference in the system isn't that dramatic. It's not enough to cover the difference in the rankings of the four players and the cost/productivity differences between Renfroe vs. JBJ. At the time if I recall correctly nearly everyone thought that was an over the top haul for Moreland. Based on how those prospects have done since, maybe the external consensus rankings were just wrong on those guys and industry people valued them less highly. It's also possible the reverse is true in this instance.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 15, 2021 17:22:52 GMT -5
I thought of that, too. But the difference in the system isn't that dramatic. It's not enough to cover the difference in the rankings of the four players and the cost/productivity differences between Renfroe vs. JBJ. In my eyes it is a that dramatic of difference Baseball America has them at number 9 as of August 21st. Which is up 11 from their preseason rankings and it was even lower during 2020. Now I'm not saying that the two prospects are guaranteed to be good but I bet they'd have been roughly in that same range as Potts and Rosario if the farm was in similar shape as when they were acquired. Well, MLB Pipeline had Binelas and Hamilton at 16 and 17 in a Brewers system that is ranked 25th. So, even in a lousy system they didn't rank high. Also worth noting: the RS passed on Binelas at pick no. 75 and took Tyler McDonough instead. They spent $829,000 to sign TM. The Brewers took Binelas at 86 and signed him for $700K. Again, if CB thinks Binelas has great potential, then we have to trust his judgment. It's why he's here. But it would mean he's seeing something others aren't seeing and that even he didn't see at draft time.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 15, 2021 17:41:58 GMT -5
Couple of points.
1) I think people make too much of system rankings. A system can be deep but still lack impact talent and therefore have a poor ranking. Marcelo Mayer has a lot more to do with the Red Sox being 9th than any combination of the players ranked 15th to 30th, so I don't know that I'd read a ton into it past the top 5 or 10 (where nobody is arguing Hamilton or Binelas should be).
2) McDonough got slot and Binelas got a very small amount over slot (maybe like 10 k). I wouldn't look as much into bonus as I would into draft position. At any rate, they're both third-rounders and should be ranked near each other (as we do at 18 and 21, which is in the same range really). I think Binelas does have some potential upside at the plate, but I don't think anyone here is saying he belongs in the top 10, nor is anyone saying he's not even a top 30 guy.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 15, 2021 18:00:41 GMT -5
In my eyes it is a that dramatic of difference Baseball America has them at number 9 as of August 21st. Which is up 11 from their preseason rankings and it was even lower during 2020. Now I'm not saying that the two prospects are guaranteed to be good but I bet they'd have been roughly in that same range as Potts and Rosario if the farm was in similar shape as when they were acquired. Well, MLB Pipeline had Binelas and Hamilton at 16 and 17 in a Brewers system that is ranked 25th. So, even in a lousy system they didn't rank high. Also worth noting: the RS passed on Binelas at pick no. 75 and took Tyler McDonough instead. They spent $829,000 to sign TM. The Brewers took Binelas at 86 and signed him for $700K. Again, if CB thinks Binelas has great potential, then we have to trust his judgment. It's why he's here. But it would mean he's seeing something others aren't seeing and that even he didn't see at draft time. Or - again - maybe Renfroe just wasn't worth that much. Like, it's not obvious to me that he's worth so much more than Moreland was at the 2020 trade deadline in the midst of a very good season. Renfroe has slightly better career offensive numbers; Moreland has better defensive numbers. Renfroe has totaled 5.8 fWAR in his career and is about to turn 30; he's one year removed from signing a 1/3 deal. He's under control for 2023 but might earn more than he's worth in arbitration.
I don't know what a good comp for this trade is, but maybe Joc Pederson is pretty comparable to Renfroe? He was traded at the deadline for Bryce Ball, a 40 FV prospect that fangraphs ranks 32nd in the Cubs' system and mlb doesn't rank at all in the top 30. (Deadline trades for rentals are disanalogous, but I think it points in the general vicinity of the value of a player of this caliber.) So for Renfroe plus the $4.5 million the Red Sox are saving Milwaukee (JBJ's salary - Renfroe's salary), they got a better prospect than that in Binelas, plus Hamilton, who looks like he has a good shot to stick in MLB as a utility infielder.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 16, 2021 11:05:58 GMT -5
If you keep Benintendi and don't sign Gonzalez, you are clearly a better team right? No negative Cordero, no negative Gonzalez and you'd get a big boast with Benintendi. It was a downgrade talent wise for prospects that hopefully help you long-term. I see the Renfroe trade as very similar, keeping Renfroe and signing another guy will be cheaper givin Bradley's salary and likely produces you more bwar. I base trades in two phases, when they are made and the final results. In my book Renfroe and another signing, with the extra 10 million in cash, plus 5 million in luxury space will get you more bwar for the team than Bradley. That's supported by projections at both Baseball Refrence and Fangraphs. The only way you can't see this as a down grade this year is if you believe Bradley will out produce Renfroe and ten million dollars and signing another guy. So it's all about that cost versus the prospects we got. I'd give it a C right now because I don't think they got enough and I see Binelas as a risky level 45 prospect. Like I said day one that doesn't mean it can't workout. I can see a similar comp to Dalbec and if that happens it's a good trade long-term. Now say he got another 45 grade prospect added in, one much closer to the bigs that's less risky. I'd greatly improve my grade when he made it and the outcomes wouldn't matter. I think Groome was a darn good pick no matter what happens, it was worth the risk given his upside. You take a Yorke much higher than anyone has him, the outcome matters more. The GM will deserve much more credit also. Like Danny Ainge valuing Tatum #1 when no other team did or him valuing Brown much higher than everyone else. It was risky, if he was wrong he'd take a ton of criticism and because he was right he gets a ton of praise. Everyone talks about the Dodgers, yet if you want to be them it's not just adding in prospect in large numbers. It's about those Kemp trades that net you Downs and Gray that are top 100 guys a year latter. You can only use so many depth and up and down players, the real heavy value is the guys that are better. To give another example take the Betts trade, I liked that. Still a little surprised he couldn't get one of there many pitchers. Yet no matter what happens that was a good solid trade. Yet I say that because of how I valued the players we got back. A good young proven OF, a high upside middle infielder who people talk about maybe playing CF, and a bat first catcher that can play many different positions. Take the Workman and Hembree trade, that was great no matter what happens in my book. The Moreland trade was more so so given how on fire he was. Not horrible by any means, yet it certainly makes you wonder what else was out there. Nevermind them needing to be moved to the 40 man roster so soon was a big part of that trade. At the same time these trades didn't hurt your season or add long-term payroll, so that's a big plus. These are those Kemp trades that can net you top 100 guys in the future. Obviously we don't know where these players will end up, but Gray was ranked 18th in the Dodgers system the season after the trade, Binelas in the Sox now? 18th. Everyone would love another prospect, but that's not what Hunter Renfroe was worth. Not to say they'll definitely work out, but you have to try or you never get the surplus value. I wouldn't compare that Dodger team filled with elite prospects to our system. I don't see Binelas having Gray's upside, I think Dalbec is the better comp. Gray was a recent 2nd round pick. I like Binelas yet you have the strikeout worry and which position he can play.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 16, 2021 11:14:46 GMT -5
Well, MLB Pipeline had Binelas and Hamilton at 16 and 17 in a Brewers system that is ranked 25th. So, even in a lousy system they didn't rank high. Also worth noting: the RS passed on Binelas at pick no. 75 and took Tyler McDonough instead. They spent $829,000 to sign TM. The Brewers took Binelas at 86 and signed him for $700K. Again, if CB thinks Binelas has great potential, then we have to trust his judgment. It's why he's here. But it would mean he's seeing something others aren't seeing and that even he didn't see at draft time. Or - again - maybe Renfroe just wasn't worth that much. Like, it's not obvious to me that he's worth so much more than Moreland was at the 2020 trade deadline in the midst of a very good season. Renfroe has slightly better career offensive numbers; Moreland has better defensive numbers. Renfroe has totaled 5.8 fWAR in his career and is about to turn 30; he's one year removed from signing a 1/3 deal. He's under control for 2023 but might earn more than he's worth in arbitration.
I don't know what a good comp for this trade is, but maybe Joc Pederson is pretty comparable to Renfroe? He was traded at the deadline for Bryce Ball, a 40 FV prospect that fangraphs ranks 32nd in the Cubs' system and mlb doesn't rank at all in the top 30. (Deadline trades for rentals are disanalogous, but I think it points in the general vicinity of the value of a player of this caliber.) So for Renfroe plus the $4.5 million the Red Sox are saving Milwaukee (JBJ's salary - Renfroe's salary), they got a better prospect than that in Binelas, plus Hamilton, who looks like he has a good shot to stick in MLB as a utility infielder.
Joc had a minus .3 bwar when he was traded so I certainly don't see that comp. Renfroe last three full seasons,, 2.4 bwar, 2.4 bwar and 2.3 bwar. That's more like trading Joc after 2018.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 16, 2021 11:44:33 GMT -5
Or - again - maybe Renfroe just wasn't worth that much. Like, it's not obvious to me that he's worth so much more than Moreland was at the 2020 trade deadline in the midst of a very good season. Renfroe has slightly better career offensive numbers; Moreland has better defensive numbers. Renfroe has totaled 5.8 fWAR in his career and is about to turn 30; he's one year removed from signing a 1/3 deal. He's under control for 2023 but might earn more than he's worth in arbitration.
I don't know what a good comp for this trade is, but maybe Joc Pederson is pretty comparable to Renfroe? He was traded at the deadline for Bryce Ball, a 40 FV prospect that fangraphs ranks 32nd in the Cubs' system and mlb doesn't rank at all in the top 30. (Deadline trades for rentals are disanalogous, but I think it points in the general vicinity of the value of a player of this caliber.) So for Renfroe plus the $4.5 million the Red Sox are saving Milwaukee (JBJ's salary - Renfroe's salary), they got a better prospect than that in Binelas, plus Hamilton, who looks like he has a good shot to stick in MLB as a utility infielder.
Joc had a minus .3 bwar when he was traded so I certainly don't see that comp. Renfroe last three full seasons,, 2.4 bwar, 2.4 bwar and 2.3 bwar. That's more like trading Joc after 2018. Yeah, the consistent strain here is that I think you're overvaluing Renfroe. If we're completely throwing out 2020, Pederson has 6.4 fWAR since 2018; Renfroe has 5.4. Pederson has had a higher wRC+ in 4 of the last 6 seasons than Renfroe has ever had in a season in his career. They have similar defensive numbers. Steamer projects Pederson for 1.5 WAR, Renfroe for 1.2.
bWAR likes Renfroe better and fWAR likes Pederson better. I'd call that a wash. And fwiw, the fangraphs crowdsource thing projects Pederson to get a 2/18 contract, which is probably real close to what Renfroe will get paid in the next two seasons in arbitration. He's basically already getting paid his free agent value.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 16, 2021 11:48:03 GMT -5
These are those Kemp trades that can net you top 100 guys in the future. Obviously we don't know where these players will end up, but Gray was ranked 18th in the Dodgers system the season after the trade, Binelas in the Sox now? 18th. Everyone would love another prospect, but that's not what Hunter Renfroe was worth. Not to say they'll definitely work out, but you have to try or you never get the surplus value. I wouldn't compare that Dodger team filled with elite prospects to our system. I don't see Binelas having Gray's upside, I think Dalbec is the better comp. Gray was a recent 2nd round pick. I like Binelas yet you have the strikeout worry and which position he can play. Gray was a pitcher out of rookie ball who easily could have been an RP. 2nd vs 3rd round ain’t a huge difference, and Binelas was talked about as a potential 1st rounder before a slow start to his college season after 400 days off of baseball. The Dodgers system might have had elite guys at the top but as Chris points out that doesn’t mean the 15-25 range was much different than the Sox is now. By all appearances Gray at the time was a similarly regarded prospect to how Binelas is now. My point isn’t that he’s going to rise as quickly, it’s just that it’s possible and the more guys like this you get the better chance you have of one of them hitting it, especially if the Sox do end up being good at identifying talent.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 16, 2021 14:50:23 GMT -5
Joc had a minus .3 bwar when he was traded so I certainly don't see that comp. Renfroe last three full seasons,, 2.4 bwar, 2.4 bwar and 2.3 bwar. That's more like trading Joc after 2018. Yeah, the consistent strain here is that I think you're overvaluing Renfroe. If we're completely throwing out 2020, Pederson has 6.4 fWAR since 2018; Renfroe has 5.4. Pederson has had a higher wRC+ in 4 of the last 6 seasons than Renfroe has ever had in a season in his career. They have similar defensive numbers. Steamer projects Pederson for 1.5 WAR, Renfroe for 1.2.
bWAR likes Renfroe better and fWAR likes Pederson better. I'd call that a wash. And fwiw, the fangraphs crowdsource thing projects Pederson to get a 2/18 contract, which is probably real close to what Renfroe will get paid in the next two seasons in arbitration. He's basically already getting paid his free agent value.
Baseball Refrence has that in reverse 7.1 bwar for Renfroe and 4.9 for Joc Pederson. The thing is Joc Pederson just had by far his worst season since 2018. If he gets 2 year 18 million after a -.1 bwar season, that just makes Renfroe more valuable. If Joc Pederson didn't have an OPS+ of 91 when he was traded, isn't it logical they would have got a lot more? He wasn't traded after his 2018 or 2019 season right? You pay and trade for future production, not past production. There was a time when Joc Pederson was more valuable, it's not last year though. I almost always stick to Baseball Refrence, if your a fangraph guy that's the difference. I'm not overvaluing him, you're saying Baseball Refrence is. I'd also add that Renfroe greatly improving against RHP in two of the last three years is big for me. That's a trend a lefty killer needs.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 16, 2021 15:01:58 GMT -5
I wouldn't compare that Dodger team filled with elite prospects to our system. I don't see Binelas having Gray's upside, I think Dalbec is the better comp. Gray was a recent 2nd round pick. I like Binelas yet you have the strikeout worry and which position he can play. Gray was a pitcher out of rookie ball who easily could have been an RP. 2nd vs 3rd round ain’t a huge difference, and Binelas was talked about as a potential 1st rounder before a slow start to his college season after 400 days off of baseball. The Dodgers system might have had elite guys at the top but as Chris points out that doesn’t mean the 15-25 range was much different than the Sox is now. By all appearances Gray at the time was a similarly regarded prospect to how Binelas is now. My point isn’t that he’s going to rise as quickly, it’s just that it’s possible and the more guys like this you get the better chance you have of one of them hitting it, especially if the Sox do end up being good at identifying talent. That's why I asked everyone to grade the prospects. Say they were both grade 45 risky prospects. I would have given Gray a higher ceiling, the strikeouts and fact he likely can't stay at 3B, only a maybe on the OF and might be stuck at 1B with that crazy high bar for his bat lowers his ceiling for me. Put another way if he was above average at 3B and could play a good OF I'd look at this trade differently.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 16, 2021 15:11:32 GMT -5
Gray was a pitcher out of rookie ball who easily could have been an RP. 2nd vs 3rd round ain’t a huge difference, and Binelas was talked about as a potential 1st rounder before a slow start to his college season after 400 days off of baseball. The Dodgers system might have had elite guys at the top but as Chris points out that doesn’t mean the 15-25 range was much different than the Sox is now. By all appearances Gray at the time was a similarly regarded prospect to how Binelas is now. My point isn’t that he’s going to rise as quickly, it’s just that it’s possible and the more guys like this you get the better chance you have of one of them hitting it, especially if the Sox do end up being good at identifying talent. That's why I asked everyone to grade the prospects. Say they were both grade 45 risky prospects. I would have given Gray a higher ceiling, the strikeouts and fact he likely can't stay at 3B, only a maybe on the OF and might be stuck at 1B with that crazy high bar for his bat lowers his ceiling for me. Put another way if he was above average at 3B and could play a good OF I'd look at this trade differently. Everything you just described lowers his floor not his ceiling. That aside, of course we'd all like the trade better if he was a better prospect, but turns out Renfroe wasn't worth that. If the things you said weren't question marks he wouldn't be a 45. It's nice that you would have liked Gray so much in 2018, but we don't know what other 45 grade prospects were on the table in this case, it's very possible the Red Sox picked the one they see as having the highest upside.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 16, 2021 15:23:37 GMT -5
Yeah, the consistent strain here is that I think you're overvaluing Renfroe. If we're completely throwing out 2020, Pederson has 6.4 fWAR since 2018; Renfroe has 5.4. Pederson has had a higher wRC+ in 4 of the last 6 seasons than Renfroe has ever had in a season in his career. They have similar defensive numbers. Steamer projects Pederson for 1.5 WAR, Renfroe for 1.2.
bWAR likes Renfroe better and fWAR likes Pederson better. I'd call that a wash. And fwiw, the fangraphs crowdsource thing projects Pederson to get a 2/18 contract, which is probably real close to what Renfroe will get paid in the next two seasons in arbitration. He's basically already getting paid his free agent value.
Baseball Refrence has that in reverse 7.1 bwar for Renfroe and 4.9 for Joc Pederson. The thing is Joc Pederson just had by far his worst season since 2018. If he gets 2 year 18 million after a -.1 bwar season, that just makes Renfroe more valuable. If Joc Pederson didn't have an OPS+ of 91 when he was traded, isn't it logical they would have got a lot more? He wasn't traded after his 2018 or 2019 season right? You pay and trade for future production, not past production. There was a time when Joc Pederson was more valuable, it's not last year though. I almost always stick to Baseball Refrence, if your a fangraph guy that's the difference. I'm not overvaluing him, you're saying Baseball Refrence is. I'd also add that Renfroe greatly improving against RHP in two of the last three years is big for me. That's a trend a lefty killer needs. Why were the Red Sox able to sign Renfroe for 1 year $3M then?
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 17, 2021 7:43:39 GMT -5
Add "first division starter" and "second division starter" to "ceiling" and "floor" as scouting terms that I have never really understood. First of all, what are these divisions? How many "first division starters" are there in MLB at a given time? It sounds like it's saying good teams field first division players and bad teams field second division players, but that obviously doesn't make sense; even the best teams are below average at some positions. (Cf. 2018 World Series champion Eduardo Nunez.) Is a second division starter a potential 2 WAR guy? That's pretty useful! 1 WAR guy? That's a lot more meh! I am not really trying to rehash this conversation but was reading another thread which was discussing the OF for next season and it caused a thought about this conversation. Most here expect there to be another move for a corner OFer that brings a solid bat right, that includes me. But how many 2nd division teams would be going into the season with what the Sox have right now with the plan that Duran would be part of the OF. It is about expectations from fans of big market teams that they would certainly have a better plan than that. Maybe it would just be better to say big or small rather than the division stuff but they are the terms we read sometimes. Once again this is just me voicing a thought. I am happy to not be a Pirates fan!!
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Dec 17, 2021 8:25:48 GMT -5
Just noticed this thread is up to 28 pages and no signs of slowing. The Beni trade was 43 pages and included things like 6 months of wishcasting for PTBNLs and actual games/results to ponder. Seems like a bit much, y'all. I know we're all bored but...
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Post by incandenza on Dec 17, 2021 10:19:00 GMT -5
Yeah, the consistent strain here is that I think you're overvaluing Renfroe. If we're completely throwing out 2020, Pederson has 6.4 fWAR since 2018; Renfroe has 5.4. Pederson has had a higher wRC+ in 4 of the last 6 seasons than Renfroe has ever had in a season in his career. They have similar defensive numbers. Steamer projects Pederson for 1.5 WAR, Renfroe for 1.2.
bWAR likes Renfroe better and fWAR likes Pederson better. I'd call that a wash. And fwiw, the fangraphs crowdsource thing projects Pederson to get a 2/18 contract, which is probably real close to what Renfroe will get paid in the next two seasons in arbitration. He's basically already getting paid his free agent value.
Baseball Refrence has that in reverse 7.1 bwar for Renfroe and 4.9 for Joc Pederson. The thing is Joc Pederson just had by far his worst season since 2018. If he gets 2 year 18 million after a -.1 bwar season, that just makes Renfroe more valuable. If Joc Pederson didn't have an OPS+ of 91 when he was traded, isn't it logical they would have got a lot more? He wasn't traded after his 2018 or 2019 season right? You pay and trade for future production, not past production. There was a time when Joc Pederson was more valuable, it's not last year though. I almost always stick to Baseball Refrence, if your a fangraph guy that's the difference. I'm not overvaluing him, you're saying Baseball Refrence is. I'd also add that Renfroe greatly improving against RHP in two of the last three years is big for me. That's a trend a lefty killer needs. I've noticed that b-ref WAR seems to be more sensitive to defensive numbers than fWAR. And I'm not a strong believer in the defensive metrics. What I see in Renfroe is a guy who can do two things well: hit homers, and throw guys out. He doesn't get on base at a high rate. He's not a great baserunner. He makes a lot of mistakes in the outfield. It all looks to me like a slightly below average player.
If you think he's a little above 2, and has made some adjustments that will make him better going forward, then I don't think that's crazy by any means. Agree to disagree on that. But as jimed points out the Red Sox were somehow able to sign him for 1/3 a year ago, and they traded him for... what they traded him for this year. So it certainly doesn't seem like his market is being valued at Joc Pederson '18 levels.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 17, 2021 10:43:07 GMT -5
That's why I asked everyone to grade the prospects. Say they were both grade 45 risky prospects. I would have given Gray a higher ceiling, the strikeouts and fact he likely can't stay at 3B, only a maybe on the OF and might be stuck at 1B with that crazy high bar for his bat lowers his ceiling for me. Put another way if he was above average at 3B and could play a good OF I'd look at this trade differently. Everything you just described lowers his floor not his ceiling. That aside, of course we'd all like the trade better if he was a better prospect, but turns out Renfroe wasn't worth that. If the things you said weren't question marks he wouldn't be a 45. It's nice that you would have liked Gray so much in 2018, but we don't know what other 45 grade prospects were on the table in this case, it's very possible the Red Sox picked the one they see as having the highest upside. I rank him very risky, he basically has no floor at this point. I rank ceiling based on a prospects 5 tools, so I don't know how you can say it doesn't effect his ceiling. He's not a raw 17 year old prospect will all the tools that's yet to put things together. His lone really good tool is power at the moment. This is why I wanted people to rank the prospects.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 17, 2021 10:47:40 GMT -5
Baseball Refrence has that in reverse 7.1 bwar for Renfroe and 4.9 for Joc Pederson. The thing is Joc Pederson just had by far his worst season since 2018. If he gets 2 year 18 million after a -.1 bwar season, that just makes Renfroe more valuable. If Joc Pederson didn't have an OPS+ of 91 when he was traded, isn't it logical they would have got a lot more? He wasn't traded after his 2018 or 2019 season right? You pay and trade for future production, not past production. There was a time when Joc Pederson was more valuable, it's not last year though. I almost always stick to Baseball Refrence, if your a fangraph guy that's the difference. I'm not overvaluing him, you're saying Baseball Refrence is. I'd also add that Renfroe greatly improving against RHP in two of the last three years is big for me. That's a trend a lefty killer needs. Why were the Red Sox able to sign Renfroe for 1 year $3M then? The same reason Bradley got 2 years 24 million, people didn't discount the 2020 season. It didn't mean Bradley was awesome or Renfroe, Martinez or Benintendi were finished. It's why I throw it out no matter what happened, it's a small sample size and there was covid with a long break. Not close to a normal year.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 17, 2021 12:20:39 GMT -5
Everything you just described lowers his floor not his ceiling. That aside, of course we'd all like the trade better if he was a better prospect, but turns out Renfroe wasn't worth that. If the things you said weren't question marks he wouldn't be a 45. It's nice that you would have liked Gray so much in 2018, but we don't know what other 45 grade prospects were on the table in this case, it's very possible the Red Sox picked the one they see as having the highest upside. I rank him very risky, he basically has no floor at this point. I rank ceiling based on a prospects 5 tools, so I don't know how you can say it doesn't effect his ceiling. He's not a raw 17 year old prospect will all the tools that's yet to put things together. His lone really good tool is power at the moment. This is why I wanted people to rank the prospects. Likely can't stay at 3B, hit tool concerns, these are floor issues not ceiling ones. If he can stay at 3B and the hit tool isn't an issue then his power potential means he can be really good. However, if he can't hit a high fastball and has no position then we have a Michael Chavis. I'm not disagreeing he's risky, but it seems to me he and Hamilton are opposites in that Hamilton has a relatively high floor based on his speed, contact and versatility, but a lower ceiling in that he doesn't have the middle of the order potential Binelas does. If you want to say he's too risky for you fine, but I don't get how you can think that and also think a 45 pitching prospect who had never played above rookie ball was somehow less risky at the time, and the risk to me isn't about his ceiling it's about the floor. Also, 5 tools are overrated, if he's a middle of the order slugger that's an all-star ceiling regardless of the rest of it. Power and speed are not equally meaningful tools.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 17, 2021 15:02:11 GMT -5
I rank him very risky, he basically has no floor at this point. I rank ceiling based on a prospects 5 tools, so I don't know how you can say it doesn't effect his ceiling. He's not a raw 17 year old prospect will all the tools that's yet to put things together. His lone really good tool is power at the moment. This is why I wanted people to rank the prospects. Likely can't stay at 3B, hit tool concerns, these are floor issues not ceiling ones. If he can stay at 3B and the hit tool isn't an issue then his power potential means he can be really good. However, if he can't hit a high fastball and has no position then we have a Michael Chavis. I'm not disagreeing he's risky, but it seems to me he and Hamilton are opposites in that Hamilton has a relatively high floor based on his speed, contact and versatility, but a lower ceiling in that he doesn't have the middle of the order potential Binelas does. If you want to say he's too risky for you fine, but I don't get how you can think that and also think a 45 pitching prospect who had never played above rookie ball was somehow less risky at the time, and the risk to me isn't about his ceiling it's about the floor. Also, 5 tools are overrated, if he's a middle of the order slugger that's an all-star ceiling regardless of the rest of it. Power and speed are not equally meaningful tools. Please explain that to me, you've totally lost me. What do you have as the floor of Binelas with 29 games in low A ball? More like it might actually give him a floor and it certainly effects his ceiling. You do realize depending on what position and how much defensive value you generate the range for those guys is crazy right? You can be a 2-3 war DH or 10 bwar Trout. David Ortiz was one of the best hitters of his generation, look at his bwar totals. Now imagine his ceiling being above average at 3B and plus speed, that doesn't change his ceiling in your book? We might as well end this now because if you believe tools don't effect a players ceiling we can't have a good debate. www.redsminorleagues.com/2018/11/27/cincinnati-reds-12-prospect-josiah-gray/It walks you through Gray at the time he was traded. Very risky, yet that stuff and those results is exactly what you want. Live arm, athletic, biggest issues are refining a third pitch and building up innings. Those strikeout to walk rates, while limiting hits, with two above average pitches and he can locate his fastball his best pitch. Yeah I see a higher upside.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 17, 2021 16:21:40 GMT -5
Likely can't stay at 3B, hit tool concerns, these are floor issues not ceiling ones. If he can stay at 3B and the hit tool isn't an issue then his power potential means he can be really good. However, if he can't hit a high fastball and has no position then we have a Michael Chavis. I'm not disagreeing he's risky, but it seems to me he and Hamilton are opposites in that Hamilton has a relatively high floor based on his speed, contact and versatility, but a lower ceiling in that he doesn't have the middle of the order potential Binelas does. If you want to say he's too risky for you fine, but I don't get how you can think that and also think a 45 pitching prospect who had never played above rookie ball was somehow less risky at the time, and the risk to me isn't about his ceiling it's about the floor. Also, 5 tools are overrated, if he's a middle of the order slugger that's an all-star ceiling regardless of the rest of it. Power and speed are not equally meaningful tools. Please explain that to me, you've totally lost me. What do you have as the floor of Binelas with 29 games in low A ball? More like it might actually give him a floor and it certainly effects his ceiling. You do realize depending on what position and how much defensive value you generate the range for those guys is crazy right? You can be a 2-3 war DH or 10 bwar Trout. David Ortiz was one of the best hitters of his generation, look at his bwar totals. Now imagine his ceiling being above average at 3B and plus speed, that doesn't change his ceiling in your book? We might as well end this now because if you believe tools don't effect a players ceiling we can't have a good debate. www.redsminorleagues.com/2018/11/27/cincinnati-reds-12-prospect-josiah-gray/It walks you through Gray at the time he was traded. Very risky, yet that stuff and those results is exactly what you want. Live arm, athletic, biggest issues are refining a third pitch and building up innings. Those strikeout to walk rates, while limiting hits, with two above average pitches and he can locate his fastball his best pitch. Yeah I see a higher upside. I have the floor of Binelas as a guy who never makes the majors because his contact issues are bigger than expected. His ceiling is not capped by that or by the fact that he might not be able to play 3B though, because he also might be able to play it and play it well, that's all projection on his future body, and the contact issues might not manifest. Of course his ceiling is higher if he's also an amazing defender who can steal 100 bases, but you don't talk about any minor leaguer like his ceiling is Mike Trout. The potential to be a middle of the order bat is just about as high a ceiling as you give any minor leaguer this side of the guys who have already established themselves as elite. We're getting off track anyways, if he was an elite defender and had the offensive potential he has he would be too good a prospect to be traded for Hunter Renfroe. As for Gray "Biggest issues are refining a third pitch and building up innings" yeah aka his risk is he becomes a reliever, or that he has to get Tommy John and never pitches recovers right. It's fine if you happen to prefer this type of prospect but we're going down a pointless rabbit hole there because we have no evidence someone similar to Gray was on the table and turned down. I'm not even arguing Binelas now is a better prospect than Gray was then, I didn't follow the Reds system and any analysis now is colored by what has happened. My only point is he is a similar type of prospect with a similar type of upside (starting pitcher vs. starting position player) and the more guys like this you get in the system, the better your chances one of them rockets up, like Gray did.
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Post by jmei on Dec 18, 2021 20:56:33 GMT -5
I moved all the discussion about posting styles and repetition to its own thread in the off-topic forum.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Dec 22, 2021 21:07:43 GMT -5
Here’s a surprising comment in a MLBTR chat just now: “Who's your breakout player in each league for next year?”
Anthony Franco 8:43 “Alex Verdugo in the AL. NL, maybe we get a star-level season from Jazz Chisholm”
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Dec 23, 2021 12:20:59 GMT -5
These long-winded discussions of the meaning of terms that almost everyone agrees on are fascinating.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Dec 24, 2021 15:28:23 GMT -5
These long-winded discussions of the meaning of terms that almost everyone agrees on are fascinating. I keep opening this thread thinking it might be something I want to read about. Totally on me, I get it.
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