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2022 SoxProspects Ranking Updates
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 6, 2022 14:39:06 GMT -5
I get there were a couple guys that jumped him and the stats don’t tell the whole story but man, I can’t seem to make sense of Blaze Jordan falling in the rankings the way he did.
On the other hand I’ve been a huge Paulino guy, so glad he’s climbing
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Post by Addam603 on Aug 6, 2022 14:46:47 GMT -5
Adding five top 30 prospects over the course of the draft and the trade deadline has really done a lot for the depth of the farm system. Let a few of them develop into the high end prospect types and this will be a top 10 farm system sooner rather than later.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 6, 2022 15:09:48 GMT -5
I'm not saying it's not justified, but Bleis' grade range being literally the entire range of the scale is kind of funny.
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Post by ghostofrussgibson on Aug 6, 2022 15:27:34 GMT -5
Who'd been our #4?
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Post by incandenza on Aug 6, 2022 15:29:38 GMT -5
Jarren Duran. You can see it in the rankings history (which is a little hard to find, but the link is on the front page on the left side, pretty far down).
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Post by Mike Andrews on Aug 6, 2022 15:33:08 GMT -5
Bleis ceiling to 8 is new. Leaving open that shadow of a chance that he is franchise-player elite. Very exciting, just remember that's not the projection. He also still has a 2 floor, although that could get bumped up very soon.
Rankings are based on a mix of projection, ceiling, and proximity. Mix of art and science. One of our over-arching goal posts is: if all of these players were entered in a draft, who would you pick first? Reminder that the site ranking is an average of the personal rankings of me, Chris, Ian, and James - after about a 10-day process and discussion at the end of each month. We didn't get to discuss as much as we'd like to have this past week.
Nortchut was on the radar just not in our collective top 60 this month. Swing and miss concerns.
Koss dropped from 30 to 40 in the rankings. 4 draft picks and 2 acquisitions entered the rankings ahead of him. Perales, Rodriguez-Cruz, Dobbins, and Paez got big jumps. That's 10. We don't think any less of him than we did last month.
Same thing for Blaze Jordan. Dropped 4 spots. 3 new players added ahead of him, plus Thad Ward got a small jump. Jordan's grade didn't change.
Yorke was #4 last month and still is #4 this month.
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Post by bosoxnation on Aug 6, 2022 15:45:28 GMT -5
Adding five top 30 prospects over the course of the draft and the trade deadline has really done a lot for the depth of the farm system. Let a few of them develop into the high end prospect types and this will be a top 10 farm system sooner rather than later. I’m pretty sure we’re ranked 10th already
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Aug 6, 2022 19:12:09 GMT -5
Surprised and excited Seabold is still at 12
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 6, 2022 19:15:53 GMT -5
Quick observations:
- Binelas dropped a few spots, JBJ got released and Renfroe raked in the last two weeks. Not a great time for the JBJ-Renfroe trade. - I'm surprised to see Seabold hanging at 12. In his ML appearances, he's looked like a guy without enough explosiveness or ability to locate the stuff he does have to amount to anything. - Going strictly on memory, I think Mikey Romero is slotting in higher than most other R1 picks have in their SP rankings debuts with obvious exceptions, such as MM.
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 6, 2022 19:48:51 GMT -5
Imagine if Bleis ends up cracking the top 100 in Baseball America.
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Post by Jimmy on Aug 6, 2022 19:50:52 GMT -5
Imagine if Bleis ends up cracking the top 100 in Baseball America. Mayer, Bello, Casas, Yorke, Rafaela, Bleis When’s the last time we’ve had 6 Top100 including 4 Top50?
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Post by Jimmy on Aug 6, 2022 20:08:17 GMT -5
Imagine if Bleis ends up cracking the top 100 in Baseball America. Mayer, Bello, Casas, Yorke, Rafaela, Bleis When’s the last time we’ve had 6 Top100 including 4 Top50? To answer my own question, historically (all BA, side note it’s very interesting scrolling through old rankings and seeing how everyone panned out): 2022: 12. Mayer, 22. Bello, 27. Casas, 48. Yorke, 81. Rafaela 2021: 15. Casas, 29. Mayer, 37. Duran, 63. Yorke 2020: 65. Casas, 73. Dalbec, 82. Downs 2019: 65. Casas, 81. Mata, 83. Dalbec 2018: No Top 100 2017: 1. Benintendi, 18. Devers, 43. Groome 2016: 3. Moncada, 15. Benintendi, 18. Devers, 19. Espinoza, 89. Kopech 2015: 17. Swihart, 21. Castillo, 44. Owens, 59. ERod, 72. Margot, 82. Johnson, 99. Devers
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 6, 2022 20:15:15 GMT -5
Mayer, Bello, Casas, Yorke, Rafaela, Bleis When’s the last time we’ve had 6 Top100 including 4 Top50? To answer my own question, historically (all BA, side note it’s very interesting scrolling through old rankings and seeing how everyone panned out): 2022: 12. Mayer, 22. Bello, 27. Casas, 48. Yorke, 81. Rafaela 2021: 15. Casas, 29. Mayer, 37. Duran, 63. Yorke 2020: 65. Casas, 73. Dalbec, 82. Downs 2019: 65. Casas, 81. Mata, 83. Dalbec 2018: No Top 100 2017: 1. Benintendi, 18. Devers, 43. Groome 2016: 3. Moncada, 15. Benintendi, 18. Devers, 19. Espinoza, 89. Kopech 2015: 17. Swihart, 21. Castillo, 44. Owens, 59. ERod, 72. Margot, 82. Johnson, 99. Devers 2015, woof
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 7, 2022 8:09:19 GMT -5
Imagine if Bleis ends up cracking the top 100 in Baseball America. I will think less of them if he doesn't.
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Post by kwodes on Aug 7, 2022 8:51:52 GMT -5
Imagine if Bleis ends up cracking the top 100 in Baseball America. I will think less of them if he doesn't. How close is Perales to being on "Top 100" radar? What boxes does he need to check? Keep dominating at higher level?
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Post by bosoxnation on Aug 7, 2022 10:04:01 GMT -5
Rafaela should be 5th with Bleis 6th. Really it doesn’t matter but he’s my favorite prospect behind Mayer and he’s 1 of the 5 in the top 100 so to have him 8th is weird.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 7, 2022 10:14:01 GMT -5
Adding five top 30 prospects over the course of the draft and the trade deadline has really done a lot for the depth of the farm system. Let a few of them develop into the high end prospect types and this will be a top 10 farm system sooner rather than later. I’m pretty sure we’re ranked 10th already Always depends on who's doing the rankings. We can cherry pick our faves or pick 5-10 ranking systems that we think are relatively fair - I mean it's subjective - and look at mean position and average position. Or we can say, "Well A had us at 10, so we're 10!" ignoring that B had us at 20 and C had us at 17 and D had us at 13. Or we can also look at these other rankings and see how many Sox players are in their top 100-150 and try to figure out if quality outmatches quantity - i.e. is the Sox system ranked 10th but a team ranked 15th has more players in the top 100 and which would you rather have? Again, it's very subjective. Once everyone has the Sox in the top 10 systems then it would be fair to say it's a top 10 system. But to cherry-pick the top ranking and ignore the others is rather disingenuous.
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Post by bosoxnation on Aug 7, 2022 10:29:02 GMT -5
I’m pretty sure we’re ranked 10th already Always depends on who's doing the rankings. We can cherry pick our faves or pick 5-10 ranking systems that we think are relatively fair - I mean it's subjective - and look at mean position and average position. Or we can say, "Well A had us at 10, so we're 10!" ignoring that B had us at 20 and C had us at 17 and D had us at 13. Or we can also look at these other rankings and see how many Sox players are in their top 100-150 and try to figure out if quality outmatches quantity - i.e. is the Sox system ranked 10th but a team ranked 15th has more players in the top 100 and which would you rather have? Again, it's very subjective. Once everyone has the Sox in the top 10 systems then it would be fair to say it's a top 10 system. But to cherry-pick the top ranking and ignore the others is rather disingenuous. I see that this is a very important subject for you. For that reason only I regret saying what I said. I guess we are not top 10 until every website on the internet says so.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 7, 2022 10:35:04 GMT -5
To answer my own question, historically (all BA, side note it’s very interesting scrolling through old rankings and seeing how everyone panned out): 2022: 12. Mayer, 22. Bello, 27. Casas, 48. Yorke, 81. Rafaela 2021: 15. Casas, 29. Mayer, 37. Duran, 63. Yorke 2020: 65. Casas, 73. Dalbec, 82. Downs 2019: 65. Casas, 81. Mata, 83. Dalbec2018: No Top 100 2017: 1. Benintendi, 18. Devers, 43. Groome 2016: 3. Moncada, 15. Benintendi, 18. Devers, 19. Espinoza, 89. Kopech 2015: 17. Swihart, 21. Castillo, 44. Owens, 59. ERod, 72. Margot, 82. Johnson, 99. Devers 2015, woof This is fun, but it also shows that certain top-ranked players were over-valued by the marked and under-evaluated by the Sox and should've been sold high on. Consider the bolded above. If these were in BA's top 100 lists, then it proves the extensive data that, no matter how highly thought of, many top 100 prospects fail to make MLB or fail when they do. This should always be the sobering corollary to anyone filling out the MLB roster in 2-3 years with a team of their favorite homegrown players. It rarely happens. No one has a crystal ball, and many good GMs and organizations fail to sell high on prospects who are over-evaluated by the industry. But very good to excellent GMs not drinking their own kool aide know more often than not who is over-evaluated by the industry and when to trade high on these guys. I say this as someone who saw Duran and Dalbec, and Lars Anderson, Blake Swihart, Ryan Lavarnway, Rubby De La Rosa and Garrin Checcini, a few times in minors and believed all would be average to above-average MLB players. Conversely, I saw Jeter Downs, Cole Brannen, Henry Owens, Sam Travis, Alan Weber, Trey Ball, Teddy Stankiewicz, and a couple of others who people here (and many in the professional projection industry) loved and I couldn't understand why.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 7, 2022 10:36:04 GMT -5
Always depends on who's doing the rankings. We can cherry pick our faves or pick 5-10 ranking systems that we think are relatively fair - I mean it's subjective - and look at mean position and average position. Or we can say, "Well A had us at 10, so we're 10!" ignoring that B had us at 20 and C had us at 17 and D had us at 13. Or we can also look at these other rankings and see how many Sox players are in their top 100-150 and try to figure out if quality outmatches quantity - i.e. is the Sox system ranked 10th but a team ranked 15th has more players in the top 100 and which would you rather have? Again, it's very subjective. Once everyone has the Sox in the top 10 systems then it would be fair to say it's a top 10 system. But to cherry-pick the top ranking and ignore the others is rather disingenuous. I see that this is a very important subject for you. For that reason only I regret saying what I said. I guess we are not top 10 until every website on the internet says so. So it's OK to cherry-pick if it supports my point? Got it.
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Post by jaffinator on Aug 7, 2022 12:44:17 GMT -5
I mean the quality of a ranking site is actually not subjective. It's objective but hard to monitor. You can check how well past lists reflect prospect success. That's difficult, but only a bit subjective (what constitutes a successful prospect for instance). And a system that is ranked in the top 10 by every single ranking system is probably in reality a top 5 system if you simply average the rankings.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,787
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Post by nomar on Aug 7, 2022 12:52:58 GMT -5
Rafaela should be 5th with Bleis 6th. Really it doesn’t matter but he’s my favorite prospect behind Mayer and he’s 1 of the 5 in the top 100 so to have him 8th is weird. You can put Yorke, Rafaela, and Bleis in any order now without being ‘wrong’ IMO. Yorke started highest but is obviously having the worst season and didn’t have a long track record to begin with. Bleis is tooled up, but is very young/high variance. Rafaela has a great glove, but his approach gives you caution. Point being that they’re very different players with different things carrying their prospect status.
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Post by Addam603 on Aug 7, 2022 13:45:53 GMT -5
Where’s Stephen Scott on the list? He’s done nothing but hit since he got promoted to Portland. Homered again today. He’s never had a K% north of 20% or a walk % south of 13.9% in a full season. Currently hitting .269 with a .934 OPS in over 100 ABs in the high minors. His struggles in Greenville this year can be attributed partially to a career low .216 BABIP. Unless he’s an absolute butcher behind the plate, that definitely deserves a top 60 ranking at least. Have there been any reports on how he’s looked at catcher this year being there full time?
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Post by bosox904 on Aug 7, 2022 20:48:40 GMT -5
Mayer, Bello, Casas, Yorke, Rafaela, Bleis When’s the last time we’ve had 6 Top100 including 4 Top50? To answer my own question, historically (all BA, side note it’s very interesting scrolling through old rankings and seeing how everyone panned out): 2022: 12. Mayer, 22. Bello, 27. Casas, 48. Yorke, 81. Rafaela 2021: 15. Casas, 29. Mayer, 37. Duran, 63. Yorke 2020: 65. Casas, 73. Dalbec, 82. Downs 2019: 65. Casas, 81. Mata, 83. Dalbec 2018: No Top 100 2017: 1. Benintendi, 18. Devers, 43. Groome 2016: 3. Moncada, 15. Benintendi, 18. Devers, 19. Espinoza, 89. Kopech 2015: 17. Swihart, 21. Castillo, 44. Owens, 59. ERod, 72. Margot, 82. Johnson, 99. Devers Who is Castillo? I didn't see him on the Sox list for BA I found.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 7, 2022 20:59:44 GMT -5
To answer my own question, historically (all BA, side note it’s very interesting scrolling through old rankings and seeing how everyone panned out): 2022: 12. Mayer, 22. Bello, 27. Casas, 48. Yorke, 81. Rafaela 2021: 15. Casas, 29. Mayer, 37. Duran, 63. Yorke 2020: 65. Casas, 73. Dalbec, 82. Downs 2019: 65. Casas, 81. Mata, 83. Dalbec 2018: No Top 100 2017: 1. Benintendi, 18. Devers, 43. Groome 2016: 3. Moncada, 15. Benintendi, 18. Devers, 19. Espinoza, 89. Kopech 2015: 17. Swihart, 21. Castillo, 44. Owens, 59. ERod, 72. Margot, 82. Johnson, 99. Devers Who is Castillo? I didn't see him on the Sox list for BA I found. Probably Rusney
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