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2022 40-Man Roster Discussion
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 13, 2022 17:35:13 GMT -5
7th org change the last two years, I guess everyone wants to get their hands on a guy with a delivery like that. Results not so hot those two years
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Post by greenmonster on Oct 13, 2022 18:01:11 GMT -5
Can someone explain this one?
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 13, 2022 18:03:56 GMT -5
Can someone explain this one? Proverbial through stuff at the wall argument? I don't know either. Not that I think Bazardo ever turns into a late inning arm type of guy but Seem like they could have DFAd someone else instead of Bazardo if they wanted this reed guy.
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Post by greenmonster on Oct 13, 2022 18:22:16 GMT -5
Can someone explain this one? Proverbial through stuff at the wall argument? I don't know either. Not that I think Bazardo ever turns into a late inning arm type of guy but Seem like they could have DFAd someone else instead of Bazardo if they wanted this reed guy. Not sure what they see in Reed......30yo, doesn't strike out alot of guys (7.9 K/9), walks a fair share (3.5 BB/9)
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Oct 13, 2022 18:39:08 GMT -5
Another arm slot guy they’ll try and play around with
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 13, 2022 19:10:45 GMT -5
Proverbial through stuff at the wall argument? I don't know either. Not that I think Bazardo ever turns into a late inning arm type of guy but Seem like they could have DFAd someone else instead of Bazardo if they wanted this reed guy. Not sure what they see in Reed......30yo, doesn't strike out alot of guys (7.9 K/9), walks a fair share (3.5 BB/9) Yeah, not the end of the world, but I don't see how Reed is an upgrade on Bazardo. I'd rather have Bazardo than Reed. Bazardo, in small glimpses, has pitched fine. Reed is 30 and has never pitched particularly well. I really don't get it. I hope Reed is on to his 8th organization soon for a better player to occupy that spot on the 40 man roster instead.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Oct 13, 2022 19:18:45 GMT -5
Not sure what they see in Reed......30yo, doesn't strike out alot of guys (7.9 K/9), walks a fair share (3.5 BB/9) Yeah, not the end of the world, but I don't see how Reed is an upgrade on Bazardo. I'd rather have Bazardo than Reed. Bazardo, in small glimpses, has pitched fine. Reed is 30 and has never pitched particularly well. I really don't get it. I hope Reed is on to his 8th organization soon for a better player to occupy that spot on the 40 man roster instead. Highly doubt they have any plans to have him on the 40 for long. Pretty sure they'll try to move him off the 40 and get him to Worcester
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 13, 2022 20:15:02 GMT -5
Yeah, not the end of the world, but I don't see how Reed is an upgrade on Bazardo. I'd rather have Bazardo than Reed. Bazardo, in small glimpses, has pitched fine. Reed is 30 and has never pitched particularly well. I really don't get it. I hope Reed is on to his 8th organization soon for a better player to occupy that spot on the 40 man roster instead. Highly doubt they have any plans to have him on the 40 for long. Pretty sure they'll try to move him off the 40 and get him to Worcester I'd rather they have tried that maneuver with Bazardo instead (again) and maybe sneak him back to Worceseter and if they lose him....you can find 100 other guys like Jake Reed to stock AAA/emergency call-up. But like I said, I don't really get it, but it's not really that big a deal.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Oct 13, 2022 20:46:18 GMT -5
Highly doubt they have any plans to have him on the 40 for long. Pretty sure they'll try to move him off the 40 and get him to Worcester I'd rather they have tried that maneuver with Bazardo instead (again) and maybe sneak him back to Worceseter and if they lose him....you can find 100 other guys like Jake Reed to stock AAA/emergency call-up. But like I said, I don't really get it, but it's not really that big a deal. They’re going to try to do that with both guys Bazardo is 27, he’s basically one of those 100 other guys like Jake Reed to throw at the wall and see what sticks. I don’t think either are/were long for the 40 man
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 14, 2022 6:46:59 GMT -5
Highly doubt they have any plans to have him on the 40 for long. Pretty sure they'll try to move him off the 40 and get him to Worcester I'd rather they have tried that maneuver with Bazardo instead (again) and maybe sneak him back to Worceseter and if they lose him....you can find 100 other guys like Jake Reed to stock AAA/emergency call-up. But like I said, I don't really get it, but it's not really that big a deal. But that's exactly what they just did, right?
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 14, 2022 17:16:56 GMT -5
I'd rather they have tried that maneuver with Bazardo instead (again) and maybe sneak him back to Worceseter and if they lose him....you can find 100 other guys like Jake Reed to stock AAA/emergency call-up. But like I said, I don't really get it, but it's not really that big a deal. But that's exactly what they just did, right? I didn't explain myself well. What I meant was that I'd prefer they keep Bazardo on the 40 and if they really needed to clear him off they try that maneuver, but like you said if they didn't now odds are they would be later on anyways. I'm not high on Reed based on his age and lack of overwhelming numbers - if it were an either/or situation I prefer Bazardo, but the only thing I stated clearly was that the difference isn't that much anyways. Hopefully either way they have better options for the 40 soon.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 14, 2022 18:13:49 GMT -5
Here's the thing - are you comfortable committing to Taylor as your primary LHRP entering next year? If not, then you need to strongly consider non-tendering him. This presents a logical fallacy. Taylor doesn't need to be the primary LHRP in order to be on the 40-man roster and if he's not, there's no reason to consider non-tendering him if he's still one of the top 8 relievers in the bullpen. Taylor would have been the best lefty reliever on the Red Sox this year if he had been healthy and approached the numbers posted in either of his two healthy seasons. But given his past health issues and previous limited innings cap, there's no way Chaim has him as the top projected lefty going into 2023. The Red Sox will be looking to have 2-3 lefty relievers on next years' team. If they were to cut Taylor, then they would be looking for a lefty relief pitcher just like Taylor. It doesn't make sense to create another need which will have to be replaced unless/until they actually sign a player to take his spot who is better/healthier. I've advocated for Andrew Chafin (assuming he opts out) to be the Red Sox top bullpen target, and would also like to see Hill retained as a starter/reliever hybrid option. Taylor would be the #2/#3 lefty depending on Hill's role. He's had two very good seasons in his only 2 healthy seasons and has 3 years of team control remaining on a very affordable contract while filling a role which is a major need for the 2023 team. I don't see why he would be cut simply due to his struggles in rehab this past season. Unless he's cooked and management is certain that he can't pitch at a major league level ever again, you keep him AT LEAST until you've replaced him with a 3rd reliever - then you try to sneak him through waivers as a depth 4th LHRP.
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Post by GyIantosca on Oct 14, 2022 18:32:16 GMT -5
I wonder if the FO will give Faste another chance as a hitting coach.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Oct 14, 2022 19:08:40 GMT -5
I wonder if the FO will give Faste another chance as a hitting coach. They already announced everyone will be back
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 15, 2022 8:13:00 GMT -5
Here's the thing - are you comfortable committing to Taylor as your primary LHRP entering next year? If not, then you need to strongly consider non-tendering him. This presents a logical fallacy. Taylor doesn't need to be the primary LHRP in order to be on the 40-man roster and if he's not, there's no reason to consider non-tendering him if he's still one of the top 8 relievers in the bullpen. Taylor would have been the best lefty reliever on the Red Sox this year if he had been healthy and approached the numbers posted in either of his two healthy seasons. But given his past health issues and previous limited innings cap, there's no way Chaim has him as the top projected lefty going into 2023. The Red Sox will be looking to have 2-3 lefty relievers on next years' team. If they were to cut Taylor, then they would be looking for a lefty relief pitcher just like Taylor. It doesn't make sense to create another need which will have to be replaced unless/until they actually sign a player to take his spot who is better/healthier. I've advocated for Andrew Chafin (assuming he opts out) to be the Red Sox top bullpen target, and would also like to see Hill retained as a starter/reliever hybrid option. Taylor would be the #2/#3 lefty depending on Hill's role. He's had two very good seasons in his only 2 healthy seasons and has 3 years of team control remaining on a very affordable contract while filling a role which is a major need for the 2023 team. I don't see why he would be cut simply due to his struggles in rehab this past season. Unless he's cooked and management is certain that he can't pitch at a major league level ever again, you keep him AT LEAST until you've replaced him with a 3rd reliever - then you try to sneak him through waivers as a depth 4th LHRP. I was alluding to the fact (but should have explained - my bad) that they may not have room for him on the 40-man if he's not though. If there are no trades and they make the 5 or so MLB additions they're likely to make without trading players I'd project to be on the 40 to start next year, it gets very tight when you start to look at guys like Taylor.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 15, 2022 12:42:47 GMT -5
I was alluding to the fact (but should have explained - my bad) that they may not have room for him on the 40-man if he's not though. If there are no trades and they make the 5 or so MLB additions they're likely to make without trading players I'd project to be on the 40 to start next year, it gets very tight when you start to look at guys like Taylor. This makes sense if the Red Sox plan to go into 2023 with only 1 LHRP - do you think that's likely? I'm operating with assumption that they have at least 2, if not 3. On a side note: there are at least 3 players on your keep list who I would let go before a 'healthy' Taylor.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Oct 15, 2022 14:48:34 GMT -5
I was alluding to the fact (but should have explained - my bad) that they may not have room for him on the 40-man if he's not though. If there are no trades and they make the 5 or so MLB additions they're likely to make without trading players I'd project to be on the 40 to start next year, it gets very tight when you start to look at guys like Taylor. This makes sense if the Red Sox plan to go into 2023 with only 1 LHRP - do you think that's likely? I'm operating with assumption that they have at least 2, if not 3. On a side note: there are at least 3 players on your keep list who I would let go before a 'healthy' Taylor. If Taylor is what he was pre-injury he’ll no doubt get a 40 man spot. The problem is he looked like a shell of himself after rehabbing the injury and returning and you cannot make the assumption he’s going to be fine going forward. It’s not like he came back and was trying to pitch through an injury- he was deemed healthy and was getting smoked by minor league hitters. Hopefully he can make it back and revert to what he was but we cannot operate under that assumption and with a 40 man crunch it’s probably not worth the gamble. We shall see what they think
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 15, 2022 17:01:05 GMT -5
I was alluding to the fact (but should have explained - my bad) that they may not have room for him on the 40-man if he's not though. If there are no trades and they make the 5 or so MLB additions they're likely to make without trading players I'd project to be on the 40 to start next year, it gets very tight when you start to look at guys like Taylor. This makes sense if the Red Sox plan to go into 2023 with only 1 LHRP - do you think that's likely? I'm operating with assumption that they have at least 2, if not 3. On a side note: there are at least 3 players on your keep list who I would let go before a 'healthy' Taylor. I'm curious who the 3 are.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 16, 2022 2:53:52 GMT -5
This makes sense if the Red Sox plan to go into 2023 with only 1 LHRP - do you think that's likely? I'm operating with assumption that they have at least 2, if not 3. On a side note: there are at least 3 players on your keep list who I would let go before a 'healthy' Taylor. I'm curious who the 3 are. Wilyer AbreuThere's the temptation to add him due to the recent trade, but there will be a long list of more highly touted prospects available (there was last year). I find it unlikely a team would stash him on their 26-man roster for a season over other options, so he would have to contribute right away. He can draw walks and has some power but wasn't able to crack .250 in AA this season so he likely needs at least a year before he can contribute in MLB as a hitter. Given that his defense and baserunning are fairly average, and he doesn't project as a true CFer, he would be a poor choice as a situational backup. If I'm the Red Sox, I take the gamble that he sneaks past the rule-5 draft. Ronaldo HernandezWe're hoping he gets another option year, and he is needed as a 3rd catcher, but his defense is still reportedly lacking and he's looking unlikely to win a 26-man spot in 2024, which means he won't be around for more than a year. It wouldn't surprise me if there are similar options that don't currently require a 40-man spot. It's also possible he makes it through waivers during the crunch. Rob RefsnyderEverybody loves him, he's a great story and performed well in 177 PAs. But it was his seventh shot at the big leagues and the only one where he was productive. Unfortunately his .394 BABIP (.305 career) is not sustainable and his pronounced splits (.359 vs .270) with heavy platoon usage show a player who's best-case outcome seems to be a right-handed platoon OFer who is solid defensively. That's useful for the 2023 Red Sox and in a perfect world I'd like him to have the inside track on a backup OF role for next season, especially as his power numbers took a jump starting in 2019. But given that he will be 32 next year, and that 3 teams have let him go since that power spike, I can see him passing through waivers and the Red Sox asking him to earn the 40-man spot in spring training. Back to the point on Taylor: The Red Sox had two lefties in addition to Taylor to start this past season so I can't imagine they would only have 1 this year. If they think he has any chance of returning to form next year, they should at least keep him until they fill the 2nd LHRP spot. The 26-man roles outweigh the 40-man spot.
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Post by scottysmalls on Oct 16, 2022 9:41:24 GMT -5
I'm curious who the 3 are. Wilyer AbreuThere's the temptation to add him due to the recent trade, but there will be a long list of more highly touted prospects available (there was last year). I find it unlikely a team would stash him on their 26-man roster for a season over other options, so he would have to contribute right away. He can draw walks and has some power but wasn't able to crack .250 in AA this season so he likely needs at least a year before he can contribute in MLB as a hitter. Given that his defense and baserunning are fairly average, and he doesn't project as a true CFer, he would be a poor choice as a situational backup. If I'm the Red Sox, I take the gamble that he sneaks past the rule-5 draft. Ronaldo HernandezWe're hoping he gets another option year, and he is needed as a 3rd catcher, but his defense is still reportedly lacking and he's looking unlikely to win a 26-man spot in 2024, which means he won't be around for more than a year. It wouldn't surprise me if there are similar options that don't currently require a 40-man spot. It's also possible he makes it through waivers during the crunch. Rob RefsnyderEverybody loves him, he's a great story and performed well in 177 PAs. But it was his seventh shot at the big leagues and the only one where he was productive. Unfortunately his .394 BABIP (.305 career) is not sustainable and his pronounced splits (.359 vs .270) with heavy platoon usage show a player who's best-case outcome seems to be a right-handed platoon OFer who is solid defensively. That's useful for the 2023 Red Sox and in a perfect world I'd like him to have the inside track on a backup OF role for next season, especially as his power numbers took a jump starting in 2019. But given that he will be 32 next year, and that 3 teams have let him go since that power spike, I can see him passing through waivers and the Red Sox asking him to earn the 40-man spot in spring training. Back to the point on Taylor: The Red Sox had two lefties in addition to Taylor to start this past season so I can't imagine they would only have 1 this year. If they think he has any chance of returning to form next year, they should at least keep him until they fill the 2nd LHRP spot. The 26-man roles outweigh the 40-man spot. Wow I totally disagree with any of these three, but Taylor over Refsnyder feels wild to me. Unless the Red Sox can sell high on him and get something Refsnyder is going to be penciled in for a decent number of at bats next year and Taylor might never be good again.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 16, 2022 10:17:04 GMT -5
Ronaldo is getting claimed for sure. Go on MLBTR and look at some of the catchers failing to pass through waivers, including the guy we just got.
Robo umps might be coming in 2024 which would dramatically improve his outlook
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Oct 16, 2022 11:07:53 GMT -5
Taylor over Refsnyder would be wildly irresponsible
Yeah the BABIP is unsustainable, his ability to hit lefties on the other hand is VERY sustainable and he does it better than a heavy majority of the league. He can play all 3 OF positions capably. He makes peanuts. He’s a perfect bench OF
To punt on him to bring in a one inning reliever that we aren’t sure can put away AA hitters anymore is BANANAS. He was throwing 90 and gave up 20 hits in 12 innings, and most weren’t of the cheap variety. Totally tattooed. If he comes into camp throwing 95 again then maybe we can revisit the discussion but if he’s not back to what he was he’s not worth rostering. You let him try and figure things out off the 40 man- teams aren’t gonna be claiming him with the way he looked most recently
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 16, 2022 18:02:34 GMT -5
Yeah I really disagree about all three of those.
You don't trade for Abreu intending to expose him to Rule 5, and I take Hernández and Refsnyder over Taylor in a heartbeat. No chance Hernández clears, and Refsnyder had some of the best batted ball data in the system before he came up, so I disagree with the thought that he can't repeat what he did this year. As a fourth OF, you're playing him only in the right matchups anyway.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 16, 2022 19:45:21 GMT -5
Refsnyder's BABIP was 26 points ahead of Paul Goldschmidt, who led the majors, this past season. In terms of the splits - his BABIP vs lefties last year was .444. Thinking he may be a capable backup next year is reasonable but thinking he can repeat what he did this past year seems like wishful thinking.
Choosing whether to expose a player to the rule 5 draft based on when/how you acquired them is poor management. As it seems incredibly unlikely that Abreu would stick on a 26-man roster next year, it makes sense to trade for him and keep him in the minors for another year before adding him.
Let's put it another way: If a team had traded for Brainer Bonaci would you be arguing that they should protect him, even though you're arguing that the Red Sox currently shouldn't protect him? The slight risk he could be taken in the rule-5 draft is likely what made Abreu available in a rental trade to begin with, so it can be argued that the risk was already built into the deal, perhaps at both ends.
We don't know what we will have in Taylor next year and I can understand wanting to replace him due to the risk, but cutting him now just to later cut whomever takes his 40-man spot when the Red Sox acquire his replacement, just doesn't make sense. You only cut him now if you're 100% sure he can't contribute next year and keeping the spot is pointless - but I don't think any of us can say that. This guy is only 29 and was worth 1 fWAR as a LHRP just a year ago.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Oct 16, 2022 20:57:42 GMT -5
If what we saw last holds true then Abreu is much more likely to stick on a 26 man roster than Taylor is
I understand that we have the thinking that Taylor was injured last year- the problem is that he was cleared to play again and looked like crap when he did so, to the point where the Sox opted to not put him on the roster when his rehab had run out
I don’t think it would be smart asset management to keep a 1 inning guy who last threw 90 getting shelled by AA hitters over a guy some view as a possible starting OF (who they clearly like)
Pitchers can fall off a cliff, it doesn’t take much unfortunately. Hopefully that’s not what happened here but it would be very unsurprising
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